Winter Weather Alert - Minor event for many!

After last week I wanted to stress that this is not going to be a big snow or ice event for most of the Middle Atlantic until you cross into PA and NJ. For the Northern VA and DC as well as Maryland a period of light snow and sleet will be likely tomorrow night into Tuesday morning. This could make commuting a hassle Tuesday Morning and could delay schools. The temps will then stay cool, but not cold enough for snow. Along the MD/PA border there could be a couple of inches before the changeover to freezing rain and rain Tuesday.

For VA - The immediate Piedmont and valleys could see some freezing rain - north of Charlottesville there will likely be Winter Weather Advisory condition as well as Western Loudoun (I-15 and west)

MD - Along the PA/MD border could have 2-3" of snow before the changeover,

PA - Ice storm criteria could be met for the southern half of the state - Precip will oscillate between sleet and ice as well as snow which will be prevalent at the start (Tuesday) and towards the end of the storm. In between, for many, a havy steady rain will also fall which will cause some concern for flooding. Spend today freeing run off areas to avoid flooding issues. Northern half of PA will be a serious snow and sleet threat!

NJ - Western and NW areas, especially valleys will see an icing issue. Snow with be the predominant type Tuesday and then mixing to sleet and ice, more quickly along the coast. Rain will then surge to most of the area by Wednesday Morning.

BTW - this storm is just huge! Check all the watches and warnings at Weather.gov to get some perspective. If I were traveling this week I would be very worried!

All for now!

 

Forecast Video for January 30, 2011

I am hoping, at some point, to supply what little snow storm video capturing information that I did Wednesday up on the site. Today will feature cold conditions. This morning freezing fog caused a serious crash in central Virginia, so it shows you that you do not need to have precipitation to have a serious weather situation. Regional Breakdown

NC - Seeing the mildest weather in a while - Temps will be in the 50s and even 60s in some areas.
VA - South seeing milder 50s n the south, but still cloudy and foggy in the middle part. In the north some snow showers possible and highs in the 30s to low 40s.
MD - Snow showers - highs mainly in the 30s
PA - Snow Showers and light snow - 1 to 2 central - 2-6 west
NJ - light snow showers - 1 - 2 inches

Longer range: A low will move well west of the Appalachian mountains. Rain may be freezing in the VA and MD Piedmont, but heavier rain appears to be in the forecast. The colder air will not be dislodged from PA and NY as well as New England. New England will again be buried with snows of 1 to 2 feet and ice will also be a concern for areas in valleys of Central PA and NJ. Lastly, a lot of rain on snow pack may bring some flooding concerns to parts of PA and Southern NJ. Make sure the snow is pulled away from the house and drains can drain.

All for now.

Video is out also highlighting what I am seeing with the models.

Snowing quite well and will for a bit longer

Northern VA, DC, and Maryland may end up with an additional inch of snow today as the snow keeps on flying!

January 28,2011 Outlook

I made this Video Earlier Today!

Snow will be heavier this afternoon and into tonight

After a morning slug d moisture that actually had accumulations of up to 3" in spots, the main part of this storm will really get cranking up this afternoon. Heavy snow will fall between 2 and 10pm. Snow totals of what is left will be in the 4 to 7 range west and north of the I-95 corridor and 3 to 6 looks more likely now near the major cities.

There will be a Lull in the precip until the second part of the storm arrives. The evening commute for many will be a real challenge!

All for now.

Snow map was posted last night at http://www.midatlanticweather.com. Not so sure about the 12" possibilities, but will be fun to see what verifies.

All for now!

Snow Map

My current job is in the way of a new post! (And it should)

I will definitely update and have a snow map later tonight!

Many to see snow - thinking 3-6 inches with some seeing 8" or more for areas along and west of I-95. Parameters need to be set and will soon!

Tweets ongoing at http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx

Milder day before snow on the way for west areas

Today will see temps jump up into the 40s to low 50s. Temps will be a factor in the weather the next 24 hours. Precipitation will start to overtake the region starting way SW this afternoon and then spreading northward. The mountains and immediate Piedmont look to see snow and sleet mixed while the Piedmont up to I-95 may see a mix of rain and sleet with some snow in the western portions. Wednesday still remains tricky as the mixed regions will likely warm a bit so rain is possible for a period of time, and then areas quickly get colder later afternoon to switch to snow. At this time, I do think from Charlottesville to Washington's Dulles airport to 30 miles west of Baltimore and points west could see 3 to 6 inches with isolated spots seeing near 8". Mountains could see 6 to 10 inches with some up to 12".

The storm totals will also be stretching up into the Northeast.

This will be a tough forecast day and I will have some updates through the day and break it down by region later.

All for now!

Potential Winter Storm Mid Week

Sending a quick outlook on the potential storm this Wednesday. The storm will be very marginal in temperature along I-95 which will make this a somewhat difficult forecast. There are many factors with this storm that make it not an Ideal (for snow lovers) track for a lot of snow.

 

1. No Real blocking up north to hold cold air.

2. Storm comes in to departing colder air - the Arctic blast is moving away

3. A more wound up storm will flood the area with warm air

4. A weaker storm may end up with a light snow event.

 

What I do believe:

1. I-81 corridor of VA will see snow.'

2. The immediate Piedmont of the mountains could see the most snow.

3. Areas about 30 miles east of the immediate Piedmont could be the location where snow to a mix and then back to snow will occur.. ironically the higher precip amounts could offset the amounts due to mixing.

4. East of I-95 will see rain with some mixing at the end of the event.

 

There is a lot of time to monitor. Areas up north of VA and NC will also see a lot of snow and Southern New England may again be in the heavy snow!

 

A lot to watch so please check back as we get closer. Planning on a map by tomorrow late.

 

All for now!

 

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Snow kind of fizzled - VERY COLD and the Next week challenge

First off the weather system overnight did not do what was forecasted by many. The "jump" of energy to the coast took too long and warmer air remained keeping temps above freezing. So nothing at all accumulated! A miss by most all people reading models.

But we are at the warmest part of the day as temps will fall and winds will increase causing a blustery day with highs falling to 30 or below areas east of the mountains, and teens to single digits west by nightfall. Add blustery winds, and you bet there are wind chill advisories!

Cold weekend will mean highs pretty much in the mid to upper 20s for both days.

An odd set up of a system is looking likely early next week, and despite cold air this weekend, a snow to mix to even rain event is looking possible. Ironically, on this system, the weaker it is, the more likely snow will fall for most of the event. As of now, the low really is strong and this may be an Appalachian mountains big snow with a lot of mix and rains east of there. A lot to ponder.

All for now!

Snow on the way - very cold - another snow possible!

The weather today will be much cooler than yesterday. I was surprised by the highs reaching into the 50s for many. Today will see some breezy conditions with highs upper 30s (North) to mid 40s (South).

Tonight, snow will be likely through the area but areas south of Fredericksburg are likely to see mixing with rain. Accumulations will be in the trace to 1"  from the I-66 corridor up to the MD/VA Line - 1 to 2 inches for Maryland but approaching 2- 4 for the PA/MD border counties. 2-4 inches for south half of PA, NJ, and all of WV with some higher amounts to 5". NJ could see the south half with 2-4" and the north 4 to 6". WV, MD, and PA mountains will see 4 to 6".

Tomorrow will be cold and windy with highs in the 20s in the north and 30s south.

The weekend will continue cold with highs upper 20s to mid 30s for the region. Night time lows will be in the teens for most and single digits possible north and mountains.

We will be watching a snow threat early next week but temps may warm and cause some mixing or even rain for some.

More to come!

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All for now!

SNOW ALERT - Small Event

It does appear a period of snow will occur tomorrow night for the northern third of VA. For areas along the VA and MD border 1 to as much as 2 inches seems possible. In MD, 1 to 3 inches with the lesser towards southern areas. For the southern half of PA it appears that 2 - 5 inches could occur. A slight bit more possible in NJ with 3 to as much as 6 inches in isolated locations.

 

More can be found an http://midatlanticwinter.blogspot.com -

 

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All for now!

 

 

Dense fog - then clearing - small snow event on the way for North regions

We have a lot of dense fog this morning all across the region. Rain showers across the south will slowly move out and the sun will break through later today. Temps in the north will climb to the upper 30s while the south is going to be quite mild today with temps topping out in the low and mid 50s!

Cool enough air and a low will track through the region tomorrow night. A swath of snow covering areas of Virginia north of Fredericksburg and all of Maryland looks likely. 1 to 3 inches appears possible with the least amounts in the south part of that region and closer to 3 along the PA/MD border. Even heavier snow across PA, NJ, and DE with 2 to 4 inches and then along the Northeast areas seeing 3 -6 or even 4-8 near New York and Southern New England with areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches up there.

All for now!

Yes - 2 snow chances in the medium to long term

I am hoping to update late tonight, but initial thoughts are a 1 to 4
inch range Thursday night into Friday. More north and less south and
the Northern third of VA, MD will see this. More will occur up
northeast in NJ, and East PA.

Another storm threat Monday night into Tuesday.

All for now!

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Sent from my mobile device

Updates - Some sleet mix tonight - Rain South/Snow North on Friday but not big.

Just a quick update to note that tonight we will see mainly rain showers with some sleet and maybe a few flakes towards the end of some of the precipitation in the north. Rain showers for the most part.

Friday looks like some rain in the southern half of Virginia, mix possible across the middle part of the state and snow northern VA and MD.


More later!

Icy Morning! Pictures!

Icy mess

Be extremely careful. Temps in N VA and MD will not be as warm today
as expected. Mid 30s seem more likely. More snow MAY fall tonight. I
will assess a bit later this morning. BE VERY careful out there!

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Sent from my mobile device

Mixed precip to cause some issues - Modest & cold rain on the way

Today rain mixed with sleet will overspread the area, and this will turn to light snow and sleet in Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. There is a chance that a dusting to an inch of snow and sleet occurs before several hours of light freezing rain. When the heavier rainfall comes the temperatures are likely to rise and the region will go over to a moderate to heavy rain for a while.

There could be a return to some snow tomorrow night as some more moisture comes over the region, but all in all, the biggest impact appears to be between 7pm this evening and 3am tomorrow morning.

Areas affected - Mainly west of I-95 north of Fredericksburg. The Immediate Piedmont of VA from Roanoke up to Leesburg VA and west could see ice and areas of Northern VA west of I-15 could see the worst of it with ice into the morning rush.

Longer term we will have to watch this weekend as now models have done some changing with the system,

If I did not say it before, the weather this week will be very hard to pinpoint.

All for now!