Tuesday, June 29, 2010

The cool down begins|Alex to be a hurricane

Today we will still see highs 90 to 95 but we should notice that the humidity begins to go down! This will be welcome! Temps will then really fall to the low and mid 80s maybe even the upper 70s Thursday Temps will then begin a step up daily Friday, Saturday, and then back to the 90s by Sunday and Monday. Today will make it day 18 of 90 or above for June in the DC area which will tie or break the record for June for the number of days at or above 90! http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/06/june_heat_record_at_risk.html for some stats.

Alex looks to become a Hurricane later this morning. He may take aim on the far southern shores of Texas or Northern Mexico. He is currently 70 mph winds. He has continued a more northward trend than thought. This has raised the risk of a Texas hit. The longer he takes to turn the higher the risk. Models unanimously agree that he will likely curve and hit just below the Texas/Mexico border http://www.midatlanticweather.com/images/tropical/plotsystemmodels_NT__1_atlantic_merc_o1440x1080_555_M1122_M127_M0056_1280x960_640_480.png
He will likely become a strong Category 1 storm or possibly Category 2.
As of now, no other disturbances in the tropics.






Monday, June 28, 2010

Severe Weather Likely this Aftenoon

As a cold front approaches the area this afternoon, strong to Severe storms are likely to form High winds is the likely severe element in the storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally, very heavy rains are possible in some storms. Please stay alert to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings.

All for now!

 
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Sunday, June 27, 2010

Super hot today

Not a lot of time to post. Expect temps within a few degrees oif 100
today and heat indexes 100 to 105 for many. Not fun!

Alex barely a storm now will emerge and re-strenghten in the lower
gulf. He could become a Hurricane and will likely hit Mexico South of
Texas, but I would watch out for him down there. Sone are forecasting
him to make it to category 2 status or even possibly higher.

--
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Saturday, June 26, 2010

HOT! Tropical Storm Alex|Cool down still in the works

It will be very hot today and tomorrow! Tomorrow could again see temperatures in the upper 90s to 100! Pop up storms could fire this afternoon and a better chance tomorrow. Monday will be a bit cooler with temps still 90 to 95. When the front clears, cooler air will visit and arrive in force Wednesday through Friday when temps will be more in the 80s than the 90s. Severe weather may also be something to content with as this cold front moves through.

Alex was born this morning. He has strengthened to 45 mph winds and is looking better and better on Satellite. The Yucatan will weaken him and then he will emerge in the SW part of the Gulf. Models are showing him strengthening then into a Hurricane. As of now, the track may be northern Mexico or Far South Texas coast - BUT - it is WAY too early to be that specific. Interests in the TX to LA area should stay tuned to the storm!

More to come on Alex and another Tropical Wave later today!

The Expansion of Mid Atlantic Weather is moving onward! I will be sharing more later today. As a hint! Please get some weather Pictures ready to share!

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Friday, June 25, 2010

TD1

Atlantic Tropical Depression ONE Special Discussion Number 1Fri, 25
Jun 2010 17:16:57 -0500000

WTNT41 KNHC 252216

TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE

DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED

CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004

MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING

INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE

AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT

REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER

LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE

TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF

INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS

300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF

MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH

SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE

DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING

THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND

GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE

SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY

BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT

12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT

36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT

96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT

120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

--
Sent from my mobile device

Not as hot or humid with 80s|Weekend is hot|bigger cool down a coming

The storms yesterday were not widespread when they hit VA, but some places had some severe. Today we *COOL* to the upper 80s to around 90 for most and a less humid northerly wind will blow through making it very nice in comparison the last several days. We will heat up again tomorrow and Sunday with afternoon or evening thunder for most. Temps will be around 90 Monday and then cooler low and mid 80s appear likely Tuesday through Thursday next week. Some concern on Monday for Severe weather.

Tropics: The Caribbean system looks more healthy and a tropical depression could form before it crosses the Yucatan. When it re-emerges in the Gulf it may make it to Alex. Another wave in the Atlantic looks somewhat impressive as well.


Thursday, June 24, 2010

Severe weather possible this afternoon


 
Scattered storms will develop this afternoon and have the potential to become severe with high winds. Please stay alert and tune in to news and weather outlets for potential watches and/or warnings.

All for now!

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So very Hot!Severe storms possible|Some relief|More heat,then biigger relief - Tropical troubles

It very well could be the hottest day of the Summer so far. Temps will reach 100 for many and this, combined with humidity, will make it rough. The air quality is also poor prompting code orange and red days for metropolitan areas. This afternoon scattered storms will likely fire up and could become severe. High winds are the biggest threat.

Tomorrow we will see less humid conditions and little cooler air. Some areas will stay in the upper 80s in the north, and the south will see a bit less humid 90s. The heat engine will get cranked up again this weekend and cause temps again to go to the low and mid 90s Saturday and mid an upper 90s Sunday. Monday should have more storminess and then a real break with people seeing highs in the mid 80s to around 90. I do believe that the temps will again climb for the Holiday weekend.

Tropics continue to be active and I see a very likely scenario that a tropical storm will form down there by Sunday if not sooner. Models are now more favoring the western Gulf for a landfall, but that will become  better defined once we really see a system.


Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The Heat is really HOT! Concerns are growing for the GULF!

Today and Tomorrow are likely to be the hottest days so far this year. Temps will reach very close to 100 today and likely be felt in many areas tomorrow - the Heat Index values will climb to 105+ for some and it is just going to be awful! Normal Hot weather advice is there, but also check on the elderly and anyone with special needs to be certain they are keeping cool!

Storms could fire again today and some could be severe and the Severe Storms Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a lot of the area for potential severe storms. Winds are really the main concern in them today.

Tomorrow will have the hottest temps we have seen in some time. I HATE hot weather!

Some relief will be possible Friday as we *cool* to upper 80s and lower 90s. A better cooler shot of mid and upper 80s could visit the region towards the middle of next week after more storms Sunday and Monday

Tropics: The wave impacting Haiti and the Dominican Republic appears on MODELS to mean business early next week. Alex looks like a strong possibility to form and be a serious threat to the Gulf States. This could be a serious storm or even Hurricane by then. Please note that Media will really start speaking of the possibility and, with such a warm ocean, we are likely to see something!

Of note, another tropical system is also showing signs of strengthening in the middle Atlantic.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Hottest Spring on Record - more to come!

Spring sprung with a lot of heat! Richmond has had 21 days of 90 or
above, and DC is nearing 16. It is not hard to determine how hot the
summer will be. Very hot. The area is likely to see temps at or above
100 tomorrow for many and heat advisories and excessive heat warnings
have been issued. Hard to believe that a record snowy year is setting
hottest year as well!

The Atlantic is hot too! The Caribbean has an impressive tropical wave
and may spawn a tropical depression.

Air Quality has been bad and some areas have issues code red
(Richmond) tomorrow!

The theme of the summer will be played out the next 2 weeks. Many
tropical systems, heat waves, will be the headlines!

More to come!

--
Sent from my mobile device

The heat rolls on - AIr quality poor - Severe threat

Another HOT day today with highs reaching the low and mid 90s. There
is a chance of storms later today, especially across the North. Some
storms could be severe so the SPC has outlined the Northern Half of
VA, MD, Northern WV, DC, NJ, and PA for a Slight chance of Severe
weather.

Hotter conditions seem likely tomorrow and Thursday with Highs
reaching the mid and upper 90s. Thursday could see many reaching 100.
Also, the humidity is likely to increase.

News will be updated later highlighting the regions warmest Spring on
record. http://news.midatlanticweather.com

Tropics: Signs are pointing to a caribbean development in the next few
days. Long term models SCARE me with a hit in the Gulf

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Monday, June 21, 2010

Welcome Summer! Heat goes on!

And the heat continues today with highs 90 to 95 for most and not much in the chance of rain department. Tomorrow and Wednesday's heat could be worse with temps hitting the mid and upper 90s for many! Tomorrow afternoon and evening look to begin a breakdown in the drying "cap" on the atmosphere and a daily 30 - 40% chance of rain enters the picture. This rain chance should continue until the weekend when we will continue hot, but dry.

The tropics are a little busy. 92L is sticking together, though not very organized. It may have a chance to strengthen some when it emerges into the Gulf. Models are picking up on a possible development in the Caribbean in the next week. We will have to watch and see.

All for now.

Mid Atlantic Weather News Launched this last weekend at http://news.midatlanticweather.com
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Sunday, June 20, 2010

Happy Father's Day! HOT!

The air quality is poor and it will feel like low 100s today as the
streak of 90s will persist! Highs Tuesday may hot 100 for some. A
stray storm cannot be ruled out, but Wednesday through Saturday could
hold some relieving showers and storms.

And Mid Atlantic Weather will continue to grow! Weather news stories
and News about Mid Atlantic Weather can now be found at
http://news.midatlanticweather.com

All for now!

Jimmy

--
Sent from my mobile device

Friday, June 18, 2010

Hot streak is coming

90 degree+ weather on the way to stay! Yesterday was nice - lower
humidity, a nice breeze, at least in Northern VA. Today will still be
less humid with temps in the north still in the 80s. Temps from
Central VA south will still be in the 90s. 90 and above temps will
also be felt by all, except the mountains and immediate coastal areas,
from Saturday to at least Thursday of next week. By Saturday
afternoon, Humidity will also return. Air Quality is also likely to
deteriorate.

Tropics have a potent wave over the Lesser Antilles, but I am not
expecting development at this time.

Just Lazy, Hazy and Crazy days of summer ahead!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Hot stretch

Areas of Northern VA and north will see the mid and upper 80s today
and tomorrow while central and Southern VA, and NC continue their
stretch of 90s.

90 or above will be the daily highs starting today Saturday through at
least Wednesday of next week. Low to mid 90s north, and mid and Upper
90s South with even a chance at 100 Sunday Central and Southern VA,
and more likely NC.

Tough weather time ahead!

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Cooler North - Showers and storms in South VA and NC - More rain and Severe Risk tomorrow

The Front that came through the northern areas yesterday has stalled to the south and will be a focus of heavy raining showers and storms in Southern VA and NC today. SW VA and a large part of Southern WV have flood watches posted. Warmer air and humidity will stream back north tomorrow and severe storms are possible tomorrow as a front comes through the region again.
Temps in the low and mid 80s north and upper 80s to 90 south today and tomorrow.
Temps will stay in the 80s north for Thursday and approach 90 Friday.
Widespread 90s will persist in the south.
90s will be the rule for the whole area all weekend, and mid 90s to the south!
A hot and humid weekend will be in store for all and more storm chances Sunday North.  
Longer term is showing signs of a serious heat wave towards the end of the month and start of July.

The Tropics remain interesting. The 92L system has pulsed stronger overnight and may be a Tropical Depression. Its fate will be strong wind shear which will likely pull it apart within the next 48 hours. Another wave on its heels is being watched as well. See http://tropicalweather.blogspot.com for information.

Mid Atlantic Weather continues to grow!
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Monday, June 14, 2010

Very Hot and Humid with Isolated storms - heat relief coming!

We will see another scorcher today with highs in the lower and mid 90s. Heat Index values will likely be at 100 or above this afternoon. A front will be coming through and this should trigger some thunderstorms but its trajectory and dynamics will make it somewhat limited.
Off and on shower chances will occur tomorrow and more widespread, needed rains will visit Wednesday.

All for now!

Please follow the Breaking Weather on Twitter at http://twitter.com/breakingmawx

All for now!

Mid Atlantic Weather continues to grow!
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Sunday, June 13, 2010

Heavy rains likely this afternoon

We will likely repeat temps today across the area and have the risk of
heavy showers and storms due to the moist air mass. Some storms could
reach severe levels.

More showers and storms tomorrow before a cool down for a few days.

More later!

--
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Saturday, June 12, 2010

Mid Atlantic Weather continues to grow!

Mid Atlantic Weather continues to grow!
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HOTTER and More HUMID tomorrow!

It is gonna be a scorcher as we head to the low and mid 90s tomorrow with very high humidity! Temps will feel like 100 or close to it! We will also see thunderstorms fire again and some could be severe.
Monday will repeat this all over again before a few days of break in oppressive heat, but do not get used to it! More heat will build by Thursday as we again approach the 90 to 95 degree mark.

This is likely the pattern for Summer too! High heat and Humidity will be a repeat performance week after week with little respites between.

There is quite an interesting feature out in the Middle Atlantic as well and it may be the first tropical storm in a few days if it strengthens. Of note, middle and eastern Atlantic Tropical Storm formation most years is later in the season and the fall. This year temps are very warm so a tropical system could form out that far. This is the fear this year as well. The Atlantic is a very hot steam bath this year and will likely yield many storms. We can hope they stay at sea, though signs are there that this will be a bad year. I am serious when I ask for prayer this year as it could be very bad for many people.

All for now!

Mobile at http://www.mawx.net (under construction)
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Severe Weather possible this afternoon - Storms already marching East

Severe weather is possible with a system moving east through the area.

Some storms have popped severe weather. The Severe Storm Center has raised a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a Large part of Eastern Virginia (just east of the Immediate Mountain Piedmont). A Severe Line of storms is marching east across the state! Please stay tuned to local News and Weather Outlets for Warnings.

All for now!

Jimmy

Friday, June 11, 2010

Hot and Steamy weather as well as heavy rains are coming

This weekend will really start heating up tomorrow with highs in the
upper 80s and low 90s. Heat index will also climb! A very heavy rain
tomorrow night seems possible and flash floods and heavy rains looks
to be on the way. Sunday and Monday will be miserable with high temps
90 to 95 and heat index values approaching and exceeding 100 degrees
both days.

Scattered showers and storms are also possible Sunday and Monday with
locally heavy rains. Cooler low and mid 80s will arrive Tuesday!

All for now!

Jimmy

--
Sent from my mobile device

Caroline Weather Center Forecast Update For Central VA (June 11)

http://www.carolineweathercenter.com/

Sunday, June 06, 2010

Caroline Weather Center Forecast Update For Central VA (June 6)

http://www.carolineweathercenter.com

Tornado Watches Posted for a large Part of PA, MD, Northern Half of VA, DE, NJ

Please stay very alert to the weather as a severe line of storms makes its way towards the region. Many storms are rotating which means they have the ability to produce a tornado. High winds and some hail is also possible! The line is coming into Western Maryland and NW VA now!

Please stay tuned to local news and weather outlets!

Mobile at http://www.mawx.net (under construction)
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Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com 

Other Contributors to Mid Atlantic Weather:

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Follow John Wheeler's tweets at
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http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000993377805


Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Summer like weather remains - more storms tomorrow

Summer like conditions remain with highs around 90 today. Showers and
storms enter the area tomorrow and Friday. Temps in the mid and upper
80s those days.

Unsettled with a chance of storms through Sunday - highs remain in the
mid and upper 80s through Sunday.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Caroline Weather Center Forecast Update For Central VA (June 2)

http://www.carolineweathercenter.com/

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