Cold start - milder day - Mild weekend with showers - seasonal early next week

After a very cold start we will have a much milder day with highs in the low to mid 50s possible. No winds will make it feel much warmer after the cold spell we just came out of.

Tomorrow again will see mild 50s through the region and even a few 60 degree temps cannot be ruled out. The same will go true Saturday as highs will be even milder in the mid 50s to mid 60s for some. Clouds and a chance of rain will also come in to the picture later Saturday into Sunday.

Just a note that a wave of low pressure could form on the front that moves through Sunday. This could enhance rainfall and also provide an opportunity for rain to change to snow especially up north. This is just a possibility at this point and not quite the forecast.

Next week we will see temps seasonal to slightly below. Towards the end of the week we may have a system to watch for potential wintry mix.

All for now!

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Just a long term note

It really does appear that a much colder pattern will again establish itself mid January! This is flying in the face of my ideas of a milder month!

Also - a threat for wintry weather should also occur sometime between the 3rd and the 7th. This may be a bigger threat in PA than VA and MD.

All for now!

Quick updates

Forecast on target for 40stoday. Low 50s to near 60 tomorrow. And Mid 50s to low 60s possible Friday and Saturday. Rain chances increase Saturday late into Sunday and more 40s in line for early next week. Very long term a return to colder air does look likely with a return to a stormy pattern.

Sorry for the quick update!

All for now.

Much warmer today than thought

Trends will continue this week. Again, a peek in the long term is showing seasonal temps after a warm up Friday and Saturday. The Jan 7th event is looking more like a cold rain, but it is VERY far off as of now! So we will see!

More later!

Cold air to take a break - showers in the forecast - Long Term

We have another breezy and cold day today with highs pretty much in the 30s and breezy winds continuing. Winds will subside and the temps for the week will slowly get warmer. highs will be in the 40 to 50 degree range by Thursday and mid 40s to mid 50s for New Year's eve. New Years day could see highs in the 50s to near 60 for parts of the area. Cooler air will come back early next week, but not the cold pattern that we have had, just seasonal temps!

As far as a wintry threat, there could be something to watch around the 7th of January. Cooler temps could return towards the middle of the month, but climatology says that a La Nina could mean a milder January. It is hard to know for certain at this point. My winter outlook was to have a milder January and February.

All for now!

The storm that could not hit Northern VA, DC, Central MD, and South Central PA. This storm blanketed all major I-95 cities with at least some snow from Georgia to Maine! It missed a small area! Where? Check the image!

You have to admit, that is an odd looking map! Southeastern PA did get some more so the whole is even smaller. What a storm it has been! The "Boxing Day Blizzard" will be a historical storm as totals quickly mounted to upwards of 2 feet in many places in less than 15 hours! That is impressive. Winds gusting to near 70 MPH! For a while the Mid Atlantic looked like it MAY be in for the storm but models flipped back and forth with this region as they began to lock on the Northeast as the place to truly unleash its' fury! 

What is left for the Mid Atlantic? Wind now. But not to downplay that this was a significant and historic storm for parts of VA, NC, SC, and GA as well. SE VA ended up with as much as 14 inches of snow and Blizzard conditions for the Eastern Shore. It was a great system! 

Why couldn't the models figure this out so that Meteorologists were playing flip flopping craziness as the models would shift east and then back west. This was not fun for anyone! ME TOO! And, as the map shows, I just felt that the Northern VA, MD, and PA areas WOULD end up with snow. Ironically, the models hinted that this would not be the case. So I was wrong. 

Where do we go from here. A cold 36 hours to go and then a slow, and then dramatic mild up for this weekend as temps soar into the 50s and even a few 60s maybe. Rain showers are in the forecast for the weekend! LONG term we should see temps come back down and we may see some more wintry threats in early 2011 - that first week in fact could pose 2 threats!

All for now!

Terrible Forecast by me!

Storm was east of I-95  from Richmond to Philadelphia - Snow will be 1-2 inches 10 miles either side of 95 from Fredericksburg to Baltimore. Further east and along the Eastern Shore - 4 to 8" with some up to 10 and 12"

The storm will start to back fill in the Northern VA, DC, and Baltimore areas and a strip of another 1- 3" area may develop somewhere 20 miles west of the DC Metro area - not certain but I am seeing this start to occur.

Last Friday I had a hunch this would be the case - I should have been much more cautious!

Eastern PA, NJ, NY, CT, and Eastern ME will all see a serious storm!

Sorry again. My lack of updates were due to family obligations. I am really sorry for the false alarms! I will be MUCH more cautious next time!

All for now!

Jimmy

Snow occurring, but less than thought and further east

At this point it looks further east, but it still is developing. 1 to 3 inches already in SE VA. It has been struggling to build north and west.

I would lower totals from earlier by 2 to 4 inches in the west and along I-95, especially north of I-95.

All for now.

A few Select Location First Guesses!

Snow today will be light and not the main event. Snow will increase in intensity as the night goes on. With winds, Blizzard conditions could be met east of I-95 and maybe west!

All initial thoughts - The models are trending bigger and bigger - things are getting interesting.

Baltimore - 11"
Dulles - 8"
DC - 9"
Charlottesville - 7"
Richmond - 12"
Norfolk - 11"
Newport News - 13" Blizzard possible
Emporia - 11"
Eastern Shore - 14" Blizzard possible
DE - 14 - 18" Blizzard possible

More to come - If models continue to trend these will be way under done!

All for now!

SNOW ALERT!

Not enough time to get into details. Area likely to see a moderate to heavy snow, especially east of I-95!

Watches up for many!

More later!

Snow threat still minimal

There was bad data in the models this morning that tainted the output. I will keep watching. Not expecting much of anything north of Roanoke to Richmond to Wallops Island. Light snow below this. Eastern VA, Eastern NC, Interior SC and even GA could see the dusting to 2 inches in spots.

All for now!

OF Course noon models show possible significant snow again for parts of region!

Stay tuned! Updates later this afternoon!

Snow alert! Southern Half of VA, Most of NC, Interior SC, GA!

The storm system that was originally looking like a huge hit for the region will still output some snow for parts of the area. The southern 2/3rds of VA will likely see a period of snow with some accumulations possible. As of now I am thinking 1 to 2 inches with areas seeing 3 inches. SW VA in higher elevations may see 2 to 4". The far eastern part of NC and VA may also see some enhanced snow due to some energizing of the system as it hits the ocean.

Light Snow seems possible for SC and GA as well with some 1 to 2" totals!

Still a lot to watch as a lot of energy is trying to get itself together over the region. The outcome could be snow showers for the Northern Third of VA and MD.

NC may really see some 2 to 4" snows based on the energy. This is especially true for eastern NC.

All for now!

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Snow still looks possible, not major

There will be a system and there will be snow in the area. Snow looks heavier along the coast.

This is subject to change and it could come back as a bigger snow.

Still a lot to watch.

All for now!

Again - Snow threat decreases - One more model later today - Update around 3pm

I should learn in a La Nina weather pattern year to be very cautious with storm phasing. The truth is, the phasing is very hard to accomplish. It also means a high amount of uncertainty up to the event.

Jimmy

MAJOR snow threat reduced!

Models backed off on Major snow last night. Before changing the areas
for heavier snow I will await noon model updates.

--
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SNOW STORM POTENTIAL IS HIGH

A continued look at the models shows the potential for a SERIOUS snow storm that would blanket the interior GA, Interior SC, Most of NC, VA, MD, Eastern PA, NJ, and Eastern New England! This is a HUGE system with the possibility of historic output of snow. Exact track is difficult to pin down, but it is time to prepare alternate travel plans and get some extra Turkey and Stuffing ready!

At this point I would bet on a significant snow storm that could turn into a Blizzard for Eastern VA, Eastern MD, and Eastern NC. That is right! A Blizzard for the Mid Atlantic!

The impacts for the southern areas will begin Saturday, and snow will reach the Mid Atlantic Late Saturday or overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Much more will be figured out in the next 24 Hours as the storm system that will cause the snow storm has not even come on shore on the west coast. That will make a huge difference.

What that does mean is - we STILL may see shifts in the forecast track and that could actually mean more snow or less. Also, the intensity of the system could be different than what I am seeing now!

All for now!

HISTORIC CHRISTMAS SNOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY

I am giving a heads up that the Christmas snow storm will be a likely event. I am not certain of all the details but the potential does exist for parts of the region to see in excess of 8" of snow and some could see a foot or more if some of the models come out to be true. There is also a possibility that blizzard conditions could stretch from parts of Maryland to New York. This could also be a long stretch of snow lasting from Saturday afternoon until early Monday morning.

A LOT of details still need to be considered and we are just dealing with forecast models at this point so the actual event could be drastically different (more or less snow could occur!)

I will update tomorrow morning on the latest!

All for now!

Jimmy

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Continued Cold - Snow chances are increasing for this weekend!

As we continue in a cold pattern we will see a pretty sunny week. A clipper will come through the region tomorrow and could touch off some flurries in the area. Late this week there appears to be the best chance of snow so far this winter. I believe that there will be snow. I am starting to see the possibility of a major system. I do not want to bite off on it yet, but we need to be prepared.

Just a heads up for longer term. Temps may moderate a little but more chances of snow could also exist. I suspect that January will end up milder than normal.

All for now.

Snow on the way. I am unable to be thorough due to medical issues in my family.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Quick Morning Update

A few pockets of freezing rain did occur. Be careful! Rain showers will persist today. Snow will then pick up tonight in the mountains and then snow showers could hit the area through tomorrow morning rush. I am concerned about local snow issues tomorrow morning. Do not be surprised to see some snow showers.

VERY COLD winds and air Monday and Tuesday. Snow chances return by Thursday for Northern NC and Southern 2/3rds of VA.

Going to be an interesting week!

All for now!

Very busy next 36 hours with a variety of prec

The situation is still a little unsettled. There are pockets of freezing temps that will be around overnight. These pockets will see some freezing rain. Areas along and west of the mountains will see a variety of precip. Sleet, freezing rain and snow. The entire area will see rain tomorrow morning with a mix and change to snow coming back quickly as the arctic front moves eastward. Eventually areas east of the mountains could see a period of snow tomorrow evening. A trace to an inch may occur east of the mountains up to the I-95 corridor. Usually dry air really starts to dry up any post frontal precipitation so this should be a rather brief period of precip.

We have a cold week ahead, especially early. Areas will be the 20s and lower 30s with high winds with low wind chills. Areas will see below zero wind chills overnight Monday into Tuesday. The temps will relax a bit on Wednesday and Thursday. We will need to watch a southern system which could throw enough moisture this way for a wintery mix and snow event. We will have to watch this closely. This would be significant.

All for now! Possible alerts as we get more reading on the system for the next 36 hours.

Jimmy

Milder few days - Rain - Then Arctic blast - LONG TERM???

We will reach the low and mid 40s today and mid and upper 40s tomorrow in areas east of the mountains. Highs will be in the 40s Sunday as rain falls across the region. Saturday night, as the precip begins, pockets of areas could be at the freezing mark so some freezing rain is possible. As Sunday progresses an arctic front will pass through and rain will change to snow in the mountains and even east of the mountains later in the day. Sunday night could have some snow showers and actually may have some slick travel as rapid freezing may occur. Blustery and cold repeat of last week will occur Monday through Wednesday, but this time temps will be about 10 degrees colder. Tuesday morning wind chills will likely be single digits and below zero! Winds subside, but chilly conditions remain.

Long term? Well, I am no meteorologist, but I read a lot from them. The Pattern Christmas week COULD lead to a white Christmas! YES, could! Ironically, a few other changes and we could reverse the pattern we are in and be mild! So we have 2 different looking long term possibilities. As of now, I am favoring the possibility of a snow storm that will make it a white one for Christmas time. But it is WAY early!

All for now!

Just a quick Update - Rain Sunday - Sharp cool down to follow

I just wanted to state that I am now settled that Sunday will be a rain event. I am now trying to determine how much. I suspect a fairly good period of rain and then the front will come through. Temps will start to crash and it is possible a period of Post Frontal snow could occur, but I would suspect it to be brief.

Temps will be darn cold through Wednesday with highs in the 20s for the most part and very windy conditions. Brutal.

If something changes I will let you know!

It is cold - milder weekend with rain on the way.

Temps will remain cold and winds will remain strong through tomorrow. Highs will be in the 30s area wide and wind chills in the teens and 20s. We will stay cold tomorrow and Thursday with highs in the 30s. Highs warm to the 40s Friday through Sunday setting the stage for a rain storm, not winter storm, Sunday. That system may still have a quick change to snow at the end as much colder air filters in behind it. Monday's temps will be the low to mid 30s and Tuesday we will likely see the coldest temps of the season so far.

The Lake effect snows still continue in full effect and appear that they will start to subside tomorrow morning. Skiers will continue to rejoice with tons of snow pack. The Lake Effect will again be prolific starting Sunday night next week and at least through Tuesday.


All for now!

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December 6th Outlook Podcast available

Let me know what you think!

http://midatlanticweather.net/

WINDY, Dry and cold - possible storm next weekend!

Quite the impressive swath of snow for SW VA and west NC. Some of the higher elevations picked up 5 and 6 inches of snow! Check out Snow Totals at http://forum.midatlanticweather.com/index.php?topic=1721.0

That storm will explode off the east coast and the curl up to Maine. That storm will make it WINDY the through Tuesday. Temps will also stay very cold so wind chills at night will be very cold!

Temps all week now look colder. Highs around 40 in the south and 30s in the north and west.

Next weekend is showing some potential for a storm, but the track is going to make it tough. We may see a start as wintry weather and a changeover, all wintry weather, an icy situation. My thoughts at this point is that we have to watch this all week. Last week we had a storm forecasted that did happen but was smaller than first forecasted. I suspect a storm will form, and track will bring us a mix and then rain.

Stay warm!

All for now!

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Quite a bit of snow falling!

A lot of advisories and even winter storm warnings in higher elevations of SW VA. 1 to inches of snow seems probable along the NC/VA border and up to an inch all the way to the shore of VA and NC. 30 miles either side of th border looks to be the sweet spot. A dusting now looks likely all the way to Richmond area!

 

Flurries are possible through much of VA and NC. Nice little wave here too with some bands of moderate snow at times.

 

WAY late on this! Here was my podcast from this morning!

http://midatlanticweather.net/?attachment_id=941

 

All for now!

 

Jimmy

 

 

 

Snow flurries possible - cold and feeling colder!

This is winter! Feels like it and acting like it. This year's dominating force will be the La Nina episode which reminds me of 2 things! Cold and desert like for precipitation. I also expect that December may end up as the coldest month of the winter season. We will see hints of winter storms, but models will not handle the pattern well and that is what happened with what I thought could be the first storm of the winter season. The Lion turned into a lamb as a clipper system now looks like it will scoot even south of VA making flurries and light snow showers possible in NC. That storm will get its act together once in the ocean and do nothing but bring very cold winds to the region. Highs will struggle out of the 30s most of next week with wind chills in the 20s! Find the scarf and hats!

So daily
- 40s region wide today and even some flurries scattered across central VA.
- Saturday will see high mid 30s to mid 40s with increasing clouds. Showers and snow showers possible in the SW portion of VA and western NC,
- Saturday night will feature scattered snow showers across the central regions of VA and north half of NC from the mountains to the coast!
- Sunday - blustery and cold! Highs likely in the 30s for most, upper 30s south, mid 30s north

Next week - Cold 30s to continue - possibly a few disturbance causing some snow showers.

Long term, if the models are seeing correctly, we could have an ice/snow threat next weekend.

Mid Atlantic Weather GROWING!

I am on the verge of launching yet another part of the Mid Atlantic Weather network of sights. This will include video and podcasts. This is exciting, but I will tell ya, I am a 1 man team, so do not think it will be spectacular! It will be as amateur as it gets! More to come on this.

All for now!

Jimmy

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Very crazy weather morning!

High Winds, Tornado Watch, Flash Flood warnings for many locations. The winds will continue as teh rain ends around midday for most I-95 and west and by this evening near the bay.

Please stay tuned to news and radio outlets as this weather is dangerous!

Also, plan for a LONG commute!

All for now!