Monday, November 30, 2009

First snow threat of the season?!

Some snow *COULD* mske it up this way this coming Friday Night... More to come!

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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

lukes winter 2009-2010 forecast!!

i think, the mid atlantic will have colder than normal temps and above normal precip, whether that means above normal snows depends largely on the track. i think with the light to mod elnino, we will have an active storm track to the south. with the way the pdo and soi are, and with the elnino rising slightly then expected to fall off after december, that could mean a colder winter then weve seen . and if we get the souther track going and more noreasters, we could get 150 to 200% of normal snowfall. but alot has to happen, but the potentail is there, some analogs used by j bastardi, for the up coming winter are a like ness to 63-64, 77-78, and 2002-2003. so i guess we have to wait an see. but i do think we will have at least our normal snowfall, maybe more. and a colder than normall winter. alot depends of track.


Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Historic Nor'easter

This is no small system! Storm warnings, High Wind warning, Flood watches and Warnings, and, yes, high elevation snows!

Parts of Eastern NC have already hit 8 to 10 inches of rain, and now I am thinking areas could see 15"+ amounts.

Winds will really start to crank up overnight into tomorrow. Flooding rains will be along and east of I -95 for the most part, although some rains have been in the 3 to 5 inch amounts in Southern Virginia.

Coastal flooding will be moderate to severe!

A state of Emergency has been declared for Virginia.

All in all, please listen to news and weather outlets for watches and warnings!

You can post Observations here:

Stay safe!


Very Heavy rainfall and windy conditions!

I hinted at this Sunday, but have been tied up and unable to update!

As the remnants of Ida and other pieces of energy all combine, a very powerful Nor'easter will slowly develop, deepen, and move slowly off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will mean prolonged rains, especially Southeastern and Eastern Virginia, North Carlina (more east than west), South Carolina, and Georgia. For 3 to 5 inches of rain will be common with areas receiving as much as 9 to 10 inches of rain totals along the coastal plains and along the shore. High winds will cause higher than normal tides with coastal floods and also beach erosion and rough seas. People should stay tuned to news and radio outlets for a full run down of weather issues and do not ever attempt to ride through water! This is a serious situation! Please be careful!

The Further North you are the less rainfall. Also Areas along and west of the Mountains will not see as much rains. The Piedmont and east will see the rains, and the closer to the coast you are, the heavier it will be.

All for now!

Sunday, November 08, 2009

Nice weather Today and tomorrow! Warmish - BIG RAIN THREAT

I haven't got a lot of time. Please enjoy today and tomorrow as temps soar to the upper 60s and even upper 70s for some.
A lot more concern rising on a Ida's influence on a Nor'easter type system including very heavy rains!
All for now!

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Jimmy's Winter 2009 - 2010 Outlook!

Let me tell you how I look at the forecast.

First, patterns up until now.

We have seen a lot of systems along the Eastern US this year. We have been wet and fairly cool this fall. This would be a favorable sign for a more snowy forecast, but I do not expect an extremely snowy forecast like AccuWeather ( Several others are on board with more snow possibilities!  Raleigh weather (AKA Allan Huffman), Larry Cosgrove from WeatherAmerica, and the Capital Weather Gang ( )

We have some other thoughts as well. I know 2 pro-forecasters calling for warmer than normal and a normal forecast preliminarily by Dave Tgoleris at WxRisk -

So what am I really thinking -

El Nino - what will you do! The warm body of water in the Pacific is the wildest card of the season. I am more and more convinced that feature will stomp my hopes of a snowy winter for the region!

Things I like for Snow -
1. Pattern has been showing good storms from Southern origins
2. Colder air has been locked in place a few times from some blocking patterns - the blocks of North American Oscillations and the Pacific North American areas have been favorable.
3. Snow cover is steadily advancing and the best I have seen this early in several years -
4. Some Sea Surface Temps off the Atlantic Northeast.

Things I am thinking counter high snow
1. El Nino
2. A lot of soil moisture (WxRisk covers this in his forecast)
3. Despite southern storms, I have seen quite a few main lows head west of mountains, which means warmer aloft and ice or rain.

So For Now -

I call for a little above normal snow and normal to slightly above normal temperatures - I am banking on a few larger snow storms in cold spells for above normal snow
Would not be surprised to see a warmer than normal end of winter if El Nino continues to strengthen
Would also expect big swings in temps so snow will not be on the ground a long time this winter.

That is my thinking - I am not a Meteorologist so this is just based on what I see, have read, and El Nino being a factor!

All for now!

Breezy Night - Cool Friday - Sunny Weekend -

Breezes are kicking up thanks to a Low off of Nova Scotia that is really starting to deepen. With breezes not much of a chance for frost as has been the case for many recently.

A cool Friday with highs not cracking the 40s for most areas in the north and mountains. Cool night for Friday night. After a few weekends of rainy weather, we look like sunny skies and seasonable cool temps!

A nice day Monday with highs in the mid and upper 60s with some 70s likely. A cold front will cross regions and bring highs back down to 50s and low 60s the rest of the week. Looks fairly dry for now!

So what is my winter forecast?

Separate post to follow!

All for now!

Cool - breezy - few showers - pretty dry

Today will be cool and an increase in clouds and breezes. As a
disturbance moves though some sprinkles will be possible. This will be
especially true for northern areas of VA, in MD and PA. Winds will
also increase.
Cool 40s tomorrow north and mid 50s south.

A dry sunny weekend looks to be in the works. Warmer conditions Monday
and then seasonal until mid next week.

Tropics spun up Hurricane Ida which is bearing down on Nicaragua this morning.

All for now.

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