Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Ice Storm or not? West of I-95 Some Sleet and Freezing rain Likely Thursday night into Friday!

I would say that the models do not convince me that an ice storm will occur with too many areas Thursday night, but the valleys could very well get enough to warrant ice storm criteria. I would think areas west of I-95 will be but under a winter weather advisory tomorrow night and the mountain valley's could very well be under an ice storm warning. Part of teh reason will be high precipitation amounts and therefor if there is frozen precip it would be heavy for a while.

Next week is starting to look balmy! Could areas see the 70s?

All for now!

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Some updates and thoughts on the weather! Seasonable but little snow chances!

First of all, I have just gotten over being sick so I am sorry I have been so absent. Work also remains busy! I see a lot of traffic from Accuweather forums! Welcome to Mid Atlantic Weather!

It has been very cold! I am happy that the heart of winter has felt like it! Unfortunately for snow lovers, the storm tracks have not favored snow for the region. Despite this I have had snow on the ground now since the 17th! Pretty impressive!

A Large storm will spin up off the east coast the next 24 hours as a southern system which brought frozen precipitation to the south will phase with a northern system that may brig some light snow and snow showers to the region overnight. That storm will miss most areas but **MAY** cause some snow for Massachusetts and cause a lot of ocean snow!

Another system will affect the area Tuesday and will likely mainly be rain, but some precip in the mountain valleys and north could cause some sleet or ice.

Another system next Thursday and Friday could also have some mix involved at onset but looks like a rain event.

Temperatures this week will turn much more seasonable with mainly 40s and low 50s after Sunday.

In general, it does not look like a wintry weather week, just too warm for snow.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

SNOW ALERT! Snow amounts increasing due to radar coverage

Snowfall for the next system has been upped by the NWS. Many areas west of I-95 have been sent to a Winter Storm Warning. It appears that 4"+ of snow will fall in these regions. Higher amounts will occur near and in the mountains.

Snow is now likely to break out near daybreak in the DC metro area. Snow will fall and become heavy at times west of I-95.

Best I can tell from what i am seeing.

A line from Roanoke, to Harrison burg to Leesburg through middle of Frederick County Maryland will see the most snow.

yes.. I kind of fell asleep at the wheel on this one! Again.. snowfall I think will generally be 3-6" east of the immediate piedmont and 4 - 8" in higher elevations.

This has a very high likelihood too change!

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Messy mix probable Thursday and Thursday Night

There is a fairly strong chance that a mix of snow, rain,freezing rain, and sleet will be occurring Thursday and Thursday night.

This is especially true of the Piedmont and mainly west of I -95. Areas of higher elevations could see some accumulating snow before a mix also comes into play there. Not a lot of time so this will be all for now! Please note, that, unlike the last 2 storms, more cold air is already in place before the start of the system.
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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Downgrade snow alert to just some flakes with rain - Brutal cold likely next weekend!

Just not cold enough and a storm that will not get its act together until too late! So we will see rain and many places will likely see a mix at some point overnight, but accumulations are not likely. I could see a dusting and I still feel a bit worried about abandoning accumulations, but i am not getting the Forecast Model support. I will need to watch maps today and this evening to be sure I do not have to reverse course, but again, this winter, we have to call off a real snow alert and just make you aware of the possibility for some snow later tonight.

This week will be a busy one with another possible winter system Thursday/Friday and then a brutally cold snow this coming weekend! Highs may stay in the teens to even single digits in the mountains. Systems could be poised for more snowy concerns next week as we stay pretty cold!

So the key here, less chances of snow.. a seasonable weather week, another chance of wintry weather Thursday and Friday followed by the coldest cold of the season!

Hang on for the bumpy ride!

More later!

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Snow threat still there.. but not as enthusiastic about a big event

Trends on models have been to get this storm together later than would be needed for a larger snowstorm in the area. that being said, some details are obviously not know, and this one has a chance to surprise us. The forecast models have shown a move further east and north with the precipitation. This trend may continue or could be wrong. I am certain some precipitation will fall tomorrow and tomorrow night. I am also fairly certain areas will see snow after some rain for a while. I am not certain if much more than 1  to 3 inches would fall. Areas likely to see snow after a mix would actually be along and just east of I 95 north of Fredericksburg and this would happen tomorrow night. Areas west of I 95 north of Fredericksburg and just up and east of the Piedmont could see a 1 to 2" snow. If models continue to trend unfavorable for heavier precipitation, rain may not turn to snow until right at the end. On the other hand, there may be some more adjustments

So I am not enthusiastic about a big storm, and I am concerned by the trends. They could reverse and we could see more snow so this one is going to be a tough one!

More to come!

Friday, January 11, 2008

Continued threat of Wintry weather Sunday.. but details are fuzzy

There will be a storm and there is the distinct possibility of snow, but the temperatures at the surface may just be warm enough that accumulations become somewhat limited. There may also be a lot of forecast model issues at this time that are causing me to think less of the storm for the time being. The possibilities still run the spectrum from rain most place to more snow, and the lighter or heavier amounts. Now it looks fairly certain there will be some wintry weather in the region, the amounts and impact are way too early to detail.

Next week looks cold and also has another potential snow threat later in the week. We are entering an active winter pattern!

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Increasing Chance of Significant Winter Storm Sunday into Monday

Situation will need to be monitored but it appears a strong Nor'easter may be ready to blast the region with Heavy precipitation Sunday into Monday. Preliminary model output does put areas in a risk for significant wintry precipitation. This has shown up several times on models in the past and then changed dramatically so I will continue to monitor!

All for now!

Sunday, January 06, 2008

The site is back on line! Mild start of the week. A slow cool down and potential storminess!

Yes, I had some major technical issues this week that brought off the net for almost three days! Well, I am glad to say all parts are back up and functional now! The forum is up again too though I lost a few days of data and a memeber or two because of this! If you can go back and sign up I would appreciate it!

For this week, we will stay very mild, even warmish with highs in the Mid 60s Monday and Tuesday. A front will approach and cross the region this Wednesday and then knock temperatures back to cooler values, but still above normal. More precip will fall this Friday and some areas could see it mix with Snow overnight Friday night, especially in the Mountains.

Longer term there appears to be at least 1 to 2 storm threats the following week. The first looks like rain and maybe what is needed to reverse the warmer pattern and make it head towards  a snowier and colder pattern. If things come together right the second could be the first real now threat in a while.

Look for some changes to as a new format may be used and at least a link to a home weather station, at Mid Atlantic Weather's home, is on the way!

All for now!