Mid Atlantic Weather Discussions

Saturday, November 26, 2005

11/26 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Cold weather is on the retreat for us. Though I had some hope presented by models of its sticking capabilities, the weather pattern did as I expected in my winter outlook! With developments in the Sea Surface Temperatures, I think the winter outlook will continue to come true! We have some rain Monday through Wednesday and mild temperatures. Some signs of colder weather for this next weekend. Again, will it stick?

Summary: Progressive pattern means, when we get cold, we cannot stay cold.. but also, when we get warmer, we cannot stay warmer! And this week gives us just that scenario! We start off today really cold, and yet will warm up 10 degrees from yesterday (still very cool) and then tomorrow about 10 more degrees and then, Monday 10 to 15 degrees! Monday may have places flirting with 70 in the south! We also introduce showers into the forecast and could have some ok rains in the west… There goes the snow pack. But there are now signs of another cold snap next weekend. Timing of features related to the colder air will be a bit difficult, but this looks like a New England snow. There are thoughts that maybe a blocking pattern will show up this coming weekend. We will see.

Tropics: Delta is slowly falling apart.

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community has grown to 30 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

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Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Wednesday, November 23, 2005

11/23/2005 Snowshowers in the Forecast

Some Snowshowers Possible overnight!

I understand there were snow showers around yesterday evening for people east of the mountains, well it appears this possibility is becoming more likely overnight tonight. It appears that a clipper system (quick moving storms from Canada) will quickly overtake the area this evening and areas west of 95, especially the northern Half of Virginia and all of western MD, will see some brief, wind whipped, snow showers tonight. There may be enough now to whiten the ground in spots, but, typically these storms do not drop much snow for the region. The result tomorrow, will be very cold and windy conditions tomorrow!

Of note, the Great Lakes will be providing serious amounts of Lake Effect Snow the next few days! Also, northern New England will also see some good snows.

This is just a Holiday sampler!

There were signs that a true snowstorm may take shape next week. The last several model runs have started to change the direction and may actually bring in warmer temperatures. I will keep you posted if things change!

Happy Thanksgiving!

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Monday, November 21, 2005

11/21 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Rainy! Downright RAINY! Higher mountain snows will commence overnight. A chance of a flurry or snow shower Wednesday night, especially higher elevations. Very cold temps to follow and there are still hints of a storm right around the 1^st day of December

Summary: This will be a very wet storm, especially southeastern Virginia. HPC has that area in the 3 inch plus range. The colder air will slowly turn precip to snow in the mountains. I do not expect any snow showers east of the mountains now. A clipper will be coming our way Wednesday night. A snow shower or flurry may make it to the region, but not as convinced of this. North of here and in the mountains there appears to be a good chance. The biggest thing it will bring, is windy and very cold thanksgiving day temps!

Looking Out for Winter Storms: There are hints that a system could come and cause Virginia its first snows around the 1^st. A lot of time to look into this. Do not expect a huge warm up after Wednesday of this week! Temps through early next week will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tropics: Nothing to note today

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Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Sunday, November 20, 2005

11/20 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Looks like a really rainy and cold Monday, then rain changing to snow in the Mountains later Monday night and Tuesday. Another brief shot of snow Thursday morning that many could see. Then we may actually mild up a little, before another big storm the following week. Pattern evolution will be interesting to watch, but hard to pinpoint.

Summary: The storm will likely be a rain event for most with rain changing to snow in the mountains. The mountains could see significant snow (thinking 4-8 inches). As the storm spins by it MAY be able to wrap colder air into it and cause a quick changeover to snow from I-95 west (be just a snow shower). A cold and windy day Tuesday and then a brief dry day Wednesday. A clipper will come through Wednesday night into Thursday and this could cause a period of snow showers, especially in the north. A windy and cold Thursday will then be on tap. Where do we go from there? I am a bit less optimistic of a snow storm right after this as we could see dry conditions. That being said, another big Nor’easter may come early to mid week the following week! This pattern is active and does seem to be favorable for more snow chances so I will tell you to keep posted and get ready as the weather forecast will be refined many times.

Tropics: Gamma is falling apart. Her moisture will help aid in this upcoming storm to make it quite wet!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 28members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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Saturday, November 19, 2005

11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!

Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!

Summary: Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!

Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!

The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast! This should be a busy week!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Yahoo! FareChase - Search multiple travel sites in one click.

11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!

Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!

Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!

The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast! This should be a busy week!

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Yahoo! FareChase - Search multiple travel sites in one click.

Monday, November 14, 2005

11/14 DC/MD/VA Weather Outllook

OK.. Tropics remain active as Gamma may be born today! Colder air is invading this side of the globe and could provide a progressively colder pattern. Could it flurry this Wednesday evening.. in the west..yes? Showers possible tonight tomorrow and Wednesday.. best bet Wednesday. Cooler air comes in and Thursday and Friday may be the coldest of days. Another reinforcing shot of cooler air Sunday may bring showers of rain and again snow showers in the west.

Summary: There are signs of a progressively colder pattern and this is encouraging for winter lovers! Without a Negative NAO and some other signals coming into play we have some time before the real locking power of colder conditions. But, temperatures will get knocked down and we will have less of a chance to stay warm long based on the pattern changes. Rain showers with the front Wednesday may be either accompanied by strong winds or even strong storms. After the front comes through, temps will cool dramatically and the mountains and immediate piedmont. Will have to wait and see.

Tropics: Gamma seems inevitable. The chances for a US landfall are not there, but still, what a crazy year!

Looking Out for Winter: Well, the Polar Vortex (or one of them) seems to be ready to take up residence in Canada and there are slow signs of a southward movement. This will prove to increase cold temps and increase Canadian snow cover, which has really taken off, but is not a deep snow pack yet. The pattern does not show the Negative NAO yet, but this is good in general. As mentioned, there is a chance for a passing snow shower Wednesday Evening in the west and maybe a rain or snow shower Saturday Night into Sunday morning. Will watch.

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 27 members. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

11/14 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Tropics: Gamma seems inevitable. The chances for a US landfall are not there, but still, what a crazy year!

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Saturday, November 12, 2005

11/12 2005-2006 Winter Outlook

2005-2006 Winter Outlook

I will make this more formal soon!

I am on board with a normal to slightly above normal winter. However, the SST's off the east coast and in the Gulf I think will (and have already proven to do so) aid to very moist storms up the East Coast. With that in mind, in the brief colder snaps (I think most will last for about a week.if not briefer. like we have seen) I see very energetic storms forming with abilities for Severe weather in the Southeast and also strong Nor'easters. So, if cold enough, the storms that do occur should have great potential for large amounts of precip and of course Snow! So, snow should be above normal in the Piedmont and interior Upper Mid Atlantic (VA, MD, PA, NJ) and New england, with coastal plains dealing with a lot of turnover or mix scenarios.. not surprising, as strong storms should throw warm air off the oceans inland.. and with warmer sea temps, this does not look good for areas east of I-95 in the Mid Atlantic in general.

Restating: Brief cold snaps and large storms.. a few storms should make above normal snow piedmont and higher elevations of the Mid Atlantic, and also in interior New England. Normal to slightly above normal temperatures overall.

Factors considered:
Slow Snow cover expansion in Canada (Just a trend I am watching)
Cold pool off Pacific NW Coast (Not good)
Warmer waters (at least for now) off East (Strengthens East Coast Storms)
Weather trends seen this fall. (Drought buster and Tropical systems)
ENSO.. Not a factor this year
Not a big analog person as I have seen this hurt some forecasts dramatically! (Last year comes to mind)
And yes.. the watch of other meteorologist's predictions. (Helps confirm or challenge my thinking)

That is it. I will make it more fromal soon!

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11/12 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook!

My life has been so busy! Sorry I have been unable to post or even update the web site. I turned it to winter mode, but have no linked the winter outlooks or any of the other winter links I really want up there! As far as the weather.. Cold shots in the midst of a warm fall! Next Thursday looks like a serious cold shot but sticking cold s till beyond the horizon!

Summary: Cold this morning with lows hitting freezing in many locations that have not seen it. We warm to near normal temps today, but back 5-10 degrees warmer than normal tomorrow! Next week we look much colder after Tuesday and a front. There could be some showers and storms with the front but the real story will be the winds that usher in the colder . Thursday’s highs could be in the 40s for many, but night time lows could hit the low to mid 20s for some!

Tropics: Could see some development of a system in the Caribbean. But this will be the last tropical thing I put in there!

The look out for Winter: Canada’s snow cover has done some great advancing. The storm that causes our cold will be the upper plains first big snow storm.. well.. the one a few weeks back was not too shabby either. Sticking cold looks like it may hit after or around Thanksgiving. Next weeks cold shot is nothing too small though so it is good news!

Winter Outlook out in a few! I do not have the SST map analysis done though!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 25 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Yahoo! FareChase - Search multiple travel sites in one click.

Sunday, October 23, 2005

10/23 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

WOW! A phasing system seems to be in the works after I was pretty certain we would not be in this scenario. The effects on us are definitely COOL and breezy to downright windy! Wilma and Tropical Storm (Now Depression) Alpha should team up to produce a pretty impressive wind event!

Summary: It is going to be downright chilly, if not COLD tomorrow! Highs in many areas will struggle to get out of the 40s! I am not banking on it, but the dynamics combining with Wilma as she become extratropical and merges with the frontal boundary off the east coast give me some deep down wondering if snow gets involved (though very wet) in the higher elevations! If you did not know, parts of New England did get their first elevation snows today. The Nor’easter tomorrow through Tuesday will likely be most known for its winds and not its heavy rains! There is a chance we could see about .5 to 1 inch of rain tomorrow into Early Tuesday.

Tropics: What can you say! Tropical storm Alpha (Now a depression) gave us number 23 of named storms? Are we done? Well, I am not totally sure, but the pattern moves away from favorable patern.

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 23 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Water Damage? Entertaining? Pet issues? Allergy problems? Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others! http://www.acleanercarpetco.com Residential and Commercial! (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

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Thursday, October 20, 2005

10/20 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Wild Tropical Season continues as Wilma takes aim at Florida and eventually the northeast. Our pleasant weather is going to be replaced by rainy conditions, then windy, then pretty cool. Long term I see a return to milder conditions, but some promising signs for winter. (See disclaimer at the end)

Summary: Wilma’s historic pressure of 882mb yesterday will be her strongest. Though I can see she will likely come ashore as a Category three storm in the Southwestern part of Florida, her next act will be a linking or partial phasing with a digging upper air low through the Midwest. This could do several things for us next week. Of immediate concern, there is the chance that areas could see some Thunderstorms today, and isolated Hail and or high winds will be something to watch. Back to Wilma.. She will race across Florida and then off shore up the eastern Seaboard. Her Linkage will spill energy into the trough mentioned above and induce bombogenesis off the east coast. This could mean some heavy rains in the northeast again, and we will be the edge of some of this. Upper Maryland and northward could really get soaked, but 1-3” rains may also hit our region. High winds could accompany this system and that could mean some tree damage and power outages. This being said, we will miss the worst effects that will be felt in New England. Similar to Hurricane Lilli in 1996 (See Weather America for same thoughts at http://weatheramerica.blogspot.com ). So we will have a breezy start to the week and then a cool down that could cause frost in some areas. This is perfectly normal and should be expected this time of year. Long term, there will be a return to milder air as the cold in the east looks to be transient. That being said, there are signs that the Upper level pattern may change and actually provide a better chance of Snow and colder air in Canada. This is VERY important to our winter outlook. I will keep watching!

Tropics: Wilma could be the last storm for a while in the Atlantic as the tropics appear to be headed for turbulent times. That being said, another storm or two would not surprise me! The next would be called Alpha. Wilma also is historic in that this season is the first in history to have had 3 Category five systems! What an amazing year.

Looking Out for Winter: This will be my new area to start on the Winter Outlook trail! This years major factors for winter continue to be Warm Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters, the lack of build up of Snow in Canada, and cold water off the Pacific NW coast. Current Snow cover in Canada is really low http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif . My hope is to see some real reversals of this in the next week and a half. If not, I see real signs of a warmer winter coming true. Next, the warm waters in the Atlantic SHOULD help fuel systems as the come up the east coast, so, though we may have fewer snow storms, some could be huge! Last, the Pacific NW water temps have a real cold pool. This offsets the warm Atlantic waters a bit as storms will not be riding a favorable jet when they hit the west coast that would allow digging in the east. So far, this has not been an issue based on the last drought buster and Wilma’s linkage. But the changes to new patterns could show us a lot.. Will keep watching!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 23 members. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

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Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Quick Note! WILMA Strongest Atlantic Storm in History!

Only 9 Storms Stronger World Wide!

With the 884 reading! 175mph winds

Full list here http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2005/10/list-of-strongest-typhoons-and.html

1. Typhoon Tip - 870 mb, 1979
2. Typhoon Zeb - 872 mb, 1998
3. Typhoon Gay - 872 mb, 1992
4. Typhoon Keith - 872 mb, 1997
5. Typhoon Joan - 872 mb, 1997
6. Typhoon Ivan - 872 mb, 1997
7. Typhoon Forrest - 876 mb, 1983
8. Typhoon Faxai - 879 mb, 2001
9. Typhoon Chaba - 879 mb, 2004
10. Hurricane Wilma - 884mb, 2005

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005

10/18 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Potential For a New England Hurricane may bring us serious winds and the first real cold snap with temps dipping below freezing. We have a great week ahead first before Wilma’s influence will send us into wild pattern. Exciting weather.. not great for Gulf coast areas and New England as wind damage and more rain appears to be on the way. MUCH COLDER Temperatures should come in her wake!

Summary: Well, we are in a nice stretch, but things are about to change. Yet again a hurricane (will be by noon today if not already) Wilma, is poised to do some real strengthening and will likely hit category 4 or even 5 standing at some point. Florida needs to be on the lookout for this storm and I hope they understand its potential. There are multiple scenarios being played out by the models for how they handle and ultimately phase Wilma with a trough. Similar scenarios of Hazel and even Hurricane Lilli from a while back. The results could be historic and will likely alter the pattern in the east to a very cold one for a little while as Air comes across the pole and into Canada and hen spills into the east. This could set up some Lake Effect Snows (especially at night) and could cause many places to end the growing season hard with a freeze. Windy conditions in the Mid Atlantic to New England could set the stage for massive power outages and there could be a swath of rain from the far eastern Carolinas to New England. The key thought here is STAY TUNED!

Tropics: Wilma will likely be the next Major Hurricane to affect the United States. Category 4 or even 5 status are not out of her reach. Florida needs to be on guard as this hurricane quickly intensifies.

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Saturday, October 08, 2005

10/8 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Been very, very wet. A day respite,m another system, a cool week ahead.

Quick update on what has been amazing rain amounts in the regions. The 5-10 inches of rain predicted for the region was really a good estimate and we have essentially erased the water deficits. Pretty amazing. Due to persistent instability the next 24 hours or so we will continue a slight chance of rain. On Monday another disturbance will come through and another moderate rain event (1 inch plus amounts) could come through. We should continue cool and then will see the influence of the subtropical system off shore!

not much time to update, just stay safe. remember that water is heavy and if it is moving can move you or a car causing a drowning threat. DO NOT drive through water that is covering roads!

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Friday, October 07, 2005

10/7 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

HEAVY RAINS Are here and will be for the next 24 hours. There could be a brief respite, but showers and storms (especially mountains) could fire again Sunday adding to what, by then, will be Saturated grounds. Flood watch in effect! Tropics remain active and a pattern repeat could happen later next week as well which would mean more heavy rains! True shifty in pattern could keep us in line for more storminess and seasonal to slightly below normal temps for a while!

Summary: Wow.. It is famine to a feast when it comes to rain. Areas could, under the right circumstances, see rain totals in the 5-10” range by the end of weekend. Tropical systems and disturbances riding up a slow moving front has a tropical moisture fetch. This combined with a high off the new England coast which is bringing moisture off the Atlantic is combining for a great rain event to occur. Flooding threats will likely be small streams and not the main basins, but I am betting we get close to normal on river flows early next week! See the drought page (http://www.midatlanticweather.com/drought) I am not going to comment to much on next week except a another wet system (not likely this wet) could affect us again later in the week. Seasonably cool should be the rule with temps

Tropics: Another Tropical system could be in the progress of forming off the FL coast. Will be watching.

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Wednesday, October 05, 2005

10/5 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Rain in the Forecast! Maybe quite a bit too, but a lot depends on how slow the front pushes through! Much cooler temps for the weekend and a general dry pattern returning with temps near normal next week!

Summary: Tropical Storm Tammy formed this morning and will play an important role in the weather the next few days. A strong front that is causing a serious winter storm for the upper Plains States and Canada will be approaching and slowly moving through the area. The remnants of Tammy should get entrained into the front and the low pressure will ride up the coast. This could really do some work on the rain deficits as the rain amounts MAY approach 3”+ in parts of the Eastern areas (East of I–95). The concern is that the front is too far east to get most of the area really wet. The best bet for good rains would be right along the coast. After the storm goes by cooler drier area should come through this weekend. Long term we look to drier and remaining seasonally cool.

Tropics: Tropical Storm Tammy was born this morning just east of Florida. Watching a few things out there, but tropics are not too busy beyond this system.

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Monday, October 03, 2005

DC/MD/VA Weather outlook

Big changes in appear to be coming. Strong low could ride up the east coast later this week bring rain (FINALLY) and much cooler temps for the weekend!

Summary: Dry conditions continue with deficits running as high as 4+ inches. We are likely to see a break in this coming Wednesday through Friday as well as a turn to much cooler weather for the weekend. Temps Saturday may only be in the 50s for some and mid 60s for many.

Tropics: Tropics are getting busy again. Tropical Storm Stan will likely be a Hurricane before hitting Mexico. Then a tropical system off the east coast could be the system that links with a strong front coming towards us this Thursday. The linkage of that Low (maybe a tropical Storm) will then bring the Low up the east coast. Cold high to the north will cause quite a windy pattern and also funnel some truly chilly air into the region for Saturday! Kind of nice to have some interesting weather.

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