Some Mix Possible

Some mixing of sleet and snow and freezing rain possible immediate piedmont of Northern VA and MD tonight. Rain Monday. Little accumulations on grassy areas. More later!

02/11 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

Cold and Windy conditions will give way to a normal temperature day. Weekend is looking pleasant, But I MUST WARN You that Sunday may end up a lot colder and damper than the way it looks now if a back door cold front comes through. Monday poses a threat of rain, though some mix could be present at its start. Next week is a mystery weather wise, as we continue to deal with model inconsistencies and tough forecasting

Summary:

Every time it seems that there is a good shot at cold and snow on model depictions for 7-10 days out, the forecast changes and differing scenarios come out. Confusion at best with next week as models show potential for a cold return, but some are not as robust as they were and others are too inconsistent to trust. All in all, it gives someone trying to forecast a headache! A great weekend is on tap with temperatures running slightly above normal….HOWEVER, there is a chance that Sunday a backdoor cold front puts a damper colder look to Sunday, especially in the north. We are getting closer to the spring, so back door cold fronts (fronts that usher in cold moist air from the ocean) are more prominent. The system Monday could have enough cold air at the start to provide a mix with sleet, and maybe some immediate piedmont icing issues if the High over New England is colder than what is currently showing. I do not expect much of an issue at this time, but will watch. It would be a Northern Virginia and Maryland issue if it were a problem at all.

Again, it appears there is a chance of a cold return next week, but nothing definite as models are sometime more excited about the idea than others. If the cold comes, it also appears a shot of Wintry precip could occur between Wenesday and Friday of next week.

Next week appears to set the stage for winters return as a split flow pattern sets up and cold air comes down from Canada. This cold may rival any cold we have had this year. One difference will be an active Southern Branch of the Jet stream that could link forces both at the start of the cold and later in the week.

NOTE: FORUM loss! It was my fault! There was a database that I had created for the forum that was clearly marked as the forum database. Retrospectively I now remember that the database that I had created had issues and I had used another database, with an obscure name, to hold the forum information. In an event to upgrade the forum software, I also cleaned up databases, and, inadvertently deleted the obscure database! Yes, stupid reality, but the truth. Very depressing. The 22 member community is down to 2! PLEASE COME BACK! I greatly apologize to the members and made some needed changes to avoid the possibility in the future! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Cold windy morning, seasonal afternoon.

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Nice!

Sunday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55 (UNLESS back door cold front comes through)

Nice again, with some increase in clouds. If the back door front arrives in the north, temps will come down.

Monday: SW: 40-50 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Morning rain, or rain/sleet mix in the north, with seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Nicer.

Wednesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Tough call as a chance of light snow could come for parts of the region if colder temps return. Confidence beyond Wednesday is low!

Long Term:

A turn to colder conditions could occur around Wednesday, and, as noted, a possibility of snow could also occur. Will keep you posted.

All for Now!

02/09 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

The last in this string of mild days will be followed by a mild weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms and heavy rain overnight! Snow showers (Mountain snow too) possible tomorrow and MAYBE Friday in the north and mountains. Mid next week appears to be the time we take a real plunge to colder readings that may take us to March (maybe beyond). The 50/50 low will not be here Monday, so if precip falls, rain will be the result.

Summary:

Evidence has mounted and the 50/50 low ill not make a return Monday so we will see some rain showers that day if anything at all! Looks like we have some potential for snow showers tomorrow morning and MAYBE Friday. The snow showers tomorrow would come at the end of a good shot of rain tonight with possible Thunderstorms. This storm will plaster Northern New Englands Interior with 1 to 2 feet of snow and cause a very windy and cold day tomorrow. The weekend ends up milder as the threat of the New England system becoming a 50/50 low has pretty much disappeared on any model depiction.

Next week appears to set the stage for winters return as a split flow pattern sets up and cold air comes down from Canada. This cold may rival any cold we have had this year. One difference will be an active Southern Branch of the Jet stream that could link forces both at the start of the cold and later in the week.

Thanks to all who posted to and joined the Forum. Sometimes I can write a quick comment there that I cannot here so you should check for long term and forecast discussions if you have not! Our community has grown to 22 members. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Still pleasant temps, but afternoon rain showers possible. Overnight heavy rain and possible Thunderstorms.

Thursday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Breezy. Maybe a morning shower (or even snow shower North and Mountains)

Friday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Milder again!

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Nice!

Sunday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Mild and slightly above normal Temperatures.

Monday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

MOTS! More of the same, but slight chance of a rain shower.

Tuesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

MOTS! More of the same.

Long Term:

A turn to colder conditions could occur around Mid Week that may come with a wave of snow after it arrives and have another shot later in the week. I believe the next cold stretch will be it for the winter, as it will take us into March.

All for Now!

A mild day on hand with temps reaching well into the 60’s area wide. Tomorrow a front will move through the area and temperatures will return to season for the weekend. Potential exits next week for snow, but definitely potential for a colder pattern. POTENTIAL is the key word here!

Summary:Sorry it has been so long since I updated. Between problems with the plumbing in our house to having a young family life is anything but slow! Only good news has been that the weather has been inactive. As a snow lover that is not really good news, but helped me not feel too guilty about lack of updates. The forecast I had before was OK, but the heavy rains and thunder I expected on Thursday will not be there. A front will cross the area tomorrow and then Thursday will be a windy day with temperatures back to seasonal levels. The weather stays tranquil until Sunday night, when the first Potential storm shows up! What will it be? Ironically a lot depends on what happens with the storm that will rock New England Thursday (and cause us wind) with snow! That low may set up a 50/50 low ( see http://www.wxrisk.com/SECS/5050/50-50.htm for understanding of its importance). If the 50/50 sets up., Mondays precip could easily be snow. If it does not, a milder look to early next week appears!

Thanks to all who posted to and joined the Forum. Sometimes I can write a quick comment there that I cannot here so you should check for long term and forecast discussions if you have not! Our community has grown to 22 members. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Continued warm! Partly Cloudy.

Wednesday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 60-70

Still pleasant temps, but afternoon rain showers possible.

Thursday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Breezy. Maybe a morning shower (or even snow shower North and Mountains)

Friday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Seasonal

Saturday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Seasonal

Sunday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Increasing Clouds. Possible Rain and or Snow overnight depending on location and the 50/50 low as discussed above.

Long Term:

A turn to colder conditions could occur around Mid Week. There is a possibility that the Monday system will be a larger snow, but much to watch. If it does not snow Monday, it is because the pattern did not evolve with the 50/50 low, so early week temperatures could be very mild. I believe the next cold stretch will be it for the winter as it will take us into March.

All for Now!

Snow Accumulating!

Appears that the Immediate Piedmont of Virginia and Maryland Could See 1-3" of snow today! Snow has been increasing in these areas significantly. I will continue to Monitor

2/3 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Scattered rain and snow through the state, mainly south, today. 1-3” possible in far Southwest and in the Higher elevations of the Appalachians. Elsewhere, no substantial accumulations expected. Today into tomorrow will be the coldest temperatures we have for about a week. A very potent storm system will rock the middle of the country next week and swing a strong cold front through the region. Temperatures behind the front will cool back down.

Summary:

Sorry for not being more consistent with daily updates. I have been busy at home with plumbing issues that were finally remedied last night! Today is the most “exciting” day o this week weather wise. A low pressure system is traversing the area along the North Carolina and Virginia border. Temperatures are marginally cold enough for snow, sleet, and freezing rain especially in the southwest. Southern areas should see periods of rain mixed with snow and sleet at times, but temps will be very close to freezing or slightly above. Area wide, snow and rain showers could occur, with no appreciable accumulations except the Southwest, as well as mountainous areas where 1-3” will possibly occur.

Weather looking much milder for the next 6 to seven days. Then a very powerful storm looks to affect the middle part of the country and then its trailing cold front should sweep through the area with heavy rains and even possible thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, next Thursday. After this, a colder pattern should set up.

Thanks to all who have posted to the Forum. Our community has grown to 22 members. Great observations and feedback. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

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Forecast:

Today: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 35-45

Wintry Mix and some snow possible Southwest and mountains with 1-3” accumulations. Elsewhere a mix or rain and snow showers are possible and more prevalent in southern areas.

Friday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Getting Milder!

Saturday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

And Milder! Partly Cloudy.

Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Very Mild!! Partly Cloudy.

Monday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Very Mild!! Partly Cloudy.

Tuesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Very Mild!! Partly to Mostly Cloudy.

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Very Mild!! Increasing Cloudiness.

Thursday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Potential for Heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Long Term:

A turn to colder conditions appears likely next weekend after the front clears the area.

All for Now!

01/30 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Another weekend, and another bust for me. I am learning though! This week LOOKS bland in many respects, but, like I have said, between Jan 15^th and Feb 15^th there are many ways that snow can happen, when it looks like no snow is forecasted! This week bears watching, but may end up as bland as it looks! Longer term I see a true return to arctic chill, but an active Southern Branch of the Jet stream will mean chances of winter weather that will ironically threaten southern areas more than Northern.

Summary:

The weekend storm was interesting. Some things I need to learn this year! There is the Global Forecast Model (GFS) and the North American Model (NAM formerly ETA) that are used as the primary weather forecasting models. This winter the NAM has been good, to an extent, on the placement of lows and showing that there will be warm air in the upper levels for possible mixes of precipitation. It has been too warm with its predictions, but should be noted. Its precipitation output has been terrible, but this has not been helped by the GFS, which has been forecasting much colder than the actual storms have been. Next system I will be modifying thoughts from these two and giving some weight to their strengths, but really taking into account their weaknesses! Hopefully this will help!

This week is interesting, though the action may be south, east and then North of our region! First is a southern Storm that will likely be suppressed south in its track due to the Low that went through here this weekend. The low from this weekend will hang out near Bermuda and intensify and possibly move west! Yes.. west! The low to the south will interact with the low near Bermuda and could phase. There is yet another piece of energy in the northern Jet stream that could interact and pull the phased low to the west to hit New England. So a southern low goes south of us (though this needs to be watched) then out to the east it phases and then gets pulled northwestward to affect New England! Wild, but leaves us in the open! But, as I said, this time of year can be tricky so our Southern low will need to be watched for possible Northward movement. There are signs the low could stay near the coast and give us a shot at some precipitation. The Southern areas really need to be on watch, and if the Oceanic Low combo is close enough, the Eastern areas need to be on guard! There could be a huge Gale center that ends up giving the coast quite an erosion problem, as the Low will be moving slowly!

Needless to say, it is exciting in some respects, but may end up giving us the one dry and mild areas on the East Coast!

Longer term, this large Oceanic low may help send a surge of Arctic Air this way making us cold in about 10 days!

So a bland week, with a lot of action all around us! Will we really go unaffected? I will watch and see!

Thanks to all who posted to the Forum. Our community has grown to 21 members. Great observations and feedback. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Milder and sunny!

Tuesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Continued warming! Sunny Skies!

Wednesday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Above normal temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 35-45

Southern Storm Bears Watching! Wintry Mix possible Southwest and Parts of the South. Cloudy to Partly cloudy elsewhere!

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 40-50

Milder again!

Saturday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 45-55

Milder!

Sunday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Mild!

Long Term:

A turn to colder conditions is likely around Mid Week. Looks like a good chance of a snowstorm as soon as the cold air arrives.

All for Now!

Thoughts On Storm and Map Posted

A lot of potential may result in serious forecast busts! This is my best call for now! Please see the last call that I am making unless I see significant shift to the north on precipitation and the coastal low. Totals in the South Central could be overdone if sleet and freezing rain become the dominant type. This is obvious, but a real quandary. Also, as much as the models are locked on what the northward movement of totals will be, I keep having a nagging feeling a lot more precip will make it north. That may be all it is.. a feeling.. or my dinner! HA! Anyways, this represents the last snow threat I see for about a week to 10 days! But, as I said before, I think this is usually peak time for snow storms, so things may really change. Again, Snow will start later tomorrow afternoon and then tomorrow night. Things should be done late Sunday UNLESS the coastal storm does something more than what is shown now! http://www.midatlanticweather.com/01_29_2005_f.gif Please sign up, give thoughts about, and post observations at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

01/27 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

Ice storm threat for Southwest and South Central Virginia. All types of precip likely this weekend for the rest of the area!

 

Due to family commitments this will be very quick.

 

A southern system will override cold air that is in place this weekend. This will set up a mix of snow, and then mainly sleet and freeing rain especially in Southwestern and south central Virginia. The rest of the area will see light precipitation. This situation will be monitored as details become a it clearer. The precipitation threat is mainly Saturday Night through Sunday.

 

More to come tonight on this threat!

 

All for now!

01/26 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlooks

In a split flow it is really hard to tell what systems will do. Some rain today, some flurries possible. Colder Tomorrow and Friday. Some hints at light wintry precipitation this weekend, bigger threat possible early next week, Longer term could be a repeat of last weekend.

Summary: Warmer air is invading the region and a front is going to cross the area. Widespread light to even moderate rain has shown up on radar. This will likely be the case through the morning, as scattered showers will continue. As colder air works in this afternoon and evening a few snow showers across the north are not out of the question. The models through the next week or so are not going to do great on events but give a sense of what the weather may be. With that in mind, there is a chance of a cold air damming episode this weekend in which Southwestern Virginia will pick up freezing rain, possibly after a slight bit of snow and sleet to start. This is not certain, but looks possible. The precip **MAY** make it northward and give most areas a chance of light precipitation which could come as rain and snow and sleet mixed (though I think mainly light rain). Temps will be close to freezing, but not severely cold, so, unless heavier precipitation arrives I am not expecting something too significant. THERE is a possibility that something  may organize early next week, but, as I said, models are not convincing.

Longer term, there is talk of 2 possibilities of wintry weather next week, but we have a long time to look at that! One reminds me a lot of the last big system, that just missed us.. we will see!

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 21 members. Great observations and feedback. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55
Above normal temperatures! Some rain today especially central. Temps drop for some snow flurries possible north.

Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Much colder! Thursday night may be the coldest of the season.

Friday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Partly Cloudy

Saturday: : SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40 (temps could be adjusted downwards)
Some cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40
Light wintry mix, snow, and or rain possible.

Monday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain possible
 
Tuesday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain possible.

Long Term:
This weekend system will need to be watched for its inconvenience. Temps look seasonal next week. Nothing is totally clear for next week but there could be 2 chances of winter weather.

       
All for now!

 

01/25 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Where are we headed? The pattern ahead should be somewhat challenging. I would say we are in an equal opportunity storm pattern. Storms could either be snowy or icy or rain. The split flow will be difficult for the models to handle, not that the models have been all that great. I do see more opportunities for precipitation than has been the case. With the southern branch of the jet stream pumping more sub tropical systems towards our region. I am not seeing a bitter cold sustaining outbreak, but I see the stronger signals of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. If you put this all together I think we run a higher risk of winter storms for the next few weeks. I call this season the height of our winter storm season. To me it runs from about January 15^th to about February 15^th. What I notice during this time of the year is that the Highs to the north have an interesting ability to seep more cold air into the region than early model runs indicate. This may the case this weekend as a low appears to form along the coast and possibly ride up the coast if the NAO goes and stays negative. Summary: This time of year has more wintry storms that do not look wintry on models until they get closer. Reality may be that the storms are rain. Just some thoughts

Summary: Warmer air is invading the region and will moderate temperatures today and especially tomorrow. Cannot rule out a shower of  rain or snow overnight. Nothing like yesterday's surprise snow squall! Colder air invaded Thursday and Thursday night could be one of the coldest of the season as cold air comes sliding off a New England snow pack! Interesting things could be here Sunday as "Stale" cold air and a potential southern/coastal storm appear to come this way.

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 21 members. Great observations and feedback. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/

Forecast:

Today: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45
Moderating temperatures! Cloudy skies. A brief rain or snow shower possible tonight.

Wednesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55
Above normal temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Much colder! Thursday night may be the coldest of the season.

Friday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Partly Cloudy

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40 (temps could be adjusted downwards)
Some cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain.

Monday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain.
 
Long Term:
This weekend system will need to be watched. Temps look seasonal next week.
       
All for now!

 

01/24 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

It was a big storm, but a big miss for me! I will try and recap the storm. This week we see a moderation in temperatures for a few days ABOVE NORMAL, a clipper to turn us colder and then??? Another winter storm possible this weekend!

Summary:
Very cold and windy conditions followed our "storm" which was far less than what I had advertised. Late Friday night it became apparent to me that my thoughts were likely wrong. My headline changed, but my last call map was my last call so I let it stand. I learned a lot from this event, the biggest is that the models are showing systems further south than they should. This storm rocked the Northeast. <http://news.bostonherald.com/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=64954> .

This week: We have a chance of some flurries up north today. Moderating temperatures. A clipper through Thursday. Colder temps for a day then seasonal. MAYBE a winter storm this weekend.

Thanks to all who posted to the Forum. Our community has grown to 20 members. Great observations and feedback. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. <http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/>

Forecast:

Today: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Cold, but not as cold as yesterday.  A few flurries in the northern regions not out of the question.

Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50
Moderating temperatures!

Wednesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55
Above normal temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Maybe a shower and turning colder!

Friday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35
Partly Cloudy

Saturday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40 (temps could be adjusted downwards)
Some cloudiness.

Sunday: SW: 25-35 SE: 25-35 N: 25-35
Wintry mix, snow, and or rain..most likely changing to rain if it occurs

Long Term:
This weekend system will need to be watched. Temps look seasonal next week.
       
All for now!

1/22 Snow Alert Update

Concerns about track of low and possible sleet and Freezing rain Central regions on my forecast map.. For latest thoughts and discussion today you can visit http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb/ . PLEASE add you observations and thoughts.

 

FYI.. 8:15 am and light flurries in Sterling VA

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Last Call

 

Highlighting major areas: (Think of regions around these points, not the location itself)

Hagerstown: 4-8 some 10+

Baltimore: 6-12 some 14+

Washington DC National: 5-10 some 10+

Washington DC Dulles: 4-8 some 10+

Stafford: 3-6 with icing issues

Fredericksburg: :  3-6 with icing issues

Charlottesville: 3-6 with icing issues

Richmond: 2-4 with icing concerns.

Wakefield: 1-2”

Norfolk: 1-2”. Risk of some backlash

Roanoke: 2-4 with icing concerns

Lynchburg: 3-6 with icing issues

SEE MAP: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif for my First Guess!

 

Quick updates:

 

Size of Storm: Areas in northeast could easily see a lot more if back lash from coastal gets involved. Also, adjustments could occur if system happens to dig more.

When: Saturday morning and overnight, though mostly over by midnight, except Northeast. Will be very cold and windy.

How Much: My last thoughts  http://www.midatlanticweather.com/Images/01_22_2005_final.gif

 

Concerns:

1. There are models showing a very substantial event in areas I am being somewhat conservative on.
2. Location of upper features are still not totally clear, and there could be a serious dry slot limiting snow in Northwester VA! Some people may really be surprised at smaller amounts than expected!

 

All for now!

 

 

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2 Systems to deal with the next Few Days! First: Snow likely TONIGHT southern half of Virginia, maybe a brief period in the north! Next, the system this weekend is going to be VERY HARD to get specific on. Every time a get a sense of what is going to happen, enough changes to mess me up.

First System:

Size: 1-2 inches not out of the question.
When: Tonight
Where: Lynchburg to Richmond to Waldorf and south have the best chance for some accumulations. Dusting possible north of here.

Second System Update:

Size: Somewhat hard to tell.
When: SATURDAY.. I forgot to say this last time.
Where? Not 100% sure.

Models continue to give mixed signals. I still say snow will fall. I am not so sure I am clear on where axis of heavier snows will line up.

 
Concerns still exist:

1.      Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today, BUT NOW is pretty unlikely. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.

2.      A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.

3.      The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!). This will have to be watched

4.      There may also be more Arctic air involved which would increase snow ratios. All that means would be more snow would accumulate from small amounts of precip.

All for now!

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2 Systems to deal with the next Few Days! First: Snow likely TONIGHT southern half of Virginia, maybe a brief period in the north! Next, the system this weekend is going to be VERY HARD to get specific on. Every time a get a sense of what is going to happen, enough changes to mess me up.

First System:

Size: 1-2 inches not out of the question.
When: Tonight
Where: Lynchburg to Richmond to Waldorf and south have the best chance for some accumulations. Dusting possible north of here.

Second System Update:

Size: Somewhat hard to tell.
When: SATURDAY.. I forgot to say this last time.
Where? Not 100% sure.

Models continue to give mixed signals. I still say snow will fall. I am not so sure I am clear on where axis of heavier snows will line up.

 
Concerns still exist:

1.      Phasing could come back into play, which would likely re-appear today, BUT NOW is pretty unlikely. If so, mixing would get involved in more areas and higher amounts where snow was the primary precip type.

2.      A coastal system will take over at some point. Though this could increase snow amounts, I have seen these systems become, what I like to call, Piedmont Robbers! The energy during transfer takes the heavy snow band and jumps the piedmont areas.

3.      The Coastal system MAY be close enough for a backlash snow which could greatly increase amounts somewhere (Maybe east of I-95!). This will have to be watched

4.      There may also be more Arctic air involved which would increase snow ratios. All that means would be more snow would accumulate from small amounts of precip.

All for now!