2/28 Final Call

Big Winter Storm Commencing!

What?

Major Winter Storm

When?

From Tonight Through Late Tuesday Night, though bulk will fall next 24 hours

How Much?

I have my final call map here: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/2_28_2005_F.gif

Some Locations:

Hagerstown: 8-10

Dulles: 8-10

Washington DC: 6-8

Fairfax: 8-10

Charlottesville: 8-10

Lynchburg: 4-6 some Freezing Rain

Roanoke: 8-10

Wytheville: 8-10

Danville: 1-3 Freezing Rain Threat

Richmond: 1-3 To Rain

Fredericksburg: 4-6

NOTE: These could be underdone! There will be Thundersnows tomorrow and I could really be under doing the amounts! I am playing it safe with eth QPF from models Also, the area expecting a large mix.. if it is snow.. that will be much higher!

Concerns:

1. Models suddenly warmer and less precip. Is this true? Doubt it looking at Radar.

2. Really, my concern is that the precip totals could be too low!

3. May see a regeneration of snow again tomorrow night as the Upper level system comes through

4. Winds will start to be an issue tomorrow night… This could mean we get to Blizzard Conditions? That will need toe be assessed tomorrow and more likely north of our region of the country

5. Far western VA and Maryland (western facing slopes)could see a serious amount of snow tomorrow night into Tuesday from wrap around and that upper level disturbance.

All for now.

Please join the forum and give your updates on the storm!http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

2/27 DC/MD/VA Major Snowstorm Possible

Major Winter Strom/Blizzard possible Monday!

 

What? Major Winter Storm appears to be taking shape

 

When? Late Tomorrow night into Tuesday

 

Where? This is tricky! Preliminary Thoughts.. see map

 http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/2_28_2005_2.gif

 

There may be enough wind to cause Blizzard conditions!

 

There is enough variance in the models to either trump I-95 areas up to the immediate piedmont with less snow and more mix or even pull the storm further east!

 

More later!

 

 

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12/27 BIG SNOW LIKELY!

Heavy Snowstorm! Summary: A major snowstorm looks like it is headed for the region. I-95 cities to the Mountains can easily see 6-12” especially the Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and All of central and western Maryland. Potential for 12-24" not out of the question on some models! There is the potential for Thundersnows as well and very very heavy snowfall in banding Time constraints limit my abilities to post a map until later tonight.. But it looks big starting after midnight tonight.

12/27 Big Snow on the Way

Heavy Snowstorm! Summary: A major snowstorm looks like it is headed for the region. I-95 cities to the Mountains can easily see 6-12” especially the Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and All of central and western Maryland. Potential for 12-24" not out of the question on some models! There is the potential for Thundersnows as well and very very heavy snowfall in banding Time constraints limit my abilities to post a map until later tonight.. But it looks big starting after midnight tonight.

12/27 Heavy Snow Storm on The way

Heavy Snowstorm! Summary: A major snowstorm looks like it is headed for the region. I-95 cities to the Mountains can easily see 6-12” especially the Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and All of central and western Maryland. Potential for 12-24" not out of the question on some models! There is the potential for Thundersnows as well and very very heavy snowfall in banding Time constraints limit my abilities to post a map until later tonight.. But it looks big starting after midnight tonight.

12/27 Heavy Snow Storm on The way

Heavy Snowstorm! Summary: A major snowstorm looks like it is headed for the region. I-95 cities to the Mountains can easily see 6-12” especially the Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and All of central and western Maryland. Potential for 12-24" not out of the question on some models! There is the potential for Thundersnows as well and very very heavy snowfall in banding Time constraints limit my abilities to post a map until later tonight.. But it looks big starting after midnight tonight.

Major Winter Strom/Blizzard possible Monday!

What? Major Winter Storm appears to be taking shape

When? Late Tomorrow night into Tuesday

Where? This is tricky! Preliminary Thoughts.. see map

http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/2_28_2005_2.gif

There may be enough wind to cause Blizzard conditions!

There is enough variance in the models to either trump I-95 areas up to the immediate piedmont with less snow and more mix or even pull the storm further east!

2/26 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

Winter Storm Alert.. BIG STORM LIKELY!

What?

This is a big storm and HUGE Nor’easter for the Northeastern US. Coastal areas will see heavy rains for sure and inland, a variety of precipitation types until you reach higher elevations where serious snows could accumulate.

When?

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night.

Where?

Mainly Central and Western Virginia and Maryland in the Northern ½ of Virginia and all of Maryland. Especially West of I-95 in this region. (Map Helps!)

How Much?

See Map for my Preliminary thoughts!http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/02_28_2005_.gif

Concerns?

1. Low track is uncertain! Further east/ historic snows for all of central and Western VA. Further west, heavy, even flooding rains!
2. Cold air is marginal. I think the dynamics of the storm will produce its own cold so this is not a major concern, but, precip will mix heavily as the low cranks up and throws warm air from the ocean into colder air. Exception will likely be the Mountains, but sleet there would not surprise me either!
3. There looks like there will be a big Dry Slot (Area where precip does not fall) and it could set up over the central regions. Interesting how many models seem to see this.
4. Flooding Rains? Maybe if track is inland. Think longer term this will be an issue if we get a good snow pack in regions and then warm up.
5. Severe?If far enough west, eastern, and especially southeastern Virginia have a risk for severe storms.

Some Notes:

• Meteorologists I trust are split on the track!
• This storm has some great positives and negatives about it and the next 24-36 hours of models are going to say a lot about the outcome, but the event may have to be unfolding before we get a real sense of what will happen

All for now!

2/25 DC/VA/MD Snow Alert

Big Storm Monday likely to start as Snow for areas central and west and may stay that way west of I-95, especially higher elevations! I will do a full update later tonight or early tomorrow morning! Mountains, get ready! West of I-95 for the Northern half of the area! Stay alert! If, by chance, things line up, there could be locally 1 to 2 feet of snow in areas! The higher your elevation, the more concerned you need to be! More to come! All for Now!

2/24 DC/MD/VA Final Call

Snow Alert Final Call

What: moderate to potentially heavy Snow event.

Where: Today we had a major Shift North. Southern VA likely to see rain. Northern Virginia and Maryland will see Moderate to heavy accumulations

Final Calls for some select locations.

Dulles – 4-8

DC – 3-6

Baltimore - 4-8

Hagerstown - 6-10

Charlottesville – 3-6

Orange – 3-6

Fredericksburg – 3-6

Spotsylvania – 3-6

Ashland – 1-3

Richmond – 1-3

Roanoke – 1-3

Lynchburg - 2-4

See Map: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/2_24_2005_f.gif

When: Starting: 2 am Southwest. Overspreading the north by 9 am. Expecting heavier snow between 10 am and 3 pm .. may see a lull and then a regeneration of light snow tomorrow evening and night in the North.

Concerns:

1. Limiting factor may be the convection to our south

2. Mix may make it to DC suburbs south of town

3. Could see cold air wrap into system and give some snow back to south central regions

4. Snow deformation line/wrap around possible Central Maryland into Northern Virginia

2nd Guess: Note Shift to the North

Note the shift to the North. This may not be done.

First Guess

2/22 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

Yes Virginia it is a Snow Storm Thursday! Northern VA and Maryland some snow, middle Virginia looks like the jackpot! A big Nor’easter will come knocking Monday, but, where is the cold! Third Monday in a row where the cold air vacates the premises before a storm bears down on us. Next week may hold record cold with a possible late week snowstorm too.

Summary:

Weather wise this is an exciting week. Virginia may break their snow drought a bit with a moderate snow event Thursday. I have been discussing this possibility on the Forum and even posted my thoughts this morning on amounts. Expect alerts this afternoon. The northern cut off to snow may end up being sharp so Northern Virginia into Maryland could see little from this storm if suppression occurs (High to the North too powerful for northward precip and too dry so it never really snows much!). Today and tomorrow should be seasonal temperature wise, then Thursday into the weekend we actually are below normal. As the cold departs Sunday and Monday, a very strong southern system begins its northward move. Questions fly about precip types, but, current model output shows the snow threat would mainly be the mountains ( if even there). My reading of meteorologist input says that there are 2 camps for this big event and there could end up being quite a snowy picture. A wait and see on that, but current reading is as stated above. Expect more swings on it. Also of note, the dynamics on Thursday’s event do show the possible northward adjustment of snow so that Northern VA and Maryland would be more involved.

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Enjoy this day!

Wednesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Cooler.

Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Snow Likely.. mix along NC/VA Border. See Snow Alert for details http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com for details or the forum!

Friday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Cool

Saturday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Cool.

Sunday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-45 N: 40-50

Cool.

Long Term:

Huge Storm Monday. Likely rain at this time could be major snow for Mountains. Huge Cool Down likely and possible late week snow to deal with again.

All for Now!

2/21 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Yes, I should have seen the writing on the walls yesterday and called off the snow! This week presents seasonal temps starting Wednesday and yet something else to watch Friday into the weekend.

 

Summary:

Strom Recap: Heard reports of sleet mainly, and I saw this too at about midnight last night.. That was it! No Accumulations! Precip was slower to arrive yesterday than I thought which helped to offset any evaporational cooling or to stop warmer reading from sunshine (which I saw a little of in the morning)! Gusty southerly winds warmed us significantly and thus, no snow for most except near the PA/MD border.

Thoughts on the week. Not a bad day, as warmer temps, all the way to 60 or above in the south, will make their presence known. Scattered showers and even thunderstorms, especially south, not out of the question. As we head towards the end of the week it appears that the set up for winter may take place. I Have been sayinmg this all winter. The First step will be tomorrow as the NAO is expected to tank strongly Negative, so I will update then. Right now, there is a threat that we could see a significant winter event around Friday. That being said, this winter had not trended more winter like as events have approached! Will keep watching

 

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Forecast:

 

Today: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with chances of showers and even a Thunderstorm!

 

Tuesday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Enjoy this day!

 

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

A little cooler.

 

Thursday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Increasing clouds, especially south

 

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50 Highly dependent on Southern Storm! Easily could know these down!

Cool to cold. Possible Rain/ Snow/ Ice storm!

 

Saturday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Still cool to cold.

 

Sunday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 25-35

Cold. Precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) possible.

 

Long Term:

This will likely be the last cold spell before spring. Pattern favors below normal temps through next week.

 

All for Now!

 

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2/21 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

Yes, I should have seen the writing on the walls yesterday and called off the snow! This week presents seasonal temps starting Wednesday and yet something else to watch Friday into the weekend.

Summary:

Strom Recap: Heard reports of sleet mainly, and I saw this too at about midnight last night.. That was it! No Accumulations! Precip was slower to arrive yesterday than I thought which helped to offset any evaporational cooling or to stop warmer reading from sunshine (which I saw a little of in the morning)! Gusty southerly winds warmed us significantly and thus, no snow for most except near the PA/MD border.

Thoughts on the week. Not a bad day, as warmer temps, all the way to 60 or above in the south, will make their presence known. Scattered showers and even thunderstorms, especially south, not out of the question. As we head towards the end of the week it appears that the set up for winter may take place. I Have been sayinmg this all winter. The First step will be tomorrow as the NAO is expected to tank strongly Negative, so I will update then. Right now, there is a threat that we could see a significant winter event around Friday. That being said, this winter had not trended more winter like as events have approached! Will keep watching

Please join the Forum. Helpful discussions and observations!! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with chances of showers and even a Thunderstorm!

Tuesday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Enjoy this day!

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

A little cooler.

Thursday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Increasing clouds, especially south

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50 Highly dependent on Southern Storm! Easily could know these down!

Cool to cold. Possible Rain/ Snow/ Ice storm!

Saturday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Still cool to cold.

Sunday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 25-35

Cold. Precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) possible.

Long Term:

This will likely be the last cold spell before spring. Pattern favors below normal temps through next week.

All for Now!

2/19 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert

Snow Event Diminished What: Light Snow Possible Where: Northern VA and Central MD Immediate Piedmont to areas just east of I-95 When: Sunday afternoon through Monday Morning How Much: At most, I could sonly see a 1-3” snow based on models. Areas really DC to Dulles To Baltimore and north have the greatest threat of accumulations with higher amounts north. Isolated 4” near the PA/MD border would not surprise me. See http://www.midatlanticweather.com/2_22_2005_f.gif Concerns: It appears warmth will really work fast to erode cold air. I will continue to monitor. Seems really cold, but strong southerly winds are at play here so a quick turnover would not surprise me!

2/19 Winter Weather Alert

Snow/Wintry Event More Likely What: Light to Moderate Snow Where: Northern VA and Central MD Immediate Piedmont to areas just east of I-95 When: Sunday afternoon through Monday Morning How Much: Refer to http://www.midatlanticweather.com/2_20_2005_.gif looks like 2-4” immediate Piedmont North of Charlottesville up through Maryland. 1-3” I-95 areas Fredericksburg and north. Concerns: I hope I am not overdoing precip. Still could have to shift this north if warmer air is more powerful.

2/17 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Cooler conditions today, but not too far from seasonal. Slow moderating temperatures. Still a RISK of some snow Sunday night into Monday north. Remembering Presidents Day Snow Storm 2003! Next week still bears watching but locking cold has been hard to keep around.

Summary:

Colder northwesterly winds will keep temperatures 20 degrees cooler than yesterday for most parts. Upslope western Mountain Snow showers are occurring this morning and will continue into tonight. Even colder Friday, but the weekend begins a moderation in temperatures. The moderating temperature is a sign that the ability for cold air to lock in to the region is not there! Thus, as precipitation begins to overrun the colder air, it will eventually overpower whatever cold air is left in the region. Sunday night into Monday enough leftovers (or stale) cold air will be around to see some snow and sleet at the onset of precipitation, but changeover will likely occur, much like last week. This mix is only likely in the Northern piedmont areas. There is a chance that a few inches could fall before the changeover, so we do need to watch it! Cold rain Monday for most areas, especially during the afternoon. Tuesday still has cool temperatures, but nothing too out of the ordinary next week. Another system approaches the region towards the end of the week, and, though we are not really cold, there is the chance of some winter weather with it as well.

Of note, the cold in Canada is not as brutal as it has been in the past and it appears that the polar Vortex will retreat Canada. That being said, there is new life in one of the models of a Polar Vortex developing next week. If this comes to fruition, colder readings and a renewed threat for winter weather could come into play. Right now, models in the longer term do not give me much reason to accept them. Just a few days ago I was very excited about a big storm possibility, but now, things have really changed!

Speaking of Big Storms, this date was the last day of the BIG Presidents Day Snowstorm in 2003. I measure 27 inches of snow which was the largest snow I have ever seen in my life! That storm was amazing and, if we had not turned over to sleet all of Sunday Night, I would have probably never expected to see a bigger snow in my lifetime. But, that may still be possible!

Some Pictures: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p1.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p2.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p3.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p4.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p5.jpg http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/snow0203p6.jpg For perspective the last photo. That building is 4.5" tall at the crest. The fence is 6' . Here is that shed at Lowes: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/pd2/shed.jpg

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Expecting some breezy conditions with much cooler temperatures.

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cold

Saturday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool. Increasing cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cold. Precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) possible. Rain more likely in the south, mix or even snow north. Likely not arriving until Night Time hours

Monday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Rain south and precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) changing to rain and drizzle by afternoon. In the North there is a possible switch back to snow if a coastal can wrap colder air back in. Nothing too substantial though.

Tuesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool with Partly Cloudy Skies

Wednesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 45-55 N: 45-55

Cool with Partly Cloudy Skies

Thursday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool with Partly Cloudy Skies

Long Term:

There is another system to watch next week, though its outcome is likely rain. I will continue to monitor conditions, but the current trend favors less cold over time.

All for Now!

2/16 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Changes to colder today, but long term we may be cool, but snow threats are seriously diminished!

Summary:

Thunderstorms possible this afternoon as we have a transition day to a cooler pattern. Cooler is not colder and the early signs of possible winter weather have really faded for me the last 36 hours. Looks like the features that would lock a cold and snowy pattern in over us were just model output! A cold rain, with some snow in the north, is possible Sunday Night into Monday, but the huge winter storm threat, for now, has gone! As a matter of fact, the scenario for the rest of the month has really shifted so chances of a snowstorm of significant size are pretty much out of the picture, so now it is time to look for signs of spring. One noted sign is the development of a heat ridge off the US east coast. Another is the possible rumble of thunder this afternoon as the front comes through.

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 50-60

Front will cross the region with even the chances of a thunderstorm. Temps should fall and could even see wet snow in the system in the higher elevations tonight.

Thursday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Expecting some breezy conditions with much cooler temperatures.

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cold

Saturday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool. Increasing cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cold. Precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) possible. Rain more likely in the south, mix or even snow north. Likely not arriving until Night Time hours

Monday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cold. Rain and precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) changing to rain and drizzle by afternoon.

Tuesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool with Partly Cloudy Skies

Long Term:

There is another system to watch next week, though its outcome is likely rain. I will continue to monitor conditions, but the current trend favors less cold over time.

All for Now!

2/14 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

The mix occurred this morning! Not always able to update like I would during the weekends. Funny how family can keep you busy. A lot to ponder the next 7 to 10 days as winter comes back with 2 significant threats for winter weather and even some real cold.

Summary:

Raw day on tap. Northern Virginia and Maryland saw a period of wet snow and sleet this morning. The system today will drop as much as an inch of rain before lifting north. Tomorrow will be lovely with highs 60s and even a 70 or higher degree in the south. The front associated with the system today will cross the region and knock us to below normal temperatures as we head into the weekend.. AND THEN.. There are some interesting developments that look like they **MAY** occur! First, we have a split flow pattern. This gives the US both Polar as well as Sub Tropical influences which means cold and moisture! Will they combine? 2 chances show up in the long term. One a week from today and then a few days later! Either one of these could really be juicy system and there are a lot of details to work out but we could see the best chances of serious snowfall of the season. Nothing to do but watch and see what takes shape!

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 40-50 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Morning rain, or rain/sleet mix in the north, with seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Enjoy this day! It will be last warm one for a little while!

Wednesday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 50-60

Front will cross the region with even the chances of a thunderstorm. Temps should fall and could even see wet snow in the system in region by the end of the event.

Thursday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Expecting some breezy conditions with much cooler temperatures.

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool

Saturday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Cool. Increasing cloudiness. Colder temperatures arrive overnight.

Sunday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 25-35

Cold. Precipitation (Snow/Rain/Sleet something) possible. This may be the beginning of a huge winter storm!

Long Term:

As noted, another snowstorm is possible a few days after the first! Keep posted!

All for Now!