NEXT 10 DAYS...

the next 10 days will feature a number of things. first will be a warm up.. then around the 1st of jan, the NAO goes negative, with a positive PNA, a greenland block is now on the models, and we have a possible storm on coast around the 2nd and 3rd. the euro as of this writing has a storm on the coast in perfect position for a snow storm, and the gfs has a storm more inland, so we still got 10 days, so alot can happen stay tuned..

luke

MAYBE SOME ICE AT THE START.

well temps have hardly budged today its 1 30 pm and im still at 28.0F so we maybe seeing some sleet snow or ZR at the start of precip tonight, but whatever we get should be rain by tomorrow . looking ahead.. will be a warm up rest of the week. then NAO goes negative and a possible coastal by the jan 2-3,2009 time frame, but ... thats 9 days out so im sure alot will need to be re visited by then, as alot will probably change .

*** luke ***

Light mix tonight into Sunday

Everything looks colder. A very light mix will happen tonight. This will be an event for the valleys and immediate piedmont with some snow and sleet for Maryland and northern virginia with a mix of sleet and freezing rain to end. Precipitation will be light. I see a winter weather advisory being issued by 4pm today for areas along and west of i-95 down to federicksburg and west. Then mountains and immediate piedmont down to roanoke.

All for now.
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WEEKEND STORM

looking like a mix to raqin for most, ... those of you up,in central pa on north and west of I-81, may see more snow. but near the big cities and south of mason dixon, looks to be a mix to rain.. just not enough cold air gonna be entrenched at low levels or upper levels aloft... of course this can change, but this is how i see it now

*** luke ***

Updates later tonight - Light Mix followed by rains

A little more of a mix than I thought could occur, but realize that we have a rain storm, a cold one, on the way Saturday night into Sunday. The front end could feature a little snow and sleet, but count on rain.

Mountains of Northern VA and MD - Bit more snow
Valleys of Northern VA and MD - Some Ice to deal with

Overall, any mix changing to rain Sunday morning.

VERY cold Sunday later afternoon and Monday

Warming Tuesday afternoon into Christmas.

White Christmas is a No - Go for us!

All for now!
 

Not as clear cut for Sunday, but some snow is likely Saturday night

As usual for this area of the country, a clear cut snow forecast is almost impossible! And this will prove no different. I do expect there will be some snow Saturday night for northern regions, but a wintry mix is more likely into Sunday and then maybe just rain. A lot to watch and ponder and this could go either way at this point.

Jimmy
 

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM ON DEC 21-22

heres part of the discussion this morning ...

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEEP YOUR EYE ON LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN. SIG WINTER EVENT MAY BE
UNFOLDING DRG THIS TIME. GFS IS GETTING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A VERY
CLASSIC PTN FOR WINTER WX IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS W. IAD FCST
MAX TEMP OF 33 IS DOWN A DEG VERSUS YESTERDAYS MEX MAX GUIDANCE FOR
SUN AND IT WILL START OFF BELOW FRZG TO START THE EVENT.

850 MB TEMPS START THE DAY AT MINUS 7 IN THE MTNS WITH SFC SYSTEM
FCST OVR KY AT 12Z SUNDAY. 2NDRY LOW THEN BEGINS TO FORM ALG THE
CAROLINA COAST. AGAIN...STAY TUNED. IF YOU DON`T LIKE WINTER
WX...MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO CALL YOUR FAVORITE AIRLINE AND GET THAT
TICKET TO MIAMI.

looks very interesting this weekend.. stll 4 days to go, stay tuned!!

***Luke***

Rain and a little mix this morning - Showers this afternoon. Light Mix for some Thursday Night. Winter Storm possible Saturday - Sunday!

The mixing was not that impressive overnight. I am again glad I had not hyped this event, though I was so busy i would not have been able to do much this time. The showery weather will persist today, but not as much rain. Cloudy and cool conditions. Tomorrow as the day progresses more rain will start to enter the picture. Again in the northern regions some ice could occur. This looks like more of a Maryland and maybe far northern Virginia.

The bigger threat appears this Saturday night as a low pressure approaches from the south after the cold air has better settled into the region.This is too early to tell, but snow does look to break out Saturday night with a mixing in the southern regions and possible changeover to rain, while north regions change to a mix east of 95. This could be the first significant snow of teh season for a large part of the area!

All for now!

this is a nowcast situation

with all the different types of precip around, its very hard to pinpoint and predict who gets what,.. for example. at 7 pm i was getting heavy sleet and 33 degrees, now at 8 40 pm im getting a sleet rain mix at 32.7 degrees, lol so i think this is more of a now cast, meaning its ever changing, and always has to be updated with what kind of precip we have... regardless on what kind you get tonight, i think by tomorrow afternoon most should see rain. but this weekend could be interesting, but more on that later. be safe on the roads..

***LUKE***

Messy weather week!

I know many would like an update.

Right now this is a route 15 and west threat up into maryland. Sleet and some snow possible. Enough ice for a winter storm warning. The key problem spots will be the elevated surfaces. Route 15 north and west from charlottesville.

Snow and sleet the closer you are to PA. Some areas of western MD could see 2 to 4 inches of slop!

About all i have for now!
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WINTER STORM WARNING/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYS

depending upon where you live, your could have a winter storm warning( in the far western counties) to a winter weather adivsory ( for the central counties) for wintry mix and iceing conditions, this is an ever changing event, plz stay tuned, ill be updating as the day and night goes on.

***Luke***

over running rain, then maybe something wintry next weekend

looks like overrunning rain for the midweek to the end of the week. a stationary front will set up just south of us, and waves of low pressure will ride along the front. at this time it looks like rain. by the time next weekend comes around, we could have a storm coming up from the south as per day 7 of HPC proggs. of course i like say, that is 7 days out, so alot will probably change some what so stay tuned

luke

Some challenges, but a cool rainy week looks likely after a balmy day of 60s Monday!!

This week will not be entirely cut and dry when it comes to precipitation types. The reason, the cold air that may be able to seep further south than what the models currently are showing. If this occurs, some days could feature a mix of rain and snow in the northern regions. I am not sold that it will be that way, but it MAY enter teh forecast. The NWS in Sterling has just added that possibility for Tuesday and Tuesday night in Maryland and Northern Virginia. Right now, expect cold rain and maybe that some sleet could be involved Tuesday in northern regions.

Unfortunately, a chance of rain or showers will persist all week after a rather balmy Monday (Highs in the 60s) a cold front stalls over the area and is a conveyor belt for precipitation in several waves as systems ride along the front.

Why might we see some frozen precipitation out of this? A cold hogh in Eastern Canada could be stronger than forecast or further south. If either of these are true, more chances for wintry weather could nter the picture. As of this morning, I am thinking that the synoptic set up just is not right.

We look drier next weekend after the last wave of precip moves through Friday Evening. Christmas week looks seasonal early with a chance that right around Christmas day or shortly after, colder air invades!

All for now!

Jimmy

possible snow/ rain chences in december...

well we have a few chnces at something( rain or snow).. coming up.

first: dec 16th - 18th: this looks to be more of an overrunning event, waves will track west to east along a front that SHOULD be south of us, with isentropic lift ahead of waves if we are cold enough we get snow, if the front doesnt go far enough south then we get rain, still tooo early to even have an idea, and models arent agreeing right now ( whats new ).

dec 19th-21st and dec 23rd-25th: these two are on the models, but at this time are too far away to even try to have an idea, like i always say... models will change many times before the event gets here, so we have no idea at this time, but there are the possiblitys

stay tuned:

luke

NORMAL TEMPS

looking like temps will remain near or slightly above normal for the next 5 days, maybe some rain at the end of the peiod, no snow or ice storms on the horizon at least for the next 5-7 days, stay tuned...

Luke

RAIN is the headline with a little mix to make things interesting at the end

The good news at this point is that I did not over hype the chance of snow or winter weather too much on my Snow and winter weather forecast. The issue is that it will not do to much at all and what we see will not be likely to accumulate, at least in teh form of wintry weather!

We have a lot of rain that is going to fall today! In the neighborhood of 2 to 3 inches. Some areas could see 4 inches. The NWS has issues a Flood watch and I have to agree with that.

The Far Northwestern areas will see some ice late in the day and a turnover to snow is likely at some point overnight from west to east. The areas to see accumulations will be mountain areas, and some immediate valleys and piedmont could see 1 - 2 slushy inches on grassy areas. Areas east (East of I-81) will likely see just a dusting at best and then areas further east just some snow showers and not much of anything as the precipitation winds down late tonight and tomorrow morning. All that being said, it is possible some regions could see more snow west and Northwest and especially more on the west facing mountains and areas where colder air can start funneling in easier.

All in all, this is a complicated set up. There could still be some more wintry weather than what I am thinking, but, many factors are working against that so I would think a raw an very rainy day is in store!

We look to be more seasonal in temps as we go past a cold Saturday and temps could end up in the upper 40s and mid and upper 50s in parts of the region next week. We may also see more rain chances starting Monday night and lasting through Wednesday!

Summing it up.
Mountains and Immediate piedmont - lots of rain - ending with some snow 1-2 " east of mountains, 2-isolated 4" in mountains.
Immediate Piedmont up to I-95 - lots of rain, some snow at the end, likely mixed with rain - no accumulations
Mountains and west - solid 2-4" after a changeover with some ice potential as temperatures fall today and the transition time occurs
East of I-95- lots of rain - brief mix with snow at the end. Better chances further north you are

After a colder Saturday, moderation is on the way!

All for now!

Complicated! Rainy, some ice,.. likely little bit of snow

FIRST I want to say that there is going to be a lot of rain the next couple of days. In order of 2 to 4" if things pan out the way they may.

SECOND it will be very warm tomorrow and could include some thunder.

THIRD a front will swing through and how far it goes will mean a big difference in what we get weather wise. I can see sleet and some freezing rain, especially piedmont. Snow, sleet and freezing rain are likely to be along and west of the mountains.

If we see the front that will cause the rain tomorrow head further south and east than currently forecasted, we may see some more wintry weather. As of now, the areas of the immediate piedmont and mountainous regions will need to be monitored.

This is not a "set in stone" scenario and I could see some surprises, especially with ice potential as cold air damming sets up.

I will be unable to look a lot at this until tomorrow evening. I hope to have some focus by then! Luke will also look at this and keep the conversations going at the forum!

All for now!

Jimmy
 

model diagnostics

, i wanted to explain the difficulty in forecasting with the models. you see, you cant just look at the models and make a forecast. some models have a bias to them for example... the GFS has a cold bias. the ECMWF( euro) has a warm bias., so you have to factor that in... also.. the gfs is known to take a storm wayyy off shore than as days go by, start to bring it back west, so you have to really wait till it gets within 4 or 3 days before you can really make a real guess. and even only 3 days out, the models will still have their bias's, so you have to take that into account. soo... this storm coming on thursday-friday. needs to have more time, the gfs has it a bit too cold. the euro has it a bit too warm. the gfs is a little off the coast, and the ggem is a little off the coast, dgex looks good, right on the benchmark at 18z. the euro, is a tad too far inland. the ukmet, looks pretty good, so... got to take all this into
account, as most models will still fluctuate run to run. so....

basically, we probably wont a have a real good idea who gets snow, and who gets rain till about wednesday. so stay tuned... Jimmy and I will keep you posted

***luke***

LATEST ON POSSIBLE COASTAL!!

heres a excerpt from the NOAA NWS STERLING SITE IN BALTIMORE WASHINGTON AREA.....""Then the models get even more interesting...this mornings 12z European model (ecmwf)
/as well as yesterday evenings 00z European model (ecmwf)/ develops a coastal low
sweeping up the southeast coast into the middle Atlantic by 12z Friday. 12z GFS
ensembles depict a similar solution but with precipitation shield mainly to our
south and east. Am not too confident with either specific solution
at this time as timing gets worked out...but I am confident that this
mornings 12z GFS control run is not in line with the mean ensemble
products and European model (ecmwf)...and we have a highly energized atmosphere middle-
to-late work week which will pose a NE gale/precipitation risk for our County Warning Area
late Thursday into Thursday night.""

just thought id show you all whats coming down, more to come!!

***luke***

COASTAL STORM POSSIBILITY???

looking like we have a possible coastal storm for the wed night thursday- friday time frame....the latest 12z gfs, ukmet, euro, and jma, and to a lesser degree the 06z dgex... all have a coastal storm , allthough slightly at different positions, the exact positioning will need to be looked at by jimmy and myself, its still 4-5 days out, so im sure some things need to be tweaked a little, and im sure some models will fluctuate so definatley something to watch, stay tuned :)

***Luke***

WILL IT SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT?

Probably a little bit, but most will see just flurries! The most energy is headed north of the region and that will end up keeping us away from the best moisture chances. The energy will go straight over the mountains which will also tend to dry it out. That being said, clippers can do a little better than you would think and it would not completely surprise me to see a period of light snow and that could dust quite a few places. LIGHT DUST that is!

It started off VERY cold today! I hit the teens for the first time this season at my house!

Tomorrow, as the system creates a coastal low off of New England, winds will kick up and a very blustery day will be on tap! Highs in the teens to mid 30s for most with strong winds will make it miserable!

Monday will see a calmer day as the High Pressure system slides through and starts to move out.

With some dryness in the air and a storm approaching, it would not surprise me to see some sleet, possibly snow in the northern area, as precipitation starts Tuesday morning, but the precip will be a cold rain.

My thoughts that it could go milder, have been replaced by the the thought that it may not be as cold, but still pretty chilly! This MAY lead to an interesting set up next weekend but things still do not paint the best picture

POSSIBLE SNOW CHANCES FOR NEXT 7 DAYS

well, we have a little clipper coming through sat night, then we have the over running apps runner coming through on teusday-wed( ALTHOUGH THATS MORE OF A RAIN EVENT), ... then we have a possible more important systen for 12th-14th time frame.. many days left for that one, im sure models will meander back and forth. the latest 00z euro, cmc, , and gfs al point to a coastal low( although gfs is more out to sea than cmc and euro, but this far out the gfs is not very reliable anyway more to come, jimmy and i will keep a close eye on this one, remember like i always say... still 6-7 days aout, alot can and probably will change.

luke

Wintery Weather on the way. How long will we stay cold? What are the real snow chances?

Today an Arctic cold front is coming through and will drop temps through Monday. Highs will be 20s and 30s for the most part the next several days. Sunday we will be cold and windy too!

 

We should see some rain showers today. These change to snow in the Higher terrain in western areas.

 

Cold conditions tomorrow and Saturday with highs struggling to the 30s, some low to mid 40s in the south.

 

Saturday will have an increase in clouds and snow showers or even a period of light snow is possible Saturday night. This may whiten the ground in many areas that have not see any accumulating snows this year. Mountains will see the most accumulations. There is a chance that the system will start to energize on the coast and cause a more sustained snow in eastern areas, especially NE Maryland and Delaware.

 

Cold and windy conditions Sunday and Less windy but still cold Monday.

 

Another storm system approaches Tuesday and timing seems to have more to do with whether we see a mix or just rain at the onset. Despite this, at this time, all signs point to more liquid than frozen precipitation.

 

With the pattern changing a bit a milder pattern is looking more likely later next week into next weekend. Some opposition on this by some models, but it appears this is pretty likely.

 

All from Jimmy now!

 

 

wintry precip possibilitys..

well we have a possible clipper coming through this saturday-sunday, could be some light snow, then we have a stronger system, for the 10th-11th,the later system on the 10th-11th is still too far away to pinpoint at this time, models are still all over the place. the clipper could put down anywhere from a trace to maybe an inch or 2, but remember like i always say.. still many days till events, so alot can and probably will change with the models, but this is how it looks at this time.

luke

GFS

well the 00z run puts the storm on the 9th-11th off the coast and really bloew it up, so remember ,we still have alot of time, and many many runs of gfs and euro and cmc, and so on... left, so im sure some will change, but, as of now.... its looking better for snow lovers... at this time anyway, stay tuned

model spreads

hey all, jimmys right, i do get a little excited when it comes to storms lol, but the truth is.. it is still a good week away, and there is a big model spread with the track, some models want to take this storm farther inland, and a few models want to bring it up the coast, then you got some models wanting to bring warm air up, and some models wanting to keep it cold enough for snow... and lately no 2 runs are the same, very hard to pinpoint anything until probably few more days.. but i cant help getting excited.. winters here ... gotta luv it ... more to come :)

Luke

First we will see a BIG chill down as an Arctic front moves through. Highs this weekend will be widespread 20s and 30s!

SNOW? I am not sure. Luke and I are looking at models. He is getting excited, and I see the potential. But we have some limiting factors. The biggest is the negative NAO! that being said, there could be enough cold air at the start of the event for snow, if we get a storm. But what will happen? A Miller B, a Miller A? I m not confident now but see some things to look at!

All for Jimmy now! More to come!

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM 9TH-11TH

were still watching the " potential" of a winter storm on the 9th-11th time frame, models are not agreeing with each other. so we need to wait and see.. as we get closer im sure models will come more in line with a solution. wwhether good or bad

luke

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM on 9th-11th????

hey all,

well there is a real possibility that a storm could be brewing for the 9th-11th time frame, GFS has been a bit eratic as we all know it usually is.. but the latest 12z EURO has a nice storm just off carolina coast, it looks great, but remember still 8 days away so im sure it will go back and forth on the models.... stay tuned either way it certainly bears watching.

Luke

some sleet last night, then rain still watching dec 9th-10th

hey all, i got some sleet last night with the onset of the precip, but it didnt take long for temps to rise and it turn to rain, looks like about .5 to 1.00 inches of rain today. dec 9th-10th still looking like a possible winter storm for mid atlantic.. but remember it still 9 days away, so im sure models will flip flop.

thats all for now, GO RAVENS!!!

luke

winter forecast

hey all this is luke,

i took a look at the latest ACFS forecast, and let me tell you, its gonna be a cold snowy winter ill post a link here so you all can see the forecast for dec, jan and feb,. im thinking could finally see some accumulating snows here in the mid atlantic by the 6th , and then mqybe by the 9th. but either way temps will still be below normal here is the link...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/usT2mMon.gif

Some sleet likely tonight for many, but a cold rain on the way!

Many will see some sleet at the start of tonight's precipitation, but a quick turnover to rain most everywhere as warmer air will be in place above teh surface and make this a cold rain. Immediate deeper valleys of the Piedmont north of Charlottesville and in Western Maryland could see some sleet and even some freezing rain. The warmth will squash my first thoughts of snow west of teh mountains as well, though wrap around snow is possible for the western facing Mountains Monday into Tuesday.

Colder air will settle into the region for a few days and then some warming Thursday to the 50s and even a few 60s! We will have colder air again by next weekend as temps remain in the 40s and low 50s at most for highs. The colder air could lead to another wintry threat later next weekend.

So we have a very cold rain for most areas with some colder pockets causing sleet. Then a cold and breezy aftermath Monday into Tuesday. A slight warming Wednesday into Thursday with some colder air again by next weekend.

Jimmy

Frozen Mix on the way! Cold rain the outcome!

There will be some interesting weather Starting tomorrow night and continuing into Sunday! It looks like now we will see some sleet and even freezing rain west of I-95 as a southern storm heads towards the area. Warmer air will come in quickly, and many may see some flakes for a little bit, and then a quick changeover. I could see sleet being at the start of most areas of the middle part of Virginia with a quick turnover to rain, but, the temps will drop to freezing or below west of the I-95 corridor. Areas further north in Western Maryland, east of the moutains, could see some accumulations. West of the mountains, could see a 6"+ snow!

Although the exact scenario is hard to tell. The valleys North of Charlottesville and along teh spine of the Appalachians of Virginia up into Maryland COULD see enough ice to meet minimum Warning criteria. Most likely areas North of Charlottesville up to Maryland and about 35 miles west if I-p5 will see winter weather advisory criteria!

Quick map likely soon!

All for now!

Cold air to be a little less the next few days! Could see some snow Sunday!

Happy Thanksgiving!

We will see somewhat warmer conditions today and tomorrow as temperatures rebound to the 50s and maybe some 60s in the South.

Temperatures will come down some tomorrow. This COULD set conditions for a somewhat wintry event for Sunday as Snow and Rain could overspread the Immediate Piedmont and Northern regions. The precip will turn to rain for most the area but areas along and west of the mountains. This could be quite the rain event as it turns into a true Nor'easter. The issue with this not being snow is the lack of cold air being locked in the area. So as the storm pulls warmer air in off the ocean it will change things over for anyone seeing snow or a mix. All that being said, we still should watch this storm as things could evolve differently and that COULD mean more snow for some.

After this we stay below normal next week. As of now, the brutal cold air does not look to unlock yet, but it could by late week.
All for now!

Colder than normal temps are sticking around! Still see Brutal Cold possible first week of December!

More snow showers and even a period of light snow fell yesterday in Southeastern Virginia! The low that was forming has gone up to New England and Canada and will be the cause for winds today and a continued cold day with highs not out of the 30s for most and low to mid 40 for the southern areas. Another chilly day tomorrow and then a front comes through Moonday into Tuesday Morning. rain showers will be the precip types as warmer air is pulled up in front of the system. A changeover to some snow and rain showers mixed is possible Later Monday Night into Tuesday morning, and all snow by that time in the mountains where they will again see accumulating snows on Tuesday, but not like we had. I had believed next week we could warm up some, but a large upper level low over northern New England will kee the cold air flowing in to the region. Thanksgiving looks quite chilly with highs generally in the 40s.

Next weekend is showing the first sign of a more organized chance of wintry weather. It also may be the point where we see a flip from cold to frigid for teh following week!

All for now!

Jimmy

Cold to continue. Long term looks brutal

Not a lot of time to write. I see cold air sticking around through next week, with a reprieve for next weekend. A chance at some snow showers the next 24 hours, especially overnight and early tomorrow as we get a reinforced cold shot of air from a clipper like system. Mountains will see another blast of snow, but not as much as last time. Temps will struggle to make it out of 20s in mountains and 30s east. 40s will be for the southern area. Next week we stay on the colder side of things with highs pretty much remaining the 40s. Some rain and snow showers Monday into Tuesday, with mountains seeing some more accumulations. It looks like we could see some milder air next weekend and then a return of real cold, with RECORD COLD not out of the question based on latest model trends!

All for now!

Many could see first flakes of the season next 24 hours

A disturbance and cold front will cross the area the next 24 hours and bring even colder air into the region tomorrow!

For today, the cold air aloft will cause clouds to increase as the day goes as the sun will cause some convective precip to form. Mountain areas should see rain/snow mix, higher elevations, just snow. Showers elsewhere. As the energy from the front approached there could be just enough moisture to allow snow showers for most areas tonight. This would be more up north. The reinforcing shot of cold air will bring plenty of wind as a system develops off the coast. Areas along the eastern shore up through Delaware, YOU MAY see a period of light snow tomorrow morning! That low and the building cold high to the west will bring winds in the 20 and 30 mph range with higher gusts to the Piedmont and coast, and even higher winds to the higher elevations. Westward facing slopes will see an increase in snow! The ski resorts are happy!

Temps will remain in the 30s to as much as upper 40s in the south tomorrow, but it will be the coldest day we have had this season thus far!

The rest of the week looks cold too. Wednesday's highs will almost match tomorrow, but have less wind. Highs will rebound to upper 40s and low to mid 50s south Thursday, but cold air again will be reinforced for Friday and in to the weekend!

How we looking longer term? First, I do not want to fail to mention a Model showing a potential Snowstorm possible for New England that we could see a little touch from. That would be later this week, and, as of now looks improbable. About 8 days from now we "COULD" see a real shot at a storm system along the east coast which "COULD" spell some accumulating snows for the region. After that, models show some changes and a milder pattern for several days. This is way far out and I just am not sure at this time.

All for now!

Windy! West facing Mountains to get some snows. maybe a flurry east. COLD week!

Quite a powerful front yesterday. We had a Tornado watch out and, although many were spared, North Carolina had an EF-3 tornado that killed at least 2 people! SPC was right in issuing the Tornado watch as the dynamics were there!

Now the first front has passed and many who say 70+ will only see the 50s and 40s today! Another front will pass through tomorrow and drop most places into the 40's the rest of the week! yes! 40s! There could be some snow showers Monday Night east of the mountains, but western facing slopes will have enough snow for winter storm warning and advisories! being a snow lover, just makes me want to go see it!

As the week progresses temps will fluctuate from lower to higher 40s north, upper 40s to mid 50s south. In the Mountains temps will never really rise to 40 or above. A system will come through Monday night and could cause some flurries east of the mountains, but it does not look widespread. another such episode could occur Thursday evening. Overall, east of the mountains, it should be dry!

It will be windy today and tomorrow and likely Friday.

What does it look like Thanksgiving week? Likely, a cool week. It looks like we could have a break and then maybe more colder air, and possibly stormier, to start off December!

All for now!

Severe weather possible this afternoon!

With a strong cold front, warm weather and strong dynamics there is a possibility of severe storms this afternoon. High winds and heavy rains are the likely scenario with the chance of isolated tornadoes! This will be especially true east of I-95!

Colder air is on the way as well! More on that later!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Good rains to break for 24 hours! Then rain and thunder. Then colder! Snow flurries possuble Monday morning north!

Good amount of rain has come through. Another round is on the way with a front tommorrw night into Saturday. Warm conditions and a strong front will mean a few storms could be severe! Colder Sunday. A cold front may have enough moisture and cold air to bring snow showers to the areas north of fredericksburg!
Cold and windy the rest of the day Monday! Cold temps (mainly 40s and even 30s)through Thursday!

Again, there are hints at some precipitation late next week.

All for now!
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Wet, warm, then cold!

The storm system coming through over the next several days will bring quite a lot of wet weather. The first wave will come through in the next 24 hours. Showers will be possible friday and more rain friday night into saturday. Temps will warm friday into the 60s for most. Saturday near 60 north.

 We then begin sunny days but a steady decline in temoeratures. Next wednesday many could see highs only in the 30s.

The cold looks to hold for at least several days at this point. It looks dry, but there could be a shot at light precip next week. Some models hint at more than that, but it is just way too far out to tell.

All for now.
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Better chance of rain as a coastal bring rains. Increasing signs of cold!

Looks like the area will continue a bit below average with a good chance of rain Thursday into Saturday. Warmer temps will be pumped up as a primary low up in Canada spawns a coastal storm.

After the storm finally clears this coming weekend, a very significant storm looks to form next week. I see a good chance of a real soaking rain and then the first Arctic outbreak of the season could come!

All for now!

Just a heads up on possible cold outbreak next week!

Some data is now coming in to line that shows next week could REALLY turn colder. I had hinted at this in previous posts, but just seeing more signs!

50s pretty much the rule this week. Rain chances Thursday and Friday

Just a few degrees below average temperatures expected most of the week. Closer to 60 in the south. It will be coolest (Lower 50s north) on Tuesday. Rain chances will increase Thursday into Friday. It does not appear that the temperatures will cool down after this system moves through. Another larger storm may develop next week and drop the temperatures.
 
Not much more to Add. Hurricane Paloma has weakened to a tropical storm. No other tropical activity at this time.

All for now

Paloma Strengthens more!

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL THEN STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Snow amounts in South Dakota

THIS TABLE LISTS THE REPORTS BY SNOW AMOUNT...AND MAY NOT
NECESSARILY BE THE FINAL STORM TOTALS.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

 INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
 ------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
  45.70   2 NE DEADWOOD            SD  LAWRENCE         0345 PM
                 STORM TOTAL. 35 INCHES ON THE GROUND. 4.25
                 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
 43.60   2 NE DEADWOOD            SD  LAWRENCE         1030 AM
                  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4.04 INCHES.
 24.00   7 E REDIG                SD  HARDING          0111 PM
                 VISIBILITY HAS BEEN 60-100 YDS SINCE 600 PM
                 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
  24.00   8 S DEADWOOD             SD  LAWRENCE         0930 AM
                 DRIFTS 5 FEET DEEP.
 20.00   3 SE DEERFIELD           SD  PENNINGTON       0933 AM
 19.00   8 W DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH   SD  LAWRENCE         0935 AM
                  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 1.85 INCHES. VISIBILITY
                 BELOW 1/4 MILE.
 18.00   RED OWL                  SD  MEADE            0200 PM
                 6 TO 7 FOOT DRIFTS. VISIBILITY 100 FEET.
  16.00   DOWNTOWN STURGIS         SD  MEADE            0955 AM
                 DRIFTS UP TO 6 FEET DEEP. VISIBILITY LESS
                 THAN 1/4 MILE.
 13.00   DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH       SD  LAWRENCE         0933 AM
                  VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
 12.50   DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH       SD  LAWRENCE         0750 AM
                 DRIFTS 6 FEET HIGH. 35-40 MPH WINDS.
                 VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
  12.00   9 W JEWEL CAVE           SD  CUSTER           0245 PM
                 12+ INCHES OF SNOW WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN
                 100 FEET. 71.9 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED
                 OVERNIGHT.
 12.00   8 WNW USTA               SD  PERKINS          1230 PM
                  VISIBILITY WAS BELOW 1/4 THIS MORNING. NOW AT
                 1/2 MILE.
 12.00   NEWELL                   SD  BUTTE            0959 AM
                 VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
 12.00   23 NE NEWELL             SD  BUTTE            0954 AM
                  DRIFTS 5 TO 6 FEET. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
                 MILE.
 10.00   4 SE FOLSOM              SD  CUSTER           0230 PM
                 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
                  BETWEEN ZERO AND 1/8 MILE ALL DAY.
 10.00   6 W WANBLEE              SD  JACKSON          0222 PM
                 VISIBILITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNDER 1/4 MILE
                 SINCE THIS MORNING.
  10.00   13 W LODGEPOLE           SD  PERKINS          1000 AM
                 VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
 10.00   1 E RALPH                SD  HARDING          0939 AM
                 DRIFTS 8 TO 10 FEET HIGH. VISIBILITY LESS
                  THAN 1/4 MILE.
 10.00   13 WSW LEMMON            SD  PERKINS          0800 AM
                 COCORAHS
  8.00   15 NNW ALVA              WY  CROOK            0212 PM
  8.00   2 SE COLONY              WY  CROOK            0205 PM
                  VISIBILITY IS NOW AT 1 MILE. VISIBILITY
                 DIPPED BELOW 1/4 MILE AROUND 500 PM
                 WEDNESDAY...AND WAS STILL AT 1/4 MILE AT 800
                 AM THIS MORNING.
  8.00   9 N BOX ELDER            SD  MEADE            1200 PM
                  ESTIMATED BETWEEN 6 TO 10 INCHES. ZERO
                 VISIBILITY.
  8.00   5 ESE DOWNTOWN RAPID CI  SD  PENNINGTON       0830 AM
  7.00   19 SSE REVA              SD  PERKINS          0945 AM
                  DRIFTS 6 TO 7 FEET. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
                 MILE.
  7.00   OPAL                     SD  MEADE            0916 AM
                 DRIFTS 3 FEET HIGH. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
                  MILE.
  3.00   3 SSE MOORCROFT          WY  CROOK            0925 AM
  1.50   7 SE ROZET               WY  CAMPBELL         1045 AM
                 SNOW HAS STOPPED AND VISIBILITY IS GOOD.

 $$

Totals in North Dakota Blizzard

000
NWUS53 KFGF 071954
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
154 PM CST FRI NOV 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
 ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       ESMOND                  48.03N 99.76W
11/07/2008  E12.0 INCH       BENSON             ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       8 S KNOX                48.23N 99.69W
11/07/2008  E12.0 INCH       BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       MADDOCK                 47.96N 99.53W
 11/07/2008  E6.0 INCH        BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       4 E LEEDS               48.29N 99.35W
11/07/2008  E6.0 INCH        BENSON             ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       3 N MUNICH              48.71N 98.83W
11/07/2008  E8.0 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       LANGDON                 48.76N 98.37W
 11/07/2008  M8.0 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       2 S DEVILS LAKE         48.08N 98.87W
11/07/2008  M2.0 INCH        RAMSEY             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER
 
            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       CANDO                   48.49N 99.20W
11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        TOWNER             ND   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET. POWER OUTAGES
             IN THE EGELAND AND ROCKLAKE AREAS.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       HANSBORO                48.95N 99.38W
11/07/2008  M4.0 INCH        TOWNER             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
             RAIN.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WALHALLA                48.92N 97.92W
11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        PEMBINA            ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     SNOW             CAVALIER                48.80N 97.62W
 11/07/2008  M1.0 INCH        PEMBINA            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     SNOW             2 S LEROY               48.89N 97.75W
11/07/2008  E2.0 INCH        PEMBINA            ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     SLEET            PEKIN                   47.79N 98.33W
11/07/2008  E0.25 INCH       NELSON             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE QUARTER INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION
 
0118 PM     SNOW             LAKOTA                  48.04N 98.35W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        NELSON             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       DEVILS LAKE             48.11N 98.87W
 11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        RAMSEY             ND   PUBLIC

0118 PM     SNOW             LANKIN                  48.31N 97.92W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        WALSH              ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.
 
0118 PM     SNOW             4 N PARK RIVER          48.45N 97.74W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        WALSH              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       MINNEWAUKAN             48.07N 99.25W
 11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       5 NE SARLES             49.00N 98.92W
11/07/2008  E6.0 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   CO-OP OBSERVER
 
0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       STARKWEATHER            48.45N 98.88W
11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        RAMSEY             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       NEW ROCKFORD            47.68N 99.14W
 11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        EDDY               ND   PUBLIC

0118 PM     SNOW             2 W SUTTON              47.40N 98.48W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.
 
0118 PM     SNOW             WIMBLEDON               47.17N 98.46W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET

0118 PM     SNOW             CHURCHS FERRY           48.27N 99.19W
 11/07/2008  E3.0 INCH        RAMSEY             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET

0118 PM     SNOW             7 N GRAFTON             48.52N 97.40W
11/07/2008  E2.0 INCH        WALSH              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER
 
            STORM TOTAL.

0118 PM     SLEET            5 N NIAGARA             48.07N 97.87W
11/07/2008  E0.25 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

            TRACE OF SNOW.

0118 PM     SNOW             PEMBINA                 48.97N 97.25W
 11/07/2008  M1.0 INCH        PEMBINA            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       NEKOMA                  48.58N 98.38W
11/07/2008  E4.0 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE. ICE COVERING
            TREES WITH BRANCHES DOWN.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       BISBEE                  48.63N 99.38W
11/07/2008  E12.0 INCH       TOWNER             ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     SNOW             HAVANA                  45.95N 97.62W
11/07/2008  E0.0 INCH        SARGENT            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TRACE OF SNOW

0118 PM     SNOW             VALLEY CITY             46.92N 98.01W
 11/07/2008  M0.0 INCH        BARNES             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TRACE OF SNOW

HURR PALOMA Public Advisory 13

Latest on Paloma

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS PALOMA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
TAKES AIM AT CUBA...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND HOLGUIN AND
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM
...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER LANDFALL.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM CAYMAN BRAC THIS
MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 17 TO 23 FEET...ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER LITTLE CAYMAN...CAYMAN BRAC...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
GRAND CAYMAN.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM EST POSITION...19.9 N...79.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I am back. And working on doing this daily again! Cooler air on the way- Rain - and then maybe really colder!

First: I am back. I want to make this a part of my life for me! I need something to break teh monotony of the day to day and I like Weather.

Second: The Forecast:
The front that extended from the Low that dumped the serious snow in ND and SD is swinging through. Showers have ended for areas west of the immediate coastal areas. It is headed through now.

The system will usher in some cooler air for the first part of the week! Then the models are all over the place. It looks like late in the week could become wuite wet with a low headed up the Appalachians. That could also bring much colder air down for the following week. So cool 40's and 50's through Wednesday.. some warming and then maybe some big rains. The next 24 hours should see clearing occur and temps pretty much in the 50s and night time getting back inti the 30 to 40 degree range, around 50 Southeast.

Longer Term: The colder air that may get unleashed next weekend may be REALLY cold. It bears some watching.

Tropics sould be done, but Paloma is turning at 140 mph winds! Amazing storm!

All for now!

Getting back on track after Hanna Flooding! More heavy rains possible later this week!

I have been really busy as usual. At the height of Tropical action I was in Florida. Of course, Hanna hit and caused flooding in my house which sat for 6 days until we got home. In less that 24 hours I had to turn around and head to Phoenix AZ and came back and now I am watching the water in the forecast and see a potential BIG event later this week! We do not need more water, but I do need to know if the things we did to avoid the water will work. We lost some stuff, but it could have been a lot worse!

Time to get back into the forecasts! -Tropical Madness

What an active time we have in the tropics. My hope is that Gustav wil not gain any strength again! He came down from a peak of 150 mph when he crossed Cuba. That being said, he is still very powerful system and he is going to come in west of New Orleans. He will still be powerful and my hope is that teh surge is not going too bad. My gut says, no matter what, New Orleans will be in bad shape!

I will start being more vigilent in my forum http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1499.0

Now, Hanna! TS Hanna is starting to show a threat to the east coast! This could be a threat later next week. You can find more on Hanna here: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1500.0

That being said, the Eastern part of teh US is about to experience a heat wave whic will include 90s again for our region. That ridge is the same one that is pushing Gustav to move teh way he is. So look for a return to summer like conditions especially starting Tuesday. Today and tommorrow look nice!

Of note, the tropics look like they have 2 more disturbnces that could become storms in the next few days.

All for now!

Severe Storms likely today

A disturbance will move through the region today and cause storms which could be severe. Very heavy rains, hail, and high winds, and hail are the biggest threats. There could be some isolated tornadoes, especially in the east. Stay tuned to weather outlets for watches or warnings! All for now Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Nice day on tap- Storms possible tomorrow

Beautiful weather will be on tap today! Highs in the low mid 80s and low humidity.

Tomorrow will see a potential storm complex that could cause training of storms and flooding rains for northern areas and isolated severe storms.

All for now!

Severe weather possible this afternoon and evening

Severe weather is a strong possibility later this afternoon and evening. Hail and damaging winds are the biggest threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. The good news is that this is the beginning of a weather shift and very nice conditions are becoming more likely for this weekend! Stay tuned to your weather outlets for watches and/or warnings. All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Severe is possible today

Several showers and storms shoud erupt this afternoon throughout teh area and some may bcome severe. Today's threat would be high winds and hail.   Please stay to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings.   All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Heavy rains and severe weather

Ongoing scattered thunderstorms with locally intense rains will become more widespread today. The atmosphere is extremely saturated and storms have the capability of dropping several inches of rain in some locations which would cause flash flooding. On top of this, the atmosphere is unstable enough that damaging winds and hail in some storms is very likely! Please stay alert today! Stay tuned to weather outlets and NEVER drive through water that you see crossing over a street! This will be a very busy weather day! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Fairly high chance of severe weather

Severe storms could affect the area by early afternoon. Heavy rains and high winds appear likely. Please stay tuned to weather outlets for updates and potential watches and/or warnings. All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Some severe storms likely today with heavy rains

A cold front will push through the region the next 24 hours and likely bring heavy rains and thunderstorms which could be severe.Please  stay tuned to weather outlets for Watches and/or warnings this afternoon. All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Not the best July 4th forecast!

With increasing clouds and humidity, a front and a disturbance will link up later this afternoon and cause rain, some of which could be heavy, for the next 24 - 36 hours. There could be some localized flooding and some storms could be severe late today and tomorrow. Rain will be locally heavy where some storms train along the same areas!

Storminess will be more widespread this evening into the night and tomorrow.

Storms will continue to be possible through Tuesday and then finally a clearing front on Wednesday.

The Atlantic tropics gave birth to Bertha yesterday. She has strengthened, but will likely not pose a threat to land. It is possible she could reach minimal Hurricane, but right now she is expected to stay just below that strength. The Sea Surface temps are not the best for her to strengthen.

See the latest here:
http://www.midatlanticweather.com/tropical/tropics.htm

All for now!

Low humidity, but teh temps are climbing. July 4th has a better shot at rain!

Temps definitely will be warmer today as they climb to the 90 degree mark for most. Humidity really returns tomorrow and the 4th now has a pretty decent chance of showers and storms.

Tropics are starting to look interesting with a potential depression forming!

More to come!

Beautiful day on tap with low humidity and pleasant temps

You do not get too many like this in the midst of summer! Enjoy the upper 70s to lower 80s with plenty of sun. Temps go to the mid 80s tomorrow and towards the upper 80s later in the week. Friday through Sunday look seasonably warm and humid with a chance of storms each day!

 

All for now!

Bit humid today with scattered storms possible - nice tomorrow. Turning Seasonal by July 4th!

A disturbance will move through today and could cause some showers and thunderstorms. It is possible that the storms could be briefly severe with high winds or hail. Tomorrow the weather cools dramatically with highs in the 70s and low to mid 80s at best! Temps will begin an upward movement, to seasonal 85 - 90 by this weekend when afternoon and evening storms will again be possible. For now, Tuesday though Thursday look dry with temps pretty much in the mid 80s after tomorrow.

All for now!

Still a bit humid tody with isolated storms - Very nice tomorrow!

A disturbance will move through today and could cause some showers and thunderstorms. It is possible that the storms could be briefly severe with high winds or hail. Tomorrow the weather cools dramatically with highs in the 70s and low to mid 80s at best! Temps will begin an upward movement, to seasonal 85 - 90 by this weekend when afternoon and evening storms will again be possible. For now, Tuesday though Thursday look dry with temps pretty much in the mid 80s after tomorrow.

All for now!

Severe likely today with numerous showers and storms

Storms will develop and persist through the afternoon. The atmosphere will be very unstable so severe weather will be likely to develop. The biggest risk will be high winds. Hail and isolated tornadoes could also occur.

Stay tuned to news and radio outlets for watches or warnings.

All for now!

Hot and Humid with Afternoon Storms. Hot weekend with storm threat increasing through Sunday

Today we have a better chance of convection to fire due to some better triggers in the atmosphere. Enough instability exists for some storms to become severe with the best threat being rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s (Cooler in the mountains).

As a Frontal system approaches and slowly moves through the area Sunday and exits slowly Monday, showers and storms become more likely and the threat of Sever on both days does exist.

Temperatures and humidity will come way down on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Temps slowly warm as we head towards the 4th of July.

All for now!

Definitely warmer and starting to be more humid today. Isolated storms tomorrow could have some severe elements

We will see the first steps of a hotter and more humid pattern that will last through the weekend today. Temps will reach upper 80s and low 90s, and as the day progresses the humidity levels will start to increase as well. Tomorrow, a slight chance of storms develops and lasts into the evening. The northern areas of Virginia and Maryland could see isolated storms and some could become severe. This will need to be watched. Temps should be 90 or above state wide tomorrow and reach the low to mid 90s Friday. More storms are possible Friday and now both Saturday and Sunday should have a decent shot at showers and thunderstorms in a humid air mass.

Next week looks like a cool down again to below seasonal levels.

All for now.

Tranquil and slowly warming weather the next few days. Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.

Numerous storms did affect thearea last evening and some had hail and wind. That storm has headed east and we are headed for a few days of calm, though a definite warming trend after today. Highs today will be just slightly below normal and humidity levels will be very comfortable. Tomorrow, warmer and more humid conditions will arrive and that should continue and become even more humid Thursday. Friday, we should see a chance of storms and that chance will continue Saturday and increase in numbers Sunday.

 

The Tropical Atlantic remains tranquil for now.

 

All for now.

 

Afternoon storms with scattered Severe!

The atmosphere is very unstable so afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely today. Some will be severe and will likely produce damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Stay tuned to weather outlets for watches and/or warnings this afternoon.

We will see more tranquil weather the next few days and then summer heat and humidity will return Thursday!

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Severe weather very possible today!

An approaching frontal system will increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms could become severe and the threat exists for hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes. Please stay tuned to local weather outlets for watches and warnings.

Severe weather could also be an issue for part of the day tomorrow. More to come on this.

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Storm potentia increases this afternoon and overnight. Seveer threat Sunday and Monday.

A more humid airmass is now in place and warmer temperatures. This will combine with a trough east of the mountains today and an approaching front tomorrow and produce showers and storms. Isolated storms could be severe today, and definitely a chance tomorrow and Monday.

Temperatures will be in the mid an upper 80s the next few days.

All for now!

Jimmy

Nice weather, but daily thunder chances

Temps will stay nice, and start to warm into the weekend. Highs mid 70s to low 80s today, warming to 80 to 85 this weekend. A daily risk of afternoon showers and storms with the best threat now being saturday.
--------------------------
Sent from my BlackBerry Wireless Device

Nice weather to continue but there is a wrinkle

It will continue unseasonally nice today, but, a small disturbance could kick off isolated storms, some could contain hail and high wind. These should be isolated, so most should be good! Tommorow could be very similar!
Temps look to be the coolest today with mid and upper 70s! After this temps will be 80 to 85 for the most part!
Sunday looks like the next chance of more organized showers and storms.
All for now.
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Storms today. Some Severe possible. Nice Sunday.. Storms Monday and almost cool next week!

Today will be hot and sticky. Scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Heavy winds will be the most likely issue. Tomorrow will be less humid and warm. Monday will also present a chance of showers and storms, some of which could be severe as well.

Then we really see a cool air mass with highs mainly in the 70s.

More later.

Definitely hotter today and tomorrow. Severe Storms are possible tomorrow - Next week looks beautiful!

The forecast will turn hot and sticky today and tomorrow with temps cracking the 90 degree mark and humidity on the increase. There is a chance that tomorrow, when thunderstorms are expected, that some could be strong or severe. Sunday looks very nice with highs in the mid to upper 80s with less humidity. Another front passes through Monday with another chance of some showers and storms and then weather looks to dry out and cool to 70s to low 80s at best through Thursday!

All for now!

Weather continues nice. A stretch of cooler, but rain may make it not that great!

I was excited yesterday to see an extended forecast that would have nicer weather. Unfortunately, Monday through Wednesday of next week, though cooler, may also be plagued by showers and thunderstorm chances every day! Temperatures in the 70s seems more likely Tuesday into Wednesday but the chance of showers and storms will also be there.

For now, today looks like a copy of yesterday with less breezes. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer, and some humidity will creep back into the area. Saturday afternoon could have thunderstorms and then Sunday looks nice. the best chances for Shower and storms early next week is Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday could end up dry, but too early to tell!

Temps will be near or in the low 90s tomorrow, 80s Saturday, mid 80s Sunday and Monday, and 75 to 83 most places Tuesday and Wednesday next week!

All for now!

Much nicer weather!

Many powerful storms knocked out power and caused tons of lightning last night. Much nicer stretch of weather now! Highs will be mid 80s today and tomorrow. Bit warmer Friday. Rain possibilities are there for Saturday and a much cooler air mass for Sunday through early next week with highs by Tuesday in the 70s to low 80s at most!

All for now!

Jimmy

HOT weather will give way to strong storms

The very hot weather we have been experiencing will last one day more, but give way to showers and storms later today. These storms could contain strong winds, hail, and even isolated tornadoes towards the Chesapeake bay region. Please stay tuned to local news and weather outlets and try and stay cool for one more day.

All for now!

Jimmy

 

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Severe weather with Tornadoes!

Severe thunderstorms are likely or occurring for many locations! The atmosphere is primed for some severe weather including tornadic activity. Warnings have been issued in many locations in Southwestern Virginia! This is serious and you need to stay informed of the weather this evening!

Very heavy rains are also very likely! Please be careful and stay tuned to your news and weather outlets!

 

Jimmy

 

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Severe weather and then SNOW?

A strong cold front will approach teh are today and produce some strong to possibly severe storms. The biggest threat will be strong winds, but some risk is there for isolated tornadoes. Please stay tuned too radio and news outlets today.

The SNOW potential is real for late in the Weekend and early next week. So much time to evaluate, but a real threat nonetheless an it could be significant.

All for now!

 

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SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY AND HEAVY RAINS

SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY AND HEAVY RAINS

If you have been listening to the news and weather you will know many areas are under a tornado watch. I thought I should post and say that this is a higher risk than normal for more serious tornadoes. If there are any they are likely to be isolated, some may be strong. This is not a night to disregard this potential. Severe storms are also firing and producing winds in excess of 70 mph! This is a serious situation and I would ask that you pay attention to your news and radio outlets into the night!

In addition, very heavy rainfall could result in flooding. Remember, water is powerful and can sweep even larger vehicles off the road.

 

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Looks like rain and maybe some snow for Southwestern parts of the area! Sunny day now gonna turn cloudy!

Today was supposed to be all sunny, but a disturbance is headed into the southern parts of the region and will likely bring a cloudy afternoon and maybe some rain to the south. I could see it eeking out some snow showers in the higher terrain as the upper levels are cold enough.
 In northern areas that stay sunny, the temps will jump to the mid and upper 40s, in the south, with clouds, 40s will also be the rule!

Tomorrow looks quite mild with highs in the 50s and maybe approaching 60 in the south.

Freezing rain will be possible in valley locations tomorrow night. Rain is the most likely outcome through much of Tuesday with  very windy afternoon and colder temperatures through th rest of the week. As of now, I am not seeing another system on the horizon. It is possible that could change for next weekend.

All for now!
 

Storm over!

This ended up as I had thought yesterday when I posted about there not
being much moisture.

Things will improve after a dreary start saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or below normal through next week. Rain looks likely monday
night through tuesday. The next chance of precip after that could come
next weekend.

All for now.

Winter weather thoughts this mornind

Winter storm watch remains. Feel more areas may be under advisory
criteria (>4" snow or >.25" of ice) than thought. True winter storm
criterea for ice would be southwestern VA and some MD areas near the
PA border. Smaller amounts of precip elsewhere will lead to a lower
accumulation.

Still early so keep checking for updates.

Winter Storm Watches are up. Messy Mix for Friday into Saturday!

The national weather service has come out with Watches and this looks like a long term icing event starting as snow most areas tomorrow night. The surface cold will mean that the warming taking place aloft will not make it to the surface so Ice will become a dominant type. this will be especially true west of I-95, but MOST areas could see an ice storm before warming.

There are still details to be concerned about. Some models show less precipitation than others. If the less precip pans out, advisory criteria (icing less than .25"would more the likely outcome)

Now, I am thinking that the combination of Ice and Snow will be enough for the storm and we will all need to watch this.

Break down:
I-95 and east - Advisory criteria
I-95 and West - Winter Storm

Snow 1-4" (more western slopes and near PA border)
Ice will be an issue through most of Saturday.

All for now.

Winter returns

Winter has come back and we could see multiple chances for wintry
weather and snow through the end of the month and into next.

As of now, today should feature a period of snow which will dust many
areas north of fredericksburg and up into maryland. Areas further
north will see 1 to 2 inches with isolated. Inch spots. Add 2 to 3
inches to that for the mountains.

Thursday night and all day friday look bad! Ice storm criteria should
be met in the piedmont areas with icing looking bad. Snow may be a
factor for northern areas for the first couple of hours but ice is the
bigger threat.

The weekend looks tranquil and then more potential winter weather tuesday.

All for now.

Light Snow tomorrow. Ice Storm Friday!

Light Snow will overspread the northern Half of Virginia and Maryland tomorrow. 1 to as much a 3 inches will fall, from Fredericksburg northward with the near 3" occurring in Maryland. 3-5" is expected in the higher, western facing, mountains.

Friday could be a very slippery day with widespread icing issues and maybe some accumulating snows. This could include most of the area, especially west of I-95. More northern areas could squeeze out enough snow at the onset to be  Winter Storm Warning Criteria for snow (>4") and then many areas could be under a storm warning for Ice!

Details still coming on the later week storm, but look for snow to overspread the area quickly tomorrow morning and last until evening.

 

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Some snow in the north tommorrow. More to come!

Light snow will visit northern va and md tommorrow. 1 to 3" amounts
could fall. More snow in MD than VA.

Friday looks like a snow to a mix scenario. This could still drop a
fair amount of snow Thursday night into Friday.

More to come.

Very warm day to give way to colder and potentially wintry weather!

Highs reached the 70's in many places, but will head to colder and
stormier times.

Clipper: so far I am unimpressed, but the NWS is concerned that models
could be underplaying the slystem. So, in northern VA and MD, there
could be some accumulating snow wednesday.

Thursdat through saturday: a variety of winter weather appears to be
coming. Snow and ice could be an issue for a lot of areas. This is
especially true for the piedmont and mountains. Northern VA and MD,
esecially west of i-95 may see the biggest snow of the season and then
ice on that! A lot of details are still to come!

All for now!

Warm today. Then seasonal. Winter weather later this week

Very warm this morning with fallind temperatures. This week is not
clear cut, but, I have a lot of information showing thursday through
at least saturday could have several rounds of frozen precipitation.
Stay tuned.

Weekend to end rainy. Snow/Ice threat increasing for Thursday - Friday

We are rather calm weather wise this weekend with highs slightly below normal today and slightly above tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, rain should overspread the area.
Scattered showers will likely turn to snow showers Monday and Monday night in the north and Mountains but that will be after a rather mild start in the 50s and even 60s. A pretty cold week will shape  up and it appears a storm may affect us with a variety of winter weather starting Thursday and lasting into Friday. This looks like a Snow to ice set up for amny Northen Virginia and Maryland areas.

All for now!

Ice issues remain this morning. Snow this afternoon

The ice continues most of the night and has been really a problem for the central piedmont. Be extremely careful especially on secondary streets and walking!

The snow threat this afternoon and evening looks less impressive than I may have thought, but bears watching as models do not get these scenarios correct often. I am not saying we will get more than foretasted, I am saying it is very hard to forecast.

Why was it so much colder? My only real thoughts on this was that the storm that is to the west was not as strong as foretasted which meant the southerly winds were not as strong as thought. These winds would have warmed the atmosphere and switched things to rain yesterday instead of this morning. Also, the secondary low that could  cause some snow this afternoon and evening coudl affect the scouring of the cold as well.

The week will remain fairly cold with the next threat of wintry weather Sunday night into Tuesday!

All for now!

Ice isses continue for Piedmont - snow tomorrow into tomorrow night!

The cold air will slowly erode, but it is going to take some time so ice will be an issue until morning! In the morning we may see some plain rain before temperatures bottom out a new coastal low forms. There is a chance for 1 - 4" of snow especially I-95 and eastward and especially north of I-95

This was a very strange set up and I missed it as many did! The situation tomorrow is an evolving one and may surprise us again!

I will update as soon as I can!

 

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Dicy roads and snow!

Be really careful when you leave! Very icy and a lot of traffic!

Rain will change to snow tomorrow and there will be some accumulations!

Ice Storm or not? West of I-95 Some Sleet and Freezing rain Likely Thursday night into Friday!

I would say that the models do not convince me that an ice storm will occur with too many areas Thursday night, but the valleys could very well get enough to warrant ice storm criteria. I would think areas west of I-95 will be but under a winter weather advisory tomorrow night and the mountain valley's could very well be under an ice storm warning. Part of teh reason will be high precipitation amounts and therefor if there is frozen precip it would be heavy for a while.

Next week is starting to look balmy! Could areas see the 70s?

All for now!

Some updates and thoughts on the weather! Seasonable but little snow chances!

First of all, I have just gotten over being sick so I am sorry I have been so absent. Work also remains busy! I see a lot of traffic from Accuweather forums! Welcome to Mid Atlantic Weather!

It has been very cold! I am happy that the heart of winter has felt like it! Unfortunately for snow lovers, the storm tracks have not favored snow for the region. Despite this I have had snow on the ground now since the 17th! Pretty impressive!

A Large storm will spin up off the east coast the next 24 hours as a southern system which brought frozen precipitation to the south will phase with a northern system that may brig some light snow and snow showers to the region overnight. That storm will miss most areas but **MAY** cause some snow for Massachusetts and cause a lot of ocean snow!

Another system will affect the area Tuesday and will likely mainly be rain, but some precip in the mountain valleys and north could cause some sleet or ice.

Another system next Thursday and Friday could also have some mix involved at onset but looks like a rain event.

Temperatures this week will turn much more seasonable with mainly 40s and low 50s after Sunday.

In general, it does not look like a wintry weather week, just too warm for snow.

SNOW ALERT! Snow amounts increasing due to radar coverage

Snowfall for the next system has been upped by the NWS. Many areas west of I-95 have been sent to a Winter Storm Warning. It appears that 4"+ of snow will fall in these regions. Higher amounts will occur near and in the mountains.

Snow is now likely to break out near daybreak in the DC metro area. Snow will fall and become heavy at times west of I-95.

Best I can tell from what i am seeing.

A line from Roanoke, to Harrison burg to Leesburg through middle of Frederick County Maryland will see the most snow.

yes.. I kind of fell asleep at the wheel on this one! Again.. snowfall I think will generally be 3-6" east of the immediate piedmont and 4 - 8" in higher elevations.

This has a very high likelihood too change!

 

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Messy mix probable Thursday and Thursday Night

There is a fairly strong chance that a mix of snow, rain,freezing rain, and sleet will be occurring Thursday and Thursday night.

This is especially true of the Piedmont and mainly west of I -95. Areas of higher elevations could see some accumulating snow before a mix also comes into play there. Not a lot of time so this will be all for now! Please note, that, unlike the last 2 storms, more cold air is already in place before the start of the system.

 

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Downgrade snow alert to just some flakes with rain - Brutal cold likely next weekend!

Just not cold enough and a storm that will not get its act together until too late! So we will see rain and many places will likely see a mix at some point overnight, but accumulations are not likely. I could see a dusting and I still feel a bit worried about abandoning accumulations, but i am not getting the Forecast Model support. I will need to watch maps today and this evening to be sure I do not have to reverse course, but again, this winter, we have to call off a real snow alert and just make you aware of the possibility for some snow later tonight.

This week will be a busy one with another possible winter system Thursday/Friday and then a brutally cold snow this coming weekend! Highs may stay in the teens to even single digits in the mountains. Systems could be poised for more snowy concerns next week as we stay pretty cold!

So the key here, less chances of snow.. a seasonable weather week, another chance of wintry weather Thursday and Friday followed by the coldest cold of the season!

Hang on for the bumpy ride!

More later!

Snow threat still there.. but not as enthusiastic about a big event

Trends on models have been to get this storm together later than would be needed for a larger snowstorm in the area. that being said, some details are obviously not know, and this one has a chance to surprise us. The forecast models have shown a move further east and north with the precipitation. This trend may continue or could be wrong. I am certain some precipitation will fall tomorrow and tomorrow night. I am also fairly certain areas will see snow after some rain for a while. I am not certain if much more than 1  to 3 inches would fall. Areas likely to see snow after a mix would actually be along and just east of I 95 north of Fredericksburg and this would happen tomorrow night. Areas west of I 95 north of Fredericksburg and just up and east of the Piedmont could see a 1 to 2" snow. If models continue to trend unfavorable for heavier precipitation, rain may not turn to snow until right at the end. On the other hand, there may be some more adjustments

So I am not enthusiastic about a big storm, and I am concerned by the trends. They could reverse and we could see more snow so this one is going to be a tough one!

More to come!

Continued threat of Wintry weather Sunday.. but details are fuzzy

There will be a storm and there is the distinct possibility of snow, but the temperatures at the surface may just be warm enough that accumulations become somewhat limited. There may also be a lot of forecast model issues at this time that are causing me to think less of the storm for the time being. The possibilities still run the spectrum from rain most place to more snow, and the lighter or heavier amounts. Now it looks fairly certain there will be some wintry weather in the region, the amounts and impact are way too early to detail.

Next week looks cold and also has another potential snow threat later in the week. We are entering an active winter pattern!

Increasing Chance of Significant Winter Storm Sunday into Monday

Situation will need to be monitored but it appears a strong Nor'easter may be ready to blast the region with Heavy precipitation Sunday into Monday. Preliminary model output does put areas in a risk for significant wintry precipitation. This has shown up several times on models in the past and then changed dramatically so I will continue to monitor!

All for now!

The site is back on line! Mild start of the week. A slow cool down and potential storminess!

Yes, I had some major technical issues this week that brought http://www.midatlanticweather.com off the net for almost three days! Well, I am glad to say all parts are back up and functional now! The forum is up again too though I lost a few days of data and a memeber or two because of this! If you can go back and sign up I would appreciate it!

For this week, we will stay very mild, even warmish with highs in the Mid 60s Monday and Tuesday. A front will approach and cross the region this Wednesday and then knock temperatures back to cooler values, but still above normal. More precip will fall this Friday and some areas could see it mix with Snow overnight Friday night, especially in the Mountains.

Longer term there appears to be at least 1 to 2 storm threats the following week. The first looks like rain and maybe what is needed to reverse the warmer pattern and make it head towards  a snowier and colder pattern. If things come together right the second could be the first real now threat in a while.

Look for some changes to http://www.midatlanticweather.com as a new format may be used and at least a link to a home weather station, at Mid Atlantic Weather's home, is on the way!

All for now!