Windy day ahead

Wind Advisories are up for a large part of the region Morning showers
will give way to increasing winds and decreasing clouds. Temps in the
upper 60s up to nid 70s.

Cooler temps for the weekend and beyond much cooler!

Tropics have Henri ( pronounced ahn-ree) this MAY play a role in the
longer term.

All for now!

--
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Coldest air of the season this weekend into Monday

Cold air will pay us a visit. Could see 50s for highs in many places!

More to come

--
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Cool evening - Bit of rain NC and SW VA - Little tropical storm Grace? - Bigger rain?- Long Term Cold - Winter?

Temps will cool down into the 40s and 50s tonight for most. Clouds and an increase in a chance for rain looks likely in SW VA and North Carolina. Virginia will mainly see clouds but some rain will be possible in Southern Virginia. This will be especially true tomorrow.

Temps will be in the 70 to 80 degree range. More widespread rain chances will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again Friday night into Saturday. As noted before, much cooler air looks to follow the system this Friday and highs for many may be the 50s next week with frosts and freezes possible.

On a similar note, there could be quite a bit more rain than what is indicated if certain events pan out the way they could. I will update if that occurs, but will leave this alone for now!


Tropics: A wild very small system north of the Azores looks very tropical and was named as I was typing this up. Tropical storm grace with winds estimated at 65 MPH. She is likely at her peak already and is REALLY small!

Another bloc of tropical convection will also need some monitoring the next few days.

So more winter outlooks:

First off in my last discussion I mentioned that the El Nino would not be as much of a factor this year for a favorable colder winter scenario. It ill be present mind you, which I think I misspoke on last time.

Second factor.. Cold water off Pacific NW Coast. I do not like it, but I would be wrong thinking it is a lock all winter. these things can change and I would not put stock in it for another month or so. But, if it hangs around, I also would not expect as cold of a winter as the Pacific Jet Stream would be in an unfavorable position. WAY too early to tell how this will play out.

Snow cover I will continue to watch and will definitely expand this week!

All for now!

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Somewhat cool-Rain Wed-Rain Poss Saturday - Long Term COLD?

First off, today will be one of the best weather days of the fall so far! Temps will be generally in the 70 to 75 degree range! Always a lot to do in fall with Fall festivals and the like (we love Cox Farms here in Northern Virginia http://www.coxfarms.com/ ) and I am sure many others know of places to visit! Cool nights will continue with daytime highs 70 to 80 for most of the region (70 north, near 80 south) through the week! Wednesday looks like the next best day to see some rain showers and we will have to see what takes shape exactly here. A strong front will cross the country and may set the stage for some severe weather as well. 70 to 80 degree temps will continue to next Saturday when yet another cold front will cross the region. Behind this front we may see the coldest intrusion we have seen this year! Highs may be in the 50s for some and the first frosts and freezes could hit the mountains and up near the PA/MD border northward.

Around the country, the Rockies will see their first true snow storm of the season, and the far south could see another bout of extremely heavy rains (not good for them).

Tropics look pretty quite right now. Will have to watch for a system about mid way through the Atlantic Basin, but not sure it will amount to much as of now.

All for now.

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Rain chances have decreased - Some clouds - Foggy start

Looks like the rain chances have ended and we should see a variably cloudy day with highs in the 70s. With so much humidity we start off with some fog and an isolated afternoon storm cannot be ruled out. Sunday should be very sunny with highs in the mid and upper 70s. Temps will stay about the same through Tuesday. We should see some more rain chances starting Tuesday Night into Wednesday but temps remain the same.

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All for now.

Jimmy

Another cold night. Warmer Friday. Rainy Saturday

It will be another very cool to cold night with temps in the 30s in
the mountains, low to mid 40s north, and upper 40s and low 50s south.
Winds turn southerly tomorrow and temps will range from the low 70s
south to low 80s south. Clouds will increase. More clouds Saturday
with showers possible and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe
Saturday, especially if sun can heat things up. 70s and maybe some 80s
Saturday too.

Temps fall back to low and mid 70s north and upper 70s south starting
Sunday with sunny skies. Tuesday will see more clouds and rain chances
again by Wednesday.

Tropics now have an interesting tropical low being watched by HPC.

All for now.

--
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Cool day - some showers - Saturday Rain -More seasonable through the weekend

Cool air aloft will aid in producing showers today that are a result of warming sunshine and an upper level disturbance. Nothing too long and, if you get a shower, the temps will cool rapidly and then likely rebound. Temps generally in the 60s north and low 70s south. Coldest night so fr this season expected tonight. Mountain regions west of the Blue Ridge could see their first frost. Temps in the 30s out there, while low and mid 40s for many, some southern and coastal regions will see lower 50s.

On more cool day with highs again 60s to around 70 Thursday.

Temps warm to the mid and upper 70s Friday with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Friday night and Saturday look wet, maybe a few thunderstorms as well. Temps about the same Saturday and even into early next week as drying conditions set in Sunday and last until at least Tuesday.

Tropics still quiet for now and September was extremely quiet! There are hints in models that conditions may present some chances for a storm forming next week.

All for now.

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Cool day- breezy - Cool air lasts through Friday - Wet Saturday

Very cool this morning with lows in the 50s. Temps will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s today. Breezy with winds gusting into the 30s this afternoon.
Temps will be about 5 degrees cooler tomorrow with highs in the mid and upper 60s at best. Night time lows will be in the 30s in the mountains and 40s for most everyone else. Temps will get a bit warmer Thursday and be similar to today and then 70s Friday. A front and low pressure will then move through the area Saturday and bring more rain to the region for Saturday.

Tropics remain quiet for now but signals are there for another potential system some time next week.

All for now

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Cooler air on the way - breezy!

Nice and cool autumn morning! Highs today will reach the lower and
middle 80s south and around 80 north. A cold front will also pass
through and cause scattered showers and storms. Some storms could have
gusty winds. Temps will then really cool down. Highs in the north will
be 65 to 70 through Friday and temps in the south will be 70 to 75.
Lows will be cool! Low to mid 40s north tonight and mid and upper 40s
the rest of the week. 50 to 55 for the south. Things look dry after
today for the rest of the week.

Of note, today and tomorrow will ber very breezy!

All for now.

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Rain ends for a day - more tomorrow and then dry the rest of the week

Rain has ended and clearing should commence and today will end sunny with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.

Tomorrow a front will come through and some showers and maybe some thunderstorms. Temps will again be in the 70s and low and mid 80s.

Cooler air will come in after the front and send temps down about 5 to degrees and much cooler air will come tomorrow.

Drier conditions will continue through the rest of the week.

Temps will continue to be in the upper 60s and the mid 70s.

Tropics have calmed again and nothing on the horizon.

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All for  now!

Heavy rains tonight - Gradual Clearing tomorrow - especially west - more rains Monday - Some thoughts on winter!

Rains have been heavy which is bad for SW VA and Western NC as some flooding has kicked up again. Rains will start to decrease, but will be slow to do some. Some rains will continue to be heavy at times for the eastern region in the morning and some thunderstorms will also be possible east of I-95.

Monday, a front will come through and drop temps from the 70s North and Low to mid 80s south (which we will see tomorrow and the next day) to just 60s north and low and mid 70s south. The Upper 60s and low to mid 70s should then persist with drier days through Friday!

What of winter?
I said I would start to look at factors that could help predict the upcoming winter and the first is too early to tell. The snow pack.. We will need to watch this up until about Thanksgiving before I get a sense of the possible tell tale on the snow and cold for the region.

As of now, the forecasts I have seen are calling for a warmer than normal winter and below normal snow. I think it is a bit early to make the call but there are some hints that I am noticing on why. The biggest is the lack of a moderate El Nino which looked like it may make its presence known.. predictions have slackened on it so that too is something to note.

Other things that will help include SSTs and also the patterns we see this fall. I have been a bit encouraged by seeing the precip and some cold intrusions along the Eastern seaboard (being the snow lover I am) but nothing is totally there on a pattern yet.

All for now!!

Quite a bit of rain this morning - cooler 60s and low 70s - some clearing then more rain tomorrow

A front has progressed through a lot of the area and is along the VA/NC border this morning. A plume of moisture overrode the front and resulted in widespread showers throughout the state of VA. These should decrease as the day goes on due to drier air works into the region from the north. An organized area of Low pressure will come through the region tomorrow and bring a good soaking rain, especially across central VA and NC. Areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rain from the storm.

The Low lifts away Sunday so things will slowly dry out until another system pushes through Monday afternoon with a few more showers. Drier weather will then return.

Temps will likely be cooler than first thought with 60s to near 70 north, in the low and mid 70s south.

Tomorrow will be very cool with 60s (low 60s north around 70 south) tomorrow.

Temps will be in the 70s Sunday and Monday and a little cooler (upper 60s to lower 70s) Tuesday. A warmer Wednesday with highs back in the mid and upper 70s.

 

Warm day ahead of fall weekend

Tomorrow will see clouds increasing again but temps remaining in the
70s for most. Rain chances will be on the increase over time from west
and the south. Rain will be present in WV and NC and SW VA. It will
eventually over spread the whole region Saturday into Sunday.

Cool 60s to low 70s Saturday should warm again starting Sunday and
early next week.

All for now!

--
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HAPPY FALL everyone

--
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Another nice day for Many - SW VA and NC sit in clouds/showers

It is going to be pretty nice for most of VA today, but clouds will be on the increase in clouds and SW VA and Western NC is seeing showers.
Clouds continue to increase area wide and showers will be slowly increasing in coverage tomorrow. Shower chances then stick around all week even a chance of some Thunder Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will actually warm towards middle week and be around 80 or even the lower 80s.

Of note, a system in the middle of the Atlantic does have some organization and could form into a tropical system the next several days.

All for now.

Nice weather for Virginia, the south is staying cloudy! More rain chances return Monday

Today began a clearing for most of Virginia and down to the North Carolina border. North Carolina will stay cloudy with rain chances straight through the weekend and into next week. Temps will be in the 70s and even some 60s where clouds are thick and rain occurs.

There is now something to watch in the Atlantic again as a tropical wave becomes a bit better organized.

Not a lot more to say! I am working on some additional updates to the web site this weekend and will keep you updated.

All for now!

Light rain and drizzle next 48 hours - Weekend looking better for Virginia!

70s with increased chances of rain through the day. After a concern of a locking wet period we now look like Northern regions could just experience rain today, tomorrow and part of Friday but the trend is now there for a dry yet cooler weekend for most of Virginia.  So we should see showers today, especially in the north and more widespread this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow. Friday should see a decrease in coverage and a less chance of rain in the north, but areas further south and into North Carolina could end up with rain showers straight through the weekend and into early next week.

The weekend looks cool with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. More widespread rain chances should increase again Monday.

Jimmy

A day more of sun with 80s - rain on the way

Another beautiful day today before we get a "Back door"cold front to slide off the ocean and over the area which will knock the warm 80s today to the 70s tomorrow with rain chances increasing throughout the day Wednesday and becoming likely Tomorrow night and Thursday. The rain chances will diminish some Friday and more on Saturday which could mean a drier end of the weekend.Temps will stay in the 70s.

The tropics look benign now though some forecast models hint at possible activity in the next 3 to 4 days.

Nice warm 2 days - rain to return

The weather will be very nice today and tomorrow! Mid 80s will be the
rule. Unfortunately a "back door" cold front will move into the area
tomorrow night and will bring cooler 70s with rain chances the rest of
the week, even Saturday at this point!

Tropics have settled down as Fred showed a burst of activity yesterday
that has died out.

Not much more to report for a Monday!

--
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Nice day - Now Rain possible Wednesday- and beyond??

Nice seasonal 80s today as we head into a week of less clouds and nicer weather after the pesky low has finally departed. The next chance of precip will be Wednesday as yet another similar situation starts Wednesday due to a High over the Northeast and a potential interaction of a cut off low. The end of the week is an unwritten story due to the uncertainty of the ways that the systems will affect the area. I am not optimistic.So, enjoy the warmer days before we may enter another cloudy and cool period.

All for now!
 
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Nicer weather on the way! Many saw it today! More tomorrow!

The weather stayed cool, breezy in the north today, and even showery in Maryland. Temps stay in the 60s and lower 70s. Many other areas broke into sunshine and much nice temperatures. This better weather should overspread the whole area and it will be nice until Friday when rain could return.

Of note, Fred has dissipated and the tropics are now calm again.

This last slow moving Nor'easter was a pain to deal with. I thought it would rain many days in Northern Virginia and it did not. Rain did hit the eastern shore and the Outer banks and Eastern North Carolina had a ton of rain as well. I am sorry to those in that region as this was significant!

All for now!

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Cloudy and cool for areas of Northern VA and MD - Clearing south

Where clouds persist today temps will only be around 70 to 75. If the sun is out, expect low 80s in your area. 80 to 85 degrees looks likely tomorrow and a drying trend with temps in the 80 to 85 degrees range. The drying looks to stay most of the week.

All for now!

Cool and Wet North and Eastern areas - nice west and south

Quite a bit of rain falling along the coast and in Northern Virginia and Maryland. This will continue today and slowly subside over the next 24 hours becoming less later today. I do suspect some local flooding is occurring along the Delmarva and that may be an issue.

The Low slowly departs on Saturday and will leave drier air finally and a warmer.

Areas not seeing rain, will likely see sun today and highs around 80 (Along Mountains and Southern areas). Cool 60s for others.

A dry an seasonal forecast for the early part of the week.

All for now.
 

Wet forecast will subside Saturday! Fred could be a major Hurricane soon

Cool and damp! Highs 70s to around 80 in some places. Rain chances will not be great until later today, tonight, and tomorrow.
This is a bit tricky of a forecast. Mountain areas up to I-95 will not see a great amount of rain. The Eastern shore and coastal regions could see very heavy rains especially later today and tomorrow.Thunder on the coast could very easily be possible. The Easterly flow will increase over the next 24 hours. Areas to the west of the Low off the coast will see a good chance of rain and some heavy later today. As the Low moves westward and the High in New England strengthens more rains are forecast to push west. Rains in Northern VA and Maryland could get heavy tomorrow as well.

I would suspect flood watches o\along the coast and possible further inland tomorrow.

The system will slowly lift out and slow drying will occur Starting Friday and finally truly arriving Saturday.

Fred is up to 105 mile per hour winds. Looks like he will head to sea. All for now!
 

Fred was born last night - Rainy day - Cool

Highs will be in the 70s today with quite a bit of showers.All this is due to the low coming up the East Coast and High pressure to the North East spreading rains inland. Showery weather will persist through Thursday and even into Friday. Today will be more uniform rains east of the mountains and somewhat heavy on the coast. Today will be the best chance of rain for the week as the low off the east coast will shift Northeastward and more out to sea. Persistent easterly winds will not let the chance of showers stop however all week!

Fred was named late last night and is packing winds at 50 mph. He has re-formed further south than his original thought to be center but he will likely curve into colder waters in the next few days. He could easily be at Hurricane strength by tonight or tomorrow morning.

All for now!

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London weather - Fred looking more likely

Rain chances will continue to increase area wide, but especially along the coastal plain east of I-95. This is in response to a trough to the west and a slow moving low off the Carolina coast. Rain chances will be somewhat less after today and tonight, but persist all week. Temps will pretty much be in the mid 70s to some low 80s.

The Tropical disturbance off the African coast has been upgraded to likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. He still looks very healthy. The system will likely curve north as all models show and be a "Fish Storm" as they are referred as.

All for now!

Changes! A little better chance of rain sooner - Tropics may get Fred

Well, when I took some time this evening to do a bit more analysis I saw several things I missed.
First, West Virginia is getting quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some will spill into far western and southwestern Virginia.

Second, with the onshore flow, several showers and storms hit the Delmarva today and the Eastern Shore. This will persist!

Last, the system just off Africa could be Fred if it holds.. but he will likely be a fish storm!

So the easterly flow and a Cold Air Damming episode will set up and make the week pretty cool and cloudy with drizzle and light rain at night, and showers possible every day. This will be especially true in the Mountains with the up slope and the coastal plains with showers coming off the ocean. Of note, as the low off the SC coast slowly moves north, areas to the west and just to its north could see quite a bit of rain and even some severe weather is possible. Boating interests should take note as the persistent flow off the ocean and the gradient from this low and the High to the north will make the seas rough. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/marine/


The week will see persistent East and Northeast winds and with the low approaching from the south , Southeastern Virginia and Eastern North Carolina could see quite a bit of rain.

Tracking 96L he looked pretty well together and the NHC has it currently as a moderate chance of a tropical system in the next 48 hours!

I will have some updates in the morning, but a showery and cool forecast is upon us.

All for now!!

Nice day for some, but rain southwest and southeast- all slowly turn to clouds - light rain

We will have another nice day, but clouds will start to filter out the sun as the area is going under easterly winds. The questions on the future of the weather is how much the Low off the East coast, as it drifts north and how close it is to the coast. We will have to see. I do suspect the mountains will see more clouds and showers in the next few days. I do think the coast will also see a cloud deck come onshore and then sending the area into a cooler pattern. There is a chance that it could get rather full of drizzle starting Tuesday, but light rain showers could be present tomorrow later in the day straight through Thursday.

Southwestern Virginia and Western North Carolina as well as far eastern North Carolina could see rain, and much of the west and east are in clouds.

Tropics Remain calm.

What will the winter hold? I do not know yet, but there are some interesting things that are showing up that make me think this could be a stormy and snowy one for many areas. More coming on this, and this year I WILL post a winter weather outlook sometime later in October or possibly early November.

All is quiet! Even the tropics

This is a quiet weather day for the Mid Atlantic area and the eastern
US for the most part. The tropics have calmed and we are just looking
at seasonable temps in the 80s! You really cannot ask for much better.

Tropics have 2 areas of some fire up but nothing much to speak about
as conditions are not favorable for development.

So it is Aeration and Seeding time so I will do a plug for my buddy's
Aeration company because he is a great friend and will do a top notch
job! http://theaerationcorps.com
Seriously, a great thing to do this time of year and he is one of the
most quality guys you will ever find!

All for now!

--
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Bit warm today - but nice - Maybe a shower or two Monday

Today will be a bit warmer than I first had thought we would see this weekend, but that is good for the last pool weekend of the summer.
We will continue pretty much dry. Monday could have some showers especially in the mountains. The rest of the week looks pretty dry, but Thursday and Friday a front will approach, but does not looks strong. Some showers could occur then.

Other than this, pretty much we will have seasonal temperatures.

Tropics: Tropics have calmed. there is a disturbance west of the Cape Verde that is showing a medium potential for possible tropical formation. As of now, I am not thinking much will occur.

Of note, Josh Morgerman of http://icyclone.com went and witnessed (chased) Hurricane Jimena when she came ashore on the Baja of California.. His posts at the Eastern Us Wx Forum are worth a read!
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=204934&st=465

Please get out and enjoy the weekend!

Jimmy

Beautiful upper 70s and low 80s - De\ry forecast - Erika posing more of an East Coast Threat

Another delightful day with the area seeing temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The low to mid 80s on temperatures looks to persist through the Labor Day weekend with dry weather!

Erika is not well organized but producing impressive convection! The cloud tops were extremely cold last night. She appears to have reformed her center and latest guidance is putting her further into  threatening zone for an East Coast Hit. As of now, she does not look like she will be able to reach Hurricane status so a heavy rain producing storm is the threat I am seeing. FL, GA, SC, and NC should be taking note of her forecast. I suspect South Carolina or North Carolina could see her hit, with GA not too far out of the question. FL is a threat, a but a turn up the East Coast seems more probable at this time.

On the other coast, Baja is getting slammed by Jimena> she is not the seriously strong 155mph storm she was, but will be a tough storm no matter what packing 105 mph winds this morning. The Eastern US WX board has one member who is out in it http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=204934. Also, msnbc article from this morning http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32653657/ns/weather/

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All for now!

40s! How about that for cool! Erika was born - possible East Coast threat - longer term a bit uncertain!

40s tonight and maybe 30s in the mountains of West Virginia! Tomorrow will start a warming trend with 70s and low 80s for most area. Then 80s return to the region except the mountains by Thursday.Seasonal temps in the 80s will continue through the weekend with a pretty dry streak. The models have backed off a bit from another warm surge next week as new models are showing a strong low in Eastern Canada funneling somewhat cooler air over us. Things are in flux due to this.

Tropics: Erika has been named in the Caribbean and I believe that the East coast could be at risk for at least a close call next week. Most likely region would be the Carolina Coast. If models change an the warmer air idea resurfaces along the East coast, we should watch the system closer.Of note, this evening she is exploding with convection and strengthening. She would be stronger if all circulation would like up properly, but this has been an issue for her for several days.

Sorry for the delays in posting! I was sick and then had to get caught up on work. I am not completely caught up, but wanted to post! I expect to be back on track the next several days as we watch Erika.

All for now!

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Email launching by weekend!

All for now!

Nicer weather north - South and SE VA to see some rains!

Cooler weather is slowly filtering in. The Front that came through parts of the area is slowing down, so southern Virginia and NC are still a bit warm today, while Northern Virginia will see drier and nicer weather. The questions for the early part of the week is how far north and west the rain will be able to make it from the front that will be stalled along the coast. Overall, much cooler air will be here during the time with highs in the low and mid 70s through Tuesday. It starts to warm some Wednesday to near 80 in the south and then 80s most areas the rest of the week. Rain chances will be off and on for the southern half of Virginia and most of North Carolina.

Tropics again look interesting. Invest 94L has really become well organized overnight and will now likely become the next tropical depression of the season. This one is east of the Lesser Antilles and heading West Northwestward. If this continues to organize with its current position, it could end up being the next Hurricane as well due to its location and favorable conditions.

All for now.

Jimmy
 

Steamy days to be replaced by cooler weather - Some rain to contend with

Danny was absorbed into the upper low that was responsible for much rainfall in many parts of the area yesterday. Today has been very warm and still very steamy! We will see a front make it through part of the area but stall along teh coast and Southeastern Virginia. This will mean much cooler temps, but, unfortunately we will see chances of rain from it.

It may be a dry Sunday and Monday for the northern third of the region, while most of Southeastern VA and eastern NC will see an ongoing chance of rain.Rain chances will increase overnight Monday through Wednesday as waves of low pressure ride up and along the front. Towards Thursday drier conditions will return. Cool 70s, even some 60s will dominate this week after Sunday! Temps slowly warm towards next weekend!

Although many did not see too much flooding, Manchester Maryland saw nearly 6 and 7 inches of rain. I believed more was on the way, but the consolidation of the low and Danny helped concentrate rains along the coast.

The next potential system is Invest 94L. I will watch. We also cannot help but remember Katrina coming ashore in the Gulf 4 years ago. Someone posted the NWS discusssion on this and I thought I would share again.

Here it was:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


All for now!

FLOODING CONCERNS GROWING

A very large swath of rain is moving towards the Virginia piedmont from the NC area. This looks potentially very bad based on the soaked grounds!

I am getting very concerned!

Brief - Flood watches - cooler next week- Danny falling apart

We will see on and off chance of rain today. Due to locally heavy rains a flood watch is up for a few counties in Northern VA and Central Maryland where some flood warnings have been issued! Rain chances increase this afternoon. More showery weather will persist tonight through Sunday. A cold front sweeps a stalled front along the east coast out Sunday night and cooler and drier air follows.

Danny is not doing well and could be downgraded if he does not get his act together. He will have a small opportunity to strengthen and may just turn into a regular low within the next day or so.

I am sick so updates will be less often unless I see it necessary!

All for now!
 

One more hot day- Unsettled weekend - Cooler next week

Th front that cam through the area was too weak to dislodge the warm air so we have another hot day with temps again near 90 or in the lower 90s south. As a reinforcement of moisture from the ocean occurs due to a push of cooler air down the east coast, temps will settle the next several days in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Rain! We will have a lot of chances of rain over the next several days. Showers could be locally heavy with a large amount of moisture pushing up from the south and off the ocean as part of the squeeze of the approaching Danny and frontal/storm system to the west. Although storms will be possible, local soaking rain showers seem more likely. With that in mind some localized flooding is not out of the question. Rain will be influenced by Danny, but how much is hard to determine. Best scenario now shows the system staying off shore and tightening the flow off the ocean which will provide some breezes, but nothing too substantial. The ocean will be rough so beach goers will not be too happy!
As the storm from the west makes it eastward it will be moved along by a front that should pass later Sunday into early Monday. And then temps go unseasonably cool with highs staying the 70s to low 80s. Some mountains could see 40s for lows next week. The drier and cooler air looks to stay present all week, though the coolest air looks Tuesday into Wednesday!

Danny has been forming and re-forming its center the last 24 hours. He may be able to strengthen to Hurricane status and then become a formidable gale center as he moves up the east coast.

I expect a few smaller updates possible as more information on Danny becomes available.

All for now!

Hot day - Cooling down - A bit wet this weekend

90s today, cooling to 80s north and still low 90s south tomorrow, and then low to mid 80s north to about 90 South Friday. The forecast is pretty straight forward today and tomorrow.A front will slowly progress southward to the region and begin to cool things a bit tomorrow. By late in the Day, with winds off the ocean, showers and storms could occur especially towards evening and into the night.

Friday looks to get increasingly humid and rain chances will be higher. Then we have the amplifying trough to the west and potentially tropical storm Danny to the east putting the squeeze on the area. I would suspect we see rain chances on and off through Sunday. This could include heavy rains east of 95 with the tropical system, and other pockets of heavy rains elsewhere. Temps will be fairly cool with highs around 80 in the north to the mid and possibly upper 80s south.

When a front makes it through Sunday night into Monday, the rain chances will decrease and a cool autumn like air mass will push temps to eh 70s.

I am going to do more analysis on the systems this weekend and try and get a better handle on rain chances. We definitely need to watch the tropics and we could see more heavy rains where we do not need them.

All for now!

Tropical Storm Danny Looking more likely

The National Hurricane Center has increased the likelihood of the system off the east coast being upgraded to a tropical storm in the next 48 hours! This is Currently Invest 92L http://bit.ly/3cnZw

Tropical Site: http://bit.ly/5FOcq

Warm to Hot - Then cooler and may be very wet!

Though the humidity will be lower today we will see temps go to the upper 80s to around 90 today. Temps will be comfortable again tonight and then hot tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s!

Thursday will see a cold front pass through the region and start to cool the north, and then the southern areas Friday.

This weekend still looks like it could be rainy! It is hard to get the details now but the interaction of a frontal system and a possible tropical development could mean quite a bit of rain, especially along and east of I-95.

The weekend could also see temps in the upper 70s in the north and low and mid 80s south.

More to come, but all for now!

Hot tomorrow and Wed - wet weekend looking possible

After the humidity and summer pattern the last 2 weeks we got a break yesterday, today, and will, to an extent, tomorrow. That being said, the temps do rise tomorrow and especially Wednesday before a front come though Thursday morning and send temperatures down.

The unfortunate news is a multi-faceted set up this weekend that could mean more heavy rains.i

The players:
1. Trough that comes through Thursday leaves a "weakness" along the Eastern Seaboard.
2. Trough digging further west of the East coast will bring warmer and moist air north to the region.
3. A Tropical Low near the Bahamas looks to move towards the region and couple with this. Will it be a Tropical Storm or Hurricane? Hard to tell.
4. Impulses of energy riding through the trough!

1+2+3+4= a chance of a lot of rain!

We will need to watch the evolution of this for the next several days!

All for now!

Storms Southern 2/3rds of region! Otherwise a cooler day

Overnight a swath of showers and storms dumped a lot of rain across North Carolina and the Southeastern half of Virginia. That storm complex is pushing across the eastern shore. Other scattered storms remain across the southern half of Virginia.This activity could persist today with scattered to isolated storminess as the old frontal boundary is having a hard time departing the region. Temps will generally be in the mid 80s.

The weather turns drier until later this week towards the weekend. Temps will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s Wednesday and then fall off. Friday may see some areas only in the 70s.

Rain chances appear to come back next weekend . There even appears to be a chance of a tropical system forming that could affect the weather with increased rain chances. This is just preliminary as it is showing on some models.

Bill has become extra tropical this morning. He has had a long life and wild one at that. The tropics appear quiet now, but as I said we may need to watch later this week.

All for now!

Heavy rains leaving coast - More storms possible tomorrow!

Heavy rains have pushed to the coast and will be exiting in the next few hours. Unfortunately the front will move through so slow that it will not clear the area until tomorrow night. This means more chances of rain and storms tomorrow, though the coverage will not be quite as large!
The weather settles and 80s will dominate the week. I am a bit concerned of more storms mid week, but all for now.

Heavy Rain Showers and storms but cooler - Nicer weather coming!

Some regions had quite a bit of rain the last 24 hours with 2.26 measured for yesterday at Dulles Airport, and more fell overnight in the same area. North central Virginia and up into Maryland has a flood watch posted due to the heavier rains that occurred. There will be more rain today, and then quite a nice stretch of weather looks to visit! As a matter of fact, many areas may not see another 90 degree day again this year! But for now, this afternoon could feature more storms, some will have heavy rainfall.

If you are a member on the forum you can visit http://forum.midatlanticweather.com/index.php?topic=1638.0 and see some of yesterday's mammatus from the storms that later caused tornado warnings in Maryland.

Tomorrow could still see an isolated storm, but chances are small! Temps will be feeling "cool" with highs in the lower and mid 80s and humidity levels falling.

Then we hit a nice dry stretch with highs in the low to mid 80s with upper 80s still likely in the southern areas. Temps turn even cooler with highs in the upper 70s in the north for Friday, continued mid and upper 80s across the south.

Also, High surf continues for the coast, and will slowly go down after today. Bill is much weaker and will cause some winds to New England and likely hit the Canadian maratimes!

Beyond that, the tropcs are calm!

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Severe Weather and Heavy Rains

There will be the risk of Severe storms and very heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening as a front slowly crosses the area and stalls along the I-95 corridor. Please stay tuned to radio and weather outlets for watches and or warnings.

 

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Steamy, heavy rains,some severe

Temps near 90 with a very moist atmosphere will mean conditions will
be favorable for heavy rain showers and storms today and tomorrow. The
heat will be on its way out starting tomorrow with many areas seeing
highs in the low to mid 80s verses the upper 80s and low 90s. Temps
will then stay in the low and mid 80s until at least Wednesday in the
north, some upper 80s in the south. The biggest difference will be the
lack of humidity which will be a welcome change.

In the meantime, synoptic features may develop the next 24 hours to
bring heavy rains to the Northern VA, central MD, Eastern PA, Western
NJ, on up through Eastern New England. Rains may be as high as 3 to 6
inches in what is known as a PRE. This is a feature that happens far
away from a Hurricane, but definitely is tied to the Hurricane's
influence on the storm pattern. If this does occur it appears to favor
areas northeast of the Northern VA and MD area, but may begin there.

Bill will impact the coast starting later today with high waves. He is
expected to start moving more to the north later today and tonight.
There is a definite deteriation in Bill's appearance this morning and
he has likely peaked. It does concern me that the new England Coast
and especially the Canadian Maratimes could see direct impacts from
the storm. It will be watched closely the next 24 to 48 hours to see
if he behaves as models say he will.

As mentioned yesterday, Bill will clear the tropics and things settle
as much they were before last weekend's tropical onslaught!

All for now!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Steamy with a good chance of rain!

The weather is almost a carbon copy forecast. Hot temps around 90 with
showers and storms a good bet this afternoon. Due to clouds many will
only see the upper 80s for temps tomorrow. Some variables will make it
possible for severe weather tomorrow. Saturday has a somewhat better
chance of severe storms with a front approaching. Highs will be in
the upper 80s. Then a break! Temps to cool by about 5 degrees, but the
bigger story will be the lower humidity! That will be the case until
Wednesday when more showers and storms are possible with the next
front.

Bill lost a little of his punch as maximum winds came down to 125 mph,
but he is still a monster! His approach towards the east coast will
definitely have a high wave impact! Some interaction with the
approaching front could also enhance precipitation, but I will need to
take a closer look.

The tropics settle down for now after Bill.

All for now.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Hot and sticky! Rains from Claudette! Bill - Not looking like a threat

90s today with an increase in moisture and showers and storms this afternoon. With so much moisture, localized flooding rains are possible. This will be possible again tomorrow afternoon!

A front Friday will bring the possibility of severe weather Friday. Thursday looks fairly dry for now!

Bill will likely re-curve out to sea, but he bears some watching. High waves will definitely be an issue as he gets closer to the east coast.

Due to family matters I will not be posting until maybe tomorrow night! stay tuned to weather and news outlets as heavy rain storms could mean flooding!

All for now!

Hot 90s!Ana|Bill|Claudette!

Carbon Copy forecast of Sunday for today-90s and muggy! Storm threats will begin later tomorrow, especially along the Mountains and west. A better chance will come Wednesday through Friday. Temps will remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s!

Tropics:
Ana: Tropical depression and may not be able to hang on. Latest tracks from models now show it making it into the eastern Gulf, but it still may be nothing more than a tropical wave at that time. Not impressed at this time

Hurricane Bill: Bill became the first Hurricane of the season this morning. He looks impressive and will likely to continue to steadily strengthen. It is fairly likely that he will become a major storm (winds greater than 110 mph) in the next few days. He bears watching, but may become a system that curves back out to sea.. It is a bit tough to tell and the East coast needs to keep watch! If he misses the east coast, the effects of high winds and surf will be felt!

Tropical Storm Claudette (soon to be a Tropical Depression): She came on shore in the Florida panhandle (sorry for the miss there) She will be dying out the next few days and will eventually provide some moisture and energy to the front headed eastward to our region.

All for now!

90s to continue! Bill to become Hurricane! Claudette comes on shore overnight!

90s will rule the next few days through Wednesday and then we have a LOT to watch.

A strong cold front will be marching towards the east coast and arrive Wednesday. The system will stall or move slowly eastward. Meanwhile it will have a lot of moisture from the Tropical Depression now in the Gulf Coast, possibly the leftovers of Tropical Storm Ana (although she is having a hard time holding together), and possibly of what happens with Bill. Bill is looking like he COULD become a major hurricane! He could get entrained into that front along the east coast and pose a threat from the Mid Atlantic up through New England!

This is an interesting week with a lot of interesting weather later in the week!

Expectations:

Ana: She has been downgraded to a Depression and could just a tropical wave by tomorrow. Will need to watch the Gulf at this point for a re-strengthening.It is possible then she could hit the western Gulf at this point. She will be tough to determine track and whether she is worth watching if she dissipates as she looks like she is doing!

Bill: Looks like the First Hurricane (Likely tonight) and likely a Major one (Category 3 or Higher!) in the next 3 days. Concern will be if he interacts with the strong front heading towards the east coast later this week! Could mean a hit on the east coast, or at least a serious rain threat!

Claudette: She is now up to 50 MPH winds. She is looking like she will now go WEST of the Florida Peninsula!. I see it strengthening now and she will likely have winds in the 60 to 65 MPH range. She will dissipate over land, but the moisture will energize the front moving across the country
 

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All for now!

Ana|Bill|&TD4|Hot 90s|Heavy Rain Threatens later this week

90s will rule the next few days. Tropical Depression 4 formed overnight in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As it continues to organize we will likely have Claudette later today.

In the meantime, we have hot conditions through Wednesday and then we have a LOT to watch.

A strong cold front will be marching towards the east coast and arrive Wednesday. The system will stall or move slowly eastward. Meanwhile it will have a lot of moisture from the Tropical Depression now in the Gulf Coast, possibly the leftovers of Tropical Storm Ana (although she is having a hard time holding together), and possibly of what happens with Bill. Bill is looking like he COULD become a major hurricane! He could get entrained into that front along the east coast and pose a threat from the Mid Atlantic up through New England!

This is an interesting week with a lot of interesting weather later in the week!

Expectations:

Ana: She may be downgraded to a Depression later today, or even just a tropical Wave. Will need to watch the Gulf at this point for a re-strengthening.It is possible then she could hit the western Gulf at this point. She will be tough to determine track and whether she is worth watching if she dissipates as she looks like she is doing!

Bill: Looks like the First Hurricane and likely a Major one (Category 3 or Higher!). Concern will be if he interacts with the strong front heading towards the east coast later this week! Could mean a hit on the east coast, or at least a serious rain threat!

TD 4 (Claudette): Could be just storm strength when is comes inland over the Florida Penninsula. She will be a slow mover and also may be absorbed into the strong front coming towards the east coast.

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All for now!

3rd Tropical system now possible in the Gulf

Not only do I see the Threat of Ana for the FL area and Gulf, Bill for the East Coast, but a new threat for the Gulf with the tropical system forming over the southeast Gulf of Mexico.

 

 This will need to be monitored.

 

Of note, Ana continues weak due to shear

 

Bill is still organizing and is slow to strengthen.

 

The low in the Gulf looks interesting!

 

All for now!

 

Sister Ana and Brother Bill!

Tropics have 2 storms now! Quick thoughts are Ana now a FL threat and
Gulf threat! Bill could end up absorbed as an eastern seaboard heavy
rain storm! That is after Bill becomes the first Hurricane as he seems
healthier than his fast moving sister.

We just stay Hot and muggy with daytime temps around 90 or a little
higher. Storm threats start Wednesday and will potentially increase
based on Ana, Bill, another semi-tropical feature in the Gulf and a
strong front! Get ready for some busy weather ahead!

All for now!

--
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Warm & muggy-Upper 80s-Lower 90s|Tropical Storm Ana|&TD#3|

The hazy, warm, and humid conditions that are typical this time of year will continue through next week. A front will come close by and cause an increase in chance of rain and storm Wednesday through Friday.

The big stories next week will be Tropical Storm Ana and newly classified Tropical Depression 3.
Ana: As of this morning she is not as well organized as she was overnight. The storm looks to threaten Florida towards Thursday. She could make it to Hurricane strength, but, as of now she is forecast to be a strong Tropical Storm.

Tropical Depression 3 looks like it will become Tropical Storm within the next day. This one will track over favorable area for strengthening and also may make it to Hurricane strength and could be sizable at that. If named it will be called Bill.

To see the latest you can visit the tropical center at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/tropical/tropics.htm

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Tropical storm Ana has arrived

The first tropic storm of the season. She is likely to threaten the SE US.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

--
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TD2 has made a comeback! This could pose a threat to the SE US coast by the end of next week!

Tropics heat up

Possibility of 2 tropical depressions or even storms in the next day
to day and a half!

I will try and post more thohghts later but I can see these posing a
threat to the east coast later next week!

More info to come in the tropical forum post along with tracking information.

Summer like weekend ahead!

Jimmy

--
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Muggy warm upper 80s lower 90s through Wednesday-Stormy SE Coast

Upper 80s and lower 90s will be the temps through next Wednesday when a front approaches and will likely knock temperatures back a few degrees.

For most it will be drier time, but today and tomorrow the coastal regions of SE VA and Eastern NC may see heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. The heavy rains could result in localized flooding.Isolated storms cannot be ruled out anywhere from I-95 eastward and in some elevated areas.

Tropics:
TD2 is a remnant low and continues to churn over the Central Atlantic.
The next system is looking likely now to become Ana. The evolution of the system is a classic growth and I expect a Tropical depression to form later today followed by storm classification tomorrow. Based  on models alone, Ana could end up at Hurricane strength as she approaches the western Caribbean. That being said, this has not been a year where storms easily stay together and form into storms. We will see.

All for now!

Mid 80s-Isolated Strom-TD2 has not made it to Storm strength

Rain chances are fairly low for most of VA, until you get to the NC/VA border. Some storms will occur today across the state, but more likely the further towards NC you are. NC looks fairly active wit showers and storms! Highs today will be in the mid 80s north and upper 80s south.

A repeat possible tomorrow of today's forecast and then a drier forecast starting Saturday and going through Tuesday. Temps will warm to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Sunday and stay there through Tuesday. Next chance of precip after Saturday will be Wednesday.

Tropics:
Tropical Depression 2 will need to hang on to whatever is has left to remain a possible storm.
Another system just off Africa looks like it may be able to strengthen and will need to be monitored.

All for now!

Humid 80s Today-Some rain for many-TD2 almost Ana

A disturbance will cross the area today into tomorrow with rain and embedded thunder for the southern 2/3rds of the area. Some locally heavy rains are definitely possible. Scattered showers with a few storms in the Northern regions.

The sticky air mass does not look like it will go anywhere anytime soon. Humid and warm conditions look like they will persist through Tuesday with highs generally in the mid and upper 80s. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible every day.

In the tropics, Tropical Depression 2 has shown a lot of persistence with its thunderstorm activity, but it has been east of the center of circulation. It is on the verge of tropical storm strength and I suspect will make it there today. Models show a possibility of it making it to just under Hurricane strength and then weakening.

Another tropical system has just emerged off the African coast. This system could also form into a tropical system in the next few days.

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I am days away from new email weather alerts!

All for now!

Storms on the increase

Parts of South central and southwest virginia are seeing heavy showers
and storms. Severe storms are possible as that rain marches eastward.
Other storms are possible and could produce heavy enough rains for
some localized flooding. A few flood warnings have been issued. Stay
tuned to Radio and news outlets for watches and/or warnings.

Even cooler weather is likely tomorrow with more showers and storms.

All for now, more later.

Jimmy

--
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Hot 90s-Some Storms-2nd Tropical Depression Forms

90s feeling close to 100 today. Scattered afternoon storms, some heavy rains producers and they could persist into the evening. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s north, mid and upper 90s south.

Temps 85 to 90 tomorrow with scattered showers and storms northern regions, and a good chance of rain across the southern half of VA and NC. Rain chances will continue across southern Virginia and North Carolina Thursday before becoming more scattered Through the weekend. The Northern half of Virginia will be dry for the most part except a possible shower or storm Saturday. Highs region wide will be in the low an mid 80s.

The tropics get active:
The second tropical depression of the Hurricane Season formed overnight from the wave that emerged a few days ago off the African coast. It appeared to have almost dies out and then flared up last night. As of now it looks like the first storm of the season may form out of this.Get more information at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?config=tropimap&forecast=tropsystems&year=2009&region=NT&hwvstormid=2&alt=tropsystempage&hwvmetric=

A few more systems bear some watching, especially now in the Caribbean that appears to have also flared up. Another wave is just emerging off Africa as well.

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I am days away from new email weather alerts!

All for now!

Scattered storms cap a hot day! More tomorrow - less heat

Today was by far the hottest day of the year for many! I saw heat index values in the 100 to 105 range as common with some as high as 110. Tomorrow we will continue hot weather with more scattered storms possible. Temps will be about 5 to 8 degrees cooler. Around 90 in the north, but still mid 90s and some upper 90s south.

Temps will come down further as the front comes through by about another 5 to 8 degrees. And then another 5 degrees or so on Thursday. Thursday will be a lot cooler as a front gets hung up over southern VA and NC and scattered storms will continue through the entire period. Temps will remain in the mid 80s.

The tropics are a "little" active. The wave off of Africa started losing a lot of its convection today, but the rotation remains. Another wave is poised to come off the coast. Of note, long term forecast models do show some threat of storminess off the East coast, but that is all model thought as of now. If things did come together as some models say, this could also be a big rain producer for the east coast.

Longer term there is also the likelihood of another surge in heat next week. We will have to watch and see!

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I am days away from new email weather alerts!

All for now!

HOT with 100 degree heat lasts 1 day north, 2 days south!!

Temps will be only around the low to mid 90s tomorrow in the north, after a very Hot Monday! Moisture and a chance of showers and storms will knock the heat back tomorrow for everyone, but, due to humidity it will still feel very hot. It now appears that a front will actually clear the northern part of the area and knock temp to the mid 80s by Wednesday. The slow movement of the front will mean showers and storms possible for the southern parts of the area the rest of the week and this will also knock temps back. Of note, for Northern regions temps will step from near 100 today, to around 90 tomorrow, mid 80s Wednesday, and MAYBE just 80 for Thursday!

The Southern regions will go from 100 to 105 today to 95 tomorrow, and then the upper 80s the rest of the week.

So get ready for the HEAT today, but it will start to get better tomorrow!

More to come!

Yep hazy, hot, and humid! The 3 H's will be the order for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, before a cool down by Thursday. So stay cool. Also I noticed from the NHC, that something could be forming off the African coast. So something to keep an eye on :)

Luke

Heat has arrived and humidity! 100 degree Heat! Tropics?

If you cannot tell, the moisture in the air increased dramatically overnight! We will see Mid 90s (it will feel like at least 100) in the north and temps approaching 100 (it will feel like 105) in the southern half or the forecast area.

100 degrees likely for most areas away from the coast and east of the mountains tomorrow! I suspect we will see heat advisories for tomorrow and the air quality will be somewhat poor!

Tuesday will see a begin in the dip in the temps for northern half of the area (low to mid 90s) and then Wednesday 80s. Southern half will still be near 100 degrees and then 90s Wednesday.

Rain chances increase Tuesday in the north and then area wide Wednesday. We will see More chances of rain Thursday and Friday which will knock most temperatures back to the mid and upper 80s.
 
In weather news, Taiwan has seen as much as 100" of rain from now tropical storm Morakot! http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=1026197&lang=eng_news

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25750796

The tropical low off Africa is holding up for now, but many have not made it past 2 days! We will see, but it looks like a depression may be ready to form!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

From the NHC:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN
 AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.  THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A
 MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?forecast=tropinvesttrack&eventnum=99&region=NT&year=2009
 

Due to some showers flared up by the warm front the warmth that we will see will be a bit delayed. So today we will see a few showers and maybe a couple of storms. The showers and storms will scattered and not concentrated. But, as I said, here comes the heat tomorrow with highs approaching 100 in many places. That continues Monday for all. Tuesday, some slackening of the heat in the North (90s will still be prevalent) Wednesday some storm possibilities increase and the temps push back to about 90 in the north, still 90s in the south. Highs will then move to the mid and upper 80s Thursday and Friday with a chance of storms. For the first time in a while a very strong and rotating tropical wave just emerged from Africa. It bears watching, but many systems have just died out after reaching the coast so I am not thinking it will become a tropical system, but it may! I attached it above. In the near future I will be updating alerts and email options for these discussions and severe alerts! All part of the changes and expansion of Mid Atlantic Weather!

HOT weather starts today!

High Temps will reach 90s to as high as 100 Sunday and Monday - Isolated storms possible Saturday.

Hot air to continue until Wednesday.

Sorry, I am tired, so all for now!

Pleasant 80s today|Heating up Tomorrow|Heat wave through Wed

80s with lower humidity today will be short lived. Temps from 90 to 95 tomorrow and the true Hazy, Hot, and Humid mid and upper 90s will be present starting Sunday and lasting until Wednesday for the Northern areas and until Thursday for the South, and Probably Friday for NC. Some storms may be present tomorrow late afternoon and overnight. The next chance of storms will accompany a front Wednesday and Thursday which will be the leading edge of more seasonable 80s.

Felicia is still a strong category 3 Hurricane in the Pacific. The Atlantic Hurricane season remains low!

Cool evening&Friday|Hot Sat-Wed

Rains ending east if I-95 and a cool night. Temps low to mid 80s for
tommorrow, heating up to upper 80s and the low to mid 90s for most
starting Sunday and lasting until wednesday. A chance of a storm late
Saturday into Sunday early morning. Slightly cooler by Wednesday in
the north.

All for now.

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Wet&Cool day-Nice Friday-Heat wave early next week

Front passed&Stalled-a low formed on front- Rainy most the day-Highs 70s and low 80s today. The showers will continue today and slowly end from west to east this evening. Some heavier rain elements will be present so please stay tuned to local weather and news outlets concerning possible localized flooding.
Friday looks rather pleasant with most highs stay in the low and mid 80s. A resurgence of heat and humidity will arrive Saturday with some storms possible.
Sunday - Wednesday will be some of the hottest weather of the Summer. Areas in Southern Virginia and North Carolina will see highs hit triple digits. The northern areas will see mid to upper 90s. Tuesday into Wednesday the northern regions will see the heat subside a bit while the Southern half of VA and NC continue to bake!

Tropics - Still looking quiet in the Atlantic - The Pacific has a powerful Category 4 Hurricane that will weaken as its remnant move towards the Hawaiian Islands over the next several days. To see more on Hurricane Felicia check out http://bit.ly/5FOcq

All for now!

So Far-no rain North-SW VA and VA/NC Border getting hit!

So Far-no rain North-SW VA and VA/NC Border getting hit! - Rain may pick up later in the north as a low pressure moves along a stalled front. I foresee some flood and heavy rain threat. Storms in the southern half of VA may go severe. Rain should persist tomorrow with another wave of Low pressure. The rain will concentrate to the south, but be prevalent most areas east of the mountains early tomorrow.

Cooler temps Thursday and Friday will be replaced by the hazy hot and humid conditions of summer this weekend! That hot pattern looks to persist through Tuesday. Afternoon showers and storms will be isolated and mainly in the higher elevations and along the coast.

Louisville Kentucky suffered a huge flash flood yesterday when 6 inches of rain fell in about an hour an 15 minutes! http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090805/NEWS/90805006

Unfortunately more rain moved through today.

All for now!

Hot day with Thunder-Cooler Tomorrow & Friday

Thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Rain may be heavy - Cooler Thursday with highs in the 80s and lower humidity. Nice for Friday and then a return to heat through Monday.

Rushed morning so all for now!

Summer heat with highs 90s for most through Monday- Storms Wed and Thurs - Hot weekend

Summer heat with highs 90s for most through Monday- Storms Wed and Thurs - Hot weekend

After a relatively cool summer (some areas north of the region rarely saw temps above 85) a much warmer set up has started and will persist through Monday. Highs, for most, will be in the 90 to 95 range, with somewhat cooler temps along the coast and the mountains. Heat indexes will be close to 100 for the southern regions and hitting 105 for parts of the Carolina's. Coastal induced storms are possible as well as elevation driven storms today. The Far Southwestern part of the region could see more numerous storms as leftovers from a mid western cluster of storms moves through the area. Most areas will stay dry east of the mountains.

A frontal system will introduce a better chance of showers and storms tomorrow and the threat stays somewhat possible Thursday and Friday but not as probable.

The weekend into Monday just look Hazy, Hot, and Humid with highs remaining the the low and mid 90s except the coast and the mountains where upper 80s will be prevalent.

The dog days of summer have truly arrived!

A fairly strong tropical wave is located between the Caribbean and African coasts. This is the first wave in a long while to have convection still present after leaving Africa and getting beyond the cooler waters just off the west coast of Africa. Bears some watching.

All for now!

Summer like week-HOT weekend

Continued hazy hot and humid. Weekend could see temps in the mid and
upper 90s if models continue trends. Thunderstorm threat highest
Wednesday-storms possible Thursday and Friday but chances are not
high.

More to come.

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Week of Summer weather turning a little less hot toward...

Today starts out very humid with residual moisture out there. A sticky and hot day with highs climbing to the upper 80 up to the mid 90s across the southern areas. An isolated storm is not out of the question.
Tomorrow looks hotter, with highs in the low 90s north, and maybe some upper 90s across the southern region. It looks humid but a few storms are forecast, except maybe higher terrain.

Wednesday looks like a carbon copy of Tuesday.

Thursday will see an increase in storm possibilities and also a slightly cooler day. Highs will be more like today's, except across areas that have a lot of clouds. Friday will be similar to Thursday. Again where the clouds are thicker, lower temperatures will occur.

Next weekend, for now, looks seasonable with high in the mid 80s to low 90s.

Tropics have remained calm. the reason, from what I can tell, has been the presence of he El Nino and a colder than normal Canary current off the west coast of Africa. that colder current has been dissipating any storm complex that has emerged from Africa. Also, and increased amount of wind has been occurring off the deserts of Africa which temds to put more dust in teh atmosphere and thus reduces the number of storms.

All for now!






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Posted By midatlanticweather to Forecast Discussion at 8/03/2009 06:54:00 AM

Week of Summer weather turning a little less hot towards Friday.

Today starts out very humid with residual moisture out there. A sticky and hot day with highs climbing to the upper 80 up to the mid 90s across the southern areas. An isolated storm is not out of the question.
Tomorrow looks hotter, with highs in the low 90s north, and maybe some upper 90s across the southern region. It looks humid but a few storms are forecast, except maybe higher terrain.

Wednesday looks like a carbon copy of Tuesday.

Thursday will see an increase in storm possibilities and also a slightly cooler day. Highs will be more like today's, except across areas that have a lot of clouds. Friday will be similar to Thursday. Again where the clouds are thicker, lower temperatures will occur.

Next weekend, for now, looks seasonable with high in the mid 80s to low 90s.

Tropics have remained calm. the reason, from what I can tell, has been the presence of he El Nino and a colder than normal Canary current off the west coast of Africa. that colder current has been dissipating any storm complex that has emerged from Africa. Also, and increased amount of wind has been occurring off the deserts of Africa which temds to put more dust in teh atmosphere and thus reduces the number of storms.

All for now!

Rainy Sunday

Rain will be heavy at time. Most of Central Maryland and parts of SW Virginia are under flood watches. Later this afternoon the rain should end from west to east.

Some storms this morning did go severe and isolated severe is not out of the question.

Muggy conditions return Monday and most the week.

More to come.

summer

although weve had some warm days. it hasent been a hot summer... could that be a trend for upcoming winter? only time will tell :) now if we could only get the hurricanes going ;)

***luke***

Another Unstable day of weather! Steamy conditions continue!

As another low pressure comes through the area this afternoon, showers and storms will be on the increase. Instability will be high enough for severe storms which could include tornadoes. If you are caught in storms they will be heavy rain producers so localized flooding is possible. The storms will come to an end this evening.

The weekend will remain hot and humid. Tomorrow looks like temps up in the upper 80s to mid 90s, but without storms except maybe in the mountains. Sunday will see another disturbance move through so a better chance of storms.

The week next week is looking similar to this. Steamy with a chance of storms almost daily!

Tropics remain very calm!

Some interesting reading about anomalous high tides on the east coast ...http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/07/hightides/

And how about a picture of a 75,000 + FT thunderstorm cloud from space ... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1202973/Pictured-Spaceship-shaped-cloud-hovering-Earth-captured-astronauts.html

All for now!


 

Rough weather day ahead - Hot tomorrow - unsettled weekend

With a very moist air mass in place, the atmosphere will become unstable and produce numerous showers and storms. As the day progresses the instability will get to a point in which severe storms will be possible. The likely risk from the severe storms will be high winds, but isolated tornadoes and some hail could also occur. Heavy rains could result in localized flooding so please be careful.

Eventually the activity will die down tonight. Tomorrow will feature a lot of sun and possibly the hottest day of the year, with mid 90s and high humidity temps will feel in the low 100s for many.

Friday will see another good chance of showers and storms.

Unsettled conditions will continue both Saturday and Sunday with more storms possible, but activity will mainly be afternoons and scattered. Temps will remain in the mid and upper 80s.

This should continue into Monday.

All for now!

Heavy rain on the way

Tomorrow will see numerous showers and storms with heavy rainfalls.
Some severe is possible as well as flash flooding. More to come. ..

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Severe storms this afternoon and evening

The atmosphere is prime this afternoon for potentially severe storms.
Biggest threat will be high winds but an isolated tornado is possible.

All for now

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ELNINO IS BACK!!

ELNINO IS BACK, SO LOOK FOR MORE EAST COAST STORMS THIS WINTER, AND THEY COULD BE POWERFUL. HISTORICALLY WEVE HAD SOME OF OUR BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS IN ELNINO YEARS. I POSTED A ARTICLE IN THE FORECAST SECTION OF THE FORUM.

THIS IS HURRICANE SEASON, SO LETS FIRE THIS GROUP UP :)

***LUKE***

Beautiful day! Most of the week is looking dry

After a rainy day in the southern part of the region, a nice sunny day is going to be in store for most, except the southernmost regions. Highs will be around 80 north and close to 90 in the south. Dry conditions will remain this week with a increase in humidity and warmer conditions being felt this coming weekend. his coming weekend typical Summer like pattern with afternoon showers and storms a good bet. Longer term we should see another dry pattern. No brutal heat in the near future..just uncomfortable conditions this coming weekend.

Rain has been widespread south of Fredericksburg to Harrisonburg Virginia

Heavier rain through the central part of the state from Roanoke to Richmond. Rain has been staying very spotty in the north. Expect this to continue with some thunderstorms possible in the far southern part of Virginia and North Carolina.

Sunny conditions to return Monday and last all week More humudity will return by Friday.

All for now!

Showers just entering SW VA. Most places east of the Mountains will see good fireworks!

Awesome day for most people in the Mid Atlantic! Evening fireworks look like they will go off without a hitch. Tomorrow will be showery with some thunder Sourhern area, and even Severe possthile along the NC/ VA Border and south. The week ahead still looks dry. Highs Mid and upper 80s. Some Steamy and hotter conditions later this week.

All for now!

Cloudy Fourth - Rainy Sunday - Nice week ahead

We will see a pretty cloudy day on the Fourth, some rain could sneak in near day end in the southwest. As a Low passes through the southern half of the region Sunday, we should see quite a bit fo rain with even Severe weather in teh southern part of Virginia and North Carolina. As the Low moves out, a dry and nice week will take shape with highs starting a but below normal and dry. Late in the week we could see heat and humidity increase,

All for now!

Jimmy

Severe Stormsa starting to Fire across Norther VA and MD

Expect more as the evening continues. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is up for Northern VA. Maryland, An Much of Eastern PA.

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

Hot and a little humid - More humid tomorrow - Very warm weekend

Today and tomorrow should see temps at 90 to as high as 95 degrees. Winds will not be southerly but start to shift tomorrow so the humidity will increase and then afternoon storms are possible tomorrow, some could be severe.

The weekend stays warm with highs 85 to 90. Sunday will feature an increased chance of storms.

Next week will see temps move to seasonal with sunny conditions returning.

All for now.

Nice dry stretch of weather!

After weeks of relentless rain chances, we have a change this week! Dry conditions with Temperatures pretty much hovering in the 80s to lower 90s.

Northern areas (Frederickburg to Charlottesville to Chincoteague) low to mid 80s through Wednesday. Near 90 through Friday.

South, mid and Upper 80s through Wednesday, 90 - 93 degrees Thursday through Saturday.

As of now, calling for a Sunny week, but Wednesday could hold an isolated storm, and maybe a better chance of a shower or storm over Southwestern VA and North Carolina Friday.

All for now! Enjoy the weather!

Jimmy
 

Happy Father's Day - Happy Summer

A few showers may still make today a little wet. Windy conditions also. Astronomical summer begins today!

80s area wide (upper 80s south, lower 80s North)

A drier stretch until Wednesday when a few storms may be present. 80s for the most part, but low 90s possible by Wednesday in the south.

More to come!

Happy Father's Day Dads!

 

Severe weather likely this afternoon

As the sun heats up the atmosphere and a cold front moves through, strong and severe thunderstorms should form. Please stay tuned to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings!

All for now!

 

Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3

HOT weather on the way! Storminess too!

Rainy in northern Virginia and Maryland this morning! Showers and storms should clear the area later this morning making way for a very warm to hot day! Temp will soar to the mid 80s north and the Low and Mid 90s across the southern regions. Hot conditions will remain through Saturday along with rain chances as showers and storms will be possible, especially Friday Night and Saturday. Temps will be upper 80s to mid 90s across the region.

Though drier air does make it to the area, widespread 80s to low 90s seem common through mid next week, about 80 northern areas and about 90 in the southern parts of Virginia and North Carolina.


All for now

Rainy and cool today- warming tomorrow

As noted yesterrday, cool rainconditions today. A warm front will push
through the area by tomorrow morning and more humid and warm air will
follow through Saturday. Risk of showers and storms will also be
possible. Today's highs will be 60s North and some 70s South. 80s
tomorrow. Upper 80s to 90 Friday and Saturday!

Drier for Sunday.

Next week we have another chance of soaking rains.

All for now.

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Rainy south of Charlottesville to Fredericksburg and south - Cool and Cloudy north

A lot of rain had caused some flooding in Southwestern Virginia and most of Western North Carolina. Rain looks to continue in these regions while the Northern third of Virginia into Maryland will be cloudy and cool with maybe a few showers. Unseasonably cool with highs mainly in the 70s.

A repeat tomorrow on cooler conditions, but rain will make as spread further north. Highs in places will struggle out of the 60s and others low to mid 70s. Again, with higher rain amounts in the south, flooding is possible.

Summer like conditions make a return and last straight through the weekend with highs rebounding to the 80s Thursday and then mid and upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend. Humid air with afternoon storms will be possible daily.

All for now!

Meso Convective Complex across southern 2/3rds of VA

A meso convective complex (MCC) has developed over the southern 2/3rds
of Virginia. Rain will come to an end fown there a bit later today.
For nothern areas, temps will be cooler with highs in the 70s. Cooler
air for region the next few days as highs remain in the 70s and maybe
60s Wednesday, especially in the north. Moist air could mean night
time drizzle. Winds along the coast to increase and dangerous rip
tides will form. Scattered showers and isolated storm chances increase
Thursday and temps rebound to around 80

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Storms possible again today - Some severe - some with heavy rains - Not a Storm Free weekend Forecast!

Yesterday's rains occurred over the southern half of Virginia and over North Carolina. Today, scattered convection will again fire across the region with some severe and heavy rain.

The weekend looks less dry, and I could kick myself as I felt that a clear weekend was not entirely possible. Unlike recent days with a high chance of storms, chances will lessen. It is typical summer time when afternoon storms could fire and thus we have a continued chance of storms.Things will finally dry out, based on current models, by Monday.

Highs will remain in the 80s through the weekend.. upper 80s south, lower 80s north. Of note, after this stalled front pushes further south, Virginians could see a much nicer few days with highs in the 70s!

A return to storms will begin Wednesday next week, area wide Thursday.

The Tropics remain quiet for now.

You can now become a fan of Mid Atlantic Weather ( http://www.facebook.com/pages/Mid-Atlantic-Weather/90520373268?ref=ts ) , follow more real time updates on twitter at http://twitter.com/midatlanticwx or even go over to MySpace at http://www.myspace.com/midatlanticweather . I will be re-launching Mid Atlantic Weather later this summer!

Severe weather and heavy rains

More Severe storms today with very heavy rains. High winds and hail the likely threat but isolated tornadoes possible. More showers and storms tomorrow before a drier weekend. Some concern for rain returning Sunday. More to come on that. Upper 70s to low 80s today and tomorrow. 80 to 85 this weekend.

All for Now
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More Severe Today! Join me on Facebook, Twitter, and MySpace

With a frontal boundary around the PA/MD border and moist unstable air, thunderstorms are a good bet across the region today. They do not look as widespread as yesterday. Today's best threat will be along and west of the mountains. I do suspect other storms will be severe as well. High winds and hail will be the biggest threat from these storms.

Tonight after midnight looks like even more rain possible. Tomorrow may be the rainiest day of the week and I suspect a Flood Watch, especially in the northern Virginia and Maryland regions as Flash Flood values are very low! To see the Precipitation outlook for the next few days: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?config=&forecast=pass&pass=qpfday&dpp=1

It is possible that the weekend will be a dry one. Less chances of storms in the North Friday.Saturday should be dry for most. Sunday will see a return to more isolated storms, especially in the south. Temperatures will be around 80 north and mid 80s south.

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All for now!

Jimmy