Immediate piedmont now looks like 4 to 6 inches. 2 to 4 east of this.
1 to 3 inches. Warnings have been hoisted in areas!
December 5th's snow fame continues!
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Friday, December 04, 2009
Snow amounts have increased
Just west of 95
Potential for a real winter storm now for tomorrow!
Latest models have come in with a more serious threat of snow! Especially west of I-95! I suspect Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will be posted soon!
All for now!
All for now!
snowfall forecast
this is my snowfall forecast for the upcoming snow event on saturday.
im thinking 2-4 inches along the I95 corridor from virginia up to philly,aybe even NYC if low hugs coast. some spots locally 5 inches, less along the coast due to mixing, and less farthur west . ill up date after the runs today. but this is how i see it now.
*** LUKE***
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Models trend snowier - If models are correct
If models continue we will see a more significant snow threat with some areas seeing 2 to as much as 6 inches, especially on the grass, Saturday afternoon and into the night. This will need further watching and I will update as often as I can. I suspect many will start as rain and rain/snow mix, and then snow. Best chance of accumulations still west of I-95 and the Higher elevations of Southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina!
All for now!
Jimmy
All for now!
Jimmy
FIRST significant snows of the season if models are right!
Thinking many areas in Virginia could see 2 to maybe 4 inches of snow.
Some to see as much as 6 inches in higher elevations of Southwest VA.
More to come!
Some to see as much as 6 inches in higher elevations of Southwest VA.
More to come!
--
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Tornado watches in SE VA - Flood watched North VA and MD
I have been busy and needed to post sooner! Severe weather has broken out in areas. As the storm gets energized cells are rotating and have produced tornadoes today. See http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?forecast=spcstormreportmap&date=today&usemap=eastcentral_640x480 for some reports.
Also heavy rains and winds are moving through. Flash flood watches were posted for Northern Virginia and Maryland.
Please listen to news and radio outlets for updates, watches, or warnings!
All for now!
Also heavy rains and winds are moving through. Flash flood watches were posted for Northern Virginia and Maryland.
Please listen to news and radio outlets for updates, watches, or warnings!
All for now!
Snow threat SW VA down into Western NC - Light snow possible elsewhere
first we have a potent systems coming through the region the next 24 hours. rain and Thunder which is causing severe weather to break out in the south. Rain totals in the 1 to 2 inch range seem likely and in a relatively short amount of time. Winds will also be high in the higher elevations and could be pulled down by heavier showers or storms - so do not be surprised to see some isolated severe storms scattered through NC and VA overnight.
We have a definite shot of colder air that will arrive Friday into Saturday and a wave of energy that will produce a Low pressure to the south. Areas south of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville look the best for getting precipitation and it could mix with or change to snow, especially west of I-95 and then back South west into the higher Piedmont areas of NC, SC and even GA. Yes a more southern system appears to be in the making. Areas along and east of I-5 in these regions could see a mix or even some periods of snow, but it is warm at the surface so this will be what I call "white rain" for many. Areas west of I-95 and further south could see some accumulations and i would not be surprised to see a 1 to 3" with isolated 4" spots from Southwestern VA down into Western NC and SC.
Further north, rain and snow showers will likely visit Saturday but it does not look too potent.. the further north, the less the chance to see anything.
STILL early on this so stay tuned!
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
We have a definite shot of colder air that will arrive Friday into Saturday and a wave of energy that will produce a Low pressure to the south. Areas south of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville look the best for getting precipitation and it could mix with or change to snow, especially west of I-95 and then back South west into the higher Piedmont areas of NC, SC and even GA. Yes a more southern system appears to be in the making. Areas along and east of I-5 in these regions could see a mix or even some periods of snow, but it is warm at the surface so this will be what I call "white rain" for many. Areas west of I-95 and further south could see some accumulations and i would not be surprised to see a 1 to 3" with isolated 4" spots from Southwestern VA down into Western NC and SC.
Further north, rain and snow showers will likely visit Saturday but it does not look too potent.. the further north, the less the chance to see anything.
STILL early on this so stay tuned!
All for now!
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UPCOMING STORM POSSIBILITYS
well first off we have a possible " storm" on the dec 5th-6th time frame. the euro , cmc, want to take it out to sea, the GFS brings at a little more west, the nam out to 84 hrs keepos it closer to coast, so with the way the models are all over the play, have to wait a day or two. then there is another possibility on dec 9th-12 time frame. thats 7+ days out so we will look at that in a few days as it gets closer. over 7 days out the models will be all over the place till we get closer. thanks more to come :)
*** LUKE***
Snow shot? Looks possible!
Seeing possibilities still coming together! Could see a few inches in some parts. I am not expecting a big system at this time. There are a few things that are peaking my interest. Some SE bias on the current model may mean more moisture.
What do I expect. Some snow! YES.. Some snow areas west of I-95 from about Richmond up to the DC and Baltimore area. Some rain to tart and a mix and turnover for many areas even along I-95. Areas that are mainly snow could see some accumulation on grassy areas.
A lot of details to be worked out. If things get more moist I am going to need to get a little more excited! I am just happy to see a snow chance on the December 5th date! It has snowed on that date a lot in the last 7 years!
All for now!
What do I expect. Some snow! YES.. Some snow areas west of I-95 from about Richmond up to the DC and Baltimore area. Some rain to tart and a mix and turnover for many areas even along I-95. Areas that are mainly snow could see some accumulation on grassy areas.
A lot of details to be worked out. If things get more moist I am going to need to get a little more excited! I am just happy to see a snow chance on the December 5th date! It has snowed on that date a lot in the last 7 years!
All for now!
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Snow risk update
There are definite trends towards showers this Saturday. If you
noticed, most forecasts have a risk now that did not even late last
evening. How much? Well I suspect we will see just a light mix of rain
and snow west of I-95 especially saturday evening. Could it be bigger?
Some models say yes. Could it be nothing? Yes. Many models say that
too! More to come including a late evening real post for a change!
noticed, most forecasts have a risk now that did not even late last
evening. How much? Well I suspect we will see just a light mix of rain
and snow west of I-95 especially saturday evening. Could it be bigger?
Some models say yes. Could it be nothing? Yes. Many models say that
too! More to come including a late evening real post for a change!
--
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Monday, November 30, 2009
First snow threat of the season?!
Some snow *COULD* mske it up this way this coming Friday Night... More to come!
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009
lukes winter 2009-2010 forecast!!
i think, the mid atlantic will have colder than normal temps and above normal precip, whether that means above normal snows depends largely on the track. i think with the light to mod elnino, we will have an active storm track to the south. with the way the pdo and soi are, and with the elnino rising slightly then expected to fall off after december, that could mean a colder winter then weve seen . and if we get the souther track going and more noreasters, we could get 150 to 200% of normal snowfall. but alot has to happen, but the potentail is there, some analogs used by j bastardi, for the up coming winter are a like ness to 63-64, 77-78, and 2002-2003. so i guess we have to wait an see. but i do think we will have at least our normal snowfall, maybe more. and a colder than normall winter. alot depends of track.
***luke***
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Historic Nor'easter
This is no small system! Storm warnings, High Wind warning, Flood watches and Warnings, and, yes, high elevation snows!
Parts of Eastern NC have already hit 8 to 10 inches of rain, and now I am thinking areas could see 15"+ amounts.
Winds will really start to crank up overnight into tomorrow. Flooding rains will be along and east of I -95 for the most part, although some rains have been in the 3 to 5 inch amounts in Southern Virginia.
Coastal flooding will be moderate to severe!
A state of Emergency has been declared for Virginia.
All in all, please listen to news and weather outlets for watches and warnings!
You can post Observations here:
http://forum.midatlanticweather.com/index.php?topic=1654.0
Stay safe!
Jimmy
Parts of Eastern NC have already hit 8 to 10 inches of rain, and now I am thinking areas could see 15"+ amounts.
Winds will really start to crank up overnight into tomorrow. Flooding rains will be along and east of I -95 for the most part, although some rains have been in the 3 to 5 inch amounts in Southern Virginia.
Coastal flooding will be moderate to severe!
A state of Emergency has been declared for Virginia.
All in all, please listen to news and weather outlets for watches and warnings!
You can post Observations here:
http://forum.midatlanticweather.com/index.php?topic=1654.0
Stay safe!
Jimmy
Very Heavy rainfall and windy conditions!
I hinted at this Sunday, but have been tied up and unable to update!
As the remnants of Ida and other pieces of energy all combine, a very powerful Nor'easter will slowly develop, deepen, and move slowly off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will mean prolonged rains, especially Southeastern and Eastern Virginia, North Carlina (more east than west), South Carolina, and Georgia. For 3 to 5 inches of rain will be common with areas receiving as much as 9 to 10 inches of rain totals along the coastal plains and along the shore. High winds will cause higher than normal tides with coastal floods and also beach erosion and rough seas. People should stay tuned to news and radio outlets for a full run down of weather issues and do not ever attempt to ride through water! This is a serious situation! Please be careful!
The Further North you are the less rainfall. Also Areas along and west of the Mountains will not see as much rains. The Piedmont and east will see the rains, and the closer to the coast you are, the heavier it will be.
All for now!
As the remnants of Ida and other pieces of energy all combine, a very powerful Nor'easter will slowly develop, deepen, and move slowly off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will mean prolonged rains, especially Southeastern and Eastern Virginia, North Carlina (more east than west), South Carolina, and Georgia. For 3 to 5 inches of rain will be common with areas receiving as much as 9 to 10 inches of rain totals along the coastal plains and along the shore. High winds will cause higher than normal tides with coastal floods and also beach erosion and rough seas. People should stay tuned to news and radio outlets for a full run down of weather issues and do not ever attempt to ride through water! This is a serious situation! Please be careful!
The Further North you are the less rainfall. Also Areas along and west of the Mountains will not see as much rains. The Piedmont and east will see the rains, and the closer to the coast you are, the heavier it will be.
All for now!
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Nice weather Today and tomorrow! Warmish - BIG RAIN THREAT
I haven't got a lot of time. Please enjoy today and tomorrow as temps soar to the upper 60s and even upper 70s for some.
A lot more concern rising on a Ida's influence on a Nor'easter type system including very heavy rains!
All for now!
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Jimmy's Winter 2009 - 2010 Outlook!
Let me tell you how I look at the forecast.
First, patterns up until now.
We have seen a lot of systems along the Eastern US this year. We have been wet and fairly cool this fall. This would be a favorable sign for a more snowy forecast, but I do not expect an extremely snowy forecast like AccuWeather (http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?partner=&traveler=0&date=2009-10-14_1255&month=10&year=2009). Several others are on board with more snow possibilities! Raleigh weather (AKA Allan Huffman) http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m10d30-Winter-forecast-200910-Part-1, Larry Cosgrove from WeatherAmerica, and the Capital Weather Gang ( http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/11/capital_weather_gang_2009-10_w.html )
We have some other thoughts as well. I know 2 pro-forecasters calling for warmer than normal and a normal forecast preliminarily by Dave Tgoleris at WxRisk - http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/winter0910/PUBLIC.htm
So what am I really thinking -
El Nino - what will you do! The warm body of water in the Pacific is the wildest card of the season. I am more and more convinced that feature will stomp my hopes of a snowy winter for the region!
Things I like for Snow -
1. Pattern has been showing good storms from Southern origins
2. Colder air has been locked in place a few times from some blocking patterns - the blocks of North American Oscillations and the Pacific North American areas have been favorable.
3. Snow cover is steadily advancing and the best I have seen this early in several years - http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
4. Some Sea Surface Temps off the Atlantic Northeast.
Things I am thinking counter high snow
1. El Nino
2. A lot of soil moisture (WxRisk covers this in his forecast)
3. Despite southern storms, I have seen quite a few main lows head west of mountains, which means warmer aloft and ice or rain.
So For Now -
I call for a little above normal snow and normal to slightly above normal temperatures - I am banking on a few larger snow storms in cold spells for above normal snow
Would not be surprised to see a warmer than normal end of winter if El Nino continues to strengthen
Would also expect big swings in temps so snow will not be on the ground a long time this winter.
That is my thinking - I am not a Meteorologist so this is just based on what I see, have read, and El Nino being a factor!
All for now!
First, patterns up until now.
We have seen a lot of systems along the Eastern US this year. We have been wet and fairly cool this fall. This would be a favorable sign for a more snowy forecast, but I do not expect an extremely snowy forecast like AccuWeather (http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?partner=&traveler=0&date=2009-10-14_1255&month=10&year=2009). Several others are on board with more snow possibilities! Raleigh weather (AKA Allan Huffman) http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m10d30-Winter-forecast-200910-Part-1, Larry Cosgrove from WeatherAmerica, and the Capital Weather Gang ( http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/11/capital_weather_gang_2009-10_w.html )
We have some other thoughts as well. I know 2 pro-forecasters calling for warmer than normal and a normal forecast preliminarily by Dave Tgoleris at WxRisk - http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/winter0910/PUBLIC.htm
So what am I really thinking -
El Nino - what will you do! The warm body of water in the Pacific is the wildest card of the season. I am more and more convinced that feature will stomp my hopes of a snowy winter for the region!
Things I like for Snow -
1. Pattern has been showing good storms from Southern origins
2. Colder air has been locked in place a few times from some blocking patterns - the blocks of North American Oscillations and the Pacific North American areas have been favorable.
3. Snow cover is steadily advancing and the best I have seen this early in several years - http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
4. Some Sea Surface Temps off the Atlantic Northeast.
Things I am thinking counter high snow
1. El Nino
2. A lot of soil moisture (WxRisk covers this in his forecast)
3. Despite southern storms, I have seen quite a few main lows head west of mountains, which means warmer aloft and ice or rain.
So For Now -
I call for a little above normal snow and normal to slightly above normal temperatures - I am banking on a few larger snow storms in cold spells for above normal snow
Would not be surprised to see a warmer than normal end of winter if El Nino continues to strengthen
Would also expect big swings in temps so snow will not be on the ground a long time this winter.
That is my thinking - I am not a Meteorologist so this is just based on what I see, have read, and El Nino being a factor!
All for now!
Breezy Night - Cool Friday - Sunny Weekend -
Breezes are kicking up thanks to a Low off of Nova Scotia that is really starting to deepen. With breezes not much of a chance for frost as has been the case for many recently.
A cool Friday with highs not cracking the 40s for most areas in the north and mountains. Cool night for Friday night. After a few weekends of rainy weather, we look like sunny skies and seasonable cool temps!
A nice day Monday with highs in the mid and upper 60s with some 70s likely. A cold front will cross regions and bring highs back down to 50s and low 60s the rest of the week. Looks fairly dry for now!
So what is my winter forecast?
Separate post to follow!
All for now!
A cool Friday with highs not cracking the 40s for most areas in the north and mountains. Cool night for Friday night. After a few weekends of rainy weather, we look like sunny skies and seasonable cool temps!
A nice day Monday with highs in the mid and upper 60s with some 70s likely. A cold front will cross regions and bring highs back down to 50s and low 60s the rest of the week. Looks fairly dry for now!
So what is my winter forecast?
Separate post to follow!
All for now!
Cool - breezy - few showers - pretty dry
Today will be cool and an increase in clouds and breezes. As a
disturbance moves though some sprinkles will be possible. This will be
especially true for northern areas of VA, in MD and PA. Winds will
also increase.
Cool 40s tomorrow north and mid 50s south.
disturbance moves though some sprinkles will be possible. This will be
especially true for northern areas of VA, in MD and PA. Winds will
also increase.
Cool 40s tomorrow north and mid 50s south.
A dry sunny weekend looks to be in the works. Warmer conditions Monday
and then seasonal until mid next week.
Tropics spun up Hurricane Ida which is bearing down on Nicaragua this morning.
All for now.
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