Severe weather updates #matlwx

SPC has lowered the chances of. Severe from a 30% chance to 15%. That
being said, I still suspect Severe weather to traverse the area today
with storms mixing down high winds. The tornado threat is there, as
evidenced by watches as close as WV and West PA. We will see how the
dynamics work out today. Warm air and high dew points will help aid
the convection which should also cause locally very heavy rains. Winds
will also be on the increase with gusts up to the 40 mph range. All in
all a day of rough weather. Please stay tuned to radio and TV outlets
for updates, watches, oe warnings.

Mid day update likely

All for now.

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Highlighting severe threat tomorrow

As we head into tomorrow the warm air, high dew points, and system dynamics all point to a threat for severe storms. The system should bring copious amounts of moisture to the region so storms will be heavy rain producers. There is a chance for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The serious time appears in the afternoon and evening.

Please stay alert tomorrow!

Seasonal temps - milder tomorrow - more Severe Monday!

After an extremely busy day yesterday, things have calmed down nicely. Today will be tranquil with highs in the 40s and 50s. It will be variably cloudy.

Tomorrow we will see an increase in clouds and later in the day, Warmer air will begin to make its way northward and so highs will be in the 50s and 60s or even 70 in the south!

Tomorrow night should see the return to rain. Rain could be quite heavy Monday, and, as very warm air surges into the region, a chance of Severe storms. The Severe Storms Prediction Center (SPC) has already outlined the area for a slight risk of severe on Monday. This will be something to watch. Temps will reach as high as the low 80s in the south, mid and upper 70s middle, mid and upper 60s north.

Temps look to cool down to normal after this. Long term there appears to be a chance for some mixed precipitation and rain showers early next Friday. Not so sure I buy into that at this point.

All for now!

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High winds, possible severe

Today we will see winds increase. If there are any breaks in the
clouds we should see temps rise to the 60s. This could set the stage
for some storms which would be able to mix strong winds to the
surface. Winds gusting in the 30 to 45 mph range this AM will increase
and some speeds will be close to 60 this afternoon in North Va, DC,
MD, NJ, DE, and PA. Winds will die down later this evening and temps
will cool to the 20s and 30s. A calm but somewhat cloudy at times
weekend will occur with temps seasonal north in the 40s and 50s. Temps
will be much warmer south with 60s and 70s Sunday Soithern VA and NC.
Temps 50s north, 60s mid, and 70s south look possible Monday as more
rain and storms head into the area. The Severe threat will be analyzed
later, but looks minimal for now.

All for now!

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Severe winds and rain

The rain threat tonight and tomorrow looks heaviest up into PA now and not so much for VA. The wind threat will be very high, especially in the afternoon! High Wind Warnings are now posted for tomorrow afternoon and Wind Advisories before and after.

Severe treat will be isolated. Not so much thunderstorms, but convective showers coming through will mix strong winds which will likely. An isolated tornado may also occur.

The winds will likely gust to 60+ mph during the afternoon. Be prepared for power outages.

Flood watches are also up for the central part of PA, Most of West VA and parts of NJ. Please do not drive through water in your car!

All for now!

Calm day|Heavy Rain|High Winds|Severe

An active period is on the way for the next 48 hours. Today will be the calm before the storm. I should mention the Valleys will see some freezing rain possible west of the mountains as the precipitation overspreads there this morning. This will give way to rain later. Rain will overspread the area throughout the day from west to east. Temps will be seasonable 40s and 50s.

Rain will become Heavy at time tonight into tomorrow especially MD and PA as well as WV where 1 - 2 inch amounts will be common. Northern VA and Far Western VA could see an inch or a bit more, and the north half of VA  will see a half an inch or so. Southern VA down into NC will see a quarter to a half inch which will not help too much in their serious drought in NC.

With snow pack and widespread heavier rains, WV, far West MD, PA, and NJ have flood watches up for tonight and tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be a very windy day, especially Northern VA, MD, DC, PA, and NJ. High wind watches have been posted for winds up to 60mph or higher!

On top of this, as the system moves north a drying will occur in VA and NC and there is a possibility of convective showers and storms that could easily mix high winds to the surface and may even spawn a brief tornado. The risk of winds looks more possible and that could just be from a strong shower and not a thunderstorm tomorrow!

The weekend itself will turn tranquil and seasonal 40s and even low 50s will return.

Monday could be busy too with another strong system possible!

A lot to watch and monitor! Stay alert!

All for now!

Cold day but milder - milder tomorrow - rain on the way

Today will be sunny with highs 30s north to upper 40s south, even 50s in NC.
Increasing clouds tomorrow with rain breaking out Southwest to Northeast by afternoon and then evening. Rain will be moderate to even heavy at times overnight, especially for the north half of area (Northern VA, DC, MD, up into PA). PA will have some snow in the NW and Far west part of the state, but quite the soaking for the east and into NJ. Flooding concerns are raised for WV, Far West MD, Central and East PA, and NJ with snow melt as well!

Temps will be seasonal for tomorrow with 40's and 50's, but could warm in the southern regions to 70s for Friday before being bumped back to seasonal for Saturday and Sunday.

Another soaking rain event looks LIKELY Sunday Night through Monday - We may talk severe for South VA and NC then.

Quick Note: A true Spring time severe weather outbreak will be happening in the Middle of the country tomorrow. More later on this and also a chance for snow in Los Angeles Friday for the first Time since 1976!

All for now!

Updates on Thursday based on Noon Models

There is some uncertainty as to whether or not Maryland could see some frozen precipitation out of the system based on the Global Forecast (GFS) Model. This looks like a cold rain event, maybe colder than what the forecast is now, but rain looks dominant. In PA there will be some mixed and snow again to contend with and on east into NJ.

We COULD see some thunderstorms with the system early next week and some serious rains.

More to come!

Not as much snow as thought for some - cold and then rain and seasonal!

Well, after debating for days as to the amount of snow or would it be cold enough in some regions, the questions were answered! Not much snow in Northern VA, but Maryland and southern PA ended up with a nice amount - My map from yesterday should have had some shifts north, some staying the same, and totals a bit lower from the higher end. All in all, I busted about 1 - 2 inches south and maybe 1 - 2 inches north.

Today we will clear and see temps cold in the 30's north to around 50 in the south. I lost the highlights of how warm it was southern regions where highs soared to the 70's yesterday.

Cool/cold temps will continue tomorrow as temps will warm a bit to low and mid 50s south and lower 40's north.

Thursday we will see temps a bit warmer still with highs in the 40s and 50s with some 60s in South VA and NC. Rain chances will also increase and be welcome in the region as brush fires and dry weather have been issues for the last week and a half. No frozen precipitation looks to fall from this round except for the north half of NJ and North half of PA.

We will look to yet another chance of rain Sunday into Monday. That one will have a variety of weather from about the PA/MD border northward.


Of note the other interesting part of what we will see is a chance for Severe weather in the middle part of he nation. SPC is outlining slight risk. This will become more common as the air masses collide in the middle part of the country!


http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?forecast=convmap&config=swo&type=swo&day=3&usemap=

Remember you can find me on mobile now at http://mawx.us

All for now!

OOPS! Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania place to be!

Sorry!

I am in Sterling and sleet has been the deal. A dry slot now and one more batch of precip - My snow map from earlier is looking pretty good so I am glad I did not update it.

We appears to have a few hours left of mix or snow.

Be careful - very slick!

All for now!

Maryland & Southern VA appears to be the place for snow

I am in Sterling and sleet has been the deal. A dry slot now and one more batch of precip - My snow map from earlier is looking pretty good so I am glad I did not update it.

We appears to have a few hours left of mix or snow.

Be careful - very slick!

All for now!

Snow Map for Monday Night

About the best and only I can do!

Snow Alert for tomorrow night into Tuesday Morning

It is becoming more likely that sleet and snow will break out in the area tomorrow night. With such warm grounds it will take some time before the snow will accumulate. From central Maryland up to the PA Border I could see 2 to 4 inches. From Central MD south to the MD/VA 1 - 2 inches. For Northern VA along the MD border a trace to 2 inches could occur. In PA 3 to 6 inches will be common tomorrow night with even 4 - 8 inch amounts.

There is a chance things could increase. I will need to watch.

All for now.

Jimmy

Still pondering tomorrow night's snow!

Mixed up on where and how much!

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Snow chances decreasing for Monday night

More likely snow will be heaviest near the MD/PA border. Still needs
watching. Will update mid afternoon!

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Video Forecast Discussion February 19, 2011

Update on Wind and Snow threats!

The Wind is the first and BIG deal. You add the winds with really dry air and we have a tender box out there! Please do not be stupid with cigarettes or anything that may be hot and could cause a fire. Winds are already gusting into the 40s in Northern VA and will pick up tomorrow. Winds could exceed 60 mph at times. Power outages likely.

Snow threat Monday Night into Tuesday Preliminary thoughts! Base on my read of the models
PA is most suited for a snow at this point into NJ, and north - 3 to 6 inches.
MD Divided at this point. Could see 1 - 5 inches except lower southern and Western MD will do well with 4 to 8.
VA - CLOSE call on this. Areas North of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville could see some snow.
VA - Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, DC - Expecting 1 - 2 inches possibly.

This could be very interesting with another hard hitting quick amount of snow.

More thoughts tomorrow!



Stay safe with all that wind!

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Very Warm, almost Record! Cooler air coming! Snow?

I am waking up to low and mid 50s today which would have been a nice high temperature a few weeks ago! Temps should soar into the 70s today with some approaching 80, especially Southern VA and NC. Breezy conditions will begin as well later today and the fire danger is likely to increase. Temps will be much cooler with 50s north. Southern regions appear to hang on to mid and upper 60s until Tuesday when highs will be mainly 40s to low 50s at best. The northern region (Northern VA, MD) will see highs mainly in the 40s to low 50s at best. Sunday, 40s Monday, and, potentially 30's Tuesday.

What about the "storm" possibilities next week? I am less enthusiastic after some later runs of the models so I suspect a cold rain Monday Night into Tuesday that may end with some snow in the North. The models this morning have pushed the low southward and that may mean colder temps than what I have now for areas further south. I will likely send a quick early afternoon update on this.

All for now!

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Very mild but very windy! Fire danger is high!

Today we will see strong winds and dry conditions which makes the fire
danger very high. Highs will likely hit upper 50s to Mid 60s area
wide. Tonight winds will slowly subside and temps will cool to the 20s
and mid 30s. Tomorrow will be much cooler with highs in the mid 40s to
mid 50s. Highs will bounce back Wednesday with highs in the 50s and
low 60s again and then a real warm up with mid 60s to mid 70s Thursday
and Friday!!

Mild upper 50s to mid 60s holds on for Saturday but another colder
shot hit Sunday with highs mainly in the low 40s to around 50 range.
Showers may enter the forecast Sunday.

Of note, the fire danger will remain high all week! Please be careful!

All for now

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Getting Milder!

Today we should see highs in the 50s north and 60s south! Tomorrow, mid 50s to even some folks approaching 70 degrees seems possible! No signs of rain, and the drier conditions are raising fire issues, so please be careful!

Tuesday we will cool for a day, but then 50's and 60's raising to the 70s by Friday!

All for now!

The Warming trend begins| Is Winter Over? Take my Survey!

To start off we must get excited about the weather as it is going to get much milder this week. Temps will be in the 40s for the most part today, but 50s in VA and 60s in NC. The 50s and 60s will spread northward tomorrow! Then 50s and 60s will dominate the weather through Wednesday. After this, I will have to watch, but temps in the 60s and 70s could be common next Thursday and Friday!

So is winter over? In some respects it may be! A change in the weather pattern looks to be fairly permanent at this time. I will keep watching but I suspect we will see a return to some colder air early March. This may not matter! Snow chances are not likely to return but *COULD* at that time. I am very doubtful at this point!

So what should Mid Atlantic Weather have on it? What can be removed? Let me know in my new Survey!

http://polldaddy.com/s/9C720BA41D640959

Thanks!

Cold is about to retreat! Snow in the south!

I do not want to underplay the system in the south, Snow is coming down hard in Oklahoma an North Texas with very cold temps and snow ratios as high as 30:1. It is so rare! that storm comes east and dies out but restrengthens along the NC coast. NC &SC could see 1 - 3 inches in the west part of the state with as much as 2 to 4 inches in the far east along the Outer Banks! It is cold and will be that way until Friday. Then we start to mild up with highs 50's to near 60 Sunday and upper 50s to mid 60s by Tuesday, And check out the long rang! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?config=&forecast=pass&pass=olcontour&period=610&what=temps - Much above temps where they have below zero readings today! To say we are seeing a weather pattern change would be no understatement!

All for now!

Cold winds. Cold will move out

Cold air on gusty winds will great you today. But check out the
extended forecast and you will see milder air by Sunday. Not much time
to post, more later!

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Little rain/Colder air on the way/Mild longer term!

So we will enjoy another day of milder air with temps about 5 degrees
above normal, and rain showers later today, possibly changing to snow
showers north tonight. Tomorrow we will see much colder temps about 10
to 15 degrees below normal with 30s. Temps will stay cold Wednesday. A
Southern system will produce some snow for western NC, western SC, and
NE GA. That system looks to pass off the coast and out to sea. There
were some indications it may become a big system and make it snow for
most of the region. That is not in play anymore. Friday should
continue the colder temps but signs are there that starting next
Saturday and especially Sunday and Monday a much milder pattern will
take hold. Temps could be 50s to 60s for several days.

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Chance of rain tomorrow evening -cold week - milder by next Sunday!

A lot to watch for the Thursday time frame, but it looks like snow chances are starting to diminish for the north and be light for the south.

We will see some rain tomorrow evening and that will issue in some colder air for the rest of the week. The pattern will change by next Saturday and warmer air, with sustained 50s and 60s look possible the following week. Until then we will watch this week and see what happens with the southern storm system.

All for now!

Updates: Rain - cool - snow - SNOW - COLD?!

Been absolutely busy at work and home.

Quick notes -

Mainly a RAIN event tomorrow night and Saturday.

Sorry for the silence!, work has been insane!

There MAY be some snow mix Monday Night/Tuesday

There could be a MONSTER STORM next week!

All fun to watch.

As of now, next weekend could be brutally cold as well!

I will do a more thorough look tomorrow!

All for now!

Jimmy

Freezing and rain and drizzle|Steadier rain tonight|Weekend Snow?

A lot of areas experiencing very light drizzle that is coating cars and parking lots. Be careful. Roads are OK but elevated sloped surfaces are slick! This drizzly icy condition will last until later this morning, Temps will climb to at or above freezing except in valleys and further north along the PA/MD border and western MD.

Tonight is a bit tricky. Far Northwest VA, Western and Northern MD will have a chance to accumulate up to a quarter or an inch of ice. It will depend on geography and just how strong the push of warmer air is. Many of these areas are under a Winter Storm watch because of this. Up into NJ and PA a more prolonged ice and snow event has got them at Warning levels already, Please stay alert up that way.

Areas in VA and much of NC should hit the mid and upper 60s tomorrow where the southern Winds come and erode the cold out. A chance of thunderstorms, even some strong down in Southeastern VA and NC. Northern VA could also see some thunderstorms tomorrow as temps will climb to 50 or above in spots seeing ice this morning!

Temperatures will cool but not go as cold as they have as we head towards the weekend. Ironically, the arctic chill that looked to visit us by the weekend has really changed trajectory and temps will not be as cold as originally thought. That will lead to an interesting and challenging forecast for Saturday as NW VA and Western MD as well as northward could see snow from a coastal system. Temperatures will be marginal so it will be hard to pinpoint snow vs. rain.

Longer term the pattern has and is shifting. The very cold conditions will be more centered to the Mid-west where snow will be quite the threat again in a week. We will be on the warm side of these systems. Long term, this milder pattern looks to hold.

All for now!

My thoughts on meaningful weather in the region