Advisories are posted - Nuisance snow/sleet/ice and then rain.

We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.

All for now.. map possible late.

I will update late morning or early afternoon

Light snow event for Maryland and Northern Virginia looks possible - some rain and sleet - pockets of freezing rain - Tough forecast! More to come!

Wintry threat is real - but looks light at best - Cold following - storm threats return next week

First off.. BRRRRR It is cold and windy. Tonight we will see some serious cold in the mountains with Wind Chill Advisories possible. Wind Advisories are up for many until this evening, and are well needed.

Concerning the upcoming winter weather threat:

I am sure of a few things:
1. The Southeastern Third of VA will mainly see rain from the upcoming event
2. Rain will be mixed in with snow and sleet and maybe pockets of freezing rain for most the middle third with transitions to rain and then maybe back to snow at the end.
3. It is the Northwestern third of VA and Western 2/3rds of Maryland that leave me scratching my head! I am now thinking we *COULD* see some accumulating snows.. maybe a couple of inches. The further north you are, the more the possibilities. At a maximum I could see some places at 1 to 3 inches of snow and that would especially be true of upper Maryland. It is highly dependent on how explosive the storm is off the North Carolina coast. If it explodes sooner than thought, we could see a more widespread event.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 2 to 4 inches. North of this should see a lot more.

After this storm bombs in the Northeast it could be a factor in setting up a better winter storm pattern early next week.

After the event it also looks to be COLD. Also, January as a whole looks like it is going to be very cold from what I can see at this point.

Things could change and if they do I will update.

All for now.

Snow threat light at this point

There will be a storm later this week, but it now looks light at best.
This would be Thursday. It also is likely that many will see some snow
transition to a cold rain. It is possible that this could change back
over to a bit of Snow thursday night. There remains some uncertainty
about all of this so stay tuned.

Today through Wednesday will be breezy and very cold! Temps will be in
the 30 to 40 degree range for highs and winds could cause wind chill
advisories. Temps will continue cold Thursday, but just warm enough so
that rain will become a part of that forecast.

After Friday even colder air may pay a visit.

--
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What about the snow?

Snow chances are there late in the week, but it is a mess figuring out
what Low will produce the snow! I also expect that big cities will mix
or be a lot of rain. Colder air is looming. More late tonight!

--
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Rain winding down - Some snow showers Sunday Night - cold week - Winter Storm possible

Merry Christmas! I decided not to post the last few days, and I am sorry to all that read regularly! We had a forecast close to what I originally had forecasted, but some areas did not see any frozen precip like I thought. Rains ended up somewhat lighter for some, but here in Loudoun I am seeing a flood warning this morning. A lot of the snow has melted and the piles are all that is leftover. Today will see rains end in the north and cloudy skies slowly clear. Tonight's lows will be the 20s and 30s for most. Highs tomorrow will be relatively mild with the 40s and 50s! Tomorrow night the upper support that caused the Christmas Blizzard in the middle of the country will move through and a few snow showers could occur in the Northern part of Virginia and Maryland. This week will be pretty cold. The next event will be interesting and will bring a snow chance especially west if I-95 for Northern Virginia and definitely snow in the Mountains. This one is not clear cut! There are several things. First the cold air will be more marginal which will be an issue along I-95 at first, but colder air will work in and send the temps cold enough for snow to start advancing eastward. The track of the low will make it a bit tough as well. Because the upper levels will not be as cold, the ratios for the snow to liquid will not be as high as last storm. Then, what system will end up being the one that consolidates and moves up the coast. It could be New Year's eve, but it could be a few days later! I think this will come into focus over the next few days.

Details will be worked out the next few days.

All for now!

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A little more complicated Thursday into Friday - Flooding rains possible - Cold continues - Warm or Cold after New Years

Weather is hard to pin down for Friday. As of now I am certain some freezing rain and sleet will occur in the valleys and most places that have snow pack may see some sleet at the onset of the pecip. The warm air should overwhelm the colder air and turn the sleet and freezing rain to rain for most places except the Blue Ridge valleys. This will need some monitoring as there may be some slippery roads. Interestingly enough, as cold air filters in at the end of the storm, a turn to snow may occur across the northern areas Saturday! The only accumulations would be the mountains.

I have been repeating the same thing over and over and I cannot stress it enough... clear out paths away from your house so that the melting snow and now rain can drain away from your house. If you have not done this, resolve to do it today. People in town home communities should make sure that the drains are free so that the rain can drain and will not cause pools of water that could flood!

What does the future hold? I am now not so sure of the Arctic outbreak I was before. There are some other signs of a relaxing of the pattern and maybe some warming the first week or two of January! So what will it be? I am not as clear as I was and will have more thoughts in the next several days.

To see a cool Picture of the recent Blizzard from space check out http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/12/east-coast-blizzard-from-space?npu=1&mbid=yhp

So to sum up - Valleys and northern regions should see a glaze of some ice Friday - likely a winter weather advisory criteria, but I would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches posted first Thursday Morning for Friday in Areas along the Immediate Piedmont and mountains of areas from Roanoke to the Pennsylvania/Maryland Border! I am a little more worried about flooding at this point than freezing rain and sleet, but that could change some.

All for now!

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Update on Thursday and Friday - Week overall looks cold and sunny - Serious cold could be on the horizon!

Temps will be mid 30s to mid 40s for most of the week until Friday. It looks like the cold air damming will be strong enough for a period of sleet and freezing rain Thursday Night into Friday morning. Rains on Friday may be pretty heavy. As I stated after the storm you really do need to make sure that water can drain away from the house. With Friday being Christmas the last thing you want to be doing is going outside and clearing snow from the drains!

As for the future, a very, very, very cold arctic outbreak could be on the doorstep around the new year. This could be preceded by another significant winter storm!

All for now!

Just posting Accuweather's storm total map.

BLIZZARD OF 2009

i got 20.5 inches here in dundalk md, BWI got 21.1 inches what a whopper of a storm. now we have a different type of storm for xmas eve and day. im thinking snow to start, then a mix to rain. but 6 days away and anything can happen

Storm winding down! What a whopper! What is up next?

I am somewhere around 22 to 25 inches here in Sterling. Light snow will end in the next few hours. Travel is terrible! The snow is so deep and uniform that it is had to distinguish the road from the median. My friend does plowing and he reports flipped cars all over the place. PLEASE BE SAFE.

Cold weather will stick through the week. Slight warming by Thursday and Friday.

People have been wondering about the potential storm late this coming week. As of now I see it being a mix of snow, sleet and rain at first and then rain. I now think Christmas may be a foggy for us as the snow keeps the ground cold but warm air comes up over top and rains on our snow! A white Christmas, but rain on top. This COULD change and I will let you know.

As for the longer range, there are indications the pattern should be favorable for another winter storm before the New Year. Though it may be significant, with the storm we just had many had their entire season average of snow and then some! And by the way, it is still fall! Meteorological winter did begin on December 1st!

Back to the current situation:
1. Be careful shoveling
2. Check on neighbors and elderly.
3. Tomorrow take a shovel and make paths away from your house to let the melting snow run off away from the house.
4. I recommend pulling snow away from doors and windows, and again, get paths for the rain to go away from these

All for now!

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Blizzard warnings expanded westward to immediate DC metro and Baltimore areas

Maybe I was a little robust on the 20 to 30 inches.. many will see the 12 to 20 which is closer to what I posted on my site last night!

Snow is heavy in areas of Northern Virginia this morning! Snow has accumulated around 10 inches here in Sterling. Many reporting the same.

Awesome sight!

Snow will slacken a lot southern half of state. As the low off the coast continues to wrap up the winds will start to be an issue. Snows will continue north part of VA, MD, DC, and up to New England.

Not to look to far beyond the current situation, but another snow could occur for CHRISTMAS day as well.

If you are a weather nut like me, this is FUN!

Snow is doing better than thought! WIDESPREAD 20 to 30 Inches!

Well, here we go with a HUGE storm.Many areas will be measuring in feet! Of note, Blizzard warnings posted east of DC. I will not be surprised to see more Blizzard warnings by morning!

Holiday Blizzard of 2009!

All for now!

Final Call - THIS WILL BE HISTORIC

My map is not great! Many will see 10 to as much as 20 inches in the red. Pink will see many 8 to 12 inches. Then we have mixing in eastern sections will mix with rain and sleet. West will see a cut off due to dry air! The red areas could see thunder snow. As the storm gets cranking north of Virginia and the DelMarVA a blizzard could occur!

SNOW totals I predicted may be half the total!

Add 6 to 10 inches below! WOW!

--
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First Guess on this storm. (I am cutting totals some - models do show a lot more than this!) First Guess: Virginia Roanoke: 10 - 12" Charlottesville : 12 - 14" Fredericksburg: 12 - 14" some 18" Dulles - 6 - 10" Washington DC - 8 to 12" Richmond: 6 - 10" Maryland: Baltimore: 8 - 12" Montgomery County - 6-10" North Carolina: Asheville: 8 - 12" Boone: 10 - 12"

Major/Historic Winter Storm! TIME CORRECTION!

Major/Historic Winter Storm!

CORRECTION ON TIME! This will be Friday into Saturday!

With the Model trends and the increased consensus on a major winter storm, I have the Second alert of the season! This could be Historic with amounts approaching 20 inches in parts of Virginia and Maryland!

Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!

A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.

Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.

A lot to look at and watch!

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If anyone needs a person to do snow plowing in Northern Virginia (Sterling to Leesburg area) let me know!

Major/Historic Winter Storm!

With the Model trends and the increased consensus on a major winter storm, I have the Second alert of the season! This could be Historic with amounts approaching 20 inches in parts of Virginia and Maryland! This will be starting Saturday Night and go through Sunday.

Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!

A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.

Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.

A lot to look at and watch!

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If anyone needs a person to do snow plowing in Northern Virginia (Sterling to Leesburg area) let me know!

 

Winter storm seems likely

A Winter storm is likely to affect the mid atlantic Saturday and
Sunday. It is possible some totals could approach a foot or more for
some places. This is a preliminary outlook and I will have more
analysis later tonight and tomorrow!

--
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OFF TOPIC! My Company is Hiring!

Not trying to get off subject! We do have much to talk about as more and more we appear lining up for a storm this coming weekend! I do know the state of the economy and we do have many positions open at my company (Plateau Systems) here in Arlington, VA. If interested, let me know! There is a Contact Me in teh left column, leave a comment, do what you can.

http://www.plateau.com/about/careers.htm

Thanks!

I will post later about the wintry weather!

Jimmy

Breezy and cold - a southern Snow!

Today will be cold and breezy temps will likely make it to the upper
30s North and upper 40s south. Cold conditions continue tomorrow bit
breezes lessen. Then we have a southern low to consider late Saturday
into Sunday. As of now I am suspecting the southeastern third of VA
and much of NC as well as far western SC COULD see a major or even
Historic snow storm this Saturday Eastern VA could also be brushed by
some light snow. Northern VA and MD are unlikely to see the storm the
way it looks now. If the Southern Low happens to form a bit more north
or a phasing of systems occurs (possible) more of the region needs to
be ready for significant snow. A lot to watch at this point. After
the system we stay cold and a white Christmas may occur for some!

--
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Mild one more day - Much colder rest of week - weekend snow?

This will be the last mild day of the week and maybe for a while. Highs will be in the 50 to 60 degree range. A few showers over the mountains will turn to some snow showers out that way. Then we have Arctic air the rest of the week with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s at best. There are some forecast models bringing a southern storm into the region this weekend and providing a significant winter storm. My gut would be to believe them after what has been a non-stop parade of southern storms during the weekends for the last several weeks, but I need a little more convincing before I am sold. Even colder air looks to arrive Monday and indications that maybe we could have more winter weather some time next week! That may mean some will see a white Christmas.

All I have for now!

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Fog and freezing fog. Mild today and tomorrow-more chill after that

Be careful this morning. Fog is freezing and that is causing black
ice. Today will be mild with temps upper 40s to upper 50s. Tomorrow
will be even milder with highs 50 to 60. A strong cold front will come
through with breezy and colder temps returning by Wednesday. As
mentioned last night, an Alberta clipper *MAY* visit and cause some
light snow Friday night. Otherwise a much drier pattern has taken
shape, on forecast models at least, at this time. All for now!

--
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FOG HORNS NEEDED! Cool to cold.. SNOW Where are you?

So, we had some ice this morning in areas. Heavy rains fell again and it has been so wet this fall! With the cold rainy ground and the temps dropping to the dew point fog is a plenty! I was just driving in it and it was tough to see! The rains are gone for a day! A strong cold front will come through Tuesday and drop temps back to 5 to 10 degrees below normal. There is a possible Alberta Clipper Friday into Saturday and cause a small amount of snow in the region. That is not for certain. The colder conditions and the pattern in general does show the possibilities of a bigger storm at some point. That being said, it is not ideal and so forecast models continue to switch on their forecasts from run to run.

I have nothing new to share for now!

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Just a reminder on where you can Find Mid Atlantic Weather!

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Brrr. Surprising warming so we get Mix to Rain Sunday - Rain and then cold again next week

The evolution of this pattern has been difficult to get correct. We have an arctic high over us now that is actually modified from its coldest time. It is headed straight though town though and a "warming" in the atmosphere will make moisture falling Sunday change from a mix of snow, then sleet, and rain (light) to s steadier rain all day Sunday. Temps in the 40s Monday and Tuesday when more rain arrives ahead of another arctic shot that will be similar to this one. So temps back down into the 30s.

Though potential showed for maybe a snow next week, this has really backed off. That being said, we have not had too many days between rain/snow events since fall so things may change.

Have to run! Stay warm!

Colder air coming - Will it last? Snow/Mix possible this weekend - Long term!

The cold air is about to come through and it will feel wintry tomorrow and Friday. What will transpire this weekend is a bit up in the air. I am not convinced we will see much of anything, but one model is still showing snow and a mix for the region. I will continue to watch.

Next week I am in a quandary. There are signs that maybe a big storm *COULD* happen and cause winter weather for the region. The latest models have backed off on this idea.

For now, cold and windy tomorrow and continued cold through Saturday.

Some wintry weather - More for Mountains - Heavy rains - weekend more snow

There are winter storm watches up for parts of the area. If you look at HPC's outline for where a quarter inch or more of ice may form you get an idea of where I too think things will be bad. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif . There are a few things that make me a bit "worried" about more icing. The main threat would be a coastal low which MAY keep colder air around longer in this event. I will say though, when we get such heavy rains (I see 1 to 2 inches and even more in spots) then the colder surface is overwhelmed by the warmer rains. This is not always true, but does tend to be the case. Rain will end tomorrow and that will be the last Mild day for a while. The Arctic express is coming and temps will fall to very cold conditions Thursday straight through Monday and beyond. highs will be the 30s to low 40s most places during this time. Winds will be fairly strong Thursday as well which will make it blustery. A southern storm system could make its presence known this weekend and cause snow and a mix of precipitation for many due to the colder air. I do NOT expect this to be a big event. Due to some warming during the storm, snow will mix and change to rain areas south and east of the Fall Line.. Areas west of the I-95 corridor will see snow and then rain and snow mix.. better chances of just snow to the north, but also lighter amounts of precip.

So for today. Areas of the Shenandoah will see snow and sleet change to freezing rain and could accumulate to Winter Storm Warning criteria north of Harrisonburg area up to the PA/MD border. The immediate Piedmont will likely see Winter Weather Advisories posted, but I am not suspecting a lot and especially less east of Rt 15. I also expect many to see sleet and rain mixed at onset and then a turnover to just rain. Rain will be heavy at times tonight.

All for now!

Cold conditions coming! Some mix and then more snow?

Cloudy skies will be common until Wednesday. Temps will continue
colder than normal with highs 40 north and around 50 south. Tomorrow
will be cooler and rain will over spread the region throughout the
day. In the immediate piedmont and mountains sleet and freezing rain
will be a threat and advisories will likely be needed. Some sleet and
freezing rain will occur up to I-95 tomorrow evening for the north
half of VA and Western MD, but heavy precipitation should not allow
for much of an issue as the upper atmosphere's warmer air warms the
rain and the surface. Temps Wednesday will be mild with 50 to 60
degrees across the region. Much colder air to follow with high 40 to
50 Thursday and 30 to 40 Friday and Saturday. A southern Storm could
bring snow for many Friday Night into Saturday!

All for now!

--
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LAST CALL December 5th

Snow amounts have increased

Just west of 95

Immediate piedmont now looks like 4 to 6 inches. 2 to 4 east of this.
1 to 3 inches. Warnings have been hoisted in areas!

December 5th's snow fame continues!

--
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Potential for a real winter storm now for tomorrow!

Latest models have come in with a more serious threat of snow! Especially west of I-95! I suspect Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will be posted soon!


All for now!

snowfall forecast

this is my snowfall forecast for the upcoming snow event on saturday.

im thinking 2-4 inches along the I95 corridor from virginia up to philly,aybe even NYC if low hugs coast. some spots locally 5 inches, less along the coast due to mixing, and less farthur west . ill up date after the runs today. but this is how i see it now.

*** LUKE***

First Guess for Saturday!

Snow map late tonight

I will do what I can to get it out by 11

--
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Models trend snowier - If models are correct

If models continue we will see a more significant snow threat with some areas seeing 2 to as much as 6 inches, especially on the grass, Saturday afternoon and into the night. This will need further watching and I will update as often as I can. I suspect many will start as rain and rain/snow mix, and then snow. Best chance of accumulations still west of I-95 and the Higher elevations of Southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina!

All for now!

Jimmy

FIRST significant snows of the season if models are right!

Thinking many areas in Virginia could see 2 to maybe 4 inches of snow.
Some to see as much as 6 inches in higher elevations of Southwest VA.
More to come!

--
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Tornado watches in SE VA - Flood watched North VA and MD

I have been busy and needed to post sooner! Severe weather has broken out in areas. As the storm gets energized cells are rotating and have produced tornadoes today. See http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?forecast=spcstormreportmap&date=today&usemap=eastcentral_640x480 for some reports.

Also heavy rains and winds are moving through. Flash flood watches were posted for Northern Virginia and Maryland.

Please listen to news and radio outlets for updates, watches, or warnings!

All for now!

Snow threat SW VA down into Western NC - Light snow possible elsewhere

first we have a potent systems coming through the region the next 24 hours. rain and Thunder which is causing severe weather to break out in the south. Rain totals in the 1 to 2 inch range seem likely and in a relatively short amount of time. Winds will also be high in the higher elevations and could be pulled down by heavier showers or storms - so do not be surprised to see some isolated severe storms scattered through NC and VA overnight.

We have a definite shot of colder air that will arrive Friday into Saturday and a wave of energy that will produce a Low pressure to the south. Areas south of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville look the best for getting precipitation and it could mix with or change to snow, especially west of I-95 and then back South west into the higher Piedmont areas of NC, SC and even GA. Yes a more southern system appears to be in the making. Areas along and east of I-5 in these regions could see a mix or even some periods of snow, but it is warm at the surface so this will be what I call "white rain" for many. Areas west of I-95 and further south could see some accumulations and i would not be surprised to see a 1 to 3" with isolated 4" spots from Southwestern VA down into Western NC and SC.

Further north, rain and snow showers will likely visit Saturday but it does not look too potent.. the further north, the less the chance to see anything.

STILL early on this so stay tuned!

All for now!

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UPCOMING STORM POSSIBILITYS

well first off we have a possible " storm" on the dec 5th-6th time frame. the euro , cmc, want to take it out to sea, the GFS brings at a little more west, the nam out to 84 hrs keepos it closer to coast, so with the way the models are all over the play, have to wait a day or two. then there is another possibility on dec 9th-12 time frame. thats 7+ days out so we will look at that in a few days as it gets closer. over 7 days out the models will be all over the place till we get closer. thanks more to come :)

*** LUKE***

Snow shot? Looks possible!

Seeing possibilities still coming together! Could see a few inches in some parts. I am not expecting a big system at this time. There are a few things that are peaking my interest. Some SE bias on the current model may mean more moisture.

What do I expect. Some snow! YES.. Some snow areas west of  I-95 from about Richmond up to the DC and Baltimore area. Some rain to tart and a mix and turnover for many areas even along I-95. Areas that are mainly snow could see some accumulation on grassy areas.

A lot of details to be worked out. If things get more moist I am going to need to get a little more excited! I am just happy to see a snow chance on the December 5th date! It has snowed on that date a lot in the last 7 years!
 
All for now!

Snow risk update

There are definite trends towards showers this Saturday. If you
noticed, most forecasts have a risk now that did not even late last
evening. How much? Well I suspect we will see just a light mix of rain
and snow west of I-95 especially saturday evening. Could it be bigger?
Some models say yes. Could it be nothing? Yes. Many models say that
too! More to come including a late evening real post for a change!

--
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