Not a lot of time to write this morning. The Alberta clipper sill doe best in the Mountains where 3 to 6 inches of snow will initially fall. More snow will continue west of the ridges where 6 to 12" of snow should accumulate. For areas East of I-95 and South of Fredericksburg to Roanoke, rain will ultimately be the systems output and this will mean a trace to maybe an inch. Along I-95 north and west will see a longer period of snow and the Immediate Piedmont could see 1 to possibly 3 inches of snow.
This week will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the most part. This weekend looks clear at this point, but the pattern is still there so I will watch for possible storminess. If not this weekend in the not too distant future it appears another snow system could affect us.
All for now!
Monday, February 15, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
ALL TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FALL!
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010
...PRELIMINARY ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORDS SET AT THE
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AREA...
AS OF 2 PM TODAY...WITH THE 9.8 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED
AT RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL
TOTAL IN WASHINGTON DC STANDS AT 54.9 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE
PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC OF 54.4
INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1898-99. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR
WASHINGTON DC DATE BACK 126 YEARS TO 1884.
AS OF 1 PM TODAY...WITH THE 11.9 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL
MEASURED AT BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD MARSHALL
AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN BALTIMORE STANDS AT 72.3
INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL
RECORD FOR BALTIMORE OF 62.5 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1995-96.
OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR BALTIMORE DATE BACK 118 YEARS TO 1893.
FINALLY...AS OF YESTERDAY...THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL AT
DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT STOOD AT 63.5 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK
THE PREVIOUS SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD OF 61.9 INCHES SET IN 1995-96.
AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES IS
8.5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL
72.0 INCHES. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DULLES DATE BACK 48 YEARS
TO 1962.
THESE PRELIMINARY STORM TOTALS ARE AS OF THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
10 FEB 2010...AND WILL BE UPDATED AFTER THE CURRENT SNOW HAS ENDED.
AS WITH ANY MAJOR CLIMATE RECORD ACHIEVEMENT...THESE PRELIMINARY
RECORDS WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY NOAA`S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
$$
KLEIN/ZUBRICK/LEE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010
...PRELIMINARY ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORDS SET AT THE
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AREA...
AS OF 2 PM TODAY...WITH THE 9.8 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED
AT RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL
TOTAL IN WASHINGTON DC STANDS AT 54.9 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE
PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC OF 54.4
INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1898-99. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR
WASHINGTON DC DATE BACK 126 YEARS TO 1884.
AS OF 1 PM TODAY...WITH THE 11.9 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL
MEASURED AT BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD MARSHALL
AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN BALTIMORE STANDS AT 72.3
INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL
RECORD FOR BALTIMORE OF 62.5 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1995-96.
OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR BALTIMORE DATE BACK 118 YEARS TO 1893.
FINALLY...AS OF YESTERDAY...THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL AT
DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT STOOD AT 63.5 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK
THE PREVIOUS SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD OF 61.9 INCHES SET IN 1995-96.
AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES IS
8.5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL
72.0 INCHES. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DULLES DATE BACK 48 YEARS
TO 1962.
THESE PRELIMINARY STORM TOTALS ARE AS OF THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
10 FEB 2010...AND WILL BE UPDATED AFTER THE CURRENT SNOW HAS ENDED.
AS WITH ANY MAJOR CLIMATE RECORD ACHIEVEMENT...THESE PRELIMINARY
RECORDS WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY NOAA`S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
$$
KLEIN/ZUBRICK/LEE
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Snow is on the way!
Sorry for the lack of an alert! If you have been checking http://www.midatlanticweather.com I did put put a map early this morning! The snow will start today and for areas of Northern Virginia, Central and Eastern Maryland, and Eastern PA it will be heavier overnight. I do anticipate some mixing issues at some point in this storm for areas of DC, Charlottesville, possibly even Baltimore and south and east.The further south and east, the more the mixing. I put the DC region at 4 to 8" because of this. DC could be higher if more snow than I anticipate comes from the coastal.
Quick thoughts on totals (within 2 inches either side of the number):
Dulles - 7
Leesburg - 10
DC - 8
Baltimore - 14
Fredericksburg - 3
Charlottesville - 3 (maybe up to 5)
Towson - 16
York PA - 16
Frederick MD - 11
Front Royal - 11
One other important ingredient of this storm will be the strong winds. Winds will increase towards teh end of teh storm and make for considerable blowing an drifting. Be safe!
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
Quick thoughts on totals (within 2 inches either side of the number):
Dulles - 7
Leesburg - 10
DC - 8
Baltimore - 14
Fredericksburg - 3
Charlottesville - 3 (maybe up to 5)
Towson - 16
York PA - 16
Frederick MD - 11
Front Royal - 11
One other important ingredient of this storm will be the strong winds. Winds will increase towards teh end of teh storm and make for considerable blowing an drifting. Be safe!
All for now!
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Monday, February 08, 2010
latest from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE!!!!
Posted A minute ago
Issued by The National Weather Service
Baltimore/Washington, MD
3:04 pm EST, Mon., Feb. 8, 2010
.... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE... SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 20 INCHES.
* TIMING... MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* TEMPERATURES... TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
* WINDS... LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.
get ready :)
LUKE
Initial Tuesday thoughts
Northern VA (east of the Mountains) DC *Could* see 3 to 5 inches.
Eastern, and especially Northeastern Maryland to see the most and I am
thinking 5 to 9 inches there. Preliminary thoughts. We will have ice
concerns Valleys and immediate Piedmont all the way to NC.
Eastern, and especially Northeastern Maryland to see the most and I am
thinking 5 to 9 inches there. Preliminary thoughts. We will have ice
concerns Valleys and immediate Piedmont all the way to NC.
All for now.
--
Sent from my mobile device
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Winter Storm Watches posted
I will look into the new model runs this evening for a read on what we are about to see! I see frozen precipitation. I am just not sure how much yet. My first thoughts are for 4 to 8 inches with possibly more. I suspect a mixing of snow at some point with sleet and we have ice to worry about in the I - 95 corridor. This type of system is not a typical Mid Atlantic snow producer. That being said, this is nothing but a typical year for snow storms.
Winter Storm watches have been posted due to the impact on our region!
What an amazing year! 70 inches of snow so far in my back yard!
All for now!
Winter Storm watches have been posted due to the impact on our region!
What an amazing year! 70 inches of snow so far in my back yard!
All for now!
WOW! WOW! WOW! What an amazing snow storm! I hate to say more is probably on the way for some!
I measured roughly 28 inches of snow. The airport ( a few miles from here) measured 32 inches. I am probably low due to the compaction factor as I did not get an official measurement (bad weather man!), but I know in the back we have about 31 inches on the ground! So what next?
Do not hate the messenger, but Northern Virginia is starting to look under the gun for a snow, to sleet, back to snow event starting Tuesday. As of now this could be another significant winter storm with snow exceeding 4" in many places already buried under a ridiculous amount of snow. A return to much colder temps also looks possible. This could mean 2 things - the snow track is further south, but the snow is not going anywhere fast! Of note I will be watching a southern system for next weekend as well, but I THINK this will go far enough south to spare the region.
This is all I have for now.
Do not hate the messenger, but Northern Virginia is starting to look under the gun for a snow, to sleet, back to snow event starting Tuesday. As of now this could be another significant winter storm with snow exceeding 4" in many places already buried under a ridiculous amount of snow. A return to much colder temps also looks possible. This could mean 2 things - the snow track is further south, but the snow is not going anywhere fast! Of note I will be watching a southern system for next weekend as well, but I THINK this will go far enough south to spare the region.
This is all I have for now.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
I am SHOCKED at my map - But this looks HUGE!
Within 4 inches too LOW or to HIGH! 0m my points -
Points -
Baltimore - 23
Dulles - 25
Washington DC - 25
Manassas - 26
Charlottesville - 27
Dover - 28
Annapolis - 29
Woodbridge - 28
Stafford - 24
Charlottesville - 27
Richmond - 10 - sleet in the middle - Storm Sandwich
Lycnchburg - 15 - some sleet
Roanoke 15 inches - Sleety
Williamsburg - 12 - A lot sleet in the middle
Petersburg - 5 - Dry Slot
Clarification on Big Snow possibilities
The last post was based on this morning's early run of the models. It is not considered to have the same weight as the noon or late evening runs of these models, but they may have picked up something that needs to be considered. We will look to see if this holds true at noon as well and update as necessary. Ironically, although I think it may be overdone, it *COULD* be under done! We will have to wait and see!
MAJOR WINTER STORM COMING!!!!
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON THE WAY. THIS STORM IS PROJECTED BY THE HPC CENTER TO RIVAL THE FEB 11TH STORM OF 1983 WHICH DUMPED NEARLY 2 FT OF SNOW ON MID ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BLOWING, DRIFTING, AND NEARLY 2-2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP, WHICH WHITH A STANDARD 10:1 RATIO MEANS ABOUT 15-25 INCHES LOCALLY 30 INCHES.
MORE TO COME
***LUKE ***
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Map!
First Guess:DC - 16"
Dulles - 20"
Charlottesville - 20"
Fredericksburg - 15"(Some sleet)
Richmond - 7" with a lot of sleet
Roanoke - 8" - Sleet and freezing rain too
Frederick Maryland -20"
Baltimore - 22"
Bowie - 22"
Annapolis - 22"
Dover 22"
I also have concern that NC will see a serious/severe ice storm in some of the valleys. ALSO, flooding in Southeastern VA and a lot of North carolina that has snow pack is possible!
Serious situation!
HISTORIC EAST COAST SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY!
I am trying to get a grip on this, but we are in for a SERIOUS CRIPPLING SNOW for parts of the region. Areas now appear to be headed of 2 feet of snow or more in Northern Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. This is serious!!!! A State of Emergency has been issued and, just like people get ready for Hurricanes, you need to take this seriously! We will see extremely heavy snow from Friday night through Noon Saturday for the Northern Virginia.
I am working on a map for this!
More to come!
I am working on a map for this!
More to come!
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Major East Coast Snow could be a possible Historical East Coast Snow
First off, this season has been so surprising. Tonight's storm will drop (in my back yard) nearly 6" or possibly more! This is a 40"+ season already, and we are heading for a lot more. Tonight's snows will have dumped 3 to 5 inches in a lot of Northwest Vorginia and 2 to 4" in the northern half of Virgina and Marland is receiving 2 to 4 inches! Heavy snow fell here for about 3 hours!
Friday into Saturday looks great for a snow lover like me! Snow amounts in the northern part of Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, and on up into New Jersey could see totals approach 20 inches. This is especially true west of I-95. South and east of a Charlottesville, Dulles, Baltimore line will very likely see a mix of sleet and even rain further east. This will then all end as snow for most places.
This will be a very big storm.. heavy precipitation is also likely. People under a lot of snow that end up with rain may see some flooding rains! If you have a lot of snow, please be certain you have cleared drains so that run off does not back up against your house. Coastal flooding also looks likely in this one due to the duration.
When will this thing arrive. It will start Friday - mid to late day and overspread the region. This has shown some speed fluctuation so we will have to see what comes of this!
I am not trying to over worry folks, but another storm looks possible next week, and, this one could affect us mid week. This will be something to watch and could be big. After this I am seeing the possibility of a serious cold set up for a bit!
What a winter! ALL for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
Friday into Saturday looks great for a snow lover like me! Snow amounts in the northern part of Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, and on up into New Jersey could see totals approach 20 inches. This is especially true west of I-95. South and east of a Charlottesville, Dulles, Baltimore line will very likely see a mix of sleet and even rain further east. This will then all end as snow for most places.
This will be a very big storm.. heavy precipitation is also likely. People under a lot of snow that end up with rain may see some flooding rains! If you have a lot of snow, please be certain you have cleared drains so that run off does not back up against your house. Coastal flooding also looks likely in this one due to the duration.
When will this thing arrive. It will start Friday - mid to late day and overspread the region. This has shown some speed fluctuation so we will have to see what comes of this!
I am not trying to over worry folks, but another storm looks possible next week, and, this one could affect us mid week. This will be something to watch and could be big. After this I am seeing the possibility of a serious cold set up for a bit!
What a winter! ALL for now!
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Winter storm warnings posted
Please be aware that the storm tonight has been up to 3 to 6 inches!!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Happy Ground Hog day - Snow on the way! Bit more snow tan first thought for some!
Areas along I -95 from Fredericksburg north into southern Maryland could see 1 to 2 inches of snow with a mix of rain at first.
Areas west of I-95 - 15 miles east of a line from Charlottesville to Dulles and westward to the mountains and beyond could see 2 to as much as 4" of snow. The higher amounts likely immediate Piedmont and mountains.
Areas south on I -95 a mix of sleet and rain will occur, but Southwestern VA and western NC will see a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Please be careful!
The Weekend system is setting up as a northwestern 2/3rds of the state. Due to a bit of warmer conditions I would set this more in line with the totals from the December 19th storm for these areas. Along I - 95 from Fredericksburg and going down to Richmond will see a mixing scenario. It is possible that the mixing will go west of this, but the snow totals will be impressive.
This will again likely be a MAJOR storm and some areas could again approach 20" or more of snow!
Please stay alert today as the snow moves in for the evening rush up north.
All I have for now
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
Areas west of I-95 - 15 miles east of a line from Charlottesville to Dulles and westward to the mountains and beyond could see 2 to as much as 4" of snow. The higher amounts likely immediate Piedmont and mountains.
Areas south on I -95 a mix of sleet and rain will occur, but Southwestern VA and western NC will see a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Please be careful!
The Weekend system is setting up as a northwestern 2/3rds of the state. Due to a bit of warmer conditions I would set this more in line with the totals from the December 19th storm for these areas. Along I - 95 from Fredericksburg and going down to Richmond will see a mixing scenario. It is possible that the mixing will go west of this, but the snow totals will be impressive.
This will again likely be a MAJOR storm and some areas could again approach 20" or more of snow!
Please stay alert today as the snow moves in for the evening rush up north.
All I have for now
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Winter weather alert in track - maybe a bit more than expected
Areas along I -95 from Fredericksburg north into southern Maryland could see 1 to 2 inches of snow with a mix of rain at first.
Areas west of I-95 - 15 miles east of a line from Charlottesville to Dulles and westward to the mountains and beyond could see 2 to as much as 4" of snow. The higher amounts likely immediate Piedmont and mountains.
Areas south on I -95 a mix of sleet and rain will occur, but Southwestern VA and western NC will see a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Please be careful!
The Weekend system is setting up as a northwestern 2/3rds of the state. Due to a bit of warmer conditions I would set this more in line with the totals from the December 19th storm for these areas. Along I - 95 from Fredericksburg and going down to Richmond will see a mixing scenario. It is possible that the mixing will go west of this, but the snow totals will be impressive.
This will again likely be a MAJOR storm and some areas could again approach 20" or more of snow!
Please stay alert today as the snow moves in for the evening rush up north.
All I have for now!
Areas west of I-95 - 15 miles east of a line from Charlottesville to Dulles and westward to the mountains and beyond could see 2 to as much as 4" of snow. The higher amounts likely immediate Piedmont and mountains.
Areas south on I -95 a mix of sleet and rain will occur, but Southwestern VA and western NC will see a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Please be careful!
The Weekend system is setting up as a northwestern 2/3rds of the state. Due to a bit of warmer conditions I would set this more in line with the totals from the December 19th storm for these areas. Along I - 95 from Fredericksburg and going down to Richmond will see a mixing scenario. It is possible that the mixing will go west of this, but the snow totals will be impressive.
This will again likely be a MAJOR storm and some areas could again approach 20" or more of snow!
Please stay alert today as the snow moves in for the evening rush up north.
All I have for now!
Monday, February 01, 2010
Winter weather alert for Snow and a mix
Winter weather alert for Snow and a mix.
There will be a period of wintry weather starting as early as tomorrow morning for areas of Southwestern VA and Western NC. Down there there will mainly be a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and some snow is possible as you head north. As the system moves through snow will also break out through the state. Along I-95 this will be a mix and then end as some snow. The Piedmont from Roanoke to Charlottesville and up to Dulles airport and inch or two of snow may occur!
This weekend's storm looks very impressive. So much so, I am just trying to raise awareness. I am concerned of 2 things!
1. We will see the biggest snows of the season! Areas that saw up to 2 feet on December 19th, may see a storm that is BIGGER than this!
2. A mix along and east of I-95 which will cause a big decrease in snow amounts!
Please be alert of the snow tomorrow and be expecting winter weather this weekend!
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
There will be a period of wintry weather starting as early as tomorrow morning for areas of Southwestern VA and Western NC. Down there there will mainly be a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and some snow is possible as you head north. As the system moves through snow will also break out through the state. Along I-95 this will be a mix and then end as some snow. The Piedmont from Roanoke to Charlottesville and up to Dulles airport and inch or two of snow may occur!
This weekend's storm looks very impressive. So much so, I am just trying to raise awareness. I am concerned of 2 things!
1. We will see the biggest snows of the season! Areas that saw up to 2 feet on December 19th, may see a storm that is BIGGER than this!
2. A mix along and east of I-95 which will cause a big decrease in snow amounts!
Please be alert of the snow tomorrow and be expecting winter weather this weekend!
All for now!
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WEEKEND STORM
there is a possibility of a little disturbance coming through on tues - wed. but that wont be much maybe a dusting, but the weekend storm has the POTENTIAL to be a biggie, still 4 days out so stay tuned , models are kinda in agree ment but track is still needing to be fine tuned of course. stay tuned!!
*** luke***
Tuesday threat for snow/mix increasing - Big Storm this weekend leaves some questions
It is cold up here in northern Virginia this morning! I am waking up to 7 degrees! BRRRR.
Tomorrow and tomorrow night. The amount of precipitation is a bit questionable but some areas could see 2 to 4 inches and we also have a freezing rain threat along the Piedmont of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Please stay tuned on this.
Seasonably cold temps will remain the rest of the week as I watch what will happen this weekend. I am not exactly sure honestly. I am trying to get a handle on what the models are saying. We honestly could see snow, snow to rain, a mix to rain, or a miss of the east coast (unlikely for the whole region)
This is about all I have time for now. I may have to raise a snow alert late today for tomorrow!
All for now!
Tomorrow and tomorrow night. The amount of precipitation is a bit questionable but some areas could see 2 to 4 inches and we also have a freezing rain threat along the Piedmont of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Please stay tuned on this.
Seasonably cold temps will remain the rest of the week as I watch what will happen this weekend. I am not exactly sure honestly. I am trying to get a handle on what the models are saying. We honestly could see snow, snow to rain, a mix to rain, or a miss of the east coast (unlikely for the whole region)
This is about all I have time for now. I may have to raise a snow alert late today for tomorrow!
All for now!
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Next weekend is looking interesting - Mid week we may have a small "storm"
Not a lot of time to post. I do not want to downplay a possible mid week smaller system that would cause Central VA a bit of snow (maybe a modest one). I am not yet sold on it.
Next weekend is starting to look a bit like the last. It is WAY early, but this one may head out to the south again! We will have to wait and see.
I am just commenting on models and raising awareness on mid week possibilities.
Off to bed and getting ready for a really tough Monday!
Next weekend is starting to look a bit like the last. It is WAY early, but this one may head out to the south again! We will have to wait and see.
I am just commenting on models and raising awareness on mid week possibilities.
Off to bed and getting ready for a really tough Monday!
Cold conditions - Seasonably cold week - BIG STORM LOOMS
I was very happy with the snow up here in Northern Virginia and Maryland because I am a snow freak! I love it! This week looks relatively dry except Tuesday night when snow showers and rain showers may visit.
The next BIG SYSTEM looks like it will arrive around next Friday! There will be a wintry component, but, due to the strength of the storm it may turn folks to a mix or even rain for a while. The mountains and immediate Piedmont look best set for another major snow event (8"+). This is way early to get hung up on these details, but it is something to be watching.
FYI.. f you keep pets outside the temps and snow pack could be too much for them. Please get them in a garage or inside sat nights and make certain they have fresh, unfrozen, drinking water!
All for now!
The next BIG SYSTEM looks like it will arrive around next Friday! There will be a wintry component, but, due to the strength of the storm it may turn folks to a mix or even rain for a while. The mountains and immediate Piedmont look best set for another major snow event (8"+). This is way early to get hung up on these details, but it is something to be watching.
FYI.. f you keep pets outside the temps and snow pack could be too much for them. Please get them in a garage or inside sat nights and make certain they have fresh, unfrozen, drinking water!
All for now!
Friday, January 29, 2010
Models trending North!
2 to 4 inches now possible in DC metro. More possible. Updates later!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Sorm on track! Southern VA Northern NC Historical Snow and Winter Storm!
I would not stray too far from my map for Virginia. This looks like a
Historic event. Snow will start in the evening in the southwest and
overspread the southern third of Virginia and the northern half of
North carolina. I may say a 1 to 3 inch increase in higher amount
locations could occur as the ratios of snow per liquid equivalent will
be high! That is rare for that part of the country. Snow will
gradually progress north but it seems unlilkely it will make it past
the southern DC metro area. Around that area an inch may fall. A very
cold day with temps region wide in the 20s tomorrow. North Carolina,
South Carolina and Northeast Georgia could see Ice totals up to or
over 1 inch. Snow will be cut down in total amounts for the southern
half of the state with sleet and freezing rain a real issue down to
the South Carolina border. This will be one for the rcord books. Some
adjustments may come as the storm gets closer, but those in the warned
areas should prepare!
Historic event. Snow will start in the evening in the southwest and
overspread the southern third of Virginia and the northern half of
North carolina. I may say a 1 to 3 inch increase in higher amount
locations could occur as the ratios of snow per liquid equivalent will
be high! That is rare for that part of the country. Snow will
gradually progress north but it seems unlilkely it will make it past
the southern DC metro area. Around that area an inch may fall. A very
cold day with temps region wide in the 20s tomorrow. North Carolina,
South Carolina and Northeast Georgia could see Ice totals up to or
over 1 inch. Snow will be cut down in total amounts for the southern
half of the state with sleet and freezing rain a real issue down to
the South Carolina border. This will be one for the rcord books. Some
adjustments may come as the storm gets closer, but those in the warned
areas should prepare!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Second Call on the Event!
Richmond - 8"
Bristol - 13"
Roanoke - 8"
Raleigh - 8" - With Sleet too
Norfolk - 10 - 12" Sleet at first
Charlottesville - 5"
Frederickburg - 3 - 4"
Dulles - 1"
DC - 2"
Asheville - 7" and sleet
Raleigh - 8"
Danville - 14 - 16"
Martinsville - 14 - 16"
Roanoke Rapids - 12 - 14"
Greensboro - 9"
Greenville SC - 2" and sleet and freezing rain to .5"
Major Ice Storm down in Piedmont of SC/NC/Northeast GA!
UPCOMING STORM
THE STORM FOR FRI-SAT IS LOOKING LIKE ONE FOR SOUTHEAST VA AND NC. ALTHOUGH THE 6Z SHOWS A NORTHERN TREND WITH EURO, GFS, NAM, AND GGEM. SO TIME WILL TELL. BUT AT THIS TIME BULLSEYE IS SOUTHEAST VA, AND NC MOR TO COME AFTER 12Z RUNS
***_LUKE_***
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
First Guess!
First Call:
The NC/VA border is the focus line for snow! Mountains to coast snow for these folks. I would then go 50 miles either side of that for the heaviest snow! I am thinking widespread 6 to 12 inches in this area with some up to 14 - 16". Snow will then quickly drop off! Again drawing an east to west line from Charlotessville to Chincoteaugue, and down to Richmond I am thinking 3 to 6. Another thin band from Harrisonburg to Ocean City Maryland down to the last line for 1 to 3 inches. Above this up to Virginia and Maryland border could see up to 1 inch of light snow.
This could do 3 things!
1. Go South further (VERY possible)
2. Come north (possible)
3. Become a lighter event overall. This is hinted at currently.
Things that make this a southern storm- Really just 1 thing! The Polar Vortex (PV) over the Northeast is very far south and extremely strong. This Low is funneling cold air south and locking the air mass in place. This makes the system unable to come north!
Unless this PV weakens or moves we will not see a north progression. Models keep making it stronger!
All for now! Thinking map will not be posted tonight. Too tired! Too late!
The NC/VA border is the focus line for snow! Mountains to coast snow for these folks. I would then go 50 miles either side of that for the heaviest snow! I am thinking widespread 6 to 12 inches in this area with some up to 14 - 16". Snow will then quickly drop off! Again drawing an east to west line from Charlotessville to Chincoteaugue, and down to Richmond I am thinking 3 to 6. Another thin band from Harrisonburg to Ocean City Maryland down to the last line for 1 to 3 inches. Above this up to Virginia and Maryland border could see up to 1 inch of light snow.
This could do 3 things!
1. Go South further (VERY possible)
2. Come north (possible)
3. Become a lighter event overall. This is hinted at currently.
Things that make this a southern storm- Really just 1 thing! The Polar Vortex (PV) over the Northeast is very far south and extremely strong. This Low is funneling cold air south and locking the air mass in place. This makes the system unable to come north!
Unless this PV weakens or moves we will not see a north progression. Models keep making it stronger!
All for now! Thinking map will not be posted tonight. Too tired! Too late!
Snow still looks Likely for the state
From Roanoke to Richmond to Chincoteugue and southward I am seeing a Major snow storm is possible. This would mean the possibility for 8 inches or more of snow. North of that from a line up to Charlottesville to Fredericksburg, to Ocean City I could see a 4 to 8 inch snow occurring. Northward still up to the VA. MD Border, 2 to 4 inches seems more likely.. North of that, 1 - 2 inches up to the MD/PA border.
That is my current thinking. Maps will be out LATE this evening. Changes could occur on the noon model runs. If so I will attempt to update.
Time frame for snow looks later Friday and All Day Saturday.
All for now!
That is my current thinking. Maps will be out LATE this evening. Changes could occur on the noon model runs. If so I will attempt to update.
Time frame for snow looks later Friday and All Day Saturday.
All for now!
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Some model adjustments, Southern Virginia still the winners! Snow still looks likely
I will continue to watch the models for more accurate adjustments. Some encouraging signs for snow lovers on the American model this evening. It may still be off and too far north. I am still believing Southern 1/3rd of Virginia and Northern Half of North Carolina (and Mountains) to get the heaviest snows. Many will still see a significant snow from this.. Major for the VA/NC border area.
All for now!
All for now!
Saw a shift in position of Storm - Southern push! Will have to see if this holds on next runs!
Southern Virginia and North Carolina are looking like the winners on the Snow! I think I barked too soon for Maryland and Northern Virginia - at least I am concerned that models have trended SOUTH and this would be a miss Northern Virginia and Maryland! I will update later today!
Monday, January 25, 2010
With the latest Model Trends it appears a MAJOR WINTER STORM is becoming Likely!
First of all, this is STILL model forecasting! Nothing has happened YET, but I am seeing some good trends towards this event!
As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.
As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.
There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.
As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.
There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.
All for now!
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With the latest Model Trends it appears a MAJOR WINTER STORM is becoming Likely!
First of all, this is STILL model forecasting! Nothing has happened YET, but I am seeing some good trends towards this event!
As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.
As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.
There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.
As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.
There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.
All for now!
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Crazy weather - Mild rainy AM- Late week system more confident
Overnight many saw flooding rains and very gusty winds. Many flood warnings remain, so be careful! Temps have soared to the low 60s for many! This may hold for a while and start to fall some as the day progresses. This week will be interesting! Colder air will definitely visit and with reinforcements of cold air later this week. A wave of low pressure appears likely to form across the south and ride up towards the area towards the weekend. This could be a prolonged area of snow and ice for the region starting as early as Wednesday night for some and lasting through Saturday. If models are true, totals could range up to and even above a foot in some locations! That is all based on models but we have to look at the potential of a major storm as possible.
After today, the week will be cold with temps ranging 35 to 45 for the region,, with partly cloudy conditions Tuesday
Please be careful and do not attempt to drive through standing or moving water! You have no idea really how deep it may be!
All for now!
After today, the week will be cold with temps ranging 35 to 45 for the region,, with partly cloudy conditions Tuesday
Please be careful and do not attempt to drive through standing or moving water! You have no idea really how deep it may be!
All for now!
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Flood Watches posted. 2-3 inches rain
Flood watches posted for 2 to 3 inches of rain!
Confidence in winter storm next weekend continues to grow!
All for now!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Heavy rain event on the way - fairly cold week - Growing confidence in next weekend Winter Storm!
We will have a seasonably cool and dry day today. Highs in the 40s and even low 50s possible in the south. A strong storm, responsible for incredible precipitation amounts in the Rockies and the Southwest US will pay us a visit tomorrow. Rain will break out area wide and become heavy late in the day and overnight. Rains in excess of 1 to 2 inches are possible. With some warmer temps working in we may also see thunderstorms in parts of the region. Severe weather *COULD* make it to southeastern Virginia and should be watched. Temps will be in the 50s and stay there Sunday through Monday with little cool down at night.
Next week looks to get colder as the week progresses. Temps will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Next Weekend shows one of the best looking set ups I have seen for a winter weather event! We could see a significant winter storm. Much to watch and ponder between now and then.
Enjoy the dry day!
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
Next week looks to get colder as the week progresses. Temps will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Next Weekend shows one of the best looking set ups I have seen for a winter weather event! We could see a significant winter storm. Much to watch and ponder between now and then.
Enjoy the dry day!
All for now!
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Friday, January 22, 2010
Winter weather mainly west - Dry Saturday - heavy rains Sunday
Most precip today will be spotty. I pretty much had a forecast bust as
it did end up much warmer. If I had dropped the totals by 2 to as much
as 4 inches in the snow forecast I would have been better! Sorry all.
Some light mix is still possible today but nothing looks heavy.
Tomorrow temps will rebound to 30s mountains, 40s north and piedmont,
low 50s south. A very potent storm system, the one causing feet of
snow in the lower Rockies, will push through starting Sunday and last
until early Monday. Several inches of rain could come from this so
flooding is a concern. Next week looks a bit chilly with highs close
to seasonal. A potential winter storm could affect us by the end of
the week.
it did end up much warmer. If I had dropped the totals by 2 to as much
as 4 inches in the snow forecast I would have been better! Sorry all.
Some light mix is still possible today but nothing looks heavy.
Tomorrow temps will rebound to 30s mountains, 40s north and piedmont,
low 50s south. A very potent storm system, the one causing feet of
snow in the lower Rockies, will push through starting Sunday and last
until early Monday. Several inches of rain could come from this so
flooding is a concern. Next week looks a bit chilly with highs close
to seasonal. A potential winter storm could affect us by the end of
the week.
All for now!
--
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Thursday, January 21, 2010
Nuisnace wintry event - some to see decent snow
This is a tough forecast. I am inclined to be less enthusiastic about
snow chances and more sleet and rain. I think along I-95 north of
fredericksburg up to Baltimore and west about 25 miles a general
coating, to as much as 2 inches of slop (western border of that area)
will occur. The I-15 area north of charlottesville up in to maryland
could see 2 to 4 inches and areas of higher elevation along I-81 west
of charlottesville up into western Maryland could see totals of 3 to 5
inches. A slight change in storm dynamics and location could up totals
by 1 to 3 inches or drop them. This is not clear cut. Based on the
time of year a more snowy picture may occur than this.
snow chances and more sleet and rain. I think along I-95 north of
fredericksburg up to Baltimore and west about 25 miles a general
coating, to as much as 2 inches of slop (western border of that area)
will occur. The I-15 area north of charlottesville up in to maryland
could see 2 to 4 inches and areas of higher elevation along I-81 west
of charlottesville up into western Maryland could see totals of 3 to 5
inches. A slight change in storm dynamics and location could up totals
by 1 to 3 inches or drop them. This is not clear cut. Based on the
time of year a more snowy picture may occur than this.
Beyond this event a serious rain threatens the area Sunday into Monday
and flooding does seem possible.
All for now.
--
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Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Winter weather even more likely
Seeing increased chance of snow for Thursday and Friday northern
Virginia and Maryland. More to come
Virginia and Maryland. More to come
--
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Winter Storm looking more likely
Today will be another mild day with highs in the low 50s north to near 60 south. A cold front will usher in some cooler air overnight. Tomorrow will be cooler with Highs in the mid 40s to low 50s for the region. Thursday will be a bit of a challenge. North and west of a Roanoke to Charlotteville to Baltimore line a mixture of rain, then snow and sleet will be likely as the day progresses. Thursday night looks very wintry with a mix of snow and sleet and freezing rain that could progress to the I-95 corridore North of Frederickburg.
More to come.
More to come.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Marginal Snowstorm possible later this week!
The issue here will be colder air which will have to be created through dynamics and not by a cold arctic system entrenched. This will mean a mix is also very likely and that heavier precip may be the thing that makes snow. I am not yet completely sure the system, but the risk is there! This would be Mountains and immediate Piedmont west if I-95 and north of Roanoke. All I can say for now!
All for now!
All for now!
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Milder Temps! Weekend rain soaker
We will see a serious milder push of air today. Many will see mid and upper 40s, even lower 50s in the south. This mild air will stick through Saturday. A very wet system will affect the area Sunday and Sunday night. This storm will be mainly if not all rain for most. A bit of sleet could mix in at onset in the colder valleys and far north.
I was expecting a serious warm up next week, but we may just be seasonable with low and mid 40s north to around 50 south next week. Next chance of precip could be around next Friday.
All for now!
I was expecting a serious warm up next week, but we may just be seasonable with low and mid 40s north to around 50 south next week. Next chance of precip could be around next Friday.
All for now!
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Warmer - Rain this weekend - Where are we headed the rest of winter?
To elaborate - The temps will be warming for the Eastern third of the US through the next week or more as we have changes in the pattern. This winter went from a rainy weekends with several Gulf lows to changes starting around December 5th. The cold air in that storm turned the area to snow for many and that was the first of the year. We then oscillated a bit with a rain event and then the big snow on the 18th. After this there were indications that a much colder pattern may arrive around the new year. I was a bit hesitant to be on board completely, but then was convinced we would get cold. The pattern seemed ideal for another snow storm, but ideal atmospheric conditions do not always lead to a storm. So we never had another big snow but a few minor events and the cold came and was reinforced.
Why were we cold? A few factors.
1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which features a "Blocking" pattern over Greenland. This block stops cold air from advancing eastward in Canada and instead helps send it into the United states when it is in what is known as its Negative phase (-NAO).
2. What is known as a 50/50 low or similar to it. This is a Low over about 50 degree north Latitude ad 50 degree west longitude.This low at one point was a Polar Vortex (the cause of the big snow) broke down a bit and then was re established with the New England blizzard New Years weekend.
3. The western Ridge or what is known as the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. This features a High in the western US which sends colder air into the east.
All in all, the above are great for cold air and potential snow patterns.
Another factor with this winter is the moderate El Nino pattern. This has aided in southern storms that were very abundant in moisture. This is what aided in such a wet fall and also the big snow event.
With the breakdown of items 1, 2, and 3 above a change is in the offing and this will mean a much milder pattern for the East. The southern storms will still be forming and thus the pattern returns to where we were before the above colder elements sent us into the chill.
We will likely see a return in a few weeks back to a colder pattern and thus more chances of snow. Until items 1,2, or 3 reappear though, we are likely to see rain, maybe even icing in certain conditions, but not the best chances of snow.
That being said, other factors can make it snow along the East coast (like December 5th which did not really have any of the three above) but it is also less likely they would be pure snow storms.
So warming means a rainy Sunday and a milder next week with temperatures likely to be above normal for some days. Some may even reach the 60s!
All for now!
Why were we cold? A few factors.
1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which features a "Blocking" pattern over Greenland. This block stops cold air from advancing eastward in Canada and instead helps send it into the United states when it is in what is known as its Negative phase (-NAO).
2. What is known as a 50/50 low or similar to it. This is a Low over about 50 degree north Latitude ad 50 degree west longitude.This low at one point was a Polar Vortex (the cause of the big snow) broke down a bit and then was re established with the New England blizzard New Years weekend.
3. The western Ridge or what is known as the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. This features a High in the western US which sends colder air into the east.
All in all, the above are great for cold air and potential snow patterns.
Another factor with this winter is the moderate El Nino pattern. This has aided in southern storms that were very abundant in moisture. This is what aided in such a wet fall and also the big snow event.
With the breakdown of items 1, 2, and 3 above a change is in the offing and this will mean a much milder pattern for the East. The southern storms will still be forming and thus the pattern returns to where we were before the above colder elements sent us into the chill.
We will likely see a return in a few weeks back to a colder pattern and thus more chances of snow. Until items 1,2, or 3 reappear though, we are likely to see rain, maybe even icing in certain conditions, but not the best chances of snow.
That being said, other factors can make it snow along the East coast (like December 5th which did not really have any of the three above) but it is also less likely they would be pure snow storms.
So warming means a rainy Sunday and a milder next week with temperatures likely to be above normal for some days. Some may even reach the 60s!
All for now!
Warmer temps. Rain looks likely Sunday
Just a quick note! Temps will be near seasonal today with many seeing
40s for the first time in a while. A little warmer tomorrow with upper
40s and a few 50s and then Friday even warmer with widespread 50s!
40s for the first time in a while. A little warmer tomorrow with upper
40s and a few 50s and then Friday even warmer with widespread 50s!
Storm Sunday looks to be Rain. And a soaker it may be!
Milder conditions will return next week. 50s and perhaps some 60s for some!
All for now.
--
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Monday, January 11, 2010
possible winter storm this coming weekend
complex system coming this weekend. could mean snow , maybe some ice, more to come as it gets closer
luke
Quick update on Weekend Storm
Looks like a rain event more and more! Then a warm up next week. Just a quick update!
All for now!
All for now!
Cold start, milder mid week - storm this weekend
Cold morning for many with lows in the single digits for some. Temps
will warm into the 30s to maybe 40 for southern areas. Tonight will
feature the chance for some snow showers. This could leave a dusting
for a few. That area would likely be a Charlottesville, Spotsylvania,
Chincoteague line. Tomorrow will see high 3 to 5 degrees warmer with
more 40s south and upper 30s north. Wednesday warms another 5 degrees
and widespread 40s look on tap! The warmest day in a long time will be
Thursday where upper 40s to upper 50s could visit the region and melt
the ground. Next weekend is quite the challenge with highs back to the
30s and low 40s and a southern storm approaching. I do think many will
see rain, but sleet and freezing rain looks possible for valleys and
an initial mix of snow sleet and rain/freezing rain could be on tap
for northern areas. A turnover to rain does appear likely from what I
am seeing, but this could be after a good amount of snow. Rains could
be heavy and some flooding may also be a concern. Longer term a very
mild, even warm forecast looks possible with highs possibly hitting
the 60s for the area, maybe even a 70 in the south if the models are
correct. Too far off to be certain. All for now!
will warm into the 30s to maybe 40 for southern areas. Tonight will
feature the chance for some snow showers. This could leave a dusting
for a few. That area would likely be a Charlottesville, Spotsylvania,
Chincoteague line. Tomorrow will see high 3 to 5 degrees warmer with
more 40s south and upper 30s north. Wednesday warms another 5 degrees
and widespread 40s look on tap! The warmest day in a long time will be
Thursday where upper 40s to upper 50s could visit the region and melt
the ground. Next weekend is quite the challenge with highs back to the
30s and low 40s and a southern storm approaching. I do think many will
see rain, but sleet and freezing rain looks possible for valleys and
an initial mix of snow sleet and rain/freezing rain could be on tap
for northern areas. A turnover to rain does appear likely from what I
am seeing, but this could be after a good amount of snow. Rains could
be heavy and some flooding may also be a concern. Longer term a very
mild, even warm forecast looks possible with highs possibly hitting
the 60s for the area, maybe even a 70 in the south if the models are
correct. Too far off to be certain. All for now!
--
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Sunday, January 10, 2010
Slightly Milder Week - Potential BIG SNOW - Spring warmth?
The ice box is being closed SLOWLY and the deep freeze is slowly waning. We will see warmer temps this week with highs in the 30s and even 40s.
Next weekend will interesting as another gulf low is coming from the south. The cold air may be just cold enough for snow or a mix for the area. After the storm moves out a serious warm up may occur. Highs in the 50s and even 60s MAY occur. How long.. I am not sure.
We could see a touch of snow, maybe even a coating for few on Monday night into Tuesday.
Regards,
Jimmy
Next weekend will interesting as another gulf low is coming from the south. The cold air may be just cold enough for snow or a mix for the area. After the storm moves out a serious warm up may occur. Highs in the 50s and even 60s MAY occur. How long.. I am not sure.
We could see a touch of snow, maybe even a coating for few on Monday night into Tuesday.
Regards,
Jimmy
Monday, January 04, 2010
COLD - supressing storms.
Just plain cold! I warned a while back this may happen based on
models. It came true. What is not going to happen is a big snow in
such a strong flow. I will not be surprised to see a touch of snow
Friday morning.
models. It came true. What is not going to happen is a big snow in
such a strong flow. I will not be surprised to see a touch of snow
Friday morning.
Temps will be cold but not as cold tomorrow through Thursday. Friday
will see a return to super cold temps through the weekend. Not seeing
a good threat of snow in the near future. We should still watch Friday
in case something happens with phasing.
All for now!
--
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Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Advisories are posted - Nuisance snow/sleet/ice and then rain.
We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.
A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.
This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.
My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.
So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.
For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.
Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.
All for now.. map possible late.
A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.
This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.
My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.
So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.
For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.
Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.
All for now.. map possible late.
I will update late morning or early afternoon
Light snow event for Maryland and Northern Virginia looks possible - some rain and sleet - pockets of freezing rain - Tough forecast! More to come!
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Wintry threat is real - but looks light at best - Cold following - storm threats return next week
First off.. BRRRRR It is cold and windy. Tonight we will see some serious cold in the mountains with Wind Chill Advisories possible. Wind Advisories are up for many until this evening, and are well needed.
Concerning the upcoming winter weather threat:
I am sure of a few things:
1. The Southeastern Third of VA will mainly see rain from the upcoming event
2. Rain will be mixed in with snow and sleet and maybe pockets of freezing rain for most the middle third with transitions to rain and then maybe back to snow at the end.
3. It is the Northwestern third of VA and Western 2/3rds of Maryland that leave me scratching my head! I am now thinking we *COULD* see some accumulating snows.. maybe a couple of inches. The further north you are, the more the possibilities. At a maximum I could see some places at 1 to 3 inches of snow and that would especially be true of upper Maryland. It is highly dependent on how explosive the storm is off the North Carolina coast. If it explodes sooner than thought, we could see a more widespread event.
So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 2 to 4 inches. North of this should see a lot more.
After this storm bombs in the Northeast it could be a factor in setting up a better winter storm pattern early next week.
After the event it also looks to be COLD. Also, January as a whole looks like it is going to be very cold from what I can see at this point.
Things could change and if they do I will update.
All for now.
Concerning the upcoming winter weather threat:
I am sure of a few things:
1. The Southeastern Third of VA will mainly see rain from the upcoming event
2. Rain will be mixed in with snow and sleet and maybe pockets of freezing rain for most the middle third with transitions to rain and then maybe back to snow at the end.
3. It is the Northwestern third of VA and Western 2/3rds of Maryland that leave me scratching my head! I am now thinking we *COULD* see some accumulating snows.. maybe a couple of inches. The further north you are, the more the possibilities. At a maximum I could see some places at 1 to 3 inches of snow and that would especially be true of upper Maryland. It is highly dependent on how explosive the storm is off the North Carolina coast. If it explodes sooner than thought, we could see a more widespread event.
So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 2 to 4 inches. North of this should see a lot more.
After this storm bombs in the Northeast it could be a factor in setting up a better winter storm pattern early next week.
After the event it also looks to be COLD. Also, January as a whole looks like it is going to be very cold from what I can see at this point.
Things could change and if they do I will update.
All for now.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Snow threat light at this point
There will be a storm later this week, but it now looks light at best.
This would be Thursday. It also is likely that many will see some snow
transition to a cold rain. It is possible that this could change back
over to a bit of Snow thursday night. There remains some uncertainty
about all of this so stay tuned.
This would be Thursday. It also is likely that many will see some snow
transition to a cold rain. It is possible that this could change back
over to a bit of Snow thursday night. There remains some uncertainty
about all of this so stay tuned.
Today through Wednesday will be breezy and very cold! Temps will be in
the 30 to 40 degree range for highs and winds could cause wind chill
advisories. Temps will continue cold Thursday, but just warm enough so
that rain will become a part of that forecast.
After Friday even colder air may pay a visit.
--
Sent from my mobile device
Sunday, December 27, 2009
What about the snow?
Snow chances are there late in the week, but it is a mess figuring out
what Low will produce the snow! I also expect that big cities will mix
or be a lot of rain. Colder air is looming. More late tonight!
what Low will produce the snow! I also expect that big cities will mix
or be a lot of rain. Colder air is looming. More late tonight!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Rain winding down - Some snow showers Sunday Night - cold week - Winter Storm possible
Merry Christmas! I decided not to post the last few days, and I am sorry to all that read regularly! We had a forecast close to what I originally had forecasted, but some areas did not see any frozen precip like I thought. Rains ended up somewhat lighter for some, but here in Loudoun I am seeing a flood warning this morning. A lot of the snow has melted and the piles are all that is leftover. Today will see rains end in the north and cloudy skies slowly clear. Tonight's lows will be the 20s and 30s for most. Highs tomorrow will be relatively mild with the 40s and 50s! Tomorrow night the upper support that caused the Christmas Blizzard in the middle of the country will move through and a few snow showers could occur in the Northern part of Virginia and Maryland. This week will be pretty cold. The next event will be interesting and will bring a snow chance especially west if I-95 for Northern Virginia and definitely snow in the Mountains. This one is not clear cut! There are several things. First the cold air will be more marginal which will be an issue along I-95 at first, but colder air will work in and send the temps cold enough for snow to start advancing eastward. The track of the low will make it a bit tough as well. Because the upper levels will not be as cold, the ratios for the snow to liquid will not be as high as last storm. Then, what system will end up being the one that consolidates and moves up the coast. It could be New Year's eve, but it could be a few days later! I think this will come into focus over the next few days.
Details will be worked out the next few days.
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
Details will be worked out the next few days.
All for now!
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Tuesday, December 22, 2009
A little more complicated Thursday into Friday - Flooding rains possible - Cold continues - Warm or Cold after New Years
Weather is hard to pin down for Friday. As of now I am certain some freezing rain and sleet will occur in the valleys and most places that have snow pack may see some sleet at the onset of the pecip. The warm air should overwhelm the colder air and turn the sleet and freezing rain to rain for most places except the Blue Ridge valleys. This will need some monitoring as there may be some slippery roads. Interestingly enough, as cold air filters in at the end of the storm, a turn to snow may occur across the northern areas Saturday! The only accumulations would be the mountains.
I have been repeating the same thing over and over and I cannot stress it enough... clear out paths away from your house so that the melting snow and now rain can drain away from your house. If you have not done this, resolve to do it today. People in town home communities should make sure that the drains are free so that the rain can drain and will not cause pools of water that could flood!
What does the future hold? I am now not so sure of the Arctic outbreak I was before. There are some other signs of a relaxing of the pattern and maybe some warming the first week or two of January! So what will it be? I am not as clear as I was and will have more thoughts in the next several days.
To see a cool Picture of the recent Blizzard from space check out http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/12/east-coast-blizzard-from-space?npu=1&mbid=yhp
So to sum up - Valleys and northern regions should see a glaze of some ice Friday - likely a winter weather advisory criteria, but I would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches posted first Thursday Morning for Friday in Areas along the Immediate Piedmont and mountains of areas from Roanoke to the Pennsylvania/Maryland Border! I am a little more worried about flooding at this point than freezing rain and sleet, but that could change some.
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
I have been repeating the same thing over and over and I cannot stress it enough... clear out paths away from your house so that the melting snow and now rain can drain away from your house. If you have not done this, resolve to do it today. People in town home communities should make sure that the drains are free so that the rain can drain and will not cause pools of water that could flood!
What does the future hold? I am now not so sure of the Arctic outbreak I was before. There are some other signs of a relaxing of the pattern and maybe some warming the first week or two of January! So what will it be? I am not as clear as I was and will have more thoughts in the next several days.
To see a cool Picture of the recent Blizzard from space check out http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/12/east-coast-blizzard-from-space?npu=1&mbid=yhp
So to sum up - Valleys and northern regions should see a glaze of some ice Friday - likely a winter weather advisory criteria, but I would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches posted first Thursday Morning for Friday in Areas along the Immediate Piedmont and mountains of areas from Roanoke to the Pennsylvania/Maryland Border! I am a little more worried about flooding at this point than freezing rain and sleet, but that could change some.
All for now!
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Monday, December 21, 2009
Update on Thursday and Friday - Week overall looks cold and sunny - Serious cold could be on the horizon!
Temps will be mid 30s to mid 40s for most of the week until Friday. It looks like the cold air damming will be strong enough for a period of sleet and freezing rain Thursday Night into Friday morning. Rains on Friday may be pretty heavy. As I stated after the storm you really do need to make sure that water can drain away from the house. With Friday being Christmas the last thing you want to be doing is going outside and clearing snow from the drains!
As for the future, a very, very, very cold arctic outbreak could be on the doorstep around the new year. This could be preceded by another significant winter storm!
All for now!
As for the future, a very, very, very cold arctic outbreak could be on the doorstep around the new year. This could be preceded by another significant winter storm!
All for now!
Sunday, December 20, 2009
BLIZZARD OF 2009
i got 20.5 inches here in dundalk md, BWI got 21.1 inches what a whopper of a storm. now we have a different type of storm for xmas eve and day. im thinking snow to start, then a mix to rain. but 6 days away and anything can happen
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Storm winding down! What a whopper! What is up next?
I am somewhere around 22 to 25 inches here in Sterling. Light snow will end in the next few hours. Travel is terrible! The snow is so deep and uniform that it is had to distinguish the road from the median. My friend does plowing and he reports flipped cars all over the place. PLEASE BE SAFE.
Cold weather will stick through the week. Slight warming by Thursday and Friday.
People have been wondering about the potential storm late this coming week. As of now I see it being a mix of snow, sleet and rain at first and then rain. I now think Christmas may be a foggy for us as the snow keeps the ground cold but warm air comes up over top and rains on our snow! A white Christmas, but rain on top. This COULD change and I will let you know.
As for the longer range, there are indications the pattern should be favorable for another winter storm before the New Year. Though it may be significant, with the storm we just had many had their entire season average of snow and then some! And by the way, it is still fall! Meteorological winter did begin on December 1st!
Back to the current situation:
1. Be careful shoveling
2. Check on neighbors and elderly.
3. Tomorrow take a shovel and make paths away from your house to let the melting snow run off away from the house.
4. I recommend pulling snow away from doors and windows, and again, get paths for the rain to go away from these
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
Cold weather will stick through the week. Slight warming by Thursday and Friday.
People have been wondering about the potential storm late this coming week. As of now I see it being a mix of snow, sleet and rain at first and then rain. I now think Christmas may be a foggy for us as the snow keeps the ground cold but warm air comes up over top and rains on our snow! A white Christmas, but rain on top. This COULD change and I will let you know.
As for the longer range, there are indications the pattern should be favorable for another winter storm before the New Year. Though it may be significant, with the storm we just had many had their entire season average of snow and then some! And by the way, it is still fall! Meteorological winter did begin on December 1st!
Back to the current situation:
1. Be careful shoveling
2. Check on neighbors and elderly.
3. Tomorrow take a shovel and make paths away from your house to let the melting snow run off away from the house.
4. I recommend pulling snow away from doors and windows, and again, get paths for the rain to go away from these
All for now!
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Blizzard warnings expanded westward to immediate DC metro and Baltimore areas
Maybe I was a little robust on the 20 to 30 inches.. many will see the 12 to 20 which is closer to what I posted on my site last night!
Snow is heavy in areas of Northern Virginia this morning! Snow has accumulated around 10 inches here in Sterling. Many reporting the same.
Awesome sight!
Snow will slacken a lot southern half of state. As the low off the coast continues to wrap up the winds will start to be an issue. Snows will continue north part of VA, MD, DC, and up to New England.
Not to look to far beyond the current situation, but another snow could occur for CHRISTMAS day as well.
If you are a weather nut like me, this is FUN!
Snow is heavy in areas of Northern Virginia this morning! Snow has accumulated around 10 inches here in Sterling. Many reporting the same.
Awesome sight!
Snow will slacken a lot southern half of state. As the low off the coast continues to wrap up the winds will start to be an issue. Snows will continue north part of VA, MD, DC, and up to New England.
Not to look to far beyond the current situation, but another snow could occur for CHRISTMAS day as well.
If you are a weather nut like me, this is FUN!
Friday, December 18, 2009
Snow is doing better than thought! WIDESPREAD 20 to 30 Inches!
Well, here we go with a HUGE storm.Many areas will be measuring in feet! Of note, Blizzard warnings posted east of DC. I will not be surprised to see more Blizzard warnings by morning!
Holiday Blizzard of 2009!
All for now!
Holiday Blizzard of 2009!
All for now!
Final Call - THIS WILL BE HISTORIC
My map is not great!
Many will see 10 to as much as 20 inches in the red. Pink will see many 8 to 12 inches. Then we have mixing in eastern sections will mix with rain and sleet. West will see a cut off due to dry air! The red areas could see thunder snow. As the storm gets cranking north of Virginia and the DelMarVA a blizzard could occur!
SNOW totals I predicted may be half the total!
Add 6 to 10 inches below! WOW!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Thursday, December 17, 2009
First Guess on this storm. (I am cutting totals some - models do show a lot more than this!)
First Guess:
Virginia
Roanoke: 10 - 12"
Charlottesville : 12 - 14"
Fredericksburg: 12 - 14" some 18"
Dulles - 6 - 10"
Washington DC - 8 to 12"
Richmond: 6 - 10"
Maryland:
Baltimore: 8 - 12"
Montgomery County - 6-10"
North Carolina:
Asheville: 8 - 12"
Boone: 10 - 12"
First Guess:
Virginia
Roanoke: 10 - 12"
Charlottesville : 12 - 14"
Fredericksburg: 12 - 14" some 18"
Dulles - 6 - 10"
Washington DC - 8 to 12"
Richmond: 6 - 10"
Maryland:
Baltimore: 8 - 12"
Montgomery County - 6-10"
North Carolina:
Asheville: 8 - 12"
Boone: 10 - 12"
Major/Historic Winter Storm! TIME CORRECTION!
Major/Historic Winter Storm!
CORRECTION ON TIME! This will be Friday into Saturday!With the Model trends and the increased consensus on a major winter storm, I have the Second alert of the season! This could be Historic with amounts approaching 20 inches in parts of Virginia and Maryland!
Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!
A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.
Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.
A lot to look at and watch!
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Major/Historic Winter Storm!
With the Model trends and the increased consensus on a major winter storm, I have the Second alert of the season! This could be Historic with amounts approaching 20 inches in parts of Virginia and Maryland! This will be starting Saturday Night and go through Sunday.
Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!
A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.
Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.
A lot to look at and watch!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
If anyone needs a person to do snow plowing in Northern Virginia (Sterling to Leesburg area) let me know!
Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!
A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.
Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.
A lot to look at and watch!
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If anyone needs a person to do snow plowing in Northern Virginia (Sterling to Leesburg area) let me know!
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Winter storm seems likely
A Winter storm is likely to affect the mid atlantic Saturday and
Sunday. It is possible some totals could approach a foot or more for
some places. This is a preliminary outlook and I will have more
analysis later tonight and tomorrow!
Sunday. It is possible some totals could approach a foot or more for
some places. This is a preliminary outlook and I will have more
analysis later tonight and tomorrow!
--
Sent from my mobile device
OFF TOPIC! My Company is Hiring!
Not trying to get off subject! We do have much to talk about as more and more we appear lining up for a storm this coming weekend! I do know the state of the economy and we do have many positions open at my company (Plateau Systems) here in Arlington, VA. If interested, let me know! There is a Contact Me in teh left column, leave a comment, do what you can.
http://www.plateau.com/about/careers.htm
Thanks!
I will post later about the wintry weather!
Jimmy
http://www.plateau.com/about/careers.htm
Thanks!
I will post later about the wintry weather!
Jimmy
Breezy and cold - a southern Snow!
Today will be cold and breezy temps will likely make it to the upper
30s North and upper 40s south. Cold conditions continue tomorrow bit
breezes lessen. Then we have a southern low to consider late Saturday
into Sunday. As of now I am suspecting the southeastern third of VA
and much of NC as well as far western SC COULD see a major or even
Historic snow storm this Saturday Eastern VA could also be brushed by
some light snow. Northern VA and MD are unlikely to see the storm the
way it looks now. If the Southern Low happens to form a bit more north
or a phasing of systems occurs (possible) more of the region needs to
be ready for significant snow. A lot to watch at this point. After
the system we stay cold and a white Christmas may occur for some!
30s North and upper 40s south. Cold conditions continue tomorrow bit
breezes lessen. Then we have a southern low to consider late Saturday
into Sunday. As of now I am suspecting the southeastern third of VA
and much of NC as well as far western SC COULD see a major or even
Historic snow storm this Saturday Eastern VA could also be brushed by
some light snow. Northern VA and MD are unlikely to see the storm the
way it looks now. If the Southern Low happens to form a bit more north
or a phasing of systems occurs (possible) more of the region needs to
be ready for significant snow. A lot to watch at this point. After
the system we stay cold and a white Christmas may occur for some!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Mild one more day - Much colder rest of week - weekend snow?
This will be the last mild day of the week and maybe for a while. Highs will be in the 50 to 60 degree range. A few showers over the mountains will turn to some snow showers out that way. Then we have Arctic air the rest of the week with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s at best. There are some forecast models bringing a southern storm into the region this weekend and providing a significant winter storm. My gut would be to believe them after what has been a non-stop parade of southern storms during the weekends for the last several weeks, but I need a little more convincing before I am sold. Even colder air looks to arrive Monday and indications that maybe we could have more winter weather some time next week! That may mean some will see a white Christmas.
All I have for now!
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Monday, December 14, 2009
Fog and freezing fog. Mild today and tomorrow-more chill after that
Be careful this morning. Fog is freezing and that is causing black
ice. Today will be mild with temps upper 40s to upper 50s. Tomorrow
will be even milder with highs 50 to 60. A strong cold front will come
through with breezy and colder temps returning by Wednesday. As
mentioned last night, an Alberta clipper *MAY* visit and cause some
light snow Friday night. Otherwise a much drier pattern has taken
shape, on forecast models at least, at this time. All for now!
ice. Today will be mild with temps upper 40s to upper 50s. Tomorrow
will be even milder with highs 50 to 60. A strong cold front will come
through with breezy and colder temps returning by Wednesday. As
mentioned last night, an Alberta clipper *MAY* visit and cause some
light snow Friday night. Otherwise a much drier pattern has taken
shape, on forecast models at least, at this time. All for now!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Sunday, December 13, 2009
FOG HORNS NEEDED! Cool to cold.. SNOW Where are you?
So, we had some ice this morning in areas. Heavy rains fell again and it has been so wet this fall! With the cold rainy ground and the temps dropping to the dew point fog is a plenty! I was just driving in it and it was tough to see! The rains are gone for a day! A strong cold front will come through Tuesday and drop temps back to 5 to 10 degrees below normal. There is a possible Alberta Clipper Friday into Saturday and cause a small amount of snow in the region. That is not for certain. The colder conditions and the pattern in general does show the possibilities of a bigger storm at some point. That being said, it is not ideal and so forecast models continue to switch on their forecasts from run to run.
I have nothing new to share for now!
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I have nothing new to share for now!
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Just a reminder on where you can Find Mid Atlantic Weather!
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Brrr. Surprising warming so we get Mix to Rain Sunday - Rain and then cold again next week
The evolution of this pattern has been difficult to get correct. We have an arctic high over us now that is actually modified from its coldest time. It is headed straight though town though and a "warming" in the atmosphere will make moisture falling Sunday change from a mix of snow, then sleet, and rain (light) to s steadier rain all day Sunday. Temps in the 40s Monday and Tuesday when more rain arrives ahead of another arctic shot that will be similar to this one. So temps back down into the 30s.
Though potential showed for maybe a snow next week, this has really backed off. That being said, we have not had too many days between rain/snow events since fall so things may change.
Have to run! Stay warm!
Though potential showed for maybe a snow next week, this has really backed off. That being said, we have not had too many days between rain/snow events since fall so things may change.
Have to run! Stay warm!
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Colder air coming - Will it last? Snow/Mix possible this weekend - Long term!
The cold air is about to come through and it will feel wintry tomorrow and Friday. What will transpire this weekend is a bit up in the air. I am not convinced we will see much of anything, but one model is still showing snow and a mix for the region. I will continue to watch.
Next week I am in a quandary. There are signs that maybe a big storm *COULD* happen and cause winter weather for the region. The latest models have backed off on this idea.
For now, cold and windy tomorrow and continued cold through Saturday.
Next week I am in a quandary. There are signs that maybe a big storm *COULD* happen and cause winter weather for the region. The latest models have backed off on this idea.
For now, cold and windy tomorrow and continued cold through Saturday.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Some wintry weather - More for Mountains - Heavy rains - weekend more snow
There are winter storm watches up for parts of the area. If you look at HPC's outline for where a quarter inch or more of ice may form you get an idea of where I too think things will be bad. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif . There are a few things that make me a bit "worried" about more icing. The main threat would be a coastal low which MAY keep colder air around longer in this event. I will say though, when we get such heavy rains (I see 1 to 2 inches and even more in spots) then the colder surface is overwhelmed by the warmer rains. This is not always true, but does tend to be the case. Rain will end tomorrow and that will be the last Mild day for a while. The Arctic express is coming and temps will fall to very cold conditions Thursday straight through Monday and beyond. highs will be the 30s to low 40s most places during this time. Winds will be fairly strong Thursday as well which will make it blustery. A southern storm system could make its presence known this weekend and cause snow and a mix of precipitation for many due to the colder air. I do NOT expect this to be a big event. Due to some warming during the storm, snow will mix and change to rain areas south and east of the Fall Line.. Areas west of the I-95 corridor will see snow and then rain and snow mix.. better chances of just snow to the north, but also lighter amounts of precip.
So for today. Areas of the Shenandoah will see snow and sleet change to freezing rain and could accumulate to Winter Storm Warning criteria north of Harrisonburg area up to the PA/MD border. The immediate Piedmont will likely see Winter Weather Advisories posted, but I am not suspecting a lot and especially less east of Rt 15. I also expect many to see sleet and rain mixed at onset and then a turnover to just rain. Rain will be heavy at times tonight.
All for now!
So for today. Areas of the Shenandoah will see snow and sleet change to freezing rain and could accumulate to Winter Storm Warning criteria north of Harrisonburg area up to the PA/MD border. The immediate Piedmont will likely see Winter Weather Advisories posted, but I am not suspecting a lot and especially less east of Rt 15. I also expect many to see sleet and rain mixed at onset and then a turnover to just rain. Rain will be heavy at times tonight.
All for now!
Monday, December 07, 2009
Cold conditions coming! Some mix and then more snow?
Cloudy skies will be common until Wednesday. Temps will continue
colder than normal with highs 40 north and around 50 south. Tomorrow
will be cooler and rain will over spread the region throughout the
day. In the immediate piedmont and mountains sleet and freezing rain
will be a threat and advisories will likely be needed. Some sleet and
freezing rain will occur up to I-95 tomorrow evening for the north
half of VA and Western MD, but heavy precipitation should not allow
for much of an issue as the upper atmosphere's warmer air warms the
rain and the surface. Temps Wednesday will be mild with 50 to 60
degrees across the region. Much colder air to follow with high 40 to
50 Thursday and 30 to 40 Friday and Saturday. A southern Storm could
bring snow for many Friday Night into Saturday!
colder than normal with highs 40 north and around 50 south. Tomorrow
will be cooler and rain will over spread the region throughout the
day. In the immediate piedmont and mountains sleet and freezing rain
will be a threat and advisories will likely be needed. Some sleet and
freezing rain will occur up to I-95 tomorrow evening for the north
half of VA and Western MD, but heavy precipitation should not allow
for much of an issue as the upper atmosphere's warmer air warms the
rain and the surface. Temps Wednesday will be mild with 50 to 60
degrees across the region. Much colder air to follow with high 40 to
50 Thursday and 30 to 40 Friday and Saturday. A southern Storm could
bring snow for many Friday Night into Saturday!
All for now!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Saturday, December 05, 2009
Friday, December 04, 2009
Snow amounts have increased
Just west of 95
Immediate piedmont now looks like 4 to 6 inches. 2 to 4 east of this.
1 to 3 inches. Warnings have been hoisted in areas!
December 5th's snow fame continues!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Potential for a real winter storm now for tomorrow!
Latest models have come in with a more serious threat of snow! Especially west of I-95! I suspect Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will be posted soon!
All for now!
All for now!
snowfall forecast
this is my snowfall forecast for the upcoming snow event on saturday.
im thinking 2-4 inches along the I95 corridor from virginia up to philly,aybe even NYC if low hugs coast. some spots locally 5 inches, less along the coast due to mixing, and less farthur west . ill up date after the runs today. but this is how i see it now.
*** LUKE***
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Models trend snowier - If models are correct
If models continue we will see a more significant snow threat with some areas seeing 2 to as much as 6 inches, especially on the grass, Saturday afternoon and into the night. This will need further watching and I will update as often as I can. I suspect many will start as rain and rain/snow mix, and then snow. Best chance of accumulations still west of I-95 and the Higher elevations of Southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina!
All for now!
Jimmy
All for now!
Jimmy
FIRST significant snows of the season if models are right!
Thinking many areas in Virginia could see 2 to maybe 4 inches of snow.
Some to see as much as 6 inches in higher elevations of Southwest VA.
More to come!
Some to see as much as 6 inches in higher elevations of Southwest VA.
More to come!
--
Sent from my mobile device
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Tornado watches in SE VA - Flood watched North VA and MD
I have been busy and needed to post sooner! Severe weather has broken out in areas. As the storm gets energized cells are rotating and have produced tornadoes today. See http://www.midatlanticweather.com/hw3.php?forecast=spcstormreportmap&date=today&usemap=eastcentral_640x480 for some reports.
Also heavy rains and winds are moving through. Flash flood watches were posted for Northern Virginia and Maryland.
Please listen to news and radio outlets for updates, watches, or warnings!
All for now!
Also heavy rains and winds are moving through. Flash flood watches were posted for Northern Virginia and Maryland.
Please listen to news and radio outlets for updates, watches, or warnings!
All for now!
Snow threat SW VA down into Western NC - Light snow possible elsewhere
first we have a potent systems coming through the region the next 24 hours. rain and Thunder which is causing severe weather to break out in the south. Rain totals in the 1 to 2 inch range seem likely and in a relatively short amount of time. Winds will also be high in the higher elevations and could be pulled down by heavier showers or storms - so do not be surprised to see some isolated severe storms scattered through NC and VA overnight.
We have a definite shot of colder air that will arrive Friday into Saturday and a wave of energy that will produce a Low pressure to the south. Areas south of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville look the best for getting precipitation and it could mix with or change to snow, especially west of I-95 and then back South west into the higher Piedmont areas of NC, SC and even GA. Yes a more southern system appears to be in the making. Areas along and east of I-5 in these regions could see a mix or even some periods of snow, but it is warm at the surface so this will be what I call "white rain" for many. Areas west of I-95 and further south could see some accumulations and i would not be surprised to see a 1 to 3" with isolated 4" spots from Southwestern VA down into Western NC and SC.
Further north, rain and snow showers will likely visit Saturday but it does not look too potent.. the further north, the less the chance to see anything.
STILL early on this so stay tuned!
All for now!
Blogger at http://midatlanticweather.blogspot.com
We have a definite shot of colder air that will arrive Friday into Saturday and a wave of energy that will produce a Low pressure to the south. Areas south of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville look the best for getting precipitation and it could mix with or change to snow, especially west of I-95 and then back South west into the higher Piedmont areas of NC, SC and even GA. Yes a more southern system appears to be in the making. Areas along and east of I-5 in these regions could see a mix or even some periods of snow, but it is warm at the surface so this will be what I call "white rain" for many. Areas west of I-95 and further south could see some accumulations and i would not be surprised to see a 1 to 3" with isolated 4" spots from Southwestern VA down into Western NC and SC.
Further north, rain and snow showers will likely visit Saturday but it does not look too potent.. the further north, the less the chance to see anything.
STILL early on this so stay tuned!
All for now!
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UPCOMING STORM POSSIBILITYS
well first off we have a possible " storm" on the dec 5th-6th time frame. the euro , cmc, want to take it out to sea, the GFS brings at a little more west, the nam out to 84 hrs keepos it closer to coast, so with the way the models are all over the play, have to wait a day or two. then there is another possibility on dec 9th-12 time frame. thats 7+ days out so we will look at that in a few days as it gets closer. over 7 days out the models will be all over the place till we get closer. thanks more to come :)
*** LUKE***
Snow shot? Looks possible!
Seeing possibilities still coming together! Could see a few inches in some parts. I am not expecting a big system at this time. There are a few things that are peaking my interest. Some SE bias on the current model may mean more moisture.
What do I expect. Some snow! YES.. Some snow areas west of I-95 from about Richmond up to the DC and Baltimore area. Some rain to tart and a mix and turnover for many areas even along I-95. Areas that are mainly snow could see some accumulation on grassy areas.
A lot of details to be worked out. If things get more moist I am going to need to get a little more excited! I am just happy to see a snow chance on the December 5th date! It has snowed on that date a lot in the last 7 years!
All for now!
What do I expect. Some snow! YES.. Some snow areas west of I-95 from about Richmond up to the DC and Baltimore area. Some rain to tart and a mix and turnover for many areas even along I-95. Areas that are mainly snow could see some accumulation on grassy areas.
A lot of details to be worked out. If things get more moist I am going to need to get a little more excited! I am just happy to see a snow chance on the December 5th date! It has snowed on that date a lot in the last 7 years!
All for now!
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Snow risk update
There are definite trends towards showers this Saturday. If you
noticed, most forecasts have a risk now that did not even late last
evening. How much? Well I suspect we will see just a light mix of rain
and snow west of I-95 especially saturday evening. Could it be bigger?
Some models say yes. Could it be nothing? Yes. Many models say that
too! More to come including a late evening real post for a change!
noticed, most forecasts have a risk now that did not even late last
evening. How much? Well I suspect we will see just a light mix of rain
and snow west of I-95 especially saturday evening. Could it be bigger?
Some models say yes. Could it be nothing? Yes. Many models say that
too! More to come including a late evening real post for a change!
--
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Monday, November 30, 2009
First snow threat of the season?!
Some snow *COULD* mske it up this way this coming Friday Night... More to come!
--
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009
lukes winter 2009-2010 forecast!!
i think, the mid atlantic will have colder than normal temps and above normal precip, whether that means above normal snows depends largely on the track. i think with the light to mod elnino, we will have an active storm track to the south. with the way the pdo and soi are, and with the elnino rising slightly then expected to fall off after december, that could mean a colder winter then weve seen . and if we get the souther track going and more noreasters, we could get 150 to 200% of normal snowfall. but alot has to happen, but the potentail is there, some analogs used by j bastardi, for the up coming winter are a like ness to 63-64, 77-78, and 2002-2003. so i guess we have to wait an see. but i do think we will have at least our normal snowfall, maybe more. and a colder than normall winter. alot depends of track.
***luke***
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Historic Nor'easter
This is no small system! Storm warnings, High Wind warning, Flood watches and Warnings, and, yes, high elevation snows!
Parts of Eastern NC have already hit 8 to 10 inches of rain, and now I am thinking areas could see 15"+ amounts.
Winds will really start to crank up overnight into tomorrow. Flooding rains will be along and east of I -95 for the most part, although some rains have been in the 3 to 5 inch amounts in Southern Virginia.
Coastal flooding will be moderate to severe!
A state of Emergency has been declared for Virginia.
All in all, please listen to news and weather outlets for watches and warnings!
You can post Observations here:
http://forum.midatlanticweather.com/index.php?topic=1654.0
Stay safe!
Jimmy
Parts of Eastern NC have already hit 8 to 10 inches of rain, and now I am thinking areas could see 15"+ amounts.
Winds will really start to crank up overnight into tomorrow. Flooding rains will be along and east of I -95 for the most part, although some rains have been in the 3 to 5 inch amounts in Southern Virginia.
Coastal flooding will be moderate to severe!
A state of Emergency has been declared for Virginia.
All in all, please listen to news and weather outlets for watches and warnings!
You can post Observations here:
http://forum.midatlanticweather.com/index.php?topic=1654.0
Stay safe!
Jimmy
Very Heavy rainfall and windy conditions!
I hinted at this Sunday, but have been tied up and unable to update!
As the remnants of Ida and other pieces of energy all combine, a very powerful Nor'easter will slowly develop, deepen, and move slowly off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will mean prolonged rains, especially Southeastern and Eastern Virginia, North Carlina (more east than west), South Carolina, and Georgia. For 3 to 5 inches of rain will be common with areas receiving as much as 9 to 10 inches of rain totals along the coastal plains and along the shore. High winds will cause higher than normal tides with coastal floods and also beach erosion and rough seas. People should stay tuned to news and radio outlets for a full run down of weather issues and do not ever attempt to ride through water! This is a serious situation! Please be careful!
The Further North you are the less rainfall. Also Areas along and west of the Mountains will not see as much rains. The Piedmont and east will see the rains, and the closer to the coast you are, the heavier it will be.
All for now!
As the remnants of Ida and other pieces of energy all combine, a very powerful Nor'easter will slowly develop, deepen, and move slowly off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will mean prolonged rains, especially Southeastern and Eastern Virginia, North Carlina (more east than west), South Carolina, and Georgia. For 3 to 5 inches of rain will be common with areas receiving as much as 9 to 10 inches of rain totals along the coastal plains and along the shore. High winds will cause higher than normal tides with coastal floods and also beach erosion and rough seas. People should stay tuned to news and radio outlets for a full run down of weather issues and do not ever attempt to ride through water! This is a serious situation! Please be careful!
The Further North you are the less rainfall. Also Areas along and west of the Mountains will not see as much rains. The Piedmont and east will see the rains, and the closer to the coast you are, the heavier it will be.
All for now!
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Nice weather Today and tomorrow! Warmish - BIG RAIN THREAT
I haven't got a lot of time. Please enjoy today and tomorrow as temps soar to the upper 60s and even upper 70s for some.
A lot more concern rising on a Ida's influence on a Nor'easter type system including very heavy rains!
All for now!
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Jimmy's Winter 2009 - 2010 Outlook!
Let me tell you how I look at the forecast.
First, patterns up until now.
We have seen a lot of systems along the Eastern US this year. We have been wet and fairly cool this fall. This would be a favorable sign for a more snowy forecast, but I do not expect an extremely snowy forecast like AccuWeather (http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?partner=&traveler=0&date=2009-10-14_1255&month=10&year=2009). Several others are on board with more snow possibilities! Raleigh weather (AKA Allan Huffman) http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m10d30-Winter-forecast-200910-Part-1, Larry Cosgrove from WeatherAmerica, and the Capital Weather Gang ( http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/11/capital_weather_gang_2009-10_w.html )
We have some other thoughts as well. I know 2 pro-forecasters calling for warmer than normal and a normal forecast preliminarily by Dave Tgoleris at WxRisk - http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/winter0910/PUBLIC.htm
So what am I really thinking -
El Nino - what will you do! The warm body of water in the Pacific is the wildest card of the season. I am more and more convinced that feature will stomp my hopes of a snowy winter for the region!
Things I like for Snow -
1. Pattern has been showing good storms from Southern origins
2. Colder air has been locked in place a few times from some blocking patterns - the blocks of North American Oscillations and the Pacific North American areas have been favorable.
3. Snow cover is steadily advancing and the best I have seen this early in several years - http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
4. Some Sea Surface Temps off the Atlantic Northeast.
Things I am thinking counter high snow
1. El Nino
2. A lot of soil moisture (WxRisk covers this in his forecast)
3. Despite southern storms, I have seen quite a few main lows head west of mountains, which means warmer aloft and ice or rain.
So For Now -
I call for a little above normal snow and normal to slightly above normal temperatures - I am banking on a few larger snow storms in cold spells for above normal snow
Would not be surprised to see a warmer than normal end of winter if El Nino continues to strengthen
Would also expect big swings in temps so snow will not be on the ground a long time this winter.
That is my thinking - I am not a Meteorologist so this is just based on what I see, have read, and El Nino being a factor!
All for now!
First, patterns up until now.
We have seen a lot of systems along the Eastern US this year. We have been wet and fairly cool this fall. This would be a favorable sign for a more snowy forecast, but I do not expect an extremely snowy forecast like AccuWeather (http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?partner=&traveler=0&date=2009-10-14_1255&month=10&year=2009). Several others are on board with more snow possibilities! Raleigh weather (AKA Allan Huffman) http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m10d30-Winter-forecast-200910-Part-1, Larry Cosgrove from WeatherAmerica, and the Capital Weather Gang ( http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/11/capital_weather_gang_2009-10_w.html )
We have some other thoughts as well. I know 2 pro-forecasters calling for warmer than normal and a normal forecast preliminarily by Dave Tgoleris at WxRisk - http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/winter0910/PUBLIC.htm
So what am I really thinking -
El Nino - what will you do! The warm body of water in the Pacific is the wildest card of the season. I am more and more convinced that feature will stomp my hopes of a snowy winter for the region!
Things I like for Snow -
1. Pattern has been showing good storms from Southern origins
2. Colder air has been locked in place a few times from some blocking patterns - the blocks of North American Oscillations and the Pacific North American areas have been favorable.
3. Snow cover is steadily advancing and the best I have seen this early in several years - http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
4. Some Sea Surface Temps off the Atlantic Northeast.
Things I am thinking counter high snow
1. El Nino
2. A lot of soil moisture (WxRisk covers this in his forecast)
3. Despite southern storms, I have seen quite a few main lows head west of mountains, which means warmer aloft and ice or rain.
So For Now -
I call for a little above normal snow and normal to slightly above normal temperatures - I am banking on a few larger snow storms in cold spells for above normal snow
Would not be surprised to see a warmer than normal end of winter if El Nino continues to strengthen
Would also expect big swings in temps so snow will not be on the ground a long time this winter.
That is my thinking - I am not a Meteorologist so this is just based on what I see, have read, and El Nino being a factor!
All for now!
Breezy Night - Cool Friday - Sunny Weekend -
Breezes are kicking up thanks to a Low off of Nova Scotia that is really starting to deepen. With breezes not much of a chance for frost as has been the case for many recently.
A cool Friday with highs not cracking the 40s for most areas in the north and mountains. Cool night for Friday night. After a few weekends of rainy weather, we look like sunny skies and seasonable cool temps!
A nice day Monday with highs in the mid and upper 60s with some 70s likely. A cold front will cross regions and bring highs back down to 50s and low 60s the rest of the week. Looks fairly dry for now!
So what is my winter forecast?
Separate post to follow!
All for now!
A cool Friday with highs not cracking the 40s for most areas in the north and mountains. Cool night for Friday night. After a few weekends of rainy weather, we look like sunny skies and seasonable cool temps!
A nice day Monday with highs in the mid and upper 60s with some 70s likely. A cold front will cross regions and bring highs back down to 50s and low 60s the rest of the week. Looks fairly dry for now!
So what is my winter forecast?
Separate post to follow!
All for now!
Cool - breezy - few showers - pretty dry
Today will be cool and an increase in clouds and breezes. As a
disturbance moves though some sprinkles will be possible. This will be
especially true for northern areas of VA, in MD and PA. Winds will
also increase.
Cool 40s tomorrow north and mid 50s south.
disturbance moves though some sprinkles will be possible. This will be
especially true for northern areas of VA, in MD and PA. Winds will
also increase.
Cool 40s tomorrow north and mid 50s south.
A dry sunny weekend looks to be in the works. Warmer conditions Monday
and then seasonal until mid next week.
Tropics spun up Hurricane Ida which is bearing down on Nicaragua this morning.
All for now.
--
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