Tuesday, June 29, 2010
The cool down begins|Alex to be a hurricane
Alex looks to become a Hurricane later this morning. He may take aim on the far southern shores of Texas or Northern Mexico. He is currently 70 mph winds. He has continued a more northward trend than thought. This has raised the risk of a Texas hit. The longer he takes to turn the higher the risk. Models unanimously agree that he will likely curve and hit just below the Texas/Mexico border http://www.midatlanticweather.com/images/tropical/plotsystemmodels_NT__1_atlantic_merc_o1440x1080_555_M1122_M127_M0056_1280x960_640_480.png
He will likely become a strong Category 1 storm or possibly Category 2.
As of now, no other disturbances in the tropics.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Severe Weather Likely this Aftenoon
All for now!
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Sunday, June 27, 2010
Super hot today
today and heat indexes 100 to 105 for many. Not fun!
Alex barely a storm now will emerge and re-strenghten in the lower
gulf. He could become a Hurricane and will likely hit Mexico South of
Texas, but I would watch out for him down there. Sone are forecasting
him to make it to category 2 status or even possibly higher.
--
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
HOT! Tropical Storm Alex|Cool down still in the works
Alex was born this morning. He has strengthened to 45 mph winds and is looking better and better on Satellite. The Yucatan will weaken him and then he will emerge in the SW part of the Gulf. Models are showing him strengthening then into a Hurricane. As of now, the track may be northern Mexico or Far South Texas coast - BUT - it is WAY too early to be that specific. Interests in the TX to LA area should stay tuned to the storm!
More to come on Alex and another Tropical Wave later today!
The Expansion of Mid Atlantic Weather is moving onward! I will be sharing more later today. As a hint! Please get some weather Pictures ready to share!
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Friday, June 25, 2010
TD1
Jun 2010 17:16:57 -0500000
WTNT41 KNHC 252216
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.
THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
--
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Not as hot or humid with 80s|Weekend is hot|bigger cool down a coming
Tropics: The Caribbean system looks more healthy and a tropical depression could form before it crosses the Yucatan. When it re-emerges in the Gulf it may make it to Alex. Another wave in the Atlantic looks somewhat impressive as well.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Severe weather possible this afternoon
All for now!
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So very Hot!Severe storms possible|Some relief|More heat,then biigger relief - Tropical troubles
Tomorrow we will see less humid conditions and little cooler air. Some areas will stay in the upper 80s in the north, and the south will see a bit less humid 90s. The heat engine will get cranked up again this weekend and cause temps again to go to the low and mid 90s Saturday and mid an upper 90s Sunday. Monday should have more storminess and then a real break with people seeing highs in the mid 80s to around 90. I do believe that the temps will again climb for the Holiday weekend.
Tropics continue to be active and I see a very likely scenario that a tropical storm will form down there by Sunday if not sooner. Models are now more favoring the western Gulf for a landfall, but that will become better defined once we really see a system.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
The Heat is really HOT! Concerns are growing for the GULF!
Storms could fire again today and some could be severe and the Severe Storms Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a lot of the area for potential severe storms. Winds are really the main concern in them today.
Tomorrow will have the hottest temps we have seen in some time. I HATE hot weather!
Some relief will be possible Friday as we *cool* to upper 80s and lower 90s. A better cooler shot of mid and upper 80s could visit the region towards the middle of next week after more storms Sunday and Monday
Tropics: The wave impacting Haiti and the Dominican Republic appears on MODELS to mean business early next week. Alex looks like a strong possibility to form and be a serious threat to the Gulf States. This could be a serious storm or even Hurricane by then. Please note that Media will really start speaking of the possibility and, with such a warm ocean, we are likely to see something!
Of note, another tropical system is also showing signs of strengthening in the middle Atlantic.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Hottest Spring on Record - more to come!
above, and DC is nearing 16. It is not hard to determine how hot the
summer will be. Very hot. The area is likely to see temps at or above
100 tomorrow for many and heat advisories and excessive heat warnings
have been issued. Hard to believe that a record snowy year is setting
hottest year as well!
The Atlantic is hot too! The Caribbean has an impressive tropical wave
and may spawn a tropical depression.
Air Quality has been bad and some areas have issues code red
(Richmond) tomorrow!
The theme of the summer will be played out the next 2 weeks. Many
tropical systems, heat waves, will be the headlines!
More to come!
--
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The heat rolls on - AIr quality poor - Severe threat
is a chance of storms later today, especially across the North. Some
storms could be severe so the SPC has outlined the Northern Half of
VA, MD, Northern WV, DC, NJ, and PA for a Slight chance of Severe
weather.
Hotter conditions seem likely tomorrow and Thursday with Highs
reaching the mid and upper 90s. Thursday could see many reaching 100.
Also, the humidity is likely to increase.
News will be updated later highlighting the regions warmest Spring on
record. http://news.midatlanticweather.com
Tropics: Signs are pointing to a caribbean development in the next few
days. Long term models SCARE me with a hit in the Gulf
All for now!
--
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Welcome Summer! Heat goes on!
The tropics are a little busy. 92L is sticking together, though not very organized. It may have a chance to strengthen some when it emerges into the Gulf. Models are picking up on a possible development in the Caribbean in the next week. We will have to watch and see.
All for now.
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Sunday, June 20, 2010
Happy Father's Day! HOT!
streak of 90s will persist! Highs Tuesday may hot 100 for some. A
stray storm cannot be ruled out, but Wednesday through Saturday could
hold some relieving showers and storms.
And Mid Atlantic Weather will continue to grow! Weather news stories
and News about Mid Atlantic Weather can now be found at
http://news.midatlanticweather.com
All for now!
Jimmy
--
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Friday, June 18, 2010
Hot streak is coming
humidity, a nice breeze, at least in Northern VA. Today will still be
less humid with temps in the north still in the 80s. Temps from
Central VA south will still be in the 90s. 90 and above temps will
also be felt by all, except the mountains and immediate coastal areas,
from Saturday to at least Thursday of next week. By Saturday
afternoon, Humidity will also return. Air Quality is also likely to
deteriorate.
Tropics have a potent wave over the Lesser Antilles, but I am not
expecting development at this time.
Just Lazy, Hazy and Crazy days of summer ahead!
--
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Thursday, June 17, 2010
Hot stretch
and tomorrow while central and Southern VA, and NC continue their
stretch of 90s.
90 or above will be the daily highs starting today Saturday through at
least Wednesday of next week. Low to mid 90s north, and mid and Upper
90s South with even a chance at 100 Sunday Central and Southern VA,
and more likely NC.
Tough weather time ahead!
All for now!
--
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Cooler North - Showers and storms in South VA and NC - More rain and Severe Risk tomorrow
Temps in the low and mid 80s north and upper 80s to 90 south today and tomorrow.
Temps will stay in the 80s north for Thursday and approach 90 Friday.
Widespread 90s will persist in the south.
90s will be the rule for the whole area all weekend, and mid 90s to the south!
A hot and humid weekend will be in store for all and more storm chances Sunday North.
Longer term is showing signs of a serious heat wave towards the end of the month and start of July.
The Tropics remain interesting. The 92L system has pulsed stronger overnight and may be a Tropical Depression. Its fate will be strong wind shear which will likely pull it apart within the next 48 hours. Another wave on its heels is being watched as well. See http://tropicalweather.blogspot.com for information.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Very Hot and Humid with Isolated storms - heat relief coming!
Off and on shower chances will occur tomorrow and more widespread, needed rains will visit Wednesday.
All for now!
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All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather continues to grow!
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Heavy rains likely this afternoon
heavy showers and storms due to the moist air mass. Some storms could
reach severe levels.
More showers and storms tomorrow before a cool down for a few days.
More later!
--
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Saturday, June 12, 2010
Mid Atlantic Weather continues to grow!
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HOTTER and More HUMID tomorrow!
Monday will repeat this all over again before a few days of break in oppressive heat, but do not get used to it! More heat will build by Thursday as we again approach the 90 to 95 degree mark.
This is likely the pattern for Summer too! High heat and Humidity will be a repeat performance week after week with little respites between.
There is quite an interesting feature out in the Middle Atlantic as well and it may be the first tropical storm in a few days if it strengthens. Of note, middle and eastern Atlantic Tropical Storm formation most years is later in the season and the fall. This year temps are very warm so a tropical system could form out that far. This is the fear this year as well. The Atlantic is a very hot steam bath this year and will likely yield many storms. We can hope they stay at sea, though signs are there that this will be a bad year. I am serious when I ask for prayer this year as it could be very bad for many people.
All for now!
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Severe Weather possible this afternoon - Storms already marching East
Some storms have popped severe weather. The Severe Storm Center has raised a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a Large part of Eastern Virginia (just east of the Immediate Mountain Piedmont). A Severe Line of storms is marching east across the state! Please stay tuned to local News and Weather Outlets for Warnings.
All for now!
Jimmy
Friday, June 11, 2010
Hot and Steamy weather as well as heavy rains are coming
upper 80s and low 90s. Heat index will also climb! A very heavy rain
tomorrow night seems possible and flash floods and heavy rains looks
to be on the way. Sunday and Monday will be miserable with high temps
90 to 95 and heat index values approaching and exceeding 100 degrees
both days.
Scattered showers and storms are also possible Sunday and Monday with
locally heavy rains. Cooler low and mid 80s will arrive Tuesday!
All for now!
Jimmy
--
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Thursday, June 10, 2010
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Monday, June 07, 2010
Sunday, June 06, 2010
Tornado Watches Posted for a large Part of PA, MD, Northern Half of VA, DE, NJ
Please stay tuned to local news and weather outlets!
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Saturday, June 05, 2010
Friday, June 04, 2010
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Severe Weather likely this afternoon - DC, Northern VA, MD, DE, NJ, Southeast PA
Winds and hail look to be the main threat.
All for now.
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
Summer like weather remains - more storms tomorrow
storms enter the area tomorrow and Friday. Temps in the mid and upper
80s those days.
Unsettled with a chance of storms through Sunday - highs remain in the
mid and upper 80s through Sunday.
--
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