Winter Weather Alert - Minor event for many!

After last week I wanted to stress that this is not going to be a big snow or ice event for most of the Middle Atlantic until you cross into PA and NJ. For the Northern VA and DC as well as Maryland a period of light snow and sleet will be likely tomorrow night into Tuesday morning. This could make commuting a hassle Tuesday Morning and could delay schools. The temps will then stay cool, but not cold enough for snow. Along the MD/PA border there could be a couple of inches before the changeover to freezing rain and rain Tuesday.

For VA - The immediate Piedmont and valleys could see some freezing rain - north of Charlottesville there will likely be Winter Weather Advisory condition as well as Western Loudoun (I-15 and west)

MD - Along the PA/MD border could have 2-3" of snow before the changeover,

PA - Ice storm criteria could be met for the southern half of the state - Precip will oscillate between sleet and ice as well as snow which will be prevalent at the start (Tuesday) and towards the end of the storm. In between, for many, a havy steady rain will also fall which will cause some concern for flooding. Spend today freeing run off areas to avoid flooding issues. Northern half of PA will be a serious snow and sleet threat!

NJ - Western and NW areas, especially valleys will see an icing issue. Snow with be the predominant type Tuesday and then mixing to sleet and ice, more quickly along the coast. Rain will then surge to most of the area by Wednesday Morning.

BTW - this storm is just huge! Check all the watches and warnings at Weather.gov to get some perspective. If I were traveling this week I would be very worried!

All for now!

 

Forecast Video for January 30, 2011

I am hoping, at some point, to supply what little snow storm video capturing information that I did Wednesday up on the site. Today will feature cold conditions. This morning freezing fog caused a serious crash in central Virginia, so it shows you that you do not need to have precipitation to have a serious weather situation. Regional Breakdown

NC - Seeing the mildest weather in a while - Temps will be in the 50s and even 60s in some areas.
VA - South seeing milder 50s n the south, but still cloudy and foggy in the middle part. In the north some snow showers possible and highs in the 30s to low 40s.
MD - Snow showers - highs mainly in the 30s
PA - Snow Showers and light snow - 1 to 2 central - 2-6 west
NJ - light snow showers - 1 - 2 inches

Longer range: A low will move well west of the Appalachian mountains. Rain may be freezing in the VA and MD Piedmont, but heavier rain appears to be in the forecast. The colder air will not be dislodged from PA and NY as well as New England. New England will again be buried with snows of 1 to 2 feet and ice will also be a concern for areas in valleys of Central PA and NJ. Lastly, a lot of rain on snow pack may bring some flooding concerns to parts of PA and Southern NJ. Make sure the snow is pulled away from the house and drains can drain.

All for now.

Video is out also highlighting what I am seeing with the models.

Snowing quite well and will for a bit longer

Northern VA, DC, and Maryland may end up with an additional inch of snow today as the snow keeps on flying!

January 28,2011 Outlook

I made this Video Earlier Today!

Snow will be heavier this afternoon and into tonight

After a morning slug d moisture that actually had accumulations of up to 3" in spots, the main part of this storm will really get cranking up this afternoon. Heavy snow will fall between 2 and 10pm. Snow totals of what is left will be in the 4 to 7 range west and north of the I-95 corridor and 3 to 6 looks more likely now near the major cities.

There will be a Lull in the precip until the second part of the storm arrives. The evening commute for many will be a real challenge!

All for now.

Snow map was posted last night at http://www.midatlanticweather.com. Not so sure about the 12" possibilities, but will be fun to see what verifies.

All for now!

Snow Map

My current job is in the way of a new post! (And it should)

I will definitely update and have a snow map later tonight!

Many to see snow - thinking 3-6 inches with some seeing 8" or more for areas along and west of I-95. Parameters need to be set and will soon!

Tweets ongoing at http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx

Milder day before snow on the way for west areas

Today will see temps jump up into the 40s to low 50s. Temps will be a factor in the weather the next 24 hours. Precipitation will start to overtake the region starting way SW this afternoon and then spreading northward. The mountains and immediate Piedmont look to see snow and sleet mixed while the Piedmont up to I-95 may see a mix of rain and sleet with some snow in the western portions. Wednesday still remains tricky as the mixed regions will likely warm a bit so rain is possible for a period of time, and then areas quickly get colder later afternoon to switch to snow. At this time, I do think from Charlottesville to Washington's Dulles airport to 30 miles west of Baltimore and points west could see 3 to 6 inches with isolated spots seeing near 8". Mountains could see 6 to 10 inches with some up to 12".

The storm totals will also be stretching up into the Northeast.

This will be a tough forecast day and I will have some updates through the day and break it down by region later.

All for now!

Potential Winter Storm Mid Week

Sending a quick outlook on the potential storm this Wednesday. The storm will be very marginal in temperature along I-95 which will make this a somewhat difficult forecast. There are many factors with this storm that make it not an Ideal (for snow lovers) track for a lot of snow.

 

1. No Real blocking up north to hold cold air.

2. Storm comes in to departing colder air - the Arctic blast is moving away

3. A more wound up storm will flood the area with warm air

4. A weaker storm may end up with a light snow event.

 

What I do believe:

1. I-81 corridor of VA will see snow.'

2. The immediate Piedmont of the mountains could see the most snow.

3. Areas about 30 miles east of the immediate Piedmont could be the location where snow to a mix and then back to snow will occur.. ironically the higher precip amounts could offset the amounts due to mixing.

4. East of I-95 will see rain with some mixing at the end of the event.

 

There is a lot of time to monitor. Areas up north of VA and NC will also see a lot of snow and Southern New England may again be in the heavy snow!

 

A lot to watch so please check back as we get closer. Planning on a map by tomorrow late.

 

All for now!

 

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Snow kind of fizzled - VERY COLD and the Next week challenge

First off the weather system overnight did not do what was forecasted by many. The "jump" of energy to the coast took too long and warmer air remained keeping temps above freezing. So nothing at all accumulated! A miss by most all people reading models.

But we are at the warmest part of the day as temps will fall and winds will increase causing a blustery day with highs falling to 30 or below areas east of the mountains, and teens to single digits west by nightfall. Add blustery winds, and you bet there are wind chill advisories!

Cold weekend will mean highs pretty much in the mid to upper 20s for both days.

An odd set up of a system is looking likely early next week, and despite cold air this weekend, a snow to mix to even rain event is looking possible. Ironically, on this system, the weaker it is, the more likely snow will fall for most of the event. As of now, the low really is strong and this may be an Appalachian mountains big snow with a lot of mix and rains east of there. A lot to ponder.

All for now!

Snow on the way - very cold - another snow possible!

The weather today will be much cooler than yesterday. I was surprised by the highs reaching into the 50s for many. Today will see some breezy conditions with highs upper 30s (North) to mid 40s (South).

Tonight, snow will be likely through the area but areas south of Fredericksburg are likely to see mixing with rain. Accumulations will be in the trace to 1"  from the I-66 corridor up to the MD/VA Line - 1 to 2 inches for Maryland but approaching 2- 4 for the PA/MD border counties. 2-4 inches for south half of PA, NJ, and all of WV with some higher amounts to 5". NJ could see the south half with 2-4" and the north 4 to 6". WV, MD, and PA mountains will see 4 to 6".

Tomorrow will be cold and windy with highs in the 20s in the north and 30s south.

The weekend will continue cold with highs upper 20s to mid 30s for the region. Night time lows will be in the teens for most and single digits possible north and mountains.

We will be watching a snow threat early next week but temps may warm and cause some mixing or even rain for some.

More to come!

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All for now!

SNOW ALERT - Small Event

It does appear a period of snow will occur tomorrow night for the northern third of VA. For areas along the VA and MD border 1 to as much as 2 inches seems possible. In MD, 1 to 3 inches with the lesser towards southern areas. For the southern half of PA it appears that 2 - 5 inches could occur. A slight bit more possible in NJ with 3 to as much as 6 inches in isolated locations.

 

More can be found an http://midatlanticwinter.blogspot.com -

 

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All for now!

 

 

Dense fog - then clearing - small snow event on the way for North regions

We have a lot of dense fog this morning all across the region. Rain showers across the south will slowly move out and the sun will break through later today. Temps in the north will climb to the upper 30s while the south is going to be quite mild today with temps topping out in the low and mid 50s!

Cool enough air and a low will track through the region tomorrow night. A swath of snow covering areas of Virginia north of Fredericksburg and all of Maryland looks likely. 1 to 3 inches appears possible with the least amounts in the south part of that region and closer to 3 along the PA/MD border. Even heavier snow across PA, NJ, and DE with 2 to 4 inches and then along the Northeast areas seeing 3 -6 or even 4-8 near New York and Southern New England with areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches up there.

All for now!

Yes - 2 snow chances in the medium to long term

I am hoping to update late tonight, but initial thoughts are a 1 to 4
inch range Thursday night into Friday. More north and less south and
the Northern third of VA, MD will see this. More will occur up
northeast in NJ, and East PA.

Another storm threat Monday night into Tuesday.

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Updates - Some sleet mix tonight - Rain South/Snow North on Friday but not big.

Just a quick update to note that tonight we will see mainly rain showers with some sleet and maybe a few flakes towards the end of some of the precipitation in the north. Rain showers for the most part.

Friday looks like some rain in the southern half of Virginia, mix possible across the middle part of the state and snow northern VA and MD.


More later!

Icy Morning! Pictures!

Icy mess

Be extremely careful. Temps in N VA and MD will not be as warm today
as expected. Mid 30s seem more likely. More snow MAY fall tonight. I
will assess a bit later this morning. BE VERY careful out there!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Mixed precip to cause some issues - Modest & cold rain on the way

Today rain mixed with sleet will overspread the area, and this will turn to light snow and sleet in Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. There is a chance that a dusting to an inch of snow and sleet occurs before several hours of light freezing rain. When the heavier rainfall comes the temperatures are likely to rise and the region will go over to a moderate to heavy rain for a while.

There could be a return to some snow tomorrow night as some more moisture comes over the region, but all in all, the biggest impact appears to be between 7pm this evening and 3am tomorrow morning.

Areas affected - Mainly west of I-95 north of Fredericksburg. The Immediate Piedmont of VA from Roanoke up to Leesburg VA and west could see ice and areas of Northern VA west of I-15 could see the worst of it with ice into the morning rush.

Longer term we will have to watch this weekend as now models have done some changing with the system,

If I did not say it before, the weather this week will be very hard to pinpoint.

All for now!

Latest information says Tomorrow is mainly a rain event

Many areas will see some sleet at the very beginning of Monday night and Tuesday event, but this now appears to be a rain storm for the most part.

This will be a good soaking rain with half and inch plus amounts for the I-95corridor and east.

Areas of far NW Virginia and MD will see more ice.

All for now.

Wintry week ahead - Mix, cold, snow!

Today is the easiest day of the week to forecast. Colder air is in the region so highs, mainly in the mid 30s north, mid 40's south.

Tomorrow, moisture will overspread the area and snow showers and sleet showers will occur towards evening. Highs will be in the 30s to low 40s.

Tomorrow night is the true challenge.
Many areas west of I-95 in VA up into MD will see a period of sleet and freezing rain. Areas of the immediate Piedmont of the mountains COULD reach ice storm warning potential, but that depends on precip amounts. It may just not precip enough for a significant enough amount of ice.

Rain is a good bet elsewhere and a cold one at that. If certain models are true, quite a bit of rain could fall for areas east of I-95.

As of now models are all over the place and none are consistent with themselves. Confidence in the forecast is extremely low so I will hold off after tomorrow night.

Of note, it looks to get very cold by next weekend and there may be a more serious snow threat by then as well.

More this afternoon!

All for now!

Ice mix looking likely Monday into Tuesday

Exact locations will be west of I-95 and especially up towards the DC and Western Maryland area! Snow/Sleet/and Freezing rain will need to be considered.

First alert. Another LATER tonight

Concern growing about a period of Snow/Sleet/Ice Monday Night

Support is starting to show that an icing threat will occur on Monday night. A high to the north and northeast of the region will supply enough cold air through a Cold Air Damming situation that could result in a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rain before rain becomes the precipitation type on Tuesday.

There is a threat of another snow system next weekend.

All for now!

Little snow in Northern VA this AM - Flurries/sprinkles tomorrow - Some mix Monday?

Just a quick update that there are some snow showers in Northern VA this morning. This will quickly end. Tomorrow could have some snow or rain showers during the day with mostly cloudy skies. Some models are now showing mixing Monday for some of the region. If this continues to show up, I will post an update later this morning!

All for now!

Cold to start to lessen - RAIN on the way - then cold/dry?

Sorry for the later day post today. Weather was cold and breezy! The cold is going to lessen as the weekend continues and a storm begins to go west of the Appalachians.We will still see highs in the upper 30s to low 40s tomorrow. Saturday continues about the same but more clouds and a few snow showers are possible in the north. Another colder day Sunday after the passage of a front and then Monday poses some challenges.

Monday, as warm moist air overrides colder air at the surface some mixed precip is possible in the Valleys and the immediate Piedmont. As of now, this looks fairly light, but I suspect we will have some issues as we get closer to the event as the cold air damming will set up and is always hard for models to get right. Most of the coastal plains will see a potential for some sleet mixing at onset and then a cold rain. It is even possible a more substantial rain will occur Tuesday and some flooding concerns if this melts some snow pack. We will see.

After this system, cold looks to come back and the pattern also looks dry.

All for now!

So what is next - cold and windy then milder and rain threats.

This storm did fairly well up north, whereas I should have expanded my 0 to 2 inch areas a bit north and knocked an inch off things in MD - I was closer in some places and very poor across most of 95 from DC to Richmond where no real accumulations existed.

Now we will see a cold spell as the storm has cranked up off the NE coast. Cold dry winds will make it feel like teens and low 20s today and single digits tonight!

Temps will stay in the 30s to around 40 until Saturday and then especially Sunday into early next week when 40 to even 50 degree+ temps will be common. Another complex system will deliver precipitation Monday and Tuesday. It looks like rain, but may have some mixed precipitation at the start. The system *COULD* wind up producing a lot of rain for some if models are correct and could ultimately have a wintry ending in northwestern regions, but details will get pinned down as we get closer. Next week we could also see temps maintain their 40 degree+ trends though a day after the storm may be colder.

I was hoping for 200+ tweeters by the end of the storm yesterday and I am up to 199 as of this morning! Join me at http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx


All for now!

Some Pictures of the snow in Sterling VA!

Northern VA and Maryland ended up with snow!

Realized I failed to post my last call map to the Blog!

Wintry mix and snow, but likely not a lot in VA. Northeast to see a lot more!

The storm systems that will converge off the DelMarVa today will be transferring energy over Virginia and not causing the best in organized precipitation. With that in mind, do not be surprised to see area really only see flurries and snow showers while some may see some accumulating snow. As the system finally gets going the Northeast Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey will see snow increase and this in turn cause more snow in that region. For Virginia, 1 to perhaps 2" snows looks more likely and even less along the Piedmont.
Is it possible there could be more snow - Maybe in Central Northern VA and MD IF the storm energizes sooner or the upper air support happens to be a bit more moisture rich than it looks like it would be.

Please refer to my late posted snow map: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieWmjNw9Xz_2IK103DViAtHuqlEYaozu6GlDBRFijWE-fbymuBEuHo1TEJ8VNUWhn08s74-HP2F0GjZpD5pq3emGnvShekXgLLH4a2vL1wsE5oTLYNHh3WK4JghlYUN0iVLlMErA/s320/January11Snow.png

New Jersey up into the Northeast will get a serious system with some seeing a foot and a half of snow!

After the storm winds up, cold winds will come in and make Wednesday blustery as well as cause mountain up-slope (west facing side of mountains) snows, Then a cold week will remain with highs 30s for north half and low to mid 40s south.

The next storm system could visit around Monday of next week and it is unclear exactly what this system will do. It may be wintry mix type or just rain. This may also signal a brief warm up as well. The dynamics are still in question and the signal is not super strong for a winter storm, but there are some indicators that something could occur.

All for now.

January 11th Snow Map:

This is the best I can do this morning. Some confirmation of my ideas will be verified or disproven by this evening! I will do an updated map later!

FIRST attempt at a larger area! We will see!

Winter Weather Alert - SNOW and MIX

What has been an absolutely wild system will go through changes the next 24 hours and will leave some with very little snow due to the way that this system will evolve.

SOUTHERN REGIONS:
Already seeing snow break out of the North Carolina and South Carolina Piedmont. Areas of the mountains and immediate Piedmont will see 4 to 8" of snow and some ice, but that will not be more than about .1 to .15 of an inch. Warmer air will influence areas of the Piedmont itself and after 2 to 4 inches of snow, sleet and then freezing rain will be in the offing and ice will accumulate to nearly .25 to as much as .5" in some spots. This is true for North Carolina and South Carolina!
Of note, the total snow amounts for the mountains could approach 10 to 12"

Middle Atlantic - VA, Bordering NC counties of VA
Snow will break out later today in the southern part of the region. Areas in the Mountains will see 3 to 6" of snow and some sleet is possible. Snow in areas east, but a general 2-3 inches will fall as this region will not get the heavier precipitation that areas south will see. VA itself will be an area of lighter accumulations. The Piedmont will see 1 to 3 inches. Areas along and east of I -95 through Fredericksburg and down to the NC/VA border will likely see ice as well, but not a large amount. Snow in the western part of the Piedmont north of a Richmond to Roanoke line will likely only see 1 to 2 inch snow amounts. That will carry all the way up to the Piedmont of Maryland as well. From Fredericksburg north to DC along I-95 and 20 miles either side a more solid 2 to 3 inches of snow seems likely. Then North of DC and eastern counties will see a slight bit higher possible with 2 to 4" likely and some seeing closer to 5" as you approach Baltimore.
The coastal plains, from the coast to about 40 miles inland will see 1 - 2" of snow and then a mix and even rain.

North regions. East PA, NJ, DE
A more substantial 4 to 8 inches looks likely with some mixing issues along the coast. Even further north, up toward northern NJ 6 to 10 " totals look likely and 12"+ amounts not totally far fetched.

May be all the time I have for this today. NC, SC situation is on its way - late this evening I will update the VA and Northward thoughts.

Follow ongoing daily thoughts at http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx
For reports on Snow and other things that are more real time - http://twitter.com/breakingmawx

All for now!

Jimmy
http://www.midatlanticweather.com
 

SNOW ALERT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Southern areas - Monday and Tuesday
Central areas - Tuesday into Wednesday
North areas - Tuesday into Wednesday

South: NC,SC, Southwest VA
We have serious Ice Storm concerns for SC, GA, and NC Piedmont. They are likely to see snow change to a sleet and freezing rain situation. The mountains will see a 6"+ system. 1-3 inches in the Piedmont before the changeover. The impacts will start Monday into Monday night.

Middle Atlantic- VA, MD
Snow will break out over all the area EARLY Tuesday and last all day and into Wednesday. Snow will change to sleet/rain along coast. For now, SE VA looks like 1-3 inches - Along I-95 20 miles either side looks like 3-6 inches and then west of this 3-5" (3 the further west you are) Amounts will increase towards Eastern Maryland

Upper Mid Atlantic - Eastern PA, DE, NJ
Significant system with widespread 4 - 8 inches. NJ and Northern Eastern PA looks like 6 to 10 inches.

All a first guess at this point.

More to come!

Snow winding down - Snow LIKELY Tuesday!

Last night I wrote that there could be some surprises in the snow. I was surprised to see parts of Central VA getting 2"+ amounts - they were hit and miss bands and even this morning there was a brief flare up of snow. The system is now moving on except for NJ which made it to storm level with places seeing 3 to 6+ inches!

Cold breezy weather today with 30s. Tomorrow looks sunny but cool.

The snow threat for Tuesday continues and now looks like a decent system up the 95 corridor! Snow will start in the deep south and then up the coast from what I am seeing. Snow totals will likely be in a general 2 to 4 inches and then areas along 95 may see even more as the low heads north.

A lot of details to consider.

Updates later.

Snow showers through area tonight

Dusting to an inch No VA, MD, DE. Northeast MD, far east PA, NJ, DE
need to pay attention to possible several inches. Could be some
surprise snow tonight so updates later!

--
Sent from my mobile device

UPDATE - Snow chances up for Tuesday based on models

Based on models the chances of Tuesday snow event coming together and are stronger. Western NC  and SC Mountains looks like a potential big hit at this point. Most of VA may see a moderate even as well as Northern NC.

Just a look based on models.

All for now!

Little snow for area tonight. Tuesday threat looking better

A clipper system will move through the area tonight and will have some
snow showers and maybe a period of light snow for the region. Snow
showers will be possible into tomorrow mid day. Cold air settles in
the region with some more snow showers possible Saturday. The real
even appears to be Monday night into Tuesday as a southern storm could
bring a significant to even heavy snow to the region. My confidence is
growing for the event, but I am cautious as there are many variables
to consider.

Thoughts on 12z model runs to come later this morning on
http://forum.midatlanticweather.com, Twitter at
http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx

Few other notes. The system tonight and tomorrow sets up a Norlun
feature over NY, MA, CT, North NJ, and Northeastern PA. Interesting!

Long range (about a week from now) looks very cold!

All for now.

--
Sent from my mobile device

SNOW ALERT - Northern VA, MD - Nuisance snow

Reason for this alert is to remind all to prepare for a potential longer commute Friday as a band of snow may drop a dusting up to an inch in Northern and MD.

Eastern PA, NJ, and up in NY, CT, MA could see a lot of snow a a Norlun (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_l.shtml )

An early heads up to a significant winter storm possible Tuesday of next week for a LARGE portion of the area!

All for now!

BIG SNOW STORM Appears possible Tuesday!

Models keep coming into agreement. Issue may be that Northwestern VA does not get too much snow. Interior VA near and east of 95 do very well on the 12z model runs! Northern Nc does well too. We will see.

Weather on track

I do not have much to add! Temps mid 40s to low 50s today. Dry cold front later today will knock temps back down to the 30s to mid 40s tomorrow. A small disturbance could cause some light snow Thursday and/or Friday with temps remaining the 30s to low 40s. Temps colder this weekend with strong winds which will send wind chills to single digits and teens. Snow storm still possible from the 10th to the 13th with true cold to follow!

All for now!

Pod Cast posted to Mid Atlantic Weather .NET

Highlighting Cold air on the way and a couple chances of snow.

http://www.midatlanticweather.net

VERY COLD temps coming - Snow threats exist!

After we had this brief warm up temps are cooling down and then getting really cold. We will see some snow possibly Thursday, but we will see colder air really start pouring into the region then. There could be a threat around the 11th for a snow storm, and this would again be a bigger threat for areas SOUTH of 40 N latitude as the colder air will suppress systems. Then the mother load of brutally cold air will arrive and we will see highs only in the 20s and for many regions! The cold at night will be very impressive.

After what I thought would be a very mild January and February, it looks like it will get really cold and I am not sure we will see warmer conditions.

All for now!

Jimmy

Rain ending - cooling down week - snow chances return

Rain will end today. Temps in the 40s. Temps will be in the 40 to 45 degree range until Thursday. Moisture will come in and light snow is possible by Thursday and into Friday. Temps will be cold next weekend. Bigger snow chances look to return about mid month.

Bit rushed. Pod Cast later at http://midatlanticweather.net

All for now!

Jimmy

Mild and showers today. Seasonal returns Monday - Colder by Friday

Showers and rain will overspread the area today. Highs will again be in the 50s for the most part today. Rain overnight will persist in the eastern areas into the morning. Highs tomorrow will mainly be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Then cooler air by Monday with highs in the 40s.

Temps a little below normal will continue all week with highs in the 40s and then even colder by Friday with 30s north and low 40s south.

What happens next weekend is a bit up in the air. There appears to be the possibility of a snow storm somewhere in the region. When and where exactly is still up in the air. There is a concern that southern VA and NC may again see the snow and Northern regions may not.

All for now!