Here comes the warmer temperatures. How long will they last?

Summary:

As has been hinted at for days now, the pattern has changed in the United States. Maybe you are hearing the weather headlines of the floods and heavy mountain snows in California? Well, get used to the news story as it may become the pattern for the foreseeable future! What does this mean for us? Definitely warmer temperatures, chances of rain instead of wintry weather, and some stretches of extra ordinary warmth are possible! There are always possibilities of colder air sneaking southward from Canada due to Cold Air Damming and northeasterly winds off a colder ocean that will knock us to normal or slightly below, but this winter is starting to look very mild in the foreseeable future.

Forecast:

Today: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Warmer! Mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60

Continued Partly Sunny and very nice!

Friday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 55-65

Cloudier but temperatures are very warm!

Saturday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Possibly the warmest day of this warm spell!

Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers possible. Continued Mild.

Monday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers possible. Continued Mild.

Tuesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Partly to mostly cloudy with some showers possible. Continued Mild.

Long Term:

Continued mild conditions seem to be the rule. Next Wednesday/Thursday there could be a more significant rain threat and then a slight bit cooler conditions after it, but I do not foresee any arctic air at least though that following weekend. January really could end up well above normal in temperatures.

All for now!

** Mid Atlantic Weather, and its weather outlooks, are for hobbyists and weather enthusiasts and should NEVER be used to make life saving or property saving decisions. Mid Atlantic Weather offers opinions on the weather and issues ideas as to what the weather will be for the Mid Atlantic Region. This information should be used at the discretion of the readers, but never used for your authoritative forecasts! For official forecasts and warnings please consult official weather agencies.

12/27 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

That was a very close call for all, and Southeastern VA and Lower southern Maryland were slammed!! See link to storm information in Southeastern Virginia. Now our pattern shifts as we will get warmer, but the question is, how long will it last?

 

Summary:

What an amazing storm that was, but it was too far South and east for most to get snow.  Though we have had some brutally cold days, we have had some seriously mild days this winter, and we look headed back to warmer pattern for the next 8-12 days. How warm? I am seriously thinking 70s are not out of the question for parts of southern Virginia this coming weekend, but this time of year holds punches of cold off the ocean and other areas that tend to squash such warm outlooks! The reason for the warm up? Well, after the departing low that was the storm for southeastern VA (and Blizzard now for Parts of The Newfoundland and other areas) the Polar Vortex which USUALLY sets up over Canada will move over to Greenland, the West coast will have a huge trough break down its ridge, and the Southeast looks to have a big ridge in place! So here comes summer, in winter, which means not the heat wave, but the warmer pattern! There are variances in some models that do allow peaks of colder air to do some things that will make a risk for frozen precip, but right now, I would not hold out hopes (of course fro snow lovers). Now reading what I have today from long term model analysis we see a couple scenarios possible for January that have to be watched. First, if a Ridge type set up occurs in the west up into Alaska there is a possibility of extremely cold air breaking free and causing a stormy and cold month after January 10th..BUT..there are signs that the shifts we are seeing the next 10 days may actually establish themselves and give a strong Pacific Jet stream which would mean mild to warm Pacific air would set up shop over the US. Now, I take 0 credit for looking into this. DT of Wxrisk.com pointed it out today and I appreciated the information.  It will be something to watch, but if the warmer pattern verifies, my forecast of normal temps will need to say above normal temps and I will bust my winter forecast..WHICH, by the wayÂ… I have completely busted for Southeastern VA as now I can say they are going to have above normal snow this winter, because they already have!!!!

Link on this weekend storm: http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=79785&ran=173824

** Note: I apologize for the lack of posting this weekend, but being out of town limited me a lot! **

 

Forecast:

 

Today: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40

Remaining cold and windy early.

 

Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45

Partly Cloudy

 

Wednesday: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Warmer! Nice. Sunny

 

Thursday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60

Continued Partly Sunny and very nice!

 

Friday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60

Continued Partly Sunny and very nice!

 

Saturday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65

Possibly the warmest day of this warm spell!

 

Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Potential for showers. Some models want to drop some colder air in here from what is called a back door cold front. I will watch the models, but I am doubting it.

 

Long Term:

As noted in the summary, this pattern must be watched to see if it will keep itself established. After this wee of dry and nice weather, we could hit mild and rainy conditions for many days next week. Again, there are some scenarios that say we could have a temporary intrusion of colder air, but nothing truly arctic. That will have to wait until January 10^th timeframe, and that, as of today, may be in jeopardy based on the scenarios seen in some long-term model analysis.

  

 

All For Now 

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12/27 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

That was a very close call for all, and Southeastern VA and Lower southern Maryland were slammed!! See link to storm information in Southeastern Virginia. Now our pattern shifts as we will get warmer, but the question is, how long will it last? Summary: What an amazing storm that was, but it was too far South and east. Now, I am not blowing my horn, but I am telling you, the Winter forecast I posted talked about MORE precipitation chances in the Southern areas with normal temperatures.. But obviously, I had no idea it would be snow, so I busted bad on the snow forecast! Though we have had some brutally cold days, we have had some seriously mild days and we look headed back to warmer pattern for the next 8-12 days. How warm? I am seriously thinking 70s are not out of the question for parts of southern Virginia this coming weekend, but this time of year holds punches of cold off the ocean and other areas that tend to squash such warm outlooks! The reason for the warm up? Well, after the departing low that was the storm for southeastern VA (and Blizzard now for Parts of The Newfoundland and other areas) the Polar Vortex which USUALLY sets up over Canada will move over to Greenland, the West coast will have a huge trough break down its ridge, and the Southeast looks to have a big ridge in place! So here comes summer, in winter, which means not the heat wave, but the warmer pattern! There are variances in some models that do allow peaks of colder air to do some things that will make a risk for frozen precip, but right now, I would not hold out hopes (of course fro snow lovers). Now reading what I have today from long term model analysis we see a couple scenarios possible for January that have to be watched. First, if a Ridge type set up occurs in the west up into Alaska there is a possibility of extremely cold air breaking free and causing a stormy and cold month after January 10th..BUT..there are signs that the shifts we are seeing the next 10 days may actually establish themselves and give a strong Pacific Jet stream which would mean mild to warm Pacific air would set up shop over the US. Now, I take 0 credit for looking into this. DT of Wxrisk.com pointed it out today and I appreciated the information. It will be something to watch, but if the warmer pattern verifies, my forecast of normal temps will need to say above normal temps and I will bust my winter forecast..WHICH, by the way… I have completely busted for Southeastern VA as now I can say they are going to have above normal snow this winter, because they already have!!!! Link on this weekend storm: http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=79785&ran=173824 ** Note: I apologize for the lack of posting this weekend, but being out of town limited me a lot! ** Forecast: Today: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 30-40 Remaining cold and windy early. Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 35-45 Partly Cloudy Wednesday: SW: 54-64 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60 Warmer! Nice. Sunny Thursday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60 Continued Partly Sunny and very nice! Friday: SW: 57-67 SE: 58-68 N: 50-60 Continued Partly Sunny and very nice! Saturday: SW: 60-70 SE: 60-70 N: 55-65 Possibly the warmest day of this warm spell! Sunday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60 Potential for showers. Some models want to drop some colder air in here from what is called a back door cold front. I will watch the models, but I am doubting it. Long Term: As noted in the summary, this pattern must be watched to see if it will keep itself established. After this wee of dry and nice weather, we could hit mild and rainy conditions for many days next week. Again, there are some scenarios that say we could have a temporary intrusion of colder air, but nothing truly arctic. That will have to wait until January 10th timeframe, and that, as of today, may be in jeopardy based on the scenarios seen in some long-term model analysis. All for now!

12/26 VA Snow. Far Eastern MD

Right now southeastern VA is the bulls eye for heavier snow. The coast to about 25 miles inland will see a mix and areas east of Raliegh to Richmond to Dover will be in the most precip. Seeing 3-6 inches. CONCERNS of models missing several trends make me leary of writing this off for anyone from I-95 east! If I can I will post again! So stand guard DCA

 

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12/25 SURPRISE! Possible SNow Sunday!!!

I am sending this now as I am unlikely to get another chance. If the model trends say anything, we may very well have a snowstorm Sunday! Maybe even a bit sooner! Latest models continue a trend of intensifying a storm off the SE US coast and bringing it close enough now to warn eastern areas of possible snow! This trend could continue westward and has the potential to be significant, and affect a larger part of the area!! No definites at this time, but felt I should give everyone a heads up!

 

OH! MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!

 

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12/23 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

An active weather day with some severe weather possible. Heavy rains and wind the main story. Cold but snowless weekend and a turn to a milder pattern end chances of snow threats for a while.

 

Summary:

A strong cold front will cross the area today. Strong energy involved will cause some isolated thunderstorms. There is a lot of low level intability and if this were summer a great concern for tornadoes would exist, but concern today would mainly be isolated storms and some with strong winds. Mild highs today before the chill down for the weekend. As was noted in the last post, it seems abundantly clear that the +PNA pattern will break down for at least a week and above to even much above normal temperatures will become likely next week. I think the temperature forecast will be a bit of a challenge, and I may be too cool in my forecast, but we will see. Next slight chance of a cool down is around new years, and it will not be a sticking cold, but maybe a Cold Air Damming situation. But that will be watched. Appears a new pattern change could take a s long as January 10^th timeframe before a significant cool down would occur.  

 

Forecast:

 

Today: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 55-65 Windy with Rain, increasing and becoming heavy at times. Some thunder and isolated severe not out of the question.   Friday: SW: 40-50  SE: 40-50 N: 35 -45 Partly Cloudy. Snow showers possible early western facing Mountains.   Saturday: SW: 25-32 SE: 28-35 N: 20-30 Cold!   Saturday: SW: 30-40 SE: 35-45 N: 25-35 Continued cold,   Monday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 45-55 Some cloudiness, especially in the afternoon.   Tuesday: SW: 50-60 SE: 55-65 N: 45-55 Partly Cloudy   Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60 Partly cloudy.   Long Term: Like mentioned above, I see some possibilities of a Cold Air Damming situation next weekend, but that cold should be short lived and we will mild up again. Appears the bnext chance for a colder pattern will not arrive until around January 10th.

 

 

All for now!

 

 

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12/22 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Above normal temps today, with some increase in clouds. Tomorrow will be very windy and rainy, thunderstorms will be possible. Friday will be cooler and a pretty cold weekend to set up. Ever so slight chance that snow could be still in the picture this weekend, but almost all hopes are off if you wanted it. It appears a pattern change is in the offing again and warmer pattern will set up, but there are a few questions about it.

 

Summary:

What a warm up! Highs will be 50s and 60s today as clouds start to increase. The Midwest is getting a very big snow storm so if you have travel plans the next 24 hours or so, keep alert to the weather! As far as Thursday, strong winds and shear upper level conditions could produce some thunderstorms. If instability were really to increase, severe storms could fire, and they very well may for the Southeastern states. NO MODEL shows the storm along the Gulf coast coming further north, but there are some meteorological variables that are not clear yet to totally discount the system moving northward and causing some snow Sunday, but the odds are clearly against this happening, but it is one of those systems that you canÂ’t completely ignore, but probably should be! The weather pattern is likely to change as the PNA (Pacific North American) Ridge (known as the +PNA) on the west coast looks to collapse. This PNA ridge has been the only factor so far to drive colder air from Canada into the eastern part of the United States,  so, if it breaks down as forecast, we will likely see a warmer pattern set up. It will likely warm up next week as this feature will collapse, but the question is whether or not it is a transient breakdown and the +PNA could come back fairly quickly. Something to watch as temperature implications would be dramatic here. The reason for some of the uncertainty is the models sometimes over play the effects of Polar air which will drive down the plains and into Texas the next few days before spreading east over us for the weekend. Due to its drive, the models show snow/sleet/ice for the Gulf Coast states this weekend! That is dramatic! As I said, the odd weather forecasted give some doubt to the models, but they do seem to agree with each other. I will, of course, keep watching!

 

 

Today: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 48-58

Above Normal Temperatures! Increasing clouds. Rain developing overnight.

 

Thursday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 48-58

Rain! Some Thunder possible! Very Windy!

 

Friday: SW: 40-50  SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cloudy. Temps much colder.

 

Saturday: SW: 30-40  SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Cloudy. Cold.

 

Sunday: SW: 35-45  SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Cloudy.. (will watch for storminess, but not too excited right now.)

 

Monday: SW: 45-55  SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Partly to mostly sunny and warmer.

 

Long Term:

Seeing a warm up as the positive PNA pattern breaks down for a while. Could see temps climb well above normal next week before a cool down around the new year. I can say, recently it has been very tough forecasting long term!

  

All for now!

 

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12/21 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

Dramatic reversal of temperatures today! Temps will warm to normal or above! Now that shows a non-sticking pattern in the upper atmosphere, which should be the focus today. First off, the NAO that I ahd thought would really go negative this week, did not! That means the cold has no sticking power and thus we warm dramatically today, tomorrow and Thursday! Temps will be in the 50s and 60s in parts of the region Wednesday and Thursday. IF instability is strong enough, isolated thunderstorms during a frontal passage Thursday could be accompanied by thunder, and even Severe Storms! The hope for a Christmas snow is very slowly fading. Next week sees a potential warming trend, and maybe dramatic, as the Western United States Ridge collapses and causes our winds to go southerly.

 

Summary:

What a difference 24 hours makes! Strong southerly winds and warm air advection (warm air advancing in our direction) overspread the area this morning as temperatures rose before sunrise! Tempertures could serious go to above normal today after they were so far below yesterday! Wednesday will see temps rebound to the 50s and 60s for many areas and then Thursday rains with possible thunder as the upper atmosphere is very unstable. There could be severe weather if instability is able to fire, but, considering the time of the year (Winter began today!) instability will be very limited. Christmas weekend still looks chilly with highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday in the 30s and 40s. There are still slight hinting in models that a storm **COULD** come up the coast and provide parts of the region with snow.. every other run of the National Weather ServiceÂ’s favorite model (The GFS) has snow back in the area or close to us and then the next one does not! If this were to happen it would be more likely Sunday and not Saturday. Really, the pattern does not support a good chance of snow, but it does not mean I will not watch for changes! Right now, early next week we look to warm, maybe some rain Tuesday, and then the next shot of cooler/colder air would not arrive until 2005! We will see!

 

Today: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Mostly sunny and MUCH warmer!

 

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 48-58

Above Normal Temperatures!

 

Thursday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Rain! Some Thunder possible!

 

Friday: SW: 40-50  SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cloudy. Temps much colder.

 

Saturday: SW: 30-40  SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Cloudy. Cold.

 

Sunday: SW: 35-45  SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Cloudy. Temps much colder. (will watch for storminess, but not too excited right now.)

 

Long Term:

Seeing a warm up as the positive PNA pattern breaks down for a while. Could see temps climbe well above normal next week before a cool down around the new year. I can say, recently it has been very tough forecasting long term!

  

All for now!

 

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12/21 VA/MD/DC Weather Outlook

Dramatic reversal of temperatures today! Temps will warm to normal or above! Now that shows a non-sticking pattern in the upper atmosphere, which should be the focus today. First off, the NAO that I ahd thought would really go negative this week, did not! That means the cold has no sticking power and thus we warm dramatically today, tomorrow and Thursday! Temps will be in the 50s and 60s in parts of the region Wednesday and Thursday. IF instability is strong enough, isolated thunderstorms during a frontal passage Thursday could be accompanied by thunder, and even Severe Storms! The hope for a Christmas snow is very slowly fading. Next week sees a potential warming trend, and maybe dramatic, as the Western United States Ridge collapses and causes our winds to go southerly.

Summary:

What a difference 24 hours makes! Strong southerly winds and warm air advection (warm air advancing in our direction) overspread the area this morning as temperatures rose before sunrise! Tempertures could serious go to above normal today after they were so far below yesterday! Wednesday will see temps rebound to the 50s and 60s for many areas and then Thursday rains with possible thunder as the upper atmosphere is very unstable. There could be severe weather if instability is able to fire, but, considering the time of the year (Winter began today!) instability will be very limited. Christmas weekend still looks chilly with highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday in the 30s and 40s. There are still slight hinting in models that a storm **COULD** come up the coast and provide parts of the region with snow.. every other run of the National Weather Service’s favorite model (The GFS) has snow back in the area or close to us and then the next one does not! If this were to happen it would be more likely Sunday and not Saturday. Really, the pattern does not support a good chance of snow, but it does not mean I will not watch for changes! Right now, early next week we look to warm, maybe some rain Tuesday, and then the next shot of cooler/colder air would not arrive until 2005! We will see!

Today: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Mostly sunny and MUCH warmer!

Wednesday: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 48-58

Above Normal Temperatures!

Thursday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Rain! Some Thunder possible!

Friday: SW: 40-50 SE: 40-50 N: 35-45

Cloudy. Temps much colder.

Saturday: SW: 30-40 SE: 30-40 N: 25-35

Cloudy. Cold.

Sunday: SW: 35-45 SE: 35-45 N: 30-40

Cloudy. (will watch for storminess, but not too excited right now.)

Long Term:

Seeing a warm up as the positive PNA pattern breaks down for a while. Could see temps climbe well above normal next week before a cool down around the new year. I can say, recently it has been very tough forecasting long term!

All for now!

12/20 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

No one has any doubts about it. It is cold! As cold or colder than it gets most of the season for us! And tomorrow is really the first day of Winter on the shortest day of the year! Still interested in peopleÂ’s experiences yesterday as the snow came through. Thundersnows occurred, and some areas did see a few inches of snow, especially east of the I-95 Corridor, even down in NC where 3 inch amounts were reported!! One Day of frigid temps and then changes start occur. A few things this week are different than what was showing last week. First off, we have a very significant rainstorm that looks like it will hit us Thursday. Would not be surprised if many areas see as much as 2 inches of rain. Much cooler air will arrive Friday into Saturday, and then snow still looks to be a concern, especially Virginia, and especially the southeastern 2/3rds of Virginia (Could snow all the way down to SC/NC and be very heavy!!) Snow could occur area wide, but the northern and western extent will be hard to come by due to a very frigid and dry airmass to the north. Many details between now and then, so do not get over concerned.

 

Summary:

A very arctic shot was pulled in by the storm yesterday. It is a short lived cold pool as temps begin to rebound quickly in a very progressive pattern. Progressive is a key in this week! Temps will moderate to normal levels tomorrow, above normal Wednesday and Thursday, and normal to just below for the weekend. A front will be moving towards us and stall along the spine of the Appalachians at which time a strong Gulf of Mexico low will ride up the front and bring very warm air and a lot of rain to the area! Some upslope mountain areas could easily see greater than 2 inches of rain. Once the front crosses the area, there is a growing threat that another storm will form along it over the Gulf of Mexico and ride up the Southeastern US coastline. With the colder air arriving, it is very possible this could be a significant, Christmas Day, Snow for areas especially east of I-95 from about Fredericksburg all the way down to South Carolina! YES.. South Carolina! But, there are many details between now and then that need to be considered!

 

Today: SW: 20-25 SE: 20-25 N: 18-24

Very cold and windy! Wind chills sub zero mountains, single digits to teens east of the mountains

 

Tuesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 40-50

Increasing clouds and much warmer! Seasonal temperatures expected!

 

Wednesday: SW: 45-55 SE: 45-55 N: 45-55

Cloudy skies. Rain now looks to hold off until Thursday! Above Normal Temperatures!

 

Thursday: SW: 50-60 SE: 50-60 N: 45-55

Rain! Some Thunder possible, and rain could be heavy at times!

 

Friday: SW: 40-50  SE: 40-50 N: 35 -45

Cloudy. Snow showers possible in the North. Temps much colder.

 

Long Term:

Christmas weekend looks very cold and there is a possibility of a significant snow storm, as mentioned above, especially Southern/Southeastern VA! Many details need to be worked out!

  

All for now!

 

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