Some wintry weather - More for Mountains - Heavy rains - weekend more snow

There are winter storm watches up for parts of the area. If you look at HPC's outline for where a quarter inch or more of ice may form you get an idea of where I too think things will be bad. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif . There are a few things that make me a bit "worried" about more icing. The main threat would be a coastal low which MAY keep colder air around longer in this event. I will say though, when we get such heavy rains (I see 1 to 2 inches and even more in spots) then the colder surface is overwhelmed by the warmer rains. This is not always true, but does tend to be the case. Rain will end tomorrow and that will be the last Mild day for a while. The Arctic express is coming and temps will fall to very cold conditions Thursday straight through Monday and beyond. highs will be the 30s to low 40s most places during this time. Winds will be fairly strong Thursday as well which will make it blustery. A southern storm system could make its presence known this weekend and cause snow and a mix of precipitation for many due to the colder air. I do NOT expect this to be a big event. Due to some warming during the storm, snow will mix and change to rain areas south and east of the Fall Line.. Areas west of the I-95 corridor will see snow and then rain and snow mix.. better chances of just snow to the north, but also lighter amounts of precip.

So for today. Areas of the Shenandoah will see snow and sleet change to freezing rain and could accumulate to Winter Storm Warning criteria north of Harrisonburg area up to the PA/MD border. The immediate Piedmont will likely see Winter Weather Advisories posted, but I am not suspecting a lot and especially less east of Rt 15. I also expect many to see sleet and rain mixed at onset and then a turnover to just rain. Rain will be heavy at times tonight.

All for now!