Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Cool day - some showers - Saturday Rain -More seasonable through the weekend

Cool air aloft will aid in producing showers today that are a result of warming sunshine and an upper level disturbance. Nothing too long and, if you get a shower, the temps will cool rapidly and then likely rebound. Temps generally in the 60s north and low 70s south. Coldest night so fr this season expected tonight. Mountain regions west of the Blue Ridge could see their first frost. Temps in the 30s out there, while low and mid 40s for many, some southern and coastal regions will see lower 50s.

On more cool day with highs again 60s to around 70 Thursday.

Temps warm to the mid and upper 70s Friday with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Friday night and Saturday look wet, maybe a few thunderstorms as well. Temps about the same Saturday and even into early next week as drying conditions set in Sunday and last until at least Tuesday.

Tropics still quiet for now and September was extremely quiet! There are hints in models that conditions may present some chances for a storm forming next week.

All for now.

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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Cool day- breezy - Cool air lasts through Friday - Wet Saturday

Very cool this morning with lows in the 50s. Temps will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s today. Breezy with winds gusting into the 30s this afternoon.
Temps will be about 5 degrees cooler tomorrow with highs in the mid and upper 60s at best. Night time lows will be in the 30s in the mountains and 40s for most everyone else. Temps will get a bit warmer Thursday and be similar to today and then 70s Friday. A front and low pressure will then move through the area Saturday and bring more rain to the region for Saturday.

Tropics remain quiet for now but signals are there for another potential system some time next week.

All for now

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Monday, September 28, 2009

Cooler air on the way - breezy!

Nice and cool autumn morning! Highs today will reach the lower and
middle 80s south and around 80 north. A cold front will also pass
through and cause scattered showers and storms. Some storms could have
gusty winds. Temps will then really cool down. Highs in the north will
be 65 to 70 through Friday and temps in the south will be 70 to 75.
Lows will be cool! Low to mid 40s north tonight and mid and upper 40s
the rest of the week. 50 to 55 for the south. Things look dry after
today for the rest of the week.

Of note, today and tomorrow will ber very breezy!

All for now.

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Sunday, September 27, 2009

Rain ends for a day - more tomorrow and then dry the rest of the week

Rain has ended and clearing should commence and today will end sunny with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.

Tomorrow a front will come through and some showers and maybe some thunderstorms. Temps will again be in the 70s and low and mid 80s.

Cooler air will come in after the front and send temps down about 5 to degrees and much cooler air will come tomorrow.

Drier conditions will continue through the rest of the week.

Temps will continue to be in the upper 60s and the mid 70s.

Tropics have calmed again and nothing on the horizon.

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Saturday, September 26, 2009

Heavy rains tonight - Gradual Clearing tomorrow - especially west - more rains Monday - Some thoughts on winter!

Rains have been heavy which is bad for SW VA and Western NC as some flooding has kicked up again. Rains will start to decrease, but will be slow to do some. Some rains will continue to be heavy at times for the eastern region in the morning and some thunderstorms will also be possible east of I-95.

Monday, a front will come through and drop temps from the 70s North and Low to mid 80s south (which we will see tomorrow and the next day) to just 60s north and low and mid 70s south. The Upper 60s and low to mid 70s should then persist with drier days through Friday!

What of winter?
I said I would start to look at factors that could help predict the upcoming winter and the first is too early to tell. The snow pack.. We will need to watch this up until about Thanksgiving before I get a sense of the possible tell tale on the snow and cold for the region.

As of now, the forecasts I have seen are calling for a warmer than normal winter and below normal snow. I think it is a bit early to make the call but there are some hints that I am noticing on why. The biggest is the lack of a moderate El Nino which looked like it may make its presence known.. predictions have slackened on it so that too is something to note.

Other things that will help include SSTs and also the patterns we see this fall. I have been a bit encouraged by seeing the precip and some cold intrusions along the Eastern seaboard (being the snow lover I am) but nothing is totally there on a pattern yet.

All for now!!

Friday, September 25, 2009

Quite a bit of rain this morning - cooler 60s and low 70s - some clearing then more rain tomorrow

A front has progressed through a lot of the area and is along the VA/NC border this morning. A plume of moisture overrode the front and resulted in widespread showers throughout the state of VA. These should decrease as the day goes on due to drier air works into the region from the north. An organized area of Low pressure will come through the region tomorrow and bring a good soaking rain, especially across central VA and NC. Areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rain from the storm.

The Low lifts away Sunday so things will slowly dry out until another system pushes through Monday afternoon with a few more showers. Drier weather will then return.

Temps will likely be cooler than first thought with 60s to near 70 north, in the low and mid 70s south.

Tomorrow will be very cool with 60s (low 60s north around 70 south) tomorrow.

Temps will be in the 70s Sunday and Monday and a little cooler (upper 60s to lower 70s) Tuesday. A warmer Wednesday with highs back in the mid and upper 70s.


Thursday, September 24, 2009

Warm day ahead of fall weekend

Tomorrow will see clouds increasing again but temps remaining in the
70s for most. Rain chances will be on the increase over time from west
and the south. Rain will be present in WV and NC and SW VA. It will
eventually over spread the whole region Saturday into Sunday.

Cool 60s to low 70s Saturday should warm again starting Sunday and
early next week.

All for now!

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Sunday, September 20, 2009

Another nice day for Many - SW VA and NC sit in clouds/showers

It is going to be pretty nice for most of VA today, but clouds will be on the increase in clouds and SW VA and Western NC is seeing showers.
Clouds continue to increase area wide and showers will be slowly increasing in coverage tomorrow. Shower chances then stick around all week even a chance of some Thunder Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will actually warm towards middle week and be around 80 or even the lower 80s.

Of note, a system in the middle of the Atlantic does have some organization and could form into a tropical system the next several days.

All for now.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Nice weather for Virginia, the south is staying cloudy! More rain chances return Monday

Today began a clearing for most of Virginia and down to the North Carolina border. North Carolina will stay cloudy with rain chances straight through the weekend and into next week. Temps will be in the 70s and even some 60s where clouds are thick and rain occurs.

There is now something to watch in the Atlantic again as a tropical wave becomes a bit better organized.

Not a lot more to say! I am working on some additional updates to the web site this weekend and will keep you updated.

All for now!

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Light rain and drizzle next 48 hours - Weekend looking better for Virginia!

70s with increased chances of rain through the day. After a concern of a locking wet period we now look like Northern regions could just experience rain today, tomorrow and part of Friday but the trend is now there for a dry yet cooler weekend for most of Virginia.  So we should see showers today, especially in the north and more widespread this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow. Friday should see a decrease in coverage and a less chance of rain in the north, but areas further south and into North Carolina could end up with rain showers straight through the weekend and into early next week.

The weekend looks cool with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. More widespread rain chances should increase again Monday.


Tuesday, September 15, 2009

A day more of sun with 80s - rain on the way

Another beautiful day today before we get a "Back door"cold front to slide off the ocean and over the area which will knock the warm 80s today to the 70s tomorrow with rain chances increasing throughout the day Wednesday and becoming likely Tomorrow night and Thursday. The rain chances will diminish some Friday and more on Saturday which could mean a drier end of the weekend.Temps will stay in the 70s.

The tropics look benign now though some forecast models hint at possible activity in the next 3 to 4 days.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Nice warm 2 days - rain to return

The weather will be very nice today and tomorrow! Mid 80s will be the
rule. Unfortunately a "back door" cold front will move into the area
tomorrow night and will bring cooler 70s with rain chances the rest of
the week, even Saturday at this point!

Tropics have settled down as Fred showed a burst of activity yesterday
that has died out.

Not much more to report for a Monday!

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Sunday, September 13, 2009

Nice day - Now Rain possible Wednesday- and beyond??

Nice seasonal 80s today as we head into a week of less clouds and nicer weather after the pesky low has finally departed. The next chance of precip will be Wednesday as yet another similar situation starts Wednesday due to a High over the Northeast and a potential interaction of a cut off low. The end of the week is an unwritten story due to the uncertainty of the ways that the systems will affect the area. I am not optimistic.So, enjoy the warmer days before we may enter another cloudy and cool period.

All for now!
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Saturday, September 12, 2009

Nicer weather on the way! Many saw it today! More tomorrow!

The weather stayed cool, breezy in the north today, and even showery in Maryland. Temps stay in the 60s and lower 70s. Many other areas broke into sunshine and much nice temperatures. This better weather should overspread the whole area and it will be nice until Friday when rain could return.

Of note, Fred has dissipated and the tropics are now calm again.

This last slow moving Nor'easter was a pain to deal with. I thought it would rain many days in Northern Virginia and it did not. Rain did hit the eastern shore and the Outer banks and Eastern North Carolina had a ton of rain as well. I am sorry to those in that region as this was significant!

All for now!

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Cloudy and cool for areas of Northern VA and MD - Clearing south

Where clouds persist today temps will only be around 70 to 75. If the sun is out, expect low 80s in your area. 80 to 85 degrees looks likely tomorrow and a drying trend with temps in the 80 to 85 degrees range. The drying looks to stay most of the week.

All for now!

Friday, September 11, 2009

Cool and Wet North and Eastern areas - nice west and south

Quite a bit of rain falling along the coast and in Northern Virginia and Maryland. This will continue today and slowly subside over the next 24 hours becoming less later today. I do suspect some local flooding is occurring along the Delmarva and that may be an issue.

The Low slowly departs on Saturday and will leave drier air finally and a warmer.

Areas not seeing rain, will likely see sun today and highs around 80 (Along Mountains and Southern areas). Cool 60s for others.

A dry an seasonal forecast for the early part of the week.

All for now.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Wet forecast will subside Saturday! Fred could be a major Hurricane soon

Cool and damp! Highs 70s to around 80 in some places. Rain chances will not be great until later today, tonight, and tomorrow.
This is a bit tricky of a forecast. Mountain areas up to I-95 will not see a great amount of rain. The Eastern shore and coastal regions could see very heavy rains especially later today and tomorrow.Thunder on the coast could very easily be possible. The Easterly flow will increase over the next 24 hours. Areas to the west of the Low off the coast will see a good chance of rain and some heavy later today. As the Low moves westward and the High in New England strengthens more rains are forecast to push west. Rains in Northern VA and Maryland could get heavy tomorrow as well.

I would suspect flood watches o\along the coast and possible further inland tomorrow.

The system will slowly lift out and slow drying will occur Starting Friday and finally truly arriving Saturday.

Fred is up to 105 mile per hour winds. Looks like he will head to sea. All for now!

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Fred was born last night - Rainy day - Cool

Highs will be in the 70s today with quite a bit of showers.All this is due to the low coming up the East Coast and High pressure to the North East spreading rains inland. Showery weather will persist through Thursday and even into Friday. Today will be more uniform rains east of the mountains and somewhat heavy on the coast. Today will be the best chance of rain for the week as the low off the east coast will shift Northeastward and more out to sea. Persistent easterly winds will not let the chance of showers stop however all week!

Fred was named late last night and is packing winds at 50 mph. He has re-formed further south than his original thought to be center but he will likely curve into colder waters in the next few days. He could easily be at Hurricane strength by tonight or tomorrow morning.

All for now!

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Monday, September 07, 2009

London weather - Fred looking more likely

Rain chances will continue to increase area wide, but especially along the coastal plain east of I-95. This is in response to a trough to the west and a slow moving low off the Carolina coast. Rain chances will be somewhat less after today and tonight, but persist all week. Temps will pretty much be in the mid 70s to some low 80s.

The Tropical disturbance off the African coast has been upgraded to likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. He still looks very healthy. The system will likely curve north as all models show and be a "Fish Storm" as they are referred as.

All for now!

Sunday, September 06, 2009

Changes! A little better chance of rain sooner - Tropics may get Fred

Well, when I took some time this evening to do a bit more analysis I saw several things I missed.
First, West Virginia is getting quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some will spill into far western and southwestern Virginia.

Second, with the onshore flow, several showers and storms hit the Delmarva today and the Eastern Shore. This will persist!

Last, the system just off Africa could be Fred if it holds.. but he will likely be a fish storm!

So the easterly flow and a Cold Air Damming episode will set up and make the week pretty cool and cloudy with drizzle and light rain at night, and showers possible every day. This will be especially true in the Mountains with the up slope and the coastal plains with showers coming off the ocean. Of note, as the low off the SC coast slowly moves north, areas to the west and just to its north could see quite a bit of rain and even some severe weather is possible. Boating interests should take note as the persistent flow off the ocean and the gradient from this low and the High to the north will make the seas rough.

The week will see persistent East and Northeast winds and with the low approaching from the south , Southeastern Virginia and Eastern North Carolina could see quite a bit of rain.

Tracking 96L he looked pretty well together and the NHC has it currently as a moderate chance of a tropical system in the next 48 hours!

I will have some updates in the morning, but a showery and cool forecast is upon us.

All for now!!

Nice day for some, but rain southwest and southeast- all slowly turn to clouds - light rain

We will have another nice day, but clouds will start to filter out the sun as the area is going under easterly winds. The questions on the future of the weather is how much the Low off the East coast, as it drifts north and how close it is to the coast. We will have to see. I do suspect the mountains will see more clouds and showers in the next few days. I do think the coast will also see a cloud deck come onshore and then sending the area into a cooler pattern. There is a chance that it could get rather full of drizzle starting Tuesday, but light rain showers could be present tomorrow later in the day straight through Thursday.

Southwestern Virginia and Western North Carolina as well as far eastern North Carolina could see rain, and much of the west and east are in clouds.

Tropics Remain calm.

What will the winter hold? I do not know yet, but there are some interesting things that are showing up that make me think this could be a stormy and snowy one for many areas. More coming on this, and this year I WILL post a winter weather outlook sometime later in October or possibly early November.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

All is quiet! Even the tropics

This is a quiet weather day for the Mid Atlantic area and the eastern
US for the most part. The tropics have calmed and we are just looking
at seasonable temps in the 80s! You really cannot ask for much better.

Tropics have 2 areas of some fire up but nothing much to speak about
as conditions are not favorable for development.

So it is Aeration and Seeding time so I will do a plug for my buddy's
Aeration company because he is a great friend and will do a top notch
Seriously, a great thing to do this time of year and he is one of the
most quality guys you will ever find!

All for now!

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Bit warm today - but nice - Maybe a shower or two Monday

Today will be a bit warmer than I first had thought we would see this weekend, but that is good for the last pool weekend of the summer.
We will continue pretty much dry. Monday could have some showers especially in the mountains. The rest of the week looks pretty dry, but Thursday and Friday a front will approach, but does not looks strong. Some showers could occur then.

Other than this, pretty much we will have seasonal temperatures.

Tropics: Tropics have calmed. there is a disturbance west of the Cape Verde that is showing a medium potential for possible tropical formation. As of now, I am not thinking much will occur.

Of note, Josh Morgerman of went and witnessed (chased) Hurricane Jimena when she came ashore on the Baja of California.. His posts at the Eastern Us Wx Forum are worth a read!

Please get out and enjoy the weekend!


Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Beautiful upper 70s and low 80s - De\ry forecast - Erika posing more of an East Coast Threat

Another delightful day with the area seeing temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The low to mid 80s on temperatures looks to persist through the Labor Day weekend with dry weather!

Erika is not well organized but producing impressive convection! The cloud tops were extremely cold last night. She appears to have reformed her center and latest guidance is putting her further into  threatening zone for an East Coast Hit. As of now, she does not look like she will be able to reach Hurricane status so a heavy rain producing storm is the threat I am seeing. FL, GA, SC, and NC should be taking note of her forecast. I suspect South Carolina or North Carolina could see her hit, with GA not too far out of the question. FL is a threat, a but a turn up the East Coast seems more probable at this time.

On the other coast, Baja is getting slammed by Jimena> she is not the seriously strong 155mph storm she was, but will be a tough storm no matter what packing 105 mph winds this morning. The Eastern US WX board has one member who is out in it Also, msnbc article from this morning

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Tuesday, September 01, 2009

40s! How about that for cool! Erika was born - possible East Coast threat - longer term a bit uncertain!

40s tonight and maybe 30s in the mountains of West Virginia! Tomorrow will start a warming trend with 70s and low 80s for most area. Then 80s return to the region except the mountains by Thursday.Seasonal temps in the 80s will continue through the weekend with a pretty dry streak. The models have backed off a bit from another warm surge next week as new models are showing a strong low in Eastern Canada funneling somewhat cooler air over us. Things are in flux due to this.

Tropics: Erika has been named in the Caribbean and I believe that the East coast could be at risk for at least a close call next week. Most likely region would be the Carolina Coast. If models change an the warmer air idea resurfaces along the East coast, we should watch the system closer.Of note, this evening she is exploding with convection and strengthening. She would be stronger if all circulation would like up properly, but this has been an issue for her for several days.

Sorry for the delays in posting! I was sick and then had to get caught up on work. I am not completely caught up, but wanted to post! I expect to be back on track the next several days as we watch Erika.

All for now!

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