DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook!

Far Western Slopes and Western Maryland (westward facing slopes) will see Lake effect really kick in tomorrow night. Disappointed to say that snow hopes have pretty much disappeared! Climatologically speaking pattern is now showing no chances of a snowstorm through the 20^th. I apologize for the hype for nothing. As a matter of fact, I really feel I have been excited by models, but my original winter forecast keeps holding true to form! There are hints of a clipper or southern storm around the 20^th, but doubt much will occur except reinforcing cold!

 

Summary:

 The cold is being ushered in and a clipper front will come through tomorrow night increasing winds and plunging true Arctic air into the area. The Lake Effect snows will affect western facing mountains. There is a SLIGHT chance for a flurry east of eth mountain as the front ushers in the cold air. Dry and cool air will be the rule for a while!

 

Today: SW: 50-55 SE: 50-55 N: 48-55 (Mountains will be 10-15 degrees cooler)

Increasing cloudiness. Breezy late afternoon and overnight. Western Facing mountains will see snow showers and potential for significant lake effect snows.

 

 

Monday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50 Temps will be dropping!

Partly to mostly cloudy, windy, and much cooler. Highs will struggle out of the 40Â’s, and 30Â’s in the mountains. Lake effect still occurring.

 

Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45

Very cold nights and very cool day.

 

Wednesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45

Very cold nights and very cool day.

 

Long Term:

Seasonally cold with temperatures in the 40s in many areas with some 50s in the south. Climatalogical conditions have set up that do not favor winter storms! Again, I apologize! Very long term does show some potential changes in this after the 20^th.

 

All for now!

 

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12/10 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Far Southeastern areas could see some isolated severe today. Later this afternoon/evening there could be isolated thunder as well. Windy day Saturday temps cool. Alberta clipper front comes through Monday and turns us much colder. Late week storm still a threat, but some things on the models make me wonder if it will be delayed and be a bigger storm a few days later! Details will slowly come into shape.

Summary:

Strong storms overnight in southern Virginia overnight. A very strong front to cross the area. Morning fog and drizzle could break up setting the stage for scattered showers and possible thunder. A good cold air damming episode was going on overnight. Check this graphic http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-328-1102652701.gif

Still on target for big cool down next week. SW US low during next week may get held up and not drop into the eastern trough right away. If this happens we will have to wait for it to release for a winter storm. I will watch and comment as needed!

Today: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 50-60

Drizzle and fog especially in the morning, thunderstorms possible. Strong storms will be isolated.

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Windy. Could see western mountain snow showers. Partly cloudy skies as the day wears on.

Sunday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Best day of the weekend with partly Sunny Skies.

Monday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Partly to mostly cloudy, windy, and much cooler. Highs will struggle out of the 40Â’s, and 30Â’s in the mountains. Lake effect will turn on Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45

Very cold nights and very cool day.

Wednesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45

Very cold nights and very cool day.

Long Term:

Seasonally cold with temperatures in the 30s and 40s in many areas with some 50s in the south at times. A winter storm COULD (that is a change) threaten the area next Thursday/Friday timeframe. More cold air appears to invade after this as well as a cold pattern sets up and potentially more snow in the weeks to come! (Next chance could be around the 20^th!)

All for now!

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12/9 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Rain Rapidly advances into the region today. Rain will be on and off Friday. Cooler conditions this week. A cold front moves through Monday and temps will be cold after it. Still looking interesting next week for the Big Snowstorm threat, but many details to fall into place before then!

 

Summary:

 This summary is still pretty much the same! The storm this weekend will be in the northeast. The southern energy will swing through Thursday night through early Saturday morning, some snow showers far western Maryland and western facing Mountains of Virginia Saturday at the highest of elevations. Lake effect will get going On Monday so Garret gets their snow! Reinforcing cold arrives Sunday into Monday and temps will be very cool to cold next week with highs upper 30s and 40s by mid week. A storm system will be getting its act together and looks like it may affect us Next Thursday or Friday and I will say this looks like the first winter storm for the area!

 

Thursday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Rain, everywhere by afternoon!

 

Friday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 50-60

Rain, especially in the morning, thunderstorms possible. Windy conditions developing and maybe more widespread rain.

 

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Windy. Could see western mountain snowshowers. Partly cloudy skies as the day wears on.

 

Sunday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Best day of the weekend with partly Sunny Skies.

 

Monday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Partly to mostly cloudy, windy, and much cooler. Highs will struggle out of the 40Â’s, and 30Â’s in the mountains. Lake effect will turn on Monday into Monday night.

 

Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45

Very cold nights and very cool day.

 

Long Term:

This stays the same for now! Seasonally cold with temperatures in the 30s and 40s in many areas with some low 50s in the south at times. A winter storm will likely threaten the area next Thursday/Friday timeframe. More cold air appears to invade after this as well as a cold pattern sets up and potentially more snow in the weeks to come!

 

All for now!

 

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12/08 VA/MD/DC Weather Outlook

HEAVY WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT VERY MILD DAY ON TAP. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RAIN AND SHOWERS, AGAIN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE THUNDER. TRANSITION WEEKEND IS HERE, AND THIS TIME FOR REAL AS TEMPS WILL STEP DOWN DAY BY DAY. BIG WINTER STORM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS A STORMY AND COLD PATTERN APPEARS TO COMMENCE!

Summary:

The storm this weekend will be in the northeast. The southern energy will swing through Thursday night through early Saturday morning, some snow showers far western Maryland and western facing Mountains of Virginia (Lake effect will get going so Garret gets their snow!) Reinforcing cold arrives Sunday into Monday and temps will be very cool to cold next week with highs upper 30s and 40s by mid week. A storm system will be getting its act together and looks like it may affect us Next Thursday or Friday and I will say this looks like the first winter storm for the area!

Today: SW: 64-74 SE: 64-74 N: 55-65

Very windy especially early. Nice temperatures

Thursday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 55-65

Southern areas could see rain by the end of the day. Northern areas will see increasing clouds.

Friday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 50-60

Rain, especially in the morning, thunderstorms possible. Windy conditions developing and maybe more widespread rain.

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Windy. Could see western mountain snowshowers early in the morning, but partly cloudy skies as the day wears on.

Sunday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Windy conditions developing. Could see western mountain snowshowers. Lake effect will turn on Sunday night.

Long Term:

Seasonally cold with temperatures in the 30s and 40s in many areas with some low 50s in the south at times. A winter storm will likely threaten the area next Thursday/Friday timeframe. More cold air appears to invade after this as well as a cold pattern sets up and potentially more snow in the weeks to come!

All for now!

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12/07 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

IT TOOK SOME TIME, BUT HERE COMES WINTER! UNLIKE THE LAST CALL THIS ONE HAS SOME STICKING POWER! A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. A STORM WILL FORM CLOSE TO OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE MOST LIKELY AFFECT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AND MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A TURN TO SNOW.. MAYBE EVEN FURTHER EAST? IT IS WORTH WATCHING! BUT FIRST UP, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY STRIKE TOMORROW AS RAIN OVERSPREAS THE REGION. MIXING OF VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE WOULD BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. AREAS FROM THE BLUE RISGE WEST MAY REALLY GUST, AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR FAR WESTERN MARYLAND. A SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY AND FRONT COMES THROUGH. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND WILL HELP ENERGIZE A STRONG NOREASTER.

 

Summary:

I kind of already summarized. I am expecting a windy day tomorrow with showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially western areas. Very mild day. Wednesday a day of partly cloudy and mild conditions and then a southern stream system will ride through the area, especially southern areas. A front will come through and energy will energize the storm. There will be colder air will get involved, but probably at the end of the storm. Areas west of the mountains will see snow showers. We will see a milder couple of days, but pretty much seasonal. Could see another storm that will need to be watched next week.

 

Today: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Periods of rain. Chance of some clearing and then possible thunderstorms. Winds could be gusty, some isolated storms may be severe.

 

Wednesdayy: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Partly cloudy day.

 

Thursday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 55-65

Southern areas will see rain. Northern areas may see just partly cloudy skies.

 

Friday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 50-60

Rain, especially in the morning. Windy conditions developing and maybe more widespread rain. Temp forecast will be a challenge.

 

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Windy. Could see western mountain snowshowers. Still some uncertainty in the forecast so stay tuned!

 

Long Term:

Seasonally cold with a chance of another storm that may be wintry!

 

All for now!

 

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Strong Storms possible today

There is a slight chance for isolated strong storms today. Also strong gusty winds. Please stay alert to weather outlets for Watches and /or warnings.

 

All for now!

 

Please check out http://www.midatlanticweather.com if you have not visited recently! Many changes have occurred and more to come!

 

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12/04 DC/MD/VA Weather outlook

RAIN MAY INCLUDE THUNDER ON TUESDAY AS VERY MILD AIR GETS INVOLVED IN THE FORECAST. AS I NOTED YESTERDAY, THE PACIFC NW AND WESTERN CANADA LOW WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER AND THERE ARE SIGNS IT COULD BE WINTRY! IT JUST MAY BE THE PLAYER TO TURN OUR WINTER COLDER TOO!

 

Summary:

I re read my post for yesterday and I apologize for the jumbled sentences. I think it was too late to post! Anyways, the low I was speaking of is an important player. It will briefly switch the west coast trough into a ridge, and then, how it plays out exactly will be interesting to watch. There is the “threat” of an east coast storm sometime next weekend timeframe and cold air could easily get involved. I am basing these thoughts on a very good (and blunt) analysis by Dave Toleris (DT) of WxRisk who has had great forecasting skill in the past. Another forecaster, Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather, has been mentioning and east coast snow threat for days now. Joe and DT do not usually see eye to eye and DT tends to discount a lot of what Joe speaks of. So, interestingly enough, we have a bit of consensus among some forecasters! Now, the American model (called the GFS) is not showing what the European model (ECMWF) is showing with the trough in the east. This is primarily based on the handling of that Mega Low off the Pacific NW/Canada coast. The GFS brings it onshore, which would in turn build the Ridge off the Southeast coast and flood mild air into the country which would stop any ideas of colder air. So, I will watch and see where we go!

 

Today: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 40-50

Partly cloudy.

 

Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Nice sunny day.

 

Monday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Increasing clouds with some rain likely in the west spreading north and east over time. Thunderstorms also possible, especially overnight!

 

Tuesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Showers.

 

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Sunny

 

Thursday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Sunny

 

Friday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Chance of rain showers. Could trigger a very cool weekend and this will all need to be watched based on the above discussions!

 

Long Term:

Hard to say as there could be a pattern changed prompted by a strong storm off the east coast. All speculation now, but definitely things there that need to be watched!

 

All for now!

 

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12/03 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook!

DISREGARD THE SNOWFLAKES AND ANY THOUGHTS OF A SNOWSTORM NEXT WEEK! INTERESTING PATTERN CHANGES COULD OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS. I WILL DISCUSS, BUT DO NOT KNOW THE IMPLICATIONS IN THE LONGER TERM. IN GENERAL, THE WEATHER REMAINS SIMILAR, BUT SIGNS FOR SOME DIFFERENT WEATHER IS THERE.

 

Summary:

A very large area of low pressure is probably headed for the Pacific NW and Western Canada. This is going to do some adjustments, to the weather, which will not initially favor colder air (maybe other than briefly) in our . Longer term I see that this could bring some changes to the pattern that may unleash colder air. First things first.. a strong low crashing into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest favors will cause the ridge off the east coast to build which should cause milder and above normal temperatures. I will watch to see if the models verify. Meanwhile, the flakes disappeared from our forecast (I am sorry I even mentioned them as I doubted their possibility). One note.. this storm could do one of two things in my mindset. One, It may cause some shifts in the warm/cold water situation of the Pacific NW coast. It could steer it closer to the coast or it may actually cool the waters with upwelling which will mean more of the same pattern. We will see!

 

Today: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Partly cloudy day with breezy conditions

 

Saturday: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 40-50

Partly cloudy day

 

Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Nice sunny day.

 

Monday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Increasing clouds with some rain likely in the west spreading north over time.

 

Tuesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Showers.

 

Long Term:

More rain possible next Thursday. I will continue to watch what affects the Pacific NW Low will do to us!

 

All for now!

 

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12/02 VA/MD/DC Weather Oulook!

THERE ARE FLAKES IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTHE AND FAR WESTERN RIDGES, BUT, FLURRIES AT BEST! THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A BIG STORM NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING SNOW, I DO NOT FEEL CONVINCED OF THIS, BUT WILL WATCH.

 

Summary:

After a very windy day, will see temps as much as 5 degrees below normal. A small disturbance will move through Friday night and could kick off some snow and rain showers. There is another nice sized storm slated for early next week and then, well, we will watch and see if this storm can kick down colder aire for a possible second system next Friday. Not really convinced of anything, but worth watching!

 

Today: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Nice day with less winds

 

Friday: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Increasing clouds late in the day. Some showers or even snow showers in the Mountains and far north.

 

Saturday: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 40-50

After a few morning rain or snow showers in the north. Decreasing clouds later in the day and breezy.

 

Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Nice sunny day.

 

Monday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Increasing clouds with some rain likely in the west spreading north over time.

 

Long Term:

More rain Tuesday and a possible cooling trend. Will watch the end of next week for conclusions on southern stream.

 

All for now!

 

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12/1 DC/MD/VA Brief Weather Outlook!

LITTLE TO NO TIME TO POST THIS MORNING. MAYBE A MID DAY UPDATE! RAIN WILL END AND WE WILL GET SERIOUS WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NWS HAS POSTED A WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 50 MPH. Summary: Meteorological winter begins today! A strong low pressure system will continue to deepen and move northward, as the front pushes through this morning rains will come to an end and the back side will usher in colder temperatures (temps should fall this afternoon) and very strong winds. Temps in the 50s and 60s will fall to the 40s and 50s. As I said, all for now. Just a note, the locked pattern of normal to above normal temps, followed by a strong storm, a cool day or so, and then back to normal or above temps seems locked for the next 2 weeks! This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others! http://www.acleanercarpetco.com/ (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

11/30 BRIEF! DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook!

THIS IS A QUICK UPDATE AS TIME HAS NOT ALLOWED ME TO UPDATE! RAIN WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY HEAVY. COOLER TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN WE WARM. PATTERN TO HOLD SO MY COLD AND MIX TYPE SCENARIO IS OUT! REAL CHILL THOUGHTS, ERASED FROM MY THINKING UNTIL MAYBE 2 WEEKS OR MORE FOR NOW! SO SORRY TO ALL!

 

Summary:

Negative NAO and Positive PNA pattern not likely to develop. Pattern looks locked for a while yet, and, even though there will be some chance of western (west of Blue Ridge) upslope snows Thursday, not really counting on cold to stick, but normal pattern in temps. This hangs well with my winter forecast, but totally changes what I thought would have occurred by now! Sorry to all!

 

More to come, with more time!

 

All for now!

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11/26 VA/MD/DC Weather Outlook

THE COLDER AIR BLEW IN YESTERDAY. LOOKS SHORT LIVED AS WE HEAD FOR SEASONAL TEMPS. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT, A FEW DAYS OF DRY, THEN WE COULD SEE THE FIRST REAL THREAT OF A MIX IN THE NORTH AT THE START OF ANOTHER STORM. PATTERN DOES FAVOR COOL TO COLD, AND THERE WILL BE SYSTEMS TO WATCH, BUT NOTHING TOO MUCH OUT OF THE ORDINARY!

 

Summary:

Added a new family member on Monday so life has been crazy! Things panned out somewhat as I had thought this week on my forecast, but cold air damming held temps down Monday through the end of the day Wednesday. The temps fell sharply yesterday afternoon and we are in a very cold air mass today. The flow starts southerly tomorrow which will rebound our temperatures. A front comes through tomorrow night into Sunday AM and rain is possible. Sunday will see very seasonal temperatures. Next week the nation is under the influence of two important Winter Features! A Negative NAO and a positive PNA pattern. There is one other important feature that will form, the Hudson Bay Polar vortex. This tells me few things! One, if colder air can, it may spill down the eastern seaboard with a cold air damming event that may have polar air involved! Next, the Cold air will have a harder time leaving due to some blocking caused by the negative NAO and potentially sharper troughing (more energetic and heavier precip) from a positive PNA. That being said, nothing is strong, so I do not foresee, at this time, a significant winter event, but there is some potential for at least a mix of sleet and freezing rain. I will watch!

 

 

Today: Temps: SW: 50-60 SE: 53-64 N: 45-55

Cool and plenty of Sunshine!

 

Saturday: Temps: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Increasing clouds. Slight chance of rain, especially west, late in the day

 

Sunday: Temps: SW: 60-68 SE: 60-68 N: 55-65

Increasing sunshine with temps near Normal!

 

Monday: Temps: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-63

Sunny, highs pretty close to normal!!

 

Tuesday: Temps: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Based on current models! Increasing clouds with a chance of rain. If we have more Cold Air Damming in place, and I am sure we will, we will need to watch what trends occur with temps.

 

Longer Term:

I am lumping the long term together! I see the chance for much cooler weather with the Negative NAO and positive PNA pattern, but right now, I think just 5-8 degrees below normal is possible after another front next Thursday.

 

All for now!

 

 

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11/20 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

7 Day Outlook: ( see summary Below)

Sunday:

Temps: SW: 60-70 N: 55-65 SE: 60-70 Some clearing, but still mostly cloudy. Some chances of rain possible in the far Southwest.

Monday:

Temps: SW: 65-75 N: 55-65 SE: 60-70 Fog burning off, rain coming to an end in far south. Partly cloudy day

Tuesday:

Temps: SW: 55-65 N: 50-60 SE: 55-60 Increasing Chances of rain from Southwest to Northeast. Heavy at times Tuesday night

Wednesday:

Temps: SW: 60 -70 N: 55-65 SE: 60-70 Rain, heavy at times, especially early and in any convection. Cold wedge east of mountains may keep some areas cool. Southeastern areas could see some Thunder later in the day

Thursday:

Temps: SW: 50-60 N: 50-60 SE: 50-60 Blustery! Temps could fall during the day. Upslope areas of western Ridges could see snow showers Thursday Night.

Friday:

Temps: SW: 46-58 N:45-55 SE: 50-60 Colder conditions. Sunny skies

Saturday:

Temps: SW: 54-60 N: 50-60 SE: 55-65 Front Approaches region. Looking fairly dry. Temps close to normal.

Sunday:

Temps: SW: 55-65 N: 50-60 SE: 55-65 Sunny. Temps still seasonal.

 

Summary:

I am trying something new with the forecast chart here! Concern will be the ability to maintain it! Weekend of a slow warm front, a disturbance on that front, and not a lot of push in the atmosphere to clear things out has made it a dreary one! Tomorrow may be somewhat better. The week will be highlighted by a fairly vigorous storm system and cold front that will drop temps back below normal for a few days. The big chill down seems only delayed and not gone as most of the nation takes a more wintry look to it after the passage of this big system!

 

NOW.. based on the many things occurring in my family, the next time I post MAY not be until Wednesday or Thursday! There is the potential that severe weather could be around parts of the area Wednesday so please stay alert.

 

Long Term:

 I do see the turn to colder and stormy conditions, but maybe not as drastic a turn as I had thought. Still, a week after Thanksgiving we may be shivering around here at night!

 

All for now!

 

"There is always a 100% chance of weather!"

Jimmy Chaplin

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

Legal Disclaimer

The above is a derived forecast and gives MY ideas on what I think the weather will be. NEVER user this information to make life or property saving decisions.

Please rely on official weather forecasts by the National Weather Service for these types of decisions.

 

 

 

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