02/11 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

Cold and Windy conditions will give way to a normal temperature day. Weekend is looking pleasant, But I MUST WARN You that Sunday may end up a lot colder and damper than the way it looks now if a back door cold front comes through. Monday poses a threat of rain, though some mix could be present at its start. Next week is a mystery weather wise, as we continue to deal with model inconsistencies and tough forecasting

Summary:

Every time it seems that there is a good shot at cold and snow on model depictions for 7-10 days out, the forecast changes and differing scenarios come out. Confusion at best with next week as models show potential for a cold return, but some are not as robust as they were and others are too inconsistent to trust. All in all, it gives someone trying to forecast a headache! A great weekend is on tap with temperatures running slightly above normal….HOWEVER, there is a chance that Sunday a backdoor cold front puts a damper colder look to Sunday, especially in the north. We are getting closer to the spring, so back door cold fronts (fronts that usher in cold moist air from the ocean) are more prominent. The system Monday could have enough cold air at the start to provide a mix with sleet, and maybe some immediate piedmont icing issues if the High over New England is colder than what is currently showing. I do not expect much of an issue at this time, but will watch. It would be a Northern Virginia and Maryland issue if it were a problem at all.

Again, it appears there is a chance of a cold return next week, but nothing definite as models are sometime more excited about the idea than others. If the cold comes, it also appears a shot of Wintry precip could occur between Wenesday and Friday of next week.

Next week appears to set the stage for winters return as a split flow pattern sets up and cold air comes down from Canada. This cold may rival any cold we have had this year. One difference will be an active Southern Branch of the Jet stream that could link forces both at the start of the cold and later in the week.

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Cold windy morning, seasonal afternoon.

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Nice!

Sunday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55 (UNLESS back door cold front comes through)

Nice again, with some increase in clouds. If the back door front arrives in the north, temps will come down.

Monday: SW: 40-50 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Morning rain, or rain/sleet mix in the north, with seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Nicer.

Wednesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Tough call as a chance of light snow could come for parts of the region if colder temps return. Confidence beyond Wednesday is low!

Long Term:

A turn to colder conditions could occur around Wednesday, and, as noted, a possibility of snow could also occur. Will keep you posted.

All for Now!