Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Snow chances fade with rain chances and then colder conditions next week

I am not saying that areas in the north, especially immediate piedmont and valley locations will not see some frozen precip, but models now run the Sunday/Monday low that was potentially going to be very far south, up into the Great Lakes ending any thoughts of real snow here. This low will tap Canadian air on the back side and plummet temperatures to very cold readings next week! This will be the coldest we have seen.

For today and tomorrow temps will be in the upper 40s north to mid 50s in the south. A front comes through tomorrow and knocks temps back a bit and then we have the Precipitation arriving Late Saturday night or Sunday. As I noted, some frozen could be possible at the onset in areas north and immediately east for the mountains or in valley locations.

After the rain event Sunday into Monday, we should see a stretch of  fairly cold temperatures with many areas in the 30s for highs for a few days.

All for now!

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Clearing and windy. Cold looks likely next week! Weekend weather could spell some mixed Precip!

First off, areas did fairly well th last 24 hours north and west of Virginia in the rain department. Parts of Maryland say an inch or more in rain. Things clear up and temps really stay close to where they are this morning.

Colder air arrives this weekend, and a storm system approaches from the SW. Initially some colder air should cause at least some mixed precipitation in the Colder piedmont and mountain valleys, as well as the north. As of now (and this may change) the system is getting forced inland and west of the Appalachians which would turn us all to rain. There is still time to see what will come of this.

Next week still looks fairly cold!

All for now!

Monday, November 26, 2007

Rain - even the chance for Thunder today/tonight! Long term pattern DOES show cold next week! SNOW?

Rain could be heavy at times today and then overnight there is even a chance for isolates thunderstorms as the front moves through. This system will not tap the colder areas of Canada so it will leave seasonal weather in its wake. A front moves through Thursday that will send temperatures to below normal values again. A week from now it does appear a storm will be approaching the region. Based on current forecast models, enough cold air does look around to at least start this system as a winter weather event! How much and how long this will last is a matter of time to tell!

Very long term shows a return to seasonal or slightly above normal temperatures after the colder week of next week!

All for now!

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Sleet and Snow Pellets reported (and I saw some) overnight and this morning. On target for a rainy Monday

Last night on my trip from Gettysburg to Sterling Virginia I hit several pockets of Snow Pellets and sleet. Sleet was also reported in Central Virginia this morning which was associated with some energy and overrunning of rain.

Rain will come in tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s area wide though Thursday when another front will cross the area and cause some showers and temps back into the 40s and low 50s at best.

There are definite signs of colder air the first week of December and a possible winter weather event around the 4th or 5th. All this is speculation this far out! We will have to see.

All for now!

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Cold Morning.Rain Monday. seasonal.. pattern shift could mean winter weather

We had the coldest night so far this season last night. I had a low of 21 which seems comparable to most of the colder lows throughout the region. A front and associated weather system will cause some rain here Monday. Seasonal temperatures in the 50s will persist much of the week, but turning slightly colder next weekend.

Long term conditions seems to start to favor better chances of cold and precipitation the week of December third! We could see our first real chance of wintry weather that week!

All for now!

Friday, November 09, 2007

More rain than I thought.. SNOW close by.. maybe a bit more.. warmer next week and then?

This morning snow fell in many western areas including areas just to my west in Purcellville, VA! Pretty exciting to see it so close. 3 disturbance are swinging or have swung through the region leaving much more rains today than first thought! Coldest high of the Fall with highs in the low 40s today. As the third piece of energy travels through this evening rain has filled back in and there is a chance as winds switch to the north that rain could again switch to or mix with snow for a while!

Rain will depart during the first half of the day Saturday with winds picking up as a coastal low gets spun up off the coast. Cool conditions will continue with highs in the 40s and low 50s in the south.

Things start warming with highs low to mid 50s in the North, upper 50s south Sunday, 50's and low 60s Monday, Low to mid 60s Tuesday.

Long term is up in the air with possibilities of warmer or colder temps. Hedging my bets that we will stay somewhat mild and not super cold though we may cool a bit after a front mid next week. Some models point to a Thanksgiving week cold outbreak, others mild to "warm". the battles will continue!

All for now!

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Colder conditions have arrived. Moderation to begin Sunday! Snow Showers?

Amazing what stronger overnight winds that are downsloping from the mountains will do. I woke up to 44 degrees which was warmer than my 8PM reading last night. Breezy and cool conditions will prevail today with areas in the upper 40s in the north to mid and upper 50s in the south. Tonight will have widespread 20s especially west of I95 and low 30s east which will mean the coldest night of the season thus far. Cool and cold conditions will persist through Saturday. A disturbance **MAY** be able to squeeze some showers out Friday afternoon and rain and snow showers Friday Night with the best chance of precipitation in the mountains. This will be mainly northern half of the area.
Milder/Seasonal conditions return Sunday and then a slight warming through mid next week when another shot at some rain arrives!
All for now!

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Good Soaking rains over last night usher in cooler weather the rest of the week! Snow Showers?!

A nice rain fell last night with the front and that rain should be ending in the east by later morning. Cooler air now moves in and will persist until about Sunday when warmer conditions will begin. Temps at night will dip into the 20s for many areas especially Wednesday night. Now, there is a chance some precipitation could fall Thursday through Saturday and ay night time this would mix with or be snow showers. This is especially true for higher elevations and some snow showers there look likely Thursday night and Friday night. For areas west of 95 up to the mountains a mixture of snow and rain showers seems possible Friday night!

Realistically, I am not super impressed with the idea of any snow east of the mountains, but the possibility exists.

Longer term looks like a little warm up and then back to seasonal next week after another front.

All for now!

Monday, November 05, 2007

Cool down about to occur. Lasting colder conditions unlikely.

Today will be nice with increasing cloudiness. Temps will be mid and upper 60s to lower 70s in the southern areas.The strong front will cross the region overnight and tomorrow temps will be about 10 degrees cooler. Then about 5- 10 degrees cooler after that. This will mean most areas will freeze that have not officially ending the rest of the growing season for anyone.

Wednesday through Friday will see highs in the 40s north, and 50s south with some 30s in the mountains.  There is a chance that the mountains will see a touch of snow this coming Thursday into Friday while the rest of us see some isolated showers Friday.

Long term, a slow return to seasonal to just above normal temperatures seems likely as the Jet stream takes a zonal flow pattern. There could be a significant weather maker around the 11th which I ill keep an eye on.

All for now!

Sunday, November 04, 2007

Colder Week on the way! NWS even has a chance of snow in the area!

Seasonal temperatures will remain today and tomorrow and then we have a strong cold front move through dropping temperatures to the 50s and 40s. A disturbance could make it in here towards the end of the week and (according to one model) cause a mix of rain and snow in the higher areas of the piedmont and the mountains would see just snow. I am interested in seeing what *MAY* happen but wanted to mention it as it is in the NWS forecast!

All for now!