Saturday, January 31, 2009


Could have a HUGE snow on us Monday into Tuesday! We will wait and see, but WOW for the new models!

Time to put things in perspective

The likelihood of a huge and historic system is fading with every model run. We may see some snow here Monday night into Tuesday, but even that is questionable. It has been an amazing change in the last 36 hours as the models went from a Historic Blizzard to barely a storm on the east coast Monday into Tuesday. Once they started saying there would not be a big snow/rain/blizzard, they have pretty much stuck with this idea. I suspect we do not know the final outcome, but I am thinking this storm could end up missing us altogether!

We will continue to watch and update as we can!

All for now!

Friday, January 30, 2009


12 z guidance for nearly all models has a strong low of coast of nc/va, bombing out to nearly 989 mb as its going up coast, could mean big snows for mid atl depending on track. so stay tuned, remember things can change, but with only 3 days till event models are coming to a solution, stay tuned...


Sunday, January 25, 2009

Unfortunate truth of this area! Winter weather is hard to predict - Winter weather less of an impact

While I still suspect the biggest winter weather event of the season, the snow impact is far less now. Shifting the zones one notch north for everyone puts most of Northern Virginia in a 2 to 4 inch threat. Maryland 3-5 inches, and the heavier snows up northward! That being said, we may not see totals even that much. Ice now is becoming a bit of a threat for northern areas as well.

For people wondering what happened? Well, the storm originally was forecasted to be weaker! In this case, that made it a good thing as we would not have a hard southern wind pushing warmer air in so we stayed snow a long time. The low pressure went south of  the region. That low is now MUCH stronger than forecast so stronger winds now will push the warmer air up here! Disappointing for snow fans like me! When storms get that strong, they also tend to move further north and that also is true!

Because of this, the forecast has changed and, I am sorry to say, may still change more!

All for now!

Winter Weather Alert! Potential for first real snow of 2009!

Tuesday into Wednesday will likely hold the first big storm of the winter.

Scenario: The arctic front will stay south far enough to allow warm moist air to override the colder air and cause snow to break out Tuesday. The moist air will be pumped north by a system that will be pushing the precipitation into the area. The southerly winds will slowly warm the atmosphere and a gradual changeover to ice and rain in the southern region.

As of now:
Maryland and Northern Virginia (North of Lexington to Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Dover Deleware could see 4 to 8 inches of snow. Closer to Pennsylvania may see as much as 12 inches. The differences in precipitation will be areas that mix with sleet and freezing rain. The further south you get the more likely a mix even to rain will occur.

Central Virginia will have a good amount of snow (2 to 4 Inches) before mix and changeover to rain.

Southern Virginia - South of a Roanoke to Farmville to Richmond to Chincateugue line, will see 1 to 3 inches possible, but a mixing with rain and ice and then rain will stop the accumulations and quickly be washed away.

This is based on the latest guidance and it will likely adjust over time as we get closer to the event.

More to come!
Mid Atlantic Weather:
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum:

Saturday, January 24, 2009

This could be a great week for snow! We shall see

A situation is setting up that is challenging and potentially exciting, especially the Northern Half of Virginia, up into DC and Maryland, IF you like Snow! The Arctic front which will be south of Virginia and slowly climbing northward next week, could have an overrunning (moist air thrown up over teh cold air) event that would be the best snow yet this winter. In systems like this it usually ends up with snow and an eventual turn over to ice and then rain, but most precip is done by the time it is too warm for snow. If things continue as they are showing, the time frame to watch would be Tuesday into Wednesday. There even *COULD* be another wave of wintry weather later in the week.

We will see! Longer term we could see quite a warm up early in February, and possibly a change again back to better chances of storms shortly there after.

All for now!


Saturday, January 17, 2009

No Big Snows - still need to watch a bit

Synthetically speaking, we do not have the elements for a big snow storm. The Systems that are coming through are not slowing and amplifying as the flow in the atmosphere is too fast. So we have a wave that is developing off the coast tomorrow night, but it has moved well east of the area!

Sorry for the false alarm.. this winter is NOT shaping up as a snow producer as the key elements needed keep missing!

That being said, I will continue to monitor the next 24 hours. Sometimes things can change!

All for now!


looking like mondays snow chances are now nothing but maybe some flurries or possible snow showers, nearly all of the models are takeing the storm too far off-shore to really mke any kind of an imopact.

*** luke ***

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Why we need to be careful in this pattern! It is gonna get COLD!

First of all, it is gonna get BRUTALLY cold by next weekend. Next Friday may have many areas with highs in the teens! HIGHS IN THE TEENS!

Second, the set up next week will be a tough, and it is possible that a surprise snow storm could develop! Yes, A SURPRISE because it may start to show up very close to the event.

Just because it may show up, does not mean it will.. But a little reminder of January 25th, 2000 does come to mind. The PATTERN and not the forecast models show the potential! SO stay tuned to the weather day by day!

So get ready... Tuesday could be the first surprise with a bit more snow than what is expected.

Second, we just have to watch.

Third, it is time to be sure you are ready for the cold! Protect outside spikets, get the antifreeze checked, and a new battery in your car if necessary!  By the end of next week it will be BRUTAL!

All for now!



well, today thru tomorrow, most of us will see a mix to rain, maybe some snow north of mason-dixon line.... on 13th-14, a clipper comes down and, latest 00z gfs and euro, show some coastal development off va-nc border, have to wait and see on that... then the 15th-16th,. another clipper comes down, a little more to south, could be some snows.. still 5-6 day away for that one.... then after that storm the real change happens, it gets frigid. and stays frigid for about 2 weeks.. which takes me to my final thought. on the 18th-20th, a storm forms in gulf, and comes up coast as a miller A. and it looks to be plenty cold enough for snow..

now remember the ones beyond 3 or 4 days out, can and probably will change back and forth change, so of course we have to keep a watch on them. but either way, its looking very wintry the next 2 weeks and beyond.

*** luke ***

Monday, January 05, 2009

Ice on its way

With the evening has come a steady sinking of the dew point. At my house I am own to 9 degree dew points! That is sufficient to cause serious evaporational cooling and sleet! I suspect this will be the first precipitation type here in Northern VA. As expected, Far NW areas have been placed under a Winter Storm warning and the winter Weather advisoury stretches south and southwestward.

Expecting this to still be an elevated surface event, except shaded regions. Also, expectin snow and sleet mix near the PA border.

All in all, NWS is on target this time for Northern VA! Way to go!

South of Fredericksburg will not see much

Draw a line from Galax VA to Roanoke to Charlottesville and go up the mountains and you will see a mix. From Charlottesville up to Dulles and west, it will be more of a signficant mix. Go to the immediate Piedmont of Virginia from West of Charlottesville up to Hagerstown and up in to PA and I could see enough ice for warning status!

All I have!

Some ice

If you had chance to see my forum update, you would know that I have not been overly enthusiastic about the ice chances other than along the immediate piedmont. The high pressure that will provide some cold air damming is not in the best position. The northern virginia nws has this one in grasp. Many ares in a winter weather advisory. Some areas in far NW virginia an western Maryland, east of the mountains, likely to see a warning issued. All area roads are above freezing east of the immediate piedmont. Result will be a elevated surface and shady spot event. No matter what, a little ice can be very dangerous! More to come.

Sent from my BlackBerry Wireless Device

Sunday, January 04, 2009


looking like a classic cold air damming event for teusday- wed. arctic air will come in after a cold front on monday, and the cold air will get dammed up against the mountains, in the lower levels. with warmer air aloft, so we could have several hours of sleet and freezing rain, as temps here at surface will be below freezing... more to come...