11/12 MD/VA/DC Weather Outlook

WOW, THAT IS ALMOST A CLOSE CALL! NEW ENGLANDÂ’S INTERIOR SEEING ITS FIRST SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IF THINGS HAD WORKED OUT WE COULD HAVE SEEN A MIX. SOME MOUNTAINEOUS REGIOS COULD SEE SOME FLAKES AT THE VERY END. COLD WEEKEND WILL MILD UP NEXT WEEK AND BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK AFTER MONDAY. STILL SEE POTENTIAL SIGNS THAT AFTER NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL SEE COLD INFILTRATE THE COUNTRY AND I AM READING AND LOOKING AT MODELS FOR VERIFICATION.

 

Summary:

As the storm that is affecting us moves south of us today we will get a healthy 1 to 2 inch rains in the area! The storm track to our south does allow us to stay in the colder side of things, and if we were deeper into winter that could have had some serious implications on the weather. As it is, the storm will pass us and start to wrap colder air around it, which puts the far northern and western areas below the 0C degree mark (32 F) which would be interesting for them if moisture is in play. Hard to say if it will be so a few flakes or sleet pellets are not out of the question! Departing Low and temps slowly climbing next week will be the rule. Some signs that a shift in the pattern could come the last part of November, which will have to be watched!

 

Today:

More of the same! Temps will stay about where they are now, maybe a few degrees warmer in the Southern areas. 40s to low 50s.

 

Saturday:

Things will gradually clear as the day goes on. Temps may approach freezing far Northwestern areas towards morning so sleet and snowflakes could mix in.

 

Sunday through Thursday:

Yes a big range, but temps will likely mild up to 55 to 65 (few closer to 70 Wednesday and Thursday in the South) degrees, which will be about 5 degrees, either side of normal for many locations. The next chance of rain will be around next Friday.

 

Long Term:

There are some models showing a potential shift in the pattern. WxRisk did a great analysis yesterday at http://www.wxrisk.com/meteopage.html and I mentioned there were some signs of a possible Negative NAO and positive PNA pattern (both favor colder temps in the east). Nothing is a lock yet, so we have to wait and see!

 

All for now!

 

 

 

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