Sunday, January 31, 2010

Next weekend is looking interesting - Mid week we may have a small "storm"

Not a lot of time to post. I do not want to downplay a possible mid week smaller system that would cause Central VA a bit of snow (maybe a modest one). I am not yet sold on it.

Next weekend is starting to look a bit like the last. It is WAY early, but this one may head out to the south again! We will have to wait and see.

I am just commenting on models and raising awareness on mid week possibilities.

Off to bed and getting ready for a really tough Monday!

Cold conditions - Seasonably cold week - BIG STORM LOOMS

I was very happy with the snow up here in Northern Virginia and Maryland because I am a snow freak! I love it! This week looks relatively dry except Tuesday night when snow showers and rain showers may visit.

The next BIG SYSTEM looks like it will arrive around next Friday! There will be a wintry component, but, due to the strength of the storm it may turn folks to a mix or even rain for a while. The mountains and immediate Piedmont look best set for another major snow event (8"+). This is way early to get hung up on these details, but it is something to be watching.

FYI.. f you keep pets outside the temps and snow pack could be too much for them. Please get them in a garage or inside sat nights and make certain they have fresh, unfrozen, drinking water!

All for now!

Friday, January 29, 2010


Models trending North!

2 to 4 inches now possible in DC metro. More possible. Updates later!

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Sorm on track! Southern VA Northern NC Historical Snow and Winter Storm!

I would not stray too far from my map for Virginia. This looks like a
Historic event. Snow will start in the evening in the southwest and
overspread the southern third of Virginia and the northern half of
North carolina. I may say a 1 to 3 inch increase in higher amount
locations could occur as the ratios of snow per liquid equivalent will
be high! That is rare for that part of the country. Snow will
gradually progress north but it seems unlilkely it will make it past
the southern DC metro area. Around that area an inch may fall. A very
cold day with temps region wide in the 20s tomorrow. North Carolina,
South Carolina and Northeast Georgia could see Ice totals up to or
over 1 inch. Snow will be cut down in total amounts for the southern
half of the state with sleet and freezing rain a real issue down to
the South Carolina border. This will be one for the rcord books. Some
adjustments may come as the storm gets closer, but those in the warned
areas should prepare!

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Thursday, January 28, 2010

Second Call on the Event! Richmond - 8" Bristol - 13" Roanoke - 8" Raleigh - 8" - With Sleet too Norfolk - 10 - 12" Sleet at first Charlottesville - 5" Frederickburg - 3 - 4" Dulles - 1" DC - 2" Asheville - 7" and sleet Raleigh - 8" Danville - 14 - 16" Martinsville - 14 - 16" Roanoke Rapids - 12 - 14" Greensboro - 9" Greenville SC - 2" and sleet and freezing rain to .5" Major Ice Storm down in Piedmont of SC/NC/Northeast GA!




Wednesday, January 27, 2010

First Guess!

First Call:

The NC/VA border is the focus line for snow! Mountains to coast snow for these folks. I would then go 50 miles either side of that for the heaviest snow! I am thinking widespread 6 to 12 inches in this area with some up to 14 - 16". Snow will then quickly drop off! Again drawing an east to west line from Charlotessville to Chincoteaugue, and down to Richmond I am thinking 3 to 6. Another thin band from Harrisonburg to Ocean City Maryland down to the last line for 1 to 3 inches. Above this up to Virginia and Maryland border could see up to 1 inch of light snow.

This could do 3 things!
1. Go South further (VERY possible)
2. Come north (possible)
3. Become a lighter event overall. This is hinted at currently.

Things that make this a southern storm- Really just 1 thing! The Polar Vortex (PV) over the Northeast is very far south and extremely strong. This Low is funneling cold air south and locking the air mass in place. This makes the system unable to come north!

Unless this PV weakens or moves we will not see a north progression. Models keep making it stronger!

All for now! Thinking map will not be posted tonight. Too tired! Too late!

Snow still looks Likely for the state

From Roanoke to Richmond to Chincoteugue and southward I am seeing a Major snow storm is possible. This would mean the possibility for 8 inches or more of snow. North of that from a line up to Charlottesville to Fredericksburg, to Ocean City I could see a 4 to 8 inch snow occurring. Northward still up to the VA. MD Border, 2 to 4 inches seems more likely.. North of that, 1 - 2 inches up to the MD/PA border.

That is my current thinking. Maps will be out LATE this evening. Changes could occur on the noon model runs. If so I will attempt to update.

Time frame for snow looks later Friday and All Day Saturday.

All for now!

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Some model adjustments, Southern Virginia still the winners! Snow still looks likely

I will continue to watch the models for more accurate adjustments. Some encouraging signs for snow lovers on the American model this evening. It may still be off and too far north. I am still believing Southern 1/3rd of Virginia and Northern Half of North Carolina (and Mountains) to get the heaviest snows. Many will still see a significant snow from this.. Major for the VA/NC border area.

All for now!

Saw a shift in position of Storm - Southern push! Will have to see if this holds on next runs!

 Southern Virginia and North Carolina are looking like the winners on the Snow! I think I barked too soon for Maryland and Northern Virginia - at least I am concerned that models have trended SOUTH and this would be a miss Northern Virginia and Maryland! I will update later today!

Monday, January 25, 2010

With the latest Model Trends it appears a MAJOR WINTER STORM is becoming Likely!

First of all, this is STILL model forecasting! Nothing has happened YET, but I am seeing some good trends towards this event!

As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.

As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.

There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.

All for now!

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With the latest Model Trends it appears a MAJOR WINTER STORM is becoming Likely!

First of all, this is STILL model forecasting! Nothing has happened YET, but I am seeing some good trends towards this event!

As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.

As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.

There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.

All for now!

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Crazy weather - Mild rainy AM- Late week system more confident

Overnight many saw flooding rains and very gusty winds. Many flood warnings remain, so be careful! Temps have soared to the low 60s for many! This may hold for a while and start to fall some as the day progresses. This week will be interesting! Colder air will definitely visit and with reinforcements of cold air later this week. A wave of low pressure appears likely to form across the south and ride up towards the area towards the weekend. This could be a prolonged area of snow and ice for the region starting as early as Wednesday night for some and lasting through Saturday. If models are true, totals could range up to and even above a foot in some locations! That is all based on models but we have to look at the potential of a major storm as possible.

After today, the week will be cold with temps ranging 35 to 45 for the region,, with partly cloudy conditions Tuesday

Please be careful and do not attempt to drive through standing or moving water! You have no idea really how deep it may be!

All for now!

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Flood Watches posted. 2-3 inches rain

Flood watches posted for 2 to 3 inches of rain!

Confidence in winter storm next weekend continues to grow!

All for now!

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Heavy rain event on the way - fairly cold week - Growing confidence in next weekend Winter Storm!

We will have a seasonably cool and dry day today. Highs in the 40s and even low 50s possible in the south. A strong storm, responsible for incredible precipitation amounts in the Rockies and the Southwest US will pay us a visit tomorrow. Rain will break out area wide and become heavy late in the day and overnight. Rains in excess of 1 to 2 inches are possible. With some warmer temps working in we may also see thunderstorms in parts of the region. Severe weather *COULD* make it to southeastern Virginia and should be watched. Temps will be in the 50s and stay there Sunday through Monday with little cool down at night.

Next week looks to get colder as the week progresses. Temps will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Next Weekend shows one of the best looking set ups I have seen for a winter weather event! We could see a significant winter storm. Much to watch and ponder between now and then.

Enjoy the dry day!

All for now!

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Friday, January 22, 2010

Winter weather mainly west - Dry Saturday - heavy rains Sunday

Most precip today will be spotty. I pretty much had a forecast bust as
it did end up much warmer. If I had dropped the totals by 2 to as much
as 4 inches in the snow forecast I would have been better! Sorry all.
Some light mix is still possible today but nothing looks heavy.
Tomorrow temps will rebound to 30s mountains, 40s north and piedmont,
low 50s south. A very potent storm system, the one causing feet of
snow in the lower Rockies, will push through starting Sunday and last
until early Monday. Several inches of rain could come from this so
flooding is a concern. Next week looks a bit chilly with highs close
to seasonal. A potential winter storm could affect us by the end of
the week.

All for now!

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Thursday, January 21, 2010

Nuisnace wintry event - some to see decent snow

This is a tough forecast. I am inclined to be less enthusiastic about
snow chances and more sleet and rain. I think along I-95 north of
fredericksburg up to Baltimore and west about 25 miles a general
coating, to as much as 2 inches of slop (western border of that area)
will occur. The I-15 area north of charlottesville up in to maryland
could see 2 to 4 inches and areas of higher elevation along I-81 west
of charlottesville up into western Maryland could see totals of 3 to 5
inches. A slight change in storm dynamics and location could up totals
by 1 to 3 inches or drop them. This is not clear cut. Based on the
time of year a more snowy picture may occur than this.

Beyond this event a serious rain threatens the area Sunday into Monday
and flooding does seem possible.

All for now.

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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Winter weather even more likely

Seeing increased chance of snow for Thursday and Friday northern
Virginia and Maryland. More to come

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Winter Storm looking more likely

Today will be another mild day with highs in the low 50s north to near 60 south. A cold front will usher in some cooler air overnight. Tomorrow will be cooler with Highs in the mid 40s to low 50s for the region. Thursday will be a bit of a challenge. North and west of a Roanoke to Charlotteville to Baltimore line a mixture of rain, then snow and sleet will be likely as the day progresses. Thursday night looks very wintry with a mix of snow and sleet and freezing rain that could progress to the I-95 corridore North of Frederickburg.

More to come.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Marginal Snowstorm possible later this week!

The issue here will be colder air which will have to be created through dynamics and not by a cold arctic system entrenched. This will mean a mix is also very likely and that heavier precip may be the thing that makes snow. I am not yet completely sure the system, but the risk is there! This would be Mountains and immediate Piedmont west if I-95 and north of Roanoke. All I can say for now!

All for now!

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Milder Temps! Weekend rain soaker

We will see a serious milder push of air today. Many will see mid and upper 40s, even lower 50s in the south. This mild air will stick through Saturday. A very wet system will affect the area Sunday and Sunday night. This storm will be mainly if not all rain for most. A bit of sleet could mix in at onset in the colder valleys and far north.

I was expecting a serious warm up next week, but we may just be seasonable with low and mid 40s north to around 50 south next week. Next chance of precip could be around next Friday.

All for now!

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Warmer - Rain this weekend - Where are we headed the rest of winter?

To elaborate - The temps will be warming for the Eastern third of the US through the next week or more as we have changes in the pattern. This winter went from a rainy weekends with several Gulf lows to changes starting around December 5th. The cold air in that storm turned the area to snow for many and that was the first of the year. We then oscillated a bit with a rain event and then the big snow on the 18th. After this there were indications that a much colder pattern may arrive around the new year. I was a bit hesitant to be on board completely, but then was convinced we would get cold. The pattern seemed ideal for another snow storm, but ideal atmospheric conditions do not always lead to a storm. So we never had another big snow but a few minor events and the cold came and was reinforced.

Why were we cold? A few factors.
1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which features a "Blocking" pattern over Greenland. This block stops cold air from advancing eastward in Canada and instead helps send it into the United states when it is in what is known as its Negative phase (-NAO).
2. What is known as a 50/50 low or similar to it. This is a Low over about 50 degree north Latitude ad 50 degree west longitude.This low at one point was a Polar Vortex (the cause of the big snow) broke down a bit and then was re established with the New England blizzard New Years weekend.
3. The western Ridge or what is known as the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. This features a High in the western US which sends colder air into the east.

All in all, the above are great for cold air and potential snow patterns.

Another factor with this winter is the moderate El Nino pattern. This has aided in southern storms that were very abundant in moisture. This is what aided in such a  wet fall and also the big snow event.

With the breakdown of items 1, 2, and 3 above a change is in the offing and this will mean a much milder pattern for the East. The southern storms will still be forming and thus the pattern returns to where we were before the above colder elements sent us into the chill.

We will likely see a return in a few weeks back to a colder pattern and thus more chances of snow. Until items 1,2, or 3 reappear though, we are likely to see rain, maybe even icing in certain conditions, but not the best chances of snow.

That being said, other factors can make it snow along the East coast (like December 5th which did not really have any of the three above) but it is also less likely they would be pure snow storms.

So warming means a rainy Sunday and a milder next week with temperatures likely to be above normal for some days. Some may even reach the 60s!

All for now!

Warmer temps. Rain looks likely Sunday

Just a quick note! Temps will be near seasonal today with many seeing
40s for the first time in a while. A little warmer tomorrow with upper
40s and a few 50s and then Friday even warmer with widespread 50s!

Storm Sunday looks to be Rain. And a soaker it may be!

Milder conditions will return next week. 50s and perhaps some 60s for some!

All for now.

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Monday, January 11, 2010

possible winter storm this coming weekend

complex system coming this weekend. could mean snow , maybe some ice, more to come as it gets closer


Quick update on Weekend Storm

Looks like a rain event more and more! Then a warm up next week. Just a quick update!

All for now!

Cold start, milder mid week - storm this weekend

Cold morning for many with lows in the single digits for some. Temps
will warm into the 30s to maybe 40 for southern areas. Tonight will
feature the chance for some snow showers. This could leave a dusting
for a few. That area would likely be a Charlottesville, Spotsylvania,
Chincoteague line. Tomorrow will see high 3 to 5 degrees warmer with
more 40s south and upper 30s north. Wednesday warms another 5 degrees
and widespread 40s look on tap! The warmest day in a long time will be
Thursday where upper 40s to upper 50s could visit the region and melt
the ground. Next weekend is quite the challenge with highs back to the
30s and low 40s and a southern storm approaching. I do think many will
see rain, but sleet and freezing rain looks possible for valleys and
an initial mix of snow sleet and rain/freezing rain could be on tap
for northern areas. A turnover to rain does appear likely from what I
am seeing, but this could be after a good amount of snow. Rains could
be heavy and some flooding may also be a concern. Longer term a very
mild, even warm forecast looks possible with highs possibly hitting
the 60s for the area, maybe even a 70 in the south if the models are
correct. Too far off to be certain. All for now!

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Sunday, January 10, 2010

Slightly Milder Week - Potential BIG SNOW - Spring warmth?

The ice box is being closed SLOWLY and the deep freeze is slowly waning. We will see warmer temps this week with highs in the 30s and even 40s.

Next weekend will interesting as another gulf low is coming from the south. The cold air may be just cold enough for snow or a mix for the area. After the storm moves out a serious warm up may occur. Highs in the 50s and even 60s MAY occur. How long.. I am not sure.

We could see a touch of snow, maybe even a coating for few on Monday night into Tuesday.



Monday, January 04, 2010

COLD - supressing storms.

Just plain cold! I warned a while back this may happen based on
models. It came true. What is not going to happen is a big snow in
such a strong flow. I will not be surprised to see a touch of snow
Friday morning.

Temps will be cold but not as cold tomorrow through Thursday. Friday
will see a return to super cold temps through the weekend. Not seeing
a good threat of snow in the near future. We should still watch Friday
in case something happens with phasing.

All for now!

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