Cold Spring, some snow, and for the weekend, I do not know!

First off, we are officially in Spring! Days are longer than night and we will warm up! When? Well the pattern is not looking that warm! We have at least 2 more weeks of a pattern that would favor colder than normal. On forecast models t has been noted that some signals are very extreme hitting at a major east cost low and possibly a heavy snow event even in more southern reaches. The models have disagreed on the exact scenario and set up. As of this morning, the system that could bring the precipitation does not look well organized in the Mid Atlantic, but could really get New England even more snow. Even more? Well they went from struggling with snow at the beginning of the season, to many places getting into the top 10 snowiest winters! So while we continue in the second year of snow drought in places in VA, DC, and MD (realize many places in the region have seen substantial snows) they are under a surplus!

Weather for the area: Today we will see much colder temps with highs in the 40s and low 50s. The breezes will not be nearly as strong, but will make it feel colder. A disturbance tonight could be interesting as it could cause some snow showers from GA all the way into VA and MD. This could be isolated showers that could be quite squally and be somewhat heavy briefly!

So that system will usher in a very cold air mass! Highs tomorrow with many highs in the 30s and lower 40s! That is impressive and 15 to 20 degrees below normal! Flurries could also accompany the breezy cold air!

Temps rebound to the 40s and low 50s through Saturday and then we will see what happens Sunday - Tuesday when we could see some kind of storm.

This time of year is hard to forecast, but I will tell ya, the models this year have done horrible! I mean, we know when it will be possibly bad weather, but amounts and what types of weather are tough! That being said, we get more and more picky on the details. When you think of what is trying to be forecasted and the amount of technology behind it, it is impressive. In the US, more money could be used on model upgrades, but we have other pressing items to attend to (and I want to make a snide political comment here!). The real fault of the US forecast industry is favoring the US model when we have other tools superior to it! Why not embrace the reality that the European model is better and use it!

All for now!

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Colder weather to greet spring - A little snow and a lot of I don't know!

First off, we are officially in Spring! Days are longer than night and we will warm up! When? Well the pattern is not looking that warm! We have at least 2 more weeks of a pattern that would favor colder than normal. On forecast models t has been noted that some signals are very extreme hitting at a major east cost low and possibly a heavy snow event even in more southern reaches. The models have disagreed on the exact scenario and set up. As of this morning, the system that could bring the precipitation does not look well organized in the Mid Atlantic, but could really get New England even more snow. Even more? Well they went from struggling with snow at the beginning of the season, to many places getting into the top 10 snowiest winters! So while we continue in the second year of snow drought in places in VA, DC, and MD (realize many places in the region have seen substantial snows) they are under a surplus!

Weather for the area: Today we will see much colder temps with highs in the 40s and low 50s. The breezes will not be nearly as strong, but will make it feel colder. A disturbance tonight could be interesting as it could cause some snow showers from GA all the way into VA and MD. This could be isolated showers that could be quite squally and be somewhat heavy briefly!

So that system will usher in a very cold air mass! Highs tomorrow with many highs in the 30s and lower 40s! That is impressive and 15 to 20 degrees below normal! Flurries could also accompany the breezy cold air!

Temps rebound to the 40s and low 50s through Saturday and then we will see what happens Sunday - Tuesday when we could see some kind of storm.

This time of year is hard to forecast, but I will tell ya, the models this year have done horrible! I mean, we know when it will be possibly bad weather, but amounts and what types of weather are tough! That being said, we get more and more picky on the details. When you think of what is trying to be forecasted and the amount of technology behind it, it is impressive. In the US, more money could be used on model upgrades, but we have other pressing items to attend to (and I want to make a snide political comment here!). The real fault of the US forecast industry is favoring the US model when we have other tools superior to it! Why not embrace the reality that the European model is better and use it!

All for now!

Like me on Facebook @ http://facebook.com/midatlanticweather
Follow me on twitter @ http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx

Facebook Page been busy

Folks, I have been doing most my updating on Facebook. I will merge all the data here soon and this will be where you can get all the updates.

for now, check http://www.facebook.com/midatlanticweather

Thanks!

Jimmy

Cold tody! Snow hopes still dwindling! Spring? When will it arrive

Well, today it is downright freezing with the wind and the temps in the 30s, Snow yesterday made it to the coast of even South Carolina! Just a crazy year for the south and snow. The north did well on the Blizzard and are getting a sizable system today, All in all, the middle of the Mid Atlantic has had the worst when it comes to snow starvation. What made it worse was models that constantly teased that the future would hold a better pattern and snow was very likely in that pattern. No luck! So we may have to wait another 7 months before snow hopes really return. I am not discounting the snow this coming Friday that MAY fall and cause some nuisance, but it does not look like a snow storm.

In the long range near normal temps will come with quick cool downs after storms. In the long range there are signs of a serious storm that could cause heavy rains again for the region.

This week - looks colder than normal. A chance of Rain Tuesday and then a wintry mix possible for the immediate Piedmont areas and the mountains Friday into Saturday. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s starting tomorrow and then 30s again for the colder valleys and Mountains Friday into Saturday.

I hope I am wrong. The above is based of models and they have struggled, so maybe another system is there that I am not seeing!

All for now!

Snow for the Carolinas, Cold, snow hopes dwindle for DC area

Snow is ready to fly or has already been seen in SE VA and North Carolina. Models hint at an almost convective (meaning thunderstorm like) like of snow this evening for areas as far south as South Carolina! Temperatures right above the ground look warm, so most accumulations will be on the grass. I did my final call last night here: http://midatlanticweather.com/february-16th-snow/

Next up? Cold and wind for tomorrow with temps in the 30s! Another rain chance appears in the region Tuesday and then a southern system needs watching later this week. This may not be as big a threat for snow as ice for some areas.. The system is also not as impressive as it once looked so I am not that certain there will be a big system by the time it arrives as it may be weakening! 

Seriously getting low on time for any big winter storms this year in the Central Mid Atlantic. Will keep watching.

The Web Site will continue to be transformed and hopefully have as much information as needed soon!

All for now!

Rain and snow but how much|much colder weekend

I am barely getting time this morning for an updated. The new look of the web site should be going live today. Then I will fill in all gaps. Tonight's front will bring a mix of rain and snow and then eventually some snow for parts of the region. I expect not much more than a dusting to a half inch tonight and then we look for cyclogenesis (a new low) off the SE coast. AS OF NOW, the low looks like it will cause the most precip into the eastern third of VA and Eastern NC. Snow and a mix may be the outcome. How much accumulates? Some places could see 2-3", but I would be save an say half inch to some isolated 3 inches. There MAY be even more and this system bears watching. After 50s in many locations today, tomorrow, 30s will rule and windy. 30s also Sunday.

A noon update coming.

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All for now!

Some snow some regions tonight| Cold and dry weekend! Long term snow or spring?

Not much snow to speak of tonight! We MAY get a little dusting at the end. I would be more interested in areas along and east of the bay for a burst at the end as the storm gets cranking off the coast. The system is not well organized. The air is marginally cold and would need some heavier amount to cool the air for snow. All in all, wet flakes mixed in. The mountains, on the other hand, could see 2-4" and along the MD/PA border counties I would still say 1 to isolated 3" amounts, especially Northeast Maryland and SE PA into NJ.

This weekend has turned and just looks cold and dry.

**MAYBE** one more chance around the 21st or 22nd. Spring is getting really close!

All for now!

Much cooler and windy day | Some Snow! | Cold but tranquil next week

As we wind down from an incredible weather day where winds and floods were the predominant issues, we will continue with breezy conditions and very cold air. Actually winds will be up there in gusts still possible to 50 mph or more, especially in the mountains. That could definitely topple some trees after all that rain.

 

Tonight a system will come through that should cause a period of light snow from areas from the middle part of the state north. Some folks will see a coating, mainly on the grass.

 

Tomorrow breezes continue and cold air. Highs for many will be the 20s and 30s with breezes making it feel 50 – 60 degrees colder than what we had earlier this week!

 

Saturday may also bring a period of snow showers to the region.

 

Sunday remains chilly  - and slightly below temps will remain through Tuesday. No other real chances of precipitation. Will watch for another small disturbance Monday night. Next week could be mainly dry with temps headed more towards normal. (40s)

 

All for now!

 

Frozen Precip getting here quick!

Areas in the West will see frozen Precip hit between 1 am and 3am - Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain.

Current Radar attached!

The week ahead! A roller coaster, warmth, severe, back to cold, and Snow?

Sunday: Clouding up! Cold still with highs 30s and lower 40s (colder mountains)

Sunday Night: Sleet and freezing rain is possible, especially SW VA and NW NC – this will be light for the most part – and mainly immediate piedmont areas

Monday: Freezing rain and sleet could make some morning impact along the immediate Piedmont of VA. Not a major icing based on amounts of precipitation, but you do not need much for serious issues. Some snow may be mixed and accumulate in FAR NW VA and Far Western MD – but icing there too.

Tuesday – MUCH warmer with highs getting into the 50s and even 60s in the south!

Wednesday – BALMY! 70s seem possible southern VA and NC as well as 60s north – Severe weather COULD impact the region Wednesday Night into Thursday – breezy as well

Thursday – Front will slide east and colder air will filter in! Temps in the 40s and lower 50s with some rain possible

Friday – COLDER with highs back to 30s and low 40s at best – THERE MAY be some light snow chances around this time frame as well – Breezy too!

 

All for now!

 

 

Adjustments to the Snow forecast coming - updates LATE tonight!

Knocking an inch off for most areas and even 2 in some places!

 

Not a wet system and the flow is not cooperating. A general trace to 3” looks the best most can do except the mountains and maybe the coast if the coastal gets involved.

 

System just cannot get juiced up in a fast flat flow! Some bands will hold surprises like they did this morning!

 

More much later this evening!

Weather Outlook

Snow is winding down for the Eastern areas. Getting reports that in the heavy bands we saw 1 - 4" in spots! WOW! Shows what cold air and  little moisture can do. We will deal with these higher ratios tomorrow so that storm is looking a bit better for some. I will add my First Call to the Web Site.

Cold conditions will continue through Sunday, but a warm front will pop temps back above normal next week! Monday - Wednesday we could see some rain! Temps will be 40s Monday, 50s and 60s possible Tuesday through Thursday!

Temps will cool again towards next weekend and we will watch as there are hints of some interesting winter weather chances around that time!

All for now!

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Little snow tonight could make commute poor!!

With the extremely cold roads and a little moisture some snow flurries/showers are likely tonight. This small amount of snow may not mean much, but the roads could get some slick spots as the snow will NOT melt, even with salt on roads! You should plan on getting up early tomorrow and getting a head start, or see if things are bad and maybe head in later to work.

 

These small amounts of snow can sometimes be the worst types of snow as the accumulations make it very slippery but all work and school is scheduled as normal!

 

Jimmy

 

Quick Updates|Cold Week|Winter weather

Enjoy today as the warmest it will be this week

Arctic front with cold and snow showers tomorrow - Temps will fall through the day

SUPER cold Tuesday! Highs in the 20s and wind chills teens or colder all day.

Cold conditions continue, but Friday looks like  mess and not all snow! Snow to rain and freezing rain to all rain based on current models.

Colder air seems to come back in after the system to make sure we feel winter.

Hints at a bigger winter system the following week.

All for now!

Models have pushed Totals AWAY from Northern VA

Final CALL – Range is 1” either side of the below (so 2” is a range of 1 -3”)

For DC area 1 -2” and mainly southern Suburbs

Fredericksburg/Stafford – 5”

Richmond – 6”

Caroline County – 7”

Charlottesville – 10”

Lynchburg – 12”

Roanoke – 12”

Martinsburg – 12”

Asheville – 13”

Raleigh – 2”

Norfolk – 2”

La Plata – 3

Farmville – 6”

Wytheville – 13”

 

Hope that gets you the sense of what I see.

 

I would have drawn a map if I had time. I just do not!

 

More in the morning!

 

 

Rundown on amounts - Final Call LATE

Quick rundown based on what I see -

Charlottesville - 9-12"

Roanoke - 8- 12"

Lynchburg - 8-12”

DC proper – 2 -3"

Dulles – 1-3"

Stafford - 5"

Richmond - 5"

Fredericksburg - 7"

Caroline County - 6"

SW VA MTs - 12 - 14

Western NC MTS 12"

All I have time for now!

 

Bust potential north! Lower or higher amounts possible in bands!!

Significant Snowstorm for Most of VA and Northern NC - Thursday!

Details still getting worked out. SW VA and Western NC look to top 6” of snow. Central VA could see 3 to 6” with some areas getting more. NC 2-4” looks possible in the North. The snow threat will be all the way to the coast.

 

This is more snow across the mid-section of the state system with snow way less towards Northern VA and MD.

 

Areas will see rain quickly change to snow and be heavy at times. The system will drop a lot of snow in a short period of time and Thunder snow is possible!

 

There could be some adjustment north, but the cut off between significant snow and nothing will be over a short distance.

 

All for now!