Severe Storms are popping up all over Northern VA and MD! Severe watch up until 9pm in these regions. MANY warnings already

Severe Storms are popping up all over Northern VA and MD! Severe watch up until 9pm in these regions. MANY warnings already

Thunderstorms blooming this morning. More likely as day progresses

I already see a few warnings for Severe Storms and in the DC area the storms are actually building this morning!! After the morning batch, more storms are likely this afternoon as the atmosphere should destabilize further. I also suspect that there will be will be severe storms with high winds and hail being the main threat. Please stay tuned to media and web outlets for watches and/or warnings.

 

Goshen tornado ranked EF-1 for now

Back to the vortex 2 information. The tornado caught in WY was
initially ranked an EF-1

http://bit.ly/UC3Q2

--
Sent from my mobile device

Chance of storms a bit better than first thought.

Today we will see temps in the mid and upper 80s. In the north we have
a better chance of storms than first thought.

Tomorrow has even a better chance and will likely contain some severe weather.

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Storms a plenty this week!

After Today's nice weather,a  turn to more stormy patter sill ensue! We will see a daily chance of storms. Some could be Severe tomorrow and Tuesday. Highs will generally be in the 80s, but people getting north of a back door cold front will have a chance for much cooler weather.

Daily a chance of storms will continue until next weekend. So why has it been so wet? I will be looking into this over the next few days and see if I can provide some insight.

If you have not checked out the Youtube videos I posted yesterday, I recommend taking a look!

All for now!


 

Vortex 2 and the TWC capture a Tornado. One of the best sets of videos I have seen!

The research on this one will be amazing! Historical really. This is like when Dorothy went up on the movie Twister but more realistic! Awesome to watch!

 

Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXsSjJRHc48

 

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6WBFIJkLpA&feature=channel

 

Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAZ8VpFimug

 

Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIu8owd4LGg

 

There are more parts, but the above gets you what you want to see.

 

Dr. Steve Forbes gives commentary and it is very interesting. Very good information, awesome vidoe, and teh research from Vortex 2

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIu8owd4LGg

 

Jimmy

 

 

 

 

Heavy Rains and Severe Weather today!

The region will be in a volatile set up this afternoon with the possibility of multiple severe storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and a lot of rain. Please stay tuned to media and weather outlets for the latest news as Watches and Warnings are likely today.

Of Note: A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect at noon today and last through late evening.

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

First TD of the Season!

WTNT31 KNHC 281449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
 GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.  

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
 LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

Much cooler air with mountain frost on the way!

Much colder air is on the way today with rain slowly ending west to east. As the colder air settles in, temperatures could fall/maintain highs in the 50s along the Mountains and immediate piedmont. It will stay 60 to 65 in the piedmont to the shore.

Drier air will be in place most of the week with temperatures warming from a cool 50s and 60s Monday to 70 to as high as 80 starting Tuesday. Dry conditions look to persist until next weekend. next weekend could start to be interesting as a tropical system MAY form in the Lower Gulf and could get involved in an eastern frontal boundary.

All for now!

More rain and thunder, a cool down, but a dry spell on the way

Warm conditions will prevail today and tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s in some spots. Showers and storms will also be possible. The best chance for the showers and storms will be later today (30-40% chance) and then much more likely tomorrow afternoon and overnight.  Severe weather is a concern tomorrow afternoon.

A very cool few days will follow with some people struggling out of the 50s Sunday and Monday. Early Sunday looks rainy as well.

Next week looks dry with a slow warming trends from upper 50s and 60s across the regions Monday to upper 70s and low 80s by Thursday.

Monday night could have some frost out west.

All for now!

Severe Weather Threat Rising!

Tornado Watch issues for a large part of North Carolina, South Carolina, and the southern half of Virginia. Severe storms are starting to break out with warnings for Severe and Tornadoes already in NC and SC.

Please stay alert!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Rainy days!

This has been quite the patch of wet weather. The culprit is a frontal boundary that is semi stationary through the area. If you are north of the front, it has been steady rain. South, has had breaks in rain, but also pretty powerful storms including winds and even some tornadoes.

Today will see some lulls in the rain, but another impulse moves along the front and fires off another round of precip yet again! Southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina could see some severe weather as well.

Tomorrow the whole area should have the warm front move through which will bump the temperatures and also the chances of thunderstorms. Some could be severe as well, but the Severe Storms center has not yet highlighted all the area.

Unsettled and warmer conditions will continue Thursday with more shower and thunderstorms. Then Friday, as a front comes through, even more showers and storms. Saturday could feature yet more showers. It is possible that Sunday will be dry!

Thursday and Friday could see temps rise to the 80s in many locations.

All for now!

Wet weather pattern

Cloudy and periods of rain will be the main course of weather the next 5 days!

--
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Sunny but cool! Those were some flurries out there yesterday! Unsettled Friday into Saturday

Cold and some snow flurries did occur yesterday afternoon. At first I thought I was seeing petals from the Pear trees, but i saw some that were inexplicable any other way and then found that this was not uncommon yesterday and overnight.

Today remains cool with highs up to the mid 50s. Some clouds will come in later in the day. West facing mountain slopes will see some increase in snow showers tonight, and maybe a few showers east of the mountains.

Tomorrow looks like the best day of the week as many areas will see a seasonal temperature day with highs reaching the 60s.

Friday will see rain return as a huge storm system traverses the country. This one will be severe for many in the Southern Plains and that severe weather could reach southern Virginia and North Carolina before the whole system clears the area!

A cool High pressure will bring sunny conditions in for Sunday, but another system will start knocking on the door by Monday.

All for now!

Follow Mid Atlantic Weather on Twitter now at http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx

Flurries

Saw some this evening. Some possible west of 95 and mainly north

--
Sent from my mobile device

Very cool today and tomorrow. Showers could re-enter the forecast tomorrow night. More rain Friday into Saturday

It will be very cool and breezy today. Highs in the mountains will be in the 30s while southern regions go up to the low and mid 50s. Cold night with widespread 20s (mountains) and 30s elsewhere. Tomorrow will be about 5 degrees warmer with clouds on the increase and maybe some showers for parts of the region late. Tomorrow night into Thursday, showers could occur, and even high elevation snow showers.

A more significant system will come across the country and cause increases in showers Thursday night into Saturday. Temps will moderate to near seasonal at that point.

Clear and close to seasonal conditions will return Sunday and into next week.

A few cool news stories I came across in the last day.

http://www.wbaltv.com/news/19098826/detail.html new Dual POL Radar

More info from NWS on it: http://wdtb.noaa.gov/modules/dualpol/index.htm

Climate Change caused by Oceans and not Humans: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2009.pdf

All for now!

Severe Threat increasing in Southeastern VA - Tornado watch up!

Seeing many thunderstorm cells starting to show some rotation in a line that is moving towards Southeastern VA. This has prompted Tornado watches and there have been several severe storm warnings already down in South Central VA. Areas East of 95 from Richmond on down through South Carolina need to be alert!

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Severe weather possible today

Severe storms will be possible today and are actually already occurring in some locations! Please be alert and stay tuned to weather and media outlets. The biggest threat today will be gusty winds. An isolated tornado could occur.

This is due to a strong front that will usher in much colder air tomorrow!

All for now!

Jimmy

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Some strong storms possible today!

Today could be a bit interesting as storms could get to severe levels, especially east of I-95. This is part of a strong cold front that will usher in a much colder day Tuesday with many areas seeing 40s and 50s as high temps. There will be snow on west facing mountains and definitely a lot of wind. As the week progresses, temps will moderate slowly, but still be a few degrees above normal. More unsettled weather this Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide some rain to the region.

All for now!
 

Warm Sunday. Cold front Monday and colder air!

After a warm Sunday, a strong cold front will come through Monday and drop temperatures! This will be the start of a colder period then what you would hope for Spring. We will see high temperatures in the lower 50s for Tuesday and night time lows getting to freezing in some areas.

Longer term we will see temperatures rise back to the 60s by next weekend. The risk of rain will come back too by Friday and Saturday.

All for now.

Nice sunny weekend. Early next week cool down.

Windy day for tyoday, but beautiful! Highs will be in the 60s and lower 70s!

Tomorrow we lose the winds and have about 3 to 5 more degrees added to
the forecast. Clouds will increase.

Rainy monday and cooler tuesday. All for now. More later!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Heavy rains and severe possible today

Heavy rains, high winds, and some severe storms are possible today.

 

Biggest threat from the severe storms will be the winds, but isolated tornadoes are not out of the question.

 

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Spring rains

Rainy weather is a welcome site as we continue in drought conditions.
Today's rains will not be much. Friday looks a bit more optimistic in
the rain department anmd may have storms as well.

Mild to almost warm conditions are in store for tomorrow. Later day
clouds and maybe rain will start out west. Temps in the 60s to low 70s
though. More rain and potential thubder on Friday.

Could be a nice weekend with sun and 60s to 70s!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Quite the blizzard out west! High waters! Probably some...

It has been a very active spring already this year! many tornadoes reported. Blizzards in Texas and Oklahoma! Another taking shape over South Dakota today. It is pretty wild!

For us, as the storm wraps up and pushes a warm front north of the area, we will see some warmer temps today. that will be followed by a pretty wild afternoon as thunderstorms should break out and cause some higher winds. We "Cool" down tomorrow to the 50s again, and then see some warmer temps later this weke. A coastal low may form and cause another bout of rain wednesday into Thursday will some cooler air.

Blizzard video coverage:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXzool-s0xU&feature=player_embedded

Poor people up in ND under so much water!
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/red_river_flooding.html

From NWS:

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
RED RIVER AT FARGO AFFECTING CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES

.CONDITIONS ON THE RED RIVER AT FARGO AND MOORHEAD REMAIN DANGEROUS.
THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY ABOVE RECORD LEVELS...AND AT THIS TIME THE
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...REPORTS INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT OVERLAND
FLOODING SOUTH OF FARGO...AND THIS WATER IS EXPECTED TO STILL FLOW
INTO THE RED RIVER BETWEEN HICKSON AND FARGO. DUE TO RECENT COLD
WEATHER...OVERLAND FLOW INTO THE RED RIVER HAS SLOWED
DRAMATICALLY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AS TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK ABOVE FREEZING LATER NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...RIVER LEVELS MAY
FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 41.0 FEET AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 7 DAYS. WITH THE RIVER EXCEEDING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD LEVEL...THE RELATIVE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MODELS
REMAIN AND THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BEHAVE IN WAYS NEVER BEFORE
SEEN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM MAY CAUSE WAVES OF UP TO
2 FEET...ON TOP OF THE CREST VALUE...TO IMPACT THE WESTERN DIKES
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THUS...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
RIVER COULD RISE AGAIN.

AT 1030 AM CDT...THE RIVER STAGE AT FARGO IS 40.69 FEET. THIS LEVEL
EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OBSERVED IN THE 1997 FLOOD...WHICH WAS
39.57 FEET. THIS LEVEL ALSO EXCEEDS THE RECORD HEIGHT OBSERVED IN
1897...WHICH WAS 40.10 FEET.

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION IS USED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGES...TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN...

- DON`T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

- CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TO REPORT FLOODING.

- PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THE FOLLOWING SEGMENTS CONTAIN RIVER INFORMATION FOR
THE SELECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THIS MESSAGE.

THIS FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR ICE JAMS THAT CAN
QUICKLY RAISE LOCAL RIVER LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE.

&&

MNC027-NDC017-300354-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.3.SM.090321T0150Z.090328T0515Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 1030 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 40.69 FEET.
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 41.0
FEET AND SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 7 DAYS. WITH THE
RIVER EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS RECORD LEVEL...THE RELATIVE
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST MODELS REMAIN AND THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE
TO BEHAVE IN WAYS NEVER BEFORE SEEN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE
THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM MAY CAUSE WAVES OF UP TO 2 FEET...ON TOP OF THE CREST
VALUE...TO IMPACT THE WESTERN DIKES ALONG THE RED RIVER.
THUS...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE RIVER COULD RISE AGAIN.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 40.2 FEET, FARGO...TOP ELEVATION OF THE
EMERGENCY LEVEES.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

DATE SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
(MONTH/DAY) 03/29 03/30 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/04

RED RIVER
FARGO 40.6 40.4 40.2 39.8 39.4 39.1 38.7



--
Posted By midatlanticweather to Forecast Discussion at 3/29/2009 10:24:00 AM

On target

Only thing I want to say is that amounts could be 1 to 3 inches more
west of i-95. Expect snow to be very heavy starting between 4 an 8 pm
central to northern va and 6 to 10 pm in Maryland. Some places in pink
will see 14"+ amounts!

There is likely to be a dry slotting lull in action setting up west of
i-95 which will keep that in lower amounts!

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

I am very impressed with the moisture - I suspect areas along and just east of I-95 could be seeing their fist 12" snows on a long time. Baltimore and east over to Delaware - 12 -16"!

This is a big storm. Some of the latest models are coming in and are showing the storm lasting into Monday!

Right now, I am expectin areas from Roanoke to Charlottesville to Leesburg to Eastern Frederick county and east to see storm totals 3- 6"

Areas 15 -20 miles west of 95 up to 95 and about 15 to to miles east - 4- 8"

Areas east of this up to 30 miles inland from the coast.. Jackpot! 6 -12" with some areas easily 12 - 14"  (Isolated even higher!)

I suspect that the western edge of heavy snow COULD shift eastward and that would mean the whole area shifts east.. it is also very possible the jackpots could go westward!

This WILL be a high impact event!

Get ready!

MAJOR WINTER STORM ON THE WAY!!

most models are now coming together on a solution for a possible major snowstorm from nc up to maine. more to come, and this would be the second storm, there are 2, the first on sat- sunday morn, and the biggie sunday night to teusday.. stay tuned!!!

*** luke ***

Get ready!

SNOW in 2 doses.. one tomorrow night.. One Sunday! More to come!

 

Severe Storms on the march

A line of very strong showers with embedded thunderstorms will cross the region overnight! Expect very strong winds and brief heavy rains. We will then have a very gusty wind situation through tomorrow evening! Winds will gust over 60 miles per hour in the mountains and up to 60 in most areas!

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Snow will wind down today. Cold for the next few days and then a warmer trend

The storm system behaved fairly close to model predictions that started about 24 hours ago. Before then, I pretty much was unsure of what would happen. In Northern Virginia we had a dusting. Areas up against the mountains had 1 - 2" and higher elevations actually had  3 to five inches of snow!

Today, snow showers will be present, especially this morning. Some instability could cause more this afternoon. As the storm gets wound up, winds will be gusty today making it cold! We will be about 10 degrees below normal.

Tomorrow and Thursday we will continue cold, with highs around 30 and in the 30s in the north, 30 to low 40s in the south.

A much milder trend begins to show up Friday into the weekend with temps reaching the 50s and even 60s in the south again by Monday.

Longer term, it does appear a shift back to cold may occur about the middle of February. Seasonal temperatures will occur next week.

All for now!

Now I am ready today - Not much snow!

Not saying i will not be watching radars today and tonight to see if the models missed the actual forecast, but it appears safe to say that after some rain today and starting tonight, a period of light snow looks likely tomorrow morning that will not accumulate to much, and only really accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces!

Sorry for the wishy washy forecasts, but the models really did flip-flop on the solution several times!

All for now!

Verdict is still out! Some snow appears likely - accumulations????? I dunno!

I am growing more confident now that I am not going to really know much until we get the storm to form. There are chances that 2 low pressure systems could form and which one becomes the primary could mean the difference in snow and how much. Last night's late runs really put us in a lot of snow. We are back to a smaller amount on the latest runs.

Jimmy

THINGS MAY HAVE MAJORLY CHANGED

Could have a HUGE snow on us Monday into Tuesday! We will wait and see, but WOW for the new models!

Time to put things in perspective

The likelihood of a huge and historic system is fading with every model run. We may see some snow here Monday night into Tuesday, but even that is questionable. It has been an amazing change in the last 36 hours as the models went from a Historic Blizzard to barely a storm on the east coast Monday into Tuesday. Once they started saying there would not be a big snow/rain/blizzard, they have pretty much stuck with this idea. I suspect we do not know the final outcome, but I am thinking this storm could end up missing us altogether!

We will continue to watch and update as we can!

All for now!

POSSIBLE MAJIOR WINTER STORM!!!FEB 2ND-3RD!! FOR MID ATLANTIC!!

12 z guidance for nearly all models has a strong low of coast of nc/va, bombing out to nearly 989 mb as its going up coast, could mean big snows for mid atl depending on track. so stay tuned, remember things can change, but with only 3 days till event models are coming to a solution, stay tuned...

luke

Unfortunate truth of this area! Winter weather is hard to predict - Winter weather less of an impact

While I still suspect the biggest winter weather event of the season, the snow impact is far less now. Shifting the zones one notch north for everyone puts most of Northern Virginia in a 2 to 4 inch threat. Maryland 3-5 inches, and the heavier snows up northward! That being said, we may not see totals even that much. Ice now is becoming a bit of a threat for northern areas as well.

For people wondering what happened? Well, the storm originally was forecasted to be weaker! In this case, that made it a good thing as we would not have a hard southern wind pushing warmer air in so we stayed snow a long time. The low pressure went south of  the region. That low is now MUCH stronger than forecast so stronger winds now will push the warmer air up here! Disappointing for snow fans like me! When storms get that strong, they also tend to move further north and that also is true!

Because of this, the forecast has changed and, I am sorry to say, may still change more!

All for now!

Winter Weather Alert! Potential for first real snow of 2009!

Tuesday into Wednesday will likely hold the first big storm of the winter.

Scenario: The arctic front will stay south far enough to allow warm moist air to override the colder air and cause snow to break out Tuesday. The moist air will be pumped north by a system that will be pushing the precipitation into the area. The southerly winds will slowly warm the atmosphere and a gradual changeover to ice and rain in the southern region.

As of now:
Maryland and Northern Virginia (North of Lexington to Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Dover Deleware could see 4 to 8 inches of snow. Closer to Pennsylvania may see as much as 12 inches. The differences in precipitation will be areas that mix with sleet and freezing rain. The further south you get the more likely a mix even to rain will occur.

Central Virginia will have a good amount of snow (2 to 4 Inches) before mix and changeover to rain.

Southern Virginia - South of a Roanoke to Farmville to Richmond to Chincateugue line, will see 1 to 3 inches possible, but a mixing with rain and ice and then rain will stop the accumulations and quickly be washed away.

This is based on the latest guidance and it will likely adjust over time as we get closer to the event.

More to come!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

This could be a great week for snow! We shall see

A situation is setting up that is challenging and potentially exciting, especially the Northern Half of Virginia, up into DC and Maryland, IF you like Snow! The Arctic front which will be south of Virginia and slowly climbing northward next week, could have an overrunning (moist air thrown up over teh cold air) event that would be the best snow yet this winter. In systems like this it usually ends up with snow and an eventual turn over to ice and then rain, but most precip is done by the time it is too warm for snow. If things continue as they are showing, the time frame to watch would be Tuesday into Wednesday. There even *COULD* be another wave of wintry weather later in the week.

We will see! Longer term we could see quite a warm up early in February, and possibly a change again back to better chances of storms shortly there after.

All for now!

jimmy

No Big Snows - still need to watch a bit

Synthetically speaking, we do not have the elements for a big snow storm. The Systems that are coming through are not slowing and amplifying as the flow in the atmosphere is too fast. So we have a wave that is developing off the coast tomorrow night, but it has moved well east of the area!

Sorry for the false alarm.. this winter is NOT shaping up as a snow producer as the key elements needed keep missing!

That being said, I will continue to monitor the next 24 hours. Sometimes things can change!

All for now!

NO BIG SNOWS FOR US

looking like mondays snow chances are now nothing but maybe some flurries or possible snow showers, nearly all of the models are takeing the storm too far off-shore to really mke any kind of an imopact.

*** luke ***

Snow Chances Increasing for Monday!

 

MORE TO COME

Why we need to be careful in this pattern! It is gonna get COLD!

First of all, it is gonna get BRUTALLY cold by next weekend. Next Friday may have many areas with highs in the teens! HIGHS IN THE TEENS!

Second, the set up next week will be a tough, and it is possible that a surprise snow storm could develop! Yes, A SURPRISE because it may start to show up very close to the event.

Just because it may show up, does not mean it will.. But a little reminder of January 25th, 2000 does come to mind. The PATTERN and not the forecast models show the potential! SO stay tuned to the weather day by day!

So get ready... Tuesday could be the first surprise with a bit more snow than what is expected.

Second, we just have to watch.

Third, it is time to be sure you are ready for the cold! Protect outside spikets, get the antifreeze checked, and a new battery in your car if necessary!  By the end of next week it will be BRUTAL!

All for now!

Jimmy

NEXT 10 DAYS!

well, today thru tomorrow, most of us will see a mix to rain, maybe some snow north of mason-dixon line.... on 13th-14, a clipper comes down and, latest 00z gfs and euro, show some coastal development off va-nc border, have to wait and see on that... then the 15th-16th,. another clipper comes down, a little more to south, could be some snows.. still 5-6 day away for that one.... then after that storm the real change happens, it gets frigid. and stays frigid for about 2 weeks.. which takes me to my final thought. on the 18th-20th, a storm forms in gulf, and comes up coast as a miller A. and it looks to be plenty cold enough for snow..

now remember the ones beyond 3 or 4 days out, can and probably will change back and forth change, so of course we have to keep a watch on them. but either way, its looking very wintry the next 2 weeks and beyond.

*** luke ***

Ice on its way

With the evening has come a steady sinking of the dew point. At my house I am own to 9 degree dew points! That is sufficient to cause serious evaporational cooling and sleet! I suspect this will be the first precipitation type here in Northern VA. As expected, Far NW areas have been placed under a Winter Storm warning and the winter Weather advisoury stretches south and southwestward.

Expecting this to still be an elevated surface event, except shaded regions. Also, expectin snow and sleet mix near the PA border.

All in all, NWS is on target this time for Northern VA! Way to go!

South of Fredericksburg will not see much

Draw a line from Galax VA to Roanoke to Charlottesville and go up the mountains and you will see a mix. From Charlottesville up to Dulles and west, it will be more of a signficant mix. Go to the immediate Piedmont of Virginia from West of Charlottesville up to Hagerstown and up in to PA and I could see enough ice for warning status!

All I have!

Some ice

If you had chance to see my forum update, you would know that I have not been overly enthusiastic about the ice chances other than along the immediate piedmont. The high pressure that will provide some cold air damming is not in the best position. The northern virginia nws has this one in grasp. Many ares in a winter weather advisory. Some areas in far NW virginia an western Maryland, east of the mountains, likely to see a warning issued. All area roads are above freezing east of the immediate piedmont. Result will be a elevated surface and shady spot event. No matter what, a little ice can be very dangerous! More to come.

Jimmy
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ICE STORM!!!!!

looking like a classic cold air damming event for teusday- wed. arctic air will come in after a cold front on monday, and the cold air will get dammed up against the mountains, in the lower levels. with warmer air aloft, so we could have several hours of sleet and freezing rain, as temps here at surface will be below freezing... more to come...

***luke***

NEXT 10 DAYS...

the next 10 days will feature a number of things. first will be a warm up.. then around the 1st of jan, the NAO goes negative, with a positive PNA, a greenland block is now on the models, and we have a possible storm on coast around the 2nd and 3rd. the euro as of this writing has a storm on the coast in perfect position for a snow storm, and the gfs has a storm more inland, so we still got 10 days, so alot can happen stay tuned..

luke

MAYBE SOME ICE AT THE START.

well temps have hardly budged today its 1 30 pm and im still at 28.0F so we maybe seeing some sleet snow or ZR at the start of precip tonight, but whatever we get should be rain by tomorrow . looking ahead.. will be a warm up rest of the week. then NAO goes negative and a possible coastal by the jan 2-3,2009 time frame, but ... thats 9 days out so im sure alot will need to be re visited by then, as alot will probably change .

*** luke ***

Light mix tonight into Sunday

Everything looks colder. A very light mix will happen tonight. This will be an event for the valleys and immediate piedmont with some snow and sleet for Maryland and northern virginia with a mix of sleet and freezing rain to end. Precipitation will be light. I see a winter weather advisory being issued by 4pm today for areas along and west of i-95 down to federicksburg and west. Then mountains and immediate piedmont down to roanoke.

All for now.
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WEEKEND STORM

looking like a mix to raqin for most, ... those of you up,in central pa on north and west of I-81, may see more snow. but near the big cities and south of mason dixon, looks to be a mix to rain.. just not enough cold air gonna be entrenched at low levels or upper levels aloft... of course this can change, but this is how i see it now

*** luke ***

Updates later tonight - Light Mix followed by rains

A little more of a mix than I thought could occur, but realize that we have a rain storm, a cold one, on the way Saturday night into Sunday. The front end could feature a little snow and sleet, but count on rain.

Mountains of Northern VA and MD - Bit more snow
Valleys of Northern VA and MD - Some Ice to deal with

Overall, any mix changing to rain Sunday morning.

VERY cold Sunday later afternoon and Monday

Warming Tuesday afternoon into Christmas.

White Christmas is a No - Go for us!

All for now!
 

Not as clear cut for Sunday, but some snow is likely Saturday night

As usual for this area of the country, a clear cut snow forecast is almost impossible! And this will prove no different. I do expect there will be some snow Saturday night for northern regions, but a wintry mix is more likely into Sunday and then maybe just rain. A lot to watch and ponder and this could go either way at this point.

Jimmy
 

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM ON DEC 21-22

heres part of the discussion this morning ...

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEEP YOUR EYE ON LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN. SIG WINTER EVENT MAY BE
UNFOLDING DRG THIS TIME. GFS IS GETTING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A VERY
CLASSIC PTN FOR WINTER WX IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS W. IAD FCST
MAX TEMP OF 33 IS DOWN A DEG VERSUS YESTERDAYS MEX MAX GUIDANCE FOR
SUN AND IT WILL START OFF BELOW FRZG TO START THE EVENT.

850 MB TEMPS START THE DAY AT MINUS 7 IN THE MTNS WITH SFC SYSTEM
FCST OVR KY AT 12Z SUNDAY. 2NDRY LOW THEN BEGINS TO FORM ALG THE
CAROLINA COAST. AGAIN...STAY TUNED. IF YOU DON`T LIKE WINTER
WX...MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME TO CALL YOUR FAVORITE AIRLINE AND GET THAT
TICKET TO MIAMI.

looks very interesting this weekend.. stll 4 days to go, stay tuned!!

***Luke***

Rain and a little mix this morning - Showers this afternoon. Light Mix for some Thursday Night. Winter Storm possible Saturday - Sunday!

The mixing was not that impressive overnight. I am again glad I had not hyped this event, though I was so busy i would not have been able to do much this time. The showery weather will persist today, but not as much rain. Cloudy and cool conditions. Tomorrow as the day progresses more rain will start to enter the picture. Again in the northern regions some ice could occur. This looks like more of a Maryland and maybe far northern Virginia.

The bigger threat appears this Saturday night as a low pressure approaches from the south after the cold air has better settled into the region.This is too early to tell, but snow does look to break out Saturday night with a mixing in the southern regions and possible changeover to rain, while north regions change to a mix east of 95. This could be the first significant snow of teh season for a large part of the area!

All for now!

this is a nowcast situation

with all the different types of precip around, its very hard to pinpoint and predict who gets what,.. for example. at 7 pm i was getting heavy sleet and 33 degrees, now at 8 40 pm im getting a sleet rain mix at 32.7 degrees, lol so i think this is more of a now cast, meaning its ever changing, and always has to be updated with what kind of precip we have... regardless on what kind you get tonight, i think by tomorrow afternoon most should see rain. but this weekend could be interesting, but more on that later. be safe on the roads..

***LUKE***

Messy weather week!

I know many would like an update.

Right now this is a route 15 and west threat up into maryland. Sleet and some snow possible. Enough ice for a winter storm warning. The key problem spots will be the elevated surfaces. Route 15 north and west from charlottesville.

Snow and sleet the closer you are to PA. Some areas of western MD could see 2 to 4 inches of slop!

About all i have for now!
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WINTER STORM WARNING/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYS

depending upon where you live, your could have a winter storm warning( in the far western counties) to a winter weather adivsory ( for the central counties) for wintry mix and iceing conditions, this is an ever changing event, plz stay tuned, ill be updating as the day and night goes on.

***Luke***

over running rain, then maybe something wintry next weekend

looks like overrunning rain for the midweek to the end of the week. a stationary front will set up just south of us, and waves of low pressure will ride along the front. at this time it looks like rain. by the time next weekend comes around, we could have a storm coming up from the south as per day 7 of HPC proggs. of course i like say, that is 7 days out, so alot will probably change some what so stay tuned

luke

Some challenges, but a cool rainy week looks likely after a balmy day of 60s Monday!!

This week will not be entirely cut and dry when it comes to precipitation types. The reason, the cold air that may be able to seep further south than what the models currently are showing. If this occurs, some days could feature a mix of rain and snow in the northern regions. I am not sold that it will be that way, but it MAY enter teh forecast. The NWS in Sterling has just added that possibility for Tuesday and Tuesday night in Maryland and Northern Virginia. Right now, expect cold rain and maybe that some sleet could be involved Tuesday in northern regions.

Unfortunately, a chance of rain or showers will persist all week after a rather balmy Monday (Highs in the 60s) a cold front stalls over the area and is a conveyor belt for precipitation in several waves as systems ride along the front.

Why might we see some frozen precipitation out of this? A cold hogh in Eastern Canada could be stronger than forecast or further south. If either of these are true, more chances for wintry weather could nter the picture. As of this morning, I am thinking that the synoptic set up just is not right.

We look drier next weekend after the last wave of precip moves through Friday Evening. Christmas week looks seasonal early with a chance that right around Christmas day or shortly after, colder air invades!

All for now!

Jimmy

possible snow/ rain chences in december...

well we have a few chnces at something( rain or snow).. coming up.

first: dec 16th - 18th: this looks to be more of an overrunning event, waves will track west to east along a front that SHOULD be south of us, with isentropic lift ahead of waves if we are cold enough we get snow, if the front doesnt go far enough south then we get rain, still tooo early to even have an idea, and models arent agreeing right now ( whats new ).

dec 19th-21st and dec 23rd-25th: these two are on the models, but at this time are too far away to even try to have an idea, like i always say... models will change many times before the event gets here, so we have no idea at this time, but there are the possiblitys

stay tuned:

luke

NORMAL TEMPS

looking like temps will remain near or slightly above normal for the next 5 days, maybe some rain at the end of the peiod, no snow or ice storms on the horizon at least for the next 5-7 days, stay tuned...

Luke

RAIN is the headline with a little mix to make things interesting at the end

The good news at this point is that I did not over hype the chance of snow or winter weather too much on my Snow and winter weather forecast. The issue is that it will not do to much at all and what we see will not be likely to accumulate, at least in teh form of wintry weather!

We have a lot of rain that is going to fall today! In the neighborhood of 2 to 3 inches. Some areas could see 4 inches. The NWS has issues a Flood watch and I have to agree with that.

The Far Northwestern areas will see some ice late in the day and a turnover to snow is likely at some point overnight from west to east. The areas to see accumulations will be mountain areas, and some immediate valleys and piedmont could see 1 - 2 slushy inches on grassy areas. Areas east (East of I-81) will likely see just a dusting at best and then areas further east just some snow showers and not much of anything as the precipitation winds down late tonight and tomorrow morning. All that being said, it is possible some regions could see more snow west and Northwest and especially more on the west facing mountains and areas where colder air can start funneling in easier.

All in all, this is a complicated set up. There could still be some more wintry weather than what I am thinking, but, many factors are working against that so I would think a raw an very rainy day is in store!

We look to be more seasonal in temps as we go past a cold Saturday and temps could end up in the upper 40s and mid and upper 50s in parts of the region next week. We may also see more rain chances starting Monday night and lasting through Wednesday!

Summing it up.
Mountains and Immediate piedmont - lots of rain - ending with some snow 1-2 " east of mountains, 2-isolated 4" in mountains.
Immediate Piedmont up to I-95 - lots of rain, some snow at the end, likely mixed with rain - no accumulations
Mountains and west - solid 2-4" after a changeover with some ice potential as temperatures fall today and the transition time occurs
East of I-95- lots of rain - brief mix with snow at the end. Better chances further north you are

After a colder Saturday, moderation is on the way!

All for now!

Complicated! Rainy, some ice,.. likely little bit of snow

FIRST I want to say that there is going to be a lot of rain the next couple of days. In order of 2 to 4" if things pan out the way they may.

SECOND it will be very warm tomorrow and could include some thunder.

THIRD a front will swing through and how far it goes will mean a big difference in what we get weather wise. I can see sleet and some freezing rain, especially piedmont. Snow, sleet and freezing rain are likely to be along and west of the mountains.

If we see the front that will cause the rain tomorrow head further south and east than currently forecasted, we may see some more wintry weather. As of now, the areas of the immediate piedmont and mountainous regions will need to be monitored.

This is not a "set in stone" scenario and I could see some surprises, especially with ice potential as cold air damming sets up.

I will be unable to look a lot at this until tomorrow evening. I hope to have some focus by then! Luke will also look at this and keep the conversations going at the forum!

All for now!

Jimmy
 

model diagnostics

, i wanted to explain the difficulty in forecasting with the models. you see, you cant just look at the models and make a forecast. some models have a bias to them for example... the GFS has a cold bias. the ECMWF( euro) has a warm bias., so you have to factor that in... also.. the gfs is known to take a storm wayyy off shore than as days go by, start to bring it back west, so you have to really wait till it gets within 4 or 3 days before you can really make a real guess. and even only 3 days out, the models will still have their bias's, so you have to take that into account. soo... this storm coming on thursday-friday. needs to have more time, the gfs has it a bit too cold. the euro has it a bit too warm. the gfs is a little off the coast, and the ggem is a little off the coast, dgex looks good, right on the benchmark at 18z. the euro, is a tad too far inland. the ukmet, looks pretty good, so... got to take all this into
account, as most models will still fluctuate run to run. so....

basically, we probably wont a have a real good idea who gets snow, and who gets rain till about wednesday. so stay tuned... Jimmy and I will keep you posted

***luke***

LATEST ON POSSIBLE COASTAL!!

heres a excerpt from the NOAA NWS STERLING SITE IN BALTIMORE WASHINGTON AREA.....""Then the models get even more interesting...this mornings 12z European model (ecmwf)
/as well as yesterday evenings 00z European model (ecmwf)/ develops a coastal low
sweeping up the southeast coast into the middle Atlantic by 12z Friday. 12z GFS
ensembles depict a similar solution but with precipitation shield mainly to our
south and east. Am not too confident with either specific solution
at this time as timing gets worked out...but I am confident that this
mornings 12z GFS control run is not in line with the mean ensemble
products and European model (ecmwf)...and we have a highly energized atmosphere middle-
to-late work week which will pose a NE gale/precipitation risk for our County Warning Area
late Thursday into Thursday night.""

just thought id show you all whats coming down, more to come!!

***luke***

COASTAL STORM POSSIBILITY???

looking like we have a possible coastal storm for the wed night thursday- friday time frame....the latest 12z gfs, ukmet, euro, and jma, and to a lesser degree the 06z dgex... all have a coastal storm , allthough slightly at different positions, the exact positioning will need to be looked at by jimmy and myself, its still 4-5 days out, so im sure some things need to be tweaked a little, and im sure some models will fluctuate so definatley something to watch, stay tuned :)

***Luke***

WILL IT SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT?

Probably a little bit, but most will see just flurries! The most energy is headed north of the region and that will end up keeping us away from the best moisture chances. The energy will go straight over the mountains which will also tend to dry it out. That being said, clippers can do a little better than you would think and it would not completely surprise me to see a period of light snow and that could dust quite a few places. LIGHT DUST that is!

It started off VERY cold today! I hit the teens for the first time this season at my house!

Tomorrow, as the system creates a coastal low off of New England, winds will kick up and a very blustery day will be on tap! Highs in the teens to mid 30s for most with strong winds will make it miserable!

Monday will see a calmer day as the High Pressure system slides through and starts to move out.

With some dryness in the air and a storm approaching, it would not surprise me to see some sleet, possibly snow in the northern area, as precipitation starts Tuesday morning, but the precip will be a cold rain.

My thoughts that it could go milder, have been replaced by the the thought that it may not be as cold, but still pretty chilly! This MAY lead to an interesting set up next weekend but things still do not paint the best picture

POSSIBLE SNOW CHANCES FOR NEXT 7 DAYS

well, we have a little clipper coming through sat night, then we have the over running apps runner coming through on teusday-wed( ALTHOUGH THATS MORE OF A RAIN EVENT), ... then we have a possible more important systen for 12th-14th time frame.. many days left for that one, im sure models will meander back and forth. the latest 00z euro, cmc, , and gfs al point to a coastal low( although gfs is more out to sea than cmc and euro, but this far out the gfs is not very reliable anyway more to come, jimmy and i will keep a close eye on this one, remember like i always say... still 6-7 days aout, alot can and probably will change.

luke

Wintery Weather on the way. How long will we stay cold? What are the real snow chances?

Today an Arctic cold front is coming through and will drop temps through Monday. Highs will be 20s and 30s for the most part the next several days. Sunday we will be cold and windy too!

 

We should see some rain showers today. These change to snow in the Higher terrain in western areas.

 

Cold conditions tomorrow and Saturday with highs struggling to the 30s, some low to mid 40s in the south.

 

Saturday will have an increase in clouds and snow showers or even a period of light snow is possible Saturday night. This may whiten the ground in many areas that have not see any accumulating snows this year. Mountains will see the most accumulations. There is a chance that the system will start to energize on the coast and cause a more sustained snow in eastern areas, especially NE Maryland and Delaware.

 

Cold and windy conditions Sunday and Less windy but still cold Monday.

 

Another storm system approaches Tuesday and timing seems to have more to do with whether we see a mix or just rain at the onset. Despite this, at this time, all signs point to more liquid than frozen precipitation.

 

With the pattern changing a bit a milder pattern is looking more likely later next week into next weekend. Some opposition on this by some models, but it appears this is pretty likely.

 

All from Jimmy now!

 

 

wintry precip possibilitys..

well we have a possible clipper coming through this saturday-sunday, could be some light snow, then we have a stronger system, for the 10th-11th,the later system on the 10th-11th is still too far away to pinpoint at this time, models are still all over the place. the clipper could put down anywhere from a trace to maybe an inch or 2, but remember like i always say.. still many days till events, so alot can and probably will change with the models, but this is how it looks at this time.

luke

GFS

well the 00z run puts the storm on the 9th-11th off the coast and really bloew it up, so remember ,we still have alot of time, and many many runs of gfs and euro and cmc, and so on... left, so im sure some will change, but, as of now.... its looking better for snow lovers... at this time anyway, stay tuned

model spreads

hey all, jimmys right, i do get a little excited when it comes to storms lol, but the truth is.. it is still a good week away, and there is a big model spread with the track, some models want to take this storm farther inland, and a few models want to bring it up the coast, then you got some models wanting to bring warm air up, and some models wanting to keep it cold enough for snow... and lately no 2 runs are the same, very hard to pinpoint anything until probably few more days.. but i cant help getting excited.. winters here ... gotta luv it ... more to come :)

Luke

First we will see a BIG chill down as an Arctic front moves through. Highs this weekend will be widespread 20s and 30s!

SNOW? I am not sure. Luke and I are looking at models. He is getting excited, and I see the potential. But we have some limiting factors. The biggest is the negative NAO! that being said, there could be enough cold air at the start of the event for snow, if we get a storm. But what will happen? A Miller B, a Miller A? I m not confident now but see some things to look at!

All for Jimmy now! More to come!

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM 9TH-11TH

were still watching the " potential" of a winter storm on the 9th-11th time frame, models are not agreeing with each other. so we need to wait and see.. as we get closer im sure models will come more in line with a solution. wwhether good or bad

luke

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM on 9th-11th????

hey all,

well there is a real possibility that a storm could be brewing for the 9th-11th time frame, GFS has been a bit eratic as we all know it usually is.. but the latest 12z EURO has a nice storm just off carolina coast, it looks great, but remember still 8 days away so im sure it will go back and forth on the models.... stay tuned either way it certainly bears watching.

Luke

some sleet last night, then rain still watching dec 9th-10th

hey all, i got some sleet last night with the onset of the precip, but it didnt take long for temps to rise and it turn to rain, looks like about .5 to 1.00 inches of rain today. dec 9th-10th still looking like a possible winter storm for mid atlantic.. but remember it still 9 days away, so im sure models will flip flop.

thats all for now, GO RAVENS!!!

luke

winter forecast

hey all this is luke,

i took a look at the latest ACFS forecast, and let me tell you, its gonna be a cold snowy winter ill post a link here so you all can see the forecast for dec, jan and feb,. im thinking could finally see some accumulating snows here in the mid atlantic by the 6th , and then mqybe by the 9th. but either way temps will still be below normal here is the link...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/usT2mMon.gif

Some sleet likely tonight for many, but a cold rain on the way!

Many will see some sleet at the start of tonight's precipitation, but a quick turnover to rain most everywhere as warmer air will be in place above teh surface and make this a cold rain. Immediate deeper valleys of the Piedmont north of Charlottesville and in Western Maryland could see some sleet and even some freezing rain. The warmth will squash my first thoughts of snow west of teh mountains as well, though wrap around snow is possible for the western facing Mountains Monday into Tuesday.

Colder air will settle into the region for a few days and then some warming Thursday to the 50s and even a few 60s! We will have colder air again by next weekend as temps remain in the 40s and low 50s at most for highs. The colder air could lead to another wintry threat later next weekend.

So we have a very cold rain for most areas with some colder pockets causing sleet. Then a cold and breezy aftermath Monday into Tuesday. A slight warming Wednesday into Thursday with some colder air again by next weekend.

Jimmy

Frozen Mix on the way! Cold rain the outcome!

There will be some interesting weather Starting tomorrow night and continuing into Sunday! It looks like now we will see some sleet and even freezing rain west of I-95 as a southern storm heads towards the area. Warmer air will come in quickly, and many may see some flakes for a little bit, and then a quick changeover. I could see sleet being at the start of most areas of the middle part of Virginia with a quick turnover to rain, but, the temps will drop to freezing or below west of the I-95 corridor. Areas further north in Western Maryland, east of the moutains, could see some accumulations. West of the mountains, could see a 6"+ snow!

Although the exact scenario is hard to tell. The valleys North of Charlottesville and along teh spine of the Appalachians of Virginia up into Maryland COULD see enough ice to meet minimum Warning criteria. Most likely areas North of Charlottesville up to Maryland and about 35 miles west if I-p5 will see winter weather advisory criteria!

Quick map likely soon!

All for now!

Cold air to be a little less the next few days! Could see some snow Sunday!

Happy Thanksgiving!

We will see somewhat warmer conditions today and tomorrow as temperatures rebound to the 50s and maybe some 60s in the South.

Temperatures will come down some tomorrow. This COULD set conditions for a somewhat wintry event for Sunday as Snow and Rain could overspread the Immediate Piedmont and Northern regions. The precip will turn to rain for most the area but areas along and west of the mountains. This could be quite the rain event as it turns into a true Nor'easter. The issue with this not being snow is the lack of cold air being locked in the area. So as the storm pulls warmer air in off the ocean it will change things over for anyone seeing snow or a mix. All that being said, we still should watch this storm as things could evolve differently and that COULD mean more snow for some.

After this we stay below normal next week. As of now, the brutal cold air does not look to unlock yet, but it could by late week.
All for now!

Colder than normal temps are sticking around! Still see Brutal Cold possible first week of December!

More snow showers and even a period of light snow fell yesterday in Southeastern Virginia! The low that was forming has gone up to New England and Canada and will be the cause for winds today and a continued cold day with highs not out of the 30s for most and low to mid 40 for the southern areas. Another chilly day tomorrow and then a front comes through Moonday into Tuesday Morning. rain showers will be the precip types as warmer air is pulled up in front of the system. A changeover to some snow and rain showers mixed is possible Later Monday Night into Tuesday morning, and all snow by that time in the mountains where they will again see accumulating snows on Tuesday, but not like we had. I had believed next week we could warm up some, but a large upper level low over northern New England will kee the cold air flowing in to the region. Thanksgiving looks quite chilly with highs generally in the 40s.

Next weekend is showing the first sign of a more organized chance of wintry weather. It also may be the point where we see a flip from cold to frigid for teh following week!

All for now!

Jimmy

Cold to continue. Long term looks brutal

Not a lot of time to write. I see cold air sticking around through next week, with a reprieve for next weekend. A chance at some snow showers the next 24 hours, especially overnight and early tomorrow as we get a reinforced cold shot of air from a clipper like system. Mountains will see another blast of snow, but not as much as last time. Temps will struggle to make it out of 20s in mountains and 30s east. 40s will be for the southern area. Next week we stay on the colder side of things with highs pretty much remaining the 40s. Some rain and snow showers Monday into Tuesday, with mountains seeing some more accumulations. It looks like we could see some milder air next weekend and then a return of real cold, with RECORD COLD not out of the question based on latest model trends!

All for now!

Many could see first flakes of the season next 24 hours

A disturbance and cold front will cross the area the next 24 hours and bring even colder air into the region tomorrow!

For today, the cold air aloft will cause clouds to increase as the day goes as the sun will cause some convective precip to form. Mountain areas should see rain/snow mix, higher elevations, just snow. Showers elsewhere. As the energy from the front approached there could be just enough moisture to allow snow showers for most areas tonight. This would be more up north. The reinforcing shot of cold air will bring plenty of wind as a system develops off the coast. Areas along the eastern shore up through Delaware, YOU MAY see a period of light snow tomorrow morning! That low and the building cold high to the west will bring winds in the 20 and 30 mph range with higher gusts to the Piedmont and coast, and even higher winds to the higher elevations. Westward facing slopes will see an increase in snow! The ski resorts are happy!

Temps will remain in the 30s to as much as upper 40s in the south tomorrow, but it will be the coldest day we have had this season thus far!

The rest of the week looks cold too. Wednesday's highs will almost match tomorrow, but have less wind. Highs will rebound to upper 40s and low to mid 50s south Thursday, but cold air again will be reinforced for Friday and in to the weekend!

How we looking longer term? First, I do not want to fail to mention a Model showing a potential Snowstorm possible for New England that we could see a little touch from. That would be later this week, and, as of now looks improbable. About 8 days from now we "COULD" see a real shot at a storm system along the east coast which "COULD" spell some accumulating snows for the region. After that, models show some changes and a milder pattern for several days. This is way far out and I just am not sure at this time.

All for now!

Windy! West facing Mountains to get some snows. maybe a flurry east. COLD week!

Quite a powerful front yesterday. We had a Tornado watch out and, although many were spared, North Carolina had an EF-3 tornado that killed at least 2 people! SPC was right in issuing the Tornado watch as the dynamics were there!

Now the first front has passed and many who say 70+ will only see the 50s and 40s today! Another front will pass through tomorrow and drop most places into the 40's the rest of the week! yes! 40s! There could be some snow showers Monday Night east of the mountains, but western facing slopes will have enough snow for winter storm warning and advisories! being a snow lover, just makes me want to go see it!

As the week progresses temps will fluctuate from lower to higher 40s north, upper 40s to mid 50s south. In the Mountains temps will never really rise to 40 or above. A system will come through Monday night and could cause some flurries east of the mountains, but it does not look widespread. another such episode could occur Thursday evening. Overall, east of the mountains, it should be dry!

It will be windy today and tomorrow and likely Friday.

What does it look like Thanksgiving week? Likely, a cool week. It looks like we could have a break and then maybe more colder air, and possibly stormier, to start off December!

All for now!

Severe weather possible this afternoon!

With a strong cold front, warm weather and strong dynamics there is a possibility of severe storms this afternoon. High winds and heavy rains are the likely scenario with the chance of isolated tornadoes! This will be especially true east of I-95!

Colder air is on the way as well! More on that later!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Good rains to break for 24 hours! Then rain and thunder. Then colder! Snow flurries possuble Monday morning north!

Good amount of rain has come through. Another round is on the way with a front tommorrw night into Saturday. Warm conditions and a strong front will mean a few storms could be severe! Colder Sunday. A cold front may have enough moisture and cold air to bring snow showers to the areas north of fredericksburg!
Cold and windy the rest of the day Monday! Cold temps (mainly 40s and even 30s)through Thursday!

Again, there are hints at some precipitation late next week.

All for now!
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Wet, warm, then cold!

The storm system coming through over the next several days will bring quite a lot of wet weather. The first wave will come through in the next 24 hours. Showers will be possible friday and more rain friday night into saturday. Temps will warm friday into the 60s for most. Saturday near 60 north.

 We then begin sunny days but a steady decline in temoeratures. Next wednesday many could see highs only in the 30s.

The cold looks to hold for at least several days at this point. It looks dry, but there could be a shot at light precip next week. Some models hint at more than that, but it is just way too far out to tell.

All for now.
--------------------------
Sent from my BlackBerry Wireless Device

Better chance of rain as a coastal bring rains. Increasing signs of cold!

Looks like the area will continue a bit below average with a good chance of rain Thursday into Saturday. Warmer temps will be pumped up as a primary low up in Canada spawns a coastal storm.

After the storm finally clears this coming weekend, a very significant storm looks to form next week. I see a good chance of a real soaking rain and then the first Arctic outbreak of the season could come!

All for now!

Just a heads up on possible cold outbreak next week!

Some data is now coming in to line that shows next week could REALLY turn colder. I had hinted at this in previous posts, but just seeing more signs!

50s pretty much the rule this week. Rain chances Thursday and Friday

Just a few degrees below average temperatures expected most of the week. Closer to 60 in the south. It will be coolest (Lower 50s north) on Tuesday. Rain chances will increase Thursday into Friday. It does not appear that the temperatures will cool down after this system moves through. Another larger storm may develop next week and drop the temperatures.
 
Not much more to Add. Hurricane Paloma has weakened to a tropical storm. No other tropical activity at this time.

All for now

Paloma Strengthens more!

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL THEN STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Snow amounts in South Dakota

THIS TABLE LISTS THE REPORTS BY SNOW AMOUNT...AND MAY NOT
NECESSARILY BE THE FINAL STORM TOTALS.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

 INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
 ------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
  45.70   2 NE DEADWOOD            SD  LAWRENCE         0345 PM
                 STORM TOTAL. 35 INCHES ON THE GROUND. 4.25
                 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
 43.60   2 NE DEADWOOD            SD  LAWRENCE         1030 AM
                  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4.04 INCHES.
 24.00   7 E REDIG                SD  HARDING          0111 PM
                 VISIBILITY HAS BEEN 60-100 YDS SINCE 600 PM
                 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
  24.00   8 S DEADWOOD             SD  LAWRENCE         0930 AM
                 DRIFTS 5 FEET DEEP.
 20.00   3 SE DEERFIELD           SD  PENNINGTON       0933 AM
 19.00   8 W DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH   SD  LAWRENCE         0935 AM
                  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 1.85 INCHES. VISIBILITY
                 BELOW 1/4 MILE.
 18.00   RED OWL                  SD  MEADE            0200 PM
                 6 TO 7 FOOT DRIFTS. VISIBILITY 100 FEET.
  16.00   DOWNTOWN STURGIS         SD  MEADE            0955 AM
                 DRIFTS UP TO 6 FEET DEEP. VISIBILITY LESS
                 THAN 1/4 MILE.
 13.00   DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH       SD  LAWRENCE         0933 AM
                  VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
 12.50   DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH       SD  LAWRENCE         0750 AM
                 DRIFTS 6 FEET HIGH. 35-40 MPH WINDS.
                 VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
  12.00   9 W JEWEL CAVE           SD  CUSTER           0245 PM
                 12+ INCHES OF SNOW WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN
                 100 FEET. 71.9 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED
                 OVERNIGHT.
 12.00   8 WNW USTA               SD  PERKINS          1230 PM
                  VISIBILITY WAS BELOW 1/4 THIS MORNING. NOW AT
                 1/2 MILE.
 12.00   NEWELL                   SD  BUTTE            0959 AM
                 VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
 12.00   23 NE NEWELL             SD  BUTTE            0954 AM
                  DRIFTS 5 TO 6 FEET. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
                 MILE.
 10.00   4 SE FOLSOM              SD  CUSTER           0230 PM
                 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
                  BETWEEN ZERO AND 1/8 MILE ALL DAY.
 10.00   6 W WANBLEE              SD  JACKSON          0222 PM
                 VISIBILITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNDER 1/4 MILE
                 SINCE THIS MORNING.
  10.00   13 W LODGEPOLE           SD  PERKINS          1000 AM
                 VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
 10.00   1 E RALPH                SD  HARDING          0939 AM
                 DRIFTS 8 TO 10 FEET HIGH. VISIBILITY LESS
                  THAN 1/4 MILE.
 10.00   13 WSW LEMMON            SD  PERKINS          0800 AM
                 COCORAHS
  8.00   15 NNW ALVA              WY  CROOK            0212 PM
  8.00   2 SE COLONY              WY  CROOK            0205 PM
                  VISIBILITY IS NOW AT 1 MILE. VISIBILITY
                 DIPPED BELOW 1/4 MILE AROUND 500 PM
                 WEDNESDAY...AND WAS STILL AT 1/4 MILE AT 800
                 AM THIS MORNING.
  8.00   9 N BOX ELDER            SD  MEADE            1200 PM
                  ESTIMATED BETWEEN 6 TO 10 INCHES. ZERO
                 VISIBILITY.
  8.00   5 ESE DOWNTOWN RAPID CI  SD  PENNINGTON       0830 AM
  7.00   19 SSE REVA              SD  PERKINS          0945 AM
                  DRIFTS 6 TO 7 FEET. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
                 MILE.
  7.00   OPAL                     SD  MEADE            0916 AM
                 DRIFTS 3 FEET HIGH. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
                  MILE.
  3.00   3 SSE MOORCROFT          WY  CROOK            0925 AM
  1.50   7 SE ROZET               WY  CAMPBELL         1045 AM
                 SNOW HAS STOPPED AND VISIBILITY IS GOOD.

 $$

Totals in North Dakota Blizzard

000
NWUS53 KFGF 071954
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
154 PM CST FRI NOV 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
 ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       ESMOND                  48.03N 99.76W
11/07/2008  E12.0 INCH       BENSON             ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       8 S KNOX                48.23N 99.69W
11/07/2008  E12.0 INCH       BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       MADDOCK                 47.96N 99.53W
 11/07/2008  E6.0 INCH        BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       4 E LEEDS               48.29N 99.35W
11/07/2008  E6.0 INCH        BENSON             ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       3 N MUNICH              48.71N 98.83W
11/07/2008  E8.0 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       LANGDON                 48.76N 98.37W
 11/07/2008  M8.0 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       2 S DEVILS LAKE         48.08N 98.87W
11/07/2008  M2.0 INCH        RAMSEY             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER
 
            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       CANDO                   48.49N 99.20W
11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        TOWNER             ND   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET. POWER OUTAGES
             IN THE EGELAND AND ROCKLAKE AREAS.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       HANSBORO                48.95N 99.38W
11/07/2008  M4.0 INCH        TOWNER             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
             RAIN.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WALHALLA                48.92N 97.92W
11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        PEMBINA            ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     SNOW             CAVALIER                48.80N 97.62W
 11/07/2008  M1.0 INCH        PEMBINA            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     SNOW             2 S LEROY               48.89N 97.75W
11/07/2008  E2.0 INCH        PEMBINA            ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     SLEET            PEKIN                   47.79N 98.33W
11/07/2008  E0.25 INCH       NELSON             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE QUARTER INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION
 
0118 PM     SNOW             LAKOTA                  48.04N 98.35W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        NELSON             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       DEVILS LAKE             48.11N 98.87W
 11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        RAMSEY             ND   PUBLIC

0118 PM     SNOW             LANKIN                  48.31N 97.92W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        WALSH              ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.
 
0118 PM     SNOW             4 N PARK RIVER          48.45N 97.74W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        WALSH              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       MINNEWAUKAN             48.07N 99.25W
 11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       5 NE SARLES             49.00N 98.92W
11/07/2008  E6.0 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   CO-OP OBSERVER
 
0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       STARKWEATHER            48.45N 98.88W
11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        RAMSEY             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       NEW ROCKFORD            47.68N 99.14W
 11/07/2008  E5.0 INCH        EDDY               ND   PUBLIC

0118 PM     SNOW             2 W SUTTON              47.40N 98.48W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.
 
0118 PM     SNOW             WIMBLEDON               47.17N 98.46W
11/07/2008  E1.0 INCH        BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET

0118 PM     SNOW             CHURCHS FERRY           48.27N 99.19W
 11/07/2008  E3.0 INCH        RAMSEY             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET

0118 PM     SNOW             7 N GRAFTON             48.52N 97.40W
11/07/2008  E2.0 INCH        WALSH              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER
 
            STORM TOTAL.

0118 PM     SLEET            5 N NIAGARA             48.07N 97.87W
11/07/2008  E0.25 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

            TRACE OF SNOW.

0118 PM     SNOW             PEMBINA                 48.97N 97.25W
 11/07/2008  M1.0 INCH        PEMBINA            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       NEKOMA                  48.58N 98.38W
11/07/2008  E4.0 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE. ICE COVERING
            TREES WITH BRANCHES DOWN.

0118 PM     HEAVY SNOW       BISBEE                  48.63N 99.38W
11/07/2008  E12.0 INCH       TOWNER             ND   PUBLIC
 
            STORM TOTAL

0118 PM     SNOW             HAVANA                  45.95N 97.62W
11/07/2008  E0.0 INCH        SARGENT            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TRACE OF SNOW

0118 PM     SNOW             VALLEY CITY             46.92N 98.01W
 11/07/2008  M0.0 INCH        BARNES             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TRACE OF SNOW

HURR PALOMA Public Advisory 13

Latest on Paloma

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS PALOMA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
TAKES AIM AT CUBA...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND HOLGUIN AND
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM
...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER LANDFALL.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM CAYMAN BRAC THIS
MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 17 TO 23 FEET...ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER LITTLE CAYMAN...CAYMAN BRAC...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
GRAND CAYMAN.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM EST POSITION...19.9 N...79.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I am back. And working on doing this daily again! Cooler air on the way- Rain - and then maybe really colder!

First: I am back. I want to make this a part of my life for me! I need something to break teh monotony of the day to day and I like Weather.

Second: The Forecast:
The front that extended from the Low that dumped the serious snow in ND and SD is swinging through. Showers have ended for areas west of the immediate coastal areas. It is headed through now.

The system will usher in some cooler air for the first part of the week! Then the models are all over the place. It looks like late in the week could become wuite wet with a low headed up the Appalachians. That could also bring much colder air down for the following week. So cool 40's and 50's through Wednesday.. some warming and then maybe some big rains. The next 24 hours should see clearing occur and temps pretty much in the 50s and night time getting back inti the 30 to 40 degree range, around 50 Southeast.

Longer Term: The colder air that may get unleashed next weekend may be REALLY cold. It bears some watching.

Tropics sould be done, but Paloma is turning at 140 mph winds! Amazing storm!

All for now!

Getting back on track after Hanna Flooding! More heavy rains possible later this week!

I have been really busy as usual. At the height of Tropical action I was in Florida. Of course, Hanna hit and caused flooding in my house which sat for 6 days until we got home. In less that 24 hours I had to turn around and head to Phoenix AZ and came back and now I am watching the water in the forecast and see a potential BIG event later this week! We do not need more water, but I do need to know if the things we did to avoid the water will work. We lost some stuff, but it could have been a lot worse!

Time to get back into the forecasts! -Tropical Madness

What an active time we have in the tropics. My hope is that Gustav wil not gain any strength again! He came down from a peak of 150 mph when he crossed Cuba. That being said, he is still very powerful system and he is going to come in west of New Orleans. He will still be powerful and my hope is that teh surge is not going too bad. My gut says, no matter what, New Orleans will be in bad shape!

I will start being more vigilent in my forum http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1499.0

Now, Hanna! TS Hanna is starting to show a threat to the east coast! This could be a threat later next week. You can find more on Hanna here: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1500.0

That being said, the Eastern part of teh US is about to experience a heat wave whic will include 90s again for our region. That ridge is the same one that is pushing Gustav to move teh way he is. So look for a return to summer like conditions especially starting Tuesday. Today and tommorrow look nice!

Of note, the tropics look like they have 2 more disturbnces that could become storms in the next few days.

All for now!

Severe Storms likely today

A disturbance will move through the region today and cause storms which could be severe. Very heavy rains, hail, and high winds, and hail are the biggest threats. There could be some isolated tornadoes, especially in the east. Stay tuned to weather outlets for watches or warnings! All for now Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Nice day on tap- Storms possible tomorrow

Beautiful weather will be on tap today! Highs in the low mid 80s and low humidity.

Tomorrow will see a potential storm complex that could cause training of storms and flooding rains for northern areas and isolated severe storms.

All for now!

Severe weather possible this afternoon and evening

Severe weather is a strong possibility later this afternoon and evening. Hail and damaging winds are the biggest threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. The good news is that this is the beginning of a weather shift and very nice conditions are becoming more likely for this weekend! Stay tuned to your weather outlets for watches and/or warnings. All for now! Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3