Snow is looking likely Southwestern Virginia near the North Carolina and Virginia Border, especially the higher elevations. Snow Possible further north and needs to be watched, but strong Negative North Atlantic Oscillation is suppressing storms to the south leaving us colder than normal. Pattern Change will not happen until after the 21st now. Many systems to the south to watch and if one turns north some wintry weather possible, especially in the Mountains.
Where are we headed? First, and apology as life has been extremely busy and sickness in my family just has left me tired and too busy to post. Next, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is the strongest negative that we have seen it in a long time. What does this mean? The high to our north should be sufficient to shunt storms to the south of most of the area. The exception will be the Southern third of Virginia, especially Southwestern Virginia. Pattern could break down by the 21st.
Summary: 2 waves of low pressure will be affecting the Southern Regions the next few days. Both will have snow with them in the higher elevations and a mixture to just rain in the lower elevations. In the back of everyone who has been watching winter weather this season, the trend to the north is feared, or even expected by some. I am not so sure due to an extremely strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This is the strongest negative I have seen it in many years. The Result is the High to our north is strengthened, which is good for Cold Air Damming up against the mountains, and great if you want snow and cold air to stay in place, but, the strength is so strong, it also pushes storms around its periphery which for us will mean storms will not make it too far north, and a sharp cut off of precipitation to the north of the track. A system may finally come further north this weekend, and the cold start to relax
Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 12 members. Great observations and feedback. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/
Forecast:
Today: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55
Partly cloudy. Some increase in clouds in the South
Wednesday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 40-50
Snow and Snow and Rain Mixed far Southwest and spreading across the Southern third of Virginia (Maybe as far north as Richmond). The lower the elevations, the less the mix chances and then eastern areas will see mainly rain, but flakes mixed at night are not out of the question.
Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 40-50
Situation will reload and repeat itself. SW Virginia could total 6-8" of snow in the higher terrain from both systems.
Friday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40
Snow chances continue for the higher elevations of the Southwest and rain chances with some snow mixed in the southern third of Virginia. Temperatures stay cold
Long Term:
Situation will likely repeat itself again Saturday, but temperatures may be warmer, so just the highest elevations could see snow, while others see rain. This system could affect a larger portion of the state and provide snow to the mountains in eth Central and even Northern region. Yet another system Monday could present some snow for the highest elevations of the state whereas most areas will see rain.
LAST NOTE: The models, the time of year, the strong negative NAO all present challenges that are very hard for models or humans to understand. There is the **POSSIBILITY** that storms could come further north, that colder air could be involved, and that a larger portion of the state will see snow or even a snowstorm(or 2) that would be significant (some meteorologists are convinced this will be the case)! This pattern is convoluted and makes me scared to be specific as we could see a dramatic change! That said, just stay tuned and alert to the possibilities!
All for now!
