1/24 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

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yes, I have been bored by the weather! Sorry, as I have remained busy in life too! Weather takes a more normal turn the next couple of days, followed by a milder trend. Signs point to possibilities of wintry weather next week, but will it be cold enough?

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Summary:  I am going to TRY and do better! I must admit the weather dictates a lot of the way I post. I am sorry as I am not as often to be a Fair Weather poster! The weather remains milder than normal for the most part, with January ready to finish 4 or more degrees above normal for a lot of people! That being said, some heavy snows will fall in the higher elevations of Western Virginia as an upslope snow event takes place. This would be western facing mountains, but a few flurries could make it over. This would be tonight into tomorrow. The culprit is a clipper system that will usher in normal temps and breezy conditions for the region.  As noted, we start to mild up this weekend and another system may affect us around Saturday with more rain. Just to be mentioned, there is a **POSSIBILITY** of a storm next week that could be wintry for parts of the region. The concern will be getting cold air here, but it is nice to see real potential on the models again!

 

   

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community has grown to 41 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

1/17 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

WINDY RAINS,  COOLER BRIEFLY. WHEN WILL COLD COME BACK?

I have been busy again and thus the lack of writing here. Life seems to go faster when you get older and then things that bring you enjoy do not get the time they need to do it well. I will probably only post during bigger events, but boy did I miss last weekend. Looks like a repeat is about to happen, though the ending as snow is unlikely this time, thunderstorms will be a big player.

 

The chance does exist for gusty winds and even isolated tornadoes again as the dynamics will be strong, though maybe not as much thunder.

 

Winds will usher in colder temperatures again, but they are likely to head to normal in less than 24 hours!

 

What is the deal? Well, the NAO has gone positive (strongly), the Sea Surface Temperatures are not favorable for negative turns. The Arctic Oscillation showed signs of potential colder pattern flip near the end of the month… I think it will, but it is hard to tell. The warmer temps look to remain until the last few days. The storms every couple of days will likely continue, but there may be a chance of something next week… Tuesday time frame.. that may be worth watching!

 

Hopefully things will get interesting for snow lovers soon!

 

All for now!

 

 

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

1/10 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

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Signs of a La Nina year really have been apparent in pattern, and now realized by the Climate Prediction Center. The winter could have some really cold snaps left in it, but dry.. more likely, not much weather for snow and usually paints to a dry lower plains! A big rain and winds storm on tap this weekend but milder temps will likely return next week.

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Summary:  Wow is it warm. Kind of reminds me of last January which was warmer than this if you can believe it! The pattern is not showing signs of change, but a large wind and rain maker appears on its way for this weekend. I had real hopes this would be the pattern changer! It does not appear it will be! Canada gets colder and a strong Pacific jet just hinder our chances of a good colder weather pattern. Some encouragement is a Negative NAO possible in February based on the Climatology of La Nina patterns.

 

See this PPT on current La Nina conditions: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...s-fcsts-web.ppt

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 40 members and surpassed 8400 posts!. We have even added a Meteorologist (a friend of mine). Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

 

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Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

1/10 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Signs of a La Nina year really have been apparent in pattern, and now realized by the Climate Prediction Center. The winter could have some really cold snaps left in it, but dry.. more likely, not much weather for snow and usually paints to a dry lower plains! A big rain and winds storm on tap this weekend but milder temps will likely return next week.

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Summary:  Wow is it warm. Kind of reminds me of last January which was warmer than this if you can believe it! The pattern is not showing signs of change, but a large wind and rain maker appears on its way for this weekend. I had real hopes this would be the pattern changer! It does not appear it will be! Canada gets colder and a strong Pacific jet just hinder our chances of a good colder weather pattern. Some encouragement is a Negative NAO possible in February based on the Climatology of La Nina patterns.

 

See this PPT on current La Nina conditions: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...s-fcsts-web.ppt

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 40 members and surpassed 8400 posts!. We have even added a Meteorologist (a friend of mine). Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

 

Need a Hosting Solution? My host is incredible. Now offering 60 GB of storage and 300 GB of transfer a month, unlimited email addresses, ftp accounts, and unlimited number of domain names pointing to the same server,  I have found nothing better! Also, reliable as ever! http://www.vodahost.com?a_aid=0048a41a

 

Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

1/10/2006 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Signs of a La Nina year really have been apparent in pattern, and now realized by the Climate Prediction Center. The winter could have some really cold snaps left in it, but dry.. more likely, not much weather for snow and usually paints to a dry lower plains! A big rain and winds storm on tap this weekend but milder temps will likely return next week.

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Summary: Wow is it warm. Kind of reminds me of last January which was warmer than this if you can believe it! The pattern is not showing signs of change, but a large wind and rain maker appears on its way for this weekend. I had real hopes this would be the pattern changer! It does not appear it will be! Canada gets colder and a strong Pacific jet just hinder our chances of a good colder weather pattern. Some encouragement is a Negative NAO possible in February based on the Climatology of La Nina patterns.

See this PPT on current La Nina conditions: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...s-fcsts-web.ppt

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 40 members and surpassed 8400 posts!. We have even added a Meteorologist (a friend of mine). Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Need a Hosting Solution? My host is incredible. Now offering 60 GB of storage and 300 GB of transfer a month, unlimited email addresses, ftp accounts, and unlimited number of domain names pointing to the same server, I have found nothing better! Also, reliable as ever! http://www.vodahost.com?a_aid=0048a41a

Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

1/4 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

 

Mild weather will give way to colder temps this weekend. Things look to warm up again next week. A few weather memories and the Tropics too!

 

 

Outlook: Weather remains on the warmer than normal side until Friday when a polar front does make it through the area and send our readings to about or just below normal. Looking. This system bears some watching, as it will have the possibility of spinning some moisture towards the coast. It is ** Possible ** that the system could become more intense and cause some snow for the region, but, the models have been persistent in bringing the feature off shore. It does appear that the temps will moderate again next week with another chance of rain next Thursday timeframe.

 

Some interesting things weather wise: Tropical Storm Zeta is out in the Atlantic and is maintaining a strong Tropical Storm Status at 65 mph. The system will likely maintain strength and it could even strengthen. The system has defied forecasters as it was believed to fall apart very quickly, but has strengthened when it was believed it would weaken. If it becomes a Hurricane it will be the firstly ever to have formed in the Atlantic in January!

 

The reason for our mild weather has been the Pacific Jet that threatens to be a big player the rest of winter. In such a pattern it is hard to buck the jet stream dramatically for big storms. That being said, the storms that do show up can be very moist…and if the right combo occurs, good snows can occur. December was anomalous in its cold, but now I feel my winter forecast is in line with the pattern. December was a bust for me, but I think a milder than normal winter with short intrusions of cold air and a chance for above normal snows because of the moisture will be in the cards the rest of winter.. but I am no meteorologist.. and I hope it is colder than I think.

 

Remembering 1996 (10 years ago!), a warm week is suddenly plummeted to cold and a strong storm, forecast by many models on the Polar Jet, suddenly jumps to the Arctic Jet on American models about 36 hours before the event (The EURO was on it earlier) and we had a big snow! I lived in Oakton, VA and my roommate bet me it would not snow 18 inches or he would clean my car off the rest of the winter! He made good on the bet as we shoveled the 18 inches form my car! What an awesome event!

 

Well that is all for now!

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org/

 

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Look at the weather:

 

Normal to above normal temps with rain chances continuing. We have just a few showers today. Pretty cool temps today, but seasonal.

 

Another chance of rain Monday after a Sunday of slightly above normal temps.

 

Then yet more rain chances Mid Week. There is a colder shot coming Friday and This coming weekend and there are a few things to watch, but I am not convinced of snow yet.

 

Honestly I am not sure the cooler/colder pattern will last. We will have to wait and see.

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/28 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Quick Update, because it has been too long!

 

After a very cold Month, we did  big switch in temperatures right in time for Christmas. Thus a rainy Christmas and quite the quiet down on the web site. I am sorry! After one last that will keep me from posting, I hope to get back into the swing of things!\

 

Some quick thoughts:

Why did we warm? The Undercutting of the ridge on the west coast (+PNA) pattern broke down. This has allowed the Pacific jet to really crank and cause a succession of storms to hit the west coast ad transverse the country. These storms are energetic and mild as they bring Pacific air and not arctic air.

 

Another low comes through tonight and tomorrow and then more rain/showers are expected on Saturday.

 

When will it change? There re strong hints that the end of next week could bring changes and a return to wintry weather. It is so far out, but worth noting!

 

All for today! More to come starting Friday!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/15 Winter Weather Alert

Significant Icing likely for some. I-95 areas should be spared the worst

 

Cold air has really stuck well in many areas. Anyone east of the Mountains and in the Mountain valleys up to about 25 miles west of  I-95 from Baltimore to Fredericksburg and then 25 miles west of a line from Fredericksburg to Danville should see a significant Ice storm! Ice accrual will be .25 to .5”, which will be substantial enough for power outages and definitely driving problems. About 25 miles either side of that same line could see .15 to .20” of accrual. This will be hazardous as well, but also will be limited by a turnover to rain later today or this evening.

 

The Mountains from Hot Springs area northward should see a 3-6” snow with mixing of sleet a freezing rain as well. That snow will help offset some of the worst issues with the ice.

 

 

For many areas in the Southwestern Part of the state, the precipitation has already begun.

 

I expect the Northern areas will see precipitation by noon.

Precip will start as snow for most, and then mix over quickly to sleet and then Freezing rain.

 

Be Careful!

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/14 Winter Weather Alert: UPDATED

Winter Weather Event will likely cause problems in the Mountains, and with commutes

 

What?

A Mixture of Snow and Sleet as well as freezing rain will hamper the Morning commute tomorrow, but the extent of the frozen precip will be lessened as the storm system is expected to run more inland as it comes towards the area. Expect most areas to see a brief mix with a quick turnover to rain. This will not be as likely far western sections of Maryland

 

A very Heavy rain event tomorrow evening for areas that see ice outside of far western Mayland and Far western Virginia, this will likley melt it!

 

Where?

Most areas will see a quick shot of some sleet and snow quickly changing to rain and freezing rain. Freezing rain will persist in the mountainous areas especially the valleys, of Virginia and Maryland. Some higher elevation of far western areas will see snow (VA and MD) and then some Ice. Snow in central and Western Pennsylvania, though Far SW PA will see a mix and even rain for a while. This storm will not be a big icing event east of the mountains.

Some thoughts on amounts:

Western Maryland (Hagerstown) could see 2-4”.. then sleet and freezing rain.. west of and including this region could see a significant Ice Storm

 

Far Western Loudoun: 1-2” Snow then Sleet and Freezing rain and rain ..

Shenandoah valley, North of Hot Springs: 1-2” snow.. then ice and sleet.. to rain.. back to snow briefly

Coastal plains east of I-95 will see little mix to quick rain.

 

I-95 cities and west to immediate Piedmont, north of Fredericksburg could see a light coating

 

Cites west of a Fredericksburg to Lynchburg line could see some coating of ice early, then a mix over to rain.

 

 

When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning

 

Comments: This system has taken on much more of a warm look. The issue will be that a little precip will cause huge problems tomorrow as it is these minor events that can snarl traffic for hours!  The Ground, especially in Northern Virginia, is frozen and many stations are reporting road temps below freezing. Long and short.. not a big event, but a big headache is possible tomorrow morning depending on when the storm starts

 

As noted, I do not have time to update the mp, but it looks wrong now!

 

Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week! Details are still being worked out!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/13 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

What?

Significant Icing event. Moderate Icing event and Light Icing event

Some Accumulating Snows

 

Where?

Significant Icing: Immediate Piedmont: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina

Major Icing: Immediate Piedmont to 35 miles west of I-95; Maryland, Virginia

North  Carolina : West Central NC

Light Icing: I-95 to about 35 miles west of  I-95: West Central NC

Snows: Higher elevations of Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. A large Part of Pennsylvania, West 40 miles west of I-95

 

When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning

 

Comments: Tough call in many ways. A lot of precip will fall over very shallow cold air. The Warm air appears to truly Surge over the area and warm areas close to or above freezing. There is a chance for significant rains as well. If things stay frozen, ice storm conditions could be reached by a lot more areas than what I am indicating on my first guess map. May issue a follow up call tomorrow night.. but my guess may be all the time I have to do.

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/9 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

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What an active period we just came out of. Apparent more tranquil for the next several days but cold!

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Summary:  Amazing how early it is in the Winter Season and parts of the region have had 4 bouts of wintry weather in the last 3 weeks. Colder air has settled in for a while. Snow cover has overspread a huge chunk of north America.. it is turning out much colder and potentially stormier than I thought!  So far, no blockbuster storms for us, but we have a ways to go! There are indications that something could come at us towards the end of next week. We will have to see. Quite honestly, it is nice to relax a few days and enjoy the fact that it feels like winter! See storm post mortem at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. Our community has grown to 35 members and surpassed 7500 posts!. We have even added a Meteorologist (a friend of mine) who had great things to share in the last storm. Please join those who have so we can get good feedback and regional coverage. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

 

Need a Hosting Solution? My host is incredible. Now offering 60 GB of storage and 300 GB of transfer a month, unlimited email addresses, ftp accounts, and unlimited number of domain names pointing to the same server,  I have found nothing better! Also, reliable as ever! http://www.vodahost.com?a_aid=0048a41a

 

Forecast thoughts are those of Mid Atlantic Weather and should never e used for official forecasts. Please rely on official forecasts by the National Weather Service or other agencies for life and property decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

12/8 Late in the game: Last Call

My final thoughts on this one!

 

Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. Starting 8-10pm
Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Lynchburg 1"  Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Richmond: Rain

Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
DC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
Baltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 9-Midnight

Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. 8-11pm

Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10") Starting 8-11pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 8-11pm

 

Please note.. this is a dynamic system.. it could compensate for some warmth that it is en-training off the ocean and cause places to shift between snow and sleet and freezing rain. If we get Thunderstorms( a possibility) we will see higher totals of precip in whatever type is falling on you! That could be interesting!

 

Visuals at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/8 Winter Weather Alert

Winter Weather Alert!

 

 

What? Winter Storm with mix and potential Ice Storm scenarios for regions.

 

When? Tonight into Friday

 

Where? Northern 1/3^rd of the area, specifically Northern Virginia and Maryland , North of Fredericksburg and 25 mile either side of I-95 to see a mix of Freezing rain, sleet, and snow. More Snow Possible Far Northwestern Virginia and West of central Frederick County Maryland.  Central regions, just east of the Mountains and south of  a Fredericksburg to a Charlottesville line down to Roanoke area may meet ice storm criteria due to cold air damming.

 

How Much?

Mixed areas: 1-2 inches of snow and then a slop eastern side (I-95 and east), 2-4” western side, were more sleet will be involved verses Freezing rain.  

Areas staying all snow should see a healthy 4-8” with potential 10”+ amounts in spots.

There are signs of potential thunderstorms which will enhance precip types in all areas, and may add to totals of snow as dynamics could offset warmer air aloft.

 

Comments: This storm is still a quick mover and will give areas a quick change from no precipitation to serious amounts very quickly. Some early runs this morning indicate the possibility of less mixing. This leads me to think we could see more snow just west of I-95.. still the same regions.. north of Fredericksburg, west of  I-95.

 

More to come:

 

 

 

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12/7 .. DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert!

Quick hitting snowstorm will commence in the region later tomorrow through noon Friday. Southern 1/3rd of the region should see a mix to sleet and freezing rain and then rain. Norther 2/3rds a General 3-6" but chances for 2 things.. A dry slotting during energy transfers and a chance for thundersnow or convective banding which could either lessen ior intensify snow amounts..

 

Much to watch.. Take this as aGuess! That is all it is!

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/5 Final Call Maps on 12/5 -12/6 system

This really Bucks the Models! Serious bust potential here!

This still looks pretty good, but start times!

Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am

Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am

Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am

Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain)  Starting 9am - noon

Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm

DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm

Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm

IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm

Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm

Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm

Few things on this:

1. Think Storm will be further west than models 

2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible

3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/4 First Call Maps.. First call amounts

Ok. This is my first call, likely final call after next Model runs.Giving some Locations and amounts!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting Early Afternoon
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 7-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 7-9am
Richmond: 3-6" Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting noon to 3pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 5-8pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm

Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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2nd Guess! Posted!

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/3 Winter Weather Alert! For TONIGHT's storm

Final Call map out at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Second storm looking like a classic I-95 Storm now!

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/3 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!

Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!

 

The trends of the models has been to shift heavier snow southward! Based on this, lighter Snows would be expected north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville areas. South of this down to Richmond and southwestward to Lynchburg could really be under the gun for a significant snow.  This is based on the models at this time. A new map will be issued later today or this evening. My thinking is that a pull to the north may occur.. but realistically, it could even shift further south!

 

Please Stay Tuned!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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