Colder conditions have arrived. Moderation to begin Sunday! Snow Showers?

Amazing what stronger overnight winds that are downsloping from the mountains will do. I woke up to 44 degrees which was warmer than my 8PM reading last night. Breezy and cool conditions will prevail today with areas in the upper 40s in the north to mid and upper 50s in the south. Tonight will have widespread 20s especially west of I95 and low 30s east which will mean the coldest night of the season thus far. Cool and cold conditions will persist through Saturday. A disturbance **MAY** be able to squeeze some showers out Friday afternoon and rain and snow showers Friday Night with the best chance of precipitation in the mountains. This will be mainly northern half of the area.

 

Milder/Seasonal conditions return Sunday and then a slight warming through mid next week when another shot at some rain arrives!

 

All for now!

 

Good Soaking rains over last night usher in cooler weather the rest of the week! Snow Showers?!

A nice rain fell last night with the front and that rain should be ending in the east by later morning. Cooler air now moves in and will persist until about Sunday when warmer conditions will begin. Temps at night will dip into the 20s for many areas especially Wednesday night. Now, there is a chance some precipitation could fall Thursday through Saturday and ay night time this would mix with or be snow showers. This is especially true for higher elevations and some snow showers there look likely Thursday night and Friday night. For areas west of 95 up to the mountains a mixture of snow and rain showers seems possible Friday night!

Realistically, I am not super impressed with the idea of any snow east of the mountains, but the possibility exists.

Longer term looks like a little warm up and then back to seasonal next week after another front.

All for now!

Cool down about to occur. Lasting colder conditions unlikely.

Today will be nice with increasing cloudiness. Temps will be mid and upper 60s to lower 70s in the southern areas.The strong front will cross the region overnight and tomorrow temps will be about 10 degrees cooler. Then about 5- 10 degrees cooler after that. This will mean most areas will freeze that have not officially ending the rest of the growing season for anyone.

Wednesday through Friday will see highs in the 40s north, and 50s south with some 30s in the mountains.  There is a chance that the mountains will see a touch of snow this coming Thursday into Friday while the rest of us see some isolated showers Friday.

Long term, a slow return to seasonal to just above normal temperatures seems likely as the Jet stream takes a zonal flow pattern. There could be a significant weather maker around the 11th which I ill keep an eye on.

All for now!

Colder Week on the way! NWS even has a chance of snow in the area!

Seasonal temperatures will remain today and tomorrow and then we have a strong cold front move through dropping temperatures to the 50s and 40s. A disturbance could make it in here towards the end of the week and (according to one model) cause a mix of rain and snow in the higher areas of the piedmont and the mountains would see just snow. I am interested in seeing what *MAY* happen but wanted to mention it as it is in the NWS forecast!

All for now!

Cool refreshing air arrives and just gets reinforced and reinforced!

After a balmy last week, we are now sitting in the first in what appears to be a series of refreshing Canadian High Pressure Systems. This will mean the cool refreshing air gets reinforced every few days and highs Sunday may not reach far above 70 in many areas. There re signs that even cooler air is on the horizon later next week and the first real chill of 40's will be felt more than in just the mountains. The rain the last few days was welcome, but the deficits remain and may not be helped much during this time as the flow is less wet than what is needed. Next Chance of rain is Friday Evening.

 

In the tropics the far western Gulf of Mexico could have a tropical depression already and another near the lesser Antilles. It is possible I will have a new tropics site up near the end of the season!

 

All for now!

 

Tropical Storm Gabrielle affecting NC. Some good chances of rain and cooler weather!

The 90 degree readings will be here one more day as we continue a warmer than normal period! Temperatures will fall off this week and a few days may see temps only in the 70s and some mid 80s in the southern areas! Several rain chances this week as the cooler air arrives along a slow moving front. This will be a hit or miss rain week so it is hard to pinpoint the best chances, but they definitely increase starting Monday Night and Tuesday and another more concentrated chance on Thursday.

Gabrielle will come on shore in the Outer Banks later this morning into early afternoon. She has strengthened some this morning and may be a pretty strong 55 mph storm for some. She is going to redirect north and East pretty quickly and head out to sea. The tropics remain kind of busy, but the area should remain free of tropical threats based on the upper air wind patterns.

OF NOTE.. The strongest cold air intrusion of th season will hot the upper Midwest and the northeast with daytime temps in the 50s for the first times this year! Canada will be pretty cool and many frosts and freezes will occur up there! Winter is on the way!

Jimmy

Tropical Threat could bring needed rain and east coast Hurricane Threat!

The disturbance off the east coast does appear that it may turn into a tropical system and pose a threat to the east coast later this weekend! This could help the drought but we hope not cause severe damage! This will need to be watched!

Felix regained strgnth to Cate 5 before landfall in Honduras. Forecast for warm and dry continues all week!

Not long to post here! Just note that it will be warm and continued dry through the rest of theweek. The fire danger could really start getting real again. Be careful!

 

Felix weakened yesterday after its amazing 24 hour strengthening, but again strengthened this morning and is going to devastate parts of Honduras as it looks like it made it back to category 5 status!

 

WTNT61 KNHC 041040
TCUAT1
HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
640 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE FELIX HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Dry and warm weather to continue. Felix exploded to categoiry 5 yesterday aiming for Honduras!

What a beautiful weekend! temperature were reasonable and humidity was very low. The dry weather will continue which is not the best for our drought. Temperature will range in the mid and upper 80s to some lower 90s.

 

Felix was amazing! It strengthened by 85 mph winds yesterday becoming a serious Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds!! Check the latest information on the Tropical page!

 

 

Steamy and warm today with more scattered showers and storms. Cooler nice weekend next weekend?!

Next weekend could really be a great one, unless you head to the beach. A taste of more Fall Like temps may visit.

For Today, warm and muggy with scattered storms look likely! Some isolated severe storms do seem possible, but not as widespread. We continue to need the rains! The drought is pretty strong and so far has not been relieved.

See the Drought Monitor http://drought.unl.edu/dm/6_week.gif

All for now!

Extreme Heat Hs popped Isolated Severe Storms

Storms have been popping (Especially in the mountains) and they have had plenty of energy to become severe. so Isolated Storms will continue to pop up and they very well could turn severe. Please stay alert and cool! At the time I am writing this in Sterling it is 96 degrees with a heat Index of 107!

 

More widespread storms are likely tomorrow and again, isolated severe storms could form.

 

BTW... Mid Atlantic Weather will start to be updated soon and posts will be more frequent from now on!

 

All for now!

HOT! Then Thunderstorms and back to more normal temps! Much cooler next Friday!

Today is extremely HOT! Steamy Hot too! Stay cool, drink fluids, and wear light colored clothing! Just no fun when staying outside unless you are in a pool!

Tonight into tomorrow an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms will "cool" the area to the lower 90s tomorrow. Then a week where temp start in the seasonal mid 80s and maybe down to highs only in the 70s this coming Friday.

Tropics: They seemed to heat up and cool down again The aftermath of Dean was not as bad as one would have feared. Mean he was but many in Mexico and other areas headed warnings making him less of a killer than he could have been. Also, he hit a rural part of Mexico. Thank goodness for the miss to many that would have been devastated by him.

All for now!

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DEAN COMES ASHORE WITH 165 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS! WOW! MUCH NEEDED RAINS FALL HERE. SUMMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN!

WOW! MEAN DEAN lives up to his name and then some as he strengthened to 165 mph winds before landfall. The devastation a hurricane of that magnitude can have is just unheard of! The Yucatan is getting hammered as he weakens over land today. He will emerge again and make a second landfall in Mexico later this week!

 

For us. Welcome rains and cooler temperatures have been very good for our parched region. The cooler air and rainy skies will begin to break up tomorrow and officially be gone Thursday as highs climb back up to 85 to 90 degree range and in the 90s by Friday.

 

The weekend could hold some thunder.

 

Tropics: Another disturbance out between Bahama and the Lee Ward islands showed some flare up yesterday and will need to be watched, but looks pitiful this morning!

 

All for now!

 

Dean is just 1 mile an hour shy of Category 5 at 8pm update!

WOW! What a system. He is so well defined and truly devastating! I hope the best for those near Belize tonight and do not which that type of situation on anyone!

All for now!

MUCH NEEDED RAINS APPEAR TO BE HEADED OUR WAY! JAMAICA WILL DEAL WITH A DEVASTATING BLOW FROM DEAN! THEN WHERE?

A stalled front will be  welcome neighbor between today and tomorrow as it provides a focus for multiple impulses of rain! Rain amounts now seem to be a general 1 - 2" with some places a little higher in storms!  What seemed like it may be more focused in Northern areas now seems to be a pretty broad area so most of Virginia will see rains that are needed! Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday and then a warm up to the 90 degree readings by next weekend.

Dean maintains a strong Category 4 Status. There are some ranges in guidance as to the eventual track, but, the track will be determined if a small weakness could be exploited and turn it a bit northward.. If that happens Texas could seriously be dealt with a huge destructive blow. Now Northern Mexico looks to be the eventual target. Before then a hit on Jamaica today and then the Yucatan tomorrow into Tuesday. It will devastate anything in its path so Texas needs to stay alert to this! I have a nice tracking forum topic if interested.

All for now!

MEAN DEAN! MEANWHILE WE HAVE GREAT WEEKEND!!! MUCH NEEDED RAINS ON THE WAY!!!!

Dean may gain the 5 extra miles an hour and become a Category 5 without much more strengthening. Meanwhile we have a great blast from the north causing temps to go down to the lower 50s in the suburbs! I am pretty certain we have a chance of some needed rains Monday as well as a front stalls and we have impulses of energy that could give Northern Virginia and Maryland a much needed 1-3 inches of rain Sunday Night and Monday! All for now. In about 1 week posts will become more regular thanks to schedules getting better on my side!

Dean on the cusp of Category 5 status

It seems more frequent than in recent years that we get Category 5 storms. this year the warm ocean temperatures have give the fuel needed to explode a very serious storm. There is some uncertainty if he will come ashore in the Yucatan and then where along the Gulf he will come ashore! No doubt he is serious! The tight eye reminds me of Andrew.

 

Needless to say he is amazing to watch and I think he will be a category 5 today!

 

Interests in Gulf need to watch what could be a serious catastrophic storm if he comes ashore and is still powerful.

 

All for now!

 

Severe possible this afternoon

Severe storms a are a possibility this afternoon as an energetic system comes close the area. Be alert and stay tuned for watches and/or warnings.

All for now.

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

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Tropical Storm Erin and Mean Dean!

Tropical Storm Erin will hit Southern Texas as a mild tropical storm. The big concern with Texas is more unneeded rainfall in a water logged state.

That is not the real system of worry. Tropical Storm Dean will likely make it to hurricane strength in the next 24 hours. Current projections have him strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane and threaten the Yucatan and possibly the Gulf with a serious storm threat.

See the latest in the tropical area on Midatlanticweather.com

Tropical Season Heating Up

I have not had a lot of time to post but hopefully will be able to do more soon!

Tropical Storm Dean was born as of 11am this morning! He is likely to be a Hurricane in the next few days and could eventually pose a threat to the U.S.

A Strong wave the gulf of Mexico could become a Tropical Depression later today. This one would threaten Texas which is not good!

Stay tuned!