1/11 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

I Sorry it has been so long since I posted. Life is crazy busy so weather becomes second or third or fourth on my list of priorities. First, the front today and colder air was not in my previous thoughts or forecast! The warmth is not as pronounced this week as I had thought, third, cold air is coming, but I am worried it is not going to last too long! Possibel wintry mix next week, but I will have to watch and see.

 

Summary:

OK, a front slipped through overnight and has cooled us down. It is on its way back and the overrunning warmer air could cause some rain showers overnight. Wednesday, once the cold air retreats (and as usual I am worried it will take longer than any model shows) warmer readings will set up and highs will climb. Then we have a front come through Friday and temps should drop, and be reinforced by another front that will drop them more for a cold weekend. Then what? It is sad to a snow lover to see, but the colder air will retreat a bit northward and so we head to seasonal, or even a few degrees above. That being said I do see a RISK of a storm that may bring some frozen precipitation our way early next week. If there is frozen precip, it will be a mix to rain type of scenario. Sow aht is the problem with cold air staying? Well, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has yet to show a trend towards negative for a while. It appears that the warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic keep the Higher heights in Greenland which has not allowed the block to form. This appears to continue even though the Pacific North American (PNA) ridge is finally coming to give Californians a break and warmer weather. The PNA pattern is really our only push for colder air so far this winter and it is not a completely favorable set up for east coast winter storms. The Polar Vortex (PV) is also another very important part of our winter and it is not in a location (Hudson Bay) that is needed for potential storms in the East. Basically, there is nothing favoring a stormy winter pattern now, just a colder pattern via the PNA pattern which likely means cold shots are transient for this part of the United States. That being said there is a **POSSIBILITY** that a linkage or phase of a low will cause some changes in the patterns that would cause winter to come and stay in the eastern US next week. There are some hints that this may occur, but it is a watching game right now and that is about it.

 

 Just a reminder that I have a new Weather Forum for the region. It is not heavily used and only a few members now. I would like to see it grow and get busy during storms especially! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

 

Forecast:

 

Today: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Cloudy. Scattered showers possible, especially overnight

 

Wednesday: SW: 70-80 SE: 70-80 N: 60-70 (**Concerned in the North that temps may not be this high)

Partly Cloudy. Temps in the north may have an issue if the Cold Air Damming scenario is not overcome at the beginning of the day.

 

Thursday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 60-70

Partly Cloudy.

 

Friday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50 (temps falling)

Clearing turning colder as the day progresses. (Temps may need adjusting!)

 

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

 

Saturday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Partly Cloudy.

 

Long Term:

Possible winter weather early the following week. Ability for cold air to stay will need to be monitored, but a moderation to normal temps seems probable at this point.

                                            

All for now!

 

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Sorry it has been so long since I posted. Life is crazy busy so weather becomes second or third or fourth on my list of priorities. First, the front today and colder air was not in my previous thoughts or forecast! The warmth is not as pronounced this week as I had thought, third, cold air is coming, but I am worried it is not going to last too long! Possibel wintry mix next week, but I will have to watch and see.

Summary:

OK, a front slipped through overnight and has cooled us down. It is on its way back and the overrunning warmer air could cause some rain showers overnight. Wednesday, once the cold air retreats (and as usual I am worried it will take longer than any model shows) warmer readings will set up and highs will climb. Then we have a front come through Friday and temps should drop, and be reinforced by another front that will drop them more for a cold weekend. Then what? It is sad to a snow lover to see, but the colder air will retreat a bit northward and so we head to seasonal, or even a few degrees above. That being said I do see a RISK of a storm that may bring some frozen precipitation our way early next week. If there is frozen precip, it will be a mix to rain type of scenario. Sow aht is the problem with cold air staying? Well, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has yet to show a trend towards negative for a while. It appears that the warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic keep the Higher heights in Greenland which has not allowed the block to form. This appears to continue even though the Pacific North American (PNA) ridge is finally coming to give Californians a break and warmer weather. The PNA pattern is really our only push for colder air so far this winter and it is not a completely favorable set up for east coast winter storms. The Polar Vortex (PV) is also another very important part of our winter and it is not in a location (Hudson Bay) that is needed for potential storms in the East. Basically, there is nothing favoring a stormy winter pattern now, just a colder pattern via the PNA pattern which likely means cold shots are transient for this part of the United States. That being said there is a **POSSIBILITY** that a linkage or phase of a low will cause some changes in the patterns that would cause winter to come and stay in the eastern US next week. There are some hints that this may occur, but it is a watching game right now and that is about it.

Just a reminder that I have a new Weather Forum for the region. It is not heavily used and only a few members now. I would like to see it grow and get busy during storms especially! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Cloudy. Scattered showers possible, especially overnight

Wednesday: SW: 70-80 SE: 70-80 N: 60-70 (**Concerned in the North that temps may not be this high)

Partly Cloudy. Temps in the north may have an issue if the Cold Air Damming scenario is not overcome at the beginning of the day.

Thursday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 60-70

Partly Cloudy.

Friday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50 (temps falling)

Clearing turning colder as the day progresses. (Temps may need adjusting!)

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Partly Cloudy.

Saturday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Partly Cloudy.

Long Term:

Possible winter weather early the following week. Ability for cold air to stay will need to be monitored, but a moderation to normal temps seems probable at this point.

All for now!

1/7 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

I canÂ’t help but remember the Blizzard of 96 during this time. That was really a lot of fun for a snow lover! See link below! As far as our weather.. A quick hitting system will drop some rain overnight into tomorrow morning (actually will start before long in many places as it is racing northeast) The weekend will be about 10 degrees above normal before record warmth visits next week! Thursday to Friday a front comes through and will knock our temps back to seasonal and eventually below normal values. There could easily be a snow or ice event sometime next weekend into early the following week and just before I sent this a lot of hype from trusted meteorologists about new model runs making it much colder and perhaps snowier beyond day 7!

 

Summary:

First, the Blizzard! http://www.accuweather.com/adc_images2/english/feature/400x300/wxwhy.jpg

The quick hitting storm could be our only rain producer until next Thursday or Friday! Temps will be mild and get downright warm next week! I am betting 80 for parts of the region by Next Wednesday. But do not get too used to it, as a turn for cold will be felt Friday into the next weekend! There are even models showing a quick hitting snowstorm by day 10, but I have seen these things fall apart pretty quickly as events unfold. As far as how long the cold air will stay, it will be really hard to tell. There have been signs it may be very transient, and yet, newest models make me a bit more excited that conditions could set up to lock it in for a bit. We shall see!

 

 Just a reminder that I have a new Weather Forum for the region. It is not heavily used and only a few members now. I would like to see it grow and get busy during storms especially! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

 

Forecast:

 

Saturday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 45-55

Chance of some showers early North. Slow clearing.

 

Sunday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 50-60

Partly Cloudy

 

Monday: SW: 65-75 SE: 65-75 N: 60-70

Partly Cloudy.

 

Tuesday: SW: 68-78 SE: 68-78 N: 65-75

Partly Cloudy.

 

Wednesday: SW: 70-80 SE: 70-80 N: 68-78

Partly Cloudy.

 

Thursday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 60-70

Windy Showers and maybe thunderstorms.

 

Friday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Clearing and cooler. (Temps may need adjusting!)

 

Long Term:

Possible winter weather early the following week. Ability for cold air to stay will need to be monitored, but new evidence supporting a cold and snowy week possible.

                                            

All for now!

 

 

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1/5 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Air cold enough for some sleet and freezing rain in higher elevations has prompted the NWS to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Far Northern and Far Western VA and MD (above 1000 feet). For the rest of us, cloudy and cool in the North, remaining somewhat mild in the south, just depends what side of the front you are on! Major Ice Storm and Snow storm across a large portion of the country, but we remain mild to warm into next week. Signs keep showing on models of changes to a colder pattern commencing around the 15^th and completing between the 18^th and 20^th for the nation. The cold air in Canada is very cold so an overwhelming turn to cold and maybe dry (which is not good for a snow lover like me!)

 

 

Summary:

Some heavier rains moved through northern areas this morning, and that may be the heaviest of the day. A front is hung up over the area and north of it you are much cooler than south. A cold air damming episode may set up overnight tonight and allow rain to turn to freezing rain above 1000 feet in the Northern Mountains and Far western Maryland, and I expect advisories and not Winter Storm Warnings. The front pushes north again and areas will mild up again that are cooler today. Showers will be a threat, especially in the North, through the next 24 hours. Finally a one day break sets up on Friday, but temperatures will be cooler, and then the front sets up again across the region this weekend. A warm up is in the works next week, as noted, a significant warm up will likely precede our turn to much cooler temps. Right now, I am looking still at the 15^th through the 20^th for that change to occur and it will likely be dramatic! Just a reminder that I have a new Weather Forum for the region. It is not heavily used and only a few members now. I would like to see it grow and get busy during storms especially! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

 

Forecast:

 

Today: SW: 65-75 SE: 65-75 N: 40-50

Very Warm in the South! In th North, a good chance of rain early, and shower chances through the day. If you are on the north side of a front temps will be chilly. As noted, some highest elevations of the far northern areas could see some mixed precipitation (not snow) overnight.

 

Thursday: SW: 65-75 SE: 65-75 N: 55-65

 Warmer in the north. Still some rain chances and a front will cross the region helping us be drier on Friday.

 

Friday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Looks dry. Cooler but nothing bad for winter!

 

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Chance of some showers.

 

Friday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Chance of some showers.

 

Monday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Partly Cloudy.

 

Long Term:

Just thinking we may see a repeat of record warmth next week. We will see. As mentioned, changes appear on models to affect us around the 15^th so a repeat of off and on again rainy conditions possible with mild and warm conditions. I am more convinced of the pattern change and believe just before it record warmth!

  

All for now!

 

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1/4 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

This is a hard week to get forecasts right as this oscillating front will make it a bit tricky to get temperatures. This will be especially true the next 24-36 hours! Right now though, I just have to say, it is wild to be able to go to work on January 4^th and not have a coat on! There are SIGNS of changes, and the predecessor to the changes could be record warmth!

 

Summary:

The next 24 to 36 hours will show a pretty high gradient of temperatures through the area and you will either be cool or still pretty mild. There is the slight possibility that higher elevations of Northern areas  could cool enough to see sleet and/or freezing rain..briefly.. in the next 24 to 36 hours. Rain seems pretty likely from tonight through Thursday with heavier amounts tomorrow. Friday looks dry until yet another set up of  the stalled front and waves of energy riding along it threaten to make the weekend somewhat wet. As I noted yesterday, there are signs of changes on the horizon. Before these changes arrive, record warmth will flood the eastern US and I am not kidding when I say an 80 degree day is  not out the question! And Severe weather (could be very strong winds or thunderstorms) are also possible before a very dramatic turn to coldÂ…But signs do not mean reality!

 

Forecast:

 

Tuesday: SW: 64-74 SE: 64-74 N: 55-65

Remaining cloudy and unseasonably mild.

 

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 40-50

A good chance of rain, and if you are on the north side of a front temps will be chilly. As noted, some highest elevations of the far northern areas could see some mixed precipitation (not snow)

 

Thursday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60

Somewhat cooler. Still rain chances.

 

Friday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Looks dry! Cooler but nothing bad for winter!

 

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Chance of some showers!

 

Friday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Chance of some showers!

 

Long Term:

Just thinking we may see a repeat of record warmth, but it is hard to get all the exact location of fronts and rain may as well accompany the weekend. We will see. This pattern is stuck at least until January 15^th so a repeat of off and on again rainy conditions possible. I am more convinced of a pattern change and the record warmth before it will be amazing!

  

All for now!

 

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01/03 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

The heat is Â… On! What a great break for heating bills which helps us all in the East! We will be dealing with a meandering front this week that will make it difficult to get temperature forecasts right. There will be a threat of rain daily, but this may or may not materialize depending on where the front is exactly each day. Next weekend looks potentially warm again!

 

Summary:

My friend and I were just discussing the dramatic reversals in temperatures this last week! It was 9 degrees in Salisbury Maryland last Tuesday, and what a rapid warm up! 73 degrees Saturday in Fredericksburg! A lot of analoging of years in the past that showed a similar pattern and people come up with 1950. That year features some late season colder weather, but was a pretty snowless winter for the DC and surrounding areas. Last week Don Sutherland did an analysis for the DC area on Snowfall and posted it to the Easter US Weather Board. It was interesting to say the least. Here is a link  http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13008 Anyways, the persistent Southeastern United States Ridge is going to hold strong for at least the next 7-10 days from what I can tell, and vey possibly beyond. The best chance for changes will come between the 15^th and the 20^th, but we will have to wait and see. As notes.. this week a front oscillates around the area. The likelihood is that rain could fall any day, but Wednesday into Thursday seems more likely to me.  Friday will be somewhat cooler, but the weekend could very easily warm up. Would not be surprised to see an amazing warm up next week if a pattern change is about to take place!

 

Forecast:

 

Today: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Very Mild to warm. Some chances for showers, especially north.

 

Tuesday: SW: 64-74 SE: 64-74 N: 55-65

Remaining cloudy and unseasonably mild, a few showers possible.

 

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Cloudy.. a better chance of some rain, especially overnight.

 

Thursday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60

Somewhat cooler. Still rain chances

 

Friday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Driest day of the week! Cooler but nothing bad for winter!

 

Long Term:

Just thinking we may see a repeat of record warmth, but it is hard to get all the exact location of fronts and rain may as well accompany the weekend. We will see. This pattern is stuck at least until January 15^th so a repeat of off and on again rainy conditions possible. If a pattern change does occur, I expect a very big warm up right before it.

  

All for now!

 

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An Backdoor cold front moves temps down several degrees from record highs yesterday! Warmer temperatures return tomorrow, but not as warm as yesterday and cloudy skies seem to be the mainstay this week! Very long term see a chance of pattern changes but we are talking weeks from now!

 

Summary:

A back door cold front came through the region overnight and has dropped many areas temperatures so that today temps will be as much as 20-25 degrees cooler. Temps will moderate across a lot of the area again tomorrow, but it is unlikely temps will be as warm as they were yesterday.  A front will cross the area Tuesday and cause a slight chance of rain. Another chance of Rain Thursday Morning followed by at least normal temperatures for a day or so, before another warm up next weekend.

Forecast:

 

Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55 Cooler temperatures (but not too far from normal). Some drizzle possible in the north especially   Monday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65 Cloudy, a few showers possible, but definitely milder temperatures   Tuesday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65 Chance of some showers.   Wednesday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65 Chance of some showers. Rain at night.   Thurssday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55 Chance of rain. Cooler.   Long Term: Warmer temps possible again next weekend. Colder air possible between the 15th an 20th.

 

 

All for now!

 

 

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