Final call: I HOPE I AM WRONG AND THERE IS MORE SNOW! At this point radar watching and Nowcasting

2/12 ICY MESS ON TAP! SNOW AMOUNTS REDUCED

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SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM POSSIBLE

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Well, with models and an imperfect science it is hard to get forecasting right! Here we go with what appears to be a major Icing Event the majority of which looks like it will be Tuesday Night into Wednesday. For tonight into tomorrow light snow with a general 1-4" accumulation could occur from a Roanoke to Charlttesville to Fredericksburg to Baltimore line and areas 20 miles south and east of that line. Some mixing with rain is likely at onset. Tuesday would be a light snow changing to sleet and even rain for Roanoke to Fredericksburg to south and east of Baltimore. Areas from Charlottesville to Washington DC to Baltimore will see a changeover to sleet and then Freezing rain Tuesday evening as heavier precipitation takes hold. Right now the distinct possibility exists for as much as 3/4" to even 1" of ice! The issue will be.. is it sleet or freezing rain. The further north and west may split totals between sleet and freezing rain, but 20 miles either side of and north of the Charlottesville to Washington DC to Baltimore areas could see a significant Ice Storm!

Please stay tuned to Media and Weather Outlets.

Sorry, no time to draw out thoughts this morning on a map.

BTW.. thing ** COULD ** change as we are still a ways away from the main storm system. I will be watching trends and reporting on them especially in the Forum.

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
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OK. My First Guess. What I would say.. VERY concerned about a major ice storm in the Piedmont of Virginia and Maryland and SE PA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY except I do think the mix will cut down on snow totals in many areas. If it stays snow.. 12" would b possible in areas N and W of the big cities

2/11 HEAVY WINTER STORM TUESDAY

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HEAVY SNOW STORM WITH POSSIBLE ICING

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Things are lining up for a major Winter Storm. Especially  north of Fredericksburg . Areas could see up to a foot and some places more especially in Maryland. MANY factors could change who get the biggest snows and even ice storm possibilities. Best Chances seem to be Washington, DC to Charlottesville and north as well as up to Baltimore and North. Ice could really become an issue in the transition area.

This one is a serious one. Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets.

More to come!

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LARGE SNOWSTORM FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY! WE ARE IN STORM ALERT MODE! Places COULD see 10 - 20" and near blizzard condition!! Ice probable in many areas near southern piedmont! This is not clear yet.. Much more to come!

2/6 Light Snow event tonight will ALL stick!

Light Snow Tonight!

 

A light snow event tonight will drop a 1-3" swath of snow mainly cutting across the central part of Virginia. Light snow will quickly stick to all surfaces though as the ground and roads are so cold. Areas draw a line horizontal from Roanoke to Richmond and then from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg and the areas between and along those lines have the best chance of the 3" totals. Areas north of that line will see totals back off to 1" in Northern VA and a dusting in Maryland, and south will quickly drop to just a dusting.

 

Despite this, the very cold ground could make tomorrow morning the worst winter weather commute we have had this winter! Be careful!

 

 

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2/1 Winter Weather Threat: Canceled!

MAYBE some pockets in SW Va and western Piedmont south of Charottesville but by and large just spotty showers, some snow, some sleet. This one was not too big (at least up in VA) but was for western NC and SC!

 

Sorry all! Yes, there is another storm possible in about 1 week! we will see! The real story, VERY COLD next week!

 

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2/1 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

2 waves of precipitation, Snow to a mix, but maybe a good amount of snow for Higher elevations in SW VA

 

North of Roanoke in the Mountains towards SW VA and Northeast up to just SW of Charlottesville could see the most snow with 3-6" shot.

 

Areas along I-95 to 30 miles east, 1-2" then a mix. Precip amounts could approach Winter Storm warning of .25" along I-95 and west up to about Ashland.

 

1-3" of Snow north of here along I-95 up to Baltimore and ares 20 miles either side of I-95. Again, a mix tomorrow night.

 

1-4" west of the I-95 area from Western Loudoun and Frederick Count MD above down to Charlottesville. Closer to 4" in the southern areas of that region, less towards the MD/VA Border.

 

Models are split tonight! Thus the larger ranges. This one has some surprise potential especially looking at the large snow sheild on Radar.

 

Tweaking likely tomorrow, but light snow may overspread most of the area by morning in the south and by noon, Nortehrn VA and by 3pm in Maryland.

 

All for now!

 

 
 

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1/31/2007 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

Sloppy Thursday Night Winter weather will pose problems for many.

A storm system will bring snow over the area Thursday but the system will also bring warmer air in over top the cold air that is in place. This warm air will turn most areas from the mountains east over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain. On the latest model runs the precipitation amounts have backed off somewhat so it is possible the ice will not b major up further north, but the North Carolina Piedmont to the mounts into southwestern Virginia up to about Charlottesville and eastward towards the western Suburbs of Richmond could see ice up to the .25" needed for major issues. The ground is cold too so this time the ice will cause serious driving problems. Ice could reach that much up in areas north of these so all motorists will need to be using caution, but a 1-3" snow may precede the ice as well.

More to Come as things hopefully clear up on the forecast models!

 

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So cold arrives, a few snow shots have visited, a few more on the way, but a big storm this week may be a mix to rain, or snow to rain scenario as the NAO is not sticking negative. Another serious COLD shot appears likely to follow the big storm and could be the coldest of the season

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Summary: Thanks Wasted cold air! That is my thoughts of the cold that brings no snow. I like cold for winter, but i like snow to be with it and we just cannot get a good storm to form with the colder air in place. So, finally we see a good storm on the horizon, and the pattern changes enough to allow the colder air to retreat! So if we get winter weather, it will likely be a snow or mix to rain scenario! A lot could change in the next several days, but this is not looking classic big snows like it appeared the last couple days. I will hold off on a total cancel, but lower the likelihood to like 40% chance of a big storm.

After this, a cold shot (potentially the coldest of the season) will likely visit from next weekend into early next week.

As far as tonight into tomorrow, it has some potential to surprise a few folks with more than what would appear likely, but pinpointing who and whether or not this will really happen will be really tough to pinpoint.

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum (up to 97 members!). http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

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Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

1/28 Mid Atlantic Weather Alert: Isolated accumulations

Scattered Snowshowers this afternoon. Chance of a little accumulation possible in the western Mountains and Far northastern Maryland as well as eastern PA and NJ could see isolated accumulating snows in the 1-3" category.  Pinpointing exactly where is very difficult as it will be on a meso scale level. Elsewhere in areas north of Fredericksburg to a Charlottesville in Virginia and all through Maryland may say enough to dust some grassy areas. The system gives me a bit of concern that a few areas could be surprised by more snow than thought so check radars later today!

 

Late next week Storm looking less likely! Pattern will relax just enough to have a mix or snow to rain scenario based on current model readings!

 

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Concern... but not definite snow possibility for Sunday/Monday

SOME CONCERN: I have some concern of a Sunday Snow shaping up for eastern regions! Cold will also return and maybe a big storm next week. Enjoy a Saturday reprieve from the cold!
 

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SERIOUS COLD SHOT COULD BE ON THE HORIZON. HARD TO SEE ANY STORMS WITH SUCH COLD AIR, BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THERE IS SOMETHING THAT COULD HAPPEN

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Summary: Really tired here, but I want people to know that the cold shot seen on the latest Model Runs are downright impressive with highs coming next week in the lower to mid 20s if this verifies. Single Digit numbers possible at night in some locations. There are signs that there could be a system at some point in the next 7-10 days, but right now, the cold is overwhelming the snow chances!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum (up to 96 members!). http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

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Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Snow will Visit Region with 1-3" and mixes as well. 1-3" will fall from a n area north Charlottesville to Fredericksburg line and South of a Frederick county to Baltimore county line. Then a mix will occur from Richmond Southwest to the areas just east of the North Carolina Mountains. It would appear that .10 to .25" of ice is possible, the heaviest in Valleys and areas just east of the Mountains (Up to 40 miles east of Mountains in the Piedmont.) This is not a huge event, but ice would be an issue for travel. Precip will start later in the morning in the SW and late in the day for the northern parts. Snow will end as freezing drizzle. Of note, when these storms are ideal some places get some heavier precip so isolated 4-5" totals on snow would not surprise me! Later next week, POTENTIAL, Really is there for a good snow for parts of the region! I will keep you posted. No time to do a map tonight, MAY have one tomorrow Morning!!!!

1/18/2007 Winter Weather Alert

Light accumulations of a Mixture of Precip

 

Light Snow, Sleet, and Rain and Freezing Rain will all visit the Regions, but mainly the North Carolina and Southern Virginia regions. The mixture could cause some icing troubles, especially this morning in North Carlina and Southern Virginia as only a small coating of ice could cause havoc. Please stay alert and tuned in to Local News and Radio outlets for updates on your regions weather.

 

There is a possibility of a more significant storm on Sunday Night and again North Carolina and Southern Virginia could be the more problematic spots based on current model read out. This could significantly change between now and Sunday Evening.

 

Stay Alert!

 

All for now!
 

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Will it snow tomorrow night? Honestly, I am not that psyched about the chances. This is not a classic snow situation, but some precip does look likely in the east, and yes, sleet and some snow flakes are not out of the question. I think the NWS in Northern Virginia was very bullish and way overdone. I do not see 1-2" tomorrow night. Maybe a dusting if we get the temps to cool after sunset and precip is left. That being said Northeast, towards Baltimore.. a dusting seems possible. SUNDAY is a different story all together. That now has an increasingly good look for a decent snowfall and wintry weather event! Things may change, but this is how I see things today!

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Here comes the colder air... FINALLY! When will it snow? Do not be surprised to see sleet and snow mixed with rain far east Thursday night. Maybe a more significant system Monday.. will it stay snow?

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Summary: Crazy winter has been so warm, but a turn to colder is happening today as an arctic front has pushed through. Temps will fall and tomorrow highs will be in the 30s to lower 40s. But this is not a sticking colder than normal pattern, just seasonal so we moderate to the 40s the rest of the week into the weekend. A storm system will approach from the south Monday and precip very well could begin as snow or a mix. Will it stay wintry? Right now, odds are against it. The upper pattern is not allowing cold to be forced to stick around, so it will get scoured out unless a block appears that I do not see. Now after this system, there are ** SIGNS ** of a possible negative NAO which would be the first time since October! We will see as this has been advertised before. Seasonal cold looks like it will remain at least.

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum (up to 93 members!). http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

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Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

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Warm and moist weekend is going to turn into a cold and drier pattern. Maybe a nwo in a week?

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Summary: Showery weekend with mild conditions. A front will pass through later Monday and temperatures next week will struggl to get out of the 30s and lower 40s. The cold will overwhelm teh country and pretty much dry it out! In about 8 days there AMY be a major east coast storm which will need to be watched.

Did you happen to see the LA hills got snow! Crazy that areas so far south in the west got snow! Not a lot else to share so All for Now!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum (up to 91 members!). http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

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Not a lot of time, but wanted to say a few things. Warming up, rain to much colder! Will it be Dry?

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Summary: It will be rather mil this weekend with scattered showers as a strong southerly flow is present. Once a very potent, and possibly thunderstorm producing front makes it through here Monday we will be in the colder pattern for next week and possibly beyond. The concern for winter weather is the lack of atmospheric blocking, or basically anything that could help a system to get organized and move north with snow! So we could go from way above normal temps and precip to below normal and dry!

That being said, models are not the best at pattern change time so we could be seeing something appear on the global models in the next few days that they are missing now!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum (just surpassed 90 members!). http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

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Colder air is coming, but another short warm up is likely and then even a chance of yet more heavy rains and even thunder

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Summary: Just been waiting for a major pattern change and the process has begun! Now it is a matter of time. I have had a lot of promise for next week's possibilities of snow after the first larger storm system comes through here Monday - Tuesday. This will usher in the colder January air that we have seriously lacked! Now once established, we have to see if we can get a storm. Models have backed off a lot on prospects for this, but support still gives me a sense that we could see something appear before too long!

Tomorrow will be a lot colder than we have had in a while as highs struggle up to the low and mid 40s. Warmer conditions with a lot of clouds this weekend and then a good chance of rain into early next week!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum (approaching 90 members!). http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Did You Know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

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Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.