11/29 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storms Possible Today:

 

There is a possibility of some thunderstorms today, some of which could produce severe winds. Overall, the day will be very windy and very rainy, especially later this morning into the mid evening.

 

OF NOTE: Our weather could get interesting Sunday into Monday... Maybe more likely next Tuesday into Wednesday. A lot of model discrepancies, but there appears to be the first real shot of a winter storm in the region during that time period! Of course, I will keep all posted.

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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11/29 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

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Severe weather is possible today and windy weather. Windy and rainy is probably more likely! A day of transition and then a cold front comes through and knocks temperatures down! There is a possibility of 2 winter storms in the next 7-10 days!

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Summary:  It is amazing that it is 60 degrees here as I write this almost at midnight! What is the deal! A strong cold front is causing a blizzard in the upper plains and severe weather in the eastern plains. These strong storms are a continued sign of an energetic Pacific Jet Stream which has been the culprit for transitional weather! As we chill down after a front Thursday to below normal  temperatures a low will be rapidly advancing across the US at a lower latitude. This COULD result in the first measurable snow for northern areas! Then a follow up system MAY come up towards the area and this too could cause snow.. or a snow to rain scenario! It is possible we could get seriously cold again, but it is all hard to tell! My confidence lowers dramatically after Sunday, but I would say the chances of a small snow storm or light snow event is possible for northern areas (probably north of Fredericksburg and west of I-95 up through Philadelphia.) but it is all in models now! The follow up system to this weekend appears to have a better potential at significant snows!

 

   

Tropics: Delta is heading east! Towards Morocco! Crazy wild year!

  

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community has grown to 31 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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11/26 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

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Cold weather is on the retreat for us.  Though I had some hope presented by models of its sticking capabilities, the weather pattern did as I expected in my winter outlook! With developments in the Sea Surface Temperatures, I think the winter outlook will continue to come true!  We have some rain Monday through Wednesday and mild temperatures. Some signs of colder weather for this next weekend. Again, will it stick?

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Summary:  Progressive pattern means, when we get cold, we cannot stay cold.. but also, when we get warmer, we cannot stay warmer!  And this week gives us just that scenario! We start off today really cold, and yet will warm up 10 degrees from yesterday (still very cool) and then tomorrow about 10 more degrees and then, Monday 10 to 15 degrees! Monday may have places flirting with 70 in the south! We also introduce showers into the forecast and could have some ok rains in the west… There goes the snow pack. But there are now signs of another cold snap next weekend. Timing of features related to the colder air will be a bit difficult, but this looks like a New England snow. There are thoughts that maybe a blocking pattern will show up this coming weekend. We will see.

   

Tropics: Delta is slowly falling apart.

  

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community has grown to 30 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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11/23/2005 Snowshowers in the Forecast

Some Snowshowers Possible overnight!

 

I understand there were snow showers around yesterday evening for people east of the mountains, well it appears this possibility is becoming more likely overnight tonight. It appears that a clipper system (quick moving storms from Canada) will quickly overtake the area this evening and areas west of 95, especially the northern Half of Virginia and all of western MD, will see some brief, wind whipped, snow showers tonight. There may be enough now to whiten the ground in spots, but, typically these storms do not drop much snow for the region. The result tomorrow, will be very cold and windy conditions tomorrow!

 

Of note, the Great Lakes will be providing serious amounts of Lake Effect Snow the next few days! Also, northern New England  will also see some good snows.

 

This is just a Holiday sampler!

 

There were signs that a true snowstorm may take shape next week. The last several model runs have started to change the direction and may actually bring in warmer temperatures. I will keep you posted if things change!

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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11/21 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

 

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Rainy! Downright RAINY! Higher mountain snows will commence overnight. A chance of a flurry or snow shower Wednesday night, especially higher elevations. Very cold temps to follow and there are still hints of a storm right around the 1^st day of December

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Summary:  This will be a very wet storm, especially southeastern Virginia. HPC has that area in the 3 inch plus range. The colder air will slowly turn precip to snow in the mountains. I do not expect any snow showers east of the mountains now. A clipper will be coming our way Wednesday night. A snow shower or flurry may make it to the region, but not as convinced of this. North of here and in the mountains there appears to be a good chance. The biggest thing it will bring, is windy and very cold thanksgiving day temps! 

 

Looking Out for Winter Storms:  There are hints that a system could come and cause Virginia its first snows around the 1^st. A lot of time to look into this. Do not expect a huge warm up after Wednesday of this week! Temps through early next week will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

 

Tropics:  Nothing to note today

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 28 members and surpassed 6000 posts!. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

 

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Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

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11/20 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

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Looks like a really rainy and cold Monday, then rain changing to snow in the Mountains later Monday night and Tuesday. Another brief shot of snow Thursday morning that many could see. Then we may actually mild up a little, before another big storm the following week. Pattern evolution will be interesting to watch, but hard to pinpoint.

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Summary:  The storm will likely be a rain event for most with rain changing to snow in the mountains. The mountains could see significant snow (thinking 4-8 inches). As the storm spins by it MAY be able to wrap colder air into it and cause a quick changeover to snow from I-95 west (be just a snow shower). A cold and windy day Tuesday and then a brief dry day Wednesday. A clipper will come through Wednesday night into Thursday and this could cause a period of snow showers, especially in the north. A windy and cold Thursday will then be on tap. Where do we go from there? I am a bit less optimistic of a snow storm right after this as we could see dry conditions. That being said, another big Nor’easter may come early to mid week the following week! This pattern is active and does seem to be favorable for more snow chances so I will tell you to keep posted and get ready as the weather forecast will be refined many times.

 

Tropics: Gamma is falling apart. Her moisture will help aid in this upcoming storm to make it quite wet!

 

  

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 28members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

---

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11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!

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Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

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Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!

 

Summary:  Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!

 

Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!

 

The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast!  This should be a busy week!

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

---

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11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!

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Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

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Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!

 

Summary:  Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!

 

Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!

 

The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast!  This should be a busy week!

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

---

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11/14 DC/MD/VA Weather Outllook

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OK.. Tropics remain active as Gamma may be born today! Colder air is invading this side of the globe and could provide a progressively colder pattern. Could it flurry this Wednesday evening.. in the west..yes? Showers possible tonight tomorrow and Wednesday.. best bet Wednesday. Cooler air comes in and Thursday and Friday may be the coldest of days. Another reinforcing shot of cooler air Sunday may bring showers of rain and again snow showers in the west. 

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Summary:  There are signs of a progressively colder pattern and this is encouraging for winter lovers! Without a Negative NAO and some other signals coming into play we have some time before the real locking power of colder conditions. But, temperatures will get knocked down and we will have less of a chance to stay warm long based on the pattern changes. Rain showers with the front Wednesday may be either accompanied by strong winds or even strong storms. After the front comes through, temps will cool dramatically and the mountains and immediate piedmont. Will have to wait and see. 

 

Tropics:  Gamma seems inevitable. The chances for a US landfall are not there, but still, what a crazy year!

 

Looking Out for Winter: Well, the Polar Vortex (or one of them) seems to be ready to take up residence in Canada and there are slow signs of a southward movement. This will prove to increase cold temps and increase Canadian snow cover, which has really taken off, but is not a deep snow pack yet. The pattern does not show the Negative NAO yet, but this is good in general. As mentioned, there is a chance for a passing snow shower Wednesday Evening in the west and maybe a rain or snow shower Saturday Night into Sunday morning. Will watch.

 

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 27 members. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

 

Need a Hosting Solution? My host is incredible. Now offering 60 GB of storage and 300 GB of transfer a month, unlimited email addresses, ftp accounts, and unlimited number of domain names pointing to the same server,  I have found nothing better! Also, reliable as ever! http://www.vodahost.com?a_aid=0048a41a

 

Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

11/14 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

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OK.. Tropics remain active as Gamma may be born today! Colder air is invading this side of the globe and could provide a progressively colder pattern. Could it flurry this Wednesday evening.. in the west..yes? Showers possible tonight tomorrow and Wednesday.. best bet Wednesday. Cooler air comes in and Thursday and Friday may be the coldest of days. Another reinforcing shot of cooler air Sunday may bring showers of rain and again snow showers in the west.  

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Summary:  There are signs of a progressively colder pattern and this is encouraging for winter lovers! Without a Negative NAO and some other signals coming into play we have some time before the real locking power of colder conditions. But, temperatures will get knocked down and we will have less of a chance to stay warm long based on the pattern changes. Rain showers with the front Wednesday may be either accompanied by strong winds or even strong storms. After the front comes through, temps will cool dramatically and the mountains and immediate piedmont. Will have to wait and see. 

 

Tropics:  Gamma seems inevitable. The chances for a US landfall are not there, but still, what a crazy year!

 

Looking Out for Winter: Well, the Polar Vortex (or one of them) seems to be ready to take up residence in Canada and there are slow signs of a southward movement. This will prove to increase cold temps and increase Canadian snow cover, which has really taken off, but is not a deep snow pack yet. The pattern does not show the Negative NAO yet, but this is good in general. As mentioned, there is a chance for a passing snow shower Wednesday Evening in the west and maybe a rain or snow shower Saturday Night into Sunday morning. Will watch.

 

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 27 members. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

 

Need a Hosting Solution? My host is incredible. Now offering 60 GB of storage and 300 GB of transfer a month, unlimited email addresses, ftp accounts, and unlimited number of domain names pointing to the same server,  I have found nothing better! Also, reliable as ever! http://www.vodahost.com?a_aid=0048a41a

 

Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Water Damage? Entertaining? Pet issues? Allergy problems? Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others! http://www.acleanercarpetco.com Residential and Commercial! (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

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11/12 2005-2006 Winter Outlook

2005-2006 Winter Outlook

 

I will make this more formal soon!

 

I am on board with a normal to slightly above normal winter. However, the SST's off the east coast and in the Gulf I think will (and have already proven to do so) aid to very moist storms up the East Coast. With that in mind, in the brief colder snaps (I think most will last for about a week.if not briefer. like we have seen) I see very energetic storms forming with abilities for Severe weather in the Southeast and also strong Nor'easters. So, if cold enough, the storms that do occur should have great potential for large amounts of precip and of course Snow! So, snow should be above normal in the Piedmont and interior Upper Mid Atlantic (VA, MD, PA, NJ) and New england, with coastal plains dealing with a lot of turnover or mix scenarios.. not surprising, as strong storms should throw warm air off the oceans inland.. and with warmer sea temps, this does not look good for areas east of I-95 in the Mid Atlantic in general.

Restating: Brief cold snaps and large storms.. a few storms should make above normal snow piedmont and higher elevations of the Mid Atlantic, and also in interior New England. Normal to slightly above normal temperatures overall.

Factors considered:
Slow Snow cover expansion in Canada (Just a trend I am watching)
Cold pool off Pacific NW Coast (Not good)
Warmer waters (at least for now) off East (Strengthens East Coast Storms)
Weather trends seen this fall. (Drought buster and Tropical systems)
ENSO.. Not a factor this year
Not a big analog person as I have seen this hurt some forecasts dramatically! (Last year comes to mind)
And yes.. the watch of other meteorologist's predictions. (Helps confirm or challenge my thinking)

 

That is it. I will make it more fromal soon!

 

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11/12 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook!

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My life has been so busy! Sorry I have been unable to post or even update the web site. I turned it to winter mode, but have no linked the winter outlooks or any of the other winter links I really want up there! As far as the weather.. Cold shots in the midst of a warm fall! Next Thursday looks like a serious cold shot but sticking cold s till beyond the horizon!

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Summary:  Cold this morning with lows hitting freezing in many locations that have not seen it. We warm to near normal temps today, but back 5-10 degrees warmer than normal tomorrow! Next week we look much colder after Tuesday and a front. There could be some showers and storms with the front  but the real story will be the winds that usher in the colder . Thursday’s highs could be in the 40s for many, but night time lows could hit the low to mid 20s for some!

 

Tropics: Could see some development of a system in the Caribbean.  But this will be the last tropical thing I put in there!

 

The look out for Winter: Canada’s snow cover has done some great advancing. The storm that causes our cold will be the upper plains first big snow storm.. well.. the one a few weeks back was not too shabby either. Sticking cold looks like it may hit after or around Thanksgiving. Next weeks cold shot is nothing too small though so it is good news!

 

Winter Outlook out in a few! I do not have the SST map analysis done though!

  

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 25 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Water Damage? Entertaining? Pet issues? Allergy problems? Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others! http://www.acleanercarpetco.com Residential and Commercial! (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

And by K&H Lawn Service. They plow Too! Better get ready for teh snow! Serving No.VA http://www.kandhlawnservice.com  or call (703) 849 - 0713

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

---

Yahoo! FareChase - Search multiple travel sites in one click.