Getting back on track after Hanna Flooding! More heavy rains possible later this week!

I have been really busy as usual. At the height of Tropical action I was in Florida. Of course, Hanna hit and caused flooding in my house which sat for 6 days until we got home. In less that 24 hours I had to turn around and head to Phoenix AZ and came back and now I am watching the water in the forecast and see a potential BIG event later this week! We do not need more water, but I do need to know if the things we did to avoid the water will work. We lost some stuff, but it could have been a lot worse!

Time to get back into the forecasts! -Tropical Madness

What an active time we have in the tropics. My hope is that Gustav wil not gain any strength again! He came down from a peak of 150 mph when he crossed Cuba. That being said, he is still very powerful system and he is going to come in west of New Orleans. He will still be powerful and my hope is that teh surge is not going too bad. My gut says, no matter what, New Orleans will be in bad shape!

I will start being more vigilent in my forum http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1499.0

Now, Hanna! TS Hanna is starting to show a threat to the east coast! This could be a threat later next week. You can find more on Hanna here: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1500.0

That being said, the Eastern part of teh US is about to experience a heat wave whic will include 90s again for our region. That ridge is the same one that is pushing Gustav to move teh way he is. So look for a return to summer like conditions especially starting Tuesday. Today and tommorrow look nice!

Of note, the tropics look like they have 2 more disturbnces that could become storms in the next few days.

All for now!

Severe Storms likely today

A disturbance will move through the region today and cause storms which could be severe. Very heavy rains, hail, and high winds, and hail are the biggest threats. There could be some isolated tornadoes, especially in the east. Stay tuned to weather outlets for watches or warnings! All for now Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Nice day on tap- Storms possible tomorrow

Beautiful weather will be on tap today! Highs in the low mid 80s and low humidity.

Tomorrow will see a potential storm complex that could cause training of storms and flooding rains for northern areas and isolated severe storms.

All for now!

Severe weather possible this afternoon and evening

Severe weather is a strong possibility later this afternoon and evening. Hail and damaging winds are the biggest threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. The good news is that this is the beginning of a weather shift and very nice conditions are becoming more likely for this weekend! Stay tuned to your weather outlets for watches and/or warnings. All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Severe is possible today

Several showers and storms shoud erupt this afternoon throughout teh area and some may bcome severe. Today's threat would be high winds and hail.   Please stay to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings.   All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Heavy rains and severe weather

Ongoing scattered thunderstorms with locally intense rains will become more widespread today. The atmosphere is extremely saturated and storms have the capability of dropping several inches of rain in some locations which would cause flash flooding. On top of this, the atmosphere is unstable enough that damaging winds and hail in some storms is very likely! Please stay alert today! Stay tuned to weather outlets and NEVER drive through water that you see crossing over a street! This will be a very busy weather day! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Fairly high chance of severe weather

Severe storms could affect the area by early afternoon. Heavy rains and high winds appear likely. Please stay tuned to weather outlets for updates and potential watches and/or warnings. All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Some severe storms likely today with heavy rains

A cold front will push through the region the next 24 hours and likely bring heavy rains and thunderstorms which could be severe.Please  stay tuned to weather outlets for Watches and/or warnings this afternoon. All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Not the best July 4th forecast!

With increasing clouds and humidity, a front and a disturbance will link up later this afternoon and cause rain, some of which could be heavy, for the next 24 - 36 hours. There could be some localized flooding and some storms could be severe late today and tomorrow. Rain will be locally heavy where some storms train along the same areas!

Storminess will be more widespread this evening into the night and tomorrow.

Storms will continue to be possible through Tuesday and then finally a clearing front on Wednesday.

The Atlantic tropics gave birth to Bertha yesterday. She has strengthened, but will likely not pose a threat to land. It is possible she could reach minimal Hurricane, but right now she is expected to stay just below that strength. The Sea Surface temps are not the best for her to strengthen.

See the latest here:
http://www.midatlanticweather.com/tropical/tropics.htm

All for now!

Low humidity, but teh temps are climbing. July 4th has a better shot at rain!

Temps definitely will be warmer today as they climb to the 90 degree mark for most. Humidity really returns tomorrow and the 4th now has a pretty decent chance of showers and storms.

Tropics are starting to look interesting with a potential depression forming!

More to come!

Beautiful day on tap with low humidity and pleasant temps

You do not get too many like this in the midst of summer! Enjoy the upper 70s to lower 80s with plenty of sun. Temps go to the mid 80s tomorrow and towards the upper 80s later in the week. Friday through Sunday look seasonably warm and humid with a chance of storms each day!

 

All for now!

Bit humid today with scattered storms possible - nice tomorrow. Turning Seasonal by July 4th!

A disturbance will move through today and could cause some showers and thunderstorms. It is possible that the storms could be briefly severe with high winds or hail. Tomorrow the weather cools dramatically with highs in the 70s and low to mid 80s at best! Temps will begin an upward movement, to seasonal 85 - 90 by this weekend when afternoon and evening storms will again be possible. For now, Tuesday though Thursday look dry with temps pretty much in the mid 80s after tomorrow.

All for now!

Still a bit humid tody with isolated storms - Very nice tomorrow!

A disturbance will move through today and could cause some showers and thunderstorms. It is possible that the storms could be briefly severe with high winds or hail. Tomorrow the weather cools dramatically with highs in the 70s and low to mid 80s at best! Temps will begin an upward movement, to seasonal 85 - 90 by this weekend when afternoon and evening storms will again be possible. For now, Tuesday though Thursday look dry with temps pretty much in the mid 80s after tomorrow.

All for now!

Severe likely today with numerous showers and storms

Storms will develop and persist through the afternoon. The atmosphere will be very unstable so severe weather will be likely to develop. The biggest risk will be high winds. Hail and isolated tornadoes could also occur.

Stay tuned to news and radio outlets for watches or warnings.

All for now!

Hot and Humid with Afternoon Storms. Hot weekend with storm threat increasing through Sunday

Today we have a better chance of convection to fire due to some better triggers in the atmosphere. Enough instability exists for some storms to become severe with the best threat being rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s (Cooler in the mountains).

As a Frontal system approaches and slowly moves through the area Sunday and exits slowly Monday, showers and storms become more likely and the threat of Sever on both days does exist.

Temperatures and humidity will come way down on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Temps slowly warm as we head towards the 4th of July.

All for now!

Definitely warmer and starting to be more humid today. Isolated storms tomorrow could have some severe elements

We will see the first steps of a hotter and more humid pattern that will last through the weekend today. Temps will reach upper 80s and low 90s, and as the day progresses the humidity levels will start to increase as well. Tomorrow, a slight chance of storms develops and lasts into the evening. The northern areas of Virginia and Maryland could see isolated storms and some could become severe. This will need to be watched. Temps should be 90 or above state wide tomorrow and reach the low to mid 90s Friday. More storms are possible Friday and now both Saturday and Sunday should have a decent shot at showers and thunderstorms in a humid air mass.

Next week looks like a cool down again to below seasonal levels.

All for now.

Tranquil and slowly warming weather the next few days. Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.

Numerous storms did affect thearea last evening and some had hail and wind. That storm has headed east and we are headed for a few days of calm, though a definite warming trend after today. Highs today will be just slightly below normal and humidity levels will be very comfortable. Tomorrow, warmer and more humid conditions will arrive and that should continue and become even more humid Thursday. Friday, we should see a chance of storms and that chance will continue Saturday and increase in numbers Sunday.

 

The Tropical Atlantic remains tranquil for now.

 

All for now.

 

Afternoon storms with scattered Severe!

The atmosphere is very unstable so afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely today. Some will be severe and will likely produce damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Stay tuned to weather outlets for watches and/or warnings this afternoon.

We will see more tranquil weather the next few days and then summer heat and humidity will return Thursday!

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Severe weather very possible today!

An approaching frontal system will increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms could become severe and the threat exists for hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes. Please stay tuned to local weather outlets for watches and warnings.

Severe weather could also be an issue for part of the day tomorrow. More to come on this.

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Storm potentia increases this afternoon and overnight. Seveer threat Sunday and Monday.

A more humid airmass is now in place and warmer temperatures. This will combine with a trough east of the mountains today and an approaching front tomorrow and produce showers and storms. Isolated storms could be severe today, and definitely a chance tomorrow and Monday.

Temperatures will be in the mid an upper 80s the next few days.

All for now!

Jimmy

Nice weather, but daily thunder chances

Temps will stay nice, and start to warm into the weekend. Highs mid 70s to low 80s today, warming to 80 to 85 this weekend. A daily risk of afternoon showers and storms with the best threat now being saturday.
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Nice weather to continue but there is a wrinkle

It will continue unseasonally nice today, but, a small disturbance could kick off isolated storms, some could contain hail and high wind. These should be isolated, so most should be good! Tommorow could be very similar!
Temps look to be the coolest today with mid and upper 70s! After this temps will be 80 to 85 for the most part!
Sunday looks like the next chance of more organized showers and storms.
All for now.
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Storms today. Some Severe possible. Nice Sunday.. Storms Monday and almost cool next week!

Today will be hot and sticky. Scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Heavy winds will be the most likely issue. Tomorrow will be less humid and warm. Monday will also present a chance of showers and storms, some of which could be severe as well.

Then we really see a cool air mass with highs mainly in the 70s.

More later.

Definitely hotter today and tomorrow. Severe Storms are possible tomorrow - Next week looks beautiful!

The forecast will turn hot and sticky today and tomorrow with temps cracking the 90 degree mark and humidity on the increase. There is a chance that tomorrow, when thunderstorms are expected, that some could be strong or severe. Sunday looks very nice with highs in the mid to upper 80s with less humidity. Another front passes through Monday with another chance of some showers and storms and then weather looks to dry out and cool to 70s to low 80s at best through Thursday!

All for now!

Weather continues nice. A stretch of cooler, but rain may make it not that great!

I was excited yesterday to see an extended forecast that would have nicer weather. Unfortunately, Monday through Wednesday of next week, though cooler, may also be plagued by showers and thunderstorm chances every day! Temperatures in the 70s seems more likely Tuesday into Wednesday but the chance of showers and storms will also be there.

For now, today looks like a copy of yesterday with less breezes. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer, and some humidity will creep back into the area. Saturday afternoon could have thunderstorms and then Sunday looks nice. the best chances for Shower and storms early next week is Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday could end up dry, but too early to tell!

Temps will be near or in the low 90s tomorrow, 80s Saturday, mid 80s Sunday and Monday, and 75 to 83 most places Tuesday and Wednesday next week!

All for now!

Much nicer weather!

Many powerful storms knocked out power and caused tons of lightning last night. Much nicer stretch of weather now! Highs will be mid 80s today and tomorrow. Bit warmer Friday. Rain possibilities are there for Saturday and a much cooler air mass for Sunday through early next week with highs by Tuesday in the 70s to low 80s at most!

All for now!

Jimmy

HOT weather will give way to strong storms

The very hot weather we have been experiencing will last one day more, but give way to showers and storms later today. These storms could contain strong winds, hail, and even isolated tornadoes towards the Chesapeake bay region. Please stay tuned to local news and weather outlets and try and stay cool for one more day.

All for now!

Jimmy

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Severe weather with Tornadoes!

Severe thunderstorms are likely or occurring for many locations! The atmosphere is primed for some severe weather including tornadic activity. Warnings have been issued in many locations in Southwestern Virginia! This is serious and you need to stay informed of the weather this evening!

Very heavy rains are also very likely! Please be careful and stay tuned to your news and weather outlets!

 

Jimmy

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

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Severe weather and then SNOW?

A strong cold front will approach teh are today and produce some strong to possibly severe storms. The biggest threat will be strong winds, but some risk is there for isolated tornadoes. Please stay tuned too radio and news outlets today.

The SNOW potential is real for late in the Weekend and early next week. So much time to evaluate, but a real threat nonetheless an it could be significant.

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

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SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY AND HEAVY RAINS

SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY AND HEAVY RAINS

If you have been listening to the news and weather you will know many areas are under a tornado watch. I thought I should post and say that this is a higher risk than normal for more serious tornadoes. If there are any they are likely to be isolated, some may be strong. This is not a night to disregard this potential. Severe storms are also firing and producing winds in excess of 70 mph! This is a serious situation and I would ask that you pay attention to your news and radio outlets into the night!

In addition, very heavy rainfall could result in flooding. Remember, water is powerful and can sweep even larger vehicles off the road.

 

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Looks like rain and maybe some snow for Southwestern parts of the area! Sunny day now gonna turn cloudy!

Today was supposed to be all sunny, but a disturbance is headed into the southern parts of the region and will likely bring a cloudy afternoon and maybe some rain to the south. I could see it eeking out some snow showers in the higher terrain as the upper levels are cold enough.
 In northern areas that stay sunny, the temps will jump to the mid and upper 40s, in the south, with clouds, 40s will also be the rule!

Tomorrow looks quite mild with highs in the 50s and maybe approaching 60 in the south.

Freezing rain will be possible in valley locations tomorrow night. Rain is the most likely outcome through much of Tuesday with  very windy afternoon and colder temperatures through th rest of the week. As of now, I am not seeing another system on the horizon. It is possible that could change for next weekend.

All for now!
 

Storm over!

This ended up as I had thought yesterday when I posted about there not
being much moisture.

Things will improve after a dreary start saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or below normal through next week. Rain looks likely monday
night through tuesday. The next chance of precip after that could come
next weekend.

All for now.

Winter weather thoughts this mornind

Winter storm watch remains. Feel more areas may be under advisory
criteria (>4" snow or >.25" of ice) than thought. True winter storm
criterea for ice would be southwestern VA and some MD areas near the
PA border. Smaller amounts of precip elsewhere will lead to a lower
accumulation.

Still early so keep checking for updates.

Winter Storm Watches are up. Messy Mix for Friday into Saturday!

The national weather service has come out with Watches and this looks like a long term icing event starting as snow most areas tomorrow night. The surface cold will mean that the warming taking place aloft will not make it to the surface so Ice will become a dominant type. this will be especially true west of I-95, but MOST areas could see an ice storm before warming.

There are still details to be concerned about. Some models show less precipitation than others. If the less precip pans out, advisory criteria (icing less than .25"would more the likely outcome)

Now, I am thinking that the combination of Ice and Snow will be enough for the storm and we will all need to watch this.

Break down:
I-95 and east - Advisory criteria
I-95 and West - Winter Storm

Snow 1-4" (more western slopes and near PA border)
Ice will be an issue through most of Saturday.

All for now.

Winter returns

Winter has come back and we could see multiple chances for wintry
weather and snow through the end of the month and into next.

As of now, today should feature a period of snow which will dust many
areas north of fredericksburg and up into maryland. Areas further
north will see 1 to 2 inches with isolated. Inch spots. Add 2 to 3
inches to that for the mountains.

Thursday night and all day friday look bad! Ice storm criteria should
be met in the piedmont areas with icing looking bad. Snow may be a
factor for northern areas for the first couple of hours but ice is the
bigger threat.

The weekend looks tranquil and then more potential winter weather tuesday.

All for now.

Light Snow tomorrow. Ice Storm Friday!

Light Snow will overspread the northern Half of Virginia and Maryland tomorrow. 1 to as much a 3 inches will fall, from Fredericksburg northward with the near 3" occurring in Maryland. 3-5" is expected in the higher, western facing, mountains.

Friday could be a very slippery day with widespread icing issues and maybe some accumulating snows. This could include most of the area, especially west of I-95. More northern areas could squeeze out enough snow at the onset to be  Winter Storm Warning Criteria for snow (>4") and then many areas could be under a storm warning for Ice!

Details still coming on the later week storm, but look for snow to overspread the area quickly tomorrow morning and last until evening.

 

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Some snow in the north tommorrow. More to come!

Light snow will visit northern va and md tommorrow. 1 to 3" amounts
could fall. More snow in MD than VA.

Friday looks like a snow to a mix scenario. This could still drop a
fair amount of snow Thursday night into Friday.

More to come.

Very warm day to give way to colder and potentially wintry weather!

Highs reached the 70's in many places, but will head to colder and
stormier times.

Clipper: so far I am unimpressed, but the NWS is concerned that models
could be underplaying the slystem. So, in northern VA and MD, there
could be some accumulating snow wednesday.

Thursdat through saturday: a variety of winter weather appears to be
coming. Snow and ice could be an issue for a lot of areas. This is
especially true for the piedmont and mountains. Northern VA and MD,
esecially west of i-95 may see the biggest snow of the season and then
ice on that! A lot of details are still to come!

All for now!

Warm today. Then seasonal. Winter weather later this week

Very warm this morning with fallind temperatures. This week is not
clear cut, but, I have a lot of information showing thursday through
at least saturday could have several rounds of frozen precipitation.
Stay tuned.

Weekend to end rainy. Snow/Ice threat increasing for Thursday - Friday

We are rather calm weather wise this weekend with highs slightly below normal today and slightly above tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, rain should overspread the area.
Scattered showers will likely turn to snow showers Monday and Monday night in the north and Mountains but that will be after a rather mild start in the 50s and even 60s. A pretty cold week will shape  up and it appears a storm may affect us with a variety of winter weather starting Thursday and lasting into Friday. This looks like a Snow to ice set up for amny Northen Virginia and Maryland areas.

All for now!

Ice issues remain this morning. Snow this afternoon

The ice continues most of the night and has been really a problem for the central piedmont. Be extremely careful especially on secondary streets and walking!

The snow threat this afternoon and evening looks less impressive than I may have thought, but bears watching as models do not get these scenarios correct often. I am not saying we will get more than foretasted, I am saying it is very hard to forecast.

Why was it so much colder? My only real thoughts on this was that the storm that is to the west was not as strong as foretasted which meant the southerly winds were not as strong as thought. These winds would have warmed the atmosphere and switched things to rain yesterday instead of this morning. Also, the secondary low that could  cause some snow this afternoon and evening coudl affect the scouring of the cold as well.

The week will remain fairly cold with the next threat of wintry weather Sunday night into Tuesday!

All for now!

Ice isses continue for Piedmont - snow tomorrow into tomorrow night!

The cold air will slowly erode, but it is going to take some time so ice will be an issue until morning! In the morning we may see some plain rain before temperatures bottom out a new coastal low forms. There is a chance for 1 - 4" of snow especially I-95 and eastward and especially north of I-95

This was a very strange set up and I missed it as many did! The situation tomorrow is an evolving one and may surprise us again!

I will update as soon as I can!

 

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Dicy roads and snow!

Be really careful when you leave! Very icy and a lot of traffic!

Rain will change to snow tomorrow and there will be some accumulations!

Ice Storm or not? West of I-95 Some Sleet and Freezing rain Likely Thursday night into Friday!

I would say that the models do not convince me that an ice storm will occur with too many areas Thursday night, but the valleys could very well get enough to warrant ice storm criteria. I would think areas west of I-95 will be but under a winter weather advisory tomorrow night and the mountain valley's could very well be under an ice storm warning. Part of teh reason will be high precipitation amounts and therefor if there is frozen precip it would be heavy for a while.

Next week is starting to look balmy! Could areas see the 70s?

All for now!

Some updates and thoughts on the weather! Seasonable but little snow chances!

First of all, I have just gotten over being sick so I am sorry I have been so absent. Work also remains busy! I see a lot of traffic from Accuweather forums! Welcome to Mid Atlantic Weather!

It has been very cold! I am happy that the heart of winter has felt like it! Unfortunately for snow lovers, the storm tracks have not favored snow for the region. Despite this I have had snow on the ground now since the 17th! Pretty impressive!

A Large storm will spin up off the east coast the next 24 hours as a southern system which brought frozen precipitation to the south will phase with a northern system that may brig some light snow and snow showers to the region overnight. That storm will miss most areas but **MAY** cause some snow for Massachusetts and cause a lot of ocean snow!

Another system will affect the area Tuesday and will likely mainly be rain, but some precip in the mountain valleys and north could cause some sleet or ice.

Another system next Thursday and Friday could also have some mix involved at onset but looks like a rain event.

Temperatures this week will turn much more seasonable with mainly 40s and low 50s after Sunday.

In general, it does not look like a wintry weather week, just too warm for snow.

SNOW ALERT! Snow amounts increasing due to radar coverage

Snowfall for the next system has been upped by the NWS. Many areas west of I-95 have been sent to a Winter Storm Warning. It appears that 4"+ of snow will fall in these regions. Higher amounts will occur near and in the mountains.

Snow is now likely to break out near daybreak in the DC metro area. Snow will fall and become heavy at times west of I-95.

Best I can tell from what i am seeing.

A line from Roanoke, to Harrison burg to Leesburg through middle of Frederick County Maryland will see the most snow.

yes.. I kind of fell asleep at the wheel on this one! Again.. snowfall I think will generally be 3-6" east of the immediate piedmont and 4 - 8" in higher elevations.

This has a very high likelihood too change!

 

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Messy mix probable Thursday and Thursday Night

There is a fairly strong chance that a mix of snow, rain,freezing rain, and sleet will be occurring Thursday and Thursday night.

This is especially true of the Piedmont and mainly west of I -95. Areas of higher elevations could see some accumulating snow before a mix also comes into play there. Not a lot of time so this will be all for now! Please note, that, unlike the last 2 storms, more cold air is already in place before the start of the system.

 

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Downgrade snow alert to just some flakes with rain - Brutal cold likely next weekend!

Just not cold enough and a storm that will not get its act together until too late! So we will see rain and many places will likely see a mix at some point overnight, but accumulations are not likely. I could see a dusting and I still feel a bit worried about abandoning accumulations, but i am not getting the Forecast Model support. I will need to watch maps today and this evening to be sure I do not have to reverse course, but again, this winter, we have to call off a real snow alert and just make you aware of the possibility for some snow later tonight.

This week will be a busy one with another possible winter system Thursday/Friday and then a brutally cold snow this coming weekend! Highs may stay in the teens to even single digits in the mountains. Systems could be poised for more snowy concerns next week as we stay pretty cold!

So the key here, less chances of snow.. a seasonable weather week, another chance of wintry weather Thursday and Friday followed by the coldest cold of the season!

Hang on for the bumpy ride!

More later!

Snow threat still there.. but not as enthusiastic about a big event

Trends on models have been to get this storm together later than would be needed for a larger snowstorm in the area. that being said, some details are obviously not know, and this one has a chance to surprise us. The forecast models have shown a move further east and north with the precipitation. This trend may continue or could be wrong. I am certain some precipitation will fall tomorrow and tomorrow night. I am also fairly certain areas will see snow after some rain for a while. I am not certain if much more than 1  to 3 inches would fall. Areas likely to see snow after a mix would actually be along and just east of I 95 north of Fredericksburg and this would happen tomorrow night. Areas west of I 95 north of Fredericksburg and just up and east of the Piedmont could see a 1 to 2" snow. If models continue to trend unfavorable for heavier precipitation, rain may not turn to snow until right at the end. On the other hand, there may be some more adjustments

So I am not enthusiastic about a big storm, and I am concerned by the trends. They could reverse and we could see more snow so this one is going to be a tough one!

More to come!

Continued threat of Wintry weather Sunday.. but details are fuzzy

There will be a storm and there is the distinct possibility of snow, but the temperatures at the surface may just be warm enough that accumulations become somewhat limited. There may also be a lot of forecast model issues at this time that are causing me to think less of the storm for the time being. The possibilities still run the spectrum from rain most place to more snow, and the lighter or heavier amounts. Now it looks fairly certain there will be some wintry weather in the region, the amounts and impact are way too early to detail.

Next week looks cold and also has another potential snow threat later in the week. We are entering an active winter pattern!

Increasing Chance of Significant Winter Storm Sunday into Monday

Situation will need to be monitored but it appears a strong Nor'easter may be ready to blast the region with Heavy precipitation Sunday into Monday. Preliminary model output does put areas in a risk for significant wintry precipitation. This has shown up several times on models in the past and then changed dramatically so I will continue to monitor!

All for now!

The site is back on line! Mild start of the week. A slow cool down and potential storminess!

Yes, I had some major technical issues this week that brought http://www.midatlanticweather.com off the net for almost three days! Well, I am glad to say all parts are back up and functional now! The forum is up again too though I lost a few days of data and a memeber or two because of this! If you can go back and sign up I would appreciate it!

For this week, we will stay very mild, even warmish with highs in the Mid 60s Monday and Tuesday. A front will approach and cross the region this Wednesday and then knock temperatures back to cooler values, but still above normal. More precip will fall this Friday and some areas could see it mix with Snow overnight Friday night, especially in the Mountains.

Longer term there appears to be at least 1 to 2 storm threats the following week. The first looks like rain and maybe what is needed to reverse the warmer pattern and make it head towards  a snowier and colder pattern. If things come together right the second could be the first real now threat in a while.

Look for some changes to http://www.midatlanticweather.com as a new format may be used and at least a link to a home weather station, at Mid Atlantic Weather's home, is on the way!

All for now!

Temperatures much warmer than thought. Snow threat pretty much over!

The colder air never really established itself so the precipitation today will be rain most areas. Far Northwestern Maryland and the Maryland and Pennsylvania border look to have a mix of sleet in the rain. Do not be surprised most areas in Northern VA and Maryland to see some sleet at the precipitation onset that will quickly change to rain. Snow may mix in with the rain tonight as the precipitation comes to an end. Not looking for any real accumulations.

Sorry for the false alarm!

Jimmy

 

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Snow and sleet likely tomorrow Afternoon into tomorrow evening with some accumulations

Snow and sleet likely tomorrow Afternoon into tomorrow evening  in Northern Virginia and Maryland with some accumulations, especially on grassy areas. A stalled out front will have a wave of low pressure form along it tomorrow and spread a swath of rain into the region. Areas west of I -95, especially from Fredericksburg and north will see this become a mixture of sleet and snow as there will be just enough could air to work with. Further towards the southwest between Roanoke and Charlottesville up to Leesburg, enough precip could fall to give a general 1 - 3" of combination. Areas further north could see 4 -5" especially along the Maryland and Pennsylvania border and then up through much of Pennsylvania. Temps will remain near freezing in areas where the mixture falls so roads will not have much to deal with until tomorrow night.

this coming week we will see temperatures fall to their lowest levels of the season.. but long term we could see an impressive warm up!.

Severe Weather Threat today... Less likely to See snow On Christmas.. Still Some Things to Watch!

A very Strong cold front will cross the region today. The First affect of the front will be much warmer temperatures. Very strong winds will also accompany the front. The interesting feature will be the potential fro Thunderstorms! Some storms could contain strong gusty winds and even an isolated tornado! Behind the front we will see sunny conditions Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 40s north and low 50s south.. seasonable.

There are 2 weather systems this week that will approach the area. One Wednesday night and one Friday. Both come in to play when there is marginal cold air for snow possible. I am expecting rain, but wanted to throw this possibility. Temps will continue in the low to mid 40s through Friday.

NOTE: I cannot discount that there COULD be a system that comes up the coast Christmas day and could also cause Rain or a Mix of rain and snow to many areas. The likelihood is a bit small, but there is something close by! I will update if necessary!

Some Christmas Fun at this link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Fe11OlMiz8

Merry Christmas!

Early Signs of Potential Winter Storm on Christmas Day! I do not have a lot of time to post so I will just say that the weather looks Dismal this weekend. pretty Cold through Wednesday next week and there is a chance of a Winter Storm on Christmas Day or the Day After. Now.. This is one of my favorite Christmas sites so far this year. I am attempting to embed the Video of these lights! AMAZING! Carol of the Bells - Computer Controlled Christmas Lights from Richard Holdman on Vimeo.

Mixing of sleet and some Frezing rain to mainly rain event next 24 hours

With model runs remaining warm and the storm tracks not favorable for any large winter system in the Central Mid Atlantic region, this storm will do as I stated yesterday. A mix will overspread the northern Virginia and Maryland areas this evening. A gradual change over to rain will occur and a rainy night looks to occur. Closer to the mountains in far northern Virginia up into western Maryland will be the last ones to delay in change over and they should be on the cusp of Winter Storm Warning criteria. Most regions will see a lighter coating of the mix and then just rain. It is possible rain could mix with snow right at the storm's ending tomorrow, but this looks less likely. A very windy and cold day and night ahead for tomorrow!

Sorry for the early hype on this storm only to have it really fizzle out! Parts of New England will see another 12 to 20 inches of snow!

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

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Still saying just a mix and then mainly rain. Still Stay Tuned! NWS Is not in agreement!

NWS and I are not in agreement on this one. Immediate Piedmont of Far NW VA and Western MD I could see hitting Winter Storm Criterea from Ice..but I agree with TinkWx (See Forum) on the warmer side of things so I downgraded to a brief mix over to rain most areas.

NWS has a watch out area wide..

Their Discussion

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
STORM THAT WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE ENERGY THAT THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED FOR
DAYS THAT WILL HELP SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS...AND DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE WEST WITH THE INITIAL LOW...MOVING IT UP
OR EVEN JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...BECOMING A NOR'EASTER.

THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FOR A STORM TO AFFECT OUR CWA THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES AND
THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO MAKE THIS A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED BOTH SLOWER AND
WARMER...SOME SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS WARM. IN
ADDITION...EVEN IF A WARMER SOLUTION DOES OCCUR...THERE REMAINS THE
RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

EXPERIENCE SAYS THAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SOMETIMES DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TOO SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE INVOLVED. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL BEGIN PRECIPITATION
SOONER THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES /INCLUDING NCEP AND CZYS
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS/ HAVE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAVORED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THEN...THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW WARM AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
AIR INTRUSION ALOFT WILL CAUSE A MESSY MIX...MORE THAN LIKELY MORE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAN SNOW
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IF THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS TO
BE BELIEVED. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SNOW THE
LONGEST. QPF SHOULD BE BOUNTIFUL...EVEN IF OUR CWA GETS CAUGHT IN
A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF QPF BETWEEN THE INITIAL LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. SUCH QPF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND THIS IS
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EXACT AMOUNTS OF EACH TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED AT A LATER TIME.

MOREOVER...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
PRECIPITATION LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
DOMINATES AND NORTHWEST WINDS DRAW IN COLDER AIR. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
NOR'EASTER...GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 45 MPH GUSTS /IF NOT HIGHER/ TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA...SO WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE FUTURE.
ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVES ICE
ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWERLINES WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE TO
ICE INDUCED DAMAGE WITH WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE.

Still saying just a mix and then mainly rain. Still Stay Tuned! NWS Is not in agreement!

NWS and I are not in agreement on this one. Immediate Piedmont of Far NW VA and Western MD I could see hitting Winter Storm Criterea from Ice..but I agree with TinkWx (See Forum) on the warmer side of things so I downgraded to a brief mix over to rain most areas.

NWS has a watch out area wide..

Their Discussion

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
STORM THAT WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IS THE ENERGY THAT THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED FOR
DAYS THAT WILL HELP SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS...AND DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE WEST WITH THE INITIAL LOW...MOVING IT UP
OR EVEN JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...BECOMING A NOR'EASTER.

THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FOR A STORM TO AFFECT OUR CWA THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES AND
THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO MAKE THIS A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED BOTH SLOWER AND
WARMER...SOME SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS WARM. IN
ADDITION...EVEN IF A WARMER SOLUTION DOES OCCUR...THERE REMAINS THE
RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

EXPERIENCE SAYS THAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SOMETIMES DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TOO SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY WHEN WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE INVOLVED. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL BEGIN PRECIPITATION
SOONER THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES /INCLUDING NCEP AND CZYS
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS/ HAVE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAVORED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THEN...THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW WARM AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
AIR INTRUSION ALOFT WILL CAUSE A MESSY MIX...MORE THAN LIKELY MORE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAN SNOW
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IF THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE IS TO
BE BELIEVED. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SNOW THE
LONGEST. QPF SHOULD BE BOUNTIFUL...EVEN IF OUR CWA GETS CAUGHT IN
A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF QPF BETWEEN THE INITIAL LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. SUCH QPF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND THIS IS
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD EVEN
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EXACT AMOUNTS OF EACH TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED AT A LATER TIME.

MOREOVER...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
PRECIPITATION LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
DOMINATES AND NORTHWEST WINDS DRAW IN COLDER AIR. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
NOR'EASTER...GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 45 MPH GUSTS /IF NOT HIGHER/ TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA...SO WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE FUTURE.
ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVES ICE
ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWERLINES WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE TO
ICE INDUCED DAMAGE WITH WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE.

Winter Storm downgrade to Brief Mix and then RAINY and Windy

There will still be some mixing of ice at the onset of this system, but now, with the main low west of the mountains much stronger and no transfer of true energy to a coastal system as thought, this system now appears to be a majority rain event until you get to Pennsylvania! Yes,, quite a change, but the system will pan out much different than where models started. Western PA, NY and up into New England should get a good amount of snow!

Sorry for the hype down in the VA, MD areas!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

---

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WINTER STORM WILL BE A MIX AND MESS! SNOW LESS> ICE& RAIN MORE

Based on all data now coming in from models and analysis this  system will have a lot of mixing with sleet and freezing rain as well as rain. Areas at most risk for  significant storm situations would be North and west of a Roanoke to Charlottesville to Dulles to Western Baltimore line. Areas along the immediate piedmont parallel to this line up to I-95 will see some icing and some snow, but there will be a lot of mixing.

The net outcome will be sloppy accumulation that should reach storm warning criteria in the mountains and immediate piedmont with potential warning, but more likely advisory criteria along I95 and to the west.

Changes will likely occur, and they may continue to point to more rain. I will keep you posted.

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

---

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Winter Storm will not have as much snow. Ice a factor!

I thought I would try an Audio post as I am very tired! Sounds so nasal ! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/2008/VORC002.WAV

MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY!

It is all speculation now, but models look very consistent on this storm. Based on the way they look I am putting out this graphic. Highest risk area now for 6"+ and a general area I think will have impacts on the situation. This is all preliminary! A few things that are in play:

• Climatologically speaking it would seem too early for a huge storm east of the mountains. That being said, it could very well happen! If so it will be Historic
• There are missing classic factors that could help the storm. NAO is not negative so concerns about a more inland track and ability of sticking cold air.
• As the storm winds up it will throw warm air in the upper levels which could mean sleet in Eastern regions
• WE ARE STILL MANY HOURS AWAY FROM THE STORM

The track is also really important and impossible to peg at this time. I will update as I can! All for now!

Winter Storm Alert mode!

Models are in agreement on bringing a major winter storm to the area Saturday into Sunday! More to come! A lot of uncertainty at this time!
--------------------------
Sent from my BlackBerry Wireless Device

MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND! TS OLGA! DISMAL WEATHER CONTINUES, BUT WARM!

The temperatures soared to record levels south of the stationary front that is still across the region! Areas hit the 80s!  Again, areas in southern regions in the sun will see temps in the  70s and potentially 80s tomorrow, but some regions will be cooler today with some marine influence (Central Virginia)

As a storm system heads our way Thursday it will play a key role in what could be a big winter storm this weekend as it will usher in the colder air! Much to consider between now and then. There is the possibility that areas in the west could see some snow Thursday night as the colder air arrives. Friday looks like the calm before the big storm.

So today, fog and dreary, but rain chances are less. Warm still in the south with 70s and low 50 in the north. Tomorrow, much warmer with 80s far south and 70s central with 60s in the north. Rain increasing! Thursday, rain and temps dropping back to the 40s north, 50s central, 60s still in the south. Calmer drier Friday, followed by a West of I-95 possible winter storm Saturday!

I did not mention it, but TS Olga was born yesterday as well! Not unheard of!

BUSY WEEK! Hope to have more updates soon!

Dismal rainy cool weather!

Yes, I have been somewhat absent.. sorry to all. We had some warm air advection snow, sleet and freezing rain since yesterday morning. This resulted in some Winter Weather Advisories and some slickness out there. The weather will remain dismal and cloudy through the weekend with temperatures rising to the 40s today and tomorrow. 50s will return for the early part of next week with plenty of rain chances every day through Thursday! Highs Wednesday will be 60 to 65 most areas!

Temperatures will return to 40s and low 50s next Friday. There are signs of a colder shot of air next weekend!

Light Snow falling as of 6:15 AM in Sterling! 1-3" possible today!

Just highlighting that snow is taking over the area earlier than I expected. Also thinking a 1 to 3" snow is more likely now! I see accumulations on the roadways is occurring! Be careful on your commute in!

Snow ill taper off later this evening.

All for now!

1 to 2" of snow. Higher amounts along and west of the mountains

Snow should begin in the early morning far west and overtake the rest of the area by noon. A light snow appears likely with areas that are shaded (under trees and around buildings) getting over an inch of snow and other areas around an inch.

The significance of this event will be the first accumulating snows for the region. Some slick spots will be possible.
 

SNOW ALERT WEDNESDAY: 1-3" of snow possible mainly on grassy surfaces

Snow is now likely for the northern third of Virginia, all of Maryland, and much of Pennsylvania. A general 1" to 3" may occur, with more north and west of the major cities.

Roads could become slick tomorrow morning during rush hour but will likely improve as the daytime temperatures will be close to or right above freezing. Most accumulation will be on grassy surfaces.

Stay tuned for updates this evening as radar images will start to show the likely magnitude of the snowfall.

All for now!

VERY WINDY DAY IN STORE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES! LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM WARM UP!

Today's headline... WINDY! Many areas are under wind advisories or even High wind warnings. Temperatures have probably peaked for the day and could fall slowly the rest of the day.

Tomorrow we will see temperatures in the low and mid 40s with sunny skies.

Wednesday will be interesting with  an Alberta Clipper that will visit the region. The system is showing up drier and drier on models so the likely outcome will be a couple of inches of snow on the west facing side of the mountains, and just scattered snow showers east of the mountains. There is the possibility, however, for the snow to fall during morning rush hour.. could this be the little dusting that causes so many commuting delays? Not sure now! Will update as needed. Temperatures will struggle to reach 40 in many areas that day.

The rest of the week should see sunny skies and highs low to mid 40s.

There are some strong signs that next week will see a reversal and temperatures may go above normal!

All for now!

A LITTLE SLEET STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. RAIN AND THEN REALLY COLD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY!

There were reports of some light snow and sleet overnight, but nothing dramatic. Washington DC tied a record for the date for a trace of snow around 11PM last night. Rain will be on the increase this afternoon and overnight. Rain will be quite heavy at times overnight. Tomorrow will be extremely windy with falling temperatures from the 40s. 30's Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (On Wednesday temps may not get above freezing in many areas!).. maybe some low to mid 40s in the south. Wednesday keeps looking interesting with a clipper coming through and light snow overspreading th area. We could see our first accumulating snow.. thinking 1-3 inches with a little higher amounts in the Mountains. We continue cold the rest of the week, but it does look like we will see a slow warming trend next week. I am not certain how long the warm up will last.

I will start an obs thread for this system! First of the season. Please post anything you have seen the last 24 hours!

Welcome to Winter!

All for now!

Some light Sleet, Snow and Freezing Rain possible tonight. Cold Week. Snow possible Wednesday!

The next 24 hors are a bit complicated. The further north you are the better the chances that you would see some sleet and freezing rain, even snow tonight. Nothing looks heavy and areas should start warming fairly quickly to turn things to rain. A cold raw day is on hand. Areas in Pennsylvania could see enough frozen precipitation to cause some travel issues. Rain will end tomorrow night, even switch areas in Pennsylvania back to snow,  and then a fairly cold week is ahead. The Mountain areas will see some accumulating snows on the western slopes as the upslope snows from the Great lakes. Highs 40's Monday and Tuesday will turn to 30's and low 40s at best the rest of the week.

Wednesday will see a slipper approach. I am not that thrilled with clippers and their snow output, but there is a certain trajectory, if taken, that could bring snow to northern Virginia and Maryland. Taking the models at face values, 1- 3" of snow could occur Wednesday into Thursday... but it is still far off, and Clippers can also bring just snow showers, or rain if the trajectory is incorrect.

After this week we will likely see a warmer trend. there is still another system to watch for next weekend, but I am unclear on it now!

All for now!

Snow chances fade with rain chances and then colder conditions next week

I am not saying that areas in the north, especially immediate piedmont and valley locations will not see some frozen precip, but models now run the Sunday/Monday low that was potentially going to be very far south, up into the Great Lakes ending any thoughts of real snow here. This low will tap Canadian air on the back side and plummet temperatures to very cold readings next week! This will be the coldest we have seen.

For today and tomorrow temps will be in the upper 40s north to mid 50s in the south. A front comes through tomorrow and knocks temps back a bit and then we have the Precipitation arriving Late Saturday night or Sunday. As I noted, some frozen could be possible at the onset in areas north and immediately east for the mountains or in valley locations.

After the rain event Sunday into Monday, we should see a stretch of  fairly cold temperatures with many areas in the 30s for highs for a few days.

All for now!
 

Clearing and windy. Cold looks likely next week! Weekend weather could spell some mixed Precip!

First off, areas did fairly well th last 24 hours north and west of Virginia in the rain department. Parts of Maryland say an inch or more in rain. Things clear up and temps really stay close to where they are this morning.

Colder air arrives this weekend, and a storm system approaches from the SW. Initially some colder air should cause at least some mixed precipitation in the Colder piedmont and mountain valleys, as well as the north. As of now (and this may change) the system is getting forced inland and west of the Appalachians which would turn us all to rain. There is still time to see what will come of this.

Next week still looks fairly cold!

All for now!

Rain - even the chance for Thunder today/tonight! Long term pattern DOES show cold next week! SNOW?

Rain could be heavy at times today and then overnight there is even a chance for isolates thunderstorms as the front moves through. This system will not tap the colder areas of Canada so it will leave seasonal weather in its wake. A front moves through Thursday that will send temperatures to below normal values again. A week from now it does appear a storm will be approaching the region. Based on current forecast models, enough cold air does look around to at least start this system as a winter weather event! How much and how long this will last is a matter of time to tell!

Very long term shows a return to seasonal or slightly above normal temperatures after the colder week of next week!

All for now!

Sleet and Snow Pellets reported (and I saw some) overnight and this morning. On target for a rainy Monday

Last night on my trip from Gettysburg to Sterling Virginia I hit several pockets of Snow Pellets and sleet. Sleet was also reported in Central Virginia this morning which was associated with some energy and overrunning of rain.

Rain will come in tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s area wide though Thursday when another front will cross the area and cause some showers and temps back into the 40s and low 50s at best.

There are definite signs of colder air the first week of December and a possible winter weather event around the 4th or 5th. All this is speculation this far out! We will have to see.

All for now!

Cold Morning.Rain Monday. seasonal.. pattern shift could mean winter weather

We had the coldest night so far this season last night. I had a low of 21 which seems comparable to most of the colder lows throughout the region. A front and associated weather system will cause some rain here Monday. Seasonal temperatures in the 50s will persist much of the week, but turning slightly colder next weekend.

Long term conditions seems to start to favor better chances of cold and precipitation the week of December third! We could see our first real chance of wintry weather that week!

All for now!

More rain than I thought.. SNOW close by.. maybe a bit more.. warmer next week and then?

This morning snow fell in many western areas including areas just to my west in Purcellville, VA! Pretty exciting to see it so close. 3 disturbance are swinging or have swung through the region leaving much more rains today than first thought! Coldest high of the Fall with highs in the low 40s today. As the third piece of energy travels through this evening rain has filled back in and there is a chance as winds switch to the north that rain could again switch to or mix with snow for a while!

Rain will depart during the first half of the day Saturday with winds picking up as a coastal low gets spun up off the coast. Cool conditions will continue with highs in the 40s and low 50s in the south.

Things start warming with highs low to mid 50s in the North, upper 50s south Sunday, 50's and low 60s Monday, Low to mid 60s Tuesday.

Long term is up in the air with possibilities of warmer or colder temps. Hedging my bets that we will stay somewhat mild and not super cold though we may cool a bit after a front mid next week. Some models point to a Thanksgiving week cold outbreak, others mild to "warm". the battles will continue!

All for now!

Colder conditions have arrived. Moderation to begin Sunday! Snow Showers?

Amazing what stronger overnight winds that are downsloping from the mountains will do. I woke up to 44 degrees which was warmer than my 8PM reading last night. Breezy and cool conditions will prevail today with areas in the upper 40s in the north to mid and upper 50s in the south. Tonight will have widespread 20s especially west of I95 and low 30s east which will mean the coldest night of the season thus far. Cool and cold conditions will persist through Saturday. A disturbance **MAY** be able to squeeze some showers out Friday afternoon and rain and snow showers Friday Night with the best chance of precipitation in the mountains. This will be mainly northern half of the area.

 

Milder/Seasonal conditions return Sunday and then a slight warming through mid next week when another shot at some rain arrives!

 

All for now!

 

Good Soaking rains over last night usher in cooler weather the rest of the week! Snow Showers?!

A nice rain fell last night with the front and that rain should be ending in the east by later morning. Cooler air now moves in and will persist until about Sunday when warmer conditions will begin. Temps at night will dip into the 20s for many areas especially Wednesday night. Now, there is a chance some precipitation could fall Thursday through Saturday and ay night time this would mix with or be snow showers. This is especially true for higher elevations and some snow showers there look likely Thursday night and Friday night. For areas west of 95 up to the mountains a mixture of snow and rain showers seems possible Friday night!

Realistically, I am not super impressed with the idea of any snow east of the mountains, but the possibility exists.

Longer term looks like a little warm up and then back to seasonal next week after another front.

All for now!

Cool down about to occur. Lasting colder conditions unlikely.

Today will be nice with increasing cloudiness. Temps will be mid and upper 60s to lower 70s in the southern areas.The strong front will cross the region overnight and tomorrow temps will be about 10 degrees cooler. Then about 5- 10 degrees cooler after that. This will mean most areas will freeze that have not officially ending the rest of the growing season for anyone.

Wednesday through Friday will see highs in the 40s north, and 50s south with some 30s in the mountains.  There is a chance that the mountains will see a touch of snow this coming Thursday into Friday while the rest of us see some isolated showers Friday.

Long term, a slow return to seasonal to just above normal temperatures seems likely as the Jet stream takes a zonal flow pattern. There could be a significant weather maker around the 11th which I ill keep an eye on.

All for now!

Colder Week on the way! NWS even has a chance of snow in the area!

Seasonal temperatures will remain today and tomorrow and then we have a strong cold front move through dropping temperatures to the 50s and 40s. A disturbance could make it in here towards the end of the week and (according to one model) cause a mix of rain and snow in the higher areas of the piedmont and the mountains would see just snow. I am interested in seeing what *MAY* happen but wanted to mention it as it is in the NWS forecast!

All for now!

Cool refreshing air arrives and just gets reinforced and reinforced!

After a balmy last week, we are now sitting in the first in what appears to be a series of refreshing Canadian High Pressure Systems. This will mean the cool refreshing air gets reinforced every few days and highs Sunday may not reach far above 70 in many areas. There re signs that even cooler air is on the horizon later next week and the first real chill of 40's will be felt more than in just the mountains. The rain the last few days was welcome, but the deficits remain and may not be helped much during this time as the flow is less wet than what is needed. Next Chance of rain is Friday Evening.

 

In the tropics the far western Gulf of Mexico could have a tropical depression already and another near the lesser Antilles. It is possible I will have a new tropics site up near the end of the season!

 

All for now!

 

Tropical Storm Gabrielle affecting NC. Some good chances of rain and cooler weather!

The 90 degree readings will be here one more day as we continue a warmer than normal period! Temperatures will fall off this week and a few days may see temps only in the 70s and some mid 80s in the southern areas! Several rain chances this week as the cooler air arrives along a slow moving front. This will be a hit or miss rain week so it is hard to pinpoint the best chances, but they definitely increase starting Monday Night and Tuesday and another more concentrated chance on Thursday.

Gabrielle will come on shore in the Outer Banks later this morning into early afternoon. She has strengthened some this morning and may be a pretty strong 55 mph storm for some. She is going to redirect north and East pretty quickly and head out to sea. The tropics remain kind of busy, but the area should remain free of tropical threats based on the upper air wind patterns.

OF NOTE.. The strongest cold air intrusion of th season will hot the upper Midwest and the northeast with daytime temps in the 50s for the first times this year! Canada will be pretty cool and many frosts and freezes will occur up there! Winter is on the way!

Jimmy

Tropical Threat could bring needed rain and east coast Hurricane Threat!

The disturbance off the east coast does appear that it may turn into a tropical system and pose a threat to the east coast later this weekend! This could help the drought but we hope not cause severe damage! This will need to be watched!

Felix regained strgnth to Cate 5 before landfall in Honduras. Forecast for warm and dry continues all week!

Not long to post here! Just note that it will be warm and continued dry through the rest of theweek. The fire danger could really start getting real again. Be careful!

 

Felix weakened yesterday after its amazing 24 hour strengthening, but again strengthened this morning and is going to devastate parts of Honduras as it looks like it made it back to category 5 status!

 

WTNT61 KNHC 041040
TCUAT1
HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
640 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE FELIX HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Dry and warm weather to continue. Felix exploded to categoiry 5 yesterday aiming for Honduras!

What a beautiful weekend! temperature were reasonable and humidity was very low. The dry weather will continue which is not the best for our drought. Temperature will range in the mid and upper 80s to some lower 90s.

 

Felix was amazing! It strengthened by 85 mph winds yesterday becoming a serious Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds!! Check the latest information on the Tropical page!

 

 

Steamy and warm today with more scattered showers and storms. Cooler nice weekend next weekend?!

Next weekend could really be a great one, unless you head to the beach. A taste of more Fall Like temps may visit.

For Today, warm and muggy with scattered storms look likely! Some isolated severe storms do seem possible, but not as widespread. We continue to need the rains! The drought is pretty strong and so far has not been relieved.

See the Drought Monitor http://drought.unl.edu/dm/6_week.gif

All for now!

Extreme Heat Hs popped Isolated Severe Storms

Storms have been popping (Especially in the mountains) and they have had plenty of energy to become severe. so Isolated Storms will continue to pop up and they very well could turn severe. Please stay alert and cool! At the time I am writing this in Sterling it is 96 degrees with a heat Index of 107!

 

More widespread storms are likely tomorrow and again, isolated severe storms could form.

 

BTW... Mid Atlantic Weather will start to be updated soon and posts will be more frequent from now on!

 

All for now!

HOT! Then Thunderstorms and back to more normal temps! Much cooler next Friday!

Today is extremely HOT! Steamy Hot too! Stay cool, drink fluids, and wear light colored clothing! Just no fun when staying outside unless you are in a pool!

Tonight into tomorrow an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms will "cool" the area to the lower 90s tomorrow. Then a week where temp start in the seasonal mid 80s and maybe down to highs only in the 70s this coming Friday.

Tropics: They seemed to heat up and cool down again The aftermath of Dean was not as bad as one would have feared. Mean he was but many in Mexico and other areas headed warnings making him less of a killer than he could have been. Also, he hit a rural part of Mexico. Thank goodness for the miss to many that would have been devastated by him.

All for now!

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DEAN COMES ASHORE WITH 165 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS! WOW! MUCH NEEDED RAINS FALL HERE. SUMMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN!

WOW! MEAN DEAN lives up to his name and then some as he strengthened to 165 mph winds before landfall. The devastation a hurricane of that magnitude can have is just unheard of! The Yucatan is getting hammered as he weakens over land today. He will emerge again and make a second landfall in Mexico later this week!

 

For us. Welcome rains and cooler temperatures have been very good for our parched region. The cooler air and rainy skies will begin to break up tomorrow and officially be gone Thursday as highs climb back up to 85 to 90 degree range and in the 90s by Friday.

 

The weekend could hold some thunder.

 

Tropics: Another disturbance out between Bahama and the Lee Ward islands showed some flare up yesterday and will need to be watched, but looks pitiful this morning!

 

All for now!

 

Dean is just 1 mile an hour shy of Category 5 at 8pm update!

WOW! What a system. He is so well defined and truly devastating! I hope the best for those near Belize tonight and do not which that type of situation on anyone!

All for now!

MUCH NEEDED RAINS APPEAR TO BE HEADED OUR WAY! JAMAICA WILL DEAL WITH A DEVASTATING BLOW FROM DEAN! THEN WHERE?

A stalled front will be  welcome neighbor between today and tomorrow as it provides a focus for multiple impulses of rain! Rain amounts now seem to be a general 1 - 2" with some places a little higher in storms!  What seemed like it may be more focused in Northern areas now seems to be a pretty broad area so most of Virginia will see rains that are needed! Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday and then a warm up to the 90 degree readings by next weekend.

Dean maintains a strong Category 4 Status. There are some ranges in guidance as to the eventual track, but, the track will be determined if a small weakness could be exploited and turn it a bit northward.. If that happens Texas could seriously be dealt with a huge destructive blow. Now Northern Mexico looks to be the eventual target. Before then a hit on Jamaica today and then the Yucatan tomorrow into Tuesday. It will devastate anything in its path so Texas needs to stay alert to this! I have a nice tracking forum topic if interested.

All for now!

MEAN DEAN! MEANWHILE WE HAVE GREAT WEEKEND!!! MUCH NEEDED RAINS ON THE WAY!!!!

Dean may gain the 5 extra miles an hour and become a Category 5 without much more strengthening. Meanwhile we have a great blast from the north causing temps to go down to the lower 50s in the suburbs! I am pretty certain we have a chance of some needed rains Monday as well as a front stalls and we have impulses of energy that could give Northern Virginia and Maryland a much needed 1-3 inches of rain Sunday Night and Monday! All for now. In about 1 week posts will become more regular thanks to schedules getting better on my side!

Dean on the cusp of Category 5 status

It seems more frequent than in recent years that we get Category 5 storms. this year the warm ocean temperatures have give the fuel needed to explode a very serious storm. There is some uncertainty if he will come ashore in the Yucatan and then where along the Gulf he will come ashore! No doubt he is serious! The tight eye reminds me of Andrew.

 

Needless to say he is amazing to watch and I think he will be a category 5 today!

 

Interests in Gulf need to watch what could be a serious catastrophic storm if he comes ashore and is still powerful.

 

All for now!

 

Severe possible this afternoon

Severe storms a are a possibility this afternoon as an energetic system comes close the area. Be alert and stay tuned for watches and/or warnings.

All for now.

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

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Tropical Storm Erin and Mean Dean!

Tropical Storm Erin will hit Southern Texas as a mild tropical storm. The big concern with Texas is more unneeded rainfall in a water logged state.

That is not the real system of worry. Tropical Storm Dean will likely make it to hurricane strength in the next 24 hours. Current projections have him strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane and threaten the Yucatan and possibly the Gulf with a serious storm threat.

See the latest in the tropical area on Midatlanticweather.com

Tropical Season Heating Up

I have not had a lot of time to post but hopefully will be able to do more soon!

Tropical Storm Dean was born as of 11am this morning! He is likely to be a Hurricane in the next few days and could eventually pose a threat to the U.S.

A Strong wave the gulf of Mexico could become a Tropical Depression later today. This one would threaten Texas which is not good!

Stay tuned!

Tornado Watch Issued

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND UNTIL 10 PM!
Due to high shear in the atmosphere (the elements needed for potential tornadoes) and hot conditions, a Tornado watch is in effect until 10 pm this evening! This is an especially important message due to many people not monitoring weather but enjoying outdoor activities! Please be on teh look out for threatening conditions. The watch is for Maryland and Northern Virginia!

Please get the word out!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

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