Saturday, December 31, 2005

Look at the weather:
 
Normal to above normal temps with rain chances continuing. We have just a few showers today. Pretty cool temps today, but seasonal.
 
Another chance of rain Monday after a Sunday of slightly above normal temps.
 
Then yet more rain chances Mid Week. There is a colder shot coming Friday and This coming weekend and there are a few things to watch, but I am not convinced of snow yet.
 
Honestly I am not sure the cooler/colder pattern will last. We will have to wait and see.
 


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Wednesday, December 28, 2005

12/28 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Quick Update, because it has been too long!
 
After a very cold Month, we did  big switch in temperatures right in time for Christmas. Thus a rainy Christmas and quite the quiet down on the web site. I am sorry! After one last that will keep me from posting, I hope to get back into the swing of things!\
 
Some quick thoughts:
Why did we warm? The Undercutting of the ridge on the west coast (+PNA) pattern broke down. This has allowed the Pacific jet to really crank and cause a succession of storms to hit the west coast ad transverse the country. These storms are energetic and mild as they bring Pacific air and not arctic air.
 
Another low comes through tonight and tomorrow and then more rain/showers are expected on Saturday.
 
When will it change? There re strong hints that the end of next week could bring changes and a return to wintry weather. It is so far out, but worth noting!
 
All for today! More to come starting Friday!


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Thursday, December 15, 2005

12/15 Winter Weather Alert

Significant Icing likely for some. I-95 areas should be spared the worst

 
Cold air has really stuck well in many areas. Anyone east of the Mountains and in the Mountain valleys up to about 25 miles west of  I-95 from Baltimore to Fredericksburg and then 25 miles west of a line from Fredericksburg to Danville should see a significant Ice storm! Ice accrual will be .25 to .5”, which will be substantial enough for power outages and definitely driving problems. About 25 miles either side of that same line could see .15 to .20” of accrual. This will be hazardous as well, but also will be limited by a turnover to rain later today or this evening.
 
The Mountains from Hot Springs area northward should see a 3-6” snow with mixing of sleet a freezing rain as well. That snow will help offset some of the worst issues with the ice.
 
 
For many areas in the Southwestern Part of the state, the precipitation has already begun.
 
I expect the Northern areas will see precipitation by noon.
Precip will start as snow for most, and then mix over quickly to sleet and then Freezing rain.
 
Be Careful!
 
 


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Wednesday, December 14, 2005

12/14 Winter Weather Alert: UPDATED

Winter Weather Event will likely cause problems in the Mountains, and with commutes
 
What?
A Mixture of Snow and Sleet as well as freezing rain will hamper the Morning commute tomorrow, but the extent of the frozen precip will be lessened as the storm system is expected to run more inland as it comes towards the area. Expect most areas to see a brief mix with a quick turnover to rain. This will not be as likely far western sections of Maryland
 
A very Heavy rain event tomorrow evening for areas that see ice outside of far western Mayland and Far western Virginia, this will likley melt it!
 
Where?
Most areas will see a quick shot of some sleet and snow quickly changing to rain and freezing rain. Freezing rain will persist in the mountainous areas especially the valleys, of Virginia and Maryland. Some higher elevation of far western areas will see snow (VA and MD) and then some Ice. Snow in central and Western Pennsylvania, though Far SW PA will see a mix and even rain for a while. This storm will not be a big icing event east of the mountains.
Some thoughts on amounts:
Western Maryland (Hagerstown) could see 2-4”.. then sleet and freezing rain.. west of and including this region could see a significant Ice Storm
 
Far Western Loudoun: 1-2” Snow then Sleet and Freezing rain and rain ..
Shenandoah valley, North of Hot Springs: 1-2” snow.. then ice and sleet.. to rain.. back to snow briefly
Coastal plains east of I-95 will see little mix to quick rain.
 
I-95 cities and west to immediate Piedmont, north of Fredericksburg could see a light coating
 
Cites west of a Fredericksburg to Lynchburg line could see some coating of ice early, then a mix over to rain.
 
 
When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning
 
Comments: This system has taken on much more of a warm look. The issue will be that a little precip will cause huge problems tomorrow as it is these minor events that can snarl traffic for hours!  The Ground, especially in Northern Virginia, is frozen and many stations are reporting road temps below freezing. Long and short.. not a big event, but a big headache is possible tomorrow morning depending on when the storm starts
 
As noted, I do not have time to update the mp, but it looks wrong now!
 
Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week! Details are still being worked out!


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Tuesday, December 13, 2005

12/13 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

What?
Significant Icing event. Moderate Icing event and Light Icing event
Some Accumulating Snows
 
Where?
Significant Icing: Immediate Piedmont: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina
Major Icing: Immediate Piedmont to 35 miles west of I-95; Maryland, Virginia
North  Carolina : West Central NC
Light Icing: I-95 to about 35 miles west of  I-95: West Central NC
Snows: Higher elevations of Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. A large Part of Pennsylvania, West 40 miles west of I-95
 
When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning
 
Comments: Tough call in many ways. A lot of precip will fall over very shallow cold air. The Warm air appears to truly Surge over the area and warm areas close to or above freezing. There is a chance for significant rains as well. If things stay frozen, ice storm conditions could be reached by a lot more areas than what I am indicating on my first guess map. May issue a follow up call tomorrow night.. but my guess may be all the time I have to do.
 
 
Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week!


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Friday, December 09, 2005

12/9 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook


What an active period we just came out of. Apparent more tranquil for the next several days but cold!


Summary:  Amazing how early it is in the Winter Season and parts of the region have had 4 bouts of wintry weather in the last 3 weeks. Colder air has settled in for a while. Snow cover has overspread a huge chunk of north America.. it is turning out much colder and potentially stormier than I thought!  So far, no blockbuster storms for us, but we have a ways to go! There are indications that something could come at us towards the end of next week. We will have to see. Quite honestly, it is nice to relax a few days and enjoy the fact that it feels like winter! See storm post mortem at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 35 members and surpassed 7500 posts!. We have even added a Meteorologist (a friend of mine) who had great things to share in the last storm. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

 

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Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

Thursday, December 08, 2005

12/8 Late in the game: Last Call

My final thoughts on this one!
 
Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. Starting 8-10pm
Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Lynchburg 1"  Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Richmond: Rain
Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
DC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
Baltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 9-Midnight
Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. 8-11pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10") Starting 8-11pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 8-11pm
 
Please note.. this is a dynamic system.. it could compensate for some warmth that it is en-training off the ocean and cause places to shift between snow and sleet and freezing rain. If we get Thunderstorms( a possibility) we will see higher totals of precip in whatever type is falling on you! That could be interesting!
 
 
 
 


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12/8 Winter Weather Alert

Winter Weather Alert!
 
 
What? Winter Storm with mix and potential Ice Storm scenarios for regions.
 
When? Tonight into Friday
 
Where? Northern 1/3rd of the area, specifically Northern Virginia and Maryland , North of Fredericksburg and 25 mile either side of I-95 to see a mix of Freezing rain, sleet, and snow. More Snow Possible Far Northwestern Virginia and West of central Frederick County Maryland.  Central regions, just east of the Mountains and south of  a Fredericksburg to a Charlottesville line down to Roanoke area may meet ice storm criteria due to cold air damming.
 
How Much?
Mixed areas: 1-2 inches of snow and then a slop eastern side (I-95 and east), 2-4” western side, were more sleet will be involved verses Freezing rain.  
Areas staying all snow should see a healthy 4-8” with potential 10”+ amounts in spots.
There are signs of potential thunderstorms which will enhance precip types in all areas, and may add to totals of snow as dynamics could offset warmer air aloft.
 
Comments: This storm is still a quick mover and will give areas a quick change from no precipitation to serious amounts very quickly. Some early runs this morning indicate the possibility of less mixing. This leads me to think we could see more snow just west of I-95.. still the same regions.. north of Fredericksburg, west of  I-95.
 
More to come:
 
 
 


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Wednesday, December 07, 2005

12/7 .. DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert!

Quick hitting snowstorm will commence in the region later tomorrow through noon Friday. Southern 1/3rd of the region should see a mix to sleet and freezing rain and then rain. Norther 2/3rds a General 3-6" but chances for 2 things.. A dry slotting during energy transfers and a chance for thundersnow or convective banding which could either lessen ior intensify snow amounts..
 
Much to watch.. Take this as aGuess! That is all it is!
 
 


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Monday, December 05, 2005

12/5 Final Call Maps on 12/5 -12/6 system

This really Bucks the Models! Serious bust potential here!


This still looks pretty good, but start times!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am
Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain)  Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm
Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west than models 
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately
 


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Sunday, December 04, 2005

12/4 First Call Maps.. First call amounts

Ok. This is my first call, likely final call after next Model runs.Giving some Locations and amounts!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting Early Afternoon
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 7-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 7-9am
Richmond: 3-6" Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting noon to 3pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 5-8pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm

Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately
 


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Saturday, December 03, 2005

2nd Guess! Posted!

 
 


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12/3 Winter Weather Alert! For TONIGHT's storm

 
Second storm looking like a classic I-95 Storm now!
 
 


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12/3 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!

Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!
 
The trends of the models has been to shift heavier snow southward! Based on this, lighter Snows would be expected north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville areas. South of this down to Richmond and southwestward to Lynchburg could really be under the gun for a significant snow.  This is based on the models at this time. A new map will be issued later today or this evening. My thinking is that a pull to the north may occur.. but realistically, it could even shift further south!
 
Please Stay Tuned!


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First Guess for Monday'S Event

First Guess.. Latest Models have shifed South!
 


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Friday, December 02, 2005

12/2 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

First Real Snow Chances for the Region Monday. Appetizer tomorrow Night.
 
** Sorry to those that receive this twice. Alerts will just go to the alert email address after this one.
 
What?
2 Systems will affect the region between Today and Tuesday with Winter weather
 
System 1: No big deal, but a burst of snow and sleet should occur tomorrow evening that should last until Midnight.
 
System 2: Significant chance of a real snowstorm.
 
Where?
System 1: Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and Western Maryland. The Snow should change to rain for most regions, but North Central Maryland and the Northwestern part of Virginia.
 
System 2: All regions could see some snow, but again, best chances appear to be northern 2/3rds of Virginia, and western 2/3rds of Maryland. Snow should overtake the region and then a mix to rain, very quickly southern regions, and slowly a creep northward and westward. Right now would call for I-95 areas north of Frederickburg to see a moderate event, while areas west of this by 15 to 20 miles will see a potentially major storm.
 
How Much?
System 1: Dusting most areas at best, but 1 to as much as 3 inches in the areas staying snow or a mix. Grassy and elevated surfaces only.
 
System 2: (First Guess here) Potential exists for the Moderate areas to see 3 to 5 inches and the Major areas (mainly snow) to see 5 to 10 inches with some 12 inch readings in the higher elevations and immediate piedmont areas of Northern Virginia (North of Charlottesville and  western Maryland).
 
When?
System 1: Saturday late day through Midnight for most regions, but the areas mentioned where accumulations could occur will be through Sunday Morning.
 
System 2: Sunday Night through Monday.. possibly stretching to early Tuesday morning.
 
Comments: System 1 will not be a big deal. System 2 seriously could be, but we are early in the game on this! Shifts in the track obviously mean chances for more or less snow. As models converge on the system, updates will come. Also of note, roads are warm so salt will do a good job on helping melt the snow.
 
Expect snow impact Maps possibly tonight or tomorrow morning.. First Guess on Accumulations afternoon or evening tomorrow.
 
All for Now!


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Thursday, December 01, 2005

12/1 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook


Ok.. Winter is here! We are really in a situation the next several days and All I can say is.. I have no idea what to think!

Summary:  It is Winter! We will see a light overrunning system this weekend and then a potential bigger storm Monday/Tuesday. The situation many are hoping for (snow lovers that is!) is a  50/50 low and blocking up in Canada which will spill cold air down east of eth Mountains. When the blocking is on the models, many areas have decent snow, if it is gone.. rain. GUT call will be a western suburbs storm next week, but it has potential to be bigger and better for areas mainly I-95 and west.. The first system this Saturday night into Sunday could drop 1-4 inches in some areas. This would be the northern areas of Virginia. At this point lets say Western Loudoun, Frederick areas. A switch to rain Sunday for most lower elevation areas.
 
The bigger system will come Monday and Tuesday. I am thinking cold rain with some initial mix for areas south and east of a Charlottesville to Dulles to West of Baltimore. A longer period of snow west of that area with 1 inch close to it with up to 4inches in the Mountains and higher terrain.
 
The next storm is really up in the air. I would say the same areas have the best bet for a big snowstorm, but the areas could really go further west without any blocking in Canada!
 
Tropics:  Epsilon will hopefully be the last storm of the Season. Almost hit hurricane status yesterday but has weakened today. The season officially ended yesterday.
 
Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 32 members and surpassed 6500 posts!. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/
 
Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
 
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Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.
 
 


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