NEXT 10 DAYS...

the next 10 days will feature a number of things. first will be a warm up.. then around the 1st of jan, the NAO goes negative, with a positive PNA, a greenland block is now on the models, and we have a possible storm on coast around the 2nd and 3rd. the euro as of this writing has a storm on the coast in perfect position for a snow storm, and the gfs has a storm more inland, so we still got 10 days, so alot can happen stay tuned..

luke

MAYBE SOME ICE AT THE START.

well temps have hardly budged today its 1 30 pm and im still at 28.0F so we maybe seeing some sleet snow or ZR at the start of precip tonight, but whatever we get should be rain by tomorrow . looking ahead.. will be a warm up rest of the week. then NAO goes negative and a possible coastal by the jan 2-3,2009 time frame, but ... thats 9 days out so im sure alot will need to be re visited by then, as alot will probably change .

*** luke ***

Light mix tonight into Sunday

Everything looks colder. A very light mix will happen tonight. This will be an event for the valleys and immediate piedmont with some snow and sleet for Maryland and northern virginia with a mix of sleet and freezing rain to end. Precipitation will be light. I see a winter weather advisory being issued by 4pm today for areas along and west of i-95 down to federicksburg and west. Then mountains and immediate piedmont down to roanoke.

All for now.
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Sent from my BlackBerry Wireless Device

WEEKEND STORM

looking like a mix to raqin for most, ... those of you up,in central pa on north and west of I-81, may see more snow. but near the big cities and south of mason dixon, looks to be a mix to rain.. just not enough cold air gonna be entrenched at low levels or upper levels aloft... of course this can change, but this is how i see it now

*** luke ***

Updates later tonight - Light Mix followed by rains

A little more of a mix than I thought could occur, but realize that we have a rain storm, a cold one, on the way Saturday night into Sunday. The front end could feature a little snow and sleet, but count on rain.

Mountains of Northern VA and MD - Bit more snow
Valleys of Northern VA and MD - Some Ice to deal with

Overall, any mix changing to rain Sunday morning.

VERY cold Sunday later afternoon and Monday

Warming Tuesday afternoon into Christmas.

White Christmas is a No - Go for us!

All for now!
 

Not as clear cut for Sunday, but some snow is likely Saturday night

As usual for this area of the country, a clear cut snow forecast is almost impossible! And this will prove no different. I do expect there will be some snow Saturday night for northern regions, but a wintry mix is more likely into Sunday and then maybe just rain. A lot to watch and ponder and this could go either way at this point.

Jimmy
 

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM ON DEC 21-22

heres part of the discussion this morning ...

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEEP YOUR EYE ON LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN. SIG WINTER EVENT MAY BE
UNFOLDING DRG THIS TIME. GFS IS GETTING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A VERY
CLASSIC PTN FOR WINTER WX IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS W. IAD FCST
MAX TEMP OF 33 IS DOWN A DEG VERSUS YESTERDAYS MEX MAX GUIDANCE FOR
SUN AND IT WILL START OFF BELOW FRZG TO START THE EVENT.

850 MB TEMPS START THE DAY AT MINUS 7 IN THE MTNS WITH SFC SYSTEM
FCST OVR KY AT 12Z SUNDAY. 2NDRY LOW THEN BEGINS TO FORM ALG THE
CAROLINA COAST. AGAIN...STAY TUNED. IF YOU DON`T LIKE WINTER
WX...MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO CALL YOUR FAVORITE AIRLINE AND GET THAT
TICKET TO MIAMI.

looks very interesting this weekend.. stll 4 days to go, stay tuned!!

***Luke***

Rain and a little mix this morning - Showers this afternoon. Light Mix for some Thursday Night. Winter Storm possible Saturday - Sunday!

The mixing was not that impressive overnight. I am again glad I had not hyped this event, though I was so busy i would not have been able to do much this time. The showery weather will persist today, but not as much rain. Cloudy and cool conditions. Tomorrow as the day progresses more rain will start to enter the picture. Again in the northern regions some ice could occur. This looks like more of a Maryland and maybe far northern Virginia.

The bigger threat appears this Saturday night as a low pressure approaches from the south after the cold air has better settled into the region.This is too early to tell, but snow does look to break out Saturday night with a mixing in the southern regions and possible changeover to rain, while north regions change to a mix east of 95. This could be the first significant snow of teh season for a large part of the area!

All for now!

this is a nowcast situation

with all the different types of precip around, its very hard to pinpoint and predict who gets what,.. for example. at 7 pm i was getting heavy sleet and 33 degrees, now at 8 40 pm im getting a sleet rain mix at 32.7 degrees, lol so i think this is more of a now cast, meaning its ever changing, and always has to be updated with what kind of precip we have... regardless on what kind you get tonight, i think by tomorrow afternoon most should see rain. but this weekend could be interesting, but more on that later. be safe on the roads..

***LUKE***

Messy weather week!

I know many would like an update.

Right now this is a route 15 and west threat up into maryland. Sleet and some snow possible. Enough ice for a winter storm warning. The key problem spots will be the elevated surfaces. Route 15 north and west from charlottesville.

Snow and sleet the closer you are to PA. Some areas of western MD could see 2 to 4 inches of slop!

About all i have for now!
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Sent from my BlackBerry Wireless Device

WINTER STORM WARNING/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYS

depending upon where you live, your could have a winter storm warning( in the far western counties) to a winter weather adivsory ( for the central counties) for wintry mix and iceing conditions, this is an ever changing event, plz stay tuned, ill be updating as the day and night goes on.

***Luke***

over running rain, then maybe something wintry next weekend

looks like overrunning rain for the midweek to the end of the week. a stationary front will set up just south of us, and waves of low pressure will ride along the front. at this time it looks like rain. by the time next weekend comes around, we could have a storm coming up from the south as per day 7 of HPC proggs. of course i like say, that is 7 days out, so alot will probably change some what so stay tuned

luke

Some challenges, but a cool rainy week looks likely after a balmy day of 60s Monday!!

This week will not be entirely cut and dry when it comes to precipitation types. The reason, the cold air that may be able to seep further south than what the models currently are showing. If this occurs, some days could feature a mix of rain and snow in the northern regions. I am not sold that it will be that way, but it MAY enter teh forecast. The NWS in Sterling has just added that possibility for Tuesday and Tuesday night in Maryland and Northern Virginia. Right now, expect cold rain and maybe that some sleet could be involved Tuesday in northern regions.

Unfortunately, a chance of rain or showers will persist all week after a rather balmy Monday (Highs in the 60s) a cold front stalls over the area and is a conveyor belt for precipitation in several waves as systems ride along the front.

Why might we see some frozen precipitation out of this? A cold hogh in Eastern Canada could be stronger than forecast or further south. If either of these are true, more chances for wintry weather could nter the picture. As of this morning, I am thinking that the synoptic set up just is not right.

We look drier next weekend after the last wave of precip moves through Friday Evening. Christmas week looks seasonal early with a chance that right around Christmas day or shortly after, colder air invades!

All for now!

Jimmy

possible snow/ rain chences in december...

well we have a few chnces at something( rain or snow).. coming up.

first: dec 16th - 18th: this looks to be more of an overrunning event, waves will track west to east along a front that SHOULD be south of us, with isentropic lift ahead of waves if we are cold enough we get snow, if the front doesnt go far enough south then we get rain, still tooo early to even have an idea, and models arent agreeing right now ( whats new ).

dec 19th-21st and dec 23rd-25th: these two are on the models, but at this time are too far away to even try to have an idea, like i always say... models will change many times before the event gets here, so we have no idea at this time, but there are the possiblitys

stay tuned:

luke

NORMAL TEMPS

looking like temps will remain near or slightly above normal for the next 5 days, maybe some rain at the end of the peiod, no snow or ice storms on the horizon at least for the next 5-7 days, stay tuned...

Luke

RAIN is the headline with a little mix to make things interesting at the end

The good news at this point is that I did not over hype the chance of snow or winter weather too much on my Snow and winter weather forecast. The issue is that it will not do to much at all and what we see will not be likely to accumulate, at least in teh form of wintry weather!

We have a lot of rain that is going to fall today! In the neighborhood of 2 to 3 inches. Some areas could see 4 inches. The NWS has issues a Flood watch and I have to agree with that.

The Far Northwestern areas will see some ice late in the day and a turnover to snow is likely at some point overnight from west to east. The areas to see accumulations will be mountain areas, and some immediate valleys and piedmont could see 1 - 2 slushy inches on grassy areas. Areas east (East of I-81) will likely see just a dusting at best and then areas further east just some snow showers and not much of anything as the precipitation winds down late tonight and tomorrow morning. All that being said, it is possible some regions could see more snow west and Northwest and especially more on the west facing mountains and areas where colder air can start funneling in easier.

All in all, this is a complicated set up. There could still be some more wintry weather than what I am thinking, but, many factors are working against that so I would think a raw an very rainy day is in store!

We look to be more seasonal in temps as we go past a cold Saturday and temps could end up in the upper 40s and mid and upper 50s in parts of the region next week. We may also see more rain chances starting Monday night and lasting through Wednesday!

Summing it up.
Mountains and Immediate piedmont - lots of rain - ending with some snow 1-2 " east of mountains, 2-isolated 4" in mountains.
Immediate Piedmont up to I-95 - lots of rain, some snow at the end, likely mixed with rain - no accumulations
Mountains and west - solid 2-4" after a changeover with some ice potential as temperatures fall today and the transition time occurs
East of I-95- lots of rain - brief mix with snow at the end. Better chances further north you are

After a colder Saturday, moderation is on the way!

All for now!

Complicated! Rainy, some ice,.. likely little bit of snow

FIRST I want to say that there is going to be a lot of rain the next couple of days. In order of 2 to 4" if things pan out the way they may.

SECOND it will be very warm tomorrow and could include some thunder.

THIRD a front will swing through and how far it goes will mean a big difference in what we get weather wise. I can see sleet and some freezing rain, especially piedmont. Snow, sleet and freezing rain are likely to be along and west of the mountains.

If we see the front that will cause the rain tomorrow head further south and east than currently forecasted, we may see some more wintry weather. As of now, the areas of the immediate piedmont and mountainous regions will need to be monitored.

This is not a "set in stone" scenario and I could see some surprises, especially with ice potential as cold air damming sets up.

I will be unable to look a lot at this until tomorrow evening. I hope to have some focus by then! Luke will also look at this and keep the conversations going at the forum!

All for now!

Jimmy
 

model diagnostics

, i wanted to explain the difficulty in forecasting with the models. you see, you cant just look at the models and make a forecast. some models have a bias to them for example... the GFS has a cold bias. the ECMWF( euro) has a warm bias., so you have to factor that in... also.. the gfs is known to take a storm wayyy off shore than as days go by, start to bring it back west, so you have to really wait till it gets within 4 or 3 days before you can really make a real guess. and even only 3 days out, the models will still have their bias's, so you have to take that into account. soo... this storm coming on thursday-friday. needs to have more time, the gfs has it a bit too cold. the euro has it a bit too warm. the gfs is a little off the coast, and the ggem is a little off the coast, dgex looks good, right on the benchmark at 18z. the euro, is a tad too far inland. the ukmet, looks pretty good, so... got to take all this into
account, as most models will still fluctuate run to run. so....

basically, we probably wont a have a real good idea who gets snow, and who gets rain till about wednesday. so stay tuned... Jimmy and I will keep you posted

***luke***

LATEST ON POSSIBLE COASTAL!!

heres a excerpt from the NOAA NWS STERLING SITE IN BALTIMORE WASHINGTON AREA.....""Then the models get even more interesting...this mornings 12z European model (ecmwf)
/as well as yesterday evenings 00z European model (ecmwf)/ develops a coastal low
sweeping up the southeast coast into the middle Atlantic by 12z Friday. 12z GFS
ensembles depict a similar solution but with precipitation shield mainly to our
south and east. Am not too confident with either specific solution
at this time as timing gets worked out...but I am confident that this
mornings 12z GFS control run is not in line with the mean ensemble
products and European model (ecmwf)...and we have a highly energized atmosphere middle-
to-late work week which will pose a NE gale/precipitation risk for our County Warning Area
late Thursday into Thursday night.""

just thought id show you all whats coming down, more to come!!

***luke***

COASTAL STORM POSSIBILITY???

looking like we have a possible coastal storm for the wed night thursday- friday time frame....the latest 12z gfs, ukmet, euro, and jma, and to a lesser degree the 06z dgex... all have a coastal storm , allthough slightly at different positions, the exact positioning will need to be looked at by jimmy and myself, its still 4-5 days out, so im sure some things need to be tweaked a little, and im sure some models will fluctuate so definatley something to watch, stay tuned :)

***Luke***

WILL IT SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT?

Probably a little bit, but most will see just flurries! The most energy is headed north of the region and that will end up keeping us away from the best moisture chances. The energy will go straight over the mountains which will also tend to dry it out. That being said, clippers can do a little better than you would think and it would not completely surprise me to see a period of light snow and that could dust quite a few places. LIGHT DUST that is!

It started off VERY cold today! I hit the teens for the first time this season at my house!

Tomorrow, as the system creates a coastal low off of New England, winds will kick up and a very blustery day will be on tap! Highs in the teens to mid 30s for most with strong winds will make it miserable!

Monday will see a calmer day as the High Pressure system slides through and starts to move out.

With some dryness in the air and a storm approaching, it would not surprise me to see some sleet, possibly snow in the northern area, as precipitation starts Tuesday morning, but the precip will be a cold rain.

My thoughts that it could go milder, have been replaced by the the thought that it may not be as cold, but still pretty chilly! This MAY lead to an interesting set up next weekend but things still do not paint the best picture

POSSIBLE SNOW CHANCES FOR NEXT 7 DAYS

well, we have a little clipper coming through sat night, then we have the over running apps runner coming through on teusday-wed( ALTHOUGH THATS MORE OF A RAIN EVENT), ... then we have a possible more important systen for 12th-14th time frame.. many days left for that one, im sure models will meander back and forth. the latest 00z euro, cmc, , and gfs al point to a coastal low( although gfs is more out to sea than cmc and euro, but this far out the gfs is not very reliable anyway more to come, jimmy and i will keep a close eye on this one, remember like i always say... still 6-7 days aout, alot can and probably will change.

luke

Wintery Weather on the way. How long will we stay cold? What are the real snow chances?

Today an Arctic cold front is coming through and will drop temps through Monday. Highs will be 20s and 30s for the most part the next several days. Sunday we will be cold and windy too!

 

We should see some rain showers today. These change to snow in the Higher terrain in western areas.

 

Cold conditions tomorrow and Saturday with highs struggling to the 30s, some low to mid 40s in the south.

 

Saturday will have an increase in clouds and snow showers or even a period of light snow is possible Saturday night. This may whiten the ground in many areas that have not see any accumulating snows this year. Mountains will see the most accumulations. There is a chance that the system will start to energize on the coast and cause a more sustained snow in eastern areas, especially NE Maryland and Delaware.

 

Cold and windy conditions Sunday and Less windy but still cold Monday.

 

Another storm system approaches Tuesday and timing seems to have more to do with whether we see a mix or just rain at the onset. Despite this, at this time, all signs point to more liquid than frozen precipitation.

 

With the pattern changing a bit a milder pattern is looking more likely later next week into next weekend. Some opposition on this by some models, but it appears this is pretty likely.

 

All from Jimmy now!

 

 

wintry precip possibilitys..

well we have a possible clipper coming through this saturday-sunday, could be some light snow, then we have a stronger system, for the 10th-11th,the later system on the 10th-11th is still too far away to pinpoint at this time, models are still all over the place. the clipper could put down anywhere from a trace to maybe an inch or 2, but remember like i always say.. still many days till events, so alot can and probably will change with the models, but this is how it looks at this time.

luke

GFS

well the 00z run puts the storm on the 9th-11th off the coast and really bloew it up, so remember ,we still have alot of time, and many many runs of gfs and euro and cmc, and so on... left, so im sure some will change, but, as of now.... its looking better for snow lovers... at this time anyway, stay tuned

model spreads

hey all, jimmys right, i do get a little excited when it comes to storms lol, but the truth is.. it is still a good week away, and there is a big model spread with the track, some models want to take this storm farther inland, and a few models want to bring it up the coast, then you got some models wanting to bring warm air up, and some models wanting to keep it cold enough for snow... and lately no 2 runs are the same, very hard to pinpoint anything until probably few more days.. but i cant help getting excited.. winters here ... gotta luv it ... more to come :)

Luke

First we will see a BIG chill down as an Arctic front moves through. Highs this weekend will be widespread 20s and 30s!

SNOW? I am not sure. Luke and I are looking at models. He is getting excited, and I see the potential. But we have some limiting factors. The biggest is the negative NAO! that being said, there could be enough cold air at the start of the event for snow, if we get a storm. But what will happen? A Miller B, a Miller A? I m not confident now but see some things to look at!

All for Jimmy now! More to come!

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM 9TH-11TH

were still watching the " potential" of a winter storm on the 9th-11th time frame, models are not agreeing with each other. so we need to wait and see.. as we get closer im sure models will come more in line with a solution. wwhether good or bad

luke

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM on 9th-11th????

hey all,

well there is a real possibility that a storm could be brewing for the 9th-11th time frame, GFS has been a bit eratic as we all know it usually is.. but the latest 12z EURO has a nice storm just off carolina coast, it looks great, but remember still 8 days away so im sure it will go back and forth on the models.... stay tuned either way it certainly bears watching.

Luke