Just a heads up to enjoy this week as the cold air looks like it is coming a week from Monday. Cold air after the first of December. It may take some time, so we will need to watch. Something should break dam of cold air that is going to flood the US. I suspect it within the first week of December. Timing of the arctic air mass looks tough to call!
We will see!
Winter this year looks big!
All for now!
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Monday, November 12, 2012
Warm today - much cooler tomorrow! Rain and maybe thunder?
It will be another very nice and warm day for this time of year! 71 for a high at Reagan International Airport yesterday! Highs will again be in the mid and upper 60s! Tomorrow highs may struggle to the lower 50s! 50s will be the rule the rest of the week. We do have a good chance of rain tonight and early tomorrow.
The 50s will continue to rule through the weekend with dry conditions.
Next week there appears to be a chance of a coastal system that COULD cause rain and winds again in time for Thanksgiving. This is so far off, I would just make a note of it at this time!
All for now!
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Nice and warm today and tomorrow! Cooler weather returns after Tuesday rains
First off, than you Veterans for your service to this Country! We are thankful to live in a free country and the Best one in the World!
Next weekend into the following week looks like it COULD pose another storm system threat! Way to early to say how that one would play out, but some hints at a coastal low!
All for now!
Friday, November 09, 2012
Very nice weekend. 70s possible Sunday and Monday
The weather will turn warmer as sunny skies warm up things as well as a change in the wind direction. A few gusts of wind this morning, but a nice day with highs a little below normal. Tomorrow we will see highs in the 60s and then upper 60s to mid-70s Sunday and Monday. A pretty strong front will come through on Monday so that Tuesday we will see highs in the 50s for the most part and a chance of showers and even some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday, but we could see warmer temps again for a few days. Cooler air could visit the following week.
All for now!
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Cool and breezy today, warming over the weekend -5 days of dry weather!
Some absolute amazing numbers for the snow in the Northeast! Some areas in NJ seeing 15 inches of snow! The Nor’easter will still provide some breezes today and many in east MD and Delaware did see some flurry/wet snow flakes mixed in with some showers last evening. Definitely NOT the storm that I was thinking for the area a few days back. Now that we are in a Positive NAO state (North Atlantic Oscillation – Read more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_atlantic_oscillation) we will see milder conditions! Temps by Sunday and Monday will approach the 70s for southern areas and the 60s for many!
The next rain chances look to be Tuesday – There are signs this will be a very strong cold front and cause the chance for severe weather and gusty winds. Wednesday will feature a real cool down, but more mild weather looks to follow briefly. As of now, Thanksgiving week looks to be the transition back to colder weather and there are hints at possibly more storms as the NAO may go back to negative. That is too far out to be a sure thing at this time.
All for now!
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Snow flurries northern VA&Eastern MD EAST of I95
I see I have failed to update from the snow threat! Models took a high shift to the right and the snow threat is up in Philadelphia and NJ as well as Eastern PA. There could be some light accumulations in Northeastern MD and DE.
Cold weather next 3 days will turn much milder this weekend. The cold air looks to come back somewhere late next week into Thanksgiving time frame based on what I see.
All I have time for - sorry!
Jimmy
Cold weather next 3 days will turn much milder this weekend. The cold air looks to come back somewhere late next week into Thanksgiving time frame based on what I see.
All I have time for - sorry!
Jimmy
Monday, November 05, 2012
Snow is likely in parts of the area!
I cannot deny 12 runs of the European model showing a snow storm for parts of the region! We are early, and if it were December we would all be going crazy with the snow talk. It is November, and that still could mean snow will fly for parts of the region.
When? Wednesday rain will likely overspread the region from the south and cool the atmosphere so that snow starts falling in the higher (above 1000 feet area)
Where? The rain will need to cool the atmosphere a bit, and areas above 1000 feet will see snow after some initial rain. This is mainly a Northern VA event, into Maryland, and Central and Eastern PA. The snow levels could drop throughout the event and snow could start in the western suburbs overnight.
How much? Beats me! Climate says lower elevations would just see some dusting. The European and some models show much more! If I were to give an idea of how much I would say 3 to 6 inches above 1000 feet with the higher elevations seeing closer to the 6 inches. But as the colder air filters in, the western suburbs, at lower elevations, may see 1 - 3 inches! Yes - crazy!
What about the rest of the forecast?
Well Colder than normal temps will continue through Thursday and a milding up pattern after that with temps reaching the 60s and 70s by next Monday! The longer range outlook sees a chance of a significant front around the 15th and then a colder pattern with more possibilities of east coast storms!
Busy times ahead!
When? Wednesday rain will likely overspread the region from the south and cool the atmosphere so that snow starts falling in the higher (above 1000 feet area)
Where? The rain will need to cool the atmosphere a bit, and areas above 1000 feet will see snow after some initial rain. This is mainly a Northern VA event, into Maryland, and Central and Eastern PA. The snow levels could drop throughout the event and snow could start in the western suburbs overnight.
How much? Beats me! Climate says lower elevations would just see some dusting. The European and some models show much more! If I were to give an idea of how much I would say 3 to 6 inches above 1000 feet with the higher elevations seeing closer to the 6 inches. But as the colder air filters in, the western suburbs, at lower elevations, may see 1 - 3 inches! Yes - crazy!
What about the rest of the forecast?
Well Colder than normal temps will continue through Thursday and a milding up pattern after that with temps reaching the 60s and 70s by next Monday! The longer range outlook sees a chance of a significant front around the 15th and then a colder pattern with more possibilities of east coast storms!
Busy times ahead!
Sunday, November 04, 2012
Confidence index on storm Wednesday
- Low pressure will affect the region: High
- Rain as precipitation: Very confident
Accumulating snow:
- VA/MD - Above 1000 Feet - Medium/high
- PA - Above 1000 Feet - High
- Rt West along Rt 15 North of Charlottesville - Medium
Snow Flakes:
- I-95 to Rt 15 north of Frederiksburg - Medium
- Western MD - West of 95 - Medium
- West-Central - PA - high
A cold Nor'easter - If it were a month later - wow!
First we get through this weekend. It was a lot cloudier than I thought yesterday and then we have a system close enough by to the south that is causing some showers especially in NC. We get better clearing in the north. A cold night is in store for the area with freeze and frosts to hit the area and make sure that the growing season ends for some more of the area!
Our attention the turns to the Wednesday system. This one is so classic, but just early for all to see a big snow. You get above 1000 feet and that would likely be a different story! Snow, and maybe a pretty significant snow amount, appears likely. This would be NW VA, Western MD, Western PA -
Our attention the turns to the Wednesday system. This one is so classic, but just early for all to see a big snow. You get above 1000 feet and that would likely be a different story! Snow, and maybe a pretty significant snow amount, appears likely. This would be NW VA, Western MD, Western PA -
The reality for lower elevations will be very cold rains and some mixing with snow, especially west of I-95 north of Fredericksburg and down to Charlottesville. This will be a cold and windy rain for the coastal plains and then we have to worry about the shore and the heavy winds causing some floods.
We will see this system move out slowly. Then we will mild up for next weekend and may even see some 60s and 70s!
A lot more to come as details work out! I will again attempt to do a two times a day and more often likely at http://www.facebook.com/midatlanticweather and twitter at http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx
Will likely post a few thoughts after noon model runs.
All for now!
Saturday, November 03, 2012
Cool and then snow?
I need to really kick it back into high gear on posting! I have been very active at http://www.facebook.com/midatlanticweather and at http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx
In general we have a couple of camps next week - a model that phases (joins) 2 systems and causes a sizable Nor'easter and then models that come close to doing the same, and then others that let the system go out to sea!
What do I think?
I am seeing a phase, but not sure it is as aggressive as the European says. Also, I am skeptical of lower elevations seeing snow! You get to 1000 feet or above, I am more confident. That being said, if the storm system (happening some time between Tuesday Night and Thursday) does occur at night and does have heavy precipitation, elevations west of I-95 may see some snow and others a mix!
As of this AM - posted by Henry Margusity of Accuweather - the European snow map shows this!
I remain reserved for this region seeing snow, but further North I am pretty convinced as long as we see the phasing! That being said there are elements there that would lead me to believe snow could fly. If I sound unsure, well I am!
In the near term:
Cool conditions in general persist with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for most.
Cool and sunny day today and a bit of clouds tomorrow!
More later!
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
For coastal zones - time to make preparations
This storm will be very strong. You will have to deal with it like in a Hurricane, but this wind field will expand and will be felt from NC/VA to Maine! Do not focus on the exact landfall as the affects will be over a huge area! The Mountains of West MD, Northern WV, And west PA could have a devastating snow storm! Flurries and snow showers could reach DC and Richmond by Wednesday! This will be an incredible storm! Stay tuned, prepare, and stay tuned in to weather and news outlets!
All for now!
All for now!
Update on Storm for Sunday - Tuesday!
Due to extenuating circumstances I have not been able to update!
What I know:
What I know:
- Sandy is a Hurricane and is strengthening steadily! The strength of her is an important ingredient in this situation.
- We are still days away! Models are shifting around but are converging on an East coast system/ hybrid Hurricane - exact details are tough, but it looks significant
- If things materialized this system will be a multi-punch system!
- Winds along coast and inland
- Very heavy rains, especially along coastal plains
- Storm surge and coastal flooding
- Heavy mountain snows - 12"+ amounts in higher elevations
- Where???? Based on model projection and, NOT YET a forecast -
- East of I-95 for areas of NC, VA, MD, Central PA, look bad
- DE, NJ, Eastern PA, NY, and MA look Severe!
- SO MANY variables so do not get locked in on details, but be prepared! Stay tuned for future updates!
All for now!
Friday, October 19, 2012
Clearing day and then Great week of weather ahead!
The storms and needed rains of last night are departing and there is some residual cloudiness and fog burning off, but the day looks to get better and better as it goes along with many in the 70s today.
Weekend looks great! Awesome site seeing time with so many trees in color! Highs will be in the seasonal 60s and nights in the 40s (cooler mountains)
Next week is as good of a forecast as you can get! Highs daily in the 70s and nights 40s and 50s. I am not seeing a rain chance until a week from Sunday!
Enjoy the weather. A strong front and cooler weather look likely the following week.
Awesome stuff!
Of note, a lot of model runs point to a Tropical system in the gulf next week. We will see!
All for now!
Weekend looks great! Awesome site seeing time with so many trees in color! Highs will be in the seasonal 60s and nights in the 40s (cooler mountains)
Next week is as good of a forecast as you can get! Highs daily in the 70s and nights 40s and 50s. I am not seeing a rain chance until a week from Sunday!
Enjoy the weather. A strong front and cooler weather look likely the following week.
Awesome stuff!
Of note, a lot of model runs point to a Tropical system in the gulf next week. We will see!
All for now!
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Warm with a chance of Severe today!! Beautiful weekend! Very warm next year!
Risk of severe continues into the night. Again, the biggest risk is winds, but an isolated tornado could occur. The severe does not look widespread. Rain is more likely this afternoon and could last into the evening! Temps in the 70s and breezy conditions. Showers could linger into tomorrow morning and highs again tomorrow will reach the 70s.
This weekend looks great with highs in the 60s and clear skies!
Next week looks warm! A large storm will be advancing across the country and strong southerly winds should pump up the temps. That storm will arrive, probably next weekend and we should watch for another severe threat then, That will set the stage to a cool/cold spell for the following week. Long term I see this being a temporary cool down!
All for now!
Jimmy
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Slight Risk of Severe Thursday! Seasonal Weekend! Warm next week!
The system that will be coming through could bring gusty winds in showers and storms!
The SPC has highlighted good amount of the area with a slight risk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
The weekend looks really nice! Fall like with colors at peak or close to it in the mountains! Go take a look and some photos!
Next week we look to really warm up. 70s will be widespread. A colder shot should visit after that, but it looks transient!
My winter forecast will be out by the end of the weekend!
All for now!
The SPC has highlighted good amount of the area with a slight risk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
The weekend looks really nice! Fall like with colors at peak or close to it in the mountains! Go take a look and some photos!
Next week we look to really warm up. 70s will be widespread. A colder shot should visit after that, but it looks transient!
My winter forecast will be out by the end of the weekend!
All for now!
Slight risk of severe! Warmer next week!
The system that will be coming through could bring gusty winds in showers and storms!
The SPC has highlighted good amount of the area with a slight risk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
The weekend looks really nice! Fall like with colors at peak or close to it in the mountains! Go take a look and some photos!
Next week we look to really warm up. 70s will be widespread. A colder shot should visit after that, but it looks transient!
My winter forecast will be out by the end of the weekend!
All for now!
The SPC has highlighted good amount of the area with a slight risk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
The weekend looks really nice! Fall like with colors at peak or close to it in the mountains! Go take a look and some photos!
Next week we look to really warm up. 70s will be widespread. A colder shot should visit after that, but it looks transient!
My winter forecast will be out by the end of the weekend!
All for now!
Slight risk of Severe tomorrow! Seasonal weekend! Warm next week!
The system that will be coming through could bring gusty winds in showers and storms!
The SPC has highlighted good amount of the area with a slight risk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
The weekend looks really nice! Fall like with colors at peak or close to it in the mountains! Go take a look and some photos!
Next week we look to really warm up. 70s will be widespread. A colder shot should visit after that, but it looks transient!
My winter forecast will be out by the end of the weekend!
All for now!
The SPC has highlighted good amount of the area with a slight risk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
The weekend looks really nice! Fall like with colors at peak or close to it in the mountains! Go take a look and some photos!
Next week we look to really warm up. 70s will be widespread. A colder shot should visit after that, but it looks transient!
My winter forecast will be out by the end of the weekend!
All for now!
Slight severe risk tomorrow! Nice Weekend! Warmer next week!
The system that will be coming through could bring gusty winds in showers and storms!
The SPC has highlighted good amount of the area with a slight risk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
The weekend looks really nice! Fall like with colors at peak or close to it in the mountains! Go take a look and some photos!
Next week we look to really warm up. 70s will be widespread. A colder shot should visit after that, but it looks transient!
My winter forecast will be out by the end of the weekend!
All for now!
The SPC has highlighted good amount of the area with a slight risk. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif
The weekend looks really nice! Fall like with colors at peak or close to it in the mountains! Go take a look and some photos!
Next week we look to really warm up. 70s will be widespread. A colder shot should visit after that, but it looks transient!
My winter forecast will be out by the end of the weekend!
All for now!
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