11/30 BRIEF! DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook!

THIS IS A QUICK UPDATE AS TIME HAS NOT ALLOWED ME TO UPDATE! RAIN WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY HEAVY. COOLER TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN WE WARM. PATTERN TO HOLD SO MY COLD AND MIX TYPE SCENARIO IS OUT! REAL CHILL THOUGHTS, ERASED FROM MY THINKING UNTIL MAYBE 2 WEEKS OR MORE FOR NOW! SO SORRY TO ALL!

 

Summary:

Negative NAO and Positive PNA pattern not likely to develop. Pattern looks locked for a while yet, and, even though there will be some chance of western (west of Blue Ridge) upslope snows Thursday, not really counting on cold to stick, but normal pattern in temps. This hangs well with my winter forecast, but totally changes what I thought would have occurred by now! Sorry to all!

 

More to come, with more time!

 

All for now!

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11/26 VA/MD/DC Weather Outlook

THE COLDER AIR BLEW IN YESTERDAY. LOOKS SHORT LIVED AS WE HEAD FOR SEASONAL TEMPS. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT, A FEW DAYS OF DRY, THEN WE COULD SEE THE FIRST REAL THREAT OF A MIX IN THE NORTH AT THE START OF ANOTHER STORM. PATTERN DOES FAVOR COOL TO COLD, AND THERE WILL BE SYSTEMS TO WATCH, BUT NOTHING TOO MUCH OUT OF THE ORDINARY!

 

Summary:

Added a new family member on Monday so life has been crazy! Things panned out somewhat as I had thought this week on my forecast, but cold air damming held temps down Monday through the end of the day Wednesday. The temps fell sharply yesterday afternoon and we are in a very cold air mass today. The flow starts southerly tomorrow which will rebound our temperatures. A front comes through tomorrow night into Sunday AM and rain is possible. Sunday will see very seasonal temperatures. Next week the nation is under the influence of two important Winter Features! A Negative NAO and a positive PNA pattern. There is one other important feature that will form, the Hudson Bay Polar vortex. This tells me few things! One, if colder air can, it may spill down the eastern seaboard with a cold air damming event that may have polar air involved! Next, the Cold air will have a harder time leaving due to some blocking caused by the negative NAO and potentially sharper troughing (more energetic and heavier precip) from a positive PNA. That being said, nothing is strong, so I do not foresee, at this time, a significant winter event, but there is some potential for at least a mix of sleet and freezing rain. I will watch!

 

 

Today: Temps: SW: 50-60 SE: 53-64 N: 45-55

Cool and plenty of Sunshine!

 

Saturday: Temps: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Increasing clouds. Slight chance of rain, especially west, late in the day

 

Sunday: Temps: SW: 60-68 SE: 60-68 N: 55-65

Increasing sunshine with temps near Normal!

 

Monday: Temps: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-63

Sunny, highs pretty close to normal!!

 

Tuesday: Temps: SW: 55-65 SE: 55-65 N: 50-60

Based on current models! Increasing clouds with a chance of rain. If we have more Cold Air Damming in place, and I am sure we will, we will need to watch what trends occur with temps.

 

Longer Term:

I am lumping the long term together! I see the chance for much cooler weather with the Negative NAO and positive PNA pattern, but right now, I think just 5-8 degrees below normal is possible after another front next Thursday.

 

All for now!

 

 

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11/20 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

7 Day Outlook: ( see summary Below)

Sunday:

Temps: SW: 60-70 N: 55-65 SE: 60-70 Some clearing, but still mostly cloudy. Some chances of rain possible in the far Southwest.

Monday:

Temps: SW: 65-75 N: 55-65 SE: 60-70 Fog burning off, rain coming to an end in far south. Partly cloudy day

Tuesday:

Temps: SW: 55-65 N: 50-60 SE: 55-60 Increasing Chances of rain from Southwest to Northeast. Heavy at times Tuesday night

Wednesday:

Temps: SW: 60 -70 N: 55-65 SE: 60-70 Rain, heavy at times, especially early and in any convection. Cold wedge east of mountains may keep some areas cool. Southeastern areas could see some Thunder later in the day

Thursday:

Temps: SW: 50-60 N: 50-60 SE: 50-60 Blustery! Temps could fall during the day. Upslope areas of western Ridges could see snow showers Thursday Night.

Friday:

Temps: SW: 46-58 N:45-55 SE: 50-60 Colder conditions. Sunny skies

Saturday:

Temps: SW: 54-60 N: 50-60 SE: 55-65 Front Approaches region. Looking fairly dry. Temps close to normal.

Sunday:

Temps: SW: 55-65 N: 50-60 SE: 55-65 Sunny. Temps still seasonal.

 

Summary:

I am trying something new with the forecast chart here! Concern will be the ability to maintain it! Weekend of a slow warm front, a disturbance on that front, and not a lot of push in the atmosphere to clear things out has made it a dreary one! Tomorrow may be somewhat better. The week will be highlighted by a fairly vigorous storm system and cold front that will drop temps back below normal for a few days. The big chill down seems only delayed and not gone as most of the nation takes a more wintry look to it after the passage of this big system!

 

NOW.. based on the many things occurring in my family, the next time I post MAY not be until Wednesday or Thursday! There is the potential that severe weather could be around parts of the area Wednesday so please stay alert.

 

Long Term:

 I do see the turn to colder and stormy conditions, but maybe not as drastic a turn as I had thought. Still, a week after Thanksgiving we may be shivering around here at night!

 

All for now!

 

"There is always a 100% chance of weather!"

Jimmy Chaplin

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

Legal Disclaimer

The above is a derived forecast and gives MY ideas on what I think the weather will be. NEVER user this information to make life or property saving decisions.

Please rely on official weather forecasts by the National Weather Service for these types of decisions.

 

 

 

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11/19 VA/MD/DC Weather Outlooks

MILD DAYS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO COLDER TEMPS. SHOWERY WEEKEND WILL ACTUALLY START TODAY. COULD SEE BETTER RAINS ON SUNDAY. BIGGER RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM EVENT FOR WESNESDAY! PATTERN STARTS TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEKEND, AND THEREAFTER COLDER TEMPS WILL BE REINFORCED.

 

Summary:

Boy have I been busy! Looks like rain is a better bet over the weekend, starting as early tomorrow. Rain will likely be the best on Sunday. Then a day or so of drying. Wednesday into Thursday larger system takes hold. I can definitely say rain! Maybe even thunderstorms and severe weather is possible.

 

This is the best I can do for now! Will try and update tomorrow. Shower chances will increase. Highs will be 60-75

 

All for now.

 

"There is always a 100% chance of weather!"

 

Jimmy Chaplin

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

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11/18 VA/MD/DC Weather Outlook

A LITTLE DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS. WEEKEND COULD BE SHOWERY AT TIMES. LONG TERM TURN TO COLD WILL LIKELY BE PRECEDED BY A WEATHER EVENT OF EITHER BIG STORM OR JUST RAIN IN THE SOUTH. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SNOW, BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SOME, OR A MIX. COOLER AIR WILL TURN COLDER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEN, WE WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING NEW WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED!

 

Summary:

A disturbance is riding through the area as we speak and has touched off a few showers through the central part of the state. Thursday should be partly cloudy and temps 55-70 statewide. There may be some areas cracking the lower 70s Friday before clouds increase with some chances for showers. I do not know completely how to read this weekend into Monday. I can say a front will move through, we will start seeing colder temps by Monday. That front will not move out of the Carolinas and will likely have a wave of low pressure form along it. Now, what happens after that is still an enigma, but speed is the name of the game. If the Low Pressure can, it may link with northern energy and phase into a nice storm. The Storm Track would possibly right on top of us and cause quite a deluge. If the energy and low pressure miss each other, rain is still in the offing, but not the deluge, and more likely southern areas. I am just going to throw this in. The type of situation, to me, sounds like what we will have to watch all winter. If the Northern and Southern branches of the jet phase, we get the best chances for heavy precip and snow. If they do not, precip will be possible, especially southern areas, snow more likely, but not as heavy on the northern periphery.. So, in the no phasing possibilities next week, there ****COULD*** be a little potential for mixing in the highest terrain of the area. If phasing occurs, the track will not necessarily be conducive for any winter precipitation ( at least not for the Central Mid Atlantic! PA,NY,OH, and Northern New Englands Interior and highlands, watch out!) but the reinforcing shot of colder air after the storm will definitely get some help, and be accompanied by some cold winds. All in all, next week proves to be the changing of the seasons for a while, as the end of it will bring the colder air, and my confidence is very low for the time being on exact scenarios that will play out! Stay tuned! Accuweather noting the changes are coming here: http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=3

 

Thursday:

Temps 55-70 with partly cloudy skies.

 

Friday:

Nice temps.. 58-73 possible! Increasing clouds very late for western and southern areas.

 

Saturday:

Some showers possible. Not looking like a wash out, but still needs to be watched. Highs 55-65.

 

Sunday:

Rain chances still there, as the front slowly pushes southward. Less chances in the North, and better in the south. Highs 55-65.

 

Monday:

Cooler, especially north. Partly cloudy, with still some showers possible south, highs 52-64.

 

Tuesday into Thursday:

What will become of the southern storm. Southern areas will likely see a chance of rain, northern areas will have to watch for some rains possible. Higher terrain, will have to watch for a bit of a mix? We all may need to get ready for traveling issues if phasing is in the cards. Temps, without phasing, 48-58. With Phasing, I could see warmer temps the day befor the precip, and a raw 40-48 and heavy rain Wednesday!

 

Friday:

Colder air will arrive. Highs 44-55 look about right for now.

 

Wxrisk finally posted their Winter Outlook and cold, and potentially snowy outlook according to him! http://www.wxrisk.com/weblinks/MAPS.htm  For us, it looks like cold air is here for December, leaves briefly in January, and then comes back with serious chances for big snows in February! We will see!

 

All for now!

 

"There is always a 100% chance of weather!"

 

Jimmy Chaplin

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

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11/17 MD/VA/DC Weather Outlook

IT WAS A WEEK BEFORE WINTER (OK MAYBE A WEEK AND 2 DAYS) AND ALL THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC EVERYONE WAS STIRRING ABOUT, BUT SOON THERE WILL BE COLD AND IS THERE SNOW TO TALK ABOUT?! ALL I WILL SAY IS ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS BECAUSE IT APPEARS WINTER IS ON THE MOVE TO THE EASTERN US AND WILL SHOW UP ABOUT THANKSGIVING, OR THE DAY AFTER!!

 

Summary:

I know I am cheesy but I want to start now giving people a heads up that winter will come in next week. This week is a cake walk! Seasonal temps or a few degrees above before a warm and cold front affect the areas. Cooler air follows Tuesday through about Thanksgiving day, and then, a much stronger front looks to arrive followed by colder conditions, and yes, there are 2 things to watch next week, but nothing to really worry about..at least not yet!

 

Today through Saturday:

Like I said above. Temperatures will hover close to their norms, but may be a degree or two above or below depending on the sun. Highs 55-70. Saturday will see increasing clouds and I cannot say a stray shower will not form during the latest part of the day in the south or far west.

 

Sunday and Monday

First transition front comes through and drops temps back to their 50-60 degree range which will be 5-10 degrees below norms for some. Showers will be a good bet during Sunday and part of Monday.

 

Long Term

I have been alluding to it for days.. a change is coming and will set up winter 2004-2005. I am not thinking very cold air will get here until sometime maybe a week after the first round of cold, but a definite pattern change will be in place and if storminess comes, well, its cold!  There are even signs something else ****COULD**** get its act together next week and cause something mixed or even some snow for higher elevations.. I am not sure I buy it yet, but the pattern slowly turns and thus storminess needs more attention than it has had

 

***** NOTE: Due to a life changing family event next Monday, I shall not be available until, at the earliest, Wednesday sometime. So, if fun and games begin, please use some of the great sites I link to off of http://www.midatlanticweather.com ! I will attempt to post EARLY Sunday, but seriously, that will be it until Wednesday or MAYBE Thursday!

 

All for now!!

 

"There is always a 100% chance of weather!"

 

Jimmy Chaplin

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

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11/16 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook

WHAT A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER! IT IS EASY TO FORECAST THIS WEEK, BUT SIGNS ARE THERE THAT SAY, COME THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WINTER WILL ARRIVE.. NOT SURE PRECIPITATION WISE, BUT A PATTERN WHICH AT LEAST GIVES POTENTIAL!

Summary:

Way too easy to forecast this stretch of weather! Seasonal temps in the 55-68 degree range (50s North, 60s south). The signs are becoming fixed that we will likely see a cool down the end of next week.

Thursday though Friday:

Seasonal temps in the 55-68 degree range (50s North, 60s south).

Saturday:

Increasing clouds. Temps still 55-66.

Sunday and Monday:

Temps more like 50-65 statewide with showers possible.

Long Term:

After Monday temps will cool and a winter like pattern should set up! Situation next week will mean that I will not be able to post until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest so I am giving you a heads up that weather is a changing!

"There is always a 100% chance of weather!"

Jimmy Chaplin

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

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11/13 DC/VA/MD Weather Outlook

WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE STORM OFF THE COAST GETS CRANKING! COOL TODAY BUT A STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO ALL WEEK! NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE NEXT SUNDAY AND MAY BE FOLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS! THERE CONTINUES TO A BE HINTS THAT THANSGIVING WEEK WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A COLDER PATTERN FOR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA!

 

Summary:

The departing coastal storm will be intensifying and causing a very breezy day, but clearing skies! The temps will slowly climb to normal or slightly above by Thursday. Then we will watch for a potential real cold intrusion that may affect us sometime Thanksgiving week!

 

Since we will have sunny to partly cloudy forecast, this is a temperature forecast!

 

Today:

WINDY! Temps 40s to mid 50s.

 

Sunday:

Temps 50-64

 

Monday

55 – 68

 

Tuesday

57 – 68

 

Wednesday

58 – 68

 

Thursday

55 - 68

 

Friday:

55 - 68

 

Saturday:

55 – 68

 

Sunday

Possible Showers? 55-68

 

Long Term:

We may see the Polar Vortex form over Hudson Bay which would mean colder air will start to infiltrate the US. The NAO could go Negative and the PNA positive. This is pointing to colder conditions arriving sometime Thanksgiving week! Stay tuned!

 

All for now!

 

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11/12 MD/VA/DC Weather Outlook

WOW, THAT IS ALMOST A CLOSE CALL! NEW ENGLANDÂ’S INTERIOR SEEING ITS FIRST SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IF THINGS HAD WORKED OUT WE COULD HAVE SEEN A MIX. SOME MOUNTAINEOUS REGIOS COULD SEE SOME FLAKES AT THE VERY END. COLD WEEKEND WILL MILD UP NEXT WEEK AND BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK AFTER MONDAY. STILL SEE POTENTIAL SIGNS THAT AFTER NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL SEE COLD INFILTRATE THE COUNTRY AND I AM READING AND LOOKING AT MODELS FOR VERIFICATION.

 

Summary:

As the storm that is affecting us moves south of us today we will get a healthy 1 to 2 inch rains in the area! The storm track to our south does allow us to stay in the colder side of things, and if we were deeper into winter that could have had some serious implications on the weather. As it is, the storm will pass us and start to wrap colder air around it, which puts the far northern and western areas below the 0C degree mark (32 F) which would be interesting for them if moisture is in play. Hard to say if it will be so a few flakes or sleet pellets are not out of the question! Departing Low and temps slowly climbing next week will be the rule. Some signs that a shift in the pattern could come the last part of November, which will have to be watched!

 

Today:

More of the same! Temps will stay about where they are now, maybe a few degrees warmer in the Southern areas. 40s to low 50s.

 

Saturday:

Things will gradually clear as the day goes on. Temps may approach freezing far Northwestern areas towards morning so sleet and snowflakes could mix in.

 

Sunday through Thursday:

Yes a big range, but temps will likely mild up to 55 to 65 (few closer to 70 Wednesday and Thursday in the South) degrees, which will be about 5 degrees, either side of normal for many locations. The next chance of rain will be around next Friday.

 

Long Term:

There are some models showing a potential shift in the pattern. WxRisk did a great analysis yesterday at http://www.wxrisk.com/meteopage.html and I mentioned there were some signs of a possible Negative NAO and positive PNA pattern (both favor colder temps in the east). Nothing is a lock yet, so we have to wait and see!

 

All for now!

 

 

 

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11/11 UPDATED: VA/MD./DC Weather outlook

RAINIER LOOK NOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLDER CONITIONS WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY. THEER COULD BE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH! LONGER TERMS WE STILL SEE SOME SIGNS OF POSSIBLE COLDER CONDITIONS, EVEN A POTENTAIL FOR A NEGATIVE NAO AND POSITIVE PNA PATTERN, SO THERE ARE SIGNS THERE.

 

Summary:

Thank you to the Veterans out there who gave for us to be free! I had to update my forecast as it was not accurate so this will supercede the one I sent last night! Rain will not move in until this evening or overnight. The system responsible is rather vigorous and has thunderstorms with it that MAY affect southern Virginia. Despite this the rain shield is pretty impressive and the movement slow enough that decent rains will fall overnight and for much of tomorrow for many. The weekend still looks very cool with Saturday Night having a good shot of being the coldest night of the season for many. There are signs in some models of a linkage of the trough off the east coast and a tropical like low in the Caribbean. As Cosgrove points out in his daily weather column (Available on Weather MatrixÂ’s site which you can get to from a link under the Discussions on the Menu on http://www.midatlanticweather.com) this has a quasi feel of the perfect storm (Link explaining what occurred in the perfect storm: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/cyclones/pfctstorm91/pfctstorm.html ) except that storm had a hurricane wrap into it. Also, what this could mean is that the NAO will go negative and a possible shift to a positive NAO pattern could mean a colder shift after next week. We will see!

 

So the Revised forecast:

 

Today:

Clouds on the increase with temps between 55 and 70 degrees.

 

Tonight:

Rain will overtake us and it could be moderate to even heavy at times. Temps will fall into the 43 – 55 degree range state wide.

 

Friday:

Rain, more widespread in the morning, and more showery as the day goes on. Temps will pretty much stay where they were at the start of the day.

 

Saturday:

Very cool with highs 45-55 at best state wide, and night time temps could hit 20 degerees in parts of the area, but 25-35 seems like a pretty good bet.

 

Sunday:

Temps slightly moderate to about 5 to 7 degrees warmer than the day before.

 

Next Week:

See temps slowly rise and a possible rain event about Thursday. I will watch to see if the storm system off the East Coast becomes a factor in shifting the NAO to Negative and see if the PNA goes positive. If so, cooler conditions will come back and could stick a bit longer.

 

Of Note. The storm the next 24- 36 hours will provide snows to interior new England and will be their most significant snow so far this season.

 

All for now!

 

 

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11/11 MD/DC/VA Weather Outlook

I THINK WE HAVE ABOUT ONE WEEKEND LEFT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS(AFTER TOMORROWS NORMAL TEMP) AND THEN WE MAY SEE NORMAL TEMPS OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE FOR A BIT. SIGNS SHOW A POTENTIAL SHIFT TO COLDER PATTERN BUT I AM MORE CONVINCED THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. FIRST WE HAVE RAINS, AND THEY LOOK A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO HAVE FLAKES MIX IN FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WILL LIKELY HIT SATURDAY NIGHT!

 

Summary:

Thanks to all the new visitors. If you would like to subscribe to the midatlantic weather Yahoo Group please sign up by sending an email to mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com . I also hope you checked The WeatherBook web site! It has gone through a face lift recently as well! Anyways, today it will be seasonally mild then a cold front will come through tonight bringing a good bout of showers. Temperatures will fall tomorrow and stay about 10 to as much as 15 degrees below normal this weekend. Temperatures will plummet Saturday Night with the coldest night of the season for many!

 

Veterans Day:

Increasing clouds with shower chances increasing in the afternoon. Showers likely Tomorrow Night. As noted, temps will start falling Friday, but for the western areas that could be tomorrow night, which may mean.. Some snow could mix in for the higher elevations, but drier air will also be moving in and cut precipitation off. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s and as high as the mid 60s. Night time lows will fall to the 30s in the north and mountains and be 40s to around 50 in the south

 

Friday:

Very cool with temps possible staying put or falling. Showers will likely move out in the morning. Mountains and far north may stay in the 30s! Winds will be blowing, temps may fall statewide from 40s and 50s.

 

Saturday:

Very cool! Highs 40s and mid 50s at best. Night time lows may hit teens for parts of the north and mountains and low to mid 20s will be common. Far SE Virginia may be in the 30s.

 

Sunday:

About 5 to 7 degrees warmer than Saturday!

 

Longer Term:

A slow increase in temps. Next best chance of showers will be next Thursday. Temps seem on target for seasonal readings at that point.

 

All for now!

 

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11/10 MD/DC/VA Weather Outlook

BRRRRR! FINALLY! I FINALLY HAD TO SCRAPE MY WINDOWS! I FINALLY FELT A CHILL WORTHY OF A BIG COAT! I SEE A TREND OF AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE, BUT NOTHING THAT SAYS WE ARE STUCK IN WHAT WILL BE WINTERS PATTERN! WINTER OUTLOOK WAS POSTED! DID YOU SEE IT? Summary: Well we definitely trended cold and, though Thursday we will push above normal, we will likely stay a little below normal for the most part for a while. There is a coastal low that MAY be pulled into an upper level low that will slide through New England this weekend, and if it catches the storm could cause snow in the eastern part of New England. Not here, but cool (for a snow love like me!) to think about! The Result will be a windy time for us! Veteran’s Day is this Thursday, which also reminds me of the surprise snowstorm in 1987 that dumped some very large amounts of snow over parts of the region. I lived in Richmond and we had 4 inches! What was crazy is that the region had above normal temperatures before the event, and temps moderated and melted the snow almost as quickly as it came right after the event! I was reading all about it in the DC Weather Book which is an incredible book detailing weather in the Washington Area. I strongly recommend it as a Christmas Present for the weather or even history lover in the Family! There is quite the deal going on the Weather Book Web Site now with it being only $15!!!!! Ok, I speak with the Photographer from time to time via email and I really like his book and photography (which is also on sale on his site in his “Season’s of Washington” collection!!) so I wanted to mention his Book and photos!! We get a chance for some showers Thursday into Friday as more cold air arrives for the weekend which could be breezy based on the New England almost storm deepening out at Sea! Wednesday: Sunny, temps 50-60 (some 40s mountains) Thursday: Moderating temps to at or above seasonal norms. 55-70. Night time showers (could turn to snow showers in higher terrain) Friday: Showers end, colder temperatures return with highs low 40s to upper 50s. Saturday and Sunday: Temps will moderate towards seasonal, but will likely stay a little below normal. Long Term: Seems to be more of the same until a little later next week where we favor more moderating temperatures and could set up a wetter pattern for a bit. Please check http://www.midatlanticweather.com/ for a look at the Winter Forecast! Don’t forget about the WeatherBook and Seasons of Washington page! And please let me know if you like the new site! Email Me! All for now!

11/06 VA/MD/DC Weather Outlook

NOT TOO BAD OF A WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY SEASONAL. TEMPS GET KNOCKED DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN WARMER ON THURSDAY. THEN WE ARE BACK COOLER NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME SIGNS OF COOL AIR STICKING AROUND AND WET CONDITIONS, BUT NOTHING CONCLUSIVE. Summary: Temperatures are not as cold this weekend as I thought they may have been. Temps last night did get into the lower 30s in a few spots. Tonight should be similar but with lower winds some frost may occur. Temps will stay in the 60 to 70 degrees today and tomorrow, but we will take a real dip early next week and slowly recover by Thursday. Then another cold front will knock us back down. Today and Tomorrow: Temps will be 60 to 70 degrees in the south. Tonight, 30s will be common in the mountains and piedmont Monday: Temps get knocked down to 55-65 and Monday night, widespread frost and some freezing will be likely in the piedmont and mountains. Tuesday: Coldest day of the week! Highs my not get out of the 40s for parts of the region, and 50s will be common. Night time lows will be 20s and 30s for many again. Wednesday: Temps moderate to 55 to 65 Thursday: Warmer with highs 60 to 70 Friday: Maybe a shower and temps get knocked back down to 50 to 55 degrees! Longer Term: As mentioned we will watch and see if the cooler air actually sticks after next weekend and see if a potential east coast storm forms. Mountain snows may be involved!

11/05 MD,VA, DC Weather Outlook

THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPS MAY GET STUCK LOWER IN THE VERY LONG TERM! COLD AND WINDY TODAY WITH HIGHS 50s TO LOWER 60s AT BEST! SEASONAL WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF COOLER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROBABLY THE FIRST NIGHT OF TRUE SUB FREEZING TEMPS FOR MANY. MID WEEK WARM UP IS FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AIR TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND! AND THEN..WE MAY SEE SOME STICKING COOLER AIR!

 

Summary:

It is actually very late in the season to get our first look at possible sub freezing temperatures for areas and that will not be until Tuesday morning. I had thought we may see this tomorrow morning, but the colder air that is blowing in today will not stick around. Speaking of breezy, wind gust greater than 40 mph caused me some power issues last night! To get to the longer term trends, we see normal fluctuating temperatures which is really signifying a general changing pattern. We are headed for winter after all, and we may finally get a true feel for this not just in our Tuesday Morning lows, but also in what appears to be a Negative NAO pattern (Negative North Atlantic Oscillation: signifies colder conditions on the east coast, and potential storminess: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html ) and a positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern (also signifies colder temperatures in the Eastern US: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index.html ) If these really come to pass, weather could get a little interesting but definitely cooler or colder conditions could set up shop! This is exactly what you see in the NWS thoughts in the 6 - 10 day (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ )  and 8- 14 day (  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ ) Outlooks!  We will see.

 

Today:

Windy and cool, with highs mainly 50s with a few 60s possible in southern regions. Tonights temps will range from the low 30s (mountains and valleys) to mid 40s (Southeast)

 

Saturday and Sunday:

Temperatures will be about seasonal, 55 – 65 with some 70s possible southern areas which will actually be a bit above normal.

 

Monday:

We may see yet another day of falling temperatures, and there will be a pretty big range possible. 50s in the north to 70s in the south. Monday Night may be the first widespread Freeze and Frosts for the Mountains and Piedmont.

 

Long Term:

Tuesday temps will show highs in the 40s north and mountains and 50s south

Wednesday and Thursday will see highs moderate to normal and then another cool down next weekend! Yes, a roller coaster indeed. It will be after that weekend where the cooler temps may actually stick, but that far out could mean I am wrong!. I will say a vigorous looking storm system could affect us in some way that coming week.

 

 All for now!

 

Jimmy Chaplin

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

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