Sorry it has been so long since I posted. Life is crazy busy so weather becomes second or third or fourth on my list of priorities. First, the front today and colder air was not in my previous thoughts or forecast! The warmth is not as pronounced this week as I had thought, third, cold air is coming, but I am worried it is not going to last too long! Possibel wintry mix next week, but I will have to watch and see.

Summary:

OK, a front slipped through overnight and has cooled us down. It is on its way back and the overrunning warmer air could cause some rain showers overnight. Wednesday, once the cold air retreats (and as usual I am worried it will take longer than any model shows) warmer readings will set up and highs will climb. Then we have a front come through Friday and temps should drop, and be reinforced by another front that will drop them more for a cold weekend. Then what? It is sad to a snow lover to see, but the colder air will retreat a bit northward and so we head to seasonal, or even a few degrees above. That being said I do see a RISK of a storm that may bring some frozen precipitation our way early next week. If there is frozen precip, it will be a mix to rain type of scenario. Sow aht is the problem with cold air staying? Well, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has yet to show a trend towards negative for a while. It appears that the warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic keep the Higher heights in Greenland which has not allowed the block to form. This appears to continue even though the Pacific North American (PNA) ridge is finally coming to give Californians a break and warmer weather. The PNA pattern is really our only push for colder air so far this winter and it is not a completely favorable set up for east coast winter storms. The Polar Vortex (PV) is also another very important part of our winter and it is not in a location (Hudson Bay) that is needed for potential storms in the East. Basically, there is nothing favoring a stormy winter pattern now, just a colder pattern via the PNA pattern which likely means cold shots are transient for this part of the United States. That being said there is a **POSSIBILITY** that a linkage or phase of a low will cause some changes in the patterns that would cause winter to come and stay in the eastern US next week. There are some hints that this may occur, but it is a watching game right now and that is about it.

Just a reminder that I have a new Weather Forum for the region. It is not heavily used and only a few members now. I would like to see it grow and get busy during storms especially! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Cloudy. Scattered showers possible, especially overnight

Wednesday: SW: 70-80 SE: 70-80 N: 60-70 (**Concerned in the North that temps may not be this high)

Partly Cloudy. Temps in the north may have an issue if the Cold Air Damming scenario is not overcome at the beginning of the day.

Thursday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 60-70

Partly Cloudy.

Friday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50 (temps falling)

Clearing turning colder as the day progresses. (Temps may need adjusting!)

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

Saturday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Partly Cloudy.

Long Term:

Possible winter weather early the following week. Ability for cold air to stay will need to be monitored, but a moderation to normal temps seems probable at this point.

All for now!