01/25 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Where are we headed? The pattern ahead should be somewhat challenging. I would say we are in an equal opportunity storm pattern. Storms could either be snowy or icy or rain. The split flow will be difficult for the models to handle, not that the models have been all that great. I do see more opportunities for precipitation than has been the case. With the southern branch of the jet stream pumping more sub tropical systems towards our region. I am not seeing a bitter cold sustaining outbreak, but I see the stronger signals of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. If you put this all together I think we run a higher risk of winter storms for the next few weeks. I call this season the height of our winter storm season. To me it runs from about January 15^th to about February 15^th. What I notice during this time of the year is that the Highs to the north have an interesting ability to seep more cold air into the region than early model runs indicate. This may the case this weekend as a low appears to form along the coast and possibly ride up the coast if the NAO goes and stays negative. Summary: This time of year has more wintry storms that do not look wintry on models until they get closer. Reality may be that the storms are rain. Just some thoughts

Summary: Warmer air is invading the region and will moderate temperatures today and especially tomorrow. Cannot rule out a shower of  rain or snow overnight. Nothing like yesterday's surprise snow squall! Colder air invaded Thursday and Thursday night could be one of the coldest of the season as cold air comes sliding off a New England snow pack! Interesting things could be here Sunday as "Stale" cold air and a potential southern/coastal storm appear to come this way.

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 21 members. Great observations and feedback. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45
Moderating temperatures! Cloudy skies. A brief rain or snow shower possible tonight.

Wednesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55
Above normal temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Much colder! Thursday night may be the coldest of the season.

Friday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Partly Cloudy

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40 (temps could be adjusted downwards)
Some cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain.

Monday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain.
 
Long Term:
This weekend system will need to be watched. Temps look seasonal next week.
       
All for now!

 

01/24 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

It was a big storm, but a big miss for me! I will try and recap the storm. This week we see a moderation in temperatures for a few days ABOVE NORMAL, a clipper to turn us colder and then??? Another winter storm possible this weekend!

Summary:
Very cold and windy conditions followed our "storm" which was far less than what I had advertised. Late Friday night it became apparent to me that my thoughts were likely wrong. My headline changed, but my last call map was my last call so I let it stand. I learned a lot from this event, the biggest is that the models are showing systems further south than they should. This storm rocked the Northeast. <http://news.bostonherald.com/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=64954> .

This week: We have a chance of some flurries up north today. Moderating temperatures. A clipper through Thursday. Colder temps for a day then seasonal. MAYBE a winter storm this weekend.

Thanks to all who posted to the Forum. Our community has grown to 20 members. Great observations and feedback. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. <http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/>

Forecast:

Today: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Cold, but not as cold as yesterday.  A few flurries in the northern regions not out of the question.

Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50
Moderating temperatures!

Wednesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55
Above normal temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Maybe a shower and turning colder!

Friday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Partly Cloudy

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40 (temps could be adjusted downwards)
Some cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 25-35 SE: 25-35 N: 25-35
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain..most likely changing to rain if it occurs

Long Term:
This weekend system will need to be watched. Temps look seasonal next week.
       
All for now!

1/22 Snow Alert Update

Concerns about track of low and possible sleet and Freezing rain Central regions on my forecast map.. For latest thoughts and discussion today you can visit http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/ . PLEASE add you observations and thoughts.

 

FYI.. 8:15 am and light flurries in Sterling VA

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others!
http://www.acleanercarpetco.com (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

The best telecommunication options you could ever need! http://www.tellifone.com.. yeah, I know I misspelled it!

---

Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Search presents - Jib Jab's 'Second Term'

untitled

Last Call

 

Highlighting major areas: (Think of regions around these points, not the location itself)

Hagerstown: 4-8 some 10+

Baltimore: 6-12 some 14+

Washington DC National: 5-10 some 10+

Washington DC Dulles: 4-8 some 10+

Stafford: 3-6 with icing issues

Fredericksburg: :  3-6 with icing issues

Charlottesville: 3-6 with icing issues

Richmond: 2-4 with icing concerns.

Wakefield: 1-2”

Norfolk: 1-2”. Risk of some backlash

Roanoke: 2-4 with icing concerns

Lynchburg: 3-6 with icing issues

SEE MAP: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif for my First Guess!

 

Quick updates:

 

Size of Storm: Areas in northeast could easily see a lot more if back lash from coastal gets involved. Also, adjustments could occur if system happens to dig more.

When: Saturday morning and overnight, though mostly over by midnight, except Northeast. Will be very cold and windy.

How Much: My last thoughts  http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif

 

Concerns:

1. There are models showing a very substantial event in areas I am being somewhat conservative on.
2. Location of upper features are still not totally clear, and there could be a serious dry slot limiting snow in Northwester VA! Some people may really be surprised at smaller amounts than expected!

 

All for now!

 

 

untitled

2 Systems to deal with the next Few Days! First: Snow likely TONIGHT southern half of Virginia, maybe a brief period in the north! Next, the system this weekend is going to be VERY HARD to get specific on. Every time a get a sense of what is going to happen, enough changes to mess me up.

First System:

Size: 1-2 inches not out of the question.
When: Tonight
Where: Lynchburg to Richmond to Waldorf and south have the best chance for some accumulations. Dusting possible north of here.

Second System Update:

Size: Somewhat hard to tell.
When: SATURDAY.. I forgot to say this last time.
Where? Not 100% sure.

Models continue to give mixed signals. I still say snow will fall. I am not so sure I am clear on where axis of heavier snows will line up.

 
Concerns still exist:

1.      Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today, BUT NOW is pretty unlikely. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.

2.      A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.

3.      The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!). This will have to be watched

4.      There may also be more Arctic air involved which would increase snow ratios. All that means would be more snow would accumulate from small amounts of precip.

All for now!

untitled

2 Systems to deal with the next Few Days! First: Snow likely TONIGHT southern half of Virginia, maybe a brief period in the north! Next, the system this weekend is going to be VERY HARD to get specific on. Every time a get a sense of what is going to happen, enough changes to mess me up.

First System:

Size: 1-2 inches not out of the question.
When: Tonight
Where: Lynchburg to Richmond to Waldorf and south have the best chance for some accumulations. Dusting possible north of here.

Second System Update:

Size: Somewhat hard to tell.
When: SATURDAY.. I forgot to say this last time.
Where? Not 100% sure.

Models continue to give mixed signals. I still say snow will fall. I am not so sure I am clear on where axis of heavier snows will line up.

 
Concerns still exist:

1.      Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today, BUT NOW is pretty unlikely. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.

2.      A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.

3.      The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!). This will have to be watched

4.      There may also be more Arctic air involved which would increase snow ratios. All that means would be more snow would accumulate from small amounts of precip.

All for now!

1/20 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook and Snow ALERT

I will watch for changes, but it is looking pretty certain that a significant but not historic system will affect the region.

 

Bottom line, the system that will come through does not appear to phase with other systems which had been important for a serious amount of precipitation. Without this phasing the amounts will be decent, but not historic.

 

Taking models right now (Obviously forecast will be adjusted if needed)

An area north of and including Roanoke to Richmond to Waldorf will likely see 4-8 inches with some bigger spots approaching 12 inches. Reason for some higher amounts in some areas will be the possibility of  convective banding of snow or even thundersnow! There will be mixing concerns along the coast and southern regions after an initial period of snow.  

 

Concerns:

1. Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.
2. A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.
3. The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!)

 

All for now!

 

Remember, Mid Atlantic Weather Forecasts ae not OFFICIAL forecasts and should never be used to make life saving or property saving decisions. Please cnsult with official government forecast offices or other weather outlets for these decisions!

 

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others!
http://www.acleanercarpetco.com (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

The best telecommunication options you could ever need! http://www.tellifone.com.. yeah, I know I misspelled it!

---

Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail - You care about security. So do we.

Light snow and snow showers the next 24-30 hours. Storm this weekend will be wintry, but its outcome is likely messy!

Summary:

First things first. 2 systems affect us the next 24-30 hours. The one today has more precip and with dusting already going on 1-2 inches at best, especially north of Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Dover Delaware line. Thinking now statewide a dusting to 1 inch not out of the question!

Cold conditions continue

This weekend storm holds many problems for true snow lovers. IF the models are showing what will happen the below seems to line up with their thoughts.

1. There is not a good 50/50 low. Or there is not even one. 50/50 lows are crucial for all snow events in our region. Does not mean a no snow event, just not likely an all snow event
2. The Low is strong due west of the area. This means I am pretty sure a mixing situation to rain, especially south. An Ice Storm could easily set up before the changeover to just rain, and it is possible the changeover to all rain may never come for all.
3. Northwestern Virginia and Central to western Maryland appear the best shot for significant if not major snow.
4. Northern Virginia East of I-95 will see snow.. but a mix to even rain possible for a while with a change back to snow at the end.
5. Northern Virginia west of I-95 will see Snow…a mix at the height of the storm is probable which will cut down on accumulations, but a moderate to significant event is not out of the question.
6. The Piedmont of the state could see a brief period of snow and sleet but they run a real risk of a serious ice storm before a change to all rain and then maybe back to snow north of Richmond.

Due to the event of this weekend being all I am pretty much talking about, I will not post the forecast until Maybe Sunday. Next week looks to slowly moderate with another system affecting us later in the week which also could be an event to watch!

Please join Mid Atlantic Weather forum!! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/ I want to make sure that you get your thoughts in and why you think the storm will do what it will do. I am especially interested in this weekend events and would love observation reports! Lets me know if the forecast is holding true!

All for now!

1/18 Winter Weather Updates

Storm Adjustments.

 

3 Systems will affect us! These are my thoughts

 

System One:

Size: Small clipper.

When: Tomorrow afternoon:

Where? North of a Charlottesville to Frederickburg to an Atlantic City line.

Amounts: There is possibility for as much as 1-2inches but 1 inch or less more likely. Further north you go, the higher the amounts. Western facing mountains could see 2-4 inches

 

System Two:

Size: Small clipper.

When: Thursday

Where? North of a Roanoke to Richmond to Salisbury Maryland line.

Amounts: 1 inch MAYBE, but northern areas. Western slopes of mountains 1-3 inches.

 

System Three: BIG ADJUSTMENTS! VERY PREMIMINARY THOUGHTS> ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY!

Size: Still significant, but likely not Historic

When: Saturday into Sunday

Where: A Shifting north trend through the day.

Southwest:  I see a snow sleet mix almost area wide a quick transition to rain. Western Slopes. Piedmont, potential Ice Storm after an initial burst of snow.

Southeast: Some snow/sleet mix, quickly mixing with and changing to freezing rain and sleet and then rain. Some LIGHT snow accumulations, some ice. Western Areas in piedmont have to watch for Ice Storm. A turn over to rain likely..possible ending as a quick shot of snow.

Northeast: Snow.. mixing with sleet and freezing rain. Significant snow accumulations and the significant Ice.

Northwest. Snow.. Heavy at times.. Significant to even possible major accumulations, but a mix likely to cut down on snow amounts.

 

 

 

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others!
http://www.acleanercarpetco.com (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

The best telecommunication options you could ever need! http://www.tellifone.com.. yeah, I know I misspelled it!

__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
http://mail.yahoo.com

1/18 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Wintry pattern unfolds with three possibilities of snow, one of which could be historic!

 

Summary:

This will have to be brief, and I apologize, but just not enough time to get a good forecast out. In the short run, see my Winter Weather Blog for my thoughts. Basically, a 1-3 threat exists tomorrow afternoon into night and flurries possible Friday. Northern half of the area would be affected.

 

Trends on models today have been to bring the storm this weekend further north and making it a bit more progressive. This means a few things. Southern Half of the area could easily mix and/or have ice problems. North still looks significant, but Historic may be a stretch at this point in time. Changes likely as the days progress!

 

Please join Mid Atlantic Weather forum!! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

 

Forecast:

 

Tosday: SW: 20-30 SE: 25-35 N: 17-25

Cold!

 

Wednesday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Increasing clouds. Some snow, especially north. 1-3 inches at best. Mountains 2-4.

 

Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Cloudy, flurries possible, especially north

 

Friday: SW: 25-35 SE: 30-40 N: 20-30

Partly Cloudy

 

Saturday: SW: 25-35 SE: 30-40 N: 20-30

Some cloudiness. Light snow possible late!

 

Sunday: SW: 25-35 SE: 25-35 N: 25-35

Significant Snow possible. Ice concerns for south. Coastal regions likely to mix with rain in the Southeast.

 

Long Term:

As noted, Sunday into Monday could be a big storm, but many details to work out between now and then!

                                            

All for now!

 

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others!
http://www.acleanercarpetco.com (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

The best telecommunication options you could ever need! http://www.tellifone.com.. yeah, I know I misspelled it!

---

Do you Yahoo!?
Take Yahoo! Mail with you! Get it on your mobile phone.

1/17 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

COLD and windy conditions to start our week. The Northern areas may see a bit of snow shower activity again Wednesday. My eyes are wide open for next event. Models trend Historic, but reality may be otherwise!

Summary:

Brrrr! The cold winds are upon us. Many areas dusted last night with very light snow. Today we have northerly winds and cold air! We will slightly warm up around Wednesday and then more cold air should arrive this weekend. And Then? Well, there are some good trends by long term models that I trust that say a significant storm will be affecting the area Sunday into Monday! There are even Historic precipitation outputs on one model, but there will need to be several runs showing this before I need to go crazy!

Just a reminder that I have a new Weather Forum for the region. It is not heavily used and only a few members now. I would like to see it grow and get busy during storms especially! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 25-35 SE: 25-35 N: 25-35

Cold and windy. Really cold tonight with temps flirting around 0 in the Mountains

Tueesday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Temps remain cold

Wednesday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 35-45

Increasing clouds. Some rain and snow showers possible, especially north.

Thursday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

Friday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40 (temps could be adjusted downwards)

Some cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 25-35 SE: 25-35 N: 25-35

Significant Snow possible.

Long Term:

As noted, Sunday into Monday could be a big storm, but many details to work out between now and then!

All for now!

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others! http://www.acleanercarpetco.com (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157 The best telecommunication options you could ever need! http://www.tellifone.com.. yeah, I know I misspelled it!

---

Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail - You care about security. So do we.

1/16 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

A clipper low will be coming through and could cause some light snow in the northern third of the area tonight. Currently sleet and snow and light rain are showing on Radar in Southeastern Virginia. SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND! Summary: Interesting weather day in some ways. Biggest concern is the missing of the precipitation in Southeastern Virginia (I discussed this with another person in the forum at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb yesterday!) This will need to be monitored as sleet and snow are possible there today. A clipper will be coming through this evening and quickly spread very light snow for the northern third of Virginia and Maryland. This COULD dust the area and provide as much as a 1 inch of snow near the Pennsylvania and Maryland border. We will be extremely chilly the next few days with nighttime lows possibly getting as cold as any this season! The week remains 5-10 degrees below normal with another clipper possibly affecting us Wednesday. BIGGER things could be in storm for the region next weekend. It is likely the best chance of snow this season! To describe the scenario I will defer to wxrisk as it gets very technically involved. All I want to really note is that there is a potential for a significant to major snowstorm next weekend for the region. Please stay alert! Wxrisk analysis can be found here: http://www.wxrisk.com/meteopage.html Forecast: Sunday: SW: 30-40 SE: 32-42 N: 30-40 Chances of snow in the Northern Third of the area and far Southeastern part of the state. Dusting to an inch possible north near PA border. For now, no accumulations in Southeastern VA, but conversational snow. Please stay tuned for possible adjustments. Monday: SW: 30-40 SE: 32-42 N: 30-40 Sunny. Tuesday: SW: 30-40 SE: 32-42 N: 30-40 Sunny Wednesday: SW: 30-40 SE: 32-42 N: 30-40 Chance of some showers. Some may include snow. (This system will be the key to next weekend and whether or not a big storm occurs. Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 32-42 N: 30-40 Skies will clear. Long Term: Significant snowstorm for the area possible next weekend! All for now!

1/14 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

The changes are a coming and more interesting situations in the long run!

 

Summary:

Here comes a powerful cold front and heavy rains. Some severe is possible overnight so please stay tuned to local weather and media outlets for watches and/or warnings. Temperatures will likely be at their highs after midnight and fall later in the day. The weekend cold is not as cold as I thought, but, there are signs some re-enforcements will come next week and a close call storm as well! Temperatures will really plummet after it and New England could see a Historical Storm! Long range becomes fuzzy, but colder air (seasonal to just below) will likely stick around now, with a few milder days here and there! Nothing is set in stone though so keep coming back for more updates.

 

 Just a reminder that I have a new Weather Forum for the region. It is not heavily used and only a few members now. I would like to see it grow and get busy during storms especially! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

 

Forecast:

 

Friday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 45-55 (temps falling)

Clearing turning colder as the day progresses. Very Windy!

 

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

 

Sunday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

 

Monday: SW: 38-48 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

 

Tuesday: SW: 38-48 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

 

Wednesday: SW: 38-48 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

 

Thursday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Increasing clouds. Some light snow possible in the north. A lot of questions!

Long Term:

Possible winter weather, but most likely a really cold couple of days possible.

                                            

All for now!

 

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others!
http://www.acleanercarpetco.com (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

The best telecommunication options you could ever need! http://www.tellifone.com.. yeah, I know I misspelled it!

---

Do you Yahoo!?
The all-new My Yahoo! – What will yours do?

1/14 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

The changes are a coming and more interesting situations in the long run!

Summary:

Here comes a powerful cold front and heavy rains. Some severe is possible overnight so please stay tuned to local weather and media outlets for watches and/or warnings. Temperatures will likely be at their highs after midnight and fall later in the day. The weekend cold is not as cold as I thought, but, there are signs some re-enforcements will come next week and a close call storm as well! Temperatures will really plummet after it and New England could see a Historical storm! Long range becomes fuzzy, but colder air (seasonal to just below) will likely stick around now, with a few milder days here and there! Nothing is set in stone though so keep coming back for more updates.

Just a reminder that I have a new Weather Forum for the region. It is not heavily used and only a few members now. I would like to see it grow and get busy during storms especially! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Friday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 45-55 (temps falling)

Clearing turning colder as the day progresses. Very Windy!

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

Sunday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

Monday: SW: 38-48 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

Tuesday: SW: 38-48 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

Wednesday: SW: 38-48 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

Thursday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Increasing clouds. Some light snow possible in the north. A lot of questions!

Long Term:

Possible winter weather, but most likely a really cold couple of days possible.

All for now!