HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE WEATHER!

Repeat from earlier this week as the same issues are there!

THE RAIN!
Tonight and tomorrow we will see a lot of rains. We have the potential region wide to see 2 to 4 inches of rain. There will be bigger rains in Eastern VA, Eastern NC, and Eastern SC. The concerns there are for 4 to 6" of rain with isolated 8 to 12" amounts. There are multiple flash flood watches and warnings  which will be replaced by more in parts! Please stay tuned to local media and weather outlets! NO MATTER HOW MANY TIMES I SAY IT, PEOPLE WILL DO IT! DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER!!!! IT CAN KILL! IT TAKES ONE STUPID DECISION TO CHANGE THE WORLD WITH YOU NOT THERE!n

SEVERE!!!
Severe is definitely possible - Tornado watches are up for eastern SC, NC, and SE VA. This will need to be monitored.

MUCH COOLER!!!
Much cooler air by end of the weekend and early next week. Highs may be the 50s by Monday for parts of the region!

A LOT TO MONITOR!!!!!!


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Heavy Rains, high winds, severe - then cooler

Today we will see an increase in clouds and rain overspread the region from the south. Rain will increase tonight and become heavy at times. Rainfall rates on a saturated ground will make for a high potential that flash flooding could occur so Flood Watches are up now, and warnings will likely be put up for locations by tomorrow morning.

As noted before, flooding rains do kill people so please do not drive through standing water!

Tomorrow will bring more turbulence so localized severe weather could affect the area including the potential for short lived tornadoes.

This will be another time to stay tuned to weather and news outlets for severe watches and warnings!

Friday will see a return to sunny conditions and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This weekend into early next week looks cool with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and nighttime lows in the 40s and lower 50s.


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Rain ends for today - more on the way - cool weekend!

Quickly - rain will diminish this morning and come to an end. Highs will be in the low and mid 80s. Another system with tropical connections will come through Wednesday night and Thursday - more heavy rains and floods possible as well as winds. The weekend looks cool with 60s during the day and 40s at night! All I have time for as battery is about to die!

Here comes the rain! X2?! SEVERE AND FLOODS POSSIBLE/LIKELY! THE RAIN!

THE RAIN!
The next 2 days we will see a lot of rains. We have the potential region wide to see 2 to 4 inches of rain. There will be bigger rains in SW VA, Western NC, and NW GA. The concerns there are for 4 to 6" of rain with isolated 8" amounts. There are multiple flash flood watches up which will be replaced by warnings in parts! Please stay tuned to local media and weather outlets! NO MATTER HOW MANY TIMES I SAY IT, PEOPLE WILL DO IT! DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER!!!! IT CAN KILL! IT TAKES ONE STUPID DECISION TO CHANGE THE WORLD WITH YOU NOT THERE!

OK, what is coming up next? Well we have unanimous support for a tropical/nor'easter system to come on in Thursday time frame. Now this will be bad news. Again a half foot or more of rain could fall for parts of the region! This will have a wind and severe component too! Please be in tune with the weather this week!

SEVERE!!!
With such a dynamic system we have the opportunity to see severe storms tomorrow and tomorrow night and even Tuesday in the region. Strong winds and even tornadoes are possible! This will need to be watched and again, you need to stay tuned to news and radio outlets, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT! That makes it hard to stay alert when it is overnight!

MUCH COOLER!!!
Yes, it is much cooler and will pretty much stay that way except Tuesday, when we could see some warmer air punch in the region and make the temps jump to the mid and upper 80s! That may also be problematic for severe weather. 70s will otherwise dominate.

A LOT TO MONITOR!!!!!!


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HOT - The beginning of the drought reversal coming!

Record heat today with highs soaring the mid and even upper 90s! This is the 66th 90+ degree day for the DC Metro area! It will be breezy as well making the fire danger elevated this afternoon. A dry front crosses the region tonight and cooler air begins filtering into the region. The front will hang up and a low pressure system will develop in the south and ride up and west of the Appalachians early next week. With tropical moisture and good inflow from the Atlantic and the Gulf, this looks like a good bet for some heavier rain totals in the inches (preliminary thoughts of 1.5 to 4 inches) for parts of the region.

Of note, with such a hot ocean off the east coast and in the Gulf, and it becoming fall, this usually spells a reversal to the drought. I have seen it before as the contrast between the cooler air from Canada and the warmth of the ocean spells many east coast soaking rains as things try to meet equilibrium. So expect the drought to be erased in the next few months based on what I know. The next system is a foretelling of what we will likely see.

Temps tomorrow will be in the 80s and in the low and middle 70s starting Sunday and continuing Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances increase from south to north during Sunday and could hit the Northern areas by early Sunday night whereas rains will begin Sunday morning in the southern regions.

Matthew was born yesterday and is headed for the Central American coast. He will curve and could re-emerge and restrengthen and ultimately be the fuel for next weeks soakers in the east coast. Lisa continues a weak storm way out in the Atlantic.

Weather is getting a bit more interesting! Expect more frequent updates.

Stay cool! All for now!

HOT!

Just plain hot today and tomorrow - Low to mid 90s with humidity. Maybe an isolated storm - possibly one being strong but not as widespread as yesterday. Cooler air Saturday and especially Sunday. Showers possible early next week with still cooler air!

Hot days return - last day of Summer - isolated storm possibly severe

The heat has returned for 3 days and it will feel like summer the last day of summer. If we hit another 3 day stretch of 90s that will be yet another heat wave we experienced on such a hot year! There is the possibility that some isolated storms could fire this afternoon, though they are more likely in the higher elevations. Due to some dynamics they could be severe with high winds. We will have to watch - but not a drought buster!

Cooler air will arrive this weekend with a high in the 60s possible Sunday for the north and the mountains and 70s elsewhere. Showers and some storms could also visit, which, even though they hit on a weekend, would be welcome! Saturday will have highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and also have chances of showers and storms.

Tropical storm Lisa is churning way out in the Atlantic. A Caribbean low should be watched for development.

All for now!

Dry days continue - Temps in the Mid and Upper 80s

Dry day on tap with highs in the mid to upper 80s today. 90 degrees and above looks possible Wednesday through Friday before some cooler air this weekend. An isolated storm possible tomorrow and tomorrow night, but best chances for rain (not great chances) returns Saturday.

All for now.

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Cooler today - heating up mid to late week

A mainly dry front crossed the region overnight. Cooler and drier air
coming through and keeping temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s today.
Much warmer air will bring another round of 90 degree weather
Wednesday through Friday. The next rain chances now do not appear
until next weekend. The drought continues to worsen!

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Sunny weather - need rain, maybe some

Another bright and beautiful dry fall day. Temps in the mid and upper
80s. Temps will stay in the 80s for most the week, but some low 90s
not out of the question for southern VA and NC, especially mid week.
There *MAY* be some severe storms Wednesday to contend with. A chance
of rain Wednesday and Thursday looks possible.

All for now!

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Seasonal Temps but in NEED of RAIN!

We are on drought watch as we are truly dry. I am not seeing any rain on the horizon either after the showers on Thursday. This is not good and we are truly in a drought. The week looks dry with highs in the 80s for most, with a few 90s possible Sunday and Monday. This is unfortunate. Parts of the region are now in Extreme drought - http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_northeast.htm and many are in a Severe Drought -http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_southeast.htm - So it is time to start doing voluntary water restrictions until we can get more rain.

In the tropics we have been very busy! Igor is the one that is left and threatens Bermuda - it will be 24+ hours of tropical Storm force winds. The size of Igor mean that he will likely bring 30+ foot waves to Bermuda.

All for now!

Dry air and much cooler - need rain!

So the dry air is racing in with gusty winds and cooler temps! Tomorrow's highs will be in the 60s for the mountains, 70s North, and low and mid 80s south. The cooler air will hang with us as temps stay in the 70s and low and mid 80s through the weekend. Sunday will bring a chance of a needed shower or storm. Next week some warming will occur and places in the south will approach 90 while north will see mid 80s.Cooler 80s and 70s will come back mid next week!

With cooler air coming and the need for your lawn to have the best nutrients, it is time to Aerate! My buddy runs The Aeration Corps in NOVA and I strongly recommend him!
http://www.theaerationcorps.com/ They have a special going. Shoot, spread the word!

Hot few days, then cooler

Going to go to 90 or above today for most of the region. Sunny skies
and a breeze with low humidity make this quite the fire threat. That
threat will increase tomorrow with even drier conditions and wind. We
will see a cool down Thursday and Friday with highs of the 70s in the
north and mountains. Rain chances arrive this weekend (and are very
needed) with highs back in the low to mid 80s north and mid and upper
80 South.

All for now

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Updates on impact

North Carolina Coastal: Expecting High Winds, coastal flooding, and serious rains. Impacts will be felt from late tomorrow into Friday morning. Winds will likely be 30 to 50 mph and some gusts to hurricane strength.

Virginia Coast: Impacts felt from 3am through Friday - Winds 25 to 45 with higher gusts to 60 mph. Some rain, coastal Flooding likely.

Ocean City MD: Impacts felt Friday 6am through later evening  - Winds 25 to 40 with higher gusts to 55 mph. Some rain, coastal Flooding likely.

That is my current thinking. CLOSE CALL - if it goes west of this, it will be very bad news for NC.

More later.

ALARMS RAISED - HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECOMING LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS

Definite shift in some models on Noon runs has prompted Hurricane warnings to fly and raised alarms that the NC Outer Banks and Far Eastern VA could see some hurricane force winds and some flooding is definitely coming to the area. Please stay alert! Heed Local state and emergency management for your area. Do not trust hobbyists on what will happen, nor take a chance with Life and Property! Earl is not something to take lightly.

I will try and do small posts as I hear or see things!

Jimmy