NWS and I are not in agreement on this one. Immediate Piedmont of Far NW VA and Western MD I could see hitting Winter Storm Criterea from Ice..but I agree with TinkWx (See Forum) on the warmer side of things so I downgraded to a brief mix over to rain most areas.
NWS has a watch out area wide..
Their Discussion
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
STORM THAT WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE ENERGY THAT THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED FOR
DAYS THAT WILL HELP SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS...AND DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE WEST WITH THE INITIAL LOW...MOVING IT UP
OR EVEN JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...BECOMING A NOR'EASTER.
THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FOR A STORM TO AFFECT OUR CWA THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES AND
THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO MAKE THIS A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED BOTH SLOWER AND
WARMER...SOME SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS WARM. IN
ADDITION...EVEN IF A WARMER SOLUTION DOES OCCUR...THERE REMAINS THE
RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.
EXPERIENCE SAYS THAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SOMETIMES DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TOO SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE INVOLVED. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL BEGIN PRECIPITATION
SOONER THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES /INCLUDING NCEP AND CZYS
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS/ HAVE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAVORED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THEN...THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW WARM AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
AIR INTRUSION ALOFT WILL CAUSE A MESSY MIX...MORE THAN LIKELY MORE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAN SNOW
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IF THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS TO
BE BELIEVED. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SNOW THE
LONGEST. QPF SHOULD BE BOUNTIFUL...EVEN IF OUR CWA GETS CAUGHT IN
A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF QPF BETWEEN THE INITIAL LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. SUCH QPF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND THIS IS
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EXACT AMOUNTS OF EACH TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED AT A LATER TIME.
MOREOVER...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
PRECIPITATION LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
DOMINATES AND NORTHWEST WINDS DRAW IN COLDER AIR. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
NOR'EASTER...GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 45 MPH GUSTS /IF NOT HIGHER/ TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA...SO WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE FUTURE.
ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVES ICE
ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWERLINES WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE TO
ICE INDUCED DAMAGE WITH WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Still saying just a mix and then mainly rain. Still Stay Tuned! NWS Is not in agreement!
NWS and I are not in agreement on this one. Immediate Piedmont of Far NW VA and Western MD I could see hitting Winter Storm Criterea from Ice..but I agree with TinkWx (See Forum) on the warmer side of things so I downgraded to a brief mix over to rain most areas.
NWS has a watch out area wide..
Their Discussion
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
STORM THAT WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE ENERGY THAT THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED FOR
DAYS THAT WILL HELP SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS...AND DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE WEST WITH THE INITIAL LOW...MOVING IT UP
OR EVEN JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...BECOMING A NOR'EASTER.
THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FOR A STORM TO AFFECT OUR CWA THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES AND
THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO MAKE THIS A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED BOTH SLOWER AND
WARMER...SOME SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS WARM. IN
ADDITION...EVEN IF A WARMER SOLUTION DOES OCCUR...THERE REMAINS THE
RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.
EXPERIENCE SAYS THAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SOMETIMES DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TOO SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE INVOLVED. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL BEGIN PRECIPITATION
SOONER THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES /INCLUDING NCEP AND CZYS
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS/ HAVE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAVORED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THEN...THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW WARM AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
AIR INTRUSION ALOFT WILL CAUSE A MESSY MIX...MORE THAN LIKELY MORE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAN SNOW
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IF THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS TO
BE BELIEVED. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SNOW THE
LONGEST. QPF SHOULD BE BOUNTIFUL...EVEN IF OUR CWA GETS CAUGHT IN
A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF QPF BETWEEN THE INITIAL LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. SUCH QPF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND THIS IS
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EXACT AMOUNTS OF EACH TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED AT A LATER TIME.
MOREOVER...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
PRECIPITATION LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
DOMINATES AND NORTHWEST WINDS DRAW IN COLDER AIR. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
NOR'EASTER...GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 45 MPH GUSTS /IF NOT HIGHER/ TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA...SO WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE FUTURE.
ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVES ICE
ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWERLINES WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE TO
ICE INDUCED DAMAGE WITH WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE.
NWS has a watch out area wide..
Their Discussion
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
STORM THAT WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE ENERGY THAT THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED FOR
DAYS THAT WILL HELP SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS...AND DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE WEST WITH THE INITIAL LOW...MOVING IT UP
OR EVEN JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...BECOMING A NOR'EASTER.
THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FOR A STORM TO AFFECT OUR CWA THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES AND
THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO MAKE THIS A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED BOTH SLOWER AND
WARMER...SOME SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS WARM. IN
ADDITION...EVEN IF A WARMER SOLUTION DOES OCCUR...THERE REMAINS THE
RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.
EXPERIENCE SAYS THAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SOMETIMES DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TOO SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE INVOLVED. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL BEGIN PRECIPITATION
SOONER THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES /INCLUDING NCEP AND CZYS
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS/ HAVE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAVORED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THEN...THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW WARM AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
AIR INTRUSION ALOFT WILL CAUSE A MESSY MIX...MORE THAN LIKELY MORE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAN SNOW
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IF THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS TO
BE BELIEVED. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SNOW THE
LONGEST. QPF SHOULD BE BOUNTIFUL...EVEN IF OUR CWA GETS CAUGHT IN
A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF QPF BETWEEN THE INITIAL LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. SUCH QPF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND THIS IS
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EXACT AMOUNTS OF EACH TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED AT A LATER TIME.
MOREOVER...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
PRECIPITATION LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
DOMINATES AND NORTHWEST WINDS DRAW IN COLDER AIR. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
NOR'EASTER...GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 45 MPH GUSTS /IF NOT HIGHER/ TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA...SO WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE FUTURE.
ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVES ICE
ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWERLINES WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE TO
ICE INDUCED DAMAGE WITH WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE.
Winter Storm downgrade to Brief Mix and then RAINY and Windy
There will still be some mixing of ice at the onset of this system, but now, with the main low west of the mountains much stronger and no transfer of true energy to a coastal system as thought, this system now appears to be a majority rain event until you get to Pennsylvania! Yes,, quite a change, but the system will pan out much different than where models started. Western PA, NY and up into New England should get a good amount of snow!
Sorry for the hype down in the VA, MD areas!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
Sorry for the hype down in the VA, MD areas!
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Thursday, December 13, 2007
WINTER STORM WILL BE A MIX AND MESS! SNOW LESS> ICE& RAIN MORE
Based on all data now coming in from models and analysis this system will have a lot of mixing with sleet and freezing rain as well as rain. Areas at most risk for significant storm situations would be North and west of a Roanoke to Charlottesville to Dulles to Western Baltimore line. Areas along the immediate piedmont parallel to this line up to I-95 will see some icing and some snow, but there will be a lot of mixing.
The net outcome will be sloppy accumulation that should reach storm warning criteria in the mountains and immediate piedmont with potential warning, but more likely advisory criteria along I95 and to the west.
Changes will likely occur, and they may continue to point to more rain. I will keep you posted.
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
The net outcome will be sloppy accumulation that should reach storm warning criteria in the mountains and immediate piedmont with potential warning, but more likely advisory criteria along I95 and to the west.
Changes will likely occur, and they may continue to point to more rain. I will keep you posted.
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Winter Storm will not have as much snow. Ice a factor!
I thought I would try an Audio post as I am very tired! Sounds so nasal ! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/2008/VORC002.WAVTuesday, December 11, 2007
MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY!
It is all speculation now, but models look very consistent on this storm. Based on the way they look I am putting out this graphic. Highest risk area now for 6"+ and a general area I think will have impacts on the situation.
This is all preliminary!
A few things that are in play:
- Climatologically speaking it would seem too early for a huge storm east of the mountains. That being said, it could very well happen! If so it will be Historic
- There are missing classic factors that could help the storm. NAO is not negative so concerns about a more inland track and ability of sticking cold air.
- As the storm winds up it will throw warm air in the upper levels which could mean sleet in Eastern regions
- WE ARE STILL MANY HOURS AWAY FROM THE STORM
Winter Storm Alert mode!
Models are in agreement on bringing a major winter storm to the area Saturday into Sunday! More to come! A lot of uncertainty at this time!
--------------------------
Sent from my BlackBerry Wireless Device
MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND! TS OLGA! DISMAL WEATHER CONTINUES, BUT WARM!
The temperatures soared to record levels south of the stationary front that is still across the region! Areas hit the 80s! Again, areas in southern regions in the sun will see temps in the 70s and potentially 80s tomorrow, but some regions will be cooler today with some marine influence (Central Virginia)
As a storm system heads our way Thursday it will play a key role in what could be a big winter storm this weekend as it will usher in the colder air! Much to consider between now and then. There is the possibility that areas in the west could see some snow Thursday night as the colder air arrives. Friday looks like the calm before the big storm.
So today, fog and dreary, but rain chances are less. Warm still in the south with 70s and low 50 in the north. Tomorrow, much warmer with 80s far south and 70s central with 60s in the north. Rain increasing! Thursday, rain and temps dropping back to the 40s north, 50s central, 60s still in the south. Calmer drier Friday, followed by a West of I-95 possible winter storm Saturday!
I did not mention it, but TS Olga was born yesterday as well! Not unheard of!
BUSY WEEK! Hope to have more updates soon!
As a storm system heads our way Thursday it will play a key role in what could be a big winter storm this weekend as it will usher in the colder air! Much to consider between now and then. There is the possibility that areas in the west could see some snow Thursday night as the colder air arrives. Friday looks like the calm before the big storm.
So today, fog and dreary, but rain chances are less. Warm still in the south with 70s and low 50 in the north. Tomorrow, much warmer with 80s far south and 70s central with 60s in the north. Rain increasing! Thursday, rain and temps dropping back to the 40s north, 50s central, 60s still in the south. Calmer drier Friday, followed by a West of I-95 possible winter storm Saturday!
I did not mention it, but TS Olga was born yesterday as well! Not unheard of!
BUSY WEEK! Hope to have more updates soon!
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Dismal rainy cool weather!
Yes, I have been somewhat absent.. sorry to all. We had some warm air advection snow, sleet and freezing rain since yesterday morning. This resulted in some Winter Weather Advisories and some slickness out there. The weather will remain dismal and cloudy through the weekend with temperatures rising to the 40s today and tomorrow. 50s will return for the early part of next week with plenty of rain chances every day through Thursday! Highs Wednesday will be 60 to 65 most areas!
Temperatures will return to 40s and low 50s next Friday. There are signs of a colder shot of air next weekend!
Temperatures will return to 40s and low 50s next Friday. There are signs of a colder shot of air next weekend!
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Light Snow falling as of 6:15 AM in Sterling! 1-3" possible today!
Just highlighting that snow is taking over the area earlier than I expected. Also thinking a 1 to 3" snow is more likely now! I see accumulations on the roadways is occurring! Be careful on your commute in!
Snow ill taper off later this evening.
All for now!
Snow ill taper off later this evening.
All for now!
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
1 to 2" of snow. Higher amounts along and west of the mountains
Snow should begin in the early morning far west and overtake the rest of the area by noon. A light snow appears likely with areas that are shaded (under trees and around buildings) getting over an inch of snow and other areas around an inch.
The significance of this event will be the first accumulating snows for the region. Some slick spots will be possible.
The significance of this event will be the first accumulating snows for the region. Some slick spots will be possible.
SNOW ALERT WEDNESDAY: 1-3" of snow possible mainly on grassy surfaces
Snow is now likely for the northern third of Virginia, all of Maryland, and much of Pennsylvania. A general 1" to 3" may occur, with more north and west of the major cities.
Roads could become slick tomorrow morning during rush hour but will likely improve as the daytime temperatures will be close to or right above freezing. Most accumulation will be on grassy surfaces.
Stay tuned for updates this evening as radar images will start to show the likely magnitude of the snowfall.
All for now!
Roads could become slick tomorrow morning during rush hour but will likely improve as the daytime temperatures will be close to or right above freezing. Most accumulation will be on grassy surfaces.
Stay tuned for updates this evening as radar images will start to show the likely magnitude of the snowfall.
All for now!
Monday, December 03, 2007
VERY WINDY DAY IN STORE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES! LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM WARM UP!
Today's headline... WINDY! Many areas are under wind advisories or even High wind warnings. Temperatures have probably peaked for the day and could fall slowly the rest of the day.
Tomorrow we will see temperatures in the low and mid 40s with sunny skies.
Wednesday will be interesting with an Alberta Clipper that will visit the region. The system is showing up drier and drier on models so the likely outcome will be a couple of inches of snow on the west facing side of the mountains, and just scattered snow showers east of the mountains. There is the possibility, however, for the snow to fall during morning rush hour.. could this be the little dusting that causes so many commuting delays? Not sure now! Will update as needed. Temperatures will struggle to reach 40 in many areas that day.
The rest of the week should see sunny skies and highs low to mid 40s.
There are some strong signs that next week will see a reversal and temperatures may go above normal!
All for now!
Tomorrow we will see temperatures in the low and mid 40s with sunny skies.
Wednesday will be interesting with an Alberta Clipper that will visit the region. The system is showing up drier and drier on models so the likely outcome will be a couple of inches of snow on the west facing side of the mountains, and just scattered snow showers east of the mountains. There is the possibility, however, for the snow to fall during morning rush hour.. could this be the little dusting that causes so many commuting delays? Not sure now! Will update as needed. Temperatures will struggle to reach 40 in many areas that day.
The rest of the week should see sunny skies and highs low to mid 40s.
There are some strong signs that next week will see a reversal and temperatures may go above normal!
All for now!
Sunday, December 02, 2007
A LITTLE SLEET STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. RAIN AND THEN REALLY COLD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY!
There were reports of some light snow and sleet overnight, but nothing dramatic. Washington DC tied a record for the date for a trace of snow around 11PM last night. Rain will be on the increase this afternoon and overnight. Rain will be quite heavy at times overnight. Tomorrow will be extremely windy with falling temperatures from the 40s. 30's Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (On Wednesday temps may not get above freezing in many areas!).. maybe some low to mid 40s in the south. Wednesday keeps looking interesting with a clipper coming through and light snow overspreading th area. We could see our first accumulating snow.. thinking 1-3 inches with a little higher amounts in the Mountains. We continue cold the rest of the week, but it does look like we will see a slow warming trend next week. I am not certain how long the warm up will last.
I will start an obs thread for this system! First of the season. Please post anything you have seen the last 24 hours!
Welcome to Winter!
All for now!
I will start an obs thread for this system! First of the season. Please post anything you have seen the last 24 hours!
Welcome to Winter!
All for now!
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Some light Sleet, Snow and Freezing Rain possible tonight. Cold Week. Snow possible Wednesday!
The next 24 hors are a bit complicated. The further north you are the better the chances that you would see some sleet and freezing rain, even snow tonight. Nothing looks heavy and areas should start warming fairly quickly to turn things to rain. A cold raw day is on hand. Areas in Pennsylvania could see enough frozen precipitation to cause some travel issues. Rain will end tomorrow night, even switch areas in Pennsylvania back to snow, and then a fairly cold week is ahead. The Mountain areas will see some accumulating snows on the western slopes as the upslope snows from the Great lakes. Highs 40's Monday and Tuesday will turn to 30's and low 40s at best the rest of the week.
Wednesday will see a slipper approach. I am not that thrilled with clippers and their snow output, but there is a certain trajectory, if taken, that could bring snow to northern Virginia and Maryland. Taking the models at face values, 1- 3" of snow could occur Wednesday into Thursday... but it is still far off, and Clippers can also bring just snow showers, or rain if the trajectory is incorrect.
After this week we will likely see a warmer trend. there is still another system to watch for next weekend, but I am unclear on it now!
All for now!
Wednesday will see a slipper approach. I am not that thrilled with clippers and their snow output, but there is a certain trajectory, if taken, that could bring snow to northern Virginia and Maryland. Taking the models at face values, 1- 3" of snow could occur Wednesday into Thursday... but it is still far off, and Clippers can also bring just snow showers, or rain if the trajectory is incorrect.
After this week we will likely see a warmer trend. there is still another system to watch for next weekend, but I am unclear on it now!
All for now!
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Snow chances fade with rain chances and then colder conditions next week
I am not saying that areas in the north, especially immediate piedmont and valley locations will not see some frozen precip, but models now run the Sunday/Monday low that was potentially going to be very far south, up into the Great Lakes ending any thoughts of real snow here. This low will tap Canadian air on the back side and plummet temperatures to very cold readings next week! This will be the coldest we have seen.
For today and tomorrow temps will be in the upper 40s north to mid 50s in the south. A front comes through tomorrow and knocks temps back a bit and then we have the Precipitation arriving Late Saturday night or Sunday. As I noted, some frozen could be possible at the onset in areas north and immediately east for the mountains or in valley locations.
After the rain event Sunday into Monday, we should see a stretch of fairly cold temperatures with many areas in the 30s for highs for a few days.
All for now!
For today and tomorrow temps will be in the upper 40s north to mid 50s in the south. A front comes through tomorrow and knocks temps back a bit and then we have the Precipitation arriving Late Saturday night or Sunday. As I noted, some frozen could be possible at the onset in areas north and immediately east for the mountains or in valley locations.
After the rain event Sunday into Monday, we should see a stretch of fairly cold temperatures with many areas in the 30s for highs for a few days.
All for now!
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Clearing and windy. Cold looks likely next week! Weekend weather could spell some mixed Precip!
First off, areas did fairly well th last 24 hours north and west of Virginia in the rain department. Parts of Maryland say an inch or more in rain. Things clear up and temps really stay close to where they are this morning.
Colder air arrives this weekend, and a storm system approaches from the SW. Initially some colder air should cause at least some mixed precipitation in the Colder piedmont and mountain valleys, as well as the north. As of now (and this may change) the system is getting forced inland and west of the Appalachians which would turn us all to rain. There is still time to see what will come of this.
Next week still looks fairly cold!
All for now!
Colder air arrives this weekend, and a storm system approaches from the SW. Initially some colder air should cause at least some mixed precipitation in the Colder piedmont and mountain valleys, as well as the north. As of now (and this may change) the system is getting forced inland and west of the Appalachians which would turn us all to rain. There is still time to see what will come of this.
Next week still looks fairly cold!
All for now!
Monday, November 26, 2007
Rain - even the chance for Thunder today/tonight! Long term pattern DOES show cold next week! SNOW?
Rain could be heavy at times today and then overnight there is even a chance for isolates thunderstorms as the front moves through. This system will not tap the colder areas of Canada so it will leave seasonal weather in its wake. A front moves through Thursday that will send temperatures to below normal values again. A week from now it does appear a storm will be approaching the region. Based on current forecast models, enough cold air does look around to at least start this system as a winter weather event! How much and how long this will last is a matter of time to tell!
Very long term shows a return to seasonal or slightly above normal temperatures after the colder week of next week!
All for now!
Very long term shows a return to seasonal or slightly above normal temperatures after the colder week of next week!
All for now!
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Sleet and Snow Pellets reported (and I saw some) overnight and this morning. On target for a rainy Monday
Last night on my trip from Gettysburg to Sterling Virginia I hit several pockets of Snow Pellets and sleet. Sleet was also reported in Central Virginia this morning which was associated with some energy and overrunning of rain.
Rain will come in tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s area wide though Thursday when another front will cross the area and cause some showers and temps back into the 40s and low 50s at best.
There are definite signs of colder air the first week of December and a possible winter weather event around the 4th or 5th. All this is speculation this far out! We will have to see.
All for now!
Rain will come in tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s area wide though Thursday when another front will cross the area and cause some showers and temps back into the 40s and low 50s at best.
There are definite signs of colder air the first week of December and a possible winter weather event around the 4th or 5th. All this is speculation this far out! We will have to see.
All for now!
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Cold Morning.Rain Monday. seasonal.. pattern shift could mean winter weather
We had the coldest night so far this season last night. I had a low of 21 which seems comparable to most of the colder lows throughout the region. A front and associated weather system will cause some rain here Monday. Seasonal temperatures in the 50s will persist much of the week, but turning slightly colder next weekend.
Long term conditions seems to start to favor better chances of cold and precipitation the week of December third! We could see our first real chance of wintry weather that week!
All for now!
Long term conditions seems to start to favor better chances of cold and precipitation the week of December third! We could see our first real chance of wintry weather that week!
All for now!
Friday, November 09, 2007
More rain than I thought.. SNOW close by.. maybe a bit more.. warmer next week and then?
This morning snow fell in many western areas including areas just to my west in Purcellville, VA! Pretty exciting to see it so close. 3 disturbance are swinging or have swung through the region leaving much more rains today than first thought! Coldest high of the Fall with highs in the low 40s today. As the third piece of energy travels through this evening rain has filled back in and there is a chance as winds switch to the north that rain could again switch to or mix with snow for a while!
Rain will depart during the first half of the day Saturday with winds picking up as a coastal low gets spun up off the coast. Cool conditions will continue with highs in the 40s and low 50s in the south.
Things start warming with highs low to mid 50s in the North, upper 50s south Sunday, 50's and low 60s Monday, Low to mid 60s Tuesday.
Long term is up in the air with possibilities of warmer or colder temps. Hedging my bets that we will stay somewhat mild and not super cold though we may cool a bit after a front mid next week. Some models point to a Thanksgiving week cold outbreak, others mild to "warm". the battles will continue!
All for now!
Rain will depart during the first half of the day Saturday with winds picking up as a coastal low gets spun up off the coast. Cool conditions will continue with highs in the 40s and low 50s in the south.
Things start warming with highs low to mid 50s in the North, upper 50s south Sunday, 50's and low 60s Monday, Low to mid 60s Tuesday.
Long term is up in the air with possibilities of warmer or colder temps. Hedging my bets that we will stay somewhat mild and not super cold though we may cool a bit after a front mid next week. Some models point to a Thanksgiving week cold outbreak, others mild to "warm". the battles will continue!
All for now!
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Colder conditions have arrived. Moderation to begin Sunday! Snow Showers?
Amazing what stronger overnight winds that are downsloping from the mountains will do. I woke up to 44 degrees which was warmer than my 8PM reading last night. Breezy and cool conditions will prevail today with areas in the upper 40s in the north to mid and upper 50s in the south. Tonight will have widespread 20s especially west of I95 and low 30s east which will mean the coldest night of the season thus far. Cool and cold conditions will persist through Saturday. A disturbance **MAY** be able to squeeze some showers out Friday afternoon and rain and snow showers Friday Night with the best chance of precipitation in the mountains. This will be mainly northern half of the area.
Milder/Seasonal conditions return Sunday and then a slight warming through mid next week when another shot at some rain arrives!
All for now!
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Good Soaking rains over last night usher in cooler weather the rest of the week! Snow Showers?!
A nice rain fell last night with the front and that rain should be ending in the east by later morning. Cooler air now moves in and will persist until about Sunday when warmer conditions will begin. Temps at night will dip into the 20s for many areas especially Wednesday night. Now, there is a chance some precipitation could fall Thursday through Saturday and ay night time this would mix with or be snow showers. This is especially true for higher elevations and some snow showers there look likely Thursday night and Friday night. For areas west of 95 up to the mountains a mixture of snow and rain showers seems possible Friday night!
Realistically, I am not super impressed with the idea of any snow east of the mountains, but the possibility exists.
Longer term looks like a little warm up and then back to seasonal next week after another front.
All for now!
Realistically, I am not super impressed with the idea of any snow east of the mountains, but the possibility exists.
Longer term looks like a little warm up and then back to seasonal next week after another front.
All for now!
Monday, November 05, 2007
Cool down about to occur. Lasting colder conditions unlikely.
Today will be nice with increasing cloudiness. Temps will be mid and upper 60s to lower 70s in the southern areas.The strong front will cross the region overnight and tomorrow temps will be about 10 degrees cooler. Then about 5- 10 degrees cooler after that. This will mean most areas will freeze that have not officially ending the rest of the growing season for anyone.
Wednesday through Friday will see highs in the 40s north, and 50s south with some 30s in the mountains. There is a chance that the mountains will see a touch of snow this coming Thursday into Friday while the rest of us see some isolated showers Friday.
Long term, a slow return to seasonal to just above normal temperatures seems likely as the Jet stream takes a zonal flow pattern. There could be a significant weather maker around the 11th which I ill keep an eye on.
All for now!
Wednesday through Friday will see highs in the 40s north, and 50s south with some 30s in the mountains. There is a chance that the mountains will see a touch of snow this coming Thursday into Friday while the rest of us see some isolated showers Friday.
Long term, a slow return to seasonal to just above normal temperatures seems likely as the Jet stream takes a zonal flow pattern. There could be a significant weather maker around the 11th which I ill keep an eye on.
All for now!
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Colder Week on the way! NWS even has a chance of snow in the area!
Seasonal temperatures will remain today and tomorrow and then we have a strong cold front move through dropping temperatures to the 50s and 40s. A disturbance could make it in here towards the end of the week and (according to one model) cause a mix of rain and snow in the higher areas of the piedmont and the mountains would see just snow. I am interested in seeing what *MAY* happen but wanted to mention it as it is in the NWS forecast!
All for now!
All for now!
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Cool refreshing air arrives and just gets reinforced and reinforced!
After a balmy last week, we are now sitting in the first in what appears to be a series of refreshing Canadian High Pressure Systems. This will mean the cool refreshing air gets reinforced every few days and highs Sunday may not reach far above 70 in many areas. There re signs that even cooler air is on the horizon later next week and the first real chill of 40's will be felt more than in just the mountains. The rain the last few days was welcome, but the deficits remain and may not be helped much during this time as the flow is less wet than what is needed. Next Chance of rain is Friday Evening.
In the tropics the far western Gulf of Mexico could have a tropical depression already and another near the lesser Antilles. It is possible I will have a new tropics site up near the end of the season!
All for now!
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Tropical Storm Gabrielle affecting NC. Some good chances of rain and cooler weather!
The 90 degree readings will be here one more day as we continue a warmer than normal period! Temperatures will fall off this week and a few days may see temps only in the 70s and some mid 80s in the southern areas! Several rain chances this week as the cooler air arrives along a slow moving front. This will be a hit or miss rain week so it is hard to pinpoint the best chances, but they definitely increase starting Monday Night and Tuesday and another more concentrated chance on Thursday.
Gabrielle will come on shore in the Outer Banks later this morning into early afternoon. She has strengthened some this morning and may be a pretty strong 55 mph storm for some. She is going to redirect north and East pretty quickly and head out to sea. The tropics remain kind of busy, but the area should remain free of tropical threats based on the upper air wind patterns.
OF NOTE.. The strongest cold air intrusion of th season will hot the upper Midwest and the northeast with daytime temps in the 50s for the first times this year! Canada will be pretty cool and many frosts and freezes will occur up there! Winter is on the way!
Jimmy
Gabrielle will come on shore in the Outer Banks later this morning into early afternoon. She has strengthened some this morning and may be a pretty strong 55 mph storm for some. She is going to redirect north and East pretty quickly and head out to sea. The tropics remain kind of busy, but the area should remain free of tropical threats based on the upper air wind patterns.
OF NOTE.. The strongest cold air intrusion of th season will hot the upper Midwest and the northeast with daytime temps in the 50s for the first times this year! Canada will be pretty cool and many frosts and freezes will occur up there! Winter is on the way!
Jimmy
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Tropical Threat could bring needed rain and east coast Hurricane Threat!
The disturbance off the east coast does appear that it may turn into a tropical system and pose a threat to the east coast later this weekend! This could help the drought but we hope not cause severe damage! This will need to be watched!
Felix regained strgnth to Cate 5 before landfall in Honduras. Forecast for warm and dry continues all week!
Not long to post here! Just note that it will be warm and continued dry through the rest of theweek. The fire danger could really start getting real again. Be careful!
Felix weakened yesterday after its amazing 24 hour strengthening, but again strengthened this morning and is going to devastate parts of Honduras as it looks like it made it back to category 5 status!
WTNT61 KNHC 041040
TCUAT1
HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
640 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE FELIX HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TCUAT1
HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
640 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE FELIX HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Monday, September 03, 2007
Dry and warm weather to continue. Felix exploded to categoiry 5 yesterday aiming for Honduras!
What a beautiful weekend! temperature were reasonable and humidity was very low. The dry weather will continue which is not the best for our drought. Temperature will range in the mid and upper 80s to some lower 90s.
Felix was amazing! It strengthened by 85 mph winds yesterday becoming a serious Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds!! Check the latest information on the Tropical page!
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Steamy and warm today with more scattered showers and storms. Cooler nice weekend next weekend?!
Next weekend could really be a great one, unless you head to the beach. A taste of more Fall Like temps may visit.
For Today, warm and muggy with scattered storms look likely! Some isolated severe storms do seem possible, but not as widespread. We continue to need the rains! The drought is pretty strong and so far has not been relieved.
See the Drought Monitor http://drought.unl.edu/dm/6_week.gif
All for now!
For Today, warm and muggy with scattered storms look likely! Some isolated severe storms do seem possible, but not as widespread. We continue to need the rains! The drought is pretty strong and so far has not been relieved.
See the Drought Monitor http://drought.unl.edu/dm/6_week.gif
All for now!
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Extreme Heat Hs popped Isolated Severe Storms
Storms have been popping (Especially in the mountains) and they have had plenty of energy to become severe. so Isolated Storms will continue to pop up and they very well could turn severe. Please stay alert and cool! At the time I am writing this in Sterling it is 96 degrees with a heat Index of 107!
More widespread storms are likely tomorrow and again, isolated severe storms could form.
BTW... Mid Atlantic Weather will start to be updated soon and posts will be more frequent from now on!
All for now!
HOT! Then Thunderstorms and back to more normal temps! Much cooler next Friday!
Today is extremely HOT! Steamy Hot too! Stay cool, drink fluids, and wear light colored clothing! Just no fun when staying outside unless you are in a pool!
Tonight into tomorrow an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms will "cool" the area to the lower 90s tomorrow. Then a week where temp start in the seasonal mid 80s and maybe down to highs only in the 70s this coming Friday.
Tropics: They seemed to heat up and cool down again The aftermath of Dean was not as bad as one would have feared. Mean he was but many in Mexico and other areas headed warnings making him less of a killer than he could have been. Also, he hit a rural part of Mexico. Thank goodness for the miss to many that would have been devastated by him.
All for now!
Tonight into tomorrow an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms will "cool" the area to the lower 90s tomorrow. Then a week where temp start in the seasonal mid 80s and maybe down to highs only in the 70s this coming Friday.
Tropics: They seemed to heat up and cool down again The aftermath of Dean was not as bad as one would have feared. Mean he was but many in Mexico and other areas headed warnings making him less of a killer than he could have been. Also, he hit a rural part of Mexico. Thank goodness for the miss to many that would have been devastated by him.
All for now!
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DEAN COMES ASHORE WITH 165 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS! WOW! MUCH NEEDED RAINS FALL HERE. SUMMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN!
WOW! MEAN DEAN lives up to his name and then some as he strengthened to 165 mph winds before landfall. The devastation a hurricane of that magnitude can have is just unheard of! The Yucatan is getting hammered as he weakens over land today. He will emerge again and make a second landfall in Mexico later this week!
For us. Welcome rains and cooler temperatures have been very good for our parched region. The cooler air and rainy skies will begin to break up tomorrow and officially be gone Thursday as highs climb back up to 85 to 90 degree range and in the 90s by Friday.
The weekend could hold some thunder.
Tropics: Another disturbance out between Bahama and the Lee Ward islands showed some flare up yesterday and will need to be watched, but looks pitiful this morning!
All for now!
Monday, August 20, 2007
Dean is just 1 mile an hour shy of Category 5 at 8pm update!
WOW! What a system. He is so well defined and truly devastating! I hope the best for those near Belize tonight and do not which that type of situation on anyone!
All for now!
All for now!
Sunday, August 19, 2007
MUCH NEEDED RAINS APPEAR TO BE HEADED OUR WAY! JAMAICA WILL DEAL WITH A DEVASTATING BLOW FROM DEAN! THEN WHERE?
A stalled front will be welcome neighbor between today and tomorrow as it provides a focus for multiple impulses of rain! Rain amounts now seem to be a general 1 - 2" with some places a little higher in storms! What seemed like it may be more focused in Northern areas now seems to be a pretty broad area so most of Virginia will see rains that are needed! Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday and then a warm up to the 90 degree readings by next weekend.
Dean maintains a strong Category 4 Status. There are some ranges in guidance as to the eventual track, but, the track will be determined if a small weakness could be exploited and turn it a bit northward.. If that happens Texas could seriously be dealt with a huge destructive blow. Now Northern Mexico looks to be the eventual target. Before then a hit on Jamaica today and then the Yucatan tomorrow into Tuesday. It will devastate anything in its path so Texas needs to stay alert to this! I have a nice tracking forum topic if interested.
All for now!
Dean maintains a strong Category 4 Status. There are some ranges in guidance as to the eventual track, but, the track will be determined if a small weakness could be exploited and turn it a bit northward.. If that happens Texas could seriously be dealt with a huge destructive blow. Now Northern Mexico looks to be the eventual target. Before then a hit on Jamaica today and then the Yucatan tomorrow into Tuesday. It will devastate anything in its path so Texas needs to stay alert to this! I have a nice tracking forum topic if interested.
All for now!
Saturday, August 18, 2007
MEAN DEAN! MEANWHILE WE HAVE GREAT WEEKEND!!!
MUCH NEEDED RAINS ON THE WAY!!!!
Dean on the cusp of Category 5 status
It seems more frequent than in recent years that we get Category 5 storms. this year the warm ocean temperatures have give the fuel needed to explode a very serious storm. There is some uncertainty if he will come ashore in the Yucatan and then where along the Gulf he will come ashore! No doubt he is serious! The tight eye reminds me of Andrew.
Needless to say he is amazing to watch and I think he will be a category 5 today!
Interests in Gulf need to watch what could be a serious catastrophic storm if he comes ashore and is still powerful.
All for now!
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Severe possible this afternoon
Severe storms a are a possibility this afternoon as an energetic system comes close the area. Be alert and stay tuned for watches and/or warnings.
All for now.
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
All for now.
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Tropical Storm Erin and Mean Dean!
Tropical Storm Erin will hit Southern Texas as a mild tropical storm. The big concern with Texas is more unneeded rainfall in a water logged state.
That is not the real system of worry. Tropical Storm Dean will likely make it to hurricane strength in the next 24 hours. Current projections have him strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane and threaten the Yucatan and possibly the Gulf with a serious storm threat.
See the latest in the tropical area on Midatlanticweather.com
That is not the real system of worry. Tropical Storm Dean will likely make it to hurricane strength in the next 24 hours. Current projections have him strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane and threaten the Yucatan and possibly the Gulf with a serious storm threat.
See the latest in the tropical area on Midatlanticweather.com
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Tropical Season Heating Up
I have not had a lot of time to post but hopefully will be able to do more soon!
Tropical Storm Dean was born as of 11am this morning! He is likely to be a Hurricane in the next few days and could eventually pose a threat to the U.S.
A Strong wave the gulf of Mexico could become a Tropical Depression later today. This one would threaten Texas which is not good!
Stay tuned!
Tropical Storm Dean was born as of 11am this morning! He is likely to be a Hurricane in the next few days and could eventually pose a threat to the U.S.
A Strong wave the gulf of Mexico could become a Tropical Depression later today. This one would threaten Texas which is not good!
Stay tuned!
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Tornado Watch Issued
TORNADO WATCH ISSUED NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND UNTIL 10 PM!
Due to high shear in the atmosphere (the elements needed for potential tornadoes) and hot conditions, a Tornado watch is in effect until 10 pm this evening! This is an especially important message due to many people not monitoring weather but enjoying outdoor activities! Please be on teh look out for threatening conditions. The watch is for Maryland and Northern Virginia!
Please get the word out!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
Due to high shear in the atmosphere (the elements needed for potential tornadoes) and hot conditions, a Tornado watch is in effect until 10 pm this evening! This is an especially important message due to many people not monitoring weather but enjoying outdoor activities! Please be on teh look out for threatening conditions. The watch is for Maryland and Northern Virginia!
Please get the word out!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Risk of 100 degree heat has diminished due to abundant moisture
With very high dew points and the risk of very heavy rain showers the 100 degree heat I was concerned about has been knocked down to low to mid 90s. It will be very uncomfortable today so please stay alert to the heat and drink plenty of fluids.
If thunderstorms erupt in your area they will have very heavy rainfall and could contain severe winds.
All for now!
If thunderstorms erupt in your area they will have very heavy rainfall and could contain severe winds.
All for now!
Sunday, June 24, 2007
100 DEGEREE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY!
100 DEGREE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY!
This will be an impressive and oppressive heat wave with high Tuesday and Wednesday now looking like they could hot 100 degrees. Humidity will also be very high. It is not fun starting summer with a quick rise to the first 100 degree day! The heat should start to lose some of its grip Thursday when we have a chance of some thunderstorms. Thursday will also be uncomfortable but the additional clouds could shave some high temperature readings!
If things work right then next weekend we could see a repeat of some cooler readings like we have experienced thus far this weekend!
All for now!
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Nice Weekend . VERY HOT WEATHER ON THE WAY
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY!
It is going to be a nice dry weekend, and though it will get pretty hot Sunday, but heat in the mid and upper 90's Monday and Tuesday will be common. There will be a chance of a break in Hot temperatures including temperatures dropping to reasonable levels by next weekend. But it does appear temps will be in the 90's or a few degrees of 90 through Friday. This will be an extremely dangerous heat too as Humidity levels will be very high Monday and Tuesday!
All for now
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Severe Storms on Maryland and Northern Virginia Doorsteps!
A gusty line of severe storms is racing through Maryland and just entering Northern Virginia. High winds have been the main severe activity from these storms. They are moving fast so conditions will rapidly deteriorate for Central Maryland And Northern Virginia!
Stay Alert and listen to weather and news outlets for the latest
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.comMid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Severe weather possible today
A strong cold front will enter the region later today. The clash between the hot steamy air and this front which will bring a break in humidity and heat could produce severe storms including hail and high winds. There is a slight chance that a storm could have a tornado.
Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets fro watches and/or warnings.
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Sunday, June 17, 2007
Hot weather returns and STAYS! Heavy Storms possible Tuesday!
HAPPY HOT FATHER'S DAY!
The heat had been on a break last week but has returned and appears to be staying for the foreseeable future. Mid week we should get a break from the humid conditions but highs in the 85 to 90 range will remain and low 90's very common through Tuesday! Tuesday may also feature some severe! We will have to wait and see!
Long term a full country heat wave will be coming! Bad news and an energy drain!
Tropics could start to show a more active pattern in about a week and a half.
All for now!
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Severe Weather Again possible today
As spokes of energy come off a large Low off the east coast, another round of strong to severe storms is possible today. High Winds, Hail, and an isolated tornado are all possible.
Please stay alert to watches and/or warnings by local news and weather outlets.
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Scattered Storms today. Some Severe. Storms tomorrow and then nicer conditions
There is a good Chance of scattered storms today. Like yesterday there could be severe storms. Yesterday Central and southern Virginia saw numerous reports of High winds and some hail. I suspect more will be present today. Highs in the 80s today will lower to the 70s across the north the next few days. Warm weather will make its return starting Sunday into Monday.
All for now!
Jimmy
Sunday, June 10, 2007
Not too hot of a week thanks to a Gale Center! Could it become tropical?
Well, a very Hot last Friday has turned to a much better temperature regime! The forecast will remain all week in the low 80s! Some easterly components to the winds will keep moisture around and this could mean afternoon and early evening showers and storms. This is especially true east of the mountains and near the coastal areas. As the low drifts southward and maintains close proximity to the Gulf Stream a sub-tropical low could form. We will see!
Other possibilities in the Tropics exist as well.
All for now!
Jimmy
Other possibilities in the Tropics exist as well.
All for now!
Jimmy
Sunday, June 03, 2007
Barry aided rains will come in at 1- 2 inches at most
The speed of the system is so fast that an inch to 2 inches at most will be the most we see, though some higher amounts are possible from a few thunderstorms.
Much cooler today with highs only in the 70 to 75 degree range at best.
Again, the week will start pretty nice and then the Hazy Hot and Humid conditions will come back by next weekend! A few storms will be possible Monday and then again by next weekend.
All for now!
Much cooler today with highs only in the 70 to 75 degree range at best.
Again, the week will start pretty nice and then the Hazy Hot and Humid conditions will come back by next weekend! A few storms will be possible Monday and then again by next weekend.
All for now!
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Barry to mean rainy Sunday Night! Needed and welcome! Then a Cool down!
Very warm and muggy conditions will start to break tomorrow as Barry brings needed and some heavy rains to areas along and east of the I-95 corridor. Areas of Eastern Carolinas could see amounts up to 5" and In eastern Virginia 2-4"! The I-95 corridor will see 1-3" and areas along the foothills .5 - 1.5". Amounts will vary based on some thunderstorms which could also be severe with isolated tornadoes, especially coastal areas!
The Low from Barry will merge with a low in the Midwest area and then pump cooler air from Canada! This will NOT be long lived and a return to Hot and Humid conditions will make there return.. more stagnant air is not too far away!
There could be more tropical activity to watch in the Caribbean as well!
Busy times!
Friday, June 01, 2007
First Day of Hurricane Season! First Tropical Storm of the Season! Barry!
Andrea was Sub Tropical so this is the first real Warm Core Tropical Storm of the Season. Great for FL and GA Drought Releif!
Please Go Here for the Latest
More to Come!
Monday, May 28, 2007
Severe Weather possible again today!
Sorry for the miss yesterday for the strong line of storms that fired across northern VA and MD. Today a repeat performance is possible but storms may reach further south. Look out for strong to severe storms this afternoon some of which could contain hail.
Jimmy
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
Jimmy
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Saturday, May 26, 2007
FITTING WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND!
90s! They hit with Hazy,Hot, and Humid air! It is summer and the pool will be refreshing! Chances of thunderstorms, some with really heavy rains, will be possible through teh weekend with a better chance Monday. Tuesday looks dry and a bit cooler.
Long term is up in the air! Some thoughts would say we stay dry and normal, others say really wet and cooler!
Well, all for now!
Jimmy
Long term is up in the air! Some thoughts would say we stay dry and normal, others say really wet and cooler!
Well, all for now!
Jimmy
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Severe Storms This Afternoon
Strong storms will likely fire this afternoon in advance of a strong cold front. The biggest threat will be high winds. Hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned to news and weather outlets for watches and/or warnings!
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Saturday, May 12, 2007
True heat on Tuesday with highs approaching or into the 90s!
Today we have scattered storms some of which could become strong. Mother's Day looks beautiful in the north, but breezy as the front makes its way south. North Carolina should still see some storms possible. What will be interesting is the Sunday nigh lows will be in the 30's in mountain regions and the north, but we turn quickly warmer with areas into the 90s Tuesday especially in th south and the Coastal Plain.
A front should pass through the region Wednesday and knock highs back down to the 70s.
What happened to Andrea? Well she appears to be redeveloping and in a lower shear environment and warmer waters she just may be able to do it!
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
5/2 Severe Storms Possible in the South today
Areas South of a Fredericksburg to Charlottesville through North Carolina will run the risk of some stronger storms this afternoon. The biggest threat will be high winds although some storms could contain hail during peak heating hours.
Convection should be more moderate north of this region.
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
Convection should be more moderate north of this region.
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Friday, April 27, 2007
Severe Storms Possible this afternoon
Once the rain from this morning passes by there is a chance that the sun will be able to break through and heat areas. These areas where the heating occurs will become increasingly unstable. A strong cold front will eventually pass through the area and could spawn strong to severe storms especially in the eastern parts of the region. Please stay tuned to media and weather outlets for watches and or warnings.
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Nice Weather will end as rain chances increase.Severe Possible Friday!
April Showers on the way!
Spring Showers will be numerous starting later today and tonight and continuing through Friday. Today there is a chance of Showers and Thunderstorms. Highs will come down after today but still be warm for this afternoon. Tomorrow and Thursday highs will be only in the low 60s north and mid an upper 60s to mid 70s south due to the persistent clouds and rain chances. More thunderstorm threats will continue for the southern portion of the Mid Atlantic. As th powerful front that is providing the front running rain finally arrives Friday, numerous showers and thunderstorms could also become severe due to the strong dynamics available. The Severe Storms Prediction Center has outlined parts of the region for the potential of severe storms. See this link: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/cgi-bin/weather/hw3.cgi?forecast=probday&day=3&type=swo&alt=plot_prob&config=spcmaps,png&hwvusename=probday3_swo&spline=3
The weekend will not be as warm as last, but it looks seasonal temperature wise and it appears that the rain will clear or finish clearing by early Saturday!
All for now!
Spring Showers will be numerous starting later today and tonight and continuing through Friday. Today there is a chance of Showers and Thunderstorms. Highs will come down after today but still be warm for this afternoon. Tomorrow and Thursday highs will be only in the low 60s north and mid an upper 60s to mid 70s south due to the persistent clouds and rain chances. More thunderstorm threats will continue for the southern portion of the Mid Atlantic. As th powerful front that is providing the front running rain finally arrives Friday, numerous showers and thunderstorms could also become severe due to the strong dynamics available. The Severe Storms Prediction Center has outlined parts of the region for the potential of severe storms. See this link: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/cgi-bin/weather/hw3.cgi?forecast=probday&day=3&type=swo&alt=plot_prob&config=spcmaps,png&hwvusename=probday3_swo&spline=3
The weekend will not be as warm as last, but it looks seasonal temperature wise and it appears that the rain will clear or finish clearing by early Saturday!
All for now!
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Warmth on the Horizon
It is starting to look like we will warm! Long range models are looking rather warm and drier for the next week time frame. Until then, we slowly climb out of the system that has been plaguing us with colder air the last 2 weeks slowly moves away. This starts with an Upper level low slowly moving over the region Thursday causing some rain showers. Temperatures stay in the 5 to 10 degree below normal range until then. Friday looks like the best day for sun to really return and I am hopeful that the weekend sees temp normal and maybe finishing above normal!
If all goes as it appears, next week will be above normal with temperatures and 80 or above could be possible. See the long range forecast from the NWS here: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/cgi-bin/weather/hw3.cgi?config=&forecast=pass&pass=outlook&outlook=1&type=temp
All for now!
One last note: My thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the awful situation at Virginia Tech.
If all goes as it appears, next week will be above normal with temperatures and 80 or above could be possible. See the long range forecast from the NWS here: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/cgi-bin/weather/hw3.cgi?config=&forecast=pass&pass=outlook&outlook=1&type=temp
All for now!
One last note: My thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the awful situation at Virginia Tech.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Storm Winding Down
The storm has started weakening rapidly. This has diminished winds and the pull down of colder air. The snow forecast is cancelled and the Wind Adisory will end at Midnight.
All for now!
Snow Showers acrross Northern Regions looking likely!
After sunset, as precipitation continues to wrap back around the large low pressure, a mixture of rain and snow showers will turn to snow showers in the Northern areas (Northern Third of Virginia and Maryland). Some showers may be briefly heavy!
Stay alert to as snow showers will cause detereorating visibilities at times with high winds it could be rough driving!!
High Wind warning stays in effect until 2 am. I am expecting either a continuation or a wind Advisory until tomorrow morning.
Jimmy
Forecast Discussion: Windy Conditions will persist for the next 24 Hours. Today will be the worst part of it
the Nor'easter has really wound up strong as of this morning! The pressure is as low as a Hurricane and winds have gusted that high along the coast of New England! High Wind warnings or Advisories continue through today and there will be many power outages.
As the week progresses a slow climb in temperatures is expected with near to slightly Normal temps possible this weekend. This time of year always makes me nervous when a nice forecast arises for a weekend! We have had many weekend spoilers this spring and so it would not surprise me to see another! RIGHT NOW though it looks pretty decent!
So, after the next 24 hours of winds a somewhat sunny and slowly milder forecast arises.
All for now!
As the week progresses a slow climb in temperatures is expected with near to slightly Normal temps possible this weekend. This time of year always makes me nervous when a nice forecast arises for a weekend! We have had many weekend spoilers this spring and so it would not surprise me to see another! RIGHT NOW though it looks pretty decent!
So, after the next 24 hours of winds a somewhat sunny and slowly milder forecast arises.
All for now!
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Severe Weather and Heavy rains followed by high winds tomorrow!
Heavy rains will continue, but become less widespread. Southeastern VA is under a Tornado watch! Please stay tuned to local weather outlets for warnings ! Many flood warnings have been issued!
High winds will visit us tomorrow!
High winds will visit us tomorrow!
Friday, April 13, 2007
Nor'easter on tap for Sunday Into Monday. Heavy Rains, Winds, Mountain snow, coastal floods and very low tides!
The most important note here is that this is a big system and the rains and high winds will likely be the concern around most of the Mid Atlantic.
Highlights:
1. Areas from the Virginia border and southward could see severe thunderstorms with some tornadoes possible later Saturday and early Sunday.
2.Very heavy rain for the Piedmont of Virginia up the 95 corridor with areas receiving 1-3" in Lower Virginia up to 3"+ amounts in Northeastern Virginia and Eastern Maryland up through Pennsylvania
3. Winds will become more and more of an issue Sunday as the Low gets very strong just off the Delmarva area. This will mean power outages and some structural damage possible.
4. Snows will really start to impact the Mountains Later Sunday into Monday with areas seeing 4-8" with isolated higher elevations seeing 12"+. The other factor here will be the high winds (Wind Warning Criteria likely) causing almost blizzard like conditions and tree damage.
5. Coastal Flooding may be somewhat limited, but Bay side flooding is possible as the storm continues high NW winds for a long period of time. this could also mean very low tides with teh offshore winds!
This storm will bring a blizzard to Interior Northern Pennsylvania up through the Middle of New York and New England! Expect travel issues Sunday and Monday from grounded planes due to high winds and snow!
There is a slight possibility that colder air could eventually wrap into the system and cause a brief change to or mix with snow in the Piedmont of Virginia as well. NO accumulations expected.
All for now!
Highlights:
1. Areas from the Virginia border and southward could see severe thunderstorms with some tornadoes possible later Saturday and early Sunday.
2.Very heavy rain for the Piedmont of Virginia up the 95 corridor with areas receiving 1-3" in Lower Virginia up to 3"+ amounts in Northeastern Virginia and Eastern Maryland up through Pennsylvania
3. Winds will become more and more of an issue Sunday as the Low gets very strong just off the Delmarva area. This will mean power outages and some structural damage possible.
4. Snows will really start to impact the Mountains Later Sunday into Monday with areas seeing 4-8" with isolated higher elevations seeing 12"+. The other factor here will be the high winds (Wind Warning Criteria likely) causing almost blizzard like conditions and tree damage.
5. Coastal Flooding may be somewhat limited, but Bay side flooding is possible as the storm continues high NW winds for a long period of time. this could also mean very low tides with teh offshore winds!
This storm will bring a blizzard to Interior Northern Pennsylvania up through the Middle of New York and New England! Expect travel issues Sunday and Monday from grounded planes due to high winds and snow!
There is a slight possibility that colder air could eventually wrap into the system and cause a brief change to or mix with snow in the Piedmont of Virginia as well. NO accumulations expected.
All for now!
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Major Spring Storm to affect area with very heavy rains, high winds, coastal flooding, Snow?
A very serious storm system appears to about to take an aim on the Mid Atlantic. Starting tomorrow conditions will all start to come together for a action packed weekend of weather!
The threats:
1. Heavy Rains/Flooding: Would not be surprised to see 3 to 6" of RAIN especially east of I -95
2. Heavy winds: Friday will be breezy and cool. Saturday will see an increase in winds as the storm begins taking shape. Sunday and Monday will be raw and windy with Coastal flooding a real possibility
3. Coastal Flooding: A prolonged time of heavy rains and winds will cause beach erosion and and flooding. Please stay tuned to news and radio outlets for your region
4. Severe Storms: The Best threat here would be far Southeastern Virginia and North Carolina. It is a threat though that should be monitored!
5. SNOW? Yes, I would especially be concerned in teh higher elevations, but, if dynamics really become strong, and they very well could, a switch over to all snow could occur for the immediate piedmont up to the 95 corridor before ending!
This is a serious storm and many watches and warnings will be coming out the next few days. Please heed news/radio/and weather outlets for the potential dangerous conditions this weekend!
All for now!
The threats:
1. Heavy Rains/Flooding: Would not be surprised to see 3 to 6" of RAIN especially east of I -95
2. Heavy winds: Friday will be breezy and cool. Saturday will see an increase in winds as the storm begins taking shape. Sunday and Monday will be raw and windy with Coastal flooding a real possibility
3. Coastal Flooding: A prolonged time of heavy rains and winds will cause beach erosion and and flooding. Please stay tuned to news and radio outlets for your region
4. Severe Storms: The Best threat here would be far Southeastern Virginia and North Carolina. It is a threat though that should be monitored!
5. SNOW? Yes, I would especially be concerned in teh higher elevations, but, if dynamics really become strong, and they very well could, a switch over to all snow could occur for the immediate piedmont up to the 95 corridor before ending!
This is a serious storm and many watches and warnings will be coming out the next few days. Please heed news/radio/and weather outlets for the potential dangerous conditions this weekend!
All for now!
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Unrelenting Colder than Normal temps continue!
Summary: We had some great early warm weather a week ago, but things have turned much much colder (as we all know) and it does not really look to go back above normal for at least another week, if not a week and a half! In the meantime, a potent storm will ride up west of the Appalachian mountains. Heavy rain and some wind will likely accompany! This will be tomorrow afternoon into the evening. We dry out and look to go to a closer to normal (though still below) through the weekend with yet more rains possible both Saturday and Sunday. Next week doe not look as cold as this one started off being, but highs remaining between 5 and 10 degrees below normal does seem to be the way things will play out!
Not the fun Spring forecast by any means!
All for now!
Not the fun Spring forecast by any means!
All for now!
Thursday, April 05, 2007
4/5 DC/MD/VA SNOW ALERT
First time in the last 4 years I am issuing a SNOW alert in April! CRAZY!!!!! This one is an odd one where areas east of 95 from Richmond up to Baltimore. The place that really could get some accumulations....YES.. Accumulations, would really be the eastern Shore! It sounds crazy but areas could see a dusting to as much as 3 inches! Areas along the I-95 would see a potential dusting. This would happen tomorrow night!
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Tuesday, April 03, 2007
4/4/07 Severe weather possible tomorrow!
A strong cold front will come through tomorrow and turn us back to winter through the weekend! The strong front could easily bring strong winds and hail with it!
YES.. there is a possibility of snow showers Saturday! Do not be surprised in northern VA/ MD and higher elevations! Temps will be COLD Saturday!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
YES.. there is a possibility of snow showers Saturday! Do not be surprised in northern VA/ MD and higher elevations! Temps will be COLD Saturday!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Monday, March 19, 2007
Weather WILL Warm... Yes I may have Spring Fever Friday!
As I told my boss today, this "Friday LOOKS GOOD" for golf as temps should make it into the 70s up north and even 80s in the south.
First a Pesky front this evening will come through and cause some showers. In New England this could be their last shot at a snow. Temperatures will again be almost the same as they were today for Tomorrow. Then Wednesday a little Dip below norms (5-10 degrees)... But do not fret as temps will jump above Normal Thursday and then Friday Saturday and Sunday *COULD* be beautiful..
FLIES in the ointment for Spring! A beautiful weekend forecast this far out and this early in Spring always has me concerned. I mean, the forecast models look decent, but the Ocean's colder air and the dreaded Back Door Cold front always concerns me! This occurs when wind comes off the ocean and causes clouds and colder weather east of the mountains! I am not saying this will happen this weekend, but ALWAYS be on guard this time of year for it to mess up a sunny and warm forecast!
All for now!
Jimmy
First a Pesky front this evening will come through and cause some showers. In New England this could be their last shot at a snow. Temperatures will again be almost the same as they were today for Tomorrow. Then Wednesday a little Dip below norms (5-10 degrees)... But do not fret as temps will jump above Normal Thursday and then Friday Saturday and Sunday *COULD* be beautiful..
FLIES in the ointment for Spring! A beautiful weekend forecast this far out and this early in Spring always has me concerned. I mean, the forecast models look decent, but the Ocean's colder air and the dreaded Back Door Cold front always concerns me! This occurs when wind comes off the ocean and causes clouds and colder weather east of the mountains! I am not saying this will happen this weekend, but ALWAYS be on guard this time of year for it to mess up a sunny and warm forecast!
All for now!
Jimmy
Weather WILL Warm... Yes I may have Spring Fever Friday!
As I told my boss today, this "Friday LOOKS GOOD" for golf as temps should make it into the 70s up north and even 80s in the south.
First a Pesky front this evening will come through and cause some showers. In New England this could be their last shot at a snow. Temperatures will again be almost the same as they were today for Tomorrow. Then Wednesday a little Dip below norms (5-10 degrees)... But do not fret as temps will jump above Normal Thursday and then Friday Saturday and Sunday *COULD* be beautiful..
FLIES in the ointment for Spring! A beautiful weekend forecast this far out and this early in Spring always has me concerned. I mean, the forecast models look decent, but the Ocean's colder air and the dreaded Back Door Cold front always concerns me! This occurs when wind comes off the ocean and causes clouds and colder weather east of the mountains! I am not saying this will happen this weekend, but ALWAYS be on guard this time of year for it to mess up a sunny and warm forecast!
All for now!
Jimmy
First a Pesky front this evening will come through and cause some showers. In New England this could be their last shot at a snow. Temperatures will again be almost the same as they were today for Tomorrow. Then Wednesday a little Dip below norms (5-10 degrees)... But do not fret as temps will jump above Normal Thursday and then Friday Saturday and Sunday *COULD* be beautiful..
FLIES in the ointment for Spring! A beautiful weekend forecast this far out and this early in Spring always has me concerned. I mean, the forecast models look decent, but the Ocean's colder air and the dreaded Back Door Cold front always concerns me! This occurs when wind comes off the ocean and causes clouds and colder weather east of the mountains! I am not saying this will happen this weekend, but ALWAYS be on guard this time of year for it to mess up a sunny and warm forecast!
All for now!
Jimmy
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Weather slowly turning to warmth
The weather should remain pretty chilly through mid week. A front will provide a chance of showers Monday. Milder and above normal temperatures by the end of the week!!
SUMMARY: Kind of wild March we are having. The total I had on Friday night was around and inch, and, for the most part my forecast was pretty valid. The higher elevations definitely had more than my original thoughts! We start with another front coming through Monday. temperatures will be about normal for the region. Wednesday appears to dip a little in temps and then a warm up as we head towards the weekend although showers could visit us next Saturday.
As we head into Spring Severe Weather Alerts should take over and no more winter weather alerts! The Spring will likely be active for the Middle part of the country and not as much in the east. If the current forecasted and developing La Nina pattern develops a dry summer may be on tap as time wears on!
All for now!
Jimmy
Weather slowly turning to warmth
The weather should remain pretty chilly through mid week. A front will provide a chance of showers Monday. Milder and above normal temperatures by the end of the week!!
SUMMARY: Kind of wild March we are having. The total I had on Friday night was around and inch, and, for the most part my forecast was pretty valid. The higher elevations definitely had more than my original thoughts! We start with another front coming through Monday. temperatures will be about normal for the region. Wednesday appears to dip a little in temps and then a warm up as we head towards the weekend although showers could visit us next Saturday.
As we head into Spring Severe Weather Alerts should take over and no more winter weather alerts! The Spring will likely be active for the Middle part of the country and not as much in the east. If the current forecasted and developing La Nina pattern develops a dry summer may be on tap as time wears on!
All for now!
Jimmy
Thursday, March 15, 2007
3/15 DC/MD/VA Accumulating Snows are Possible
Accumulating Snows are Possible
Accumulating Snows are possible in Areas West of Washington DC up to Baltimore tomorrow night. Areas could see 1-4" with higher totals in the higher elevations.
This will come after a very heavy rainfall and warm ground temperatures should offset some of the total potentials!
This could change, but it may actually become a snowier forecast than a less snowy one!
All for now!
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
WInter Weather Alert: 1-3" more likely
After reviewing forecasting models this morning I have lowered my totals to a general 1-3" in the area immediate and just to the west and north of the Washington DC, to Baltimore Maryland line. Some areas may see up to 4", but the general rule will be 1-2 inches with isolated 3 inch amounts. It still will be snowing during the morning commute and the ground has really cooled due to temps in the teens and lower 20s last night. Trace amount north of Charlottesville to Fredericksburg up to the DC metro area
Stay tuned!
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Monday, March 05, 2007
Winter Weather Alert! Winter is not over! 2-4" snows Possible Wednesday!
A moderate snow of 2-4 inches is possible accross Maryland and Far Northern Virginia on Wednesday! 1-3" is possible North of Fredericksburg up to Washington DC. In th DC area 2-4" is possible and maybe up to 3-5" for Maryland. Snow will fall during the Wednesday Morning commute!
Things could change so stay tuned!
I thought winter was about done too! Go figure!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARMER ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL BE IT FOR WINTER 2006 - 2007
Summary: So.. this is how it ends. Many in Central Virginia and eastward never really had a snow this year.. Northern VA finished below normal, but had some late action that helped it not be so bad. Colder start to the week will end milder. This time, as things get warmer the truly cold air retreats and the pattern goes through a major shift! 60s and some 70s could visit as soon as next weekend in teh south. 50s to lower 60s in the north!
http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/
Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.
NEED a Great Host! Try Vodahost ! Their plan you cannot beat!!! 24000 MB of space, unlimited domains, unlimited email accounts, unlimited MySqL! HOW MUCH? $7.95 a month!!http://www.vodahost.com/partner/idevaffiliate.php?id=4524Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.
Friday, March 02, 2007
Severe Weather still possible Southeastern VA
I have been behind the ball here, but the NWS has posted a Tornado Watch for Southeastern VA and Eastern North Carolina through 11am! There is a line of convection down that way too! Please stay alert to radio and news outlets!
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Very heavy rains with some thunder! Some flooding possible!
Summary: Spring storms will blanket the middle of the country and the south while a triple point low rains like crazy washing winter snow and ice away! Tomorrow rain will overspread the area and tomorrow night be heavy at times with thunder in the mix!
Current amounts range from 1-2" but i feel there may be 3-4" totals in parts of the region. No snow this time! Temperatures Friday will be "warmish" with many 60s and upper 50s. Colder air will come back for several days and then maybe a true warm up towards next weekend!
Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/
Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.
NEED a Great Host! Try Vodahost ! Their plan you cannot beat!!! 24000 MB of space, unlimited domains, unlimited email accounts, unlimited MySqL! HOW MUCH? $7.95 a month!!http://www.vodahost.com/partner/idevaffiliate.php?id=4524Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
MILDER WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. SIGNS OF A COLDER PERIOD AND EVEN MORE SNOW CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
Summary: Milder air this week with even a severe thereat NC and Southern VA. Temps in the 50s with 60s in NC. Next weeke could turn colder according to some models or really get mild. Which Model will win?
http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/
Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.
NEED a Great Host! Try Vodahost ! Their plan you cannot beat!!! 24000 MB of space, unlimited domains, unlimited email accounts, unlimited MySqL! HOW MUCH? $7.95 a month!!http://www.vodahost.com/partner/idevaffiliate.php?id=4524Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Snowfall ended and now just rain..some freezing rain.
Quite the Surprise! Sorry I did not update today, but, quite honestly, I went out and played! Exciting winter event with the most snow in the region this winter! I mentioned in a post in the forum that there could be heavier snow up Maryland, well, it came south and many in Virginia saw some good snow! I measured a little over 5" on the deck before the rain. Reports up to 10" in higher elevations! Exciting!
So it was a miss, but an enjoyable one for me and beats Ice any day!
There is the "Potential" for more mixture later this week, but right now, I would not bet on it!
Saturday, February 24, 2007
DC/MD/VA Icy Mess on Sunday
DC/MD/VA Icy Mess on Sunday
Sleet and Freezing Rain event for the areas of Harrisonburg to just west of Leesburg up to north of Baltimore. Northern Maryland west of 95 closer to the Frederick Maryland area could see a burst of heavy snow before a mix. 1-3" of slop 20 miles either side of the line discussed, but the heavy snow areas could see 2-4" with isolated 6"
A mix is possible all the way down to Richmond and west to Roanoke with areas just east of teh Mountains seeing the most whereas most areas will see a switch to plain rain along the I-95 corridor . Draw a line from Roanoke up to Charlottesville and straight up to Dulles Airport to BWI and areas east of this should see a change over early enough to be a nuisance. The Immediate valleys of the Apps up to Charlottesville will see enough for storm warning criteria.
All I have for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
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Sleet and Freezing Rain event for the areas of Harrisonburg to just west of Leesburg up to north of Baltimore. Northern Maryland west of 95 closer to the Frederick Maryland area could see a burst of heavy snow before a mix. 1-3" of slop 20 miles either side of the line discussed, but the heavy snow areas could see 2-4" with isolated 6"
A mix is possible all the way down to Richmond and west to Roanoke with areas just east of teh Mountains seeing the most whereas most areas will see a switch to plain rain along the I-95 corridor . Draw a line from Roanoke up to Charlottesville and straight up to Dulles Airport to BWI and areas east of this should see a change over early enough to be a nuisance. The Immediate valleys of the Apps up to Charlottesville will see enough for storm warning criteria.
All I have for now!
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Friday, February 23, 2007
SLEETY/ICY MESS for Northern VA up through Marylyand and PA snows
Sorry I have been delayed on posting.. it does appear that a Moderate Icing event will unfold Early Sunday morning. A mixture of first snow, then sleet and freezing rain will visit the region again. There is a possibility of moderate icing! Much about this storm could change and there are hints at some colder air at start which could mean some real snow, but right now, sleet and freezing rain look to be the main precip type. The main locations again will be 20 miles either side of a line from just north of Charlottesville to just west of Leesburg, northeast up to Baltimore County in Maryland stretching up to Philadelphia. Snow is possible North of these areas in Maryland, but especially Pennsylvania.
Much more to be considered and more details tomorrow!
Again, this is for Sunday, though freezing drizzle could be occurring Sunday night into Monday morning.
All for now!
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Saturday, February 17, 2007
SERIOUS COLD DAYS ARE ALMOST A MEMORY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS WHAT APPEARS TO BE MILDER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON TODAY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW WEDNESDAY. THEN MILDER 50S MAYBE EVEN A 60 DEGREE READING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
Summary: The serious cold days look limited now. we have made it through the deepest part of winter when we usually get our biggest snow. We missed teh big snows from the last storm, but New England was hammered with as much as 30" of snow! A dying clipper will traverse the area and re-establish slightly colder conditions through Monday and then a then upwards on temperatures. There COULD be a mix of rain and snow Wednesday Night and/or Thursday, but odds favor rain except in the Mountains. After this, teh pattern changes set up up for milder, above normal temperatures!
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Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.
Monday, February 12, 2007
2/12 ICY MESS ON TAP! SNOW AMOUNTS REDUCED
SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM POSSIBLE
Well, with models and an imperfect science it is hard to get forecasting right! Here we go with what appears to be a major Icing Event the majority of which looks like it will be Tuesday Night into Wednesday. For tonight into tomorrow light snow with a general 1-4" accumulation could occur from a Roanoke to Charlttesville to Fredericksburg to Baltimore line and areas 20 miles south and east of that line. Some mixing with rain is likely at onset. Tuesday would be a light snow changing to sleet and even rain for Roanoke to Fredericksburg to south and east of Baltimore. Areas from Charlottesville to Washington DC to Baltimore will see a changeover to sleet and then Freezing rain Tuesday evening as heavier precipitation takes hold. Right now the distinct possibility exists for as much as 3/4" to even 1" of ice! The issue will be.. is it sleet or freezing rain. The further north and west may split totals between sleet and freezing rain, but 20 miles either side of and north of the Charlottesville to Washington DC to Baltimore areas could see a significant Ice Storm!
Please stay tuned to Media and Weather Outlets.
Sorry, no time to draw out thoughts this morning on a map.
BTW.. thing ** COULD ** change as we are still a ways away from the main storm system. I will be watching trends and reporting on them especially in the Forum.
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Sunday, February 11, 2007
2/11 HEAVY WINTER STORM TUESDAY
HEAVY SNOW STORM WITH POSSIBLE ICING
Things are lining up for a major Winter Storm. Especially north of Fredericksburg . Areas could see up to a foot and some places more especially in Maryland. MANY factors could change who get the biggest snows and even ice storm possibilities. Best Chances seem to be Washington, DC to Charlottesville and north as well as up to Baltimore and North. Ice could really become an issue in the transition area.
This one is a serious one. Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets.
More to come!
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.comThis one is a serious one. Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets.
More to come!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Saturday, February 10, 2007
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
2/6 Light Snow event tonight will ALL stick!
Light Snow Tonight!
A light snow event tonight will drop a 1-3" swath of snow mainly cutting across the central part of Virginia. Light snow will quickly stick to all surfaces though as the ground and roads are so cold. Areas draw a line horizontal from Roanoke to Richmond and then from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg and the areas between and along those lines have the best chance of the 3" totals. Areas north of that line will see totals back off to 1" in Northern VA and a dusting in Maryland, and south will quickly drop to just a dusting.
Despite this, the very cold ground could make tomorrow morning the worst winter weather commute we have had this winter! Be careful!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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Thursday, February 01, 2007
2/1 Winter Weather Threat: Canceled!
MAYBE some pockets in SW Va and western Piedmont south of Charottesville but by and large just spotty showers, some snow, some sleet. This one was not too big (at least up in VA) but was for western NC and SC!
Sorry all! Yes, there is another storm possible in about 1 week! we will see! The real story, VERY COLD next week!
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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2/1 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert
2 waves of precipitation, Snow to a mix, but maybe a good amount of snow for Higher elevations in SW VA
North of Roanoke in the Mountains towards SW VA and Northeast up to just SW of Charlottesville could see the most snow with 3-6" shot.
Areas along I-95 to 30 miles east, 1-2" then a mix. Precip amounts could approach Winter Storm warning of .25" along I-95 and west up to about Ashland.
1-3" of Snow north of here along I-95 up to Baltimore and ares 20 miles either side of I-95. Again, a mix tomorrow night.
1-4" west of the I-95 area from Western Loudoun and Frederick Count MD above down to Charlottesville. Closer to 4" in the southern areas of that region, less towards the MD/VA Border.
Models are split tonight! Thus the larger ranges. This one has some surprise potential especially looking at the large snow sheild on Radar.
Tweaking likely tomorrow, but light snow may overspread most of the area by morning in the south and by noon, Nortehrn VA and by 3pm in Maryland.
All for now!
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3
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