Mid Atlantic Weather Discussions: October 2005

Sunday, October 23, 2005

10/23 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

WOW! A phasing system seems to be in the works after I was pretty certain we would not be in this scenario. The effects on us are definitely COOL and breezy to downright windy! Wilma and Tropical Storm (Now Depression) Alpha should team up to produce a pretty impressive wind event!

Summary: It is going to be downright chilly, if not COLD tomorrow! Highs in many areas will struggle to get out of the 40s! I am not banking on it, but the dynamics combining with Wilma as she become extratropical and merges with the frontal boundary off the east coast give me some deep down wondering if snow gets involved (though very wet) in the higher elevations! If you did not know, parts of New England did get their first elevation snows today. The Nor’easter tomorrow through Tuesday will likely be most known for its winds and not its heavy rains! There is a chance we could see about .5 to 1 inch of rain tomorrow into Early Tuesday.

Tropics: What can you say! Tropical storm Alpha (Now a depression) gave us number 23 of named storms? Are we done? Well, I am not totally sure, but the pattern moves away from favorable patern.

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 23 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Thursday, October 20, 2005

10/20 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Wild Tropical Season continues as Wilma takes aim at Florida and eventually the northeast. Our pleasant weather is going to be replaced by rainy conditions, then windy, then pretty cool. Long term I see a return to milder conditions, but some promising signs for winter. (See disclaimer at the end)

Summary: Wilma’s historic pressure of 882mb yesterday will be her strongest. Though I can see she will likely come ashore as a Category three storm in the Southwestern part of Florida, her next act will be a linking or partial phasing with a digging upper air low through the Midwest. This could do several things for us next week. Of immediate concern, there is the chance that areas could see some Thunderstorms today, and isolated Hail and or high winds will be something to watch. Back to Wilma.. She will race across Florida and then off shore up the eastern Seaboard. Her Linkage will spill energy into the trough mentioned above and induce bombogenesis off the east coast. This could mean some heavy rains in the northeast again, and we will be the edge of some of this. Upper Maryland and northward could really get soaked, but 1-3” rains may also hit our region. High winds could accompany this system and that could mean some tree damage and power outages. This being said, we will miss the worst effects that will be felt in New England. Similar to Hurricane Lilli in 1996 (See Weather America for same thoughts at http://weatheramerica.blogspot.com ). So we will have a breezy start to the week and then a cool down that could cause frost in some areas. This is perfectly normal and should be expected this time of year. Long term, there will be a return to milder air as the cold in the east looks to be transient. That being said, there are signs that the Upper level pattern may change and actually provide a better chance of Snow and colder air in Canada. This is VERY important to our winter outlook. I will keep watching!

Tropics: Wilma could be the last storm for a while in the Atlantic as the tropics appear to be headed for turbulent times. That being said, another storm or two would not surprise me! The next would be called Alpha. Wilma also is historic in that this season is the first in history to have had 3 Category five systems! What an amazing year.

Looking Out for Winter: This will be my new area to start on the Winter Outlook trail! This years major factors for winter continue to be Warm Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters, the lack of build up of Snow in Canada, and cold water off the Pacific NW coast. Current Snow cover in Canada is really low http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif . My hope is to see some real reversals of this in the next week and a half. If not, I see real signs of a warmer winter coming true. Next, the warm waters in the Atlantic SHOULD help fuel systems as the come up the east coast, so, though we may have fewer snow storms, some could be huge! Last, the Pacific NW water temps have a real cold pool. This offsets the warm Atlantic waters a bit as storms will not be riding a favorable jet when they hit the west coast that would allow digging in the east. So far, this has not been an issue based on the last drought buster and Wilma’s linkage. But the changes to new patterns could show us a lot.. Will keep watching!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 23 members. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

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Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Quick Note! WILMA Strongest Atlantic Storm in History!

Only 9 Storms Stronger World Wide!

With the 884 reading! 175mph winds

Full list here http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2005/10/list-of-strongest-typhoons-and.html

1. Typhoon Tip - 870 mb, 1979
2. Typhoon Zeb - 872 mb, 1998
3. Typhoon Gay - 872 mb, 1992
4. Typhoon Keith - 872 mb, 1997
5. Typhoon Joan - 872 mb, 1997
6. Typhoon Ivan - 872 mb, 1997
7. Typhoon Forrest - 876 mb, 1983
8. Typhoon Faxai - 879 mb, 2001
9. Typhoon Chaba - 879 mb, 2004
10. Hurricane Wilma - 884mb, 2005

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005

10/18 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Potential For a New England Hurricane may bring us serious winds and the first real cold snap with temps dipping below freezing. We have a great week ahead first before Wilma’s influence will send us into wild pattern. Exciting weather.. not great for Gulf coast areas and New England as wind damage and more rain appears to be on the way. MUCH COLDER Temperatures should come in her wake!

Summary: Well, we are in a nice stretch, but things are about to change. Yet again a hurricane (will be by noon today if not already) Wilma, is poised to do some real strengthening and will likely hit category 4 or even 5 standing at some point. Florida needs to be on the lookout for this storm and I hope they understand its potential. There are multiple scenarios being played out by the models for how they handle and ultimately phase Wilma with a trough. Similar scenarios of Hazel and even Hurricane Lilli from a while back. The results could be historic and will likely alter the pattern in the east to a very cold one for a little while as Air comes across the pole and into Canada and hen spills into the east. This could set up some Lake Effect Snows (especially at night) and could cause many places to end the growing season hard with a freeze. Windy conditions in the Mid Atlantic to New England could set the stage for massive power outages and there could be a swath of rain from the far eastern Carolinas to New England. The key thought here is STAY TUNED!

Tropics: Wilma will likely be the next Major Hurricane to affect the United States. Category 4 or even 5 status are not out of her reach. Florida needs to be on guard as this hurricane quickly intensifies.

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Saturday, October 08, 2005

10/8 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Been very, very wet. A day respite,m another system, a cool week ahead.

Quick update on what has been amazing rain amounts in the regions. The 5-10 inches of rain predicted for the region was really a good estimate and we have essentially erased the water deficits. Pretty amazing. Due to persistent instability the next 24 hours or so we will continue a slight chance of rain. On Monday another disturbance will come through and another moderate rain event (1 inch plus amounts) could come through. We should continue cool and then will see the influence of the subtropical system off shore!

not much time to update, just stay safe. remember that water is heavy and if it is moving can move you or a car causing a drowning threat. DO NOT drive through water that is covering roads!

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Friday, October 07, 2005

10/7 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

HEAVY RAINS Are here and will be for the next 24 hours. There could be a brief respite, but showers and storms (especially mountains) could fire again Sunday adding to what, by then, will be Saturated grounds. Flood watch in effect! Tropics remain active and a pattern repeat could happen later next week as well which would mean more heavy rains! True shifty in pattern could keep us in line for more storminess and seasonal to slightly below normal temps for a while!

Summary: Wow.. It is famine to a feast when it comes to rain. Areas could, under the right circumstances, see rain totals in the 5-10” range by the end of weekend. Tropical systems and disturbances riding up a slow moving front has a tropical moisture fetch. This combined with a high off the new England coast which is bringing moisture off the Atlantic is combining for a great rain event to occur. Flooding threats will likely be small streams and not the main basins, but I am betting we get close to normal on river flows early next week! See the drought page (http://www.midatlanticweather.com/drought) I am not going to comment to much on next week except a another wet system (not likely this wet) could affect us again later in the week. Seasonably cool should be the rule with temps

Tropics: Another Tropical system could be in the progress of forming off the FL coast. Will be watching.

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Wednesday, October 05, 2005

10/5 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Rain in the Forecast! Maybe quite a bit too, but a lot depends on how slow the front pushes through! Much cooler temps for the weekend and a general dry pattern returning with temps near normal next week!

Summary: Tropical Storm Tammy formed this morning and will play an important role in the weather the next few days. A strong front that is causing a serious winter storm for the upper Plains States and Canada will be approaching and slowly moving through the area. The remnants of Tammy should get entrained into the front and the low pressure will ride up the coast. This could really do some work on the rain deficits as the rain amounts MAY approach 3”+ in parts of the Eastern areas (East of I–95). The concern is that the front is too far east to get most of the area really wet. The best bet for good rains would be right along the coast. After the storm goes by cooler drier area should come through this weekend. Long term we look to drier and remaining seasonally cool.

Tropics: Tropical Storm Tammy was born this morning just east of Florida. Watching a few things out there, but tropics are not too busy beyond this system.

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Monday, October 03, 2005

DC/MD/VA Weather outlook

Big changes in appear to be coming. Strong low could ride up the east coast later this week bring rain (FINALLY) and much cooler temps for the weekend!

Summary: Dry conditions continue with deficits running as high as 4+ inches. We are likely to see a break in this coming Wednesday through Friday as well as a turn to much cooler weather for the weekend. Temps Saturday may only be in the 50s for some and mid 60s for many.

Tropics: Tropics are getting busy again. Tropical Storm Stan will likely be a Hurricane before hitting Mexico. Then a tropical system off the east coast could be the system that links with a strong front coming towards us this Thursday. The linkage of that Low (maybe a tropical Storm) will then bring the Low up the east coast. Cold high to the north will cause quite a windy pattern and also funnel some truly chilly air into the region for Saturday! Kind of nice to have some interesting weather.

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Sunday, October 23, 2005

Thursday, October 20, 2005

Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Saturday, October 08, 2005

Friday, October 07, 2005

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Monday, October 03, 2005

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