Advisories are posted - Nuisance snow/sleet/ice and then rain.

We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.

All for now.. map possible late.

I will update late morning or early afternoon

Light snow event for Maryland and Northern Virginia looks possible - some rain and sleet - pockets of freezing rain - Tough forecast! More to come!

Wintry threat is real - but looks light at best - Cold following - storm threats return next week

First off.. BRRRRR It is cold and windy. Tonight we will see some serious cold in the mountains with Wind Chill Advisories possible. Wind Advisories are up for many until this evening, and are well needed.

Concerning the upcoming winter weather threat:

I am sure of a few things:
1. The Southeastern Third of VA will mainly see rain from the upcoming event
2. Rain will be mixed in with snow and sleet and maybe pockets of freezing rain for most the middle third with transitions to rain and then maybe back to snow at the end.
3. It is the Northwestern third of VA and Western 2/3rds of Maryland that leave me scratching my head! I am now thinking we *COULD* see some accumulating snows.. maybe a couple of inches. The further north you are, the more the possibilities. At a maximum I could see some places at 1 to 3 inches of snow and that would especially be true of upper Maryland. It is highly dependent on how explosive the storm is off the North Carolina coast. If it explodes sooner than thought, we could see a more widespread event.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 2 to 4 inches. North of this should see a lot more.

After this storm bombs in the Northeast it could be a factor in setting up a better winter storm pattern early next week.

After the event it also looks to be COLD. Also, January as a whole looks like it is going to be very cold from what I can see at this point.

Things could change and if they do I will update.

All for now.

Snow threat light at this point

There will be a storm later this week, but it now looks light at best.
This would be Thursday. It also is likely that many will see some snow
transition to a cold rain. It is possible that this could change back
over to a bit of Snow thursday night. There remains some uncertainty
about all of this so stay tuned.

Today through Wednesday will be breezy and very cold! Temps will be in
the 30 to 40 degree range for highs and winds could cause wind chill
advisories. Temps will continue cold Thursday, but just warm enough so
that rain will become a part of that forecast.

After Friday even colder air may pay a visit.

--
Sent from my mobile device

What about the snow?

Snow chances are there late in the week, but it is a mess figuring out
what Low will produce the snow! I also expect that big cities will mix
or be a lot of rain. Colder air is looming. More late tonight!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Rain winding down - Some snow showers Sunday Night - cold week - Winter Storm possible

Merry Christmas! I decided not to post the last few days, and I am sorry to all that read regularly! We had a forecast close to what I originally had forecasted, but some areas did not see any frozen precip like I thought. Rains ended up somewhat lighter for some, but here in Loudoun I am seeing a flood warning this morning. A lot of the snow has melted and the piles are all that is leftover. Today will see rains end in the north and cloudy skies slowly clear. Tonight's lows will be the 20s and 30s for most. Highs tomorrow will be relatively mild with the 40s and 50s! Tomorrow night the upper support that caused the Christmas Blizzard in the middle of the country will move through and a few snow showers could occur in the Northern part of Virginia and Maryland. This week will be pretty cold. The next event will be interesting and will bring a snow chance especially west if I-95 for Northern Virginia and definitely snow in the Mountains. This one is not clear cut! There are several things. First the cold air will be more marginal which will be an issue along I-95 at first, but colder air will work in and send the temps cold enough for snow to start advancing eastward. The track of the low will make it a bit tough as well. Because the upper levels will not be as cold, the ratios for the snow to liquid will not be as high as last storm. Then, what system will end up being the one that consolidates and moves up the coast. It could be New Year's eve, but it could be a few days later! I think this will come into focus over the next few days.

Details will be worked out the next few days.

All for now!

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A little more complicated Thursday into Friday - Flooding rains possible - Cold continues - Warm or Cold after New Years

Weather is hard to pin down for Friday. As of now I am certain some freezing rain and sleet will occur in the valleys and most places that have snow pack may see some sleet at the onset of the pecip. The warm air should overwhelm the colder air and turn the sleet and freezing rain to rain for most places except the Blue Ridge valleys. This will need some monitoring as there may be some slippery roads. Interestingly enough, as cold air filters in at the end of the storm, a turn to snow may occur across the northern areas Saturday! The only accumulations would be the mountains.

I have been repeating the same thing over and over and I cannot stress it enough... clear out paths away from your house so that the melting snow and now rain can drain away from your house. If you have not done this, resolve to do it today. People in town home communities should make sure that the drains are free so that the rain can drain and will not cause pools of water that could flood!

What does the future hold? I am now not so sure of the Arctic outbreak I was before. There are some other signs of a relaxing of the pattern and maybe some warming the first week or two of January! So what will it be? I am not as clear as I was and will have more thoughts in the next several days.

To see a cool Picture of the recent Blizzard from space check out http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/12/east-coast-blizzard-from-space?npu=1&mbid=yhp

So to sum up - Valleys and northern regions should see a glaze of some ice Friday - likely a winter weather advisory criteria, but I would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches posted first Thursday Morning for Friday in Areas along the Immediate Piedmont and mountains of areas from Roanoke to the Pennsylvania/Maryland Border! I am a little more worried about flooding at this point than freezing rain and sleet, but that could change some.

All for now!

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Update on Thursday and Friday - Week overall looks cold and sunny - Serious cold could be on the horizon!

Temps will be mid 30s to mid 40s for most of the week until Friday. It looks like the cold air damming will be strong enough for a period of sleet and freezing rain Thursday Night into Friday morning. Rains on Friday may be pretty heavy. As I stated after the storm you really do need to make sure that water can drain away from the house. With Friday being Christmas the last thing you want to be doing is going outside and clearing snow from the drains!

As for the future, a very, very, very cold arctic outbreak could be on the doorstep around the new year. This could be preceded by another significant winter storm!

All for now!

Just posting Accuweather's storm total map.

BLIZZARD OF 2009

i got 20.5 inches here in dundalk md, BWI got 21.1 inches what a whopper of a storm. now we have a different type of storm for xmas eve and day. im thinking snow to start, then a mix to rain. but 6 days away and anything can happen

Storm winding down! What a whopper! What is up next?

I am somewhere around 22 to 25 inches here in Sterling. Light snow will end in the next few hours. Travel is terrible! The snow is so deep and uniform that it is had to distinguish the road from the median. My friend does plowing and he reports flipped cars all over the place. PLEASE BE SAFE.

Cold weather will stick through the week. Slight warming by Thursday and Friday.

People have been wondering about the potential storm late this coming week. As of now I see it being a mix of snow, sleet and rain at first and then rain. I now think Christmas may be a foggy for us as the snow keeps the ground cold but warm air comes up over top and rains on our snow! A white Christmas, but rain on top. This COULD change and I will let you know.

As for the longer range, there are indications the pattern should be favorable for another winter storm before the New Year. Though it may be significant, with the storm we just had many had their entire season average of snow and then some! And by the way, it is still fall! Meteorological winter did begin on December 1st!

Back to the current situation:
1. Be careful shoveling
2. Check on neighbors and elderly.
3. Tomorrow take a shovel and make paths away from your house to let the melting snow run off away from the house.
4. I recommend pulling snow away from doors and windows, and again, get paths for the rain to go away from these

All for now!

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Blizzard warnings expanded westward to immediate DC metro and Baltimore areas

Maybe I was a little robust on the 20 to 30 inches.. many will see the 12 to 20 which is closer to what I posted on my site last night!

Snow is heavy in areas of Northern Virginia this morning! Snow has accumulated around 10 inches here in Sterling. Many reporting the same.

Awesome sight!

Snow will slacken a lot southern half of state. As the low off the coast continues to wrap up the winds will start to be an issue. Snows will continue north part of VA, MD, DC, and up to New England.

Not to look to far beyond the current situation, but another snow could occur for CHRISTMAS day as well.

If you are a weather nut like me, this is FUN!

Snow is doing better than thought! WIDESPREAD 20 to 30 Inches!

Well, here we go with a HUGE storm.Many areas will be measuring in feet! Of note, Blizzard warnings posted east of DC. I will not be surprised to see more Blizzard warnings by morning!

Holiday Blizzard of 2009!

All for now!

Final Call - THIS WILL BE HISTORIC

My map is not great! Many will see 10 to as much as 20 inches in the red. Pink will see many 8 to 12 inches. Then we have mixing in eastern sections will mix with rain and sleet. West will see a cut off due to dry air! The red areas could see thunder snow. As the storm gets cranking north of Virginia and the DelMarVA a blizzard could occur!

SNOW totals I predicted may be half the total!

Add 6 to 10 inches below! WOW!

--
Sent from my mobile device

First Guess on this storm. (I am cutting totals some - models do show a lot more than this!) First Guess: Virginia Roanoke: 10 - 12" Charlottesville : 12 - 14" Fredericksburg: 12 - 14" some 18" Dulles - 6 - 10" Washington DC - 8 to 12" Richmond: 6 - 10" Maryland: Baltimore: 8 - 12" Montgomery County - 6-10" North Carolina: Asheville: 8 - 12" Boone: 10 - 12"

Major/Historic Winter Storm! TIME CORRECTION!

Major/Historic Winter Storm!

CORRECTION ON TIME! This will be Friday into Saturday!

With the Model trends and the increased consensus on a major winter storm, I have the Second alert of the season! This could be Historic with amounts approaching 20 inches in parts of Virginia and Maryland!

Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!

A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.

Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.

A lot to look at and watch!

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If anyone needs a person to do snow plowing in Northern Virginia (Sterling to Leesburg area) let me know!

Major/Historic Winter Storm!

With the Model trends and the increased consensus on a major winter storm, I have the Second alert of the season! This could be Historic with amounts approaching 20 inches in parts of Virginia and Maryland! This will be starting Saturday Night and go through Sunday.

Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!

A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.

Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.

A lot to look at and watch!

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If anyone needs a person to do snow plowing in Northern Virginia (Sterling to Leesburg area) let me know!

 

Winter storm seems likely

A Winter storm is likely to affect the mid atlantic Saturday and
Sunday. It is possible some totals could approach a foot or more for
some places. This is a preliminary outlook and I will have more
analysis later tonight and tomorrow!

--
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OFF TOPIC! My Company is Hiring!

Not trying to get off subject! We do have much to talk about as more and more we appear lining up for a storm this coming weekend! I do know the state of the economy and we do have many positions open at my company (Plateau Systems) here in Arlington, VA. If interested, let me know! There is a Contact Me in teh left column, leave a comment, do what you can.

http://www.plateau.com/about/careers.htm

Thanks!

I will post later about the wintry weather!

Jimmy

Breezy and cold - a southern Snow!

Today will be cold and breezy temps will likely make it to the upper
30s North and upper 40s south. Cold conditions continue tomorrow bit
breezes lessen. Then we have a southern low to consider late Saturday
into Sunday. As of now I am suspecting the southeastern third of VA
and much of NC as well as far western SC COULD see a major or even
Historic snow storm this Saturday Eastern VA could also be brushed by
some light snow. Northern VA and MD are unlikely to see the storm the
way it looks now. If the Southern Low happens to form a bit more north
or a phasing of systems occurs (possible) more of the region needs to
be ready for significant snow. A lot to watch at this point. After
the system we stay cold and a white Christmas may occur for some!

--
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Mild one more day - Much colder rest of week - weekend snow?

This will be the last mild day of the week and maybe for a while. Highs will be in the 50 to 60 degree range. A few showers over the mountains will turn to some snow showers out that way. Then we have Arctic air the rest of the week with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s at best. There are some forecast models bringing a southern storm into the region this weekend and providing a significant winter storm. My gut would be to believe them after what has been a non-stop parade of southern storms during the weekends for the last several weeks, but I need a little more convincing before I am sold. Even colder air looks to arrive Monday and indications that maybe we could have more winter weather some time next week! That may mean some will see a white Christmas.

All I have for now!

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Fog and freezing fog. Mild today and tomorrow-more chill after that

Be careful this morning. Fog is freezing and that is causing black
ice. Today will be mild with temps upper 40s to upper 50s. Tomorrow
will be even milder with highs 50 to 60. A strong cold front will come
through with breezy and colder temps returning by Wednesday. As
mentioned last night, an Alberta clipper *MAY* visit and cause some
light snow Friday night. Otherwise a much drier pattern has taken
shape, on forecast models at least, at this time. All for now!

--
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FOG HORNS NEEDED! Cool to cold.. SNOW Where are you?

So, we had some ice this morning in areas. Heavy rains fell again and it has been so wet this fall! With the cold rainy ground and the temps dropping to the dew point fog is a plenty! I was just driving in it and it was tough to see! The rains are gone for a day! A strong cold front will come through Tuesday and drop temps back to 5 to 10 degrees below normal. There is a possible Alberta Clipper Friday into Saturday and cause a small amount of snow in the region. That is not for certain. The colder conditions and the pattern in general does show the possibilities of a bigger storm at some point. That being said, it is not ideal and so forecast models continue to switch on their forecasts from run to run.

I have nothing new to share for now!

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Just a reminder on where you can Find Mid Atlantic Weather!

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Brrr. Surprising warming so we get Mix to Rain Sunday - Rain and then cold again next week

The evolution of this pattern has been difficult to get correct. We have an arctic high over us now that is actually modified from its coldest time. It is headed straight though town though and a "warming" in the atmosphere will make moisture falling Sunday change from a mix of snow, then sleet, and rain (light) to s steadier rain all day Sunday. Temps in the 40s Monday and Tuesday when more rain arrives ahead of another arctic shot that will be similar to this one. So temps back down into the 30s.

Though potential showed for maybe a snow next week, this has really backed off. That being said, we have not had too many days between rain/snow events since fall so things may change.

Have to run! Stay warm!

Colder air coming - Will it last? Snow/Mix possible this weekend - Long term!

The cold air is about to come through and it will feel wintry tomorrow and Friday. What will transpire this weekend is a bit up in the air. I am not convinced we will see much of anything, but one model is still showing snow and a mix for the region. I will continue to watch.

Next week I am in a quandary. There are signs that maybe a big storm *COULD* happen and cause winter weather for the region. The latest models have backed off on this idea.

For now, cold and windy tomorrow and continued cold through Saturday.

Some wintry weather - More for Mountains - Heavy rains - weekend more snow

There are winter storm watches up for parts of the area. If you look at HPC's outline for where a quarter inch or more of ice may form you get an idea of where I too think things will be bad. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif . There are a few things that make me a bit "worried" about more icing. The main threat would be a coastal low which MAY keep colder air around longer in this event. I will say though, when we get such heavy rains (I see 1 to 2 inches and even more in spots) then the colder surface is overwhelmed by the warmer rains. This is not always true, but does tend to be the case. Rain will end tomorrow and that will be the last Mild day for a while. The Arctic express is coming and temps will fall to very cold conditions Thursday straight through Monday and beyond. highs will be the 30s to low 40s most places during this time. Winds will be fairly strong Thursday as well which will make it blustery. A southern storm system could make its presence known this weekend and cause snow and a mix of precipitation for many due to the colder air. I do NOT expect this to be a big event. Due to some warming during the storm, snow will mix and change to rain areas south and east of the Fall Line.. Areas west of the I-95 corridor will see snow and then rain and snow mix.. better chances of just snow to the north, but also lighter amounts of precip.

So for today. Areas of the Shenandoah will see snow and sleet change to freezing rain and could accumulate to Winter Storm Warning criteria north of Harrisonburg area up to the PA/MD border. The immediate Piedmont will likely see Winter Weather Advisories posted, but I am not suspecting a lot and especially less east of Rt 15. I also expect many to see sleet and rain mixed at onset and then a turnover to just rain. Rain will be heavy at times tonight.

All for now!

Cold conditions coming! Some mix and then more snow?

Cloudy skies will be common until Wednesday. Temps will continue
colder than normal with highs 40 north and around 50 south. Tomorrow
will be cooler and rain will over spread the region throughout the
day. In the immediate piedmont and mountains sleet and freezing rain
will be a threat and advisories will likely be needed. Some sleet and
freezing rain will occur up to I-95 tomorrow evening for the north
half of VA and Western MD, but heavy precipitation should not allow
for much of an issue as the upper atmosphere's warmer air warms the
rain and the surface. Temps Wednesday will be mild with 50 to 60
degrees across the region. Much colder air to follow with high 40 to
50 Thursday and 30 to 40 Friday and Saturday. A southern Storm could
bring snow for many Friday Night into Saturday!

All for now!

--
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LAST CALL December 5th

Snow amounts have increased

Just west of 95

Immediate piedmont now looks like 4 to 6 inches. 2 to 4 east of this.
1 to 3 inches. Warnings have been hoisted in areas!

December 5th's snow fame continues!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Potential for a real winter storm now for tomorrow!

Latest models have come in with a more serious threat of snow! Especially west of I-95! I suspect Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will be posted soon!


All for now!

snowfall forecast

this is my snowfall forecast for the upcoming snow event on saturday.

im thinking 2-4 inches along the I95 corridor from virginia up to philly,aybe even NYC if low hugs coast. some spots locally 5 inches, less along the coast due to mixing, and less farthur west . ill up date after the runs today. but this is how i see it now.

*** LUKE***

First Guess for Saturday!

Snow map late tonight

I will do what I can to get it out by 11

--
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Models trend snowier - If models are correct

If models continue we will see a more significant snow threat with some areas seeing 2 to as much as 6 inches, especially on the grass, Saturday afternoon and into the night. This will need further watching and I will update as often as I can. I suspect many will start as rain and rain/snow mix, and then snow. Best chance of accumulations still west of I-95 and the Higher elevations of Southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina!

All for now!

Jimmy

FIRST significant snows of the season if models are right!

Thinking many areas in Virginia could see 2 to maybe 4 inches of snow.
Some to see as much as 6 inches in higher elevations of Southwest VA.
More to come!

--
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Tornado watches in SE VA - Flood watched North VA and MD

I have been busy and needed to post sooner! Severe weather has broken out in areas. As the storm gets energized cells are rotating and have produced tornadoes today. See http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?forecast=spcstormreportmap&date=today&usemap=eastcentral_640x480 for some reports.

Also heavy rains and winds are moving through. Flash flood watches were posted for Northern Virginia and Maryland.

Please listen to news and radio outlets for updates, watches, or warnings!

All for now!

Snow threat SW VA down into Western NC - Light snow possible elsewhere

first we have a potent systems coming through the region the next 24 hours. rain and Thunder which is causing severe weather to break out in the south. Rain totals in the 1 to 2 inch range seem likely and in a relatively short amount of time. Winds will also be high in the higher elevations and could be pulled down by heavier showers or storms - so do not be surprised to see some isolated severe storms scattered through NC and VA overnight.

We have a definite shot of colder air that will arrive Friday into Saturday and a wave of energy that will produce a Low pressure to the south. Areas south of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville look the best for getting precipitation and it could mix with or change to snow, especially west of I-95 and then back South west into the higher Piedmont areas of NC, SC and even GA. Yes a more southern system appears to be in the making. Areas along and east of I-5 in these regions could see a mix or even some periods of snow, but it is warm at the surface so this will be what I call "white rain" for many. Areas west of I-95 and further south could see some accumulations and i would not be surprised to see a 1 to 3" with isolated 4" spots from Southwestern VA down into Western NC and SC.

Further north, rain and snow showers will likely visit Saturday but it does not look too potent.. the further north, the less the chance to see anything.

STILL early on this so stay tuned!

All for now!

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UPCOMING STORM POSSIBILITYS

well first off we have a possible " storm" on the dec 5th-6th time frame. the euro , cmc, want to take it out to sea, the GFS brings at a little more west, the nam out to 84 hrs keepos it closer to coast, so with the way the models are all over the play, have to wait a day or two. then there is another possibility on dec 9th-12 time frame. thats 7+ days out so we will look at that in a few days as it gets closer. over 7 days out the models will be all over the place till we get closer. thanks more to come :)

*** LUKE***

Snow shot? Looks possible!

Seeing possibilities still coming together! Could see a few inches in some parts. I am not expecting a big system at this time. There are a few things that are peaking my interest. Some SE bias on the current model may mean more moisture.

What do I expect. Some snow! YES.. Some snow areas west of  I-95 from about Richmond up to the DC and Baltimore area. Some rain to tart and a mix and turnover for many areas even along I-95. Areas that are mainly snow could see some accumulation on grassy areas.

A lot of details to be worked out. If things get more moist I am going to need to get a little more excited! I am just happy to see a snow chance on the December 5th date! It has snowed on that date a lot in the last 7 years!
 
All for now!

Snow risk update

There are definite trends towards showers this Saturday. If you
noticed, most forecasts have a risk now that did not even late last
evening. How much? Well I suspect we will see just a light mix of rain
and snow west of I-95 especially saturday evening. Could it be bigger?
Some models say yes. Could it be nothing? Yes. Many models say that
too! More to come including a late evening real post for a change!

--
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First snow threat of the season?!

Some snow *COULD* mske it up this way this coming Friday Night... More to come!

--
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lukes winter 2009-2010 forecast!!

i think, the mid atlantic will have colder than normal temps and above normal precip, whether that means above normal snows depends largely on the track. i think with the light to mod elnino, we will have an active storm track to the south. with the way the pdo and soi are, and with the elnino rising slightly then expected to fall off after december, that could mean a colder winter then weve seen . and if we get the souther track going and more noreasters, we could get 150 to 200% of normal snowfall. but alot has to happen, but the potentail is there, some analogs used by j bastardi, for the up coming winter are a like ness to 63-64, 77-78, and 2002-2003. so i guess we have to wait an see. but i do think we will have at least our normal snowfall, maybe more. and a colder than normall winter. alot depends of track.

***luke***

Historic Nor'easter

This is no small system! Storm warnings, High Wind warning, Flood watches and Warnings, and, yes, high elevation snows!

Parts of Eastern NC have already hit 8 to 10 inches of rain, and now I am thinking areas could see 15"+ amounts.

Winds will really start to crank up overnight into tomorrow. Flooding rains will be along and east of I -95 for the most part, although some rains have been in the 3 to 5 inch amounts in Southern Virginia.

Coastal flooding will be moderate to severe!

A state of Emergency has been declared for Virginia.

All in all, please listen to news and weather outlets for watches and warnings!

You can post Observations here:
http://forum.midatlanticweather.com/index.php?topic=1654.0

Stay safe!

Jimmy

Very Heavy rainfall and windy conditions!

I hinted at this Sunday, but have been tied up and unable to update!

As the remnants of Ida and other pieces of energy all combine, a very powerful Nor'easter will slowly develop, deepen, and move slowly off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will mean prolonged rains, especially Southeastern and Eastern Virginia, North Carlina (more east than west), South Carolina, and Georgia. For 3 to 5 inches of rain will be common with areas receiving as much as 9 to 10 inches of rain totals along the coastal plains and along the shore. High winds will cause higher than normal tides with coastal floods and also beach erosion and rough seas. People should stay tuned to news and radio outlets for a full run down of weather issues and do not ever attempt to ride through water! This is a serious situation! Please be careful!

The Further North you are the less rainfall. Also Areas along and west of the Mountains will not see as much rains. The Piedmont and east will see the rains, and the closer to the coast you are, the heavier it will be.

All for now!

Nice weather Today and tomorrow! Warmish - BIG RAIN THREAT

I haven't got a lot of time. Please enjoy today and tomorrow as temps soar to the upper 60s and even upper 70s for some.

 

A lot more concern rising on a Ida's influence on a Nor'easter type system including very heavy rains!

 

All for now!

 

Jimmy's Winter 2009 - 2010 Outlook!

Let me tell you how I look at the forecast.

First, patterns up until now.

We have seen a lot of systems along the Eastern US this year. We have been wet and fairly cool this fall. This would be a favorable sign for a more snowy forecast, but I do not expect an extremely snowy forecast like AccuWeather (http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?partner=&traveler=0&date=2009-10-14_1255&month=10&year=2009). Several others are on board with more snow possibilities!  Raleigh weather (AKA Allan Huffman) http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m10d30-Winter-forecast-200910-Part-1, Larry Cosgrove from WeatherAmerica, and the Capital Weather Gang ( http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/11/capital_weather_gang_2009-10_w.html )

We have some other thoughts as well. I know 2 pro-forecasters calling for warmer than normal and a normal forecast preliminarily by Dave Tgoleris at WxRisk - http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/winter0910/PUBLIC.htm

So what am I really thinking -

El Nino - what will you do! The warm body of water in the Pacific is the wildest card of the season. I am more and more convinced that feature will stomp my hopes of a snowy winter for the region!

Things I like for Snow -
1. Pattern has been showing good storms from Southern origins
2. Colder air has been locked in place a few times from some blocking patterns - the blocks of North American Oscillations and the Pacific North American areas have been favorable.
3. Snow cover is steadily advancing and the best I have seen this early in several years - http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
4. Some Sea Surface Temps off the Atlantic Northeast.

Things I am thinking counter high snow
1. El Nino
2. A lot of soil moisture (WxRisk covers this in his forecast)
3. Despite southern storms, I have seen quite a few main lows head west of mountains, which means warmer aloft and ice or rain.

So For Now -

I call for a little above normal snow and normal to slightly above normal temperatures - I am banking on a few larger snow storms in cold spells for above normal snow
Would not be surprised to see a warmer than normal end of winter if El Nino continues to strengthen
Would also expect big swings in temps so snow will not be on the ground a long time this winter.

That is my thinking - I am not a Meteorologist so this is just based on what I see, have read, and El Nino being a factor!

All for now!

Breezy Night - Cool Friday - Sunny Weekend -

Breezes are kicking up thanks to a Low off of Nova Scotia that is really starting to deepen. With breezes not much of a chance for frost as has been the case for many recently.

A cool Friday with highs not cracking the 40s for most areas in the north and mountains. Cool night for Friday night. After a few weekends of rainy weather, we look like sunny skies and seasonable cool temps!

A nice day Monday with highs in the mid and upper 60s with some 70s likely. A cold front will cross regions and bring highs back down to 50s and low 60s the rest of the week. Looks fairly dry for now!

So what is my winter forecast?

Separate post to follow!

All for now!
 

Cool - breezy - few showers - pretty dry

Today will be cool and an increase in clouds and breezes. As a
disturbance moves though some sprinkles will be possible. This will be
especially true for northern areas of VA, in MD and PA. Winds will
also increase.
Cool 40s tomorrow north and mid 50s south.

A dry sunny weekend looks to be in the works. Warmer conditions Monday
and then seasonal until mid next week.

Tropics spun up Hurricane Ida which is bearing down on Nicaragua this morning.

All for now.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Sunny today, rain tomorrow and Wednesday

Today will feature sunny skies for most, although some high clouds
will be present along the southeast VA and East NC regions. In NC
along the coastal areas rain is also likely today. Highs will be in
the mid 60s.

Rain will gradually push up the coast and spread inland. Another storm
system will also push into the region so that a better chance of rain
will also push in by late tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be mid and
upper 50s with some low 60s.

Rainy skies to continue Wednesday with highs in the mid and upper 50s
to around 60.

Thursday will be a nicer day with sun returning and temps back in the
60s to around 70. Friday will still be sunny with highs upper 60s to
even mid 70s.

Halloween looks a bit tricky with a front that could spoil some
treats! A front will be passing through but highs will be in the 60s
to lowe 70s. More details as we get closer!

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Starting the week of Sunny - Rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday - Sunny day - more Saturday

This will be a fairly typical and nice fall week. Yes, Tuesday into Wednesday presents the chance of rain, but that is normal!
Temps in the 60s and even pushing 70 to 75 Thursday and Friday. Saturday could see a return to showers.

Of note, there are are some model connections showing a very rainy set up for next weekend. I am hoping this is not the case!

The Forum has grown but no one is posting! I am working on coordinating all the winter outlooks. I will work on posting mine next weekend!

The Tropics have become very quiet.

All for now!

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Warm, windy, and Storms - Sunny Sunday

Today will feature strong southerly winds with scattered showers and storms. Temps will be in the upper 70s t vn the 80 degree mark in a few places. Showers and strong storms could come through this afternoon accompanied mainly with a lot of wind. These will clear overnight and be a nice sunny day tomorrow!

Temps in the 60ds with Sunny skies will continue through Tuesday when more showers may visit.

All for now.

Jimmy

Much warmer! Warmth into the weekend! Rain for Friday into Saturday!

What a difference a week makes! It was so cold last week and now it is warm! We will see warmer air continue into Thursday. Highs in areas will be in the low to mid 80s. Friday a front will be coming through Friday. Moisture will be present on Saturday and cause more rain. Temps will be generally in the 60s and 70s. The idea now is that Sunday will be dry with temps remaining in the 60s. More clouds and possible rain on Monday.

Winter Outlook will be posted next weekend!

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Cold night - Sun returns! Warmer weather! Then more rain by weekend =(

There were some rain and snow mix reports around this morning in Maryland and the mountains, but precipitation quickly subsided and the day slowly saw some clearing. With clear skies and colder temps, Freeze and Frost warnings are now posted for many.

Sunny skies with highs in the 50s and low and mid 60s Monday, Mid 60s and 70s Tuesday, upper 60s to upper 70s Wednesdy and Thursday. A cold front approaches Friday and that should bring rains.

Of interest, super Hurricane Rick in the eastern Pacific had winds to 180 MPH last night! Pretty awesome! Not s great for the Baja of California which will see a visit from him the next several days. He will have a weakening trend with him. His moisture could aid more rains for us in the longer term!

All for now!

Rain continues for Most areas east of Mountains -less west - cool and cold SNOW?

As a coastal low forms today continued disturbances will cause rain to fall. Heaviest rains will be east of the mountains and more northern VA and MD than Southern VA and NC. As the coastal low finally gets going colder air will try and wrap into the system and higher elevations could see some snow. Amounts will be light with maybe 1 to 1.5 inches. As lower dewpoints and cooler air wraps in a quick little mix of snow could make it to the DC and BWI suburbs tomorrow morning. The cool wet weather will slowly exit tomorrow. Finally some sun and cool conditions return Monday with highs 50s and low 60s.

This has been a very wild weather event. Very cold with record cold maximum temperatures in many areas! Sleet reported at the onset in northern VA as well as snow in the mountains.

We will see a much drier week until at least Thursday into Friday when a front will cross the area. Temps will generally be the in the 60s and low 70s with lows 30s early in the week rising to 40s later in the week in the north and 40s and 50s in the south.

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Rain increasing again - will it snow?!

Snow will mainly be a possibility above 1500 feet and mainly when it
gets dark. That being said, as the coastal low wraps up a bit tomorrow
night, colder air could start filtering east of the mountains. Many
areas west of the DC and BWI area MAY see some snow flakes saturday
night into Sunday. Saturday night may also feature all snow for the
mountains with 1 to naybe 3 inches.

That is my thinking now. More in the morning!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Cool to cold for many - Rain a plenty - some snow!

Again, this winter like pattern is going to be interesting and bring some mountain snows above 2000 feet as well as even a rain/snow mixed close to the DC Metro suburbs.

Storm Highlights:

Cold Air Damming:
We have a cold air damming situation which is making the Piedmont very cool (40s) while the coastal plains today could see highs near 60 in SE Va and NC

Snow threats:
The Nor'easter that is forming off the Carolina coast will wrap some colder air in it over time and so higher elevations of Virginia (will say north of Harrisonburg) will see a chance of rain and snow tonight and tomorrow night.

Another system appears to get its act together Saturday and this could have even colder air which cold mean snow may accumulate higher elevations and some accumulations could occur. This should be monitored
As colder air gets more entrained into the system, snow and rain mixed could start to spread eastward and even affect the Piedmont areas up to areas west of I-95 from Fredericksburg northward to the DC and Baltimore suburbs Saturday Night.

Copious rain:
Rain from these storm systems could drop 1 to 3 inches of rain with highest amounts along the coastal plains.

Winds:
Winds along the coast will be at gale force and even Storm force so Coastal storm warnings and gale warnings are posted. Areas from the Delmarva and north could see coastal flooding as well. All areas should see winds increase as the coastal storm gets wrapped up.

Pennsylvania and Northwards have many Winter storm watches and warnings are now flying due to heavy wet snows. This is especially true of areas above 1500 to 2000 feet. With trees having many leaves left on them this could be a serious situation.Forecasts are calling for 4 to as much as 12 inches in higher elevations and mainly on trees.

Longer term:
60s and 70s will make a come back next week with sunnier skies.

This will be a wild weather event the next 60 hours!

All for now!

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Almost like Winter next several days

The first cold Nor'easter will come up the coast the next few days and cause a damp raw forecast to take shape! Areas could see HIGHS in the upper 30s, especially higher elevations and immediate Piedmont! Due to the colder air and the configuration areas above 1000 feet could see SNOW! Yes SNOW! Likely it would be too wet and too warm for much to stick, but it will be interesting nonetheless!

So today will be a thickening clouds day with temps barely into the lower 50s and some just upper 40s. Late in the day a few showers could break out in the far West and south. Tonight will be cold with many mountains and immediate northern Piedmont seeing 30s. Rain and even higher elevation snow should break out as the night wears on. Areas look to be just rainy and raw tomorrow! Many will see upper 30s and low and mid 40s for high temps! The further not and higher in elevation the colder. A switch back to snow in the higher elevations looks likely tomorrow night with maybe some light accumulations. Cold rain elsewhere! T]Friday will again see rain, a mix in the higher elevations, early. It will be a bit more showery Friday and then more rain areas east of the mountains, and snow possible for the mountains Friday night! Rain showers and higher elevation snow showers Saturday, and again more rain Saturday night, but the snow line will likely lower in elevation and spread eastward! Areas in the immediate Piedmont and even a bit eastward could see their first flakes of the season as well!

A forecast of crazy cold and even wintry weather will be a bit challenging the next could of days. There could be changes, and even some advisories. Please note a 1 to 3 inch rainfall is likely with breezy conditions! Soup and winter coats weather for sure!

All for now!

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COLD COMING !!! AND SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS

COLD COMING !!! AND SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND, 2 SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO I 95 CORRIDOR, AND SOME HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MARYLAND , PA, NY, ON NORTH, TEMPS ALL AROUND WILL RUN 10 - 20 DEGFREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MAY NOE GET OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST SPOTS, MORE TO COME

***LUKE***

Wednesday - Friday rains. Cool/colder week

A cool day with many areas not breaking out of the 50s. A little warmer tomorrow(like yesterday's weather) and then a much cooler Wednesday with highs in the low 50s north and upper 50s south.Rain chances increase on Thursday and this will be a true soaking rain for northern areas with 1 to as much as 3 inches of rain possible between Wednesday Night and Saturday. Temps will be very cool with highs not even 50 for many places Thursday and 50 to 55 Friday and Saturday. Saturday could end dry and sunny.

Today and tomorrow look the best of the week!

All for now!

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Wednesday - Friday rains. Cool/colder week

A cool day with many areas not breaking out of the 50s.
A little warmer tomorrow(like yesterday's weather) and then a much
cooler Wednesday with highs in the low 50s north and upper 50s south.
Rain chances increase on Thursday and this will be a true soaking rain
for northern areas with 1 to as much as 3 inches of rain possible
between Wednesday Night and Saturday.
Temps will be very cool with highs not even 50 for many places
Thursday and 50 to 55 Friday and Saturday. Saturday could end dry and
sunny.

Today and tomorrow look the best of the week!

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Cool week -lookd Very wet Thursday

The week looks to turn very wet Thursday. More to come. Very cool fall
weather ahead!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Sunny skies and a cool pattern!

We went from a very warm Friday to a transition to a cool day Saturday and now Sunday! We are not too cool today with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
This week will say several cooler days!
Tomorrow will be cool with many seeing highs mainly in the 50s and low 60s. Showers will affect the west and southwest later in the day and the same showers will move across the region tomorrow night.
Tuesday looks very similar to today with highs in the 60s and lower and mid 70s.
Wednesday looks cool like Monday with highs 50s and low and mid 60s with sun
The cool weather will stick around. through the end of the week with showers possible next Thursday, Friday, and into Saturday.
Friday could be the coldest day with highs on the mid 50s to about 60 for most with showers possible.

The tropics will not see much activity.

I see a few encouraging signs for colder winter if we can lock this pattern all winter! At least 1 meteorologist thinks this will be a common pattern this winter.

All for now!

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Windy day in store - Morning Showers - Sunny Thurs-Clouds Friday but warmer!

A front is crossing the region this morning and after it passes strong winds will follow. Winds pretty much will be in the 15 to 25 mph range, but gusts up to 50 mph are possible. The NWS posted a wind advisory because of this. Temps will start of relatively mild and raise to the upper 60s and mid 70s through the region. Thursday looks dry and nice with temps again in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Friday will see clouds increasing and maybe a shower in the afternoon in the far west. Temps will climb as much as 10 degrees warmer with highs upper 70s to mid 80s. Showers look possible overnight Friday into Saturday and then Saturday is another breezy day with temps back to the upper 60s to mid 70s. Cooler air with highs mid 60s to around 70 Sunday and another chance of showers Monday with temps even cooler as highs may not reach 60 north and be in the mid and upper 60s south Monday. Cool 50s north and low and mid 60s south will continue for Tuesday. It is possible that nigh time temps could mean frosts and freezes for the mountains and Piedmont Tuesday into Wednesday of next week for northern areas.

Henri is looking healthy in the Northeast Caribbean. He will likely get sheared to pieces in the next 24 hours or so, but there are some indications that this could have a long term affect on the east coast. We will see.

Winter weather insight: Another possible linkage to winter weather is the Solar activity. I think this year will NOT be majorly impacted by the solar activity as it is very low.

If I were to say the players in winter at this point I would say El Nino is the strongest factor. All other factors at this point are too early or to volatile to be helpful.

All for now!

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Windy day ahead

Wind Advisories are up for a large part of the region Morning showers
will give way to increasing winds and decreasing clouds. Temps in the
upper 60s up to nid 70s.

Cooler temps for the weekend and beyond much cooler!

Tropics have Henri ( pronounced ahn-ree) this MAY play a role in the
longer term.

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Coldest air of the season this weekend into Monday

Cold air will pay us a visit. Could see 50s for highs in many places!

More to come

--
Sent from my mobile device

Cool evening - Bit of rain NC and SW VA - Little tropical storm Grace? - Bigger rain?- Long Term Cold - Winter?

Temps will cool down into the 40s and 50s tonight for most. Clouds and an increase in a chance for rain looks likely in SW VA and North Carolina. Virginia will mainly see clouds but some rain will be possible in Southern Virginia. This will be especially true tomorrow.

Temps will be in the 70 to 80 degree range. More widespread rain chances will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again Friday night into Saturday. As noted before, much cooler air looks to follow the system this Friday and highs for many may be the 50s next week with frosts and freezes possible.

On a similar note, there could be quite a bit more rain than what is indicated if certain events pan out the way they could. I will update if that occurs, but will leave this alone for now!


Tropics: A wild very small system north of the Azores looks very tropical and was named as I was typing this up. Tropical storm grace with winds estimated at 65 MPH. She is likely at her peak already and is REALLY small!

Another bloc of tropical convection will also need some monitoring the next few days.

So more winter outlooks:

First off in my last discussion I mentioned that the El Nino would not be as much of a factor this year for a favorable colder winter scenario. It ill be present mind you, which I think I misspoke on last time.

Second factor.. Cold water off Pacific NW Coast. I do not like it, but I would be wrong thinking it is a lock all winter. these things can change and I would not put stock in it for another month or so. But, if it hangs around, I also would not expect as cold of a winter as the Pacific Jet Stream would be in an unfavorable position. WAY too early to tell how this will play out.

Snow cover I will continue to watch and will definitely expand this week!

All for now!

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Somewhat cool-Rain Wed-Rain Poss Saturday - Long Term COLD?

First off, today will be one of the best weather days of the fall so far! Temps will be generally in the 70 to 75 degree range! Always a lot to do in fall with Fall festivals and the like (we love Cox Farms here in Northern Virginia http://www.coxfarms.com/ ) and I am sure many others know of places to visit! Cool nights will continue with daytime highs 70 to 80 for most of the region (70 north, near 80 south) through the week! Wednesday looks like the next best day to see some rain showers and we will have to see what takes shape exactly here. A strong front will cross the country and may set the stage for some severe weather as well. 70 to 80 degree temps will continue to next Saturday when yet another cold front will cross the region. Behind this front we may see the coldest intrusion we have seen this year! Highs may be in the 50s for some and the first frosts and freezes could hit the mountains and up near the PA/MD border northward.

Around the country, the Rockies will see their first true snow storm of the season, and the far south could see another bout of extremely heavy rains (not good for them).

Tropics look pretty quite right now. Will have to watch for a system about mid way through the Atlantic Basin, but not sure it will amount to much as of now.

All for now.

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Rain chances have decreased - Some clouds - Foggy start

Looks like the rain chances have ended and we should see a variably cloudy day with highs in the 70s. With so much humidity we start off with some fog and an isolated afternoon storm cannot be ruled out. Sunday should be very sunny with highs in the mid and upper 70s. Temps will stay about the same through Tuesday. We should see some more rain chances starting Tuesday Night into Wednesday but temps remain the same.

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All for now.

Jimmy

Another cold night. Warmer Friday. Rainy Saturday

It will be another very cool to cold night with temps in the 30s in
the mountains, low to mid 40s north, and upper 40s and low 50s south.
Winds turn southerly tomorrow and temps will range from the low 70s
south to low 80s south. Clouds will increase. More clouds Saturday
with showers possible and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe
Saturday, especially if sun can heat things up. 70s and maybe some 80s
Saturday too.

Temps fall back to low and mid 70s north and upper 70s south starting
Sunday with sunny skies. Tuesday will see more clouds and rain chances
again by Wednesday.

Tropics now have an interesting tropical low being watched by HPC.

All for now.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Cool day - some showers - Saturday Rain -More seasonable through the weekend

Cool air aloft will aid in producing showers today that are a result of warming sunshine and an upper level disturbance. Nothing too long and, if you get a shower, the temps will cool rapidly and then likely rebound. Temps generally in the 60s north and low 70s south. Coldest night so fr this season expected tonight. Mountain regions west of the Blue Ridge could see their first frost. Temps in the 30s out there, while low and mid 40s for many, some southern and coastal regions will see lower 50s.

On more cool day with highs again 60s to around 70 Thursday.

Temps warm to the mid and upper 70s Friday with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Friday night and Saturday look wet, maybe a few thunderstorms as well. Temps about the same Saturday and even into early next week as drying conditions set in Sunday and last until at least Tuesday.

Tropics still quiet for now and September was extremely quiet! There are hints in models that conditions may present some chances for a storm forming next week.

All for now.

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Cool day- breezy - Cool air lasts through Friday - Wet Saturday

Very cool this morning with lows in the 50s. Temps will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s today. Breezy with winds gusting into the 30s this afternoon.
Temps will be about 5 degrees cooler tomorrow with highs in the mid and upper 60s at best. Night time lows will be in the 30s in the mountains and 40s for most everyone else. Temps will get a bit warmer Thursday and be similar to today and then 70s Friday. A front and low pressure will then move through the area Saturday and bring more rain to the region for Saturday.

Tropics remain quiet for now but signals are there for another potential system some time next week.

All for now

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Cooler air on the way - breezy!

Nice and cool autumn morning! Highs today will reach the lower and
middle 80s south and around 80 north. A cold front will also pass
through and cause scattered showers and storms. Some storms could have
gusty winds. Temps will then really cool down. Highs in the north will
be 65 to 70 through Friday and temps in the south will be 70 to 75.
Lows will be cool! Low to mid 40s north tonight and mid and upper 40s
the rest of the week. 50 to 55 for the south. Things look dry after
today for the rest of the week.

Of note, today and tomorrow will ber very breezy!

All for now.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Rain ends for a day - more tomorrow and then dry the rest of the week

Rain has ended and clearing should commence and today will end sunny with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.

Tomorrow a front will come through and some showers and maybe some thunderstorms. Temps will again be in the 70s and low and mid 80s.

Cooler air will come in after the front and send temps down about 5 to degrees and much cooler air will come tomorrow.

Drier conditions will continue through the rest of the week.

Temps will continue to be in the upper 60s and the mid 70s.

Tropics have calmed again and nothing on the horizon.

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All for  now!

Heavy rains tonight - Gradual Clearing tomorrow - especially west - more rains Monday - Some thoughts on winter!

Rains have been heavy which is bad for SW VA and Western NC as some flooding has kicked up again. Rains will start to decrease, but will be slow to do some. Some rains will continue to be heavy at times for the eastern region in the morning and some thunderstorms will also be possible east of I-95.

Monday, a front will come through and drop temps from the 70s North and Low to mid 80s south (which we will see tomorrow and the next day) to just 60s north and low and mid 70s south. The Upper 60s and low to mid 70s should then persist with drier days through Friday!

What of winter?
I said I would start to look at factors that could help predict the upcoming winter and the first is too early to tell. The snow pack.. We will need to watch this up until about Thanksgiving before I get a sense of the possible tell tale on the snow and cold for the region.

As of now, the forecasts I have seen are calling for a warmer than normal winter and below normal snow. I think it is a bit early to make the call but there are some hints that I am noticing on why. The biggest is the lack of a moderate El Nino which looked like it may make its presence known.. predictions have slackened on it so that too is something to note.

Other things that will help include SSTs and also the patterns we see this fall. I have been a bit encouraged by seeing the precip and some cold intrusions along the Eastern seaboard (being the snow lover I am) but nothing is totally there on a pattern yet.

All for now!!

Quite a bit of rain this morning - cooler 60s and low 70s - some clearing then more rain tomorrow

A front has progressed through a lot of the area and is along the VA/NC border this morning. A plume of moisture overrode the front and resulted in widespread showers throughout the state of VA. These should decrease as the day goes on due to drier air works into the region from the north. An organized area of Low pressure will come through the region tomorrow and bring a good soaking rain, especially across central VA and NC. Areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rain from the storm.

The Low lifts away Sunday so things will slowly dry out until another system pushes through Monday afternoon with a few more showers. Drier weather will then return.

Temps will likely be cooler than first thought with 60s to near 70 north, in the low and mid 70s south.

Tomorrow will be very cool with 60s (low 60s north around 70 south) tomorrow.

Temps will be in the 70s Sunday and Monday and a little cooler (upper 60s to lower 70s) Tuesday. A warmer Wednesday with highs back in the mid and upper 70s.

 

Warm day ahead of fall weekend

Tomorrow will see clouds increasing again but temps remaining in the
70s for most. Rain chances will be on the increase over time from west
and the south. Rain will be present in WV and NC and SW VA. It will
eventually over spread the whole region Saturday into Sunday.

Cool 60s to low 70s Saturday should warm again starting Sunday and
early next week.

All for now!

--
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HAPPY FALL everyone

--
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Another nice day for Many - SW VA and NC sit in clouds/showers

It is going to be pretty nice for most of VA today, but clouds will be on the increase in clouds and SW VA and Western NC is seeing showers.
Clouds continue to increase area wide and showers will be slowly increasing in coverage tomorrow. Shower chances then stick around all week even a chance of some Thunder Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will actually warm towards middle week and be around 80 or even the lower 80s.

Of note, a system in the middle of the Atlantic does have some organization and could form into a tropical system the next several days.

All for now.

Nice weather for Virginia, the south is staying cloudy! More rain chances return Monday

Today began a clearing for most of Virginia and down to the North Carolina border. North Carolina will stay cloudy with rain chances straight through the weekend and into next week. Temps will be in the 70s and even some 60s where clouds are thick and rain occurs.

There is now something to watch in the Atlantic again as a tropical wave becomes a bit better organized.

Not a lot more to say! I am working on some additional updates to the web site this weekend and will keep you updated.

All for now!

Light rain and drizzle next 48 hours - Weekend looking better for Virginia!

70s with increased chances of rain through the day. After a concern of a locking wet period we now look like Northern regions could just experience rain today, tomorrow and part of Friday but the trend is now there for a dry yet cooler weekend for most of Virginia.  So we should see showers today, especially in the north and more widespread this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow. Friday should see a decrease in coverage and a less chance of rain in the north, but areas further south and into North Carolina could end up with rain showers straight through the weekend and into early next week.

The weekend looks cool with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. More widespread rain chances should increase again Monday.

Jimmy

A day more of sun with 80s - rain on the way

Another beautiful day today before we get a "Back door"cold front to slide off the ocean and over the area which will knock the warm 80s today to the 70s tomorrow with rain chances increasing throughout the day Wednesday and becoming likely Tomorrow night and Thursday. The rain chances will diminish some Friday and more on Saturday which could mean a drier end of the weekend.Temps will stay in the 70s.

The tropics look benign now though some forecast models hint at possible activity in the next 3 to 4 days.

Nice warm 2 days - rain to return

The weather will be very nice today and tomorrow! Mid 80s will be the
rule. Unfortunately a "back door" cold front will move into the area
tomorrow night and will bring cooler 70s with rain chances the rest of
the week, even Saturday at this point!

Tropics have settled down as Fred showed a burst of activity yesterday
that has died out.

Not much more to report for a Monday!

--
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Nice day - Now Rain possible Wednesday- and beyond??

Nice seasonal 80s today as we head into a week of less clouds and nicer weather after the pesky low has finally departed. The next chance of precip will be Wednesday as yet another similar situation starts Wednesday due to a High over the Northeast and a potential interaction of a cut off low. The end of the week is an unwritten story due to the uncertainty of the ways that the systems will affect the area. I am not optimistic.So, enjoy the warmer days before we may enter another cloudy and cool period.

All for now!
 
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Nicer weather on the way! Many saw it today! More tomorrow!

The weather stayed cool, breezy in the north today, and even showery in Maryland. Temps stay in the 60s and lower 70s. Many other areas broke into sunshine and much nice temperatures. This better weather should overspread the whole area and it will be nice until Friday when rain could return.

Of note, Fred has dissipated and the tropics are now calm again.

This last slow moving Nor'easter was a pain to deal with. I thought it would rain many days in Northern Virginia and it did not. Rain did hit the eastern shore and the Outer banks and Eastern North Carolina had a ton of rain as well. I am sorry to those in that region as this was significant!

All for now!

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Cloudy and cool for areas of Northern VA and MD - Clearing south

Where clouds persist today temps will only be around 70 to 75. If the sun is out, expect low 80s in your area. 80 to 85 degrees looks likely tomorrow and a drying trend with temps in the 80 to 85 degrees range. The drying looks to stay most of the week.

All for now!

Cool and Wet North and Eastern areas - nice west and south

Quite a bit of rain falling along the coast and in Northern Virginia and Maryland. This will continue today and slowly subside over the next 24 hours becoming less later today. I do suspect some local flooding is occurring along the Delmarva and that may be an issue.

The Low slowly departs on Saturday and will leave drier air finally and a warmer.

Areas not seeing rain, will likely see sun today and highs around 80 (Along Mountains and Southern areas). Cool 60s for others.

A dry an seasonal forecast for the early part of the week.

All for now.
 

Wet forecast will subside Saturday! Fred could be a major Hurricane soon

Cool and damp! Highs 70s to around 80 in some places. Rain chances will not be great until later today, tonight, and tomorrow.
This is a bit tricky of a forecast. Mountain areas up to I-95 will not see a great amount of rain. The Eastern shore and coastal regions could see very heavy rains especially later today and tomorrow.Thunder on the coast could very easily be possible. The Easterly flow will increase over the next 24 hours. Areas to the west of the Low off the coast will see a good chance of rain and some heavy later today. As the Low moves westward and the High in New England strengthens more rains are forecast to push west. Rains in Northern VA and Maryland could get heavy tomorrow as well.

I would suspect flood watches o\along the coast and possible further inland tomorrow.

The system will slowly lift out and slow drying will occur Starting Friday and finally truly arriving Saturday.

Fred is up to 105 mile per hour winds. Looks like he will head to sea. All for now!
 

Fred was born last night - Rainy day - Cool

Highs will be in the 70s today with quite a bit of showers.All this is due to the low coming up the East Coast and High pressure to the North East spreading rains inland. Showery weather will persist through Thursday and even into Friday. Today will be more uniform rains east of the mountains and somewhat heavy on the coast. Today will be the best chance of rain for the week as the low off the east coast will shift Northeastward and more out to sea. Persistent easterly winds will not let the chance of showers stop however all week!

Fred was named late last night and is packing winds at 50 mph. He has re-formed further south than his original thought to be center but he will likely curve into colder waters in the next few days. He could easily be at Hurricane strength by tonight or tomorrow morning.

All for now!

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London weather - Fred looking more likely

Rain chances will continue to increase area wide, but especially along the coastal plain east of I-95. This is in response to a trough to the west and a slow moving low off the Carolina coast. Rain chances will be somewhat less after today and tonight, but persist all week. Temps will pretty much be in the mid 70s to some low 80s.

The Tropical disturbance off the African coast has been upgraded to likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. He still looks very healthy. The system will likely curve north as all models show and be a "Fish Storm" as they are referred as.

All for now!

Changes! A little better chance of rain sooner - Tropics may get Fred

Well, when I took some time this evening to do a bit more analysis I saw several things I missed.
First, West Virginia is getting quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some will spill into far western and southwestern Virginia.

Second, with the onshore flow, several showers and storms hit the Delmarva today and the Eastern Shore. This will persist!

Last, the system just off Africa could be Fred if it holds.. but he will likely be a fish storm!

So the easterly flow and a Cold Air Damming episode will set up and make the week pretty cool and cloudy with drizzle and light rain at night, and showers possible every day. This will be especially true in the Mountains with the up slope and the coastal plains with showers coming off the ocean. Of note, as the low off the SC coast slowly moves north, areas to the west and just to its north could see quite a bit of rain and even some severe weather is possible. Boating interests should take note as the persistent flow off the ocean and the gradient from this low and the High to the north will make the seas rough. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/marine/


The week will see persistent East and Northeast winds and with the low approaching from the south , Southeastern Virginia and Eastern North Carolina could see quite a bit of rain.

Tracking 96L he looked pretty well together and the NHC has it currently as a moderate chance of a tropical system in the next 48 hours!

I will have some updates in the morning, but a showery and cool forecast is upon us.

All for now!!

Nice day for some, but rain southwest and southeast- all slowly turn to clouds - light rain

We will have another nice day, but clouds will start to filter out the sun as the area is going under easterly winds. The questions on the future of the weather is how much the Low off the East coast, as it drifts north and how close it is to the coast. We will have to see. I do suspect the mountains will see more clouds and showers in the next few days. I do think the coast will also see a cloud deck come onshore and then sending the area into a cooler pattern. There is a chance that it could get rather full of drizzle starting Tuesday, but light rain showers could be present tomorrow later in the day straight through Thursday.

Southwestern Virginia and Western North Carolina as well as far eastern North Carolina could see rain, and much of the west and east are in clouds.

Tropics Remain calm.

What will the winter hold? I do not know yet, but there are some interesting things that are showing up that make me think this could be a stormy and snowy one for many areas. More coming on this, and this year I WILL post a winter weather outlook sometime later in October or possibly early November.

All is quiet! Even the tropics

This is a quiet weather day for the Mid Atlantic area and the eastern
US for the most part. The tropics have calmed and we are just looking
at seasonable temps in the 80s! You really cannot ask for much better.

Tropics have 2 areas of some fire up but nothing much to speak about
as conditions are not favorable for development.

So it is Aeration and Seeding time so I will do a plug for my buddy's
Aeration company because he is a great friend and will do a top notch
job! http://theaerationcorps.com
Seriously, a great thing to do this time of year and he is one of the
most quality guys you will ever find!

All for now!

--
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Bit warm today - but nice - Maybe a shower or two Monday

Today will be a bit warmer than I first had thought we would see this weekend, but that is good for the last pool weekend of the summer.
We will continue pretty much dry. Monday could have some showers especially in the mountains. The rest of the week looks pretty dry, but Thursday and Friday a front will approach, but does not looks strong. Some showers could occur then.

Other than this, pretty much we will have seasonal temperatures.

Tropics: Tropics have calmed. there is a disturbance west of the Cape Verde that is showing a medium potential for possible tropical formation. As of now, I am not thinking much will occur.

Of note, Josh Morgerman of http://icyclone.com went and witnessed (chased) Hurricane Jimena when she came ashore on the Baja of California.. His posts at the Eastern Us Wx Forum are worth a read!
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=204934&st=465

Please get out and enjoy the weekend!

Jimmy

Beautiful upper 70s and low 80s - De\ry forecast - Erika posing more of an East Coast Threat

Another delightful day with the area seeing temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The low to mid 80s on temperatures looks to persist through the Labor Day weekend with dry weather!

Erika is not well organized but producing impressive convection! The cloud tops were extremely cold last night. She appears to have reformed her center and latest guidance is putting her further into  threatening zone for an East Coast Hit. As of now, she does not look like she will be able to reach Hurricane status so a heavy rain producing storm is the threat I am seeing. FL, GA, SC, and NC should be taking note of her forecast. I suspect South Carolina or North Carolina could see her hit, with GA not too far out of the question. FL is a threat, a but a turn up the East Coast seems more probable at this time.

On the other coast, Baja is getting slammed by Jimena> she is not the seriously strong 155mph storm she was, but will be a tough storm no matter what packing 105 mph winds this morning. The Eastern US WX board has one member who is out in it http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=204934. Also, msnbc article from this morning http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32653657/ns/weather/

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All for now!

40s! How about that for cool! Erika was born - possible East Coast threat - longer term a bit uncertain!

40s tonight and maybe 30s in the mountains of West Virginia! Tomorrow will start a warming trend with 70s and low 80s for most area. Then 80s return to the region except the mountains by Thursday.Seasonal temps in the 80s will continue through the weekend with a pretty dry streak. The models have backed off a bit from another warm surge next week as new models are showing a strong low in Eastern Canada funneling somewhat cooler air over us. Things are in flux due to this.

Tropics: Erika has been named in the Caribbean and I believe that the East coast could be at risk for at least a close call next week. Most likely region would be the Carolina Coast. If models change an the warmer air idea resurfaces along the East coast, we should watch the system closer.Of note, this evening she is exploding with convection and strengthening. She would be stronger if all circulation would like up properly, but this has been an issue for her for several days.

Sorry for the delays in posting! I was sick and then had to get caught up on work. I am not completely caught up, but wanted to post! I expect to be back on track the next several days as we watch Erika.

All for now!

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Email launching by weekend!

All for now!

Nicer weather north - South and SE VA to see some rains!

Cooler weather is slowly filtering in. The Front that came through parts of the area is slowing down, so southern Virginia and NC are still a bit warm today, while Northern Virginia will see drier and nicer weather. The questions for the early part of the week is how far north and west the rain will be able to make it from the front that will be stalled along the coast. Overall, much cooler air will be here during the time with highs in the low and mid 70s through Tuesday. It starts to warm some Wednesday to near 80 in the south and then 80s most areas the rest of the week. Rain chances will be off and on for the southern half of Virginia and most of North Carolina.

Tropics again look interesting. Invest 94L has really become well organized overnight and will now likely become the next tropical depression of the season. This one is east of the Lesser Antilles and heading West Northwestward. If this continues to organize with its current position, it could end up being the next Hurricane as well due to its location and favorable conditions.

All for now.

Jimmy
 

Steamy days to be replaced by cooler weather - Some rain to contend with

Danny was absorbed into the upper low that was responsible for much rainfall in many parts of the area yesterday. Today has been very warm and still very steamy! We will see a front make it through part of the area but stall along teh coast and Southeastern Virginia. This will mean much cooler temps, but, unfortunately we will see chances of rain from it.

It may be a dry Sunday and Monday for the northern third of the region, while most of Southeastern VA and eastern NC will see an ongoing chance of rain.Rain chances will increase overnight Monday through Wednesday as waves of low pressure ride up and along the front. Towards Thursday drier conditions will return. Cool 70s, even some 60s will dominate this week after Sunday! Temps slowly warm towards next weekend!

Although many did not see too much flooding, Manchester Maryland saw nearly 6 and 7 inches of rain. I believed more was on the way, but the consolidation of the low and Danny helped concentrate rains along the coast.

The next potential system is Invest 94L. I will watch. We also cannot help but remember Katrina coming ashore in the Gulf 4 years ago. Someone posted the NWS discusssion on this and I thought I would share again.

Here it was:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


All for now!