Saturday, February 27, 2010

SNOW ALARMS sound - Chances of snow increasing!

Latest trends do point to snow Tuesday into Wednesday.. How big, not sure. ALL of VA and Most of central and Eastern MD and and Western Half of NC and SC! This will be a big storm - Historic in the south and major for north looks possible!

BIG STORM ON THE WAY??!

Yes next week looks interesting! You will see snow forecasts get more bullish on the storm. This MIGHT not make it huge up in Nova and Maryland but central and sw va down into NC and maybe even SC could see some snow! West SC and NE GA will! WILD WINTER IS AT IT AGAIN!!!

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Sorry for the DIRE snow prediction - I really missed bad on this one!

The outcome was much drier than I had thought! Trends were showing this yesterday and I should have completely abandoned the idea! I am sorry to all!


Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Thinking Wind is the bigger threat and Not snow

Models just keep lessening amounts. Could see that reverse later so
stay tuned as models are not always right! 40 to 60 mph winds are
possible Thursday into Friday.

--
Sent from my mobile device

NOON Thoughts

As of now my first Call:
DC - 2- 5" - Blizzard conditions MAY be met

VA:
Dulles - 2 - 4" - Blizzard conditions MAY be met
Leesburg - 1-3" - Blizzard conditions MAY be met
Fairfax - 2 - 5" North half of county/ 1-3" south! - Blizzard conditions MAY be met
Arlington - 2 - 5" - Blizzard conditions MAY be met
Richmond - 2" on grass


MD:
Baltimore - 5 - 9" - Blizzard
Bel Air - 6 - 10" - Blizzard
Columbia - 4 - 8" Blizzard

I will update LATE this evening and may have a map!

All for now!

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

BLIZZARD conditions to be met for a large part of Maryland an a little of Northern Virginia! - First Guesses on some points!

Latest Models show main threat for larger snows stay Northeast in Maryland. Could see a 1-3 inch snow in Loudoun - maybe 3 to 5" in DC - Baltimore looks like a 5 to 10 inch system to me. Still bears serious watching as the models have shifted back an forth quite a bit! Winds will howl Thursday with snow in the air! Winter is not done!

Also, light snows possible all the way down in Richmond and along coastal plains of VA as the storm passes by - General 1 - 3" possible, mainly on grass

3" puts DC at snowiest February on record!

As of now my first Guess:
DC - 3- 5" - Blizzard conditions

VA:
Dulles - 2 - 4" - Blizzard conditions
Leesburg - 1-3" - Near or Blizzard conditions
Fairfax - 3 - 5" North half of county/ 1-3" south! - Blizzard
Arlington - 3 - 5" - Blizzard
Richmond - 2" on grass


MD:
Baltimore - 6 - 10" - Blizzard
Bel Air - 7 - 12" - Blizzard
Columbia - 4 - 8" Blizzard

All the time I have for now! These are first GUESSES! This will be a tough one.

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Winter Storm Watches Posted for NOVA and MD!

More later!

--
Sent from my mobile device

BLIZZARD CONCERNS GROWING!

Models are trending more snowy Thursday.

This will be a Blizzard! More to come!


Monday, February 22, 2010

Rain today - Rain tapering overnight and some clearing - Some snow "Possible" later this week - A final big one?

Not much timer. Rain is on schedule today - This will not be a wash out of all snow.

Thursday is interesting as the whole region could see a bit of light snow activity but it could be more prominent south, if temps are cold enough. I do not see a serious threat for us. That system goes to the Northeast and becomes a HUGE system with a blizzard and feet of snow for parts of New England. Should keep us breezy and cool.

Next week a system *COULD* come up from the south and be quite the snow maker. This is all dependent on how the end of the week works out with the current system.

Sorry for the quick posts, but that is all I have for now!


Sunday, February 21, 2010

Not an easy forecast week on tap - Mild/Seasonal day ahead!

First of all, today will be downright mild and nice. It is the influence of a late Feb sun and we hit near normal temps area wide! melting is in full effect! Tomorrow we will see rain, but tomorrow night into Tuesday there is a chance that we could see a mix of precipitation back over to snow. I am not expecting accumulations. Tuesday into Wednesday looks cloudy to becoming sunny.I am not exactly certain what is going to happen Thursday. There is likely to be some storminess around and this could mean a bit of snow. There are some hints at a bigger system that could affect us that day. This is dependent on a storm that could form along the NC coast. I am not too convinced of it now. What I am convinced of is that temps will head back below normal this week. There also is a threat of a bigger system the first couple days of March and that one *COULD* be rather significant.

All for now!

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Thursday, February 18, 2010

To snow or not to snow? OHH it is not easy!

So, I have been very busy with life and that makes it very tough to be on line and updating! I AM SORRY!

What in the world to do with Monday's system.

I am LESS impressed with it! It has been flipping back and forth between a snow to rain, barely much, rain, and, at one point, even a snowy system on models.

What does this say?
Well, in most years, I would conclude, if it is so hard to get  snow storm on a model, it will not happen! But, this year we have some things that have helped it be a snowier outcome! My conclusion, It will likely be some snow, possibly significant, but probably not an ALL snow system! Now, this is NORTHERN Virginia and Maryland that I think *COULD* have significant snow. Some areas will see a snow to start, and then a turn over to rain.

How much?
I am very concerned about the amount of rain! IF we get a lot, flooding and house leaks will be something serious we will have to deal with! I DO expect this will be the case! Flood watches and warnings will end up being posted!

Could it be all snow?!
POSSIBLY, but i would point only to the Northern 1/3rd of VA and Western 2/3rds of Maryland as the possible snow area!

What is next?!
A little colder conditions set up next week for us, but a real Arctic invasion may be in store for the nation. THIS MAY set up a bigger snow storm later next week, but, ironically, a lot depends on the outcome of Monday's system!

So I have a lot of questions remaining. I would suspect that in the next 24 hours I will have a better grasp of this. What i do know is that something is likely Monday!


All for now!


Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Big storm on the Horizon?

Signs are starting to point to a large snow storm next Monday!
Pattern says it is right, Models now just starting to see a potential
big storm. Yes, snow will be a big factor in the storm. Where? This
now looks in the major category (10+ inches)

--
Sent from my mobile device

Monday, February 15, 2010

Small amounts of snow today - Cold start - Cool week - Long term - Maybe another big storm?

Not a lot of time to write this morning. The Alberta clipper sill doe best in the Mountains where 3 to 6 inches of snow will initially fall. More snow will continue west of the ridges where 6 to 12" of snow should accumulate. For areas East of I-95 and South of Fredericksburg to Roanoke, rain will ultimately be the systems output and this will mean a trace to maybe an inch. Along I-95 north and west will see a longer period of snow and the Immediate Piedmont could see 1 to possibly 3 inches of snow.

This week will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the most part. This weekend looks clear at this point, but the pattern is still there so I will watch for possible storminess. If not this weekend in the not too distant future it appears another snow system could affect us.

All for now!

 

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

ALL TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FALL!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010

...PRELIMINARY ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORDS SET AT THE
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AREA...

AS OF 2 PM TODAY...WITH THE 9.8 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED
AT RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL
TOTAL IN WASHINGTON DC STANDS AT 54.9 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE
PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC OF 54.4
INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1898-99. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR
WASHINGTON DC DATE BACK 126 YEARS TO 1884.

AS OF 1 PM TODAY...WITH THE 11.9 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL
MEASURED AT BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD MARSHALL
AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN BALTIMORE STANDS AT 72.3
INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL
RECORD FOR BALTIMORE OF 62.5 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1995-96.
OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR BALTIMORE DATE BACK 118 YEARS TO 1893.

FINALLY...AS OF YESTERDAY...THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL AT
DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT STOOD AT 63.5 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK
THE PREVIOUS SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD OF 61.9 INCHES SET IN 1995-96.
AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES IS
8.5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL
72.0 INCHES. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DULLES DATE BACK 48 YEARS
TO 1962.

THESE PRELIMINARY STORM TOTALS ARE AS OF THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
10 FEB 2010...AND WILL BE UPDATED AFTER THE CURRENT SNOW HAS ENDED.

AS WITH ANY MAJOR CLIMATE RECORD ACHIEVEMENT...THESE PRELIMINARY
RECORDS WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY NOAA`S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

$$

KLEIN/ZUBRICK/LEE

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Snow is on the way!

Sorry for the lack of an alert! If you have been checking http://www.midatlanticweather.com I did put put a map early this morning! The snow will start today and for areas of Northern Virginia, Central and Eastern Maryland, and Eastern PA it will be heavier overnight. I do anticipate some mixing issues at some point in this storm for areas of DC, Charlottesville, possibly even Baltimore and south and east.The further south and east, the more the mixing. I put the DC region at 4 to 8" because of this. DC could be higher if  more snow than I anticipate comes from the coastal.

Quick thoughts on totals (within 2 inches either side of the number):
Dulles - 7
Leesburg - 10
DC - 8
Baltimore - 14
Fredericksburg - 3
Charlottesville - 3 (maybe up to 5)
Towson - 16
York PA - 16
Frederick MD - 11
Front Royal - 11

One other important ingredient of this storm will be the strong winds. Winds will increase towards teh end of teh storm and make for considerable blowing an drifting. Be safe!

All for now!

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More sleet will mean less snow - less sleet - more snow! Tough call!

Monday, February 08, 2010

latest from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE!!!!

Posted A minute ago

Issued by The National Weather Service
Baltimore/Washington, MD
3:04 pm EST, Mon., Feb. 8, 2010

.... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE... SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING... MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES... TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS... LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

get ready :)


LUKE

Initial Tuesday thoughts

Northern VA (east of the Mountains) DC *Could* see 3 to 5 inches.
Eastern, and especially Northeastern Maryland to see the most and I am
thinking 5 to 9 inches there. Preliminary thoughts. We will have ice
concerns Valleys and immediate Piedmont all the way to NC.

All for now.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Sunday, February 07, 2010

Winter Storm Watches posted

I will look into the new model runs this evening for a read on what we are about to see! I see frozen precipitation. I am just not sure how much yet. My first thoughts are for 4 to 8 inches with possibly more. I suspect a mixing of snow at some point with sleet and we have ice to worry about in the I - 95 corridor. This type of system is not a typical Mid Atlantic snow producer. That being said, this is nothing but a typical year for snow storms.

Winter Storm watches have been posted due to the impact on our region!

What an amazing year! 70 inches of snow so far in my back yard!

All for now!

 

WOW! WOW! WOW! What an amazing snow storm! I hate to say more is probably on the way for some!

I measured roughly 28 inches of snow. The airport ( a few miles from here) measured 32 inches. I am probably low due to the compaction factor as I did not get an official measurement (bad weather man!), but I know in the back we have about 31 inches on the ground! So what next?

Do not hate the messenger, but Northern Virginia is starting to look under the gun for a snow, to sleet, back to snow event starting Tuesday. As of now this could be another significant winter storm with snow exceeding 4" in many places already buried under a ridiculous amount of snow. A return to much colder temps also looks possible. This could mean 2 things - the snow track is further south, but the snow is not going anywhere fast!  Of note I will be watching a southern system for next weekend as well, but I THINK this will go far enough south to spare the region.

This is all I have for now.
 

Thursday, February 04, 2010

I am SHOCKED at my map - But this looks HUGE!
Within 4 inches too LOW or to HIGH! 0m my points -
Points -
Baltimore - 23
Dulles - 25
Washington DC - 25
Manassas - 26
Charlottesville - 27
Dover - 28
Annapolis - 29
Woodbridge - 28
Stafford - 24
Charlottesville - 27
Richmond - 10 - sleet in the middle - Storm Sandwich
Lycnchburg - 15 - some sleet
Roanoke 15 inches - Sleety
Williamsburg - 12 - A lot sleet in the middle
Petersburg - 5 - Dry Slot

Clarification on Big Snow possibilities

The last post was based on this morning's early run of the models. It is not considered to have the same weight as the noon or late evening runs of these models, but they may have picked up something that needs to be considered.  We will look to see if this holds true at noon as well and update as necessary. Ironically, although I think it may be overdone, it *COULD* be under done! We will have to wait and see!

MAJOR WINTER STORM COMING!!!!

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON THE WAY. THIS STORM IS PROJECTED BY THE HPC CENTER TO RIVAL THE FEB 11TH STORM OF 1983 WHICH DUMPED NEARLY 2 FT OF SNOW ON MID ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BLOWING, DRIFTING, AND NEARLY 2-2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP, WHICH WHITH A STANDARD 10:1 RATIO MEANS ABOUT 15-25 INCHES LOCALLY 30 INCHES.

MORE TO COME

***LUKE ***

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Map! First Guess:
DC - 16"
Dulles - 20"
Charlottesville - 20"
Fredericksburg - 15"(Some sleet)
Richmond - 7" with a lot of sleet
Roanoke - 8" - Sleet and freezing rain too
Frederick Maryland -20"
Baltimore - 22"
Bowie - 22"
Annapolis - 22"
Dover 22"
I also have concern that NC will see a serious/severe ice storm in some of the valleys. ALSO, flooding in Southeastern VA and a lot of North carolina that has snow pack is possible!
Serious situation!

HISTORIC EAST COAST SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY!

I am trying to get a grip on this, but we are in for a SERIOUS CRIPPLING SNOW for parts of the region. Areas now appear to be headed of 2 feet of snow or more in Northern Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. This is serious!!!! A State of Emergency has been issued and, just like people get ready for Hurricanes, you need to take this seriously! We will see extremely heavy snow from Friday night through Noon Saturday for the Northern Virginia.

I am working on a map for this!

More to come!

Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Major East Coast Snow could be a possible Historical East Coast Snow

First off, this season has been so surprising. Tonight's storm will drop (in my back yard) nearly 6" or possibly more! This is a 40"+ season already, and we are heading for a lot more. Tonight's snows will have dumped 3 to 5 inches in a lot of Northwest Vorginia and 2 to 4" in the northern half of Virgina and Marland is receiving 2 to 4 inches! Heavy snow fell here for about 3 hours!

Friday into Saturday looks great for a snow lover like me! Snow amounts in the northern part of Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, and on up into New Jersey could see totals approach 20 inches. This is especially true west of I-95. South and east of a Charlottesville, Dulles, Baltimore line will very likely see a mix of sleet and even rain further east. This will then all end as snow for most places.

This will be a very big storm.. heavy precipitation is also likely. People under a lot of snow that end up with rain may see some flooding rains! If you have a lot of snow, please be certain you have cleared drains so that run off does not back up against your house. Coastal flooding also looks likely in this one due to the duration.

When will this thing arrive. It will start Friday - mid to late day and overspread the region. This has shown some speed fluctuation so we will have to see what comes of this!

I am not trying to over worry folks, but another storm looks possible next week, and, this one could affect us mid week. This will be something to watch and could be big. After this I am seeing the possibility of a serious cold set up for a bit!

What a winter! ALL for now!
 
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Winter storm warnings posted

Please be aware that the storm tonight has been up to 3 to 6 inches!!

--
Sent from my mobile device

Happy Ground Hog day - Snow on the way! Bit more snow tan first thought for some!

Areas along I -95 from Fredericksburg north into southern Maryland could see 1 to 2 inches of snow with a mix of rain at first.
Areas west of I-95 - 15 miles east of a line from Charlottesville to Dulles and westward to the mountains and beyond could see  2 to as much as 4" of snow. The higher amounts likely immediate  Piedmont and mountains.

Areas south on I -95 a mix of sleet and rain will occur, but Southwestern VA and western NC will see a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Please be careful!

The Weekend system is setting up as a northwestern 2/3rds of the state. Due to a bit of warmer conditions I would set this more in line with the totals from the December 19th storm for these areas. Along I - 95 from Fredericksburg and going down to Richmond will see a mixing scenario. It is possible that the mixing will go west of this, but the snow totals will be impressive.

This will again likely be a MAJOR storm and some areas could again approach 20" or more of snow!

Please stay alert today as the snow moves in for the evening rush up north.

All I have for now

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Winter weather alert in track - maybe a bit more than expected

Areas along I -95 from Fredericksburg north into southern Maryland could see 1 to 2 inches of snow with a mix of rain at first.
Areas west of I-95 - 15 miles east of a line from Charlottesville to Dulles and westward to the mountains and beyond could see  2 to as much as 4" of snow. The higher amounts likely immediate  Piedmont and mountains.

Areas south on I -95 a mix of sleet and rain will occur, but Southwestern VA and western NC will see a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Please be careful!

The Weekend system is setting up as a northwestern 2/3rds of the state. Due to a bit of warmer conditions I would set this more in line with the totals from the December 19th storm for these areas. Along I - 95 from Fredericksburg and going down to Richmond will see a mixing scenario. It is possible that the mixing will go west of this, but the snow totals will be impressive.

This will again likely be a MAJOR storm and some areas could again approach 20" or more of snow!

Please stay alert today as the snow moves in for the evening rush up north.

All I have for now!
 

Monday, February 01, 2010

Winter weather alert for Snow and a mix

Winter weather alert for Snow and a mix.

There will be a period of wintry weather starting as early as tomorrow morning for areas of Southwestern VA and Western NC. Down there there will mainly be a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and some snow is possible as you head north. As the system moves through snow will also break out through the state. Along I-95 this will be a mix and then end as some snow. The Piedmont from Roanoke to Charlottesville and up to Dulles airport and inch or two of snow may occur!

This weekend's storm looks very impressive. So much so, I am just trying to raise awareness. I am concerned of 2 things!
1. We will see the biggest snows of the season! Areas that saw up to 2 feet on December 19th, may see a storm that is BIGGER than this!
2. A mix along and east of I-95 which will cause a big decrease in snow amounts!

Please be alert of the snow tomorrow and be expecting winter weather this weekend!

All for now!


 
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UPDATE ON WEEKEND STORM

Could be the largest of the winter for some!! Stay tuned!

WEEKEND STORM

there is a possibility of a little disturbance coming through on tues - wed. but that wont be much maybe a dusting, but the weekend storm has the POTENTIAL to be a biggie, still 4 days out so stay tuned , models are kinda in agree ment but track is still needing to be fine tuned of course. stay tuned!!

*** luke***

Tuesday threat for snow/mix increasing - Big Storm this weekend leaves some questions

It is cold up here in northern Virginia this morning! I am waking up to 7 degrees! BRRRR.

Tomorrow and tomorrow night. The amount of precipitation is a bit questionable but some areas could see 2 to 4 inches and we also have a freezing rain threat along the Piedmont of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Please stay tuned on this.

Seasonably cold temps will remain the rest of the week as I watch what will happen this weekend. I am not exactly sure honestly. I am trying to get a handle on what the models are saying. We honestly could see snow, snow to rain, a mix to rain, or a miss of the east coast (unlikely for the whole region)

This is about all I have time for now. I may have to raise a snow alert late today for tomorrow!

All for now!

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